"These Are the 12 States Vying to Kick Off Democrats’ 2028 Contest"

Reid Epstein, Lisa Lerer and Shane Goldmacher at The New York Times shed light on the 12 states that are vying for four or five early slots on the 2028 Democratic presidential primary calendar:

"Democrats in 12 states have applied to kick off the party’s 2028 presidential primary contest, pushing arguments about race, geography, size, diversity, the rural-urban divide and their relative status as battlegrounds, according to copies of hundreds of pages of application materials reviewed by The New York Times.

"The Democratic National Committee, which will decide the order, has said that one state from each of four regions will hold nominating contests in the so-called early window, the month before Super Tuesday. A bonus fifth state could also be selected. State parties in these places applied:

"West: Nevada and New Mexico

"South: Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee and Virginia

"Midwest: Illinois, Iowa and Michigan

"East: New Hampshire and Delaware."

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Noteworthy: Fewer state parties submitted applications in 2026 as compared to 2022. Then, there were 20 state and territorial parties that threw their hats in the ring to be considered for early spots on the 2024 Democratic presidential primary calendar. Of those 20 from 2022, eight (8) state parties submitted applications again for the 2028 process (in alphabetical order): Delaware, Georgia, Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire and South Carolina.

Four states submitted applications for early window consideration for the first time this time around: New Mexico, North Carolina, Tennessee and Virginia. 

But why were there fewer applicants in 2026 relative to the process in 2022? 

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Now we know which states they are looking at 

Some thoughts on the 2028 Democratic primary calendar process now that the deadline for state parties to apply with the DNC has come and gone

"What's in Iowa Democrats' bid to regain first-in-the-nation status?"

Brianne Pfannenstiel at the Des Moines Register weighs in on Iowa Democrats push to return to the early window for 2028:

"In its bid to regain a toehold in early days of the presidential nominating calendar, Iowa Democrats are arguing that the national party cannot build sustainable national majorities without reconnecting to rural America.

"To help the party accomplish that, Iowa Democrats are touting the flexibility they can provide with their caucuses. Faced with several years of upheaval and experimentation, state Democratic Party leaders say they can create a system that is more inclusive and transparent and eliminates many of the pitfalls that bedeviled it in 2020.

“'No other state has the knowledge, infrastructure and history of giving long-shot presidential candidates a fair chance,' party leaders wrote in an application to a panel of the Democratic National Committee that sets the presidential nominating calendar. 'When Iowa is included among the early states, we complement and represent an intentionally well-designed balance of our party’s values and priorities.'"

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Noteworthy: Iowa Democrats are treading a very fine line. The party obviously wants the caucuses back in the early window (if not to be first again) and are clearly bending over backwards to appear flexible in their application to the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee (RBC). However, that flexibility in method -- in-person caucusing, voting electronically, voting via telephone, vote-by-mail, etc. -- runs the risk of coming across as less flexible than a muddled a la carte menu of options from which the state party cannot choose (or appears unable to choose).

Why does that distinction matter? It matters because the members of the RBC were adamant in their discussions of what they were after in these applications at their October 2025 meeting. They wanted not only clarity of method, but a demonstration of what worked in the past, what did not and how a state party would mitigate any lingering issues from the past implementation in 2028. 

All is not lost for Iowa Democrats. FHQ finds it hard to imagine the state party not being invited to make a presentation to the RBC for inclusion of its caucuses in the 2028 early window. [More on why soon at FHQ Plus.] So they will have a chance clean up any perception that this is a muddled mess by focusing on what the party could do to enhance what went right with the vote-by-mail party-run primary from 2024.

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Deadline day approaches for would-be early Democratic states for 2028 

Some thoughts from FHQ now that the deadline has drawn the attention of the media

"As the DNC chooses the 2028 primary order, NH makes its case for first"

Margie Cullen, New England political reporter for USA Today, has the story on New Hampshire Democrats' push to return to a sanctioned early position on the 2028 presidential primary calendar:

"New Hampshire is planning on holding the first-in-the-nation presidential primary once again in 2028 — whether the rest of the country likes it or not.

"The Democratic National Committee will likely decide the order of its 2028 presidential calendar by the end of the year, and states that wish to hold a presidential primary or caucus before Super Tuesday must submit their plans to the Rules and Bylaws Committee by Jan. 16, 2026.

"New Hampshire has held the first primary since 1920 — even in 2024, when the DNC wanted South Carolina to go first instead. The state is applying to go first again in 2028, but officials have said it doesn’t really matter what the DNC decides: New Hampshire will be going first no matter what, as mandated by a state law passed in 1975.

"'Whether or not it is sanctioned or not, is really the conversation,' New Hampshire Democratic Party Chairman Ray Buckley said."

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Noteworthy: Chair Buckley pretty much hits the nail on the head with his statement above. New Hampshire will have the first contest. The only catch is if the DNC sanctions that scheduling. 

The only caveat that FHQ would add is that that notion is true under current conditions, where New Hampshire is under unified Republican control (or even divided in some configuration of state government in 2027). But if Democrats sweep back control of state government in the 2026 midterms and install a Democratic secretary of state, then it is worth questioning just how much pressure the DNC might exert on Democrats in elected office in the Granite state to alter the oft-discussed presidential primary law. That is likely the only way in which the above scenario does not play out in some way, shape or form.

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Deadline day approaches for would-be early Democratic states for 2028 

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"[Illinois] State Democrats looking to push forward 2028 primary"

Benjamin Cox with WLDS in Jacksonville, IL discusses the Democratic Party of Illinois' efforts to win an early slot on the 2028 presidential primary calendar:

"The Democratic Party of Illinois has formally submitted a proposal to the Democratic National Committee’s Rules and Bylaws Committee seeking to move Illinois into the party’s early, or “pre-window,” presidential primary calendar.

"Democratic Party of Illinois Chair Lisa Hernandez said Illinois offers a uniquely representative testing ground for Democratic presidential candidates, citing its mix of urban, suburban, and rural communities, as well as its racial, economic, and geographic diversity.

