RNC keeps the South Carolina presidential primary First-in-the-South

Ian Grenier at The Post & Courier in Charleston, SC shares the reaction from the Palmetto state to South Carolina Republicans retaining their early position on the 2028 Republican presidential primary calendar:

"South Carolina’s Republican presidential primary will remain “first in the South” and fourth overall in 2028 after the Republican National Committee this week agreed to keep its existing early-state order.

"An exact date for the contest here has not been set, but it will follow Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada, and will probably again be held in mid to late February.

"'I’m extremely happy about that, it’s what we expected to happen, and it’s what’s worked for every cycle basically for the last 40 years,' S.C. Republican Party Chairman Drew McKissick said.

"The calendar, approved as Republicans met in Dallas for an unusual midterm convention focused around President Donald Trump, confirms the Palmetto State will be a key primary battleground for both parties in 2028."

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Noteworthy: As noted previously, the big news, to the extent it is big, is that South Carolina has formally shifted in the Republican National Committee rules from the third contest in the order to the fourth of four carve-out states in the early window of the 2028 Republican presidential primary calendar before Super Tuesday. The change appears permanent in 2028 where it was voluntary on the part of Palmetto state Republicans for 2024.

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Related at FHQ Plus (subscription)...

Is calendar chaos in the offing for 2028? 

The notion is neither farfetched nor on anyone’s radar as the focus shifts to the Republicans’ calendar

Iowa Republican caucuses remain at the head of the 2028 presidential primary queue

Tom Barton at The Gazette in Cedar Rapids, IA with the latest on the Republican National Committee locking in Iowa as the first-in-the-nation contest for 2028:

"Iowa will retain its first-in-the-nation position in the Republican presidential nominating process in 2028, preserving the state’s influential role in GOP presidential politics even as national Democrats again move forward without Iowa in their early-state lineup.

"The Republican National Committee approved its presidential nominating calendar Thursday during the party’s gathering in Dallas, maintaining the traditional “carve-out” states with Iowa first, followed by New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina, according to the Republican Party of Iowa.

"The vote followed approval Wednesday by the RNC Rules Committee and comes after months of work by a committee led by Republican Party of Iowa Chairman Jeff Kaufmann.

“'I’m pleased to announce that Iowa’s First in the Nation status is officially preserved through 2028,' Kaufmann said in a statement. 'As Chair of the RNC’s Presidential Nominating Process Committee, I led the effort to keep Iowa first and protect the carve-out system. Democrats may have abandoned Iowa, but Republicans under President Trump and RNC Chairman Gruters are committed to ensuring the Iowa caucuses remain a defining part of the presidential nominating process.'"

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Noteworthy: This has not exactly been a mystery. Republicans in the traditional early states and in and around the RNC have signaled that the status quo calendar was likely to be maintained for the 2028. And the national party has now confirmed that at its summer meeting in Dallas, TX. The caucuses in Iowa will once again lead off the 2028 Republican primary calendar followed by contests in New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina. 

The order suggests that South Carolina Republicans have permanently ceded the third slot on the calendar to Nevada, something that was not in the national party rules for 2024, but Palmetto state Republicans voluntarily gave up for a spot right before Super Tuesday. That is a fairly significant change to what had been a longstanding alignment in the Republican calendar since 1980. South Carolina had not only been the first-in-the-South state in the Republican process -- it retains that position -- but also the third state. The RNC rules now imply the primary in the Palmetto state will fall fourth in the order. 

[FHQ uses terms like imply and suggests because, unlike the Democratic Party rules, the Republican rules do not give specific dates for these early contests. There is a list of carve-out states and therein an implicit order. But it is not mandated as South Carolina Republicans showed in shifting to fourth from third in the list for 2024.]

But while those questions have been addressed about the Republicans' 2028 primary calendar, other important ones remain unanswered for the time being.

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Related at FHQ Plus (subscription)...

Is calendar chaos in the offing for 2028? 

The notion is neither farfetched nor on anyone’s radar as the focus shifts to the Republicans’ calendar

"SC Democrats set their presidential primary date. When will GOP contest happen?"

Joseph Bustos at The State in Columbia, SC checks in on when Palmetto state Republicans might schedule their presidential primary now that South Carolina Democrats have their date:

"With South Carolina Democrats planning to hold their presidential primary Jan. 22, 2028, now Republicans have to decide when they want to have their primary.

The Palmetto State will be the first in the nation primary for Democrats. South Carolina Republicans will hold the GOP’s first in the South contest.

Both primaries have proven pivotal in whom each party nominates to be president.

SC GOP Chairman Drew McKissick told reporters that he and leaders of the Republican parties in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada will meet at the Republican National Committee’s meeting in September in Dallas to discuss the calendar, including when the early window closes.

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Noteworthy: Perhaps things have changed for the 2028 cycle, but it might be a while before South Carolina Republicans weigh in on where exactly their presidential primary may be on the primary calendar for 2028. It was mid-June 2023 when the state party set the date for the 2024 cycle. And that came after much of the dust had settled on the calendar for that cycle. That has tended to be the protocol for early states, especially on the Republican side where specific dates are not spelled out in RNC rules for the early carve-outs.

