Friday, July 10, 2026
"Would You Let New Mexico Pick the President?"
At FHQ Plus: The die appears cast for ranked choice voting in the 2028 presidential nomination races
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Wednesday, July 1, 2026
At FHQ Plus: Democrats devise their own super penalty for primary calendar violations
June 25, 2026.
Yes, it is a date like any other, but in FHQ’s estimation, it is a date worth marking on your, ahem, calendar. No, it was not the date of some presidential primary, the sort of calendar marking we do around here. Instead, it was the date of another in a long line of DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee (RBC) meetings. However, depending on how the party finalizes its decisions on waivers for states to conduct early window (pre-March) primaries or caucuses in 2028, it is a meeting and a date that stand to be referenced often in 2027, 2028 and, perhaps, even beyond.--
Monday, June 29, 2026
Nevada's first in the nation bid earns major endorsements from national Latino, AAPI groups
Wednesday, June 24, 2026
At FHQ Plus: What would happen if Democrats raised the 15% qualifying threshold for delegates to 20%?
The Democratic Party has not always had a threshold candidates have had to surpass in order to qualify for delegates in its post-reform presidential nomination process, but it has operated under a flat 15 percent threshold since the rule was clarified for the 1992 cycle. That is nine cycles — six of them competitive — in which the 15 percent threshold has been utilized in the Democratic process. And it looks like that will extend to a tenth cycle in 2028.
Although, at a recent Rules and Bylaws Committee (RBC) meeting in Washington, DC there were some questions raised about where the qualifying threshold has been set. And that is something that stood in fairly stark contrast to the rules-crafting sessions the panel has undertaken during cycles of the recent past. No, nothing changed for 2028, but the idea of either raising or lowering the threshold was broached (in what turned out to be an aside) in the nation’s capital at the end of May.
Now, the May meeting was ostensibly for the RBC to hear pitches from the 12 state parties vying for spots in the early window of the party’s 2028 presidential primary calendar. But a third day — well, half a day really — was devoted to continuing the process of going line by line through the DNC delegate selection guidelines, making any amendments along the way to the rules that will govern the party’s 2028 nomination process. The threshold discussion that followed came when the panel got to Rule 14.B. Here is how that rule read going into the May meeting (before any amendments):
States shall allocate district-level delegates and alternates in proportion to the percentage of the primary or caucus vote won in that district by each preference, except that preferences falling below a fifteen percent (15%) threshold shall not be awarded any delegates. Subject to section F. of this rule, no state shall have a threshold above or below fifteen percent (15%).
It was there that DNC member Wendy Davis (Georgia) interjected to inquire about possibly lowering the 15 percent threshold in view of the fact that the party is likely to see another logjam of candidates similar to the 2020 cycle. [The following is a transcript of the discussion lightly edited for clarity.]
Davis: So this is to my recollection the first instance we’ve talked about the 15 percent threshold. Would this be the place for us to discuss whether we wanted to maintain a 15 percent rule or potentially lower the threshold since there going to be so many candidates? It seems pretty high to me when we’re gonna…the early states will have [so many candidates].
After RBC co-Chair Minyon Moore responded, she yielded the floor to longtime DNC member Elaine Kamarck (Virginia) to provide some context on the history of the 15 percent rule and to subsequently make a case for potentially raising the threshold to 20 percent. [Again, and for transparency, this has been edited slightly for clarity.]
Kamarck: I can talk a little bit about that. I mean we’ve had thresholds as high as 25 percent at some point. There was a lot of support for [a] 20 percent threshold which I personally would favor: a slightly higher threshold. Here’s the problem I see with the 15 percent threshold. I want to go right to the content of this. There are many delegate districts that have only three delegates, okay? Or four delegates. That’s because there’s a lot of congressional districts that are Republican districts and they just don’t have enough of a Democratic vote to get a lot of delegates. And in those districts, nobody with 16 percent ever gets a delegate.
So we have this idea that somehow if you get 15 percent, you’re going to get a delegate. It just doesn’t happen, you know? It just doesn’t happen mathematically unless you’re maybe in the handful of districts that get nine delegates. And those are almost all majority minority districts, which, thank you Republican Party, they’ve now busted up. So the illusion of 15 percent is just an illusion. It just never happens. So, I think it is much more realistic to move it to, say, a 20 percent threshold, particularly when we’re looking at races that there’s going to be just a ton of candidates.