"Hernandez also framed the proposal in national political terms, arguing that Illinois voters have been directly affected by policies of the Trump administration and would scrutinize candidates on issues including healthcare costs, reproductive rights, civil rights, and protections for marginalized communities."

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Noteworthy: The Illinois bid for an early calendar position in 2028 is not unlike the effort in Virginia. It is a blue state -- even bluer than the Old Dominion -- with unified Democratic control of state government. Thus, a calendar change can easily be facilitated. That is one big factor in the state party's favor. But the question is, does Illinois have the profile of a state that the DNC wants in the early window? 

Blue state applicants, like those state parties in Delaware, Illinois, New Mexico and Virginia, can be thought of as contrasting the virtues of their own attempts with their regional neighbors in the pool that have some history in the early window -- New Hampshire, Michigan, Nevada and South Carolina, respectively. And by extension, those efforts may best be viewed as moves for any fifth spot in the DNC's early window on the 2028 presidential primary calendar (should the party opt to squeeze in another early contest).

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Deadline day approaches for would-be early Democratic states for 2028 

Some thoughts from FHQ now that the deadline has drawn the attention of the media

"Virginia Democrats push for earlier spot on 2028 presidential primary calendar"

Brandon Jarvis at Virginia Scope has the story on Old Dominion Democrats' bid to become an early state on the DNC's 2028 presidential primary calendar:

"Most of Virginia’s Democratic congressional delegation is making the case for Virginia to be one of the early primary states in the 2028 presidential race.

...

"In making the case for an earlier primary, party leaders pointed to the state’s election infrastructure and track record.

"'Virginia seeks inclusion in the early nominating process based on its demonstrated capacity to administer a rigorous, fair, and transparent presidential nominating contest and its consistent record of national leadership within the Democratic Party,' the letter continues. 'The Commonwealth conducts elections through a professional, statewide system that is continuously active, uniform across jurisdictions, and capable of supporting a high-profile early contest in compliance with national party rules.'

"The letter also referenced the Virginia Democratic Party’s diversity and how it is more reflective of the national party than competitors like South Carolina, which typically holds an early primary but is a conservative state."

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Noteworthy: The bid by Virginia Democrats for an early slot on the 2028 presidential primary calendar has something that most of those other state parties vying for the honor from the South do not: newly-minted, unified Democratic control of state government. Democrats in the commonwealth, then, can facilitate a date change today that their counterparts in Georgia, North Carolina and Tennessee cannot (and may ultimately not be able to). 

Maybe that will change after the 2026 midterm elections. Perhaps Democrats in neighboring North Carolina and Tennessee will overcome significant (gerrymandered) barriers and win control of state legislatures in one or both states. It is possible, though not probable depending on the extent of any blue wave that could materialize. And Georgia could elect a Democratic secretary of state (the actor that sets the date of the presidential primary in the Peach state). Maybe. 

But Virginia Democrats can make that happen now and that is seemingly why party leaders turned their focus toward contrasting an early primary in the Old Dominion with one from early state stalwart, South Carolina:

"Virginia’s electorate reflects the breadth of the modern Democratic coalition and provides a meaningful test of presidential candidates’ ability to build durable support across diverse constituencies and regions,” the letter states. “Candidates competing in Virginia must demonstrate organizing capacity, coalition-building skill, and governing readiness across urban, suburban, and rural communities that closely resemble the national electorate Democrats must assemble to prevail in a general election." 

Of course, South Carolina Democrats might counter -- in fact, they already have -- that the Palmetto state is a smaller and less expensive state and is the better option in the early window. 

Regardless, it seems worth pointing out that the southern region by far had the most applicants (five [5]) for early slots on the calendar. That does not guarantee that any additional (fifth) slot would go to a state from the region, but it does not hurt. Virginia might -- might -- not be competing with South Carolina.

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Deadline day approaches for would-be early Democratic states for 2028 

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"South Carolina Democrats file formal bid to keep first-in-nation presidential primary spot in 2028"

The Post and Courier's Caitlin Byrd takes a look at South Carolina Democrats' application to retain an early window slot in 2028:

"The national Democratic Party’s deadline to submit proposals to be part of the so-called “early window” of states in the 2028 presidential primary field expired Friday with South Carolina Democrats filing a bid they hope keeps it first.

"The competition is expected to be fierce. Other states are submitting their own packages, among them battlegrounds like Michigan and Nevada, and historic leadoffs like Iowa and New Hampshire.

"State Democrats say the Palmetto State has a strong case to remain at the front of the nominating process: It’s a smaller state that makes campaigning here cheaper, meeting voters easier and reaching a turnout bloc long seen as crucial for the party’s future success."

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Noteworthy: It is interesting. All of the usual arguments are here for South Carolina being first. As state Democratic Party Chair Christale Spain told Byrd:

"We will again make the case that Black, rural, urban and Southern voters must lead the way in the First in the Nation primary."

It is a familiar diversity argument. But one other consistent theme in some of the arguments for a first-in-the-nation 2028 South Carolina primary from folks in and associated with the state party is that they do not see the 2024 primary in the Palmetto state as having been first. No, that is not a reflection of New Hampshire Democrats opting into the noncompliant state-run presidential primary and holding an unsanctioned primary before South Carolina's. Rather, it is a function of 2024 not being a competitive nomination race. 

This argument basically boils down to, "we have not really seen what the nomination system looks like with South Carolina as the lead." In other words, some in and around the state party see 2024 as something of a dry run, but a practice run and not a true test. 

South Carolina DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee member Carol Fowler made that argument:

"We haven't seen how it works with South Carolina first, because I truly did not count the last time,” Fowler said of the 2024 contest where Biden faced no serious primary challenger and months later suspended his bid. “We deserve a chance to see if Joe Biden was right."

And so did state party Executive Director Jay Parmley:

"We're making the case that the primary in 2024 was not an open primary,” said state Executive Director Jay Parmley. “There was an incumbent president on the ballot, and the current calendar has not been tested in a true competitive open primary system."

Neither is wrong. But it also is not clear how successful the party will be in advancing that particular part of the case to be first with the national party. 