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The Annotated 2028 Presidential Primary Calendar 

Tracking the evolution of the timeline of delegate selection events that will determine the next presidential nominees

"South Carolina to be first-in-the-nation for Democrats’ 2028 presidential primary calendar"

Caitlin Byrd at the Post and Courier looks at South Carolina's selection as the nation's first Democratic contest in 2028 from the Palmetto state:

"The road to the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination will begin in South Carolina.

"The Democratic National Committee’s Rules and Bylaws Committee voted July 24 to place the Palmetto State first on its 2028 nominating calendar, giving its voters the initial say in what is expected to be a sprawling and competitive primary.

"Before the vote, South Carolina Democratic Party Chair Christale Spain framed the state’s early-primary role as essential to the party’s broader ambitions in a region it has struggled to win.

“'The South is not the past. It is the future,' Spain told the committee. 'And if we are serious about changing this country, Democrats have to start winning in the South.'"

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South Carolina Democratic Party Chair Christale Spain on the selection: 

South Carolina Democrats are grateful to the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee for again selecting South Carolina to lead off the 2028 Democratic presidential primary. This decision demonstrates our party’s commitment to competing in the South and recognizes the importance of black and rural voters in shaping the Democratic Party’s future. Additionally, the committee valued our flexibility in setting the primary date and the certainty of conducting a well-run primary.

This moment belongs to the volunteers, organizers, county parties, activists, and candidates who have worked tirelessly to build our party and ensure every voice is heard. Time and time again, South Carolina Democrats have shown that we know how to choose a presidential nominee who can unite our party and win in November.

The process to determine which states will go early in the primary calendar has been extremely competitive, and we are honored to join five additional diverse states that together will lead our nominating process and deliver the strongest, most competitive nominee in 2028 that will deliver for working families across this country. Together, we are ready to deliver for the Democratic Party and the American people.

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Related at FHQ Plus (subscription)...

The Annotated 2028 Presidential Primary Calendar 

Tracking the evolution of the timeline of delegate selection events that will determine the next presidential nominees

At FHQ Plus: Leftovers: 2028 delegate allocation in the Republican presidential nomination process

Over at FHQ Plus...

In researching the recent post on the Republican early calendar rules for 2028, FHQ ran across a couple of items that, while neither fit in there, merit some mention in this space. One is minor -- South Carolina Republican allocation -- and the other, one that will likely ultimately fall into the same minor category, has major implications for how delegates will be allocated in the Republican process in 2028 as things stand now. I explore both in depth over at FHQ Plus.

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Is the early 2028 Republican presidential primary calendar set?

The national party rules seem to say yes, but...

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"Republicans are gutting southern Dem districts. Dems might front-load the South in its 2028 primaries to respond."

Lisa Kashinsky at Politico reports on the possibility of two southern states making it into the early window of the 2028 presidential primary calendar, post-Callais:

"Democrats are weighing whether they can use their 2028 primary calendar to try to rebuild their party’s strength in the South amid aggressive GOP gerrymanders.

"As Democratic National Committee members meet in D.C. this week to discuss which states will lead the next presidential nominating contest, the GOP push to dismantle majority-Black districts and dilute Democrats’ power across the South is ratcheting up the selection stakes. Some members are now advocating for two southern states to make the cut as the Callais ruling adds fresh urgency to Democrats’ long-running debate over how to amplify the voices of Black voters who have long been the party’s backbone."

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Noteworthy: A couple of thoughts about this...

1. Even before the Callais decision came down, it was true that approaching a majority of the states -- five of 12 -- that applied for a waiver from the Rules and Bylaws Committee (RBC) to hold an early contest in 2028 were from the south. That has not changed following the decision. As I said at our sister site, FHQ Plus back in January: "The only other mysteries are if there will be a fifth state and which state that may be. The overrepresentation of southern states in the pool may give the region an advantage in claiming a second spot among the would-be five early states. Granted, that is far from guaranteed." Post-Callais, that overrepresentation of the South positions the DNC to make a statement with the calendar. [Side note: Bear in mind also that the DNC attempted to get two southern states into the early window for 2024 as well.]
2. As a counterpoint, however, look at the 2028 presidential primary calendar and consider the southern states that have applied for early state status...

• North Carolina? Super Tuesday.
• Tennessee? Super Tuesday.
• Virginia? Super Tuesday.
• Georgia? Regardless of the partisan affiliation of the next Secretary of State in the Peach state, they can easily -- and without penalty from either party -- set a Super Tuesday date for the Georgia primary. 
• And hey, throw in Alabama, Arkansas, Oklahoma and Texas? All Super Tuesday primaries.

There is an argument that the calendar is already frontloaded with southern states, a remnant of Republican efforts across the region to create an "SEC primary" ahead of 2016. The only thing that separates those states above from the early window on the 2028 calendar is at most a week and possibly even just a weekend before Super Tuesday. That does not preclude the RBC from granting early state waivers to two southern states, but such a move may or may not be superfluous given how southern-tinged the front of the calendar already is. 

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Related at FHQ Plus (subscription)...

Now we know which states they are looking at 

Some thoughts on the 2028 Democratic primary calendar process now that the deadline for state parties to apply with the DNC has come and gone

"5 Southern Democratic chairs say South Carolina should lead off 2028 presidential primary calendar"

Meg Kinard at the AP sets the stage for the presentation South Carolina Democrats will make to the Rules and Bylaws Committee for going early in 2028:

"Democratic leaders in a handful of southern states are lobbying for South Carolina to reprise its role as the party’s first-in-the-nation state to cast primary ballots in 2028, arguing that the state best represents the initial playing field for presidential candidates to build the coalitions needed to win.

