The DeSantis-is-sinking stories may be oversold to some degree, but...

Invisible Primary: Visible -- Thoughts on the invisible primary and links to the goings on of the moment as 2024 approaches...

First, over at FHQ Plus...

• Trump either wins Iowa or plays the victim card next January. Does Iowa even matter in 2024? Yeah, the caucuses in the Hawkeye state still matter. All the details at FHQ Plus.

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In Invisible Primary: Visible today...

...

There has been a lot of ink spilled in the last week or two about the shape the DeSantis campaign is in a little more than a month since the Florida governor launched his bid for the Republican nomination. Donors are nervous. Deck chairs are being moved. Murdochs are looking elsewhere. Poll numbers are plateauing if not trending downward. And that collective picture could portend an ominous swing into debate season starting next month. Or it could be blip on the radar, a summer lull. Time will tell that tale, but DeSantis remains the clear second option in the current field, albeit not as clear as it may have once been. He continues to bring in money at a pretty good clip. And for some reason he continues to draw in a fair number of endorsements. He may not be best positioned in the race for the 2024 Republican nomination, but he is well positioned even despite the current (real or perceived depending on the metric used) slide.

But here is the thing: DeSantis is now flirting with the threshold for qualifying for delegates that will be used in a lot of states. He is on the wrong side of 20 percent in the latest Morning Consult national poll. No, the Republican nomination process is not a national primary, but not being able to meet delegate qualifying thresholds will kill a campaign quickly once votes begin to be cast. 

...if the ship is not righted. 

There are still six months until the Iowa caucuses and the first few states -- at least as the rules are understood at this point -- have low bars to claim (small shares) of delegates. There is no formal threshold in Iowa, it is set at 10 percent in New Hampshire and Nevada's rules in previous cycles have set the threshold below five percent. But the winner-take-all by congressional district method South Carolina Republicans use is not forgiving and neither are rules in the Super Tuesday states, the majority of which have the maximum 20 percent threshold. 17 percent for DeSantis still puts space between him and the rest of the field, but it is far enough behind Trump right now that the Florida governor is in danger of missing out on delegates when it counts next March and beyond. 

Still, much can happen between now and the voting phase and that could be good or bad for DeSantis.

...

Not surprisingly, New Hampshire Secretary of State David Scanlan is giving January 23 a good look for an eventual landing spot for the presidential primary in the Granite state. That has made sense since South Carolina Republicans settled on a February 24 date for their primary, clearing enough space in front of the South Carolina Democratic primary for both Iowa and New Hampshire in January next year. But there is a question that has to be answered first before Scanlan is able to pull the trigger later this fall on that late January date. 

...

From around the invisible primary...

• In the money primary, President Joe Biden and the DNC laid down a marker, raking in $72 million in the second quarter after the president's late April launch. By comparison, the last incumbent raised $105 million during the second quarter period in 2019. That was Trump and the RNC combined.
• Much has been made about the impact Donald Trump's comments on Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds' neutrality in the 2024 Republican nomination, but it remains to be seen just how much go an impact that will have long term in the state with the nation's first contest. However, in the short term at least, it has cost the former president in the endorsement primary in the Hawkeye state. State Senator Jeff Reichman defected to Ron DeSantis, shifting away from Trump.
• In the travel primary, yes, most everyone is in Iowa for the Family Leadership Summit, but DeSantis will head to South Carolina early next week and will become the first to file for the February 24 presidential primary in the Palmetto state. It will not be the last state in which DeSantis or any other candidate files: 2024 primary and caucus filing deadlines calendar.
• Speaking of South Carolina, The State had a nice piece up last week looking at Nikki Haley's relationship with the state legislature in her time as governor in the Palmetto state. She went against the grain in some respects and may have rubbed some the wrong way. 

...

On this date...

...in 1972, South Dakota Senator George McGovern accepted the Democratic presidential nomination in the wee hours of the morning of July 14 in Miami.

...in 2007, former Virginia Governor Jim Gilmore dropped out of the race for the 2008 Republican presidential nomination. 

--

Recent posts:

The Trump Campaign has been very disciplined on endorsements during the 2024 cycle

Nevada GOP Primary/Caucus Lawsuit Shot Down in Carson City

Outside groups working against Trump

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See more on our political/electoral consulting venture at FHQ Strategies. 

The Trump Campaign has been very disciplined on endorsements during the 2024 cycle

Invisible Primary: Visible -- Thoughts on the invisible primary and links to the goings on of the moment as 2024 approaches...

First, over at FHQ Plus...

• Colorado Republicans have been on a bit of a ride in terms of how they have selected delegates to the national convention over the last several cycles. The state party has a proposal to take another evolutionary step for 2024, a proposal that would empower the candidates and their campaigns in the selection process. All the details at FHQ Plus.

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In Invisible Primary: Visible today...

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Donald Trump got endorsements earlier this week from all six Republicans members of the Michigan delegation to the US House. It is another show of institutional force in a race the former president leads by a wide margin (as measured by surveys, fundraising or endorsements). But it served as another datapoint in an interesting split in the endorsement primary at the moment. As in Florida earlier this year, Trump dominated his next nearest competitor, Ron DeSantis, in the congressional endorsements from the Sunshine state. Team DeSantis countered with wave of state legislative endorsements from Florida Republicans. 