What South Carolina Democrats continue to have on their side in all of this -- whether being first or merely among the early states -- is that it is among the easiest pieces to move around on the calendar. That may not pay dividends with respect to the competition for the first slot, but it is a feather in Palmetto state Democrats' caps that none of the other southern state party applicants can boast. 

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Deadline day approaches for would-be early Democratic states for 2028 

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"Nevada Democrats push to host first 2028 primary, highlighting battleground advantages"

Kenzie Margiott at KRNV News 4 (Reno) shares the news of Nevada Democrats officially applying for a spot among the early states on the 2028 Democratic presidential primary calendar:

"The Nevada State Democratic Party has submitted a proposal to the Democratic National Committee requesting to host the first presidential nominating contest in the 2028 election cycle."

...

"Nevada Democrats argue the state’s majority-minority population, large working-class electorate, and status as a competitive battleground make it a strong testing ground for Democratic presidential candidates. Party leaders also point to Nevada’s relatively small size, two major media markets, and expanded voting access as meeting the DNC’s criteria for rigor, fairness, and efficiency."

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Noteworthy: Similar to the situation in Michigan, Democrats in Nevada already have an early primary for 2028. In 2021, legislation established a presidential primary in the formerly caucus state and scheduled the election for the first Tuesday in February. That election will occur then unless there is a change triggered by the state legislature. Regardless, neither the state party nor the legislature may be inclined to make a change unless it is to move the primary even further up to secure the first position on the calendar. 

If Nevada does not make the DNC's cut at all, then there may be resistance to changing the current law regardless of what happens in the midterm elections with respect to control of state government. Unlike Michigan, the incumbent governor in the Silver state is a Republican who may balk at any changes to the status quo. [NOTE: Nevada Republicans opted out of the state-run presidential primary in 2024, choosing instead to conduct caucuses.]

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Nevada Democratic Party statement on the application:

NV DEMS SUBMITS PROPOSAL TO HOST FIRST IN THE NATION PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATING CONTEST

As a majority-minority, working-class, battleground state, Nevada is best poised to nominate a candidate who can win in November

Today, the Nevada State Democratic Party submitted a proposal to the DNC’s Rules and Bylaws Committee to be included in the early presidential primary nominating calendar and earn the first spot in 2028.

Nevada State Democratic Party Chair Daniele Monroe-Moreno released the following statement:

“There’s no better proving ground for any Democratic presidential contender than a union-strong, majority-minority, competitive battleground state. Putting a state that looks like America at the front of the calendar will put our party in the strongest position to win back the White House.”

In the proposal, we outline selecting Nevada as first is a strategic decision for the future of the party:

“The Democratic Party is facing a critical moment where we must be strategic in our efforts to earn back Latino support, craft an economic message that resonates across the country, begin the work to reach working-class voters, and turn out diverse communities … As a diverse, working-class, battleground state, Nevada is best poised to nominate a candidate who can win in November.”

Additionally, we underscore that Nevada is best positioned to be first in the nation because we fully meet all metrics outlined by the DNC’s Rules and Bylaws Committee:

Rigorousness: “Nevada is the most working-class and most diverse battleground state in the nation. We have a majority-minority population, and we have the highest concentration of non-college educated voters of all battlegrounds. We are also home to urban, suburban, and rural communities, making us geographically diverse. Nevada looks like America and best represents the coalition we need to win in 2028”

Fairness: “Nevada is a small and accessible state of just over three million people with two media markets where presidential contenders can still meet voters face to face, and retail politics with a strong grassroots organization can make a real difference.”

Efficiency: “Nevada has some of the most progressive voting laws in the country, making both registration and voting widely available.”

This proposal has garnered support from prominent leaders and organizations including Nevada’s federal delegation, Culinary Union 226, Nevada State AFL-CIO, and Somos Votantes.

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Deadline day approaches for would-be early Democratic states for 2028 

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"Michigan Democrats apply to vote early in 2028 presidential primary"

Craig Mauger and Melissa Nann Burke at The Detroit News have the latest on Michigan Democrats officially applying with the DNC to be among the early states in 2028:

"Michigan Democrats submitted an application Friday in hopes that the battleground state will be chosen to be among the first to vote in the 2028 presidential nominating contest.

"In 2024, the rulemaking arm of the Democratic National Committee picked Michigan to be the fifth state to hold its presidential primary. Michigan's primary took place on Feb. 27 in 2024. State law currently says Michigan's presidential primary will be on the fourth Tuesday in February going forward.

"In an interview Friday, Curtis Hertel, chairman of the Michigan Democratic Party, said the new application would allow Michigan to potentially keep its late February date, which would be Feb. 22 in 2028, and make Michigan a place for early investment in 2028. Hertel said he's not expecting Michigan to move to the front of the line, where South Carolina was in 2024.

"'I have said several times that we are not pushing for first,' Hertel said of the order."

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Noteworthy: It is worth noting that the Michigan presidential primary is already in the early window of the 2028 Democratic presidential primary calendar. Further action on the part of legislators in the Great Lakes state, then, would not be necessary so long as the state party secures a slot among the early states. Additional action would only be required if either 1) Michigan is granted the first (or an earlier) position or 2) the state is left out of the early state lineup. 

The DNC would, depending on control of Michigan state government following the 2026 midterms, likely encounter a far more motivated state party/state government in the event that Michigan is bumped up the order rather than left out of the early window entirely. Odds are not in favor of the latter happening at this point, but should Michigan be left off the list, then legislators may not find incentive to change the date to comply with the changes. That would raise the specter of a potential rogue primary and/or a battleground state party having to opt out of the state-run contest in favor of a compliant (later) state party-run contest (party-run primary or caucus).

I am not a betting man, but I would not bet on that scenario. It would not be in the interest of any of the parties concerned.

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Michigan Democratic Party statement on the application:

STATEMENT: MDP Submits Application for Michigan To Be in 2028 Early Primary Window

Today, the Michigan Democratic Party formally submitted its application to the Democratic National Committee’s Rules and Bylaws Committee (RBC) for Michigan to hold an “early window” primary for the 2028 Democratic presidential nominating convention. Applications to the DNC’s Rules and Bylaws Committee are due today.

