Wednesday, September 30, 2020

The Electoral College Map (9/30/20)

Update for September 30.


With the first presidential debate now in the rearview mirror, and the dust still settling on the free-for-all that took place Tuesday night in Cleveland, the sun did actually rise on Wednesday. And along with it came a smattering of state-level polls from five states currently outside of the toss up range. All were clearly in the field before the debate, so there will not yet be debate effects -- should any end up popping up -- in this update. There also were not any changes from a day ago; not on the map anyway.

To the polls...


Polling Quick Hits:
California
(Biden 59, Trump 32)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +29.88]
SurveyUSA was last in the field in the Golden state a month ago and both candidates benefited from the transition from an "adults" sample to a likely voter sample. But the margin remained much the same as it was in August. And the update is in range of where FHQ has California in the averages (Biden 61-31, rounded). Biden is a bit behind his average share of support and Trump a tad above his, but it is negligible.


Kansas
(Trump 53, Biden 41)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +8.32]
Despite a seemingly tight Senate race in the Sunflower state, there has been a general lack of polling of both that race and the presidential race there. But what little survey work has been done in Kansas has shown a presidential contest where the president has been ahead by either mid-single digits or in the low double digits. The internal poll from the Keep Kansas Great PAC by co/efficient has Republican Senate nominee, Roger Marshall, narrowly in the lead, but Trump more comfortably so. Still, the 53 percent share is Trump's peak in Kansas polling calendar 2020 and all while Biden is near his nadir there (but still about five points north of where Hillary Clinton ended up in 2016).


Michigan
(Biden 49, Trump 47)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +7.01]
Trafalgar Group has now conducted four polls in the Great Lakes state and this is Biden's first lead there since the first in the series in June. All four polls have been much closer that most of the other public opinion gathered on the presidential race in Michigan this year. Yes, the change is pretty small since the firm's survey a week ago -- Biden gained a couple of points while Trump remained stable at a higher than average 47 percent -- but the movement in the vice president's direction is likely not the best of signs in a state that the president does not necessarily need but cannot exactly afford to lose. For what it is worth, this poll is not off the mark on the Biden share by much, but it has Trump at a level that is approaching five points above his FHQ average share.


New Hampshire
(Biden 53, Trump 44 via University of New Hampshire | Biden 56, Trump 42 via Pulse Opinion Research)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +7.83]
Along with the UMass-Lowell survey of the Granite state yesterday, the two New Hampshire polls out today have bolstered the former vice president's advantage there. For UMass-Lowell and Pulse Opinion Research, it was their first forays into the state in calendar 2020. Both found Biden ahead by above average margins . And so, too, did the latest update in the UNH series. But at least there are other UNH surveys for comparison. The race in the Granite state shifted in the UNH series in June when Biden topped out. Since that time, however, the former vice president has remained pretty stable above 50 percent, but his margins have decreased in each successive poll in the series. Trump hit bottom in June at 39 percent and has climbed back to 44 percent over the last three months. The problem for the president is that his share can continue to grow, but as long as Biden is static above the majority mark, it does not really matter.


South Carolina
(Trump 48, Biden 47)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +5.86]
It is one thing when the South Carolina Senate race is close. There have been a number of those types of surveys of late. But the presidential race typically has not followed suit. Well, it has not until now. The latest Quinnipiac update in the Palmetto state has Trump up by just one point with the president's support tumbling below 50 percent in the Q-poll series and Biden reaching his high water mark in South Carolina polling this year. That context is important because this poll has Biden improving on Clinton's 2016 pace almost as much as Trump has lost off of his. This one looks like an outlier in the series, but time (and additional polling) will tell that tale. In the meantime, South Carolina remains a Lean toward Trump, but is back on the Watch List after this poll was added.



NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2020 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.


