Showing posts with label Tim Scott. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Tim Scott. Show all posts

Monday, May 22, 2023

Tim Scott Enters the Race

Invisible Primary: Visible -- Thoughts on the invisible primary and links to the goings on of the moment as 2024 approaches...

First, over at FHQ Plus...
  • There is something of a time crunch for the two parties in Iowa to schedule the 2024 caucuses, but much of it seems self-imposed. There is a time they want to have that completed by and a point they have to have that set. Plus an additional note on Trump and 2024 delegate allocation rules. All the details at FHQ Plus.
If you haven't checked out FHQ Plus yet, then what are you waiting for? Subscribe below for free and consider a paid subscription to support FHQ's work and unlock the full site.


In Invisible Primary: Visible today...
...
After filing with the Federal Election Commission on Friday, South Carolina Senator Tim Scott is set to officially announce his candidacy for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination on Monday, May 22. The move comes a little more than a month since the junior senator from the Palmetto state launched an exploratory committee. 

Scott is the first to strike in a week that seemingly promises at least one more similar announcement, but Scott's entry also comes at an interesting time. Donald Trump still enjoys a comfortable lead in the endorsement primary among Senate Republicans. However, the upper chamber in the US Congress is increasingly looking as if it may be a flashpoint of sorts in this Republican nomination race. And that may or may not be because of Tim Scott. Scott will enter the race with two Senate endorsements, both from South Dakota colleagues. Mike Rounds, FHQ has talked about, but Scott also scored the important endorsement of Senate Minority Whip John Thune over the weekend. And there is said to be a reservoir of support for Scott among those he works with most closely. 

Moreover, Republican senators not aligned with Trump have been increasingly outspoken in recent weeks. First, Indiana Senator Todd Young unendorsed Trump. Then another member of the Senate Republican leadership, Senator John Cornyn last week noted that Trump cannot win a general election. And Louisiana Senator Bill Cassidy followed suit over the weekend. Neither Cornyn nor Cassidy went quite as far as Young did in their comments, but they come at a time that gives Scott some cover as he announces his bid. No, none of it is explicitly pro-Scott, but it is anti-Trump enough, via an electability argument. 

And together it all offers an interesting set of signals from among a group of the most high-profile possible gets in the endorsement primary.


...
South Carolina Republicans convened over the weekend and narrowly re-elected Chair Drew McKissick. With both Tim Scott and Nikki Haley on hand and Donald Trump addressing the delegates in a video, McKissick turned back a challenge from Jeff Davis, head of a Trump-loyalist group in the Upstate of South Carolina. This was not a convention where 2024 delegate rules were on the table -- the winner-take-all by congressional district system is not one South Carolina Republicans are going to mess with -- but it was a demonstration of another state Republican Party battling on pragmatism versus purism grounds, something that has flared up in other states as 2024 approaches. That may not have implications for delegate allocation rules in South Carolina, but it bears watching elsewhere as the rules increasingly get nailed down. 


...
Harry Enten has another good one up about the comeback path DeSantis may take to the Republican nomination. He draws a parallel between where DeSantis is in the polls now to where both Barack Obama and John McCain were in 2007. Both obviously went on to win their respective nominations in 2008, but both needed early wins to help propel them in that direction. Of course, DeSantis' main competition, Donald Trump, is probably closer to where Hillary Clinton was in 2015 than to where she was when she was the poll leader -- ahead of Obama -- in 2007. And that matters as well. 


...
In a further fleshing out of an ongoing story, Tom Beaumont describes the tough work ahead for DeSantis-aligned super PAC, Never Back Down, in attempting to flex organizational muscle. Again, that effort is a kind of Frankenstein's monster, combining the grassroots strength and knowhow of the 2016 Cruz campaign with the similar try at organizing through a super PAC that the Jeb Bush campaign pushed in the same cycle. 



...
On this date...
...in 2012,  former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney swept primaries in Arkansas and Kentucky.

...in 2020, the voting in the all-mail Hawaii Democratic party-run primary concluded.



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Friday, May 12, 2023

Endorsements, Non-Endorsements, Unendorsements and Pre-Endorsements

Invisible Primary: Visible -- Thoughts on the invisible primary and links to the goings on of the moment as 2024 approaches...

First, over at FHQ Plus...
  • California Republicans have a problem with their allocation rules (and it may cost them delegates next year), Missouri legislators snatched defeat from the jaws of victory on the presidential primary bill in the Show-Me state and more. All the details at FHQ Plus.
If you haven't checked out FHQ Plus yet, then what are you waiting for? Subscribe below for free and consider a paid subscription to support FHQ's work and unlock the full site.


In Invisible Primary: Visible today...
...
For an established politician, Donald Trump is almost uniquely adept at having it both ways. No, not on everything, but as a rare defeated former president to return for a third try at a nomination in the post-reform era, it would be easy, if not natural, to assume such a candidate would be considered "the establishment." And in many ways the former president is just that, the establishment. After all, at the moment he has a commanding lead in the current 2024 polling, does not lack for resources and has so far lapped the field in endorsements, both in quantity and quality. 