Last year, the RBC established the process through which Democratic State Parties may apply to be in the early window for 2028. The resolution established that the RBC must select between four and five states for the early window and must include one state from each of the DNC’s four geographic regions (Midwest, East, South, and West). The RBC requires State Parties to hold their nominating contests after the first Tuesday in March unless specifically exempted. In 2023, Michigan passed legislation moving our presidential primary to the fourth Tuesday in February.

“For Democrats to have the strongest presidential candidate, the early nominating states should closely mirror Democratic voters nationwide and be representative of America. Michigan is the most diverse battleground state in the country and investments made on the ground early are beneficial to electing a Democratic president in the general election,” said Michigan Democratic Party Chair Curtis Hertel. “Michigan is a perfect candidate to be in the lineup of early nominating contests, and it’s crucial that our new national calendar for selecting the next president includes Michigan in an early position.”

“We like to say that ‘the road to the White House goes through Michigan.’ As the most diverse battleground state, Michigan embodies all the constituencies that will be key to winning the presidency. The middle class was built right here in Michigan, and our two biggest industries – manufacturing and agriculture — employ millions of hardworking people across our state,” said Governor Gretchen Whitmer. “Michigan is an ideal state to be included in the early window for the 2028 presidential primary process, and I wholly support the application submitted by the Michigan Democratic Party.”

“All roads to the White House go through Michigan. Key groups that Democrats need to persuade and turn out to win national elections are the backbone of our state. In addition to racial and cultural diversity, we have both industrial urban centers with manufacturing and more rural agricultural areas than many other states,” said Congresswoman Debbie Dingell. “A Michigan presidential primary is a down payment on the general election, giving us a head start on critical organizing efforts that pay huge dividends in November. I don’t think that any one state should have a lock on going first, but Michigan will always fight for a battleground state to be a part of the early primary process.”

“Teeing off our nation’s elections in Michigan will show the strength and relevance of the Democratic party and will remind people of every political persuasion across the country that, even in challenging times, progress is possible when we have the courage to show up and use our voice,” said Senate Majority Leader Winnie Brinks.

“Michigan is a decisive battleground state. In the last five presidential elections, Michigan voters have cast their ballots for the winning candidate-demonstrating that success here requires building the same coalition needed to win in November,” said House Democratic Leader Ranjeev Puri. “An early primary in Michigan ensures Democratic nominees are tested with the voters who will ultimately decide the presidential election.”

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Deadline day approaches for would-be early Democratic states for 2028 

Some thoughts from FHQ now that the deadline has drawn the attention of the media

And Michigan Democrats may not be pushing for the first-in-the-nation slot, but...

Are Democrats really considering putting Michigan's primary first for 2028? 

The early answer appears to be yes. But why when the Great Lakes state is not a perfect fit for the national party's selection criteria?

"Democrats battle over who votes first in 2028, a proxy for the party’s future"

Maeve Reston and Dylan Wells at The Washington Post provide the latest on deadline day as state parties scramble to apply to be among the early states on the 2028 calendar:

"The lobbying campaign is one of the most aggressive in a battle royal among states seeking to get early spots in the party’s 2028 nominating calendar. The fight over the order formally begins Friday when about a dozen states are expected to submit proposals to the Democratic National Committee to get early spots, a privilege that gives their voters and politicians added influence and attention.

"The contest is not only important to the party and individual states involved but also exemplifies the broader debate among Democrats over how — both in its policies and its process — to improve their positioning for presidential contests.

"Many Democratic insiders argue that their viability could hinge on designing an early state gauntlet that better pressure-tests their 2028 nominee and more accurately reflects the racial, socioeconomic and geographic makeup of the party. The decisions of where to campaign affect which voters get to shape the conversation and the set of issues that candidates prioritize. Iowa’s longtime hold on the nation’s first caucuses, for example, is credited with helping farmers preserve subsidy programs, while South Carolina’s large population of Black Democrats helped Joe Biden overcome earlier losses in Iowa and New Hampshire in 2020.

This year, Nevada, New Hampshire and South Carolina are among the states pushing hardest for the first spot, according to interviews with more than a dozen DNC members, party strategists and state chairs. Michigan, Georgia, North Carolina, Iowa and Virginia are also vying for either the first spot or at least a spot in the early window, before a busy day of state contests known as Super Tuesday. And the lobbying — which includes a fair amount of state-on-state jousting — has been going on behind-the-scenes for several months."

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Noteworthy: One thing that is consistent across this round of news dispatches ahead of the Democrats' early state application deadline is that the group of states listed as "fighting hardest for" and/or likely to end up first in the order of states on the 2028 presidential primary calendar has shifted. It is a slight shift, but it is a shift. 

Calendar news trickled out in 2025, but what little there was tended to be dominated by mentions of three states likeliest to be at the head of the queue for Democrats in 2028: Michigan, Nevada and New Hampshire. In addition, the reporting throughout 2025 also painted a bleak picture of the prospect of the first state on the 2024 calendar, South Carolina. 

It is different now on both fronts. 

Michigan and South Carolina have seemingly reversed roles. The former is now seemingly to repeating the "just happy to be in the early window" line that was earlier associated with South Carolina. Meanwhile, the latter in now more often mentioned as a distinct possibility for the first slot. 

Why? What changed? [There is a question for you, reporters.]

Some of the explanation, FHQ suspects, boils down to the combination of timing and sources. It was early enough in the process in the summer that the notion of which state would lead the calendar in 2028 was still theoretical and sources were willing to speculate. Now that state parties are starting to actually apply for the honor of being sanctioned the first contest, there are some actual states in the mix, no longer just theoretically so. 

Earlier sources tended to have been DNC members as well and they often discussed which states could go first. This go-round of reporting ahead of the deadline appears to have incorporated more state-level voices in the discussion, voices that are actively lobbying to go first. There is a difference there in what is being covered.

Anyway, it should not be lost on anyone that regardless of the above distinctions between Michigan and South Carolina, the two states that are in both sets of reporting -- summer 2025 and now -- are Nevada and New Hampshire. That is not by mistake. Read into it what one might, but there is a signal in there and folks following the 2028 calendar process should probably take heed. 