The Electoral College Spectrum1
DC-3
MA-11
(14)2
CT-7
(162)
WI-10
(253)
AK-3
(125)
AL-9
(60)
HI-4
(18)
NJ-14
(176)
PA-203
(273 | 285)
SC-9
(122)
IN-11
(51)
CA-55
(73)
OR-7
(183)
NV-6
(279 | 265)
MO-10
(113)
UT-6
(40)
VT-3
(76)
NM-5
(188)
AZ-11
(290 | 259)
MT-3
(103)
KY-8
(34)
MD-10
(86)
ME-2
(190)
FL-29
ME CD2-1
(320 | 248)
KS-6
NE CD1-1
(100)
SD-3
(26)
NY-29
(115)
CO-9
(199)
NC-15
(335 | 218)
LA-8
(93)
ID-4
(23)
WA-12
ME CD1-1
(128)
VA-13
(212)
GA-16
(203)
MS-6
(85)
ND-3
(19)
RI-4
(132)
MN-10
(222)
OH-18
(187)
AR-6
(79)
OK-7
(16)
DE-3
(135)
NH-4
(226)
IA-6
(169)
NE-2
(73)
WV-5
(9)
IL-20
(155)
MI-16
NE CD2-1
(243)
TX-38
(163)
TN-11
(71)
WY-3
NE CD3-1
(4)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states plus the Pennsylvania), he would have 285 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trump's is on the right in bold italics.

3 Pennsylvania
 is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state. The tipping point cell is shaded in yellow to denote that and the font color is adjusted to attempt to reflect the category in which the state is.

Again, today's group of states are ones that are outside of the toss up range and are not exactly the highest priorities for either candidate to flip over the next 34 days. However, that does not mean that the new polls did not drive some changes at FHQ. The map stayed the same as it was a day ago when Ohio jumped back over the partisan line into Trump territory, but both the Electoral College Spectrum and Watch List saw some changes since debate day (although not because of said debate).

The wider margin in the Kansas poll pushed it past Montana deeper into the Lean Trump group of states. That marks the second time in a little more than a week that a Kansas survey forced a change with Montana. Over in the Lean Biden category, New Hampshire, on the weight of three above average margins over the last to days has moved further away from the partisan line, leaving Michigan at the bottom of the middle blue column.

Finally, South Carolina and Missouri swapped spots again on the lower end of the Lean Trump category. That shift was enough to push the Palmetto state back onto the Watch List after recently leaving it. But like the states above, the change was built on a poll (or polls) well above or below average in the respective states.

But as debate season has now started, the race remains much as it has: with Biden comfortably ahead in the electoral vote tally and Pennsylvania occupying the tipping point spot in the order (and four states between it and the partisan line).



Where things stood at FHQ on September 30 (or close to it) in...
2016
2012
2008



--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State
Potential Switch
Arkansas
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Georgia
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Biden
Iowa
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Biden
Louisiana
from Lean Trump
to Strong Trump
Mississippi
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Nevada
from Toss Up Biden
to Lean Biden
Ohio
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Biden
Pennsylvania
from Lean Biden
to Toss Up Biden
South Carolina
from Lean Trump
to Toss Up Trump
Virginia
from Strong Biden
to Lean Biden
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was  too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.


--
Related posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/29/20)

The Electoral College Map (9/28/20)

The Electoral College Map (9/27/20)


Follow FHQ on TwitterInstagram and Facebook or subscribe by Email.

Tuesday, September 29, 2020

The Electoral College Map (9/29/20)

Update for September 29.


Changes (September 29)
StateBeforeAfter
Ohio
Toss Up Biden
Toss Up Trump
Debate day has arrived and with it a slew of new state-level surveys. Many of those were the first time some of these pollsters have conducted surveys in the 12 states polled on the day. Notably, Ohio has jumped back over the partisan line into Toss Up Trump territory after a brief stint shaded in a light blue. Now, those who were happy to see the Buckeye state move into the Toss Up Biden category a few days ago may grumble that it was the June-September waves from Survey Monkey that pushed Ohio back into the president's column. But as FHQ has said, it is not so much that Ohio is a toss up in Biden's or Trump's direction, so much as it is that the Buckeye state is close to tied. It may end up with Biden or Trump on (or after) election day, but if it continues to stay in this area in the order, then it suggests something about the extent to which things have shifted toward the Democrats since 2016. And if Ohio is among the most competitive states on election day, then it suggests that Biden is in good shape to get to and beyond 270.