"The state party chairs of five Democratic parties wrote a letter Thursday to the Democratic National Committee calling on party leaders 'to do everything in your power to ensure South Carolina continues to serve as the indispensable first proving ground for Democratic presidential nominees.' The DNC is currently debating the order in which states will vote in the next round of presidential primaries.

"The state should hold the first presidential balloting in 2028, they argued, in part because it 'is not simply a geographic starting point. It is a moral and political compass for our party and our nation.'”

...

“'The fight for voting rights is no longer just a courtroom battle, it is an electoral one,' the Democratic chairs from Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi and West Virginia wrote in the letter, provided to The Associated Press ahead of its release. 'And it begins in South Carolina.'”

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Noteworthy: There are five states from the south, including South Carolina, that have applied with the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee (RBC) to hold early contests in 2028. The Democrat chairs in all of the other southern states, save Florida and Texas, back the Palmetto state's bid to go not only early but first. It is an endorsement that will likely carry some weight with the members of the RBC, coming from fellow DNC members. 

Now, it may not ultimately prove decisive in this selection process, but this is an endorsement that will not hurt South Carolina Democrats' case for an early slot in 2028. 

And it is worth noting that this sort of endorsement from fellow regional allies is unique so far to the presentation stage of the selection process. No other applicant states have brought forth anything similar in their pitches to the panel.

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Related at FHQ Plus (subscription)...

Now we know which states they are looking at 

Some thoughts on the 2028 Democratic primary calendar process now that the deadline for state parties to apply with the DNC has come and gone

"S. Carolina Dems deploy Biden as they seek early primary"

Alex Thompson at Axios looks into the latest twist in the South Carolina Democrats' efforts to retain first-in-the-nation status for 2028:

"South Carolina Democrats are enlisting former President Biden to try to save the state's place as the first contest in the party's next presidential primary."

"Christale Spain, chair of South Carolina's Democratic Party, has been inviting members of the Democratic National Committee's Rules and Bylaws Committee to the Biden reception as part of the lobbying effort.

"'This intimate gathering offers a rare opportunity to spend time with the former president,' Spain wrote to one committee member."

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Noteworthy: It really is not clear at this point whether Biden inserting himself -- or being inserted by South Carolina Democrats -- will help sway members of the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee as the panel continues to consider the states that will make up the party's early state line up on the 2028 presidential primary calendar. An argument could be made that it may prove persuasive to some members of the committee and backfire with others. 

Biden or not, the biggest feather Palmetto state Democrats have in their caps for the 2028 calendar process is the fact that the South Carolina presidential primary remains among the most, if not the most, mobile piece on the calendar board. The state funds and runs the primary but the state parties decide the date on which the election will fall. Importantly, any decision does not have to go through any state legislature or any other state governmental office first. 

The South Carolina primary, then, could be easily moved into any early position, including first-in-the-nation, or could just as easily be moved out of the early lineup altogether. But as of now, while there is a lot of competition from states vying to be the southern state with some representation on the early calendar, few yet have the ability to get into position that South Carolina Democrats have.

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Related at FHQ Plus (subscription)...

Now we know which states they are looking at 

Some thoughts on the 2028 Democratic primary calendar process now that the deadline for state parties to apply with the DNC has come and gone

"SC Republicans likely to keep coveted first-in-the-South presidential primary spot in 2028"

Anna Wilder of the Charleston Post & Courier updates the 2028 presidential primary calendar maneuvering on the Republican side:

"South Carolina Republicans likely will keep the coveted role of first-in-the-South on the 2028 presidential primary calendar after a Republican National Convention committee moved to secure that early slot last week.

"South Carolina has been the first Southern state to vote in the presidential primary since 1980, championing the significance of the position. For years, the state has consistently backed the person who would become the Republican presidential nominee. Only one candidate, Newt Gingrich in 2012, did not become the nominee after South Carolina voted for him.

"Tyson Grinstead, the South Carolina GOP committeeman, said the Jan. 22 committee meeting in Santa Barbara, Calif., was significant for the state. Members, including Grinstead, voted on a plan to keep the same calendar as before."

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Noteworthy: While it almost always seemed like the Presidential Nominating Process Committee, empowered by the RNC to reexamine the delegate selection rules, would vote to carry over the same early calendar lineup the national party has employed in recent cycles, it was perhaps not a mere formality. As Wilder highlighted:

"Those familiar with the decision said the spot has been competitive in the past and was again this year, as Florida had been eyeing the leadoff Southern spot. In 2012, Florida attempted to take it, but South Carolina moved its date up.

"Ultimately, the chair of the Florida Republican Party, Evan Power, made the motion for South Carolina to keep the spot at the Jan. 22 meeting, despite Florida’s effort to grab it."

Again, all signs consistently pointed toward Republicans once again carving out space before Super Tuesday on the 2028 presidential primary calendar for Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina (the latter two in some yet-to-be-determined order), but it appears that there was at least some room for other states to make a case. And just as Michigan had a history of trying to break through into the early window of the Democratic nomination process (before finding success), Florida has a history on the Republican side. 

Only, Republicans in the Sunshine state were not successful this time around. 