The tit-for-tat between the two has been the same in the Great Lakes state. DeSantis made the first move back in April when Never Back Down rolled out a raft of state legislative endorsements. And now Trump has responded by locking down the congressional delegation. Again, it is interesting. Trump has the upper hand, but DeSantis retains the ability to hold his own in ways that allow him to make the case to not just stay in the race but to show he has the potential to be in for the long haul.

Of course, just because a candidate can stay in for the long haul does not mean he or she will. The point is, despite all the negative chatter around DeSantis in recent days, he and his campaign remain well-positioned in the race for the Republican nomination. But the Trump campaign is markedly disciplined in this cycle on the endorsement front. Often when there is an event approaching, the former president's team will released another round of endorsements from the state in which the event is being held. Team Trump did that in Tennessee earlier this year in the lead up to a Republican gathering and again in Pennsylvania ahead of the Moms for Liberty event in Philadelphia recently. So while the recent chatter may be about the foibles of the DeSantis campaign, it is also a function of what the Trump campaign has done (and done well). 

...

FHQ is late to this one, but I thought Jonathan Bernstein's piece earlier this week at Bloomberg on the chaos that Republicans are inviting in their 2024 debates process was very good. 

...

From around the invisible primary...

• In the money primary, South Carolina Senator Tim Scott is the latest 2024 Republican to post his fundraising haul from the second quarter. For the last three months concluding at the end of June, Scott pulled in $6 million, roughly on par with what Nikki Haley raised during that time. And Scott has a hefty super PAC warchest as well. 
• There may be more on the way for the junior senator in the Palmetto state. Big money Republican donors are starting to kick the tires on Scott with DeSantis in a real or perceived holding pattern.
• And one more on Scott: Both he and Chris Christie have hit the donor threshold to qualify for the first Republican primary debate next month. 
• Much of the current negativity around the DeSantis campaign may be legitimate. It may also be overblown. Campaigns at this level are often on a knife's edge. But whether it is real or not, one of the things to eye (as a real operationalization of that) is how much emphasis Team DeSantis puts on Iowa. Yes, Trump and DeSantis have been "eyeing Super Tuesday states," but that is not anything that is new. However, if the DeSantis campaign and affiliated groups begin to put all or most of their eggs in the Iowa basket, then that could be a sign that the campaign's options (on a number of fronts) are waning. Wooing evangelicals in the Hawkeye state (before a gathering there) may or may not be evidence of that. But it is something to watch in the coming days.  

...

On this date...

...in 2015, Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker officially entered the race for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination.

--

Recent posts:

Nevada GOP Primary/Caucus Lawsuit Shot Down in Carson City

Outside groups working against Trump

A different kind of non-endorsement in the Republican presidential race

Follow FHQ on Twitter, Instagram, Facebook, Mastodon and Post or subscribe by Email. Oh, and find us on Threads: @fhq.plus.

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Nevada GOP Primary/Caucus Lawsuit Shot Down in Carson City

Invisible Primary: Visible -- Thoughts on the invisible primary and links to the goings on of the moment as 2024 approaches...

First, over at FHQ Plus...

• Iowa Republicans signaled back in May that they were eyeing a January landing spot for their 2024 caucuses and that the decision was likely to be made at their July state central committee meeting. All of that came to pass this past weekend, but what do the decision and the timing say about the rest of the 2024 presidential primary calendar? All the details at FHQ Plus.

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In Invisible Primary: Visible today...

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The Nevada Independent has the latest on the Nevada Republican Party effort to end the newly established presidential primary in the Silver state:

"A Carson City judge has denied a motion by the Nevada Republican Party to block the state from holding a presidential primary election next year in favor of a caucus.

"Judge James Russell issued the ruling from the bench Monday, denying the state party’s lawsuit filed in May challenging a 2021 law moving the state away from a presidential caucus to a primary election."

And NVGOP Chair Michael McDonald indicated late Monday that the party is "prepared for a long fight." But the question continues to be why? The lawsuit and any prolonged legal battle over the primary are entirely unnecessary. 

Don't want the primary? Don't use it. [Nevada Republicans retain the right to opt out of the state-run presidential primary.]

Don't want a Republican primary at all? Don't have the candidates file for it. [The quickest and easiest route out of the primary and to the caucuses that the state party apparently wants is to encourage candidates who actually want delegates from the state to file for the party-run caucuses and not the primary. There will only be a Nevada Republican presidential primary if more than one candidate files with the state.]

The bigger news than the inevitable flop of the lawsuit in the Silver state is confirmation that the Nevada Republican Party intends to hold caucuses in 2024. The lawsuit suggested that that was the case, but the party never really came out and said that. They did over the weekend via their spokesperson in a CNN piece about the Iowa caucuses date. And Chair McDonald further confirmed that intention in his comments on Monday to The Nevada Independent:

McDonald added that the party still intends to hold a caucus in February to allocate the state’s presidential delegates, and is now seeking to avert a state-run primary election to avoid confusing voters and prevent a “huge waste of taxpayer money.”

The question is where on the calendar do these proposed Nevada Republican caucuses end up? Saturday, February 10 -- after the state-run primary -- is a likely destination. That would carve out a spot for the caucuses a little more than two weeks after the (still unsettled but increasingly likely) January 23 New Hampshire primary and two weeks before the South Carolina Republican primary. 

...

Yes, it was inevitable that Republicans would try to use the Democratic National Committee calendar changes against Democrats in Iowa and New Hampshire. The candidates have been quick to do that in the Granite state. And New Hampshire Democrats are fretting about what that portends for the general election. 