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Deadline day approaches for would-be early Democratic states for 2028 

Some thoughts from FHQ now that the deadline has drawn the attention of the media

"Inside Democrats’ Brewing Debate Over Which States Should Vote First in 2028"

Shane Goldmacher at The New York Times has an update on the Democrats' consideration of the 2028 primary calendar as the early state application deadline approaches:

"Democratic Party insiders are beginning to puzzle over one of the more consequential decisions for the party’s future: which states should vote first in the 2028 presidential primary elections.

...

"The Democratic National Committee has set a Friday deadline for states to apply to be placed in the so-called early window, the month leading up to Super Tuesday.

"The debate has only just begun. But early whisper campaigns about the weaknesses of the various options already offer a revealing window into some of the party’s racial, regional and rural-urban divides, according to interviews with more than a dozen state party chairs, D.N.C. members and others involved in the selection process."

...

Noteworthy: Honestly, there is not much news in this piece. Goldmacher is merely providing a refresher on where things stand early in the DNC's consideration of the 2028 pre-window states. And things stand about where they have for some time: still at or very near the starting gate. That said, a couple of things...

1) Goldmacher spoke with sources from the usual suspect states: Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina and Michigan. In addition there were the obligatory (for the 2028 cycle anyway) quotes from party officials in Georgia and North Carolina, two neighboring states vying to theoretically replace South Carolina in the early window. Thus, it is the same seven states that have been routinely mentioned in these conversations since the 2024 election. 

In Goldmacher's telling of where the process is to name the early states on the Democratic presidential primary calendar for 2028, it is a status quo story. In other words, there may be a shake up to the order of states in the early window relative to 2024, but it will not see much change in terms of the actual states in that window outside of a piece or two (which is not nothing!).

2) Minnesota, which was in the mix in 2022 for the slot that ultimately went to Michigan on the 2024 calendar is not applying for an early window position for the 2028 cycle. It was not raised in Goldmacher's piece, but one has to imagine that this has much to do with former Minnesota DFL Chair Ken Martin now being at the head of the Democratic National Committee and wanting to avoid any appearance of playing favorites in the process.  

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Deadline day approaches for would-be early Democratic states for 2028 

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"Scoop: S. Carolina Dems enlist influencers for primary fight"

Holly Otterbein at Axios has the latest on South Carolina Democrats ramping up their defense of an early calendar spot:

"South Carolina will host a "creator" briefing alongside the national party's meeting in Los Angeles this week — a reflection of the growing importance of Democrat-friendly influencers as the party seeks to recapture young voters from the GOP.

"It's part of an increasingly hot battle within the party over which states will get the earliest slots on the 2028 primary calendar — and likely have outsized sway in determining who wins the Democratic nomination."

...

Noteworthy: One's mileage may vary on just how significant it is that South Carolina Democrats are turning to influencers in the state party's effort to retain an earlier (or the first) spot on the 2028 presidential primary calendar. More notable I would argue is the fact that Palmetto state Democrats are taking this approach in a public way ahead of and concurrent with the upcoming DNC meeting. No decisions will be made on the calendar this week, but South Carolina Democrats are following in the footsteps of their counterparts from New Hampshire who lobbied the Rules and Bylaws Committee (RBC) during the panel's October meeting. 

This activity will likely only escalate between now and when waiver requests to the RBC are made by state parties in the lead up to (and very likely after) the January 16 deadline. 

--

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Are Democrats really considering putting Michigan's primary first for 2028? 

The early answer appears to be yes. But why when the Great Lakes state is not a perfect fit for the national party's selection criteria?

"Democrats set January deadline for states to apply for early 2028 primary contests"

Meg Kinnard at The AP with the details on the DNC Rules and Bylaws-passed resolution guiding the selection of early primary states for 2028:

"The Rules and Bylaws Committee of the Democratic National Committee on Monday approved a plan giving states until January 16 to submit applications to hold voting contests in the early window ahead of Super Tuesday, when a massive haul of delegates will be awarded.

"Four or five states will get an early slot, and all four regions — East, Midwest, South and West — must be represented, according to the framework."

And from Caroline Vakil at The Hill:

"States seeking to be one of the first stomping grounds to weigh in on the 2028 Democratic presidential primary will be evaluated on rigorousness, efficiency and fairness."

More from Elena Schneider at Politico:

"The DNC planned to reevaluate the order ahead of the 2028 primary, but the committee’s moves take on fresh significance for a wide-open presidential primary process, in which the voting order of states will likely impact candidates’ strategy. But unlike in 2022, when Biden set the calendar, the DNC now has control of the process.

"Jockeying for a calendar spot has already started, though several DNC members privately said they expect the composition of the early window to resemble previous years — which included South Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada and Michigan. The order of the states may prove trickier than which states are included."

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And there were reactions on the state level...

Iowa (via Brianne Pfannenstiel at the Des Moines Register):

"'I am disappointed the DNC is already backtracking on its promise for an open and democratic process by rushing through this proposal,' [Iowa Democratic Party Chair Rita] Hart said in a statement. 'Whatever fake timeline the DNC’s Rules and Bylaws Committee tries to put on this process, I remain committed to having continued family conversations regarding our Iowa Caucus process with members of our State Central Committee, our campaigns and Democrats across the state.'

"She said 'all options are on the table' as the party weighs where to go next."

Nevada (via Mini Racker at the Nevada Independent)¹: 

"'In Nevada, we’re very respectful of the process,' [Nevada DNC member Artie] Blanco said... 'We don’t cry about it; we don’t get angry. We just go back and we start the fight again.'"

New Hampshire (via Josh Rogers at New Hampshire Public Radio):

"New Hampshire Democratic Party Chairman Ray Buckley participated in Monday's meeting, but did not speak. Yet in a memo Buckley released last week, he argued that New Hampshire deserves to lead off Democrats’ 2028 nominating calendar because it is a state that fairly tests candidates by making them go face to face with voters.

"'We believe that we should go first because we are a small, purple state with unmatched civic participation. In other words, there is no other state that better meets the efficiency, rigorousness, and fairness criteria needed in our presidential nominating process,' Buckley said.