Polling Quick Hits:
Alaska
(Trump 47, Biden 46)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +2.69]
There has not been a whole lot of polling of Alaska but what little has been done has pointed toward it being a bit more competitive than is typically the case in the Last Frontier. The Harstad Strategic Research survey has Trump up only one point. But the story is less about how much Trump is lagging behind his 2016 pace (nearly three points) there than it is about how much Biden has improved over Clinton's (almost nine points). That is a shift toward the Democrats that is above average compared to the rest of the country. Regardless, more polling of Alaska would seem warranted at this point.


Arizona
(Biden 47, Trump 47)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +3.457]
The Grand Canyon state, meanwhile, has been consistently tipped in Biden's direction by something north of three points in the FHQ averages. And that is still the case. However, the new Susquehanna survey of Arizona is the third over the last week or so to show the state either marginally favoring the president or tied. And that comes after a stretch 12 polls dating back to mid-August since the last Trump lead in an Arizona poll. That could be noise or it could be the start of a new trend in a state that has been a Biden toss up, but a reliable one thus far with some space (and states) between it and the partisan line.


Florida
(Biden 46, Trump 43)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +3.456]
Like Arizona, Florida, too, has been a reliable albeit close state for Biden, but one that has seen some narrowing in recent days. But as FHQ noted last week, things have tightened but only to a point and that is buttressed by a series of polls that have had Biden up three. The new Susquehanna survey of the Sunshine state falls into that category and adds at least some credence to the idea that things have now plateaued there. And the margin has stabilized in the mid-threes for Biden.


Georgia
(Biden 50, Trump 47 via Civiqs | Biden 50, Trump 47 via Quinnipiac)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +0.18]
Speaking of three point leads for the former vice president, he got a pair of them from a couple of new polls out of the Peach state. That was enough to push Georgia back up against the Trump side of the partisan line and back to being the most competitive of the states the president claims at this point. Civiqs was last in the field in Georgia in May and found Biden up a point in a registered voter sample. The switch to likely voters in the time since has only bolstered that advantage. Biden gained a couple of points and Trump remained stationary at 47 percent.


Illinois
(Biden 53, Trump 40)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +20.56]
The first poll of calendar 2020 in Illinois from Victory Research is perhaps a bit closer than one would expect given the nature of the swing from 2016 to now elsewhere across the country. Yes, Biden's lead is comfortable and unlikely to collapse in the next five weeks there, but this survey represents a slight decrease in support for Biden (relative to election day 2016) and marginal increase for the president. Still, as this is the lone survey in the Land of Lincoln, it remains tethered to the swings from other states that finished around it four years ago. That keeps the margin a bit above where this poll pegs it.


New Hampshire
(Biden 52, Trump 44)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +6.69]
The polls have been sporadic enough in New Hampshire that FHQ was surprised to find that there had been a survey other than the new UMass-Lowell poll this month. And it is more in line with the pre-September polling than was the earlier Siena poll of the Granite state. This UMass poll has both candidates running a bit ahead of their established levels of support here at FHQ. But Biden does marginally better to push the poll margin just beyond the FHQ average margin. But like Minnesota, New Hampshire does not exactly look like the flip opportunity the Trump campaign may have envisioned.


North Carolina
(Biden 47, Trump 47)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +1.43]
UMass-Lowell was also in the field in North Carolina and found a race knotted at 47. That is not too far off from the former vice president's 47-46 (rounded) lead in the weighted averages of both candidates' shares of support. North Carolina continues to be close, but like Arizona and Florida, also is still tilted consistently toward Biden.



