"Republicans in Concord draft bill to counter DNC move against NH primary"

Adam Sexton at WMUR on the backlash in New Hampshire to the new DNC calendar rules for 2028:

"In the wake of a vote against the New Hampshire primary by the Democratic National Committee, Republicans at the State House are drafting a bill to tie taking part in the primary to access for the November ballot for presidential nominees.

"Republicans are preparing a legislative counterpunch to the DNC's move against New Hampshire's first-in-the-nation presidential primary status."

"'The Democratic National Committee can make whatever sets of rules that they want in respect to our New Hampshire primary,' said state Rep. Joe Sweeney, R-Salem. 'We as a state can also make any sets of rules that we want in respect to who has ballot access in the state of New Hampshire.'

"Sweeney is drafting a bill to tie November election ballot access for presidential nominees to participation in New Hampshire's presidential primary."

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Noteworthy: This is the first of what will be many, many (formal) responses to the new DNC calendar rules recently passed by the party's Rules and Bylaws Committee in the Granite state. It is also, as Kathy Sullivan noted in the Sexton's piece, unconstitutional. The matter of which side takes precedence in these matters where state laws conflict with national party rules has been repeatedly litigated over the years. And the courts more often than not side with the parties. It is they who ultimately get to determine the rules of their nominations (with some limits). But yes, that has been complicated over the years by states becoming more directly involved in the process via the state-funded primary. 

But this move by Rep. Sweeney is trying to win a battle while likely losing the war. If this draft bill were to become law, it would likely further erode the first-in-the-nation primary law by putting even more space between the state government and the state parties on the issue than the DNC calendar rules already have over the last two cycles. 

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Democrats devise their own super penalty for primary calendar violations 

The Rules and Bylaws Committee adopted new enhanced penalties to punish states and candidates who break timing rules in 2028

"Has New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation law outlived its usefulness?"

UNH political scientist Dante Scala provides some Granite state perspective on the the FITN presidential primary:

"New Hampshire’s political elites quickly pointed fingers after a Democratic National Committee panel voted Friday to strip the Granite State of its first-in-the-nation status on the presidential nomination calendar. Republican elites blamed Democrats for the Rules and Bylaws Committee decision. Democratic elites blamed their national party leadership. What neither side did, but should, is consider the following: On their watch, New Hampshire has become much less capable of defending its role in the process."

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Noteworthy: Look, I would like to just copy and paste all of Scala's piece here. It is such helpful grounding for understanding the place of New Hampshire's presidential primary in an ever-changing nomination system and the utility of the infamous law that has protected its early position in the process for decades. Highly recommended piece. Go read it.

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Democrats devise their own super penalty for primary calendar violations 

The Rules and Bylaws Committee adopted new enhanced penalties to punish states and candidates who break timing rules in 2028

At FHQ Plus: Let's talk about the Democrats' 2028 presidential primary calendar, part one

Over at FHQ Plus...

So, the Democrats have a calendar for 2028.

Well, the Rules and Bylaws Committee (RBC) has adopted calendar rules and waivers for six states to hold early presidential primaries on the following dates:

• South Carolina, January 22, 2028
• Nevada, February 1, 2028
• New Hampshire, February 8, 2028
• New Mexico, February 15, 2028
• Michigan, February 22, 2028
• Virginia, February 29, 2028

Now those rules, as part of the amended delegate selection rules, the early state waivers, an updated Call for the Convention and amendments to the Charter and Bylaws all head to the full Democratic National Committee (DNC) for final approval next month at the party’s summer meeting in Austin, TX. Yes, that is another hurdle the complete rules package for 2028 has to first clear.

No, it is unlikely that there will be much resistance or that any that arises will be enough to derail the rules package the RBC will report to the full body. For example, the 2024 calendar rules and waivers were brought before the DNC in February 2023 and while the package was opened to discussion on the floor of the meeting, the rules were adopted as is.

A cycle earlier, in 2018, when the proposed delegate selection rules came before the full DNC, the calendar process was operating under the old (pre-2024) rules — the early calendar positions of Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina were written directly into the rules — there was more discussion than there was in 2023. But it was not over the calendar. Rather, the heated discussion at the DNC meeting that adopted rules that cycle was over the superdelegate changes recommended by the Unity Reform Commission with language later crafted by the RBC. There, some amendments were heard and adopted, but they were minor in scope.

A similar discussion, if not debate, may arise in Austin. There may even be some subtle changes made to the rules package. But, again, that is unlikely to include changes to the calendar proposal above. That, or something close to it, will be the schedule that commences the voting phase of the Democratic presidential nomination process in 2028.

But before weighing on the impact of that calendar of primaries and caucuses for 2028 (the future part two of this series of posts), I want to talk some about the Friday session of the RBC meeting. There were a number of state-level responses, both jubilant and defiant, from state parties and the local media and a number of national accounts that mainly focused on the divisions on the committee (and in the broader party coalition) over which state should be first. However, to FHQ’s mind, there were, big surprise, a few things that flew under the radar that deserve some attention. I will focus on those items over at FHQ Plus.

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The Annotated 2028 Presidential Primary Calendar 

Tracking the evolution of the timeline of delegate selection events that will determine the next presidential nominees

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"Iowa Dems call 2028 presidential calendar snub a 'slap in the face'"

Brianne Pfannestiel at the Des Moines Register shares the reaction in Iowa as Hawkeye state Democrats are on the outside looking in on the early calendar again for 2028:

"Iowa have been shut out of an officially sanctioned spot on the 2028 presidential primary calendar, despite national Democrats expanding the map to include two additional early voting states.