"'New Hampshire's racial diversity continues to increase, especially among our youngest Granite Staters,' Buckley wrote, adding that New Hampshire has a record of diversity that extends beyond race.

"'We are the only state in the country to elect a woman both governor and senator — which we’ve done multiple times,' Buckley said."

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¹ Racker's quotes from Virginia DNC member Elaine Kamark on the early state selection process for 2024 were particularly interesting as well. They shed some additional light on the hours before Biden released his letter on the 2024 calendar:

"'I think New Hampshire would have ended up first,' Elaine Kamarck, a Brookings senior fellow who authored Primary Politics and is a veteran member of the committee, told The Nevada Independent. 'Because of the history of New Hampshire and because it’s in the Eastern time zone.'"

 And...

"'We’d been asking for guidance for months, so there was kind of relief,' Kamarck said. 'We didn’t know if the president was going to weigh in or not. So it was kind of like, ‘OK, good. He’s finally made his wishes known.’ Some of us thought that, ‘Well, maybe he just won’t weigh in. You know, maybe it’s up to us.’ But he did.'"

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Now we know what they're looking for.

The DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee met earlier this week and passed a resolution laying out what the party wants in the 4 or 5 early states for 2028.

"DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee Votes to Establish Procedure for Presidential Nominating Calendar Early State Selection Process"

The following is a press release for the DNC on the October 27 Rules and Bylaws Committee that adopted a resolution laying out the guidelines for state parties to apply for early spots on the 2028 primary calendar:

Today, the DNC’s Rules and Bylaws Committee (RBC) voted to pass a resolution to establish the next steps in determining the early window of the 2028 presidential nominating calendar. The Resolution lays out criteria to ensure a rigorous, efficient, and fair process that will deliver the strongest possible Democratic nominee for president. Following the Resolution’s passage, Democratic State Parties will receive a formal Request for Proposal (RFP), which they can complete and submit to the RBC if they wish to apply for the early window.

Highlights from the Resolution and RFP include:

• The Resolution and RFP establish the fundamental goal for the calendar process of “produc[ing] the strongest possible Democratic nominee for president.”
• The Resolution instructs the committee to execute the calendar process “in the most transparent, open, and fair manner feasible,” requiring the RBC to provide “adequate, clear, and timely notice on major milestones and requirements.”
• The Resolution and RFP establish three pillars that will be used to evaluate early state applicants. Those pillars are:

• Rigorousness: the lineup of early states must be a comprehensive test of candidates with diverse groups of voters that are key to winning the general election;
• Fairness: the lineup of early states must be affordable, practical for candidates, and not exhaust their resources unreasonably, precluding them from effectively participating in future contests;
• Efficiency: the practical ability to run a fair, transparent, and inclusive primary or caucus.

• The Resolution further establishes that the RBC must select between four and five states for the early window and must include one state from each of the DNC’s four geographic regions (East, Midwest, South, and West).
• The Resolution establishes the deadline for state RFP submissions as January 16, 2026.

RBC Co-Chairs Minyon Moore and James Roosevelt, Jr. released the following statement:

“Establishing the nominating calendar is one of the most important responsibilities of the Rules and Bylaws Committee, and we are committed to executing a fair and transparent process that will deliver a battle-tested nominee who will win back the White House for Democrats. Today, the RBC took a crucial first step in charting our path for 2028.”

DNC Chair Ken Martin released the following statement:

“The Rules and Bylaws Committee is hard at work designing a nominating calendar that will result in the strongest possible Democratic nominee for president through a fair, rigorous, and efficient process.”

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More at FHQ Plus (subscription)...

Now we know what they're looking for.

The DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee met earlier this week and passed a resolution laying out what the party wants in the 4 or 5 early states for 2028.

New Hampshire Democrats make a pitch for first ahead of DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee meeting

Elena Schneider in Politico Playbook has the details on a memo making the rounds from New Hampshire Democrats arguing the case for why the Granite state should go first in 2028:

"Fight for first: New Hampshire Democrats are circulating a memo to DNC members, arguing their case to return to the first-in-the-nation primary slot, after being demoted ahead of the 2024 cycle. The memo, scooped by POLITICO’s Elena Schneider, argues that New Hampshire should retain its coveted first-place slot, not “based simply on tradition,” but because “we are a small, purple state with unmatched civic participation.” The memo takes a more conciliatory tone, in a shift for the state that held an unsanctioned primary in 2024 with in-state Democrats organizing a write-in campaign on behalf of then-President Joe Biden. It is timed ahead of Monday’s meeting of the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee , which is charged with setting the Democrats’ presidential primary calendar."

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Noteworthy: A case was always going to be made by New Hampshire Democrats to keep (or return, depending on one's perspective) the Granite state first in the order of primaries in the Democratic presidential nomination process for 2028. And given that similar memos were already circulated by Nevada Democrats around the August Rules and Bylaws Committee (RBC) meeting, one from the Silver state's Democratic counterparts back east is no surprise. This is an introductory maneuver, one made to fit the New Hampshire primary into the rubric voiced by DNC Chair Ken Martin and likely to be taken up in the form of a resolution during the October RBC meeting. That is why the state party is playing up the small and purple virtues of New Hampshire.

But FHQ does not read that as taking a more conciliatory tone. After all, the rubber has yet to meet the road in all of this. New Hampshire Democrats did not strike a defiant tone with the DNC until after the calendar rules for 2024 were initially passed by the RBC in late 2022. Any tone shift from New Hampshire Democrats this time around will not be truly felt until a similar juncture in the 2028 cycle (if at all). Of course they are playing "conciliatory" now. The calendar rules are still undecided. 

"DNC set to start process for deciding which states will vote earliest in 2028 presidential primaries"

Hunter Woodall at CBS News provides an update what the Democratic National Committee is likely to look for in states that will make up the early window on the 2028 presidential primary calendar:

"A source familiar with the calendar efforts detailed the materials written by the co-chairs of the party's rules and bylaws panel, including a draft resolution and request for proposal, were shared Friday with members. At the late October meeting, members will have a chance to revise and vote on the work.

