Tuesday, June 30, 2020

The Electoral College Map (6/30/20)

Changes across the month of June. Update below.




Update for June 30.


Changes (June 30)
StateBeforeAfter
MissouriLean TrumpToss Up Trump

Another couple of polls were released on Tuesday, 18 weeks ahead of Election Day. One was more disruptive, if one can call it that, than the other. But new polling data is new polling data. And there were some changes to the map on the last day of June.

Polling Quick Hits:
Missouri:
First of all, out in the Show-Me state, Garin-Hart-Yang found not only a close presidential race, but a slight Joe Biden lead in a state that President Trump carried by 18 points in 2016. Now, if Missouri were to follow the national and state-level polling trajectory over the last couple of months, then a contraction of some sort could be expected. In fact, even before this poll, Biden was already enough above Hillary Clinton's share of support in 2016 in 2020 Missouri polling that he was in line with the Democrats' average share in the state over the last three presidential election cycles. And Trump was underperforming his Missouri showing by about seven points as well. And that had brought his advantage down to a bit more than six points in the FHQ graduated weighted average there.

But that was before this poll. And before this poll, there had been a handful of surveys conducted in Missouri but only a couple since February. That meant that the early polls were carrying a weight in the average that had decayed quite a bit and were overwhelmed a bit by a fully weighted new poll with Biden ahead. Translation: Missouri jumped from a relatively comfortable Lean Trump state to a state in Trump toss up turf. But this poll, as FHQ explained earlier in a Twitter thread, is an outlier. The swing in this poll from 2016 to 2020 is almost twice what the average swing has been across all states.

It is not that Missouri cannot be closer than it was in 2016, but this poll paints a picture that is a bit tighter than the rest of the polling out there might otherwise depict. That said, if Missouri is within six points -- even with Trump in the lead -- that means that a lot of other states are running much closer than they were in 2016 and are likely a bit bluer than they were four years ago.

And that is pretty much what the map above and Electoral College Spectrum below have consistently shown since FHQ began updating these projections two weeks ago.


New York:
Siena has done most of the survey work in the Empire state in 2020 and the university-based polling outfit added another poll today. There is not much to say about this one. Last month Biden led 57-32 and one month later, the former vice president led 57-32. Like the Pennsylvania poll a day ago, this one was right around the preexisting average here at FHQ. So this one was a confirming poll more than anything else. Biden is in no danger in New York and the new Siena poll did not break with that likely conclusion.


NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2020 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.


The Electoral College Spectrum1
MA-112
(14)
CT-7
(173)
NE CD2-1
PA-203
(269/289)
MO-10
(125)
NE-2
(56)
HI-4
(18)
OR-7
(180)
NH-43
(273/269)
AK-3
(115)
TN-11
(54)
CA-55
(73)
DE-3
(183)
FL-29
(302/265)
MT-3
(112)
AL-9
(43)
VT-3
(76)
CO-9
(192)
NV-6
(308/236)
SC-9
(109)
ID-4
(34)
NY-29
(105)
NM-5
(197)
AZ-11
(319/230)
UT-6
(100)
KY-8
(30)
MD-10
(115)
MN-10
(207)
NC-15
(334/219)
LA-8
NE CD1-1
(94)
ND-3
(22)
IL-20
(135)
VA-13
(220)
OH-18
(352/204)
MS-6
(85)
SD-3
(19)
WA-12
(147)
ME-2
(222)
GA-16
(368/186)
IN-11
(79)
OK-7
(16)
RI-4
ME CD1-1
(152)
MI-16
(238)
TX-38
(170)
KS-6
(68)
WV-5
(9)
NJ-14
(166)
WI-10
(248)
IA-6
ME CD2-1
(132)
AR-6
(62)
WY-3
NE CD3-1
(4)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states up to the Keystone state), he would have 289 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics.


To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College.

3 New Hampshire
 is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state for the former vice president. But because the line between New Hampshire and Pennsylvania creates an Electoral College tie (269-269), Pennsylvania is the tipping point state for Trump. It is where the president surpasses 270 electoral votes. Collectively, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania are the tipping point states.

While Missouri's shade may have lightened on both the map and the Spectrum, it did not budge on the Spectrum, retaining its space in the order. The average margin there for Trump may have shrunk some, but it remains a distant takeover opportunity for Biden if it can really be considered one at all. But it is noteworthy that the Trump toss ups have now extended into the fourth column on the figure.