"The Rules and Bylaws Committee, the powerful arm of the Democratic National Committee that sets the presidential nominating calendar, voted Friday, July 24 to again bypass Iowa and instead start the 2028 primary process in South Carolina."

...

"But even as they [the Iowa Democratic Party] left the door wide open to holding a rogue first-in-the-nation caucus in defiance of the national party, Iowa’s next steps remain unclear.

"[Iowa Democratic Party Chair Rita] Hart and other Iowa Democratic Party leaders said Friday they intend to first focus on the 2026 winning elections."

...

“'We’ll have more to say after November,' Hart said."

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Robin Opsahl from the Iowa Capital Dispatch with a quote from former Iowa RBC member, Scott Brennan: 

"Scott Brennan, an Iowan serving on the DNC and a former member of the Rules and Bylaws Committee, said in a news conference Friday he expected Iowa would not be chosen in the early window once again. Brennan lost his spot on the RBC in 2025, after the election of DNC Chair Ken Martin earlier that year.

“'Look, I’m not surprised by this decision,' Brennan said. 'It was probably decided 18 months ago when the new members of the Rules and Bylaws Committee were appointed by Chair Martin. … When we lost the White House, we did make a good faith effort to share our concerns, but clearly, our case was not heard by this committee or Chair Martin.'”

More on the RBC membership decisions by DNC Chair Martin here.

...

More from Hart via Iowa Capital Dispatch:

"'I had this conversation with Ken Martin and with some of the members of the RBC, that it’s pretty hard to defend any kind of situation that we’re in right now,” Hart said. “When we got slapped last time, when we worked in cooperation with the DNC and lost our representation on the RBC, in comparison to other states that did not cooperate and got rewarded. So it’s really hard to make a case to these people that say, you know, ‘why work with the DNC going forward?’ But I would say that that is a conversation that is not doesn’t need to be taking place right now. As we, when we get to November, and we have some newly elected Democratic officials, they’re gonna have some things to say about that, along with the rest of our Democrats.'"

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Others in Iowa politics also weighed in: 

Democratic US Senate nominee Josh Turek:

"Speaking with reporters after a joint event in Des Moines, Turek was asked whether Iowa should go first regardless of the committee's decision.

"'Yes,' Turek said. 'Iowa law is really clear. We go first. And in the U.S. Senate I’m there to represent Iowa and Iowans regardless over any other interest or group.'"

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Democrats devise their own super penalty for primary calendar violations 

The Rules and Bylaws Committee adopted new enhanced penalties to punish states and candidates who break timing rules in 2028

"Democrats move Va. up to 6th state for presidential primary"

Michael Martz at the Richmond Times-Dispatch with the reaction in the commonwealth to Virginia's inclusion in the Democrats' early window for 2028:

"Virginia voters won't have to wait until Super Tuesday to pick a Democratic presidential candidate in 2028.

"The Democratic National Committee's Rules and Bylaws Committee proposed Virginia as the sixth state on the early presidential primary calendar in 2028, with the election scheduled on Feb. 29 — leap day. It will follow Democratic presidential primaries in South Carolina, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico and Michigan under the calendar that the committee adopted on Friday.

"The decision means that Virginia won't have to compete with other states for the attention of presidential candidates, as it did on Super Tuesday in early March."

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The reaction from Democratic Party of Virginia Chair Lamont Bagby: 

"We are appreciative of the Rules and Bylaws Committee's decision to recommend that Virginia receive a waiver to become an early primary state in the upcoming Presidential primary calendar. Virginia reflects the diversity. priorities, and experiences of voters across the country.

"Virginia voters have a long history of testing and then electing exceptional leaders. We will now have the opportunity to do that in an early and influential Democratic Presidential primary and that will help set the stage to elect a Democratic President."

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The Annotated 2028 Presidential Primary Calendar 

Tracking the evolution of the timeline of delegate selection events that will determine the next presidential nominees

"Michigan Selected for Early Window of DNC’s 2028 Primary Calendar"

Michigan Democratic Party press release:

"Today, the Democratic National Committee announced that Michigan was selected by the Democratic National Committee’s Rules and Bylaws Committee to hold its primary election in the early window of the 2028 presidential primary calendar. In response, Michigan Democratic Party Chair Curtis Hertel shared the following statement:

“'The road to the White House runs through Michigan, and we are proud to be in the early window of the 2028 presidential primary calendar. Michigan is the most diverse battleground state in the nation, and a candidate who can win here can win nationwide. We thank the DNC’s Rules and Bylaws Committee for recognizing Michigan’s importance, and we look forward to ensuring Michigan voters make their voices heard. So goes Michigan, so goes the nation.'”

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Noteworthy: Currently, the Michigan presidential primary is scheduled by state law for the fourth Tuesday in February. That falls on February 22, 2028, the date the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee slotted the state into on the party's 2028 presidential primary calendar.

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The Annotated 2028 Presidential Primary Calendar 

Tracking the evolution of the timeline of delegate selection events that will determine the next presidential nominees

"National Democratic committee recommends New Mexico move up on the calendar for presidential primary"

Joshua Bowling at Source NM has the latest on one of the new states added to the Democrats' 2028 presidential primary calendar:

"The Democratic National Committee’s Rules and Bylaws Committee on Friday voted to catapult New Mexico’s 2028 presidential primary election to fourth in the country.

...

"In a statement Friday, Lujan Grisham said she appreciated the DNC committee members taking her pitch seriously.