The concern? According to The Messenger, independent voters venturing over to the Republican primary and staying with the party in the fall.

The concern from some New Hampshire Democrats is that independent voters will participate in a more crowded and important GOP primary over the Democratic contest, then stick with the GOP in the general election.

“My biggest fear is that if they become invested in participating in the Republican primary, it's going to be much more difficult to pull them back over for the general election,” said Jim Demers, the state’s former House Democratic Whip. “That’s something we’ve never had to deal with before.”

But the thing is that most of the independents lean toward one party or the other and will behave that way in the general election regardless of the primary in which they opt to participate. However, might that matter if the pure independents opt for the competitive Republican primary in January next year and stick with the Republican nominee in November? It could if Biden dips below his seven point margin in New Hampshire from 2020 in 2024. 

Of course, New Hampshire Democrats have been making this argument since December. Here is what FHQ said then...

Furthermore, they argue that those same independents may stick with the GOP in a general election, potentially tipping the balance against Democrats in a narrowly divided state, and by extension, possibly costing the party Senate control and/or electoral votes.

All of that is true. Those things could happen. But it could also be that President Biden seeks reelection, ends up running largely unopposed, and New Hampshire independents flock to the competitive Republican presidential primary anyway. Is it a gamble for the president and the DNC to potentially irk a sliver to a lot of New Hampshire voters by coming down hard on the state Democratic Party for fighting to maintain its traditional position? It undoubtedly would be if it is not already. But are independents, Democratic-leaning or otherwise, going to vote for a Republican nominee in the Trump mold (or Trump himself) over Biden because of the primary? The answer is maybe (or if one is in New Hampshire, YES!). But that seems to be a gamble the president and those around him are willing to take in this fight. There are very few scenarios where New Hampshire's four electoral votes serve as the tipping point in the electoral college. It is possible although less probable than other, bigger states. And neither New Hampshire US Senate seat is up until 2026. Is that gamble worth it? Time will tell that tale.

The bottom line is that this New Hampshire thing is going to go on for a while with the DNC. And Republicans will try to use that against Democrats in the Granite state. But the battle is over a decreasingly small sliver of pure independents.

...

From around the invisible primary...

• More FEC data is going to become available this week, so it will be a good time to look at the money primary. Nikki Haley's numbers are in and her campaign (not counting affiliated groups) pulled in $7 million in the second quarter. [Trump had already reported a $35 million quarter and DeSantis $20 million.]
• Billionaire North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum will not have trouble raising money but he may have some issues getting on the debate stage next month. The donor threshold has the governor offering $20 gift cards in exchange for a one dollar donation. 
• In another campaign finance innovation (but one not necessarily aimed at debate entry), Vivek Ramaswamy is paying ten percent of donations that participants in Vivek's Kitchen Cabinet raise.
• Not surprisingly, it will be an eventful and event-filled summer in Iowa. 
• In the endorsement primary, Ron DeSantis picked up the first state senate endorsement in New Hampshire. Senator Regina Birdsell, who backed Marco Rubio in 2016, has lined up behind another Floridian for 2024.

...

On this date...

...in 2020, Louisiana held its twice-delayed presidential primary. Biden and Trump won in their respective contests.

--

Recent posts:

Outside groups working against Trump

A different kind of non-endorsement in the Republican presidential race

A mid-week Invisible Primary Roundup

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See more on our political/electoral consulting venture at FHQ Strategies. 

Outside groups working against Trump

Invisible Primary: Visible -- Thoughts on the invisible primary and links to the goings on of the moment as 2024 approaches...

First, over at FHQ Plus...

• 2023 is halfway over. Where does the 2024 presidential primary calendar stand at this point? Want an overly long status update on the calendar? All the details at FHQ Plus.

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In Invisible Primary: Visible today...

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Last week FHQ cited reporting that Americans for Prosperity, the political group intertwined with the Koch network, was knocking doors in New Hampshire. The group is presumably circulating the same literature in fellow early state South Carolina as well. That may or may not have been an expense as part of the $70 million the group has raised to spend against Donald Trump in the 2024 Republican presidential nomination race.

After all, nothing on that door hanger is particularly anti-Trump, but it does jibe with the initial steps the New York Times reports that AFP is taking in their process:

As they wait for the Republican field to winnow, top network officials are trying to pull off a difficult feat: changing who votes in Republican primaries. The network has a vast army of door-knockers, backed by tens of millions of dollars, who fan out across competitive states each election cycle to support candidates.

During these early months of the Republican presidential primaries, the network is dispatching these same activists to engage voters who are open to supporting somebody other than Mr. Trump. They are beginning a conversation with those voters, collecting data on them and raising doubts about Mr. Trump’s chances of winning a general election. They intend to return to these voters’ doors closer to the primaries to try to persuade them to vote for the network’s preferred candidate.

...

South Carolina Senator Tim Scott has made a new ad buy for Christian radio stations across Iowa. The $350,000 expenditure to air the ad, "Sanctity of Life," is meant to play up Scott's record of standing against abortion. 

Scott is competing in a crowded Republican field of 13 candidates including former President Donald Trump. The winner of past Iowa Caucuses gained the support of evangelicals, the largest voting bloc within the Republican base in Iowa. 