So I like this. It has always been argued that this [the 15 percent threshold] would be greater inclusion, right? And that was the rationale for 15%. The problem is that nobody ever gets included under a 15 percent in a multi-candidate race anyway.
Davis: Not even at the at-large level?
Kamarck: No, it doesn’t even work out at the at-large [level]. But at the district level, it really doesn’t work out. So, I would love to have, I would love to see a 20 percent threshold. I think of all the years when we should do it, this is the time. So, I thank you for bringing it up.
Now, FHQ’s initial reaction to Kamarck’s case was that it sounded right. Honestly, I do not often make a habit of contradicting her in this area.3 And my recollection was (and is) that a five percent shift up to 20 percent probably would not make much of a difference anyway. Yes, there is the math of it that Kamarck notes (more on that below), but also the reality is that, beyond a contest or two into the sequence of primaries and caucuses, there just are not that many candidates who clear the 15 percent threshold to claim many delegates.
After all, the winnowing starts well before delegate counting really kicks in. Wins and losses (outright or relative to expectations) are sufficient to separate the wheat from the chaff early on during the momentum phase of the calendar before delegates become the currency of the process. Yet, delegate counting does not begin in earnest until a little deeper into the calendar when more delegates than are typically available in the early window of the calendar are on the line, during any later delegate phase of the process.
But Kamarck’s notion of the limited impact of a change to a 20 percent threshold is a testable hypothesis. So let’s test it.
Over at FHQ Plus, I will briefly look back at the history of the qualifying threshold in the Democratic presidential nomination process, discuss the purpose of such a mechanism and examine the evidence of what a shift to a 20 percent threshold would have looked like during the Democratic nomination races of the 21st century.
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Friday, June 19, 2026
Gov. McKee's signature moves Rhode Island presidential primary to Super Tuesday
Wednesday, June 17, 2026
Idaho Republicans to consider resolution to get the Gem state out of the primary business altogether
WHEREAS: The goal of the Idaho Republican party is to select candidates who best represent the Idaho Republican Platform and who will vote to maintain a conservative Idaho way of life.WHEREAS: Republican candidates, elected to office, have failed to vote to uphold the Idaho Constitution, the Republican Platform, and conservative values they espoused when campaigning.WHEREAS: The ability to select the candidates who best represent Republican Party Values in primary elections has been jeopardized by candidates misrepresenting themselves as Republicans to be competitive.WHEREAS: The Idaho closed Republican primary has been irrevocably compromised by non-Republican voters’ ability to register as Republicans for the primary election and the state has no way of stopping this practice.WHEREAS: The state has no remedy for closed primary crossover votingWHEREAS: Unaffiliated and newly registered voters can choose to vote in the Republican primary on election dayWHEREAS: Caucusing diminishes the ability for non-Republicans to infiltrate the Republican Party vote for representation.WHEREAS: Caucusing allows more engaged discussion, debate, and informed voter participation to discern the candidates most representative of the Idaho Republican Platform, conservative values, and the Idaho Constitution.
New legislation proposes slight shift in New Jersey primary timing
"This year, the June 2 primary triggered in-person early voting to begin on the day after Memorial Day. Stack wants some daylight between the holiday weekend and the start of the six-day early voting period.“'The whole purpose of six days of early voting in the primary is to increase voter turnout,' Stack said. 'Starting right after Memorial Day really crimps the turnout. It defeats the purpose.'"Some election officials noted that being closed on the day before the first day of early voting creates obstacles to early voting, including confirming board workers and delivering machines."
Friday, June 12, 2026
On to the governor: Super Tuesday primary bills clear final legislative hurdles in Rhode Island
Thursday, June 11, 2026
Rhode Island Senate committee tees up concurrence vote on Super Tuesday presidential primary bill
Thursday, June 4, 2026
Super Tuesday presidential primary bill unanimously passes Rhode Island Senate
Rhode Island Senate committee advances Super Tuesday presidential primary bill
Thursday, May 28, 2026
"Republicans are gutting southern Dem districts. Dems might front-load the South in its 2028 primaries to respond."