“'For years, I’ve said the same thing: you cannot show up for Hispanic voters in November after Democrats have already picked a nominee. You have to engage with them from the start. Today, national Democrats agreed,' she wrote. 'New Mexico is the most Hispanic state in America, and we’re the only border state in this early window. Now, candidates who want to be taken seriously on immigration and the border are going to have to come to New Mexico and earn it.'

“'Making New Mexico an early primary state will help put our state on the national stage, increase investment in our communities, expand our tourism economy and give New Mexicans a stronger voice in shaping the policies of our nation,' Lujan Grisham said."

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Noteworthy: The New Mexico presidential primary, consolidated with those for other offices, is currently scheduled for June 6, 2028. State government is under unified Democratic control and will have to change state law to accommodate the shift to February. Recent efforts -- in 2015 and 2020 -- to move the primary have failed, the former to move the entire consolidated primary from June to March and the latter to create a separate presidential primary election in January. It remains to be seen which route of the two decision makers in the Land of Enchantment will pursue in their efforts to meet the criteria of the rules handed down by the Rules and Bylaws Committee (and ultimately the DNC).

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The Annotated 2028 Presidential Primary Calendar 

Tracking the evolution of the timeline of delegate selection events that will determine the next presidential nominees

"New Hampshire politicians defiant after DNC picks South Carolina for first-in-the-nation presidential primary"

Steven Porter at the Boston Globe on New Hampshire Democrats now staring down a conflict between state law and DNC rules that now slot the Granite state presidential primary third:

"New Hampshire politicians from both major parties reacted with outrage and defiance on Friday after an influential rulemaking body of the Democratic National Committee selected South Carolina to host first party-approved primary on the 2028 presidential nominating calendar, once again bumping New Hampshire.

"The DNC’s plan, which seems poised for final approval in August, calls for New Hampshire to vote third, after Nevada. But that would contradict a state law that requires New Hampshire’s top election official to schedule the state-run presidential primary to occur at least seven days before any similar election.

"New Hampshire Secretary of State David Scanlan, a Republican, said the state will follow its law and maintain a first-in-the-nation tradition that has endured for more than a century. In other words, Granite Staters will hold their primary vote first in 2028 regardless of what the DNC’s calendar says, just as they did in the 2024 cycle."

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New Hampshire Democratic Party Chair Ray Buckley's statement on the Rules and Bylaws Committee decision: 

Today's vote shows that many party insiders have learned nothing from 2024. New Hampshire has a proven track record of testing our candidates with a rigorous, fair, and efficient process, yet those qualities did not prevail. This committee's vote does not change the realities governing New Hampshire's primary, which are beyond the control of both this committee and our state party. Democrats' guiding North Star should be winning general elections, and New Hampshire Democrats will get back to work focusing on the 2026 elections and addressing the significant challenges facing America's overwhelmed working class. Today's vote moves the party further away from that objective.

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New Hampshire's all-Democratic congressional delegation also weighed in: 

The Democratic National Committee's decision today is wrong for Democrats, wrong for New Hampshire, and wrong for the country. New Hampshire's First in the Nation primary is a tested proving ground in a closely contested swing state that forges better candidates and better presidents -- and despite what DNC insiders say, that hasn't changed. As a state with highly engaged voters, we put candidates through their paces and thoroughly vet them. And our small size means that actually meeting and talking to voters takes precedence over super PACs or mega-donor-fueled campaigns. Regardless of today's vote, Granite Staters remain committed to the hard work of organizing and electing candidates who stand up for our Live Free or Die values.

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Democrats devise their own super penalty for primary calendar violations 

The Rules and Bylaws Committee adopted new enhanced penalties to punish states and candidates who break timing rules in 2028

"Nevada Democrats won't vote for president first in 2028. Here's what it means."

Mini Racker at the Nevada Independent on Nevada's place on the 2028 Democratic presidential primary calendar:

"Despite a hard-fought campaign to host the first presidential primary of 2028, Nevada Democrats lost out to South Carolina after a powerful Democratic National Committee panel voted on Friday. The state is instead scheduled to host the second early primary on Feb. 1, 2028.

"It's a major disappointment for Nevada proponents who looked forward to the Silver State getting intense attention from Democratic presidential candidates and an outsized role in setting the political agenda in the coming cycle."

...

"Nevada lost out on the opportunity by a vote of 26 to 19, with four members of the committee voting for New Hampshire. Many of Nevada's supporters were younger, newer members of the committee and those from Western states. Opponents raised concerns about Nevada's ability to name a winner on primary night, though Nevadans on the panel argued election reforms would address those worries."

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The reaction from the Nevada Democratic Party: 

Nevada State Democratic Party Chair Daniele Monroe-Moreno released the following statement in response to the Democratic National Committee Rules and Bylaws Committee recommending Nevada be Democrats’ first presidential primary in the West:

“We’ve been consistent all along, putting Nevada first best sets our party up for success. Nevada is the broad coalition of diverse voices—Latino, Black, AANHPI, and Native American as well as white working-class voters—our party must win back if we’re serious about flipping the White House in 2028.

“As an early state and the first true test of a candidate’s ability to win in a general election, we will play a critical role in the nomination process.”

--

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The Annotated 2028 Presidential Primary Calendar 

Tracking the evolution of the timeline of delegate selection events that will determine the next presidential nominees

"South Carolina to be first-in-the-nation for Democrats’ 2028 presidential primary calendar"

Caitlin Byrd at the Post and Courier looks at South Carolina's selection as the nation's first Democratic contest in 2028 from the Palmetto state:

"The road to the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination will begin in South Carolina.