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The seeming absence of Georgia in these discussions is noteworthy as well. The Peach state secured a waiver (ultimately rescinded) from the DNC to conduct an early primary in 2024, but were unable to bring any move of the primary into the early window to fruition. In that process in 2023, there was some acknowledgment from the Republican secretary of state in Georgia of the value of an early presidential primary. But he punted any action on that idea to 2028. 

Thus far, the notion of placing general election battlegrounds into the early window of the presidential primary calendar is one more firmly held on the Democratic side than among Republicans. ...for this cycle anyway.

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The report from the Presidential Nominating Process Committee now moves on to a vote by the RNC Rules Committee. A majority vote there would send it to the full RNC for consideration, where a three-quarters vote is required for final passage. 

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Related at FHQ Plus (subscription)...

Republican rule changes for the 2028 cycle 

The RNC's work on delegate rules isn't done, but the baseline is different on several fronts from the regulations that guided the 2024 process

"South Carolina Democrats file formal bid to keep first-in-nation presidential primary spot in 2028"

The Post and Courier's Caitlin Byrd takes a look at South Carolina Democrats' application to retain an early window slot in 2028:

"The national Democratic Party’s deadline to submit proposals to be part of the so-called “early window” of states in the 2028 presidential primary field expired Friday with South Carolina Democrats filing a bid they hope keeps it first.

"The competition is expected to be fierce. Other states are submitting their own packages, among them battlegrounds like Michigan and Nevada, and historic leadoffs like Iowa and New Hampshire.

"State Democrats say the Palmetto State has a strong case to remain at the front of the nominating process: It’s a smaller state that makes campaigning here cheaper, meeting voters easier and reaching a turnout bloc long seen as crucial for the party’s future success."

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Noteworthy: It is interesting. All of the usual arguments are here for South Carolina being first. As state Democratic Party Chair Christale Spain told Byrd:

"We will again make the case that Black, rural, urban and Southern voters must lead the way in the First in the Nation primary."

It is a familiar diversity argument. But one other consistent theme in some of the arguments for a first-in-the-nation 2028 South Carolina primary from folks in and associated with the state party is that they do not see the 2024 primary in the Palmetto state as having been first. No, that is not a reflection of New Hampshire Democrats opting into the noncompliant state-run presidential primary and holding an unsanctioned primary before South Carolina's. Rather, it is a function of 2024 not being a competitive nomination race. 

This argument basically boils down to, "we have not really seen what the nomination system looks like with South Carolina as the lead." In other words, some in and around the state party see 2024 as something of a dry run, but a practice run and not a true test. 

South Carolina DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee member Carol Fowler made that argument:

"We haven't seen how it works with South Carolina first, because I truly did not count the last time,” Fowler said of the 2024 contest where Biden faced no serious primary challenger and months later suspended his bid. “We deserve a chance to see if Joe Biden was right."

And so did state party Executive Director Jay Parmley:

"We're making the case that the primary in 2024 was not an open primary,” said state Executive Director Jay Parmley. “There was an incumbent president on the ballot, and the current calendar has not been tested in a true competitive open primary system."

Neither is wrong. But it also is not clear how successful the party will be in advancing that particular part of the case to be first with the national party. 

What South Carolina Democrats continue to have on their side in all of this -- whether being first or merely among the early states -- is that it is among the easiest pieces to move around on the calendar. That may not pay dividends with respect to the competition for the first slot, but it is a feather in Palmetto state Democrats' caps that none of the other southern state party applicants can boast. 

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Related at FHQ Plus (subscription)...

Deadline day approaches for would-be early Democratic states for 2028 

Some thoughts from FHQ now that the deadline has drawn the attention of the media

"Scoop: S. Carolina Dems enlist influencers for primary fight"

Holly Otterbein at Axios has the latest on South Carolina Democrats ramping up their defense of an early calendar spot:

"South Carolina will host a "creator" briefing alongside the national party's meeting in Los Angeles this week — a reflection of the growing importance of Democrat-friendly influencers as the party seeks to recapture young voters from the GOP.

"It's part of an increasingly hot battle within the party over which states will get the earliest slots on the 2028 primary calendar — and likely have outsized sway in determining who wins the Democratic nomination."

...

Noteworthy: One's mileage may vary on just how significant it is that South Carolina Democrats are turning to influencers in the state party's effort to retain an earlier (or the first) spot on the 2028 presidential primary calendar. More notable I would argue is the fact that Palmetto state Democrats are taking this approach in a public way ahead of and concurrent with the upcoming DNC meeting. No decisions will be made on the calendar this week, but South Carolina Democrats are following in the footsteps of their counterparts from New Hampshire who lobbied the Rules and Bylaws Committee (RBC) during the panel's October meeting. 

This activity will likely only escalate between now and when waiver requests to the RBC are made by state parties in the lead up to (and very likely after) the January 16 deadline. 

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Related at FHQ Plus (subscription)...

Are Democrats really considering putting Michigan's primary first for 2028? 

The early answer appears to be yes. But why when the Great Lakes state is not a perfect fit for the national party's selection criteria?

"2028 presidential hopefuls flock to key battleground states: Where have they traveled?"

Oren Oppenheim at ABC News:

"One year out from the 2026 midterms, major Democratic Party names have been taking the show on the road, saying that they’re helping the party lay the groundwork to battle for the U.S. House.

"They also might be preparing to run for president."

...