North Dakota
(Trump 56, Biden 37)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +19.17]
That same consistency was also seen in the latest update from DFM Research in North Dakota. DFM has been the only pollster to test the presidential trial heat in the Peace Garden state all year, and the firm has shown a similar picture each time: Trump in the mid- to upper 50s and Biden in the mid- to upper 30s. Like Illinois, North Dakota is a safe state, but a safe state for the president. But unlike the sole survey in Illinois thus far, the DFM update in North Dakota continues to show Trump running well behind the 62 percent he received there in 2016 and Biden nearly ten points ahead of Clinton's pace. North Dakota will end up a red state in November, but its swing toward the Democrats is notable.


Ohio
(Trump 50, Biden 48)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +0.24]
The four waves of Survey Monkey polls of the Buckeye state may be new to the FHQ dataset, but the 50-48 advantage for the president there is not. Trump held the same lead a month ago in the August survey. And while that represents no change in Ohio in this series, the addition of those four monthly surveys nudges the Buckeye state back over the partisan line onto Trump's side of the ledger. Yet, as this poll is fairly close to Biden's rounded average share of support (47 percent), it has Trump running a few points ahead of his (also 47 percent, rounded). Again, however, the Buckeye state remains within a quarter of a point of the partisan line.


Pennsylvania
(Biden 49, Trump 40 via Siena/NYT Upshot | Biden 54, Trump 45 via ABC/WaPo)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +5.33]
For the first time in a while a pair of polls came along and inched Pennsylvania deeper into the Lean Biden category and outside of a tenth of a point of the Lean/Toss Up line. But it took a couple of nine point leads in those two polls to do it. The ABC/WaPo survey was its first there of calendar 2020, but Siena has conducted a survey in the commonwealth before. And the picture back in mid-June looked awfully similar. Biden's 50-40 edge in June has shrunk to 49-40 in September. No, that is not much shrinking. In fact, that that lead has held up -- from a time when Biden was surging in the polls across the nation -- says something about the overall steadiness of this race in the Keystone state and elsewhere. The case for narrowing in Pennsylvania is less solid than, say, Florida, and it is mainly due to polls like these.


Texas
(Trump 49, Biden 46)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +1.20]
September polls in Texas have been dominated by a host of small leads for the president, a group that now includes this UMass-Lowell. It was the first survey of the Lone Star state from the university pollster and is consistent with the average share of support Biden enjoys in the state, but has Trump a bit out in front of his. Still, that 49 precent share of support is not foreign to the president. It just happens to be toward the upper end of his range in recent polling in Texas. Like North Carolina, Texas remains close. Unlike the Tar Heel state, however, it is tipped in Trump's direction.


Wisconsin
(Biden 48, Trump 46 via Susquehanna | Biden 48, Trump 45 via Trafalgar)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +6.21]
Some of the above is good for the president, but the pair of polls out of Wisconsin today represented the brightest ray of hope for Trump. The Badger state had not seen a poll with a Biden lead less than four points all month until these two polls. However, both have Biden slightly under his FHQ average share of support in the state and Trump right at the upper end of his range in group of September polls that have all too often found him in the lower 40s.


Also added:

  • June, July, August and September waves of Rust Belt polling in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin form Survey Monkey. [Be aware that the September wave is still being updated until the end of the month. Those numbers can shift and have shifted and will be updated at FHQ as they do.]
  • Battleground polling from Hart Research Associates out of Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.




NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2020 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.


The Electoral College Spectrum1
DC-3
MA-11
(14)2
CT-7
(162)
WI-10
(253)
AK-3
(125)
AL-9
(60)
HI-4
(18)
NJ-14
(176)
PA-203
(273 | 285)
MO-10
(122)
IN-11
(51)
CA-55
(73)
OR-7
(183)
NV-6
(279 | 265)
SC-9
(112)
UT-6
(40)
VT-3
(76)
NM-5
(188)
AZ-11
(290 | 259)
KS-6
(103)
KY-8
(34)
MD-10
(86)
ME-2
(190)
FL-29
ME CD2-1
(320 | 248)
MT-3
NE CD1-1
(97)
SD-3
(26)
NY-29
(115)
CO-9
(199)
NC-15
(335 | 218)
LA-8
(93)
ID-4
(23)
WA-12
ME CD1-1
(128)
VA-13
(212)
GA-16
(203)
MS-6
(85)
ND-3
(19)
RI-4
(132)
MN-10
(222)
OH-18
(187)
AR-6
(79)
OK-7
(16)
DE-3
(135)
MI-16
(238)
IA-6
(169)
NE-2
(73)
WV-5
(9)
IL-20
(155)
NE CD2-1
NH-4
(243)
TX-38
(163)
TN-11
(71)
WY-3
NE CD3-1
(4)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states plus the Pennsylvania), he would have 285 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trump's is on the right in bold italics.