“Senator Tim Scott is a Christian conservative who believes that life is a gift from God. Scott has a 100 percent pro-life voting record, and he fought to put three new conservative justices on the Supreme Court, sending Roe v. Wade to the ash heap of history,” the ad’s narrator states. “As president, Tim Scott will protect our most fundamental right, the right to life itself.”

...

And Colorado has a new/old, totally unsurprising date for its presidential primary. Governor Polis and Secretary of State Griswold set the date of the contest for Super Tuesday March 5 next year in a press release on Thursday, June 29. Polis also placed the primary on Super Tuesday for the 2020 cycle as well, the first for the at-the-time newly reestablished presidential primary.

...

On this date...

...in 2015, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie entered the race for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination.

--

Recent posts:

A different kind of non-endorsement in the Republican presidential race

A mid-week Invisible Primary Roundup

DeSantis and Trump battle to influence state-level delegate rules for 2024

Follow FHQ on Twitter, Instagram, Facebook, Mastodon and Post or subscribe by Email.

See more on our political/electoral consulting venture at FHQ Strategies. 

One more quirk in the scheduling of the South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary

Invisible Primary: Visible -- Thoughts on the invisible primary and links to the goings on of the moment as 2024 approaches...

First, over at FHQ Plus...

• Republicans in the Virgin Islands have set forth an ambitious plan for 2024 delegate allocation and selection in the island territory. All the details at FHQ Plus.

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In Invisible Primary: Visible today...

...

One more thing on South Carolina Republicans setting the date of their 2024 presidential primary...

In revamping FHQ's 2024 presidential primary calendar after the decision out of the Palmetto state over the weekend, it dawned on me that the South Carolina Republican primary has really not "moved" all that far. In truth, it has not moved at all. The date was never set. But now, the primary is set for February 24, 2024. 

Where did FHQ have it tentatively placed way back in the initial iteration of the calendar that was released the day after Inauguration Day in 2021? 

February 24, 2024. 

This is not a boast. It is more a coincidence than anything else. In that time, in early 2021, before the Nevada legislature established the new presidential primary in the Silver state and scheduled it for the first Tuesday in February, the outlook on the 2024 calendar was fairly straightforward. It was going to look like 2016 and 2020: Iowa during the first week of February, New Hampshire's primary the following week and the South Carolina Republican primary the next weekend more than seven days after that. 

However, something was going to have to give in the long run in that scenario because FHQ also had the Nevada caucuses -- again, before the primary was established -- on the same February 24 date. Ultimately, two things gave. First, Nevada established the early February primary. But second South Carolina Republicans relented by apparently yielding their implied third position in the Republican order to Nevada Republicans (whether the party there opts into the state-run primary or not).

But it is funny how it has all worked out to this point. Nevada Republicans still have to settle their plans for 2024. 

...

From around the invisible primary...

• In the money primary, Ron DeSantis has been fundraising in California this week. Next week the Florida governor will do the same thing in Rockland County outside of New York. The $6600 per person dinner with DeSantis and major business leaders will be his second fundraiser of the day in the Empire state, following another event in Manhattan.
• Axios Detroit does their version of the hybrid Michigan primary-caucus system helps Trump story. To be clear, it is not so much the format that helps Trump as the make up of the Michigan Republican Party that may benefit the former president. This can be a kind of chicken or the egg argument, but if the party were tilted toward another candidate and/or if the grassroots were energized and aligned with another candidate, then the format would help them. The big thing about the change is that it erects institutional hurdles that will make it hard for candidates not named Trump or DeSantis to effectively compete in the Great Lakes state. They are the two with the best combination of name recognition, financial resources and organization to make it work in Michigan under the proposed hybrid rules. ...at this time. That picture could change.
• A local, North Dakota-centered look at how folks nationally are reacting to Governor Doug Burgum's bid for the Republican presidential nomination. 
• In the travel primary, both Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis will be in New Hampshire next Tuesday, June 27. Trump to keynote a New Hampshire Federation of Republican Women luncheon in Concord and DeSantis for a town hall meeting in Hollis. 
• Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie's anti-Trump run at the Republican nomination is not without some heavy hitters in the political donor game. There was some early reporting that Mets owner and hedge fund founder Steve Cohen was also financially backing Christie's bid through a super PAC. Cohen remains on the periphery of the Republican race for now. 

...

On this date...

...in 2011, former Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman joined the race for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination. 

--

Recent posts:

Are Iowa and New Hampshire likely to face RNC penalties?

South Carolina's move greatly reduces uncertainty on the 2024 presidential primary calendar

Sunday Series: What exactly are Nevada Republicans up to on delegate rules for 2024?

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See more on our political/electoral consulting venture at FHQ Strategies. 

Tim Scott is making it tough for others in South Carolina

Invisible Primary: Visible -- Thoughts on the invisible primary and links to the goings on of the moment as 2024 approaches...

First, over at FHQ Plus...

• The Idaho Republican Party has been in a bit of a pickle since legislation unintentionally eliminated the presidential primary in the Gem state earlier this year. Later this month, the state party will choose from a pair of interesting alternatives to the primary for 2024. All the details at FHQ Plus.

If you haven't checked out FHQ Plus yet, then what are you waiting for? Subscribe below for free and consider a paid subscription to support FHQ's work and unlock the full site.

In Invisible Primary: Visible today...

...