"ABC News has tracked at least 43 visits or planned visits so far in 2025 and 2026 by Democratic presidential hopefuls to key early or battleground presidential election states. Some of those states are also expected to be key House battlegrounds in 2026."

courtesy of ABC News

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Noteworthy: This is not the first and will not be the last glimpse at the travel of prospective 2028 Democratic presidential candidates, but it is a check-in following the 2025 off-year elections. There is nothing all that surprising in the pattern of the candidate visits thus far. 

However, despite its double billing as both (very likely) early 2028 primary state and general election battleground, Nevada still does not garner that much attention. ABC News could have (should have?) discounted travel by candidates to neighboring states. Under those conditions, the Silver state has had just three candidates drop in during 2025 (or that are scheduled to trek that way in early 2026). 

Nevada has been a part of the early window on the Democratic calendar for nearly 20 years now -- five, and likely six, cycles -- and in many ways that still has not translated. By comparison, Iowa, a state that is very likely to be excluded from the early window on the 2028 calendar (but could go rogue!), is seeing more visitors. A visit to Iowa still carries more weight.

Will that affect Nevada's attempt to nail down the lead-off spot in the order for 2028? It may be a knock on Silver state Democrats' case. But it is still early yet. 

"South Carolina Democrats will fight to keep 'first in the nation' primary status in 2028"

Alexandra Marquez weighs in at NBC News on the uncertainty of the early 2028 primary calendar for Democrats:

"Three years before 2028, the outlines of the next presidential race are already growing clearer, with large fields of potential primary candidates in both parties already making early moves.

"But one big thing is very much unclear for Democrats: which state will vote first when the primaries start."

...

"In South Carolina, which was tapped to host the Democrats’ first sanctioned primary for the first time in 2024, state Democrats are adamant they will be first in line on the primary calendar again in 2028.

"'Oh yeah, we’re first,' South Carolina Democratic Party Chair Christale Spain told NBC News at the party’s headquarters in Columbia earlier this month. She added, 'South Carolina is first. That means the South is first. So we’re gonna continue to fight for that.'"

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Noteworthy: Early reporting on the South Carolina angle of the 2028 primary calendar story has come to lean so heavily on comments from Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-SC, 6th) that they have almost become conventional wisdom:

"Clyburn told reporters at his annual fish fry he’s not concerned about South Carolina being the lead off contest, after the Democratic Party kicked off its 2024 presidential nominating process with the Palmetto State.

“'I never asked for anything more than keep us in the pre-primary window which covers a whole month before the primary starts,' Clyburn said. 'So I think it’s important to the party for that to be the case. Whether it be one, two, three or four, I don’t care.'”

But the resulting picture -- a kind of "we're just glad to be here" sentiment -- is maybe a bit too deferential to Clyburn. There are other perspectives among state Democrats on the "should South Carolina be first?" discussion as Chair Spain demonstrates. 

However, would one expect her to say anything less at this stage of the process? Of course she is going to advocate for the Palmetto state going first in 2028. But this is the first break (of sorts) from that South Carolina conventional wisdom that has developed in the reporting on the primary calendar. 

"South Carolina's early state status is far from secure. But 2028 Dems are going anyway."

Note that the title of this piece changed from when it was first released via RSS. It is now published under the headline "Democrats in South Carolina are barely pretending they're not already running for president."

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Politico's Brakkton Booker and Elena Schneider report on prospective 2028 Democrats' travel to traditional early states (and shuffling the calendar moving forward):

"South Carolina Democrats know their grip on the top spot is tenuous, with traditional early states like Iowa and New Hampshire eager to reclaim their lead-off position, and others — like North Carolina and Georgia — seeking to emerge as new states to consider. And it comes as there’s been a major reshuffling on a powerful panel at the Democratic National Committee that has huge sway over the presidential nominating process."

...

"But moving the order of primary states is easier said than done. North Carolina is hamstrung by state law from moving its date, and Democrats would need the GOP-controlled legislature to agree to any changes. DNC members have also emphasized smaller states to allow lesser-known candidates to build followings.

“'The most powerful force in the universe is inertia, so South Carolina is probably the favorite to stay just because of that,' said an incoming member of the committee granted anonymity to discuss internal dynamics. 'Every state has a chance to be first, but I do think we have to come into this with a degree of realism.'”

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Noteworthy: In 2022 the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee (DNCRBC) had a short checklist for states vying for one of the several early calendar slots for 2024:

• Diversity
• Competitiveness
• Feasibility

The first two, to be sure, were and are more than aspirational or symbolic. Diversity of the Democratic primary electorate in a given (prospective early) state was always important to the DNCRBC when the calendar decisions were made in 2022. General election competitiveness was less so. Both paled in comparison to the unavoidable third item on the list: feasibility. A state cannot be early if decision makers cannot get a date change made. That is all the more difficult when 1) Republicans control all of some of the levers of power in state government (whether governor, secretary of state or state legislature) and/or 2) there is no Republican buy-in at the state and/or national level. And conversations between Democrats and Republicans at the national, much less the state, level are not apparent at this time ahead of decisions on the 2028 calendar. 

It is early yet for 2028, and those conversations can happen at any time, but there is no evidence they have or are in the offing at this point. And that is food for thought as the media treatments of this topic gain steam. Feasibility matters.

"[I]t seems that New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada will remain early"

CNN's Zachary Wolf and Isaac Dovere recently chatted about the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination:

"What are the early states to watch?