3 Pennsylvania
 is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state. The tipping point cell is shaded in yellow to denote that and the font color is adjusted to attempt to reflect the category in which the state is.

Not only did Ohio change shades on the map and push over the partisan line into Trump territory, but it was jumped on the other side by Georgia. The Peach state settled in next to the partisan line on the Electoral College Spectrum above as the most competitive of the Trump states. But the difference between the two is negligible. But not as negligible as the one one-thousandth of a point difference in the average margins in Arizona and Florida. The two Sun Belt state remained next to each other in the order on the Spectrum but swapped spots with Florida now the closer of the two.

Further out on the blue side of the Spectrum. New Hampshire and Wisconsin once again switched places with Wisconsin rejoining the states in the competitive, middle column. And the first poll in Illinois pushed it down the bottom cell in the far left column. The same could be said for North Dakota all the way on the right end of the Spectrum. The Peace Garden state moved one cell closer to the far end of Trump's coalition of states.

All that shuffling on the Spectrum was offset by a day of little change on the Watch List. The same nine states that were there a day ago are still there with only Ohio's potential shift being different after its change to Toss Up Trump.

But for all those polls, the story remains much the same around FHQ, give or take those 18 electoral votes that keep shifting as Ohio does.



Where things stood at FHQ on September 29 (or close to it) in...
2016
2012
2008



--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State
Potential Switch
Arkansas
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Georgia
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Biden
Iowa
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Biden
Louisiana
from Lean Trump
to Strong Trump
Mississippi
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Nevada
from Toss Up Biden
to Lean Biden
Ohio
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Biden
Pennsylvania
from Lean Biden
to Toss Up Biden
Virginia
from Strong Biden
to Lean Biden
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was  too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.


--
Related posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/28/20)

The Electoral College Map (9/27/20)

The Electoral College Map (9/26/20)


Follow FHQ on TwitterInstagram and Facebook or subscribe by Email.

Monday, September 28, 2020

The Electoral College Map (9/28/20)

Update for September 28.


As strange as it may be to say, the new work week began with a handful of new surveys from exclusively targeted states (and districts), and the least competitive of the bunch was the latest from Nebraska's second congressional district. Normally, one would see Nebraska and the immediate reaction may be comfortably red. And while the statewide margin may in fact place the Cornhusker state well into President Trump's coalition of states, the competitive, Omaha-area district is not. Moreover, the more polls that come in from the second continue to confirm that NE CD2 is a lot like Michigan in terms of its swing since 2016. Yes, the second has swung a bit more, but the two jurisdictions are within range of each other in the order on the Electoral College Spectrum below. And both are tucked into the heart of the Lean Biden category as of now.


Polling Quick Hits:
Nebraska CD2
(Biden 48, Trump 41)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +6.72]
Like much of the polling in Nebraska's second, the Siena/NYT Upshot has the former vice president up seven points. No, there has not been a ton of polling there, but it has consistently pointed to a very tight range with Biden basically up seven. And what may have been greeted as something of an outlier when the first public poll was released in early July does not look as much so in the face of subsequent (and similar) surveys. Like a number of the Siena polls, this one has a higher than some (most?) state-level surveys level of undecideds and others support. So while the candidates' shares in the poll may come in behind where the average margin currently sits, the margin is right on target.