- Even before the Callais decision came down, it was true that approaching a majority of the states -- five of 12 -- that applied for a waiver from the Rules and Bylaws Committee (RBC) to hold an early contest in 2028 were from the south. That has not changed following the decision. As I said at our sister site, FHQ Plus back in January: "The only other mysteries are if there will be a fifth state and which state that may be. The overrepresentation of southern states in the pool may give the region an advantage in claiming a second spot among the would-be five early states. Granted, that is far from guaranteed." Post-Callais, that overrepresentation of the South positions the DNC to make a statement with the calendar. [Side note: Bear in mind also that the DNC attempted to get two southern states into the early window for 2024 as well.]
- As a counterpoint, however, look at the 2028 presidential primary calendar and consider the southern states that have applied for early state status...
- North Carolina? Super Tuesday.
- Tennessee? Super Tuesday.
- Virginia? Super Tuesday.
- Georgia? Regardless of the partisan affiliation of the next Secretary of State in the Peach state, they can easily -- and without penalty from either party -- set a Super Tuesday date for the Georgia primary.
- And hey, throw in Alabama, Arkansas, Oklahoma and Texas? All Super Tuesday primaries.
There is an argument that the calendar is already frontloaded with southern states, a remnant of Republican efforts across the region to create an "SEC primary" ahead of 2016. The only thing that separates those states above from the early window on the 2028 calendar is at most a week and possibly even just a weekend before Super Tuesday. That does not preclude the RBC from granting early state waivers to two southern states, but such a move may or may not be superfluous given how southern-tinged the front of the calendar already is.
"5 Southern Democratic chairs say South Carolina should lead off 2028 presidential primary calendar"
Filibuster threat was the undoing of Missouri presidential primary bill
Unfortunately, my presidential primary bill failed during the final week of session after one senator announced plans to extend floor debate or filibuster the measure, effectively ending any opportunity to move it forward before adjournment. The bill had broad bipartisan support among both Republican and Democratic party organizations and passed overwhelmingly in the House. To be quite honest, the bill has been routinely blocked by individuals who know that they stand to gain from having a closed primary. It seems to me that there is no reason to have a closed presidential primary except to reduce the number of people who are able to participate in the process, particularly people who work, have families, or other commitments. This especially deprives people like our military service members, firefighters, police officers, teachers, and other professionals who cannot easily take off work to go vote in a closed primary. If you see someone opposing an open presidential primary in Missouri, you can safely assume that they want nothing more than to increase their own power and clout at the cost of your ability to participate in our elections.Ultimately, my position is simple: we should always strive to have a voting system that promotes citizen participation, and that any limitation on when you vote or who you vote for should be scrutinized to the highest degree. Unless limitations on voting are absolutely necessary, such as being able to identify yourself, they should not exist. I do not think this should be controversial in a democratic society.
Tuesday, May 26, 2026
"Democrats to pitch new-look Iowa Caucuses in bid to go first once more"
Monday, May 18, 2026
The close of the 2026 legislative session kills the latest attempt to restore Missouri's presidential primary
Wednesday, May 6, 2026
Super Tuesday presidential primary bill clears committee hurdle in Missouri Senate
Tuesday, May 5, 2026
Missouri Senate committee gives Super Tuesday presidential primary bill the thumbs up
Thursday, April 30, 2026
Rhode Island House passes Super Tuesday presidential primary bill
- As the committee chair who introduced the H 7090 on the floor noted before passage, a Super Tuesday primary would align Rhode Island with most of its New England area neighbors on the primary calendar. Maine, Massachusetts and Vermont are all already positioned on Super Tuesday. New Hampshire will continue to be an exception with an earlier primary and Connecticut has yet to make any move to join the others in March for 2028.
- Rhode Island has not been a part of Super Tuesday since 2004. The state was one of the rare few who did not move into February to join the Super Tuesday logjam in 2008 and then moved back into April alongside a number of neighbors for 2012. It has remained on the back half of the primary calendar ever since. [One could argue that Rhode Island was not on Super Tuesday in 2004. It was a cycle in which Democrats allowed February contests and while some states took advantage of the rule change, the biggest shift to the earlier point did not occur until 2008. The effect in 2004 was to make the early March Super Tuesday a bit less crowded -- a bit less super -- and the overall calendar less frontloaded than was the case in 2000. Still, the most delegates of the 2004 cycle were at stake on the first Tuesday in March.]
- Other chambers have passed presidential primary legislation across the country during this 2026 legislative session, but most have died along the way. Rhode Island actually shows some signs of momentum on this front. The list of legislative backers in both chambers in Providence means H 7090 will likely face a favorable audience in the upper chamber. And the unanimous vote in the House likely will not hamper that progress.