Just yesterday FHQ responded to a report that some in the DeSantis orbit have been complaining about the two South Carolinians in the race for the Republican presidential nomination. But perhaps DeSantis world is not -- or should not be -- alone in the griping. It was already going to be a little cramped to have two South Carolina heavyweights involved in the contest, but Senator Tim Scott is not just making things difficult for the Florida governor. His recent and robust endorsement list from the Palmetto state and subsequent show of donor strength in South Carolina is only going to raise eyebrows in the contest-within-a-contest between Scott and former Governor Nikki Haley. 

In the zero-sum game that the invisible primary can sometimes be, Scott is seemingly inching ahead of Haley in some important metrics within South Carolina. That is taking endorsements and potentially South Carolina donors away from every other candidate. But it arguably stands to hurt Haley and DeSantis the most. It will potentially force Haley deeper into Iowa-or-bust mode and could help to crowd Team DeSantis out of the Palmetto state if Donald Trump continues to fly high there. 

[No, the DeSantis campaign is not going to completely abandon South Carolina. But the overall effort could refocus its resources elsewhere, deemphasizing the first-in-the-South primary if Scott continues to build out his forces there.]

...

Harry Enten is good over at CNN discussing Chris Christie's odds in the Republican presidential nomination race. Enten ends up in a place similar to where FHQ was last week in talking about the Republican primary debate qualification rules. It is not so much about where Christie is now. It is about where Trump and DeSantis are combined at this moment in the invisible primary. Both are gobbling up most of the support. That is a different environment for long shot candidates, an environment that has not been conducive to dark horse success in the past.

...

A day after the Rhode Island House unanimously passed SB 1010, the state Senate followed suit on Tuesday, June 13, concurring by a 37-0 vote on HB 6309. That is the House version of the same legislation to shift the presidential primary in the Ocean state up to April 2 for the 2024 cycle alone. As was the case on the House side with the concurrence on the Senate version, the lower chamber took up the Senate's measure as part of a 44 bill/appointment consent calendar. The primary bill was not considered by itself, but rather passed on one vote as part of the larger package.

Both primary bills now head to Governor Dan McKee (D) for his consideration. 

...

From around the invisible primary...

• In the endorsement primary, North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum picked up the endorsement of former North Dakota governor and current Senator John Hoeven on Tuesday. All of the US senators from the Dakotas are now off the board. South Dakota's Rounds and Thune are behind South Carolina Senator Tim Scott's bid and now North Dakota's Hoeven and Cramer have backed Burgum.
• Oklahoma Senator James Lankford indicated that he intends to stay on the sidelines of the Republican presidential nomination race. Count Lankford among the pool of non-endorsements in the Republican invisible primary.
• In the money primary, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley is on swing through California raising funds ahead of the end of the quarter at the close of June. 
• Over in the staff primary, Haley continues to fill out her Iowa team, naming Bill Mackey (Rep. Zach Nunn's former campaign manager) her director in the Hawkeye state. The former South Carolina governor also added state Sen. Chris Cournoyer and Rep. Austin Harris to her leadership team. Count those two as state legislative endorsements.

...

On this date...

...in 1976, Idaho Senator Frank Church ended his campaign for the Democratic nomination, throwing his support behind presumptive nominee, Jimmy Carter, and urging his delegates to do the same. 

...in 1988, Vice President George H.W. Bush won the North Dakota primary, the last contest on the calendar for the cycle. On the Democratic side, Massachusetts Governor Michael Dukakis claimed victory in the beauty contest primary in the Peace Garden state. North Dakota Democrats had allocated and selected delegates through an earlier caucus process.

...in 2016, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton took the primary in the District of Columbia to close out primary season.

--

Recent posts:

Are the Two South Carolinians Hurting DeSantis in the Palmetto State?

An Invisible Primary Round Up to Start the Week

Sunday Series: About that Unique Michigan Republican Primary-Caucus Plan (Part One)

Follow FHQ on Twitter, Instagram, Facebook, Mastodon and Post or subscribe by Email.

See more on our political/electoral consulting venture at FHQ Strategies. 

An Invisible Primary Round Up to Start the Week

Invisible Primary: Visible -- Thoughts on the invisible primary and links to the goings on of the moment as 2024 approaches...

First, over at FHQ Plus...

• Late last week, Michigan Republicans released details of a plan to use both the February 27 presidential primary and March 2 congressional district caucuses to allocate delegates to the national convention next year. All the in-the-weeds details of the plan at FHQ Plus.

If you haven't checked out FHQ Plus yet, then what are you waiting for? Subscribe below for free and consider a paid subscription to support FHQ's work and unlock the full site.

In Invisible Primary: Visible today...

...

In the money primary, the Des Moines Register has a nice rundown of outside spending in first-in-the-nation Iowa so far in 2023. The Trump-affiliated Make America Great Again, Inc. super PAC has spent more than $20 million in the Hawkeye state, most of it on television ads against Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. But that $20 million total is nearly five times more spending than all of the other candidate affiliated groups combined. 

A few things that all of this signals...

1) The candidates, their campaigns and affiliated groups continue to behave as if Iowa will, in fact, have the first contest on the 2024 presidential primary calendar (despite all of the recent calendar drama).

2) There is a certain inefficiency to all of that spending. Yes, all of those dollars are being shelled out in a state that will have, if not the first contest, then a very early one. [Iowa will very likely end up first.] The spending is useful in that sense. However, that is a lot of money spent to mobilize voters for a caucus in a state that is unlikely to be competitive in the fall campaign. 

