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Thursday, May 28, 2026

"Republicans are gutting southern Dem districts. Dems might front-load the South in its 2028 primaries to respond."

Lisa Kashinsky at Politico reports on the possibility of two southern states making it into the early window of the 2028 presidential primary calendar, post-Callais:

"Democrats are weighing whether they can use their 2028 primary calendar to try to rebuild their party’s strength in the South amid aggressive GOP gerrymanders.

"As Democratic National Committee members meet in D.C. this week to discuss which states will lead the next presidential nominating contest, the GOP push to dismantle majority-Black districts and dilute Democrats’ power across the South is ratcheting up the selection stakes. Some members are now advocating for two southern states to make the cut as the Callais ruling adds fresh urgency to Democrats’ long-running debate over how to amplify the voices of Black voters who have long been the party’s backbone."

Noteworthy: A couple of thoughts about this...

Even before the Callais decision came down, it was true that approaching a majority of the states -- five of 12 -- that applied for a waiver from the Rules and Bylaws Committee (RBC) to hold an early contest in 2028 were from the south. That has not changed following the decision. As I said at our sister site, FHQ Plus back in January: "The only other mysteries are if there will be a fifth state and which state that may be. The overrepresentation of southern states in the pool may give the region an advantage in claiming a second spot among the would-be five early states. Granted, that is far from guaranteed." Post-Callais, that overrepresentation of the South positions the DNC to make a statement with the calendar. [Side note: Bear in mind also that the DNC attempted to get two southern states into the early window for 2024 as well.]
As a counterpoint, however, look at the 2028 presidential primary calendar and consider the southern states that have applied for early state status...

North Carolina? Super Tuesday.
Tennessee? Super Tuesday.
Virginia? Super Tuesday.
Georgia? Regardless of the partisan affiliation of the next Secretary of State in the Peach state, they can easily -- and without penalty from either party -- set a Super Tuesday date for the Georgia primary.
And hey, throw in Alabama, Arkansas, Oklahoma and Texas? All Super Tuesday primaries.

There is an argument that the calendar is already frontloaded with southern states, a remnant of Republican efforts across the region to create an "SEC primary" ahead of 2016. The only thing that separates those states above from the early window on the 2028 calendar is at most a week and possibly even just a weekend before Super Tuesday. That does not preclude the RBC from granting early state waivers to two southern states, but such a move may or may not be superfluous,given how southern-tinged the front of the calendar already is.

Related at FHQ Plus (subscription)...

Now we know which states they are looking at

Some thoughts on the 2028 Democratic primary calendar process now that the deadline for state parties to apply with the DNC has come and gone

"5 Southern Democratic chairs say South Carolina should lead off 2028 presidential primary calendar"

Meg Kinard at the AP sets the stage for the presentation South Carolina Democrats will make to the Rules and Bylaws Committee for going early in 2028:

"Democratic leaders in a handful of southern states are lobbying for South Carolina to reprise its role as the party’s first-in-the-nation state to cast primary ballots in 2028, arguing that the state best represents the initial playing field for presidential candidates to build the coalitions needed to win.

"The state party chairs of five Democratic parties wrote a letter Thursday to the Democratic National Committee calling on party leaders 'to do everything in your power to ensure South Carolina continues to serve as the indispensable first proving ground for Democratic presidential nominees.' The DNC is currently debating the order in which states will vote in the next round of presidential primaries.

"The state should hold the first presidential balloting in 2028, they argued, in part because it 'is not simply a geographic starting point. It is a moral and political compass for our party and our nation.'”

...

“'The fight for voting rights is no longer just a courtroom battle, it is an electoral one,' the Democratic chairs from Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi and West Virginia wrote in the letter, provided to The Associated Press ahead of its release. 'And it begins in South Carolina.'”

Noteworthy: There are five states from the south, including South Carolina, that have applied with the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee (RBC) to hold early contests in 2028. The Democrat chairs in all of the other southern states, save Florida and Texas, back the Palmetto state's bid to go not only early but first. It is an endorsement that will likely carry some weight with the members of the RBC, coming from fellow DNC members.

Now, it may not ultimately prove decisive in this selection process, but this is an endorsement that will not hurt South Carolina Democrats' case for an early slot in 2028.

And it is worth noting that this sort of endorsement from fellow regional allies is unique so far to the presentation stage of the selection process. No other applicant states have brought forth anything similar in their pitches to the panel.

Related at FHQ Plus (subscription)...

Now we know which states they are looking at

Some thoughts on the 2028 Democratic primary calendar process now that the deadline for state parties to apply with the DNC has come and gone

Filibuster threat was the undoing of Missouri presidential primary bill

There is one last footnote to the latest failed attempt in Jefferson City to restore the Missouri presidential primary. From Rep. Rudy Veit (R-59th, Wardsville), summing up his work during the 2026 session of the General Assembly to constituents in the local paper:

Unfortunately, my presidential primary bill failed during the final week of session after one senator announced plans to extend floor debate or filibuster the measure, effectively ending any opportunity to move it forward before adjournment. The bill had broad bipartisan support among both Republican and Democratic party organizations and passed overwhelmingly in the House. To be quite honest, the bill has been routinely blocked by individuals who know that they stand to gain from having a closed primary. It seems to me that there is no reason to have a closed presidential primary except to reduce the number of people who are able to participate in the process, particularly people who work, have families, or other commitments. This especially deprives people like our military service members, firefighters, police officers, teachers, and other professionals who cannot easily take off work to go vote in a closed primary. If you see someone opposing an open presidential primary in Missouri, you can safely assume that they want nothing more than to increase their own power and clout at the cost of your ability to participate in our elections.