"WOLF: Biden forced a lot of changes in the primary process for Democrats, including Iowa not really being an early state for them anymore. What’s the early map going to look like?

"DOVERE: Biden did push through some changes, especially making South Carolina first. But some of the other changes, particularly moving Iowa off of the early-state calendar, were very much supported by a lot of other people in the Democratic National Coalition. We’ll see what the calendar ends up looking like. The chances that Iowa gets back to a primary position seem very low. That said, the chances that New Hampshire gets back to the first-in-the-nation spot that actually is required by New Hampshire state law seem much higher.

"We won’t know the full answer on the calendar until at least sometime in 2026, and there is a lot of wrangling and back-and-forth among the states and among the DNC members. What is definitely true, though, is that no matter what arrangement will come, it seems that New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada will remain early. Where exactly they are is a little bit unclear."

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Noteworthy: It is very early in the 2028 process, but at this juncture, FHQ agrees with Dovere's assessment. It does seem like Nevada, New Hampshire and South Carolina are "safe" in the early window for 2028. But again, the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee has yet to formally sit down to even begin the process of hearing pitches from state parties that want their state's primary or caucus included in the early lineup for 2028, much less actually settling on which states will fill those slots. That heavy lifting likely will not start taking place until after August and more likely toward the end of 2025/beginning of 2026. The early window for 2028 may ultimately come to look similar to 2020 (sans Iowa), but that is far from guaranteed this far out.

"‘Who’s got next?’ Democrats already lining up for 2028 presidential race in early voting states"

The AP's Steve Peoples, Meg Kinnard and Holly Ramer on early 2028 candidate travel:

"The first presidential primary votes won’t be cast for another two and a half years. And yet, over the span of 10 days in July, three Democratic presidential prospects are scheduled to campaign in South Carolina.

"Nearly a half dozen others have made recent pilgrimages to South Carolina, New Hampshire and Iowa — states that traditionally host the nation’s opening presidential nomination contests. Still other ambitious Democrats are having private conversations with officials on the ground there.

"The voters in these states are used to seeing presidential contenders months or even years before most of the country, but the political jockeying in 2025 for the 2028 presidential contest appears to be playing out earlier, with more frequency and with less pretense than ever before."

Related from The Hill:

"South Carolina becomes early hot spot for potential 2028 candidates"

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Noteworthy: Decisions on the 2028 Democratic presidential primary calendar are far off, so the press is maybe being a bit reflexive in focusing on Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina as usual. Still, that is where the potential candidates have been popping up to this point in the cycle. Perhaps that is an indication of where the calendar will go (or where the candidates think it will go). And that is not without import.

However, left with far fewer visitors and a much lower frequency of visits are two states that, unlike the traditional three above, are locked into likely early calendar positions by state law (subject to change): Nevada, a state that has been in the early lineup on the Democratic side as long as South Carolina has, and Michigan. 

That said, Maryland Governor Wes Moore (D) was in Detroit in the days leading up to July 4.

What does a new DNC chair mean for South Carolina's position on the 2028 presidential primary calendar?

The Democratic National Committee's election of Ken Martin (MN state party chair, DNC member and president of the Association of State Democratic Committees) as chairman was the first shoe to drop in the process of the party devising the rules that will govern the 2028 presidential nomination. In the near term that means Martin appointing members to the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee. Further down the road, that panel will lay the groundwork for the early window of the presidential primary calendar. 

And that has stakeholders in the states with early contests in past presidential nomination cycles attempting to assess the playing field, measuring the chances of retaining an early slot on the calendar in three years' time. Joseph Bustos from The State (Columbia, SC) read the tea leaves from the perspective of the Palmetto state on Martin's comments on the 2028 calendar prior to the his election as chair:

"It’s not up to the next DNC chair to put their thumb on the scale in any way, shape or form. It’s not one person’s decision. It is the party’s decision,” Martin said. “Any state that wants to have their voice heard and make a bid for this will be heard. Second, the calendar we put forward has to be rigorous, it has to be efficient and it has to be fair," Martin said. “It has to battle test our nominees so we win and it has to honor the great diversity of this party, and it has to honor the great traditions of this party.”

Martin's criteria closely align with the review process the party utilized in selecting the early primaries for the 2024 cycle. That is a bigger signal -- that something akin to the 2024 application/review/selection process will carryover -- at this point than which states will ultimately make up the three to five states in the early window on the calendar prior to Super Tuesday in early March. 

Logistically, however, of the three states that made up the list of officially sanctioned contests on the Democratic primary calendar in 2024, two -- Michigan and Nevada -- have their calendar positions codified in state law. In South Carolina, the state parties set the dates of the presidential primaries. While Michigan and Nevada may have partisan obstacles to changing the dates of their primaries, the same is not true (at this time) in the Palmetto state. The DNC may find its hands tied with respect to Michigan and Nevada but could exert some pressure on the South Carolina Democratic Party to comply with any calendar position (or position change) for 2028. 

But that is a political question the Rules and Bylaws Committee will weigh in the coming months before the rules for 2028 are formally adopted in the late summer/early fall of 2026.

Colorado Republicans Eyeing a Primary Switch? ...and more

Leading the day at FHQ...

The Colorado Supreme Court decision to remove Donald Trump from the presidential primary ballot in the state has the state Republican Party exploring a late shift from a primary to a caucus. But that process is more complicated than simply declaring the change. More in a gift article at FHQ Plus.