The Democrats have changed the calculus on this, but have their own inefficiencies built into the primary calendar on their side. The handpicked new leadoff state, South Carolina, is no more competitive for Democrats than Iowa is in the general election, and there is the potential negative impact of shunting New Hampshire to a later slot. But the Democratic calendar will feature a new primary in Nevada and a newly early primary in Michigan during the early calendar in 2024, two likely battlegrounds for the fall. Granted, Democrats do not appear to have competitive nomination phase ahead of them and that is its own built-in, institutional inefficiency with respect to mobilizing/energizing voters during the primary phase of the campaign. But the notion of there being inefficiencies like this at all is a byproduct of the work the DNC did to revamp the calendar for 2024. 

Still, interesting figures out of Iowa.

...

In the endorsement primary, it was a busy weekend.

• Former President Donald Trump picked up the support of a couple of Georgia congresspeople, Rep. Andrew Clyde and Rep. Mike Collins. Both endorsed Trump, timed along side the former president's trip to address the state convention of Peach state Republicans in Columbus over the weekend.
• Oklahoma Governor Kevin Stitt became the first fellow governor to line up behind Ron DeSants's bid while the Florida governor was in the Sooner state for an event in Tulsa this past weekend. 
• In what might be considered an intra-state battle in South Carolina, Senator Tim Scott rolled out endorsements from 29 state lawmakers, including the state Senate Majority Leader Shane Massey, and dozens of other current and former elected officials from across the Palmetto state (more than 140 in all). It is difficult not to view those endorsements as a sort of zero-sum game between Scott and former Governor Nikki Haley. Trump already claims high profile endorsements in South Carolina from Governor McMaster and Senator Graham, so the battle for endorsements in the first-in-the-South state is for other officeholders. Thus far, Scott is outpacing his fellow Sandlapper in the count at home.
• North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum did not have to go far to gain his first big endorsement. From right in his Roughrider state backyard, Senator Kevin Cramer endorsed the governor on Monday.

...

Miami Mayor Francis Suarez hometown paper reports that a major announcement is coming from the mayor during his upcoming trip to the Reagan Library later this week. FHQ has not said much about the mayor but he has been talking about a presidential run for a while.

...

On this date...

...in 1999, Texas Governor George W. Bush officially entered the race for the 2000 Republican presidential nomination. 

...in 2008, Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX) ended his bid for the 2008 Republican presidential nomination, but transferred the money left over from his campaign to start the advocacy group, The Campaign for Liberty.

--

Recent posts:

Sunday Series: About that Unique Michigan Republican Primary-Caucus Plan (Part One)

[From FHQ Plus] Folks, the new caucus law in Iowa does not affect state Democrats' plans for 2024

Legislative Inaction Struck a Blow Against a Primary Move in Connecticut, but the effort may not be dead

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See more on our political/electoral consulting venture at FHQ Strategies. 

DeSantis is not without Organizational Strengths in the Republican Nomination Race, part two

Invisible Primary: Visible -- Thoughts on the invisible primary and links to the goings on of the moment as 2024 approaches...

First, over at FHQ Plus...

• This week we have explored Delaware potentially being on the move on the primary calendar, taken a truer measure of the crucial spot into which the Trump trial in Manhattan is on the Republican primary calendar and the contingency plans Idaho Democrats are making (but hoping against). All the details at FHQ Plus.

If you haven't checked out FHQ Plus yet, then what are you waiting for? Subscribe below for free and consider a paid subscription to support FHQ's work and unlock the full site.

In Invisible Primary: Visible today...

...

Early last week FHQ discussed the organizational strengths the still-nascent DeSantis campaign had through the lens of endorsements. And that is not the only area where the now-announced candidate DeSantis is excelling relative to those who are vying to be the main alternative to former President Trump.  The Florida governor shrugged off the technically glitchy launch and reeled in $8.2 million in the first 24 hours after his formal announcement. This adds to the total DeSantis coffers (across the formal campaign and affiliated groups) that are already busting at the seams. 

This is an effort behind DeSantis that is well-funded in the money primary, staffed with folks who know how to organize for a delegate battle and that is building institutional support within the broader party network. It is a campaign that is built to run through Super Tuesday (at the very least). Now, building to get to that point and actually doing it are two separate matters. But the pieces are in place for DeSantis to stick around for a while.

And not that DeSantis was not already doing the sorts of things that presidential candidates do, but he has an upcoming swing next week through the states with the first three contests on the 2024 Republican presidential primary calendar.

...

Invisible Primary quick hits:

• In the staff primary, Tim Scott is filling out his South Carolina team. He added another couple of campaign hands from First Tuesday Strategies with Palmetto state roots, hiring both Luke Byars (2012 Romney, 1996 Dole/Kemp) as general counsel and Philip Habib as state director. Drea Byars was brought on as national finance adviser and Sarah Jane Walker from the state Republican Party as operations director in the state.
• North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum continues inching toward a bid, envisioning "a path for himself by focusing less on culture war grievances and more on the economy, energy policy and national security."
• In the travel primary, former Vice President Mike Pence is laying the groundwork for campaign in Iowa that makes the Hawkeye state and the caucuses there its central focus.
• And there is more from on the ground in Iowa about Nikki Haley leaning on retail politics to set her apart from the rest of the growing field of Republican candidates.

...