"The Democratic National Committee’s Rules and Bylaws Committee voted July 24 to place the Palmetto State first on its 2028 nominating calendar, giving its voters the initial say in what is expected to be a sprawling and competitive primary.

"Before the vote, South Carolina Democratic Party Chair Christale Spain framed the state’s early-primary role as essential to the party’s broader ambitions in a region it has struggled to win.

“'The South is not the past. It is the future,' Spain told the committee. 'And if we are serious about changing this country, Democrats have to start winning in the South.'"

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South Carolina Democratic Party Chair Christale Spain on the selection: 

South Carolina Democrats are grateful to the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee for again selecting South Carolina to lead off the 2028 Democratic presidential primary. This decision demonstrates our party’s commitment to competing in the South and recognizes the importance of black and rural voters in shaping the Democratic Party’s future. Additionally, the committee valued our flexibility in setting the primary date and the certainty of conducting a well-run primary.

This moment belongs to the volunteers, organizers, county parties, activists, and candidates who have worked tirelessly to build our party and ensure every voice is heard. Time and time again, South Carolina Democrats have shown that we know how to choose a presidential nominee who can unite our party and win in November.

The process to determine which states will go early in the primary calendar has been extremely competitive, and we are honored to join five additional diverse states that together will lead our nominating process and deliver the strongest, most competitive nominee in 2028 that will deliver for working families across this country. Together, we are ready to deliver for the Democratic Party and the American people.

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The Annotated 2028 Presidential Primary Calendar 

Tracking the evolution of the timeline of delegate selection events that will determine the next presidential nominees

"DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee Proposes Early States for 2028 Democratic Presidential Nominating Calendar"

DNC press release:

Committee members highlighted the calendar’s ability to battle-test the field of candidates with a rigorous, fair, and efficient mix of early states.

Today, at the July meeting of the Rules and Bylaws Committee (RBC), the RBC voted to select six states for the early window of the 2028 Democratic presidential nominating calendar: South Carolina, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Michigan, and Virginia. At the meeting, the RBC voted to issue the waivers to each of the six early window states, inviting them to hold nominating contests prior to Super Tuesday in the following order:

• South Carolina, January 22, 2028
• Nevada, February 1, 2028
• New Hampshire, February 8, 2028
• New Mexico, February 15, 2028
• Michigan, February 22, 2028
• Virginia, February 29, 2028

RBC Co-Chairs Minyon Moore and James Roosevelt, Jr. released the following statement:

“The Rules and Bylaws Committee has proposed a rigorous, fair, and efficient calendar that will win Democrats back the White House in 2028. After months of hard work and deliberation, we are very proud of the calendar that the RBC has put forward — which is also the most diverse calendar Democrats have ever had for an open nominating contest. We look forward to presenting the proposal to our colleagues across the DNC for their approval in a few weeks.”

DNC Chair Ken Martin released the following statement:

“I commend the RBC for their diligent work and commitment to a fair and transparent selection process. As a result of their hard work, today, Democrats took a critical step toward retaking the White House in 2028 by ensuring we have the strongest possible nominee.”

Additional Context on the Early Window Process:

• During the meeting, RBC members debated the potential early window options and ultimately determined that the six states selected best fit the goals laid out by the committee: a rigorous, fair, and efficient calendar that will produce the strongest possible nominee to win back the White House.
• The RBC also chose to amend the Committee’s previously adopted resolution on the Principles and Procedures for Review of the 2028 Democratic Party Presidential Primary Calendar. The amended resolution allowed them to select a sixth state for the early window, instead of only 4 or 5. Members explained this change was a reflection of the numerous strong applications and their goal to create the best early window possible from their available options.
• The RBC’s decision will now be put before the full DNC for a vote at the DNC’s summer meeting, August 13-15.
• The RBC’s decision comes after many months of careful planning and deliberation by the RBC, including:
• Deliberately chosen criteria for selection and an open application process
• Thoughtful consideration of applications and presentations by states
• Thorough review of the rules for the process
• The full meeting was livestreamed and can be found on the DNC’s YouTube page here.

Background on Selected States:

• Battle-testing Our Candidates: The early window delivers on RBC’s goal of a battle-tested nominee both with key battleground states and tests with a comprehensive range of voters key to winning back the White House.
• Key battleground states are prominently featured in the early window with both Nevada and Michigan.
• Other early window states feature competitive downballot races and swing voter populations with New Hampshire, New Mexico, South Carolina, and Virginia.
• Comprehensive Test with Diverse Voters: The early window provides a comprehensive test with diverse groups of voters that are key to winning a general election. In fact, it is the most diverse open field early window in Democratic Party history, massively increasing diverse representation from 2020 early window states.
• Black Voters: 4.6 million Black people live in the early window states, an increase of 2.8 million.
• Latino Voters: 4.2 million Latinos live in the early window states, an increase of 2.4 million.
• AANHPI Voters: 1.4 million Asian Americans, Native Hawaiians, and Pacific Islander Americans live in the early window states, an increase of 900k.
• Native American Voters: 370k Native Americans live in the early window states, an increase of 280k.
• Non-college Voters: 14 million Americans in the early window states do not have a college degree, an increase of 7.7 million.
• Young Voters: More than 2.8 million young (18-24) people live in the early window states, an increase of more than 1.6 million.
• Union Voters: More than 1.1 million union workers live in the early window states, an increase of more than 700k.
• Veterans/Military Voters: More than 2.1 million veteran and military voters live in the early window states, an increase of more than 1.2 million.
• Keeping the Contest Open, Affordable: The early window is open and affordable for candidates — ensuring voters choose our 2028 nominee, not money.
• The earliest portion of the window creates an open field, and does not box out any candidates based solely on warchest and name ID.
• South Carolina has a very affordable media market, with estimated weekly ad cost that is among the lowest of any of the early states.
• The relatively inexpensive Reno media market serves the vast majority of Nevadans outside of the Las Vegas media market.
• Both South Carolina and New Hampshire are geographically compact states, making travel more affordable and accessible.