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In the continuing state-by-state series on delegate allocation rules, FHQ examines changes for 2024 in...

• The US Virgin Islands: Republicans in the territory pushed the limits of the RNC rules in putting together a delegate selection plan for this cycle. ...and paid a price for it.
• South Carolina: Meanwhile in the Palmetto state, Republicans are back to business as usual in a competitive presidential nomination cycle. But there are some interesting tweaks to an allocation system that has been a model of consistency for much of the post-reform era. 

Looking for more on delegates and delegate allocation? Start here at the central hub for Republican delegate allocation rules on the state level at FHQ. 

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Recent posts:

There is a central tension point in the New Hampshire presidential primary situation, but this still isn't it. 

Which couple of states?

Why DeSantis Attacks Haley

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See more on our political/electoral consulting venture at FHQ Strategies. 

The difference in how the national parties approve delegate selection plans

Invisible Primary: Visible -- Thoughts on the invisible primary and links to the goings on of the moment as 2024 approaches...

First, over at FHQ Plus...

• Unless Georgia Democrats are planning a party-run primary, then the presidential primary in the Peach state is not in limbo. It is set for March 12. That reality was missed on folks who misinterpreted the Georgia-related comments at the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee meeting last week. All the details at FHQ Plus.

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In Invisible Primary: Visible today...

...

It has been unusual since news broke over the weekend that the South Carolina Republican Party had set the date of the presidential primary for 2024 that stories keep adding something to the effect of "the primary will be on that date if the [delegate selection] plan gets approved by the RNC." First, the decision by Palmetto state Republicans is rules-compliant, so there is not really any mystery here. The primary will be on February 24 unless the state party changes its mind, something that seems unlikely. 

Second, there is, I suppose, a process of review on the Republican side, but Rule 16(f) filings come in so late -- the deadline is October 1 for state parties to submit plans -- that a review and approval process like what the Democratic Party does publicly over the course of months every four years is just not possible after the deadline. That is not a judgment of the Republican process. Rather, it is a description. Republican state parties submit plans and they are either compliant or they are not. 

Clearly, state parties can consult with the national party ahead on time on these matters. After all, it recently came out that the Michigan Republican Party had been in consultation with the RNC on its 2024 plans. But the state parties do not have to do that. Virgin Islands Republicans did not strategically select a Thursday for their caucuses in 2016, for example. No, they missed the deadline for plan submission in 2015 and were forced to use the same rules that governed their process from the previous cycle. That included the date, March 10. Obviously, there was no consultation there. The 2012 rules were just made to carry over to 2016 under the RNC rules. 

None of this means much in the grand scheme of things. It is just that the repeated mentions of "if approved" coming out with the South Carolina news is, well, new in the context of Republican state parties creating plans. It simply has not been a regular part of reporting on these things in the past. 

...

Sure, Nevada Republicans could theoretically hold a primary and a caucus next year. But there are questions about whether that would conflict with RNC rules. The answering of those questions seems moot anyway. There will only be a Republican primary in Nevada next year if more than one candidate files to be on the state-run primary ballot. And if Republicans in the Silver state allocate delegates through a caucus process, then candidates will be drawn to that and not the primary anyway. If Nevada Republicans want a caucus, then they will have caucuses and caucuses alone. 

...

Folks in Florida should just go ahead and move the primary in the Sunshine state up to November or December sometime. If Florida Senator Rick Scott jumps into the race, then there is going to need to be some mechanism to winnow the field of candidates from the Sunshine state alone to see who among them can run in the remaining primaries. 

FHQ is kidding, of course, but four is a lot of Floridians potentially running for 2024. Yes, Scott has again denied that he is seeking the presidential nomination. But even if the consideration is real and a run ultimately is not, it all speaks to a certain level of continued tension in the informal Republican nomination process. It is not a breakdown, per se, but folks continue to enter the race (or consider entering it). And that is despite signals that the path would be narrow at best. Trump is formidable, but not that formidable and DeSantis is well-positioned. Together, the two capture around three-quarters of support out there in public opinion surveys. 

Still, there is enough uncertainty -- around Trump's legal issues and DeSantis's supposed stumbles in the early days of the campaign -- to fuel consideration of a run if not an official bid from others. And a big part of that is that there has not been a rush of elite level support for either main candidate. Elected officials and big donors not massing behind either Trump or DeSantis is one way to look at that. Another is that those same folks are quietly in search of alternatives behind the scenes, urging prospective candidates to run. This seems to have been the case with Chris Sununu. He was going to run. Until he was not. And part of the story that made it look like Sununu was going to join the field was that he was receiving positive feedback on the possibility of a bid. However, the New Hampshire governor overrode those signals and remained on the sidelines. 

It could be that Rick Scott sees a path. But it could also be that he is also hearing from folks who are encouraging a run. Normally, a party might collectively try to tamp down on that. The signals, for example, may discourage bids when two main candidates are seemingly sucking up most of the oxygen in a race. But the 2024 Republican invisible primary is not normal. There is a certain cacophony to it all that makes reading the signals tougher for prospective candidates. 

Or it makes it easy to choose the signals that those prospective candidates want to hear. 

...

From around the invisible primary...