"The resolution outlines standards, which according to the source, cover the following:

• "'Rigorousness: the lineup of early states must be a comprehensive test of candidates with diverse groups of voters that are key to winning the general election;
• Efficiency: the lineup of early states must be affordable and practical for candidates and not exhaust their resources, precluding them from effectively participating in future contests;
• Fairness: the practical ability to run a fair, transparent and inclusive primary or caucus.'

"The plans call for four or five states to be chosen by DNC members to hold a nominating contest in what's known as the "early window," which comes before states begin voting in large numbers on Super Tuesday and the weeks afterwards. Under the draft, each of the four regions being focused on by the DNC, the East, Midwest, South and West, would need to have at least one state from its respective areas be chosen."

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Noteworthy: The draft resolution cited above lays out criteria for those state parties petitioning the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee (RBC) to be among the primaries and caucuses included in the early primary calendar in 2028. The points are consistent with those that Chair Ken Martin laid out in early August, but it also fleshes that out some by carrying over elements from the 2024 process. For starters, the party is looking for regional representation across four regions of the country in the early window. The RBC will also look to fill the early window -- ranging from the first Tuesday in February to the first Monday in March -- with four to five contests. [There are five Tuesdays in February 2028.]

One thing that is not included in the 2028 list that was among the criteria for 2024 (and will be just as inescapable now)? Feasibility.

More at FHQ Plus (subscription):

DNC Chair Martin lays out early state checklist for 2028

"DNC Chair says Democrats plan to be competitive in Iowa despite caucus uncertainty"

Skylar Tallal at KGAN/CBS2 pulls back the curtain on DNC Chair Martin's latest comments on Democrats running in Iowa in 2026 and the caucuses there in 2028:

"Yet, looking ahead to 2028 and the future of Iowa Democrats regaining their first-in-the-nation title back is still unclear.

"'What's important to me is there's no predetermined outcome in terms of what the calendar looks like,' Martin said. 'Everyone who wants to make a bid will have a fair shot and opportunity to actually make their case including Iowa.'

"Iowa Democrats lost their first-in-the-nation caucuses back in 2024 and have since asked Iowans to fill out a survey asking what they should for 2028 if Iowa is once again left out of the early presidential nominating calendar.

"Martin said him [sic] and the DNC Rules and Bylaws committee, who chooses the order of the calendar, will be looking for states that can test their nominees, is fair and cost efficient."

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Noteworthy: Look, there is not that much here. Tallal's is a story that mainly highlights Democratic efforts from the top down to compete in Iowa in the 2026 midterms. There just is not that much about the calendar, Iowa's place in it and 2028. However, Martin continues to repeat what has been a drumbeat out of the national party concerning its process to select states to fill out the early calendar in the coming presidential cycle. And while the oft-used line about Iowa having the same chance as any other state petitioning the national party to go early in 2028 continues to be trotted out, leaving the door open to Iowa's inclusion in the early window, other signals have been more ominous for Democrats in the Hawkeye state. The scheduling and/or sanctioning of their delegate selection -- be it caucus or party-run primary -- is still months away while the available evidence points toward not being included in the states granted a waiver by the party to go early. 

"Democratic Calendar in Disarray: The Importance of the 2028 Presidential Primary Schedule"

Nick Field, writing at Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball, looks at some of the questions facing Democrats as they set out to put together an early calendar lineup for 2028:

"[T]he primary calendar is now under the purview of the DNC’s Rules and Bylaws Committee. Martin has reshaped this critical committee, as 32 of its 49 members are new, with Martin ousting some party power brokers who haven’t been shy in making their displeasure known far and wide. According to what Martin told Favreau, the committee won’t release their proposed calendar until the winter of 2027...

"Top of the agenda for the group is bound to be whether New Hampshire leads the pack again or South Carolina now assumes that role. There’s also the question of Nevada, and whether any other states can join the pre-Super Tuesday portion of the calendar. This trio of states is set to get two seats each on the Rules and Bylaws Committee, perhaps an indication that none of them will be dropped from the early window.

"All of these scheduling questions could ultimately prove pivotal for the potential 2028 candidates."

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Noteworthy: Perhaps this is one of those cases in which a headline writer was overly playful with an often over-expressed notion -- Dems in disarray -- that does not exactly match the tenor of the piece. However, having written for Crystal Ball a few times over the years, my experience was that the author came up with them. Regardless of whether it was used tongue-in-cheek or seriously, I just do not see that much disarray with the Democrats and their 2028 calendar. 

That is, not yet anyway. 

Look, if used seriously in the context of Nick Field's piece, the usual thicket of rules that the two major parties, but especially the out-party, faces every four years can be confused for disarray. But I don't think it is disarray at this point. After all, Democrats on the Rules and Bylaws Committee (RBC) are literally at the beginning of what is likely to be a lengthy process. Everything is seemingly on the table. 

But as this process progresses and we learn more about how state parties will be able to pitch their primaries or caucuses to the RBC and the new members of the panel get the historical context of the rules and the rules-making process that staff quadrennially provides, that aforementioned everything will winnow down to a much smaller, actually feasible, set of options from which the committee will ultimately choose in the next 18 months.

And no, none of this necessarily portends big changes to the early calendar for 2028. But yes, the New Hampshire question will be among the more prominent ones the RBC will have to tackle.

--

There is more in there to respond to, but I will save that for something over at FHQ Plus, where I have a bit more space to address things.

In the meantime, here is where the 2028 primary calendar currently stands.

"Should Iowa Democrats go 'rogue' and go first with 2028 caucuses? Survey seeks party input"

Brianne Pfannenstiel at The Des Moines Register digs in on where Iowa Democrats are with the 2028 presidential primary calendar process at the starting line:

"As national Democrats begin gearing up for a conversation about the 2028 presidential nominating calendar, Iowa Democrats are asking themselves whether they want to obey the national party’s process or go 'rogue' with a renewed push for first-in-the-nation status.

"In a new survey set released to Iowa Democrats Thursday, Aug. 21, Iowa Democratic Party Chair Rita Hart writes that although the party’s focus is on winning elections in 2026, 'discussions about the 2028 nominating process have begun.'