Ultimately, my position is simple: we should always strive to have a voting system that promotes citizen participation, and that any limitation on when you vote or who you vote for should be scrutinized to the highest degree. Unless limitations on voting are absolutely necessary, such as being able to identify yourself, they should not exist. I do not think this should be controversial in a democratic society.

Noteworthy: The Missouri Senate has been where these efforts to revive the presidential primary have gone to die. That is, if they make it through the state House. A few bills have managed to navigate through the lower chamber -- and this session's moved the closest to full passage of any of the measures over the last four sessions -- but the Senate continues to be a backstop against the primary efforts. And leaving the primary open remains the final obstacle. The Veit/Banderman bill in 2026 ultimately addressed all of the other concerns that have been raised by opponents in recent years.

See also:

12/10/25: Missouri Senate bills prefiled to reinstate presidential primary

12/18/25: Missouri House again tees up host of bills to resurrect the defunct Show-Me state presidential primary

1/28/26: "House committee kills plan to reinstate Missouri presidential primary"

2/3/26: Another one bites the dust: Missouri Senate bill stripped of provision to reestablish a presidential primary

3/5/26: Missouri House Elections Committee reports amended Super Tuesday primary bill "do pass"

4/1/26: Super Tuesday presidential primary bill gets the green light from second Missouri House committee

4/7/26: Missouri House clears Super Tuesday presidential primary bill for final passage

4/9/26: Missouri House passes Super Tuesday presidential primary bill

4/29/26: "Missouri Senate committee debates plan to reinstate presidential primary for 2028"

5/5/26: Missouri Senate committee gives Super Tuesday presidential primary bill the thumbs up

5/6/26: Super Tuesday presidential primary bill clears committee hurdle in Missouri Senate

5/18/26: The close of the 2026 legislative session kills the latest attempt to restore Missouri's presidential primary

This action has been added to the annotated 2028 presidential primary calendar over at our sister site, FHQ Plus.

Related at FHQ Plus (subscription)...

Hopping back on the Missouri presidential primary merry-go-round

A newly amended bill in Jefferson City would bring the primary back to the Show-Me state and shake up Missouri's delegate selection/allocation process along the way

Tuesday, May 26, 2026

"Democrats to pitch new-look Iowa Caucuses in bid to go first once more"

Brianne Pfannenstiel at the Des Moines Register shares the latest on Iowa Democrats push to return to the early window for 2028:

"Iowa Democrats will travel to Washington, D.C., this week to pitch a streamlined caucus plan they hope will convince national party leaders that Iowa deserves another shot to be at the front of the presidential nominating calendar."

...

"Iowa Democratic Party Chair Rita Hart has argued repeatedly that the [DNC Rules and Bylaws] committee should reconsider Iowa as Democrats work to regain ground with rural, working-class voters who have fled the party in droves.

"'In order to do that, we've got to have a state like Iowa where any Democratic presidential candidate can compete, where it's affordable and where the candidates can look forward to getting up close and personal and really understanding the issues that will bring us back to an understanding of working class voters,' Hart told the Des Moines Register."

Noteworthy: The devil, as always, is in the details.

More will obviously be revealed when the Iowa Democratic delegation makes its case before the RBC this week, but one thing is clear in Pfannenstiel's interview with Chair Hart: The old caucuses are gone.

There would be no more physical gathering in groups at caucus sites, determining viability (15 percent support) and realigning among viable groups to begin the process of calculating state delegate equivalents for the next steps in the overall caucus/convention process. All of that is out, streamlined and replaced by paper ballots similar to those used in the Iowa Republican presidential caucus process but to be preceded by an absentee voting period in the lead up to the caucus meeting (a carry over from the 2024 Democratic process).

Part the RBC will likely enjoy seeing included: the streamlined process. Anything that appears miles simpler than the 2020 process will go a long way.

Part(s) the RBC may push back on: Not only having a party-run process lead off (or be early on) the 2028 presidential primary calendar, but having a heretofore untested new (albeit simplified) party-run process be a part of the early window. Of the 12 states applying for an early window waiver, only Iowa is proposing a party-run affair. The remaining 11 all have state-run presidential primary elections.

Related at FHQ Plus (subscription)...

Now we know which states they are looking at

Some thoughts on the 2028 Democratic primary calendar process now that the deadline for state parties to apply with the DNC has come and gone

Monday, May 18, 2026

The close of the 2026 legislative session kills the latest attempt to restore Missouri's presidential primary

The 2026 session of the Missouri General Assembly adjourned on Friday, May 15. One bill that died in the process was HB 2387/2480, a measure that would have reestablished a state-funded presidential primary in the Show-Me state for the first time since the 2020 cycle.

The legislation passed the state House with broad bipartisan support and made it through the committee stage on the Senate side. However, in the waning days of the session in Jefferson City, the bill was never brought up on the floor of the upper chamber.

And thus ended another chapter in the ongoing effort to restore the presidential primary election in Missouri.

Noteworthy: Close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades. And since the Missouri presidential primary is neither of those, this bill getting further into the legislative process than any of the other measures attempting to restore the primary since the election was eliminated by an act of the General Assembly in 2022, it does not count for much. But the incremental progress across the 2023, 2024, 2025 and now 2026 sessions suggests that 1) there will be another push in 2027 and 2) there is just one more hurdle -- Senate passage -- left to clear in the legislature.

But the Missouri Senate has proven to be particularly cumbersome obstacle over the last four sessions. That there is just one roadblock left to clear, then, does not speak to the level of resistance among majority Republicans in the upper chamber. And none of this, of course, says anything about how receptive the governor would be to the idea. Both, however, remain a story for 2027.

[It is unlikely that there is enough urgency to bring the presidential primary up in any special session that may be convened in the interregnum before the 2027 session gavels in in Jefferson City.]