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More on this to come over the weekend at FHQ Plus.

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Democrats devise their own super penalty for primary calendar violations 

The Rules and Bylaws Committee adopted new enhanced penalties to punish states and candidates who break timing rules in 2028

At FHQ Plus: The coming 2028 primary calendar vote from the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee

Over at FHQ Plus...

The Rules and Bylaws Committee (RBC) of the Democratic National Committee opened up the first of two days of meetings on Thursday, July 23 and it looks as if the panel has cleared the way for further, if not final, consideration of the states that will make up the early calendar lineup on the party’s 2028 presidential primary calendar. With work on the delegate selection rules and Call for the Convention now done, the RBC can now return its focus to determining which states will kick off the presidential primary process in a year and a half or so.

Over at FHQ yesterday, I shared some quick thoughts on where the process is and what seems to be coming in reaction to Shane Goldmacher’s reporting at The New York Times. But DNC Chair Ken Martin led off day one of this RBC meeting in Washington with some remarks that are worth incorporating into how one might approach any calendar vote that might be coming on Friday. I dig into all of that over at FHQ Plus.

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Democrats devise their own super penalty for primary calendar violations

The Rules and Bylaws Committee adopted new enhanced penalties to punish states and candidates who break timing rules in 2028

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"South Carolina and Nevada Fight to Kick Off Democrats’ 2028 Presidential Calendar"

Shane Goldmacher at The New York Times has the latest on the two frontrunners for the Democrats' top primary calendar spot for 2028:

"South Carolina and Nevada have emerged as the two front-runners to begin the 2028 Democratic presidential nominating calendar, but their jockeying has grown acrimonious and pitted Black and Latino party leaders against each other, according to interviews with more than a dozen party officials involved in the discussions.

"A powerful panel of 49 insiders of the Democratic National Committee is set to meet this week in Washington to sketch out the order of the early-state calendar. The full party body would then vote next month to finalize the choices."

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Noteworthy: There is a lot in Goldmacher's piece, but let me offer a few thoughts on where the process to select the four or five states that will make up the Democrats' 2028 presidential primary calendar is:

1. Remember, there may or may not be a vote on this matter at the Rules and Bylaws Committee (RBC) meeting this week. 

2. Still, South Carolina and Nevada seemingly lead for the top slot. And while it is good to have that progress report, it is also true that around this time last year the chatter was about Michigan, New Hampshire and Nevada having a leg up for first-in-the-nation. Things change. But importantly, time is running out (even if the RBC vote is delayed beyond this week).

3a. It is striking that New Hampshire is not in the mix for the first spot. In some ways, the Granite state's absence is understandable. The 2024 experience between the state party in New Hampshire and the national party was, well, rocky and Democrats in the Granite state broke the rules before they ultimately complied with them. That is not to say that this is retribution on the part of the DNC. The support seemingly just is not there on a revamped RBC. And it is notable that workarounds like pairing New Hampshire and Nevada's primaries on the same day are not being floated this time around as in 2022. But New Hampshire remains in good position to be granted a waiver for some spot in the early window, but probably not first.

3b. That New Hampshire appears to be on the outside looking in with respect to the leadoff spot suggests a number of things. That the DNC is up to repeating the same fight for 2028. That the national party feels comfortable that the harsher penalties it is likely to adopt next month in Austin will keep rogue states in check.

4. The fifth spot, according to Goldmacher's sources, seems to be coming down to a couple of blue states (with unified Democratic control of state government) with other states from their respective regions vying for the top spot. In fact, it appears that the fifth slot may hinge on whether South Carolina or Nevada goes first. If South Carolina gets the nod, then New Mexico would join Nevada and give the early window two western states. If it is Nevada, then Virginia would, alongside South Carolina, be a second southern state before Super Tuesday. 

5. There appears to be some friction on the RBC about the timing of this decision. Some members of the panel appear poised to vote on the early calendar lineup now while others want to wait. As Goldmacher writes about the former group:

Others believe that waiting could cause a mangled mess, because it would probably mean that candidates would announce their bids before a final calendar had been set.

That really is not a good reason to vote now. Prospective candidates are already doing the things that presidential candidates do before announcing their candidacies. Voting to finalize the calendar now is not going to affect any of that one way or another. Those announcements are an arbitrary point in the process. And regardless, the calendar rules may be set ahead of the announcement window, but the calendar is not set until states and state parties do their part next year. I mean, that is FrontloadingHQ 101.

And as I argued earlier today, waiting until after the midterms likely maximizes the ways in which the pieces available to the RBC can be moved around in the early window. Or alternatively, the states considered "may not be limited all that much by a decision now, but where those pieces could be moved around in the early window of the primary calendar would be greatly constrained."

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Democrats devise their own super penalty for primary calendar violations 

The Rules and Bylaws Committee adopted new enhanced penalties to punish states and candidates who break timing rules in 2028

Are they or aren't they? Not so fast on those 2028 DNC calendar rules.

Yesterday FHQ put reporting from the Associated Press that Democrats could vote later this week on which states will fill out the party's early state lineup for 2028 into the context of what a decision now may mean for which states are likely to make the cut. 

