"Democrats are weighing whether they can use their 2028 primary calendar to try to rebuild their party’s strength in the South amid aggressive GOP gerrymanders.
"As Democratic National Committee members meet in D.C. this week to discuss which states will lead the next presidential nominating contest, the GOP push to dismantle majority-Black districts and dilute Democrats’ power across the South is ratcheting up the selection stakes. Some members are now advocating for two southern states to make the cut as the Callais ruling adds fresh urgency to Democrats’ long-running debate over how to amplify the voices of Black voters who have long been the party’s backbone."
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Noteworthy: A couple of thoughts about this...
- Even before the Callais decision came down, it was true that approaching a majority of the states -- five of 12 -- that applied for a waiver from the Rules and Bylaws Committee (RBC) to hold an early contest in 2028 were from the south. That has not changed following the decision. As I said at our sister site, FHQ Plus back in January: "The only other mysteries are if there will be a fifth state and which state that may be. The overrepresentation of southern states in the pool may give the region an advantage in claiming a second spot among the would-be five early states. Granted, that is far from guaranteed." Post-Callais, that overrepresentation of the South positions the DNC to make a statement with the calendar. [Side note: Bear in mind also that the DNC attempted to get two southern states into the early window for 2024 as well.]
- As a counterpoint, however, look at the 2028 presidential primary calendar and consider the southern states that have applied for early state status...
- North Carolina? Super Tuesday.
- Tennessee? Super Tuesday.
- Virginia? Super Tuesday.
- Georgia? Regardless of the partisan affiliation of the next Secretary of State in the Peach state, they can easily -- and without penalty from either party -- set a Super Tuesday date for the Georgia primary.
- And hey, throw in Alabama, Arkansas, Oklahoma and Texas? All Super Tuesday primaries.
There is an argument that the calendar is already frontloaded with southern states, a remnant of Republican efforts across the region to create an "SEC primary" ahead of 2016. The only thing that separates those states above from the early window on the 2028 calendar is at most a week and possibly even just a weekend before Super Tuesday. That does not preclude the RBC from granting early state waivers to two southern states, but such a move may or may not be superfluous,given how southern-tinged the front of the calendar already is.
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