“'Without an incumbent president on the ballot, we are likely to have one of the deepest and longest nominating campaigns in history,' she wrote in the survey introduction. 'Unlike 2024, the outcome of the presidential nominating process will be in doubt. As Iowa Democrats, we have choices to make about how to proceed.'”

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Noteworthy: Chair Hart struck a pragmatic tone at the outset of the national party's calendar deliberations. While the survey teases the idea that Hawkeye state Democrats may go rogue for 2028, Hart pointed out that 1) it is still much too early and 2) there are a lot of moving parts that will affect what the state party may do with regard to the caucuses next time around, including how the party performs in state contests during the 2026 midterms. 

Others within the party were much more forceful, recently removed DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee member (and Iowa national committeeman) Scott Brennan among them. "Full speed ahead and damn the DNC," he said, striking a defiant posture. 

Of course, Iowa Democrats can be defiant without actually breaking any likely DNC rules for 2028. One should expect the state party to hold early caucuses again during the next cycle. It is, after all, state law. What those early -- January? February? -- caucuses do, however, matters. If they merely select delegates to go to the next step of the caucus/convention process as was the case for the 2024 cycle, then Iowa Democrats will not have held their "first determining step," as the DNC calls it, and will be rules-compliant. 

What matters is not that preliminary selection process. The part that will be and always has been important, not to mention determinative, is the allocation process. If the results of any caucus vote determines which candidates win how ever many delegate slots -- allocation -- then such a caucus would run afoul of DNC rules. 

And it is worth raising another reality: Now that Iowa Democrats have held a mail-in party-run presidential primary, it will be hard for the state party to make the case for returning to the in-person caucuses alone, rogue or not. That is a much more difficult argument to make before the national party and to rank-and-file Democrats in the Hawkeye state. 

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Related at FHQ+:

Background on 2023 state law change and the implications for Iowa Democrats

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More:

Iowa Capital Dispatch: Iowa Democrats launch survey, discussion on future of presidential caucuses

Associated Press: Iowa Democrats consider bringing back lead off caucuses, even if it means going ‘rogue’ in 2028

"Inside the Dems' fight to be 'the new Iowa' and hold the first 2028 primary"

Alex Thompson at Axios pulls back the curtain on the beginning of the Democrats' process to set the 2028 early calendar :

"Democratic Party officials are quietly battling over which state will be the first to vote in the 2028 presidential primary — a fight that's set to break into the open next week, when the officials meet in Minneapolis.

"Nevada, New Hampshire, and Michigan are currently the frontrunners to be 'the new Iowa,' and lead off the 2028 Democratic primary season, according to several people familiar with the Rules and Bylaws committee that will determine the order."

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Noteworthy: First of all, I don't know how much "fight[ing]" or "battling" there is over the calendar at this point. As Thompson notes much further on in the story than was probably necessary, the process is at the starting line. If there are fights now, then that portends a likely ugly process. It won't be. It will be politics as it usually is. State parties will jockey for early spots, candidates will push their preferences (directly or through proxies/supporters on the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee and those members of the panel will have their own opinions as well. There will be some push and pull, and things may get heated along the way -- they probably won't (although it may be reported that way) -- but the calendar is a collective action problem the party's new (as of the 2024 cycle) process has already resolved once. 

As for "the new Iowa," well, Michigan was already the new Iowa in 2024. The Great Lakes state became the midwestern state in the early window. And, yes, South Carolina was the new first (sanctioned) state in the process as well. Would Nevada, New Hampshire and Michigan not be vying to be the new South Carolina? 

And finally, this passage from Thompson's piece merits a response:

"For decades, Iowa's caucuses and New Hampshire's primary kicked off the presidential primary season.

"But the order of contests has become a free-for-all since Iowa botched its caucuses in 2020, and then-President Biden changed the calendar in 2024 to favor his re-election bid by moving up the primary in Biden-friendly South Carolina."

I don't know that Iowa's caucus experience in 2020 triggered the reexamination of the calendar. It was a part of it, but the DNC was already moving in the direction of diversifying the early calendar and opening the process up for 2024. The party voluntarily moved toward an orderly process -- not a free-for-all -- whereby Iowa and New Hampshire (and Nevada and South Carolina) no longer received (near) automatic waivers to hold early contests. Rather, all state parties -- those that wanted to anyway -- could pitch the party on being early. 

And then as now, the early favorites to win those slots were states that were mostly already early. That's the story here: that Nevada, New Hampshire and Michigan are the states being talked about now as the possible first Democratic primary state for 2028. All were granted early spots during the last cycle.

Bottom line: there is a long way to go, folks.

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More on the 2028 presidential primary calendar here and here.

"DNC chair says Democrats will start process of setting 2028 primary calendar this month"

Sarah Fortinsky at the The Hill summarizes DNC Chair Ken Martin's comments on the 2028 Democratic primary calendar:

"Democratic National Committee (DNC) Chair Ken Martin said on Sunday that the party will begin deliberating the 2028 primary calendar later this month at a meeting in Minneapolis.

"'We’re going to start that conversation actually this month in August at our DNC meeting in Minneapolis,' Martin said in an interview on NewsNation’s 'The Hill Sunday,' when host Chris Stirewalt asked about the primary calendar in the next president election.

"'The Rules and Bylaws Committee, which is newly composed, will start this conversation by putting forward the rules and procedures, and start to really figure out how we’re going to engage in this,' he continued.

"Martin said the process will play out over the next year, and he expects to have a calendar set by the end of next year."

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Noteworthy: The rough timeline here suggests that the DNC will carry over some elements of the process from the 2024 cycle. That the final calendar decisions at the national party level did not come down until not only after the 2022 midterms but in December of that year was a break from the protocol the party had utilized in most previous post-reform cycles. Usually, those early window calendar slots were settled on in the late summer/early fall of the midterm year alongside the formal final adoption of the entire rules package for the upcoming presidential nomination process. 

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More from FHQ Plus (subscription):

DNC Chair Martin lays out early state checklist for 2028