What was missing from the AP account was just how much weight that could was carrying. Adam Sexton at WMUR in Manchester, NH shed a little more light on that: 

"There is a lot of uncertainty right now over what the Democratic National Committee's Rules & Bylaws Committee will do when it potentially starts voting on the order of its presidential nominating calendar later this week.

"'It could be this week, could be the next couple of weeks,' said Ray Buckley, chairman of the New Hampshire Democratic Party. 'It could be in the next couple months. That's really up to the committee to decide.'"

Buckley is not only chairman of the New Hampshire Democratic Party but a member of the Rules and Bylaws Committee as well. FHQ would not say that the chairman is throwing cold water on the notion of a vote this week to determine which states might get waivers from the party to hold early contests in 2028 and when those contests will be. However, Buckley is not saying that things are full steam ahead on that front either. 

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Noteworthy: So what? What does it matter if there is a vote on the calendar rules now, in two weeks or two months? 

Well, again, a vote now, as FHQ argued in yesterday's post, takes a number of options off the table. The states, among those 12 that applied for early status with the DNC, may not be limited all that much by a decision now, but where those pieces could be moved around in the early window of the primary calendar would be greatly constrained. And only time, not to mention the certainty of the midterm results, can resolve that. 

In a nutshell, that is what the members of the Rules and Bylaws Committee are wrestling with: Decide now and move on or wait and use the information from the midterms to better tailor an early calendar order. Clearly the latter would represent in many respects a repeat of the party's process for the 2024 calendar. And while it has been a while, it has been reported that DNC Chair Frank Martin seems to be pushing for an earlier decision. As Politico put it in a piece nearly a year ago:

One DNC member, granted anonymity to discuss the issue candidly, said DNC Chair Ken Martin told them he wanted the primary calendar to be sorted out quickly, potentially as soon as the end of 2025 or early 2026, and has urged rules members to expect related meetings throughout this fall.

No, a decision on the calendar did not come in 2025 or early 2026, but that does indicate some pressure from the chair for a decision earlier rather than later. That may factor into the timeline for a calendar decision.

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Related at FHQ Plus (subscription)...

Some additional thoughts on the Democrats' recent 2028 primary calendar meeting 

Learning, incentives, appearance versus reality and the limits of the national parties in calendar crafting

At FHQ Plus: Is the early 2028 Republican presidential primary calendar set?

Over at FHQ Plus...

The early 2028 calendar: Democratic change, Republican stability

The running assumption with respect to the 2028 presidential primary calendar — the early window of it anyway — is that the Democratic National Committee will reprise its 2024 calendar process and, at a bare minimum, explore changes to the states that will comprise the lineup of early contests in the presidential nomination process for the coming cycle. Actually, that is not an assumption at all. Democrats are in the midst of that review process with pitches for early state status from state parties involved now in the rearview. And a decision could come this week.

To the extent there is one, then, the assumption is across the aisle with Republicans and their calendar maneuvering — or lack thereof — ahead of the 2028 cycle. Reporting thus far has indicated that the GOP has adopted and appears to be sticking with a calendar rules package that is more traditional than that of their Democratic counterparts. In other words, the assumption has been that the Republican National Committee is very likely to sign off on and stick with the traditional lineup of early state contests: Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada.

The ultimate Republican rules will not likely specify it — they have not in past cycles and do not in the current (convention-adopted) rules for 2028 — but the expectation is that Iowa’s caucuses will precede the New Hampshire primary and that the Republican contests in Nevada and South Carolina will follow thereafter in some order. Yet, that expectation may not match reality in the end and for a variety of reasons. Over at FHQ Plus, I will explore those reasons that rules-based expectations may or may not be reflected in the eventual lineup of states on the 2028 presidential primary calendar.

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Related at FHQ Plus (subscription)...

The Annotated 2028 Presidential Primary Calendar

Tracking the evolution of the timeline of delegate selection events that will determine the next presidential nominees

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"Democrats could take preliminary vote on their 2028 presidential primary calendar later this week"

Meg Kinnard and Joey Cappelletti at The Associated Press share the latest on the Democrats' efforts to nail down the early states for 2028:

"Democrats could vote as early as this week on the order of their primary calendar for the 2028 presidential election, although the decision wouldn’t be final until the full Democratic National Committee agrees.

The panel that sets the party’s voting order could make that determination as early as Friday when it meets in Washington, two people with knowledge of the party’s process but not authorized to discuss it publicly told The Associated Press on Monday.

The Rules and Bylaws Committee has been holding monthly meetings as it considers the order in which states will vote during the 2028 primaries. The panel has heard presentations from a dozen states hoping to kick off the party’s primaries and caucuses, including Iowa, Michigan, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina.

The calendar isn’t considered set until it’s approved by the full DNC, which is scheduled to meet in August."

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Noteworthy: Let's start at the end. The calendar rules are not set until they are approved by the DNC. As the Democrats' 2024 calendar process demonstrated, rules are one thing, implementing them is another. If the calendar was set when the DNC adopted the rules, then the New Hampshire primary would have been the same day as the Nevada primary and the Georgia primary would have occupied a spot in mid-February. 

It did not work out way.

That aside, there is a bigger point about the 2028 presidential primary calendar that is missing in the AP account. If the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee is making a decision at this point, before the midterms, then it likely means that of the 12 states who applied for early status, those currently lacking Democratic control of state government are out of the mix. That group includes Georgia, North Carolina and Tennessee. And it is not exactly a revelation. Additionally, it is unlikely that the RBC reverses course on the Iowa's caucuses. Again, that is not really a surprise. 