New York obviously did not go anywhere. It, too, stayed in place with the new poll basically affirming the extant state of the race there.

With no new polls in either New Hampshire or Pennsylvania, not to mention those states immediately around them, the tipping point states remained the same as June came to a close. Meanwhile, the Watch List was also unchanged from a day ago. The same group of states near the break points in the various categories were stuck in neutral.


--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State
Switch
Florida
from Toss Up Biden
to Lean Biden
Georgia
from Toss Up Biden
to Toss Up Trump
Louisiana
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Mississippi
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Nebraska CD1
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Nebraska CD2
from Toss Up Biden
to Lean Biden
New Hampshire
from Toss Up Biden
to Lean Biden
Ohio
from Toss Up Biden
to Toss Up Trump
Pennsylvania
from Toss Up Biden
to Lean Biden
South Carolina
from Lean Trump
to Strong Trump
Utah
from Lean Trump
to Strong Trump
Virginia
from Strong Biden
to Lean Biden
Wisconsin
from Lean Biden
to Toss Up Biden
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll the thad Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was  too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.


--
Related posts:
The Electoral College Map (6/29/20)

The Electoral College Map (6/26/20)

The Electoral College Map (6/25/20)



Follow FHQ on TwitterInstagram and Facebook or subscribe by Email.

Monday, June 29, 2020

The Electoral College Map (6/29/20)

Update for June 29.


Changes (June 29)
StateBeforeAfter
Georgia
Toss Up Trump
Toss Up Biden
After most of a weekend with no new state-level surveys, a trio of intriguing polls were released; two late Sunday evening and another Monday morning. Those first two, out of a couple of formerly blue wall states -- Pennsylvania and Wisconsin -- did little to change where the pair had been prior to those polls being included at FHQ. However, the Georgia survey from Public Policy Polling brought with it the first change in the overall FHQ Electoral College tally in the two weeks since the (near) daily updates here began.

Polling Quick Hits:
Georgia:
Obviously, the Peach state pushing over the partisan line into Biden territory on the strength of this PPP survey is noteworthy, but there is some necessary context that should run alongside that shift. First of all, Biden has led in all three polls of Georgia conducted during the month of June, but two of those three were from PPP. May was a little more varied in terms of both pollsters in Georgia and leaders. There were four different pollsters in the field there in May and each candidate led in two of those polls. In a state, then, that was already close but tipped toward President Trump, than change in trajectory can matter.

And it has. But the biggest bit of context to be added here is that Georgia is a virtual tie between the president and former Vice President Biden. Georgia was already on the Watch List (below) and FHQ mentioned last week that if a state was going to alter the overall electoral vote projection, it was going to be the Peach state. And that has come to pass, but Biden's advantage there as of today is just +0.001. That is close enough that the state could go either way, but that misses that point that there are five other states between Georgia and the two current tipping point states here at FHQ. Georgia, then, is just added cushion if Biden actually wins it while taking the other states closer to the Biden in the order depicted in the Electoral College Spectrum below. But what is cushion for Biden is merely consolation for Trump if he manages to win in the Peach state, but is unable to push any further into the current Biden coalition of states beyond Georgia.

Pennsylvania:
While other models have had the margin in Pennsylvania a bit wider in Biden's favor, the FHQ graduated weighted average of the Keystone state has Biden's lead there at +4.57. The new Susquehanna Polling and Research survey with Biden up five points merely confirms where FHQ already had the race there: right on the edge of the Toss up/Lean line in the Biden column. And ultimately, the results are not that different from the SP&R poll from April. But while that survey was consistent with the other polling of Pennsylvania in April, this one runs counter to (or at least tighter than) the other recent polling in the commonwealth. [It is unclear if "other" or third party candidates were included as options in the question, but both candidates lost support from the April survey to now. Where the remaining 13 percent of respondents fell was not reported.]

Wisconsin:
Finally, the Trafalgar Group had another unusually close result in a survey of another blue wall state. Earlier last week it was Michigan, but last night, a new poll of Wisconsin provided a bookend to the week. As FHQ tweeted last night, there have been seven polls in the field in the Badger state at various points during June and this survey was the only one to have shown Trump ahead. Now, this may be a start of a new trend in Wisconsin or it could be an outlier. The average margin in the remaining six polls? Just under ten points in Biden's direction. And Biden's average level of support in those polls was a little more than 49. Trump's was just under 40. Trump was running ahead of that straight average of his June support in Wisconsin as Biden was running behind his.


NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2020 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.


The Electoral College Spectrum1
MA-112
(14)
CT-7
(173)
NE CD2-1
PA-203
(269/289)
MO-10
(125)
NE-2
(56)
HI-4
(18)
OR-7
(180)
NH-43
(273/269)
AK-3
(115)
TN-11
(54)
CA-55
(73)
DE-3
(183)
FL-29
(302/265)
MT-3
(112)
AL-9
(43)
VT-3
(76)
CO-9
(192)
NV-6
(308/236)
SC-9
(109)
ID-4
(34)
NY-29
(105)
NM-5
(197)
AZ-11
(319/230)
UT-6
(100)
KY-8
(30)
MD-10
(115)
MN-10
(207)
NC-15
(334/219)
LA-8
NE CD1-1
(94)
ND-3
(22)
IL-20
(135)
VA-13
(220)
OH-18
(352/204)
MS-6
(85)
SD-3
(19)
WA-12
(147)
ME-2
(222)
GA-16
(368/186)
IN-11
(79)
OK-7
(16)
RI-4
ME CD1-1
(152)
MI-16
(238)
TX-38
(170)
KS-6
(68)
WV-5
(9)
NJ-14
(166)
WI-10
(248)
IA-6
ME CD2-1
(132)
AR-6
(62)
WY-3
NE CD3-1
(4)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states up to the Keystone state), he would have 289 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics.


To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College.

3 New Hampshire
 is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state for the former vice president. But because the line between New Hampshire and Pennsylvania creates an Electoral College tie (269-269), Pennsylvania is the tipping point state for Trump. It is where the president surpasses 270 electoral votes. Collectively, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania are the tipping point states.

None of the three states changed in the order on the weight of the new polling data. But Georgia rather than being the Trump state most likely to jump the partisan line into Biden's column is now the state most likely to jump into Trump's. Both Georgia and Ohio are on the Watch List below, within a point of changing categories (into the Trump toss ups).

Importantly, that the Pennsylvania poll was one that confirmed the FHQ average there meant that it retained its position as one of the tipping point states. However, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire have now essentially converged. They basically have the same average margin with Biden up a bit more than 4.5 points. But had the two states swapped spots, then Pennsylvania would have become the sole tipping point state, removing the possibility of the electoral college tie.

Needless to say, Georgia stayed on the Watch List, but traded possible outcomes upon new polling being released. Maine also drifted off the List. Again, with just one poll out of the Pine Tree state thus far, it is anchored to other states that finished near it in the 2016 election. That pulled the average margin there below Biden +9 and drew the state off the List in the process.


--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State
Switch
Florida
from Toss Up Biden
to Lean Biden
Georgia
from Toss Up Biden
to Toss Up Trump
Louisiana
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Mississippi
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Nebraska CD1
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Nebraska CD2
from Toss Up Biden
to Lean Biden
New Hampshire
from Toss Up Biden
to Lean Biden
Ohio
from Toss Up Biden
to Toss Up Trump
Pennsylvania
from Toss Up Biden
to Lean Biden
South Carolina
from Lean Trump
to Strong Trump
Utah
from Lean Trump
to Strong Trump
Virginia
from Strong Biden
to Lean Biden
Wisconsin
from Lean Biden
to Toss Up Biden
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll the thad Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was  too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.


--
Related posts:
The Electoral College Map (6/26/20)

The Electoral College Map (6/25/20)

The Electoral College Map (6/24/20)


Follow FHQ on TwitterInstagram and Facebook or subscribe by Email.

Friday, June 26, 2020

The Electoral College Map (6/26/20)

Update for June 26.


After a flood of new data on Thursday, all Friday had to offer was a handful of national polls. But the series of Sunbelt polls -- in Florida (Biden +9), Georgia (Biden +2), North Carolina (Biden +2) and Texas (Biden +1) -- from Fox that were released came out just after FHQ went live with the update a day ago. At least those are out there to incorporate.

So let's talk about them.