Nevada
(Biden 46, Trump 41)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +4.86]
Once upon a time FHQ pined for new polling out of the Silver state and even tracked how many days it had been since the then last poll in April. The streak came to an end last month and things have picked up some in the time since. In the last week alone there have been four new polls including the latest update from UNLV Business School. It was the August survey from UNLV that ended the dry spell, and although both candidates gained over the intervening period, Biden maintained a five point edge, one consistent with the current average margin here at FHQ. Some volatility may have been introduced into the Nevada dataset in some recent polls, but this UNLV survey represents a return to the tight Biden +3-5 point range that has existed in most Silver state surveys.


North Carolina
(Biden 46, Trump 45)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +1.46]
Speaking of consistency, North Carolina, too, has settled into a seemingly predictable range in its recent polls as well and that is reflected in the new Meredith College poll of the Tar Heel state. As FHQ has noted what seems like a countless number of times, North Carolina is close. Of the polls conducted completely in the month of September, no candidate has led by any more than three points and Biden +1-2 has become a common result. But that has not always been the case. The last Meredith poll in April, for example, had the former vice president up seven points. And that was a time that preceded Biden's surge in the polls. In the move from a registered to likely voter sample, Trump gained pushing into the mid-40s while Biden remained consistently in the mid- to upper 40s. North Carolina, then, may be a toss up, but it has consistently been tipped in the former vice president's direction.


Pennsylvania
(Biden 50, Trump 45)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +5.06]
Not to be left out of the discussion, Pennsylvania has also witnessed a consistency in its recent polling. The margin is a bit bigger than in North Carolina, but more often than not, Biden ends up with an advantage in the mid-single digits. There are some exceptions to that, but the TIPP survey conducted in conjunction with The Federalist is not one of them. It has both candidates running slightly ahead of their average shares, but that five point margin is right where the race has been for a while now. Things have gotten closer in the Keystone state, but the extent of that change has been to reduced the former vice president's lead from five and a quarter points to near five. It has been more of a plateauing than a free fall to a dead heat for the commonwealth's 20 electoral votes.


Texas
(Trump 48, Biden 48)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +1.14]
Texas polling may have been a bit more variable and consistently had the president ahead, but Public Policy Polling_ surveys in the Lone Star state have regularly been in the one to two point range. That now extends through seven surveys in calendar 2020. Trump definitely leads for the 38 electoral votes Texas will offer in November. However, Texas is to Trump what North Carolina is to Biden: a state that is a top up and where both candidates have either had leads or have consistently run close to one another.



NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2020 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.


The Electoral College Spectrum1
DC-3
MA-11
(14)2
CT-7
(162)
NH-4
(253)
AK-3
(125)
AL-9
(60)
HI-4
(18)
NJ-14
(176)
PA-203
(273 | 285)
MO-10
(122)
IN-11
(51)
CA-55
(73)
OR-7
(183)
NV-6
(279 | 265)
SC-9
(112)
UT-6
(40)
VT-3
(76)
NM-5
(188)
FL-29
(308 | 259)
KS-6
(103)
KY-8
(34)
MD-10
(86)
ME-2
(190)
AZ-11
ME CD2-1
(320 | 230)
MT-3
NE CD1-1
(97)
ID-4
(26)
NY-29
(115)
CO-9
(199)
NC-15
(335 | 218)
LA-8
(93)
ND-3
(22)
WA-12
(127)
VA-13
(212)
OH-18
(353 | 203)
MS-6
(85)
SD-3
(19)
IL-20
ME CD1-1
(148)
MN-10
(222)
IA-6
(185)
AR-6
(79)
OK-7
(16)
RI-4
(152)
MI-16
(238)
GA-16
(179)
NE-2
(73)
WV-5
(9)
DE-3
(155)
NE CD2-1
WI-10
(249)
TX-38
(163)
TN-11
(71)
WY-3
NE CD3-1
(4)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states plus the Pennsylvania), he would have 285 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trump's is on the right in bold italics.

3 Pennsylvania
 is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state. The tipping point cell is shaded in yellow to denote that and the font color is adjusted to attempt to reflect the category in which the state is.