And that leaves a handful of blue states -- Delaware, Illinois, New Mexico and Virginia -- and four of the five states initially granted waivers in 2023, three of which ended up in the early window -- Michigan, Nevada and South Carolina. All three and New Hampshire check more of the boxes in the criteria for early state selection than the four blue states. But that latter group is most likely to fill any fifth slot for which the RBC may grant an early state waiver.

It is a largely status quo group of states relative to 2024 with some lingering mystery about the order. 

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Related at FHQ Plus (subscription)...

Now we know which states they are looking at 

Some thoughts on the 2028 Democratic primary calendar process now that the deadline for state parties to apply with the DNC has come and gone

"Would You Let New Mexico Pick the President?"

Jesús Rodríguez at The New Yorker on the Democrats' efforts to settle on a lead-off state for 2028:

"Democrats are deciding what kind of party they want to be, but first they have to decide who gets to decide. Since January, twelve states have been trying to court the Rules and Bylaws Committee, insisting that their primary is the one that will determine a Democratic Presidential candidate who can beat the Republican heir to the maga movement. This has turned the discussion, at least in part, into a competition over which state is most like the rest of the nation, as several officials and party chairs told me. 'Nevada is a microcosm of the United States, with its diverse population,' the Nevada senator Catherine Cortez Masto said. 'I think you get a microcosm of the Democratic Party here,' Representative Sarah McBride, one of Delaware’s biggest boosters since the Bidens, said of the literal First State. 'We are a state, I think, that is the melting pot for the country,' Anderson Clayton, the chair of the North Carolina Democratic Party, said. 'We look like America,' Curtis Hertel, the chair of the Michigan Democratic Party, said. 'It’s a country of fifty states, but Georgia is the best representation of the diversity of our party,' Charlie Bailey, who chairs the Georgia Democrats, said.

"But the contest over the first-in-the-nation primaries has also become a proxy war over the future of the Party. The D.N.C.’s decision, expected by late summer, could have a significant effect on the 2028 cycle—from the crop of campaign staffers who can afford to relocate, to the ability of small campaigns to break through in large media markets. Although Iowa and New Hampshire haven’t always picked candidates that go on to win the Presidency, the early victors get to fly out of Des Moines and Manchester with an extremely valuable spoil: momentum, the type that an inert political party might need against a major popular movement. 'The issue here is about the stakes in this election, in 2028,' the New Hampshire senator Maggie Hassan, who won her seat in 2016 by a thousand and seventeen votes, told me. 'We have to win. We have to reverse Trumpism.'"

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Noteworthy: This is a really nice, well-reported piece. But... [You knew there was going to be a but.]

But it is typically gauzy media account in how it approaches this "battle" within the Democratic Party. Rodríguez goes heavy on diversity and representation, which are important! Each are among the many factors the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee is using to home in on the four or five states that will ultimately fill out the party's early window on the 2028 presidential primary calendar.

However, what's missing from the piece is arguably the most important component to the RBC's decision: Can the state/state party actually get the contest in question into the early window? And if one is going to report that a calendar decision is "expected by late summer," then not mentioning feasibility of primary/caucus movement -- even once! -- stands as a pretty glaring omission.

Why?

Well, if the end of summer is the point at which a decision on the calendar is to be made, then it really constrains the choice that is being made. It would limit the decision to states with contests already in the window or those that can easily get there. And not all 12 of the state parties that threw their hat in the ring for one of those early spots can get there. 

Not without the certainty that the midterms will likely bring. 

Control of state government come January 2027 will not be assured until then. And which party controls the levers of power will determine whether those states can or will be motivated to move a contest into February ahead of 2028. State governments hold that power in 10 of the 12 states vying for early slots in 2028. Iowa and South Carolina are the only exceptions.

These things matter. They may not be wholly determinative of the outcome, but they have an outsized role in how this is all going to shake out at some point later this year. 

And don't get FHQ started on this "two-hundred-and-seventy-thousand dollar fine" that the DNC will slap "on any state that staged an unauthorized competition." There is much more to it than that.

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Related at FHQ Plus (subscription)...

Now we know which states they are looking at 

Some thoughts on the 2028 Democratic primary calendar process now that the deadline for state parties to apply with the DNC has come and gone

DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee Votes to Strengthen Penalties for Violations of Early Window of Presidential Nominating Calendar

DNC press release:

At this week’s meeting, the DNC’s Rules and Bylaws Committee (RBC) voted to strengthen penalties for states that hold or candidates who participate in an unsanctioned contest in the early window of the presidential nominating calendar. The RBC is working diligently to establish a calendar that delivers the strongest possible nominee for president. These strengthened rules aim to enforce a fair and orderly nominating process by providing clarity for both states and candidates. Importantly, these changes are being implemented early in the process, prior to a decision on the calendar and before any candidates are in the field, to ensure fairness to all parties.

Highlights from the changes include:

• Increasing the delegates lost for states that host an unsanctioned contest from 50% to 100%, including all automatic delegates.
• Requiring campaigns and candidates to denounce any efforts to campaign on their behalf in unsanctioned contests, expanding existing requirements beyond just a ban on direct participation.
• Prohibiting candidate participation in DNC debates, if that candidate or their campaign violates the early window rules.
• Prohibiting candidates who violate the rules from earning delegates in any early window contest.
• Implementing a $270,000 fine for any state that hosts an unsanctioned contest.
• Setting clear deadlines for states to establish the dates of their contests.
• Preventing backtracking on penalties for states or candidates who violate the rules.

