"Democrats battle over who votes first in 2028, a proxy for the party’s future"

Maeve Reston and Dylan Wells at The Washington Post provide the latest on deadline day as state parties scramble to apply to be among the early states on the 2028 calendar:

"The lobbying campaign is one of the most aggressive in a battle royal among states seeking to get early spots in the party’s 2028 nominating calendar. The fight over the order formally begins Friday when about a dozen states are expected to submit proposals to the Democratic National Committee to get early spots, a privilege that gives their voters and politicians added influence and attention.

"The contest is not only important to the party and individual states involved but also exemplifies the broader debate among Democrats over how — both in its policies and its process — to improve their positioning for presidential contests.

"Many Democratic insiders argue that their viability could hinge on designing an early state gauntlet that better pressure-tests their 2028 nominee and more accurately reflects the racial, socioeconomic and geographic makeup of the party. The decisions of where to campaign affect which voters get to shape the conversation and the set of issues that candidates prioritize. Iowa’s longtime hold on the nation’s first caucuses, for example, is credited with helping farmers preserve subsidy programs, while South Carolina’s large population of Black Democrats helped Joe Biden overcome earlier losses in Iowa and New Hampshire in 2020.

This year, Nevada, New Hampshire and South Carolina are among the states pushing hardest for the first spot, according to interviews with more than a dozen DNC members, party strategists and state chairs. Michigan, Georgia, North Carolina, Iowa and Virginia are also vying for either the first spot or at least a spot in the early window, before a busy day of state contests known as Super Tuesday. And the lobbying — which includes a fair amount of state-on-state jousting — has been going on behind-the-scenes for several months."

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Noteworthy: One thing that is consistent across this round of news dispatches ahead of the Democrats' early state application deadline is that the group of states listed as "fighting hardest for" and/or likely to end up first in the order of states on the 2028 presidential primary calendar has shifted. It is a slight shift, but it is a shift. 

Calendar news trickled out in 2025, but what little there was tended to be dominated by mentions of three states likeliest to be at the head of the queue for Democrats in 2028: Michigan, Nevada and New Hampshire. In addition, the reporting throughout 2025 also painted a bleak picture of the prospect of the first state on the 2024 calendar, South Carolina. 

It is different now on both fronts. 

Michigan and South Carolina have seemingly reversed roles. The former is now seemingly to repeating the "just happy to be in the early window" line that was earlier associated with South Carolina. Meanwhile, the latter in now more often mentioned as a distinct possibility for the first slot. 

Why? What changed? [There is a question for you, reporters.]

Some of the explanation, FHQ suspects, boils down to the combination of timing and sources. It was early enough in the process in the summer that the notion of which state would lead the calendar in 2028 was still theoretical and sources were willing to speculate. Now that state parties are starting to actually apply for the honor of being sanctioned the first contest, there are some actual states in the mix, no longer just theoretically so. 

Earlier sources tended to have been DNC members as well and they often discussed which states could go first. This go-round of reporting ahead of the deadline appears to have incorporated more state-level voices in the discussion, voices that are actively lobbying to go first. There is a difference there in what is being covered.

Anyway, it should not be lost on anyone that regardless of the above distinctions between Michigan and South Carolina, the two states that are in both sets of reporting -- summer 2025 and now -- are Nevada and New Hampshire. That is not by mistake. Read into it what one might, but there is a signal in there and folks following the 2028 calendar process should probably take heed. 

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Related at FHQ Plus (subscription)...

Deadline day approaches for would-be early Democratic states for 2028 

Some thoughts from FHQ now that the deadline has drawn the attention of the media