• Will Hurd just launched his presidential bid. The former Texas congressman may not be the longest of long shots currently in the race, but his odds of making the debate stage, much less succeeding beyond that, are slim. So it was maybe a surprise that right out of the gate on day one Hurd essentially sealed his fate on participating in any upcoming debate. He has refused to the sign the RNC pledge to support the eventual nominee. 
• The Tampa Bay Times has a retrospective look at the first month of the DeSantis campaign.
• Who does not love a good diner campaign story? Steven Porter at The Boston Globe sizes up the vocal Trump critics in New Hampshire from the Red Arrow Diner. 

...

On this date...

...in 2003, and with nary a scream, Vermont Governor Howard Dean officially launched his bid for the 2004 Democratic presidential nomination. 

...in 2019, former Pennsylvania Congressman Joe Sestak joined an already huge field of Democrats seeking the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination. 

...in 2020, Kentucky and New York held pandemic delayed presidential primaries.

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Recent posts:

Nevada responds to State Republican Party suit against the new presidential primary

One more quirk in the scheduling of the South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary

Are Iowa and New Hampshire likely to face RNC penalties?

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See more on our political/electoral consulting venture at FHQ Strategies. 

Nevada responds to State Republican Party suit against the new presidential primary

Invisible Primary: Visible -- Thoughts on the invisible primary and links to the goings on of the moment as 2024 approaches...

First, over at FHQ Plus...

• There are two operative questions that have yet to be answered in the New Hampshire Democratic Party's calendar standoff with the Democratic National Committee. No decisions made by the Rules and Bylaws Committee in Minneapolis last week changed those questions. But of course it was not reported that way. All the details at FHQ Plus.

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In Invisible Primary: Visible today...

...

The always great Nevada Independent has the scoop on the state of Nevada's response to the recent lawsuit filed by the Republican Party in the Silver state to stop the presidential primary. Here is the most important factor in all of this (and something FHQ has pointed out already):

"Under the 2021 law, the state will hold a presidential primary election for both major political parties on Feb. 6, 2024, as long as more than one candidate has filed to run."

The lawsuit is unnecessary. If Nevada Republicans want to opt out of the primary, then they can. If candidates want to chase actual delegates, then they will file, under whatever conditions the Nevada Republican Party sets, to run in the caucuses. There will not be a primary unless more than one presidential campaign wastes its time, money and energy in filing to run in what would be a meaningless beauty contest primary. Without the Republican primary, there will be no potential conflict for Nevada Republicans with Republican National Committee rules. 

The short version of this is that as long as one or fewer candidates file for the Republican presidential primary in Nevada, there will not be one. There have already been some innovative filing proposals in party-run processes this cycle. Perhaps Nevada Republicans could make it a part of the caucus filing for candidates to not file for the state-run primary?

Again, the lawsuit is unnecessary.

...

Henry Gomez at NBC News was nice enough to chat to FHQ about the recent South Carolina Republican presidential primary decision. He and Matt Dixon have a thoroughly reported piece up about it. To some degree, the pair play up the gap in the calendar that South Carolina Republicans are seeking to take advantage of. 

There was always going to be a February gap in the primary calendar after the changes on the Democratic side for 2024. But up until this past weekend, the question seemed to be whether Republicans in the Palmetto state (and those in Nevada, for that matter) would jump into January or settle in early February. In other words, if South Carolina and/or Nevada Republicans filled that February gap, then the expectation was that it would be on the front end. However, South Carolina Republicans surprised in gravitating toward the end of the gap instead. And there is a sizable space between a New Hampshire primary hypothetically on January 22 and the South Carolina Republican primary on February 24. That, again, gives Nevada Republicans quite a bit of runway for scheduling their caucuses and noticeably decompresses the beginning of the calendar.

Good piece from Gomez and Dixon. 

...

From the endorsement primary...

• Former Vice President Mike Pence picked up the support of Indiana Governor Eric Holcomb. It is Pence's biggest endorsement to date, and although it comes from a later primary state, it is a nice bit of homegrown support.
• It is funny. Just last week FHQ noted that Senator Tim Scott's efforts at home were potentially crowding out non-Trumps in the Palmetto state. Well, Ron DeSantis is heading back to South Carolina for another visit and town hall, and the Florida governor has rolled out an endorsement list that includes 15 South Carolina state legislators -- 11 from the House of Representative and four state senators. It is not what Scott has, but the support is not nothing either (a little more than 10 percent of the Republicans in the state legislature). In a state where the big names are either running for the Republican presidential nomination or have endorsed Trump, these state legislative endorsements are important signals. 

...

From around the invisible primary...

• Former Texas Representative Will Hurd (R) launched his oft-teased presidential bid.
• Doug Burgum has not been shy about tapping into his personal wealth to fund his campaign. The North Dakota governor has been the biggest spender in the Republican presidential field since he officially kicked off his run earlier in June. 
• Big donors in Illinois Republican circles are pushing former Prairie state Governor Bruce Rauner (R) to back former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley. But other forces within the broader party network in the Land of Lincoln are backing DeSantis. It is an interesting proxy battle in a state deeper into the primary calendar, and it notably does not seem to include Trump.

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Recent posts:

One more quirk in the scheduling of the South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary

Are Iowa and New Hampshire likely to face RNC penalties?

South Carolina's move greatly reduces uncertainty on the 2024 presidential primary calendar

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See more on our political/electoral consulting venture at FHQ Strategies.