The strengthened penalties were added via amendments to Rule 21 of the 2028 Delegate Selection Rules. The full meeting was livestreamed and can be found on the DNC’s YouTube page here.

RBC Co-Chairs Minyon Moore and James Roosevelt, Jr. released the following statement:

“Today, the Rules and Bylaws Committee completed its work on the 2028 Delegate Selection Rules, creating a fair, efficient, and rigorous process to govern how we select our 2028 nominee. These newly-adopted rules strengthen the Delegate Selection Process to ensure maximum participation and clarity.”

DNC Chair Ken Martin released the following statement:

“Democrats must retake the White House in 2028. Today, the Rules and Bylaws Committee took important steps to bring us closer to that reality by creating a clear and orderly process to deliver the strongest possible nominee.”

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Related at FHQ Plus (subscription)...

Democrats devise their own super penalty for primary calendar violations

The Rules and Bylaws Committee adopted new enhanced penalties to punish states and candidates who break timing rules in 2028

Nevada's first in the nation bid earns major endorsements from national Latino, AAPI groups

Nevada Democratic Party press release:

Following last week’s Democratic National Committee Rules and Bylaws Committee meeting in Pittsburgh, Nevada’s bid to host the first in the nation presidential primary scored two major endorsements from leading national Democratic organizations representing prominent Latino and AAPI voices, CHC BOLD PAC and ASPIRE PAC. The organizations highlighted Nevada’s unparalleled diversity and emphasized that it is the one state in the early window where presidential campaigns can craft and pressure-test an economic message that resonates across the country, begin the work necessary to build support among working-class voters, and mobilize diverse communities who are critical to our success.

CHC BOLD PAC called on the DNC to elevate Latino voters by making Nevada the first presidential primary so candidates can prove they can win back working-class and Latino voters who voted for Trump in 2024 – many of whom are now regretting their vote. BOLD PAC pointed to Nevada’s nearly one million Latino residents, its status as a battleground state, and its proven track record of electing Democrats through strong Latino engagement, arguing that no state better reflects the diverse working-class Latino coalition Democrats need to win in 2028.

“If Democrats want to flip the White House in 2028 and continue winning up and down the ballot, we must prioritize Latino voices through early outreach and meaningful engagement in the presidential nominating process. No state better represents the broad coalition of diverse working-class voters that our party must build in order to be successful than Nevada.” – CHC BOLD PAC Chairwoman Linda Sánchez

ASPIRE PAC also endorsed Nevada’s bid, citing the state’s nation-leading AAPI population among early-state contenders and the growing political power of AAPI voters nationwide. Nevada being the First in the Nation primary would ensure presidential campaigns engage AAPI communities early and meaningfully, strengthening the Democratic Party’s relationship with one of the country’s fastest-growing electorates.

“The diversity of Nevada’s voters best represents the broad coalition that a viable 2028 Democratic presidential candidate must have to take back the White House. Candidates who can win the primary in a battleground state with significant Asian, Black, and Latino primary voters will have a solid path to the Democratic nomination and can defeat a Republican in the general election.” – ASPIRE PAC Chair Marilyn Strickland

These endorsements come after other prominent organizations including Latino Victory Fund, Somos Votantes, UNITE Here and AAPI Victory backed Nevada’s first in the nation campaign earlier this year, demonstrating the growing support as national organizations recognize that the Democratic presidential nominating process should begin in the battleground state that best reflects the country and the voters who will decide the next presidential election.

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Noteworthy: Nevada's endorsement from this pair of groups comes on the heels of South Carolina previously being endorsed by Democratic state party chairs across the Deep South and tapping Joe Biden to help make a 2028 push for first-in-the-nation status.

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Related at FHQ Plus (subscription)...

The Annotated 2028 Presidential Primary Calendar

Tracking the evolution of the timeline of delegate selection events that will determine the next presidential nominees

Gov. McKee's signature moves Rhode Island presidential primary to Super Tuesday

On Thursday, June 18, Governor Dan McKee (D) signed H 7090 and S 2491 into law. The identical measures move the presidential primary in Rhode Island from the fourth Tuesday in April up to the first Tuesday in March, Super Tuesday. 

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Noteworthy: The Rhode Island primary joins state-run primaries in 13 other states that are currently scheduled for Super Tuesday in 2028. The Ocean state returns to Super Tuesday for the first time since 2004.

Rhode Island also becomes the first state to officially move one way or the other on the primary calendar during the 2028 cycle. 

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Related:

2/9/26: Rhode Island legislation eyeing Super Tuesday presidential primary

2/18/26: Senate companion bill would also see Rhode Island presidential primary shifted to Super Tuesday

4/7/26: "Rhode Island primary election day could change in 2026 and 2028. Here's why."

4/30/26: Rhode Island House passes Super Tuesday presidential primary bill

6/4/26: Rhode Island Senate committee advances Super Tuesday presidential primary bill

6/4/26: Super Tuesday presidential primary bill unanimously passes Rhode Island Senate

6/11/26: Rhode Island Senate committee tees up concurrence vote on Super Tuesday presidential primary bill

6/12/26: On to the governor: Super Tuesday primary bills clear final legislative hurdles in Rhode Island

This action will be added to the annotated 2028 presidential primary calendar over at our sister site, FHQ Plus.

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Related at FHQ Plus (subscription)...

The Annotated 2028 Presidential Primary Calendar

Tracking the evolution of the timeline of delegate selection events that will determine the next presidential nominees