There were a few people out there who seemed amenable to the idea of Biden being marginally ahead in Georgia and Texas but balked at that gap in Biden's favor in Florida. And while that does grab the attention -- especially for those out there who have followed presidential (and for that matter, a number of statewide) elections in Sunshine state over the last few cycles -- that makes some sense. But if Biden is up two in Georgia and one in Texas and if there has been a uniform shift from 2016 to now, then the margin would be a bit wider in Florida than in the other states. No, it may not be a nine point spread there, but it is probably at or above the line between the Biden toss up states and the Lean Biden states. That is right around or above the 5 percent mark. At FHQ, Florida comes in just under that, but if one were to err on the side of caution, then Florida would likely be a bit in Lean Biden turf.

The North Carolina poll from Fox would be the one FHQ would take some exception to. If it is off, it is not by much, but the two point Biden edge in the Tar Heel state is not exactly consistent with the order of states that has been established so far this cycle. A two point Biden lead in Georgia would likely mean a four point advantage in North Carolina. Again, that is not that big a difference, but one worth point out in light of the Electoral College Spectrum below.


NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2020 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.


The Electoral College Spectrum1
MA-112
(14)
CT-7
(173)
NE CD2-1
PA-203
(269/289)
MO-10
(125)
NE-2
(56)
HI-4
(18)
OR-7
(180)
NH-43
(273/269)
AK-3
(115)
TN-11
(54)
CA-55
(73)
DE-3
(183)
FL-29
(302/265)
MT-3
(112)
AL-9
(43)
VT-3
(76)
CO-9
(192)
NV-6
(308/236)
SC-9
(109)
ID-4
(34)
NY-29
(105)
NM-5
(197)
AZ-11
(319/230)
UT-6
(100)
KY-8
(30)
MD-10
(115)
MN-10
(207)
NC-15
(334/219)
LA-8
NE CD1-1
(94)
ND-3
(22)
IL-20
(135)
VA-13
(220)
OH-18
(352/204)
MS-6
(85)
SD-3
(19)
WA-12
(147)
ME-2
(222)
GA-16
(186)
IN-11
(79)
OK-7
(16)
RI-4
ME CD1-1
(152)
MI-16
(238)
TX-38
(170)
KS-6
(68)
WV-5
(9)
NJ-14
(166)
WI-10
(248)
IA-6
ME CD2-1
(132)
AR-6
(62)
WY-3
NE CD3-1
(4)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states up to the Keystone state), he would have 289 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics.


To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College.

3 New Hampshire
 is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state for the former vice president. But because the line between New Hampshire and Pennsylvania creates an Electoral College tie (269-269), Pennsylvania is the tipping point state for Trump. It is where the president surpasses 270 electoral votes. Collectively, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania are the tipping point states.

Although this series of surveys from Fox catches the eye, it did little to shake up what has become apparent in the order of states on the Electoral College Spectrum here at FHQ. Florida jumped up one cell switching places with still-underpolled Nevada and Texas swapped spots with Iowa. Both, given the new polls, moved in Biden's direction.

And while the order above did not change all that much, the Watch List continues to grow. Florida joined New Hampshire, Nebraska's 2nd congressional district and Pennsylvania as states on the cusp of pushing over into the Lean Biden category. All remain toss ups as FHQ defines it -- below a five point margin -- but the trajectory of change in each is toward Biden. Georgia, too, joined the Watch List. The Biden-favorable survey from the Peach state was enough to bring it within a point of the partisan line, the line separating Biden and Trump states. Georgia and Ohio are now the two states that could break the 352-186 Biden lead in the electoral college tally that has been in place since FHQ began these updates.

Not that that is what matters. Change, as was explained in yesterday's post, will come when it comes. When they occur around here, the changes tend to be fairly durable. But at this point, Georgia hopping the partisan line into Biden's column is more likely than Ohio pushing over to Trump's side.


--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State
Switch
Florida
from Toss Up Biden
to Lean Biden
Georgia
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Biden
Louisiana
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Maine
from Lean Biden
to Strong Biden
Mississippi
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Nebraska CD1
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Nebraska CD2
from Toss Up Biden
to Lean Biden
New Hampshire
from Toss Up Biden
to Lean Biden
Ohio
from Toss Up Biden
to Toss Up Trump
Pennsylvania
from Toss Up Biden
to Lean Biden
South Carolina
from Lean Trump
to Strong Trump
Utah
from Lean Trump
to Strong Trump
Virginia
from Strong Biden
to Lean Biden
Wisconsin
from Lean Biden
to Toss Up Biden
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll the thad Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was  too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.


--
Related posts:
The Electoral College Map (6/25/20)

The Electoral College Map (6/24/20)

The Electoral College Map (6/23/20)