It is hard not to get the sense that the fixation on Glenn Youngkin 2024 is stuck in this weird feedback loop. 

• Donors looking for a viable Trump alternative keep approaching Youngkin about running. 
• Youngkin reaches out to other donors about securing the requisite funding for such a run. 
• Media reports on the entreaties from both sides.
• Repeat.

Forget mixed signals. All of this continues despite the fact that Youngkin would not officially jump into the race until after the November state legislative races in Virginia. You know, less than two months before voting likely starts in Iowa. Never mind that Youngkin 2024 would have to launch before November on ballot access grounds alone. Plus there appears to be a certain collective amnesia about the whole thing. It may or may not be on the tail end, but there is still an entertaining of the idea that Ron DeSantis may have waited too long to get into the 2024 race. If late May is too long, then November would be way too long. That may have been lost in the feedback loop. 

This talk is likely to continue as the uncertainty surrounding Donald Trump and the impact of his legal troubles has on the race ebbs and flows and whether or if DeSantis rebounds any. 

...

On this date...

...in 1980, George H.W. Bush withdraws as former California Governor Ronal Reagan crosses the delegate threshold to clinch the 1980 Republican presidential nomination. [Fun fact (and marker of just how much the world has changed): Bush informed Reagan of his decision to leave the race via telegram.]

...in 1992, President George H.W Bush and Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton both swept primaries in Arkansas, Idaho and Kentucky. The Democratic primary in the Gem state was a beauty contest. Idaho Democrats gathered in March 3 caucuses, giving Iowa Senator Tom Harkin a narrow victory.

...in 2016, Donald Trump surpassed the 1237 delegates necessary to claim the 2016 Republican presidential nomination.

--

Recent posts:

An Exercise in Early State Delegate Allocation

DeSantis starts as the clearest Trump alternative, but is a repeat of 2016 inevitable?

Youngkin 2024 is a Byproduct of Uncertainty

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See more on our political/electoral consulting venture at FHQ Strategies. 

DeSantis starts as the clearest Trump alternative, but is a repeat of 2016 inevitable?

Invisible Primary: Visible -- Thoughts on the invisible primary and links to the goings on of the moment as 2024 approaches...

First, over at FHQ Plus...

• Look, this Trump trial is going to be a big deal in the middle of primary season next year. But where it lands on the calendar and how the calendar is very likely to settle make the combination potentially quite disruptive. All the details at FHQ Plus.

If you haven't checked out FHQ Plus yet, then what are you waiting for? Subscribe below for free and consider a paid subscription to support FHQ's work and unlock the full site.

In Invisible Primary: Visible today...

...

The one common theme in many of the send ups of Ron DeSantis on launch day for his presidential campaign is that the Florida governor is well enough positioned to challenge former President Donald Trump for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, but neither have been strong enough to ward off the entry of other candidates with the conventional qualities of formidable, if not successful, past presidential aspirants. The thought goes -- and there is evidence to back it up -- that those other candidates in or on the verge of being in the race are focused more in recent days on challenging for the mantle of the Trump alternative than they are on actually directly taking on the former president. 

None of this is news. DeSantis has been taking incoming fire in recent weeks from not only the Trump campaign but the other candidates seeking to break out of the single digits in public opinion polling of the race. Understandably, that also conjures up memories of the 2016 Republican presidential nomination contest. But even with the presence of that echo of 2016, DeSantis enters a race for the 2024 nomination with far different dynamics. 

And those differing dynamics center on the former president and not Governor DeSantis. First of all, as the political world was reminded again yesterday, Trump faces criminal charges that he is set to go on trial for at a crucial point on the 2024 presidential primary calendar. That will add an element of uncertainty to the progression of primary season unprecedented in the post-reform era (much less any era of American history). But, by virtue of being a former president (among other things), Trump is also in a far better position in 2023 than he was in 2015. Notably, throughout the competitive portion of the 2016 process, Trump only approached (but did not attain) majority support in the national polls after big victories in the cluster of primaries in the mid-Atlantic and northeast in late April, right before the last of the remaining competition withdrew from the race. 

Look, FHQ does not want to harp on national polls too much, especially seven months before any votes are set to be cast. But Trump has basically been in the same position in the national polls that he was in at the height of his 2016 support all along during the 2024 invisible primary. And in the last month, the former president has crested above majority support. Yes, all of the usual caveats apply. It is May before a presidential election year. Things may change. Additionally, state polls may offer a better idea of where the candidates stand relative to one another in a sequential (not national) contest.

Still, Trump has been and is in a position to claim a lot of delegates under the rules that will govern the 2024 process. And delegates are the currency of a nomination race. His position in 2023 is consistent with or above his best in 2016. Yes, there will be winner-take-all contests that will allow a plurality winner to be awarded all of the delegates in some (but not all) primaries and caucuses after March 15 just like in 2016. But that distinction matters little if Trump is winning a majority of support in those contests. Even if Trump trails off from his current pace and drops below majority support, it may not change the fact that DeSantis is the only candidate to this point who is even flirting with the delegate qualifying threshold in most states (20 percent) with contests before March 15. And in recent days DeSantis has dipped below that mark. 

The point is that the candidate dynamics of 2023 may resemble those of 2015-16 on the Republican side, but they may meet a different set of preferences among the electorate (at least according to polls at this point) and will intersect with a more frontrunner-favorable set of delegate allocation rules in 2024. Neither of those are a repeat of 2016. The end result may be. Trump may end up the 2024 Republican nominee, but there may be similarities and differences in how the process gets to that point relative to 2016.