Despite five new polls from some of the most targeted if not competitive states on the board in 2020, nothing changed at FHQ to open the week just five weeks out from election day. Nevada slipped under the Lean/Toss Up line on the Biden side of the ledger yesterday and held steady today with the introduction of new data. But again, take note of how close it remains to the that line. The Silver state continues to hold a spot on the Watch List.

But the bottom line today with just 36 days left until voting concludes in this presidential race is how steady things have been. There are some subtle changes from time to time, but the map, Spectrum and Watch List have had consistency of their own over time. To this point, other than the Biden surge in June and July, this race has resembled to some extent the steadiness of the 2012 race. Like then, most people have made up their mind about the incumbent. The question that remains is what turnout will look like.



Where things stood at FHQ on September 28 (or close to it) in...
2016
2012
2008



--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State
Potential Switch
Arkansas
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Georgia
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Biden
Iowa
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Biden
Louisiana
from Lean Trump
to Strong Trump
Mississippi
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Nevada
from Toss Up Biden
to Lean Biden
Ohio
from Toss Up Biden
to Toss Up Trump
Pennsylvania
from Lean Biden
to Toss Up Biden
Virginia
from Strong Biden
to Lean Biden
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was  too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.


--
Related posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/27/20)

The Electoral College Map (9/26/20)

The Electoral College Map (9/25/20)


Follow FHQ on TwitterInstagram and Facebook or subscribe by Email.

Sunday, September 27, 2020

The Electoral College Map (9/27/20)

Update for September 27.


Changes (September 27)
StateBeforeAfter
Nevada
Lean Biden
Toss Up Biden
Saturday transitioned to Sunday and that change brought six new polls from six mainly battleground states. Most consequential among them was the latest update in underpolled Nevada. An outlier with an unusually large lead for Biden from a couple of days ago pushed the average margin in the Silver state up above five points and into the Lean Biden category. However, that change was reversed today with the addition of another Nevada survey with Biden only up a point. And as has been the case elsewhere, the change is one thing, but the fact that the margin in the Silver state is around five points is the key. Any new polling may shift Nevada back over the Lean/Toss Up line. But for now, Nevada has slipped back under that barrier, placing it just inside the upper end of the Toss Up Biden category.


Polling Quick Hits:
Georgia
(Trump 47, Biden 46)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +0.42]
Two things have become clearer over time in Georgia. First, the Peach state is close and second, Trump continues to hold a narrow but consistent lead there. The latest YouGov survey is consistent with both. And back in July when the firm was last in the field in Georgia, the race was equally as close, but that survey fell in the window of time in which Biden was surging across the country. But the surge was more muted in the YouGov series. The former vice president's one point advantage may have disappeared, but Georgia remains tight.


Michigan
(Biden 52, Trump 44)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +7.24]
Marist in its first poll of 2020 in Michigan found the race for the state's 16 electoral votes to be less close than things were four years ago on election day. But, for the most part, that is par for the course in the Great Lakes state this cycle. The thing with this survey, however, is that it has both candidates running ahead of their FHQ average shares of support, but Biden marginally more so than Trump. Still, the margin in this one is in line with the average margin here at FHQ, keeping Michigan basically where it has been all summer and now into fall.


Nevada
(Biden 49, Trump 48)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +4.93]
The change on the day came in Nevada where, again, the Pulse Opinion Research poll was much closer than the recent Fox News survey. Both were outside of where the admittedly small pool of polls of the Silver state have tended to find the race. Most have found a race in the three to five point range, but Trump's share of support in this survey is higher than in any poll this year. And it is that data point that makes this one closer than has typically been the case in Nevada. The president has overachieved in Nevada polling when he he has topped out in the mid-40s (much less approaching 50 percent).


North Carolina
(Biden 48, Trump 46)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +1.48]
Biden +2 polls in North Carolina have not exactly been uncommon as September draws to a close, and YouGov finds the race just there in the pollster's latest update in the Tar Heel state. The last late July survey had the former vice president up four and also at 48 percent. Trump has cut that lead in half over those two months and climbed to a point that is in line with where FHQ has his average level of support in the state.


South Carolina
(Trump 52, Biden 42)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +6.50]
YouGov also conducted a poll in the other Carolina, showing a wider advantage for Trump than has been common in the Palmetto state over the summer. In fact, although the president has frequently hit 50 percent in South Carolina, he has not crested to this level since a May Civiqs survey not only also had Trump at 52 percent, but up by an equivalent ten points. That just happens to be on the high side of Trump's range and the low side of Biden's.


Wisconsin
(Biden 54, Trump 44)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +6.48]
Finally, in Wisconsin, Marist shows Biden ahead by double digits and out in front of his average share by nearly five points. No, that is not the former vice president's high water mark in the Badger state but it is not far off it either. Trump's share, meanwhile, is more consistent with his average share in Wisconsin. And that consistency is a major warning sign for the president in a state he narrowly carried in 2016. There are other states that Trump likely needs more than Wisconsin, but if it comes off the board, then it suggests something about the extent to which things have shifted in the last four years, not just in Wisconsin but across the country.



NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2020 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.


The Electoral College Spectrum1
DC-3
MA-11
(14)2
CT-7
(162)
NH-4
(253)
AK-3
(125)
AL-9
(60)
HI-4
(18)
NJ-14
(176)
PA-203
(273 | 285)
MO-10
(122)
IN-11
(51)
CA-55
(73)
OR-7
(183)
NV-6
(279 | 265)
SC-9
(112)
UT-6
(40)
VT-3
(76)
NM-5
(188)
FL-29
(308 | 259)
KS-6
(103)
KY-8
(34)
MD-10
(86)
ME-2
(190)
AZ-11
ME CD2-1
(320 | 230)
MT-3
NE CD1-1
(97)
ID-4
(26)
NY-29
(115)
CO-9
(199)
NC-15
(335 | 218)
LA-8
(93)
ND-3
(22)
WA-12
(127)
VA-13
(212)
OH-18
(353 | 203)
MS-6
(85)
SD-3
(19)
IL-20
ME CD1-1
(148)
MN-10
(222)
IA-6
(185)
AR-6
(79)
OK-7
(16)
RI-4
(152)
MI-16
(238)
GA-16
(179)
NE-2
(73)
WV-5
(9)
DE-3
(155)
NE CD2-1
WI-10
(249)
TX-38
(163)
TN-11
(71)
WY-3
NE CD3-1
(4)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states plus the Pennsylvania), he would have 285 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trump's is on the right in bold italics.

3 Pennsylvania
 is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state. The tipping point cell is shaded in yellow to denote that and the font color is adjusted to attempt to reflect the category in which the state is.

Nevada may have shifted back to toss up status and once again flipped spots with tipping point Pennsylvania, but ate was not the lone change on the day. But there were not that many as the presidential race approaches five weeks until election day. Wisconsin and New Hampshire again traded spots on the Spectrum with the Badger state moving out of the middle/competitive column. The only other changes come from the least targeted state represented in today's polls, South Carolina. The YouGov survey in the Palmetto state nudged the average margin there up enough to push it past Missouri in the order of state depicted on the Electoral College Spectrum, but also enough to ease South Carolina off the Watch List below. It is now no longer within range of shifting into the Toss Up Trump category. That List of states that are within a fraction of a point of changing categories is now down to nine states with only three in range of a change that would alter the electoral vote tally.



Where things stood at FHQ on September 27 (or close to it) in...
2016
2012
2008



--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State
Potential Switch
Arkansas
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Georgia
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Biden
Iowa
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Biden
Louisiana
from Lean Trump
to Strong Trump
Mississippi
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Nevada
from Toss Up Biden
to Lean Biden
Ohio
from Toss Up Biden
to Toss Up Trump
Pennsylvania
from Lean Biden
to Toss Up Biden
Virginia
from Strong Biden
to Lean Biden
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was  too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.


--
Related posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/26/20)

The Electoral College Map (9/25/20)

The Electoral College Map (9/24/20)


Follow FHQ on TwitterInstagram and Facebook or subscribe by Email.