...

In the endorsement primary, DeSantis nabbed another congressional backer, Rep. Rich McCormick (R-GA, 6th). Team DeSantis also lined up the support of over 100 former Trump administration officials. The executive branch is huge, but this is no small show of support, especially when the president they all worked for is running for the same position again.

...

A handful of quick hits:

• The Georgia Republican state convention next month has drawn in at least three presidential candidates, Trump, Asa Hutchinson and Vivek Ramaswamy. Bear in mind that this may be a setting in which 2024 delegate allocation rules are at stake. And because of the new earlier primary, Peach state Republicans will have to have a different allocation plan for 2024 than they used in 2020.
• Speaking of Hutchinson, the travel primary saw the former Arkansas governor was in South Carolina on Tuesday pitching optimism and unity. Palmetto state Republicans could be forgiven if they thought those themes echoed another more local candidate vying for the Republican nomination.
• Nikki Haley is counting on retail politics in Iowa. [She will not be alone.]
• Fellow South Carolinian, Tim Scott, is off to a reasonable start, post-launch. The first ad in that big ad buy is airing and he amassed $2 million in donations in the money primary in the first 24 hours after he announced.
• The things that make Governor Chris Sununu popular in New Hampshire may not translate well to a run for the White House, even among Republicans in his home state. 

...

On this date...

...in 1984, two days after winning a beauty contest primary in the Gem state, Colorado Senator Gary Hart won the Idaho Democratic caucuses, where delegates were allocated.

...in 1988, Vice President George H.W. Bush claimed victory in the Idaho primary.

...in 2016, Donald Trump won the primary in Washington state.

--

Recent posts:

Youngkin 2024 is a Byproduct of Uncertainty

Tim Scott Enters the Race

Sunday Series: Biden, Incumbent Presidents and Setting the Rules of Renomination

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See more on our political/electoral consulting venture at FHQ Strategies. 

Invisible Primary: Visible -- Biden's In

Thoughts on the invisible primary and links to the goings on of the moment as 2024 approaches...

President Biden formally joined the 2024 race for the White House in a video released early Tuesday morning, April 25. It is a bid for renomination that will not go unchallenged, but is more likely than not to move ahead despite some reservations within the rank and file of the party. The polling numbers are not great, but whether this announcement and resultant campaigning in the near term begins to consolidate Democratic support ahead of 2024 remains to be seen. However, that coupled with the fact that no serious challengers are lurking in the wings, champing at the bit to attempt to push Biden to the periphery, would have the effect of exhausting any pining for an alternative if not quell some of the dissension in the ranks.

Still, this is a reelection effort that faces some unique challenges. Questions about the president's age are not going to go anywhere, again, the approval numbers are not the best and the economy has been resilient, but is on less than rock-solid footing. Those are the things that will matter as 2023 wears on and gives way to 2024. 

On the staff primary side, Reuters has a nice look at the team that is and might be around the president as the reelection effort gets off the ground.

Fox News wonders why there will not be any Democratic presidential primary debates. [Two things: 1) FHQ is hard-pressed to remember the last time an incumbent president's party had primary debates. 2) The Reuters piece above mentioned Ron Klain doing (general election) debate prep and that only made FHQ wonder about whether there will be general election debates.]

...

Seth Masket was in Iowa for the Faith and Freedom Coalition gathering this past weekend. He has some thoughts on the event up at Tusk.

...

In the endorsement primary, Trump started the week with a couple of significant gets. Failed New York gubernatorial candidate and former congressman Lee Zeldin lined up behind the former president and Montana Senator -- and 2024 NRSC chair -- Steve Daines also threw his support behind Trump. The contrast is stark as the Trump campaign continues this drip, drip, drip of endorsement announcements while the competition, well, is not following suit. Not to the same degree or at the same level anyway.

...

Maybe, maybe not. The Washington Examiner looks at the money primary and the fundraising behind the prospective DeSantis presidential run, but The New York Times has two of the big spenders mentioned -- Ken Griffin and Robert Bigelow -- surveying the field amidst this recent DeSantis swoon. 

...

Over at FHQ Plus...

• It was a wild kickoff to the work week. One state has a new primary date and another saw its effort to resurrect its now-defunct presidential primary suffer a setback. All at FHQ Plus.

If you haven't checked out FHQ Plus yet, then what are you waiting for? Subscribe below for free and consider a paid subscription to support FHQ's work.

...

On this date...

...in 1972, the results in the Massachusetts and Pennsylvania primaries were split in the Democratic nomination race. South Dakota Sen. George McGovern won in the Bay state while former Vice President and 1968 nominee Hubert Humphrey took the most delegates in the Keystone state.

...in 1984, Democrats caucused in Utah. 

...in 1988, four years later Utah Democrats were at it again. Massachusetts Governor Michael Dukakis won in the Beehive state going away. 

...in 2019, former Vice President Joe Biden announced his intentions to seek the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination.

--

Recent posts:

Invisible Primary: Visible -- For 2024, a Frankenstein's monster of 2015 parts 

Sunday Series: Ranked Choice Voting in 2024 Presidential Primaries, Updated (April 2023)

From FHQ Plus: Calendar Foreshadowing in New York

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See more on our political/electoral consulting venture at FHQ Strategies.