Still, this is not 2019 when the Republican Party was in lockstep behind the president as he set out to defend the White House. Republicans responding to surveys are looking around at and supporting alternatives and big money donors within the Republican Party network are doing the same. And while Trump has high-profile endorsements, elites and elected officials are not all with the president. So, on the one hand, Trump can both demonstrate that he is the establishment of a sort, but also that there are potential cracks in the armor, that this is not 2019. He can lay claim to endorsements from, for example, one fifth of the Republican caucus in the Senate, but that also means that the remaining 80 percent are not yet on board. 

And that is an important distinction at this point in the 2024 invisible primary. Trump can suggest that he is the establishment -- that he is inevitable -- but at the same time run against a party that is not behind him in the same way that it was in 2019-20. That is a valuable mixed signal to be able to send to Republican primary voters and it has an impact on those elites and elected officials who are not yet aligned with the former president (or anyone else). 

The result is this melange of endorsements, non-endorsements, unendorsements and pre-endorsements. Trump's endorsements are clear enough. But Sen. Todd Young (R-IN) became an early unendorsement of the former president on Thursday, May 11. Young did not jump to one of the Trump alternatives. Instead, he just made clear he was not behind Trump for 2024. And Sen. Mike Rounds (R-SC) hinted at reservoir of support in the Senate for Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC). No, it was not a pre-endorsement, per se, but that story also is not new. Rounds was very careful with his wording, saying that "[a] lot of us that are holding back on looking at anybody else until Tim makes up his mind." But it was suggestive of a potential change when and if the junior South Carolina senator enters the race. 

However, that says a lot. The careful wording, the praise but non-endorsement. Trump may have the bulk of the high-profile endorsements at this time, but he does not have all of them. Most are still sitting on the sidelines. And the question moving forward is whether they stay that way. Given Trump's current position in the race and standing as a former president, 2024 is less likely to be a situation like 2016 when a number of Republican elites did not throw their support behind any candidate until after the primaries or caucuses in their states. The pressures and incentives will be different. Trump can make the inevitability case, but can also publicly other those who may dissent by opting for other candidates. And as long as it stays like that, Trump can straddle the line, boasting to be an establishment of his own while simultaneously running against the "other" Republican establishment who opposes him. 

But how long can that persist? Just as the burgeoning field of 2024 candidates could not be frozen forever, neither likely can endorsements, well, non-endorsements. 


...
Elsewhere in the endorsement primary. Ahead of his trip to first-in-the-nation Iowa this weekend (travel primary), Florida Governor Ron DeSantis reeled in a pair of important state legislative endorsements from the Hawkeye state. Both Senate President Amy Sinclair and Iowa House Majority Leader Matt Windschitl threw their support behind the nascent DeSantis presidential effort. 


...
And in the staff primary. Bloomberg's Christian Hall has the latest on Tim Scott's efforts: 
The Republican senator from South Carolina has tapped Targeted Victory, a consultancy, to aid the campaign’s fundraising, and brought on board three advisers: Jon Downs, Trent Wisecup and Annie Kelly Kuhle from FP1 Strategies. That firm will serve as the campaign’s political advertising firm, the person familiar said.


...
On this date...
...in 1988, President Ronald Reagan endorsed Vice President George H.W. Bush for president a few weeks after Bush had secured enough delegates to clinch the nomination (and when it was apparent that all other candidates were out).

...in 1992, President Bush and Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton handily won primaries in Nebraska and West Virginia.

...in 2020, former Vice President Joe Biden won the Nebraska primary on his way to the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination.



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Wednesday, May 3, 2023

Iowa Democratic Draft Delegate Selection Plan Points Toward Changes Ahead

Thoughts on the invisible primary and links to the goings on of the moment as 2024 approaches...

First, over at FHQ Plus...
  • Today is deadline day for state parties to submit draft delegate selection plans to the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee. An update on where that process stands. Also, the Hawaii bid to establish a presidential primary appears to have taken another hit. All the details at FHQ Plus.
If you haven't checked out FHQ Plus yet, then what are you waiting for? Subscribe below for free and consider a paid subscription to support FHQ's work and unlock the full site.


In Invisible Primary: Visible today...
...
Iowa Democrats (IDP) got a draft in just under the wire. As noted above, it is deadline day for draft delegate selection plans to be submitted to the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee and the 2024 draft plan is now publicly available from Hawkeye state Democrats. Importantly, IDP indicates that it will conduct caucuses on the same day as Iowa Republicans next year. That fact, alongside the caucus bill that is working its way through the state legislature, would appear to indicate that Democrats in Iowa are prepared to defy DNC rules.

But as FHQ noted yesterday, there seems to be a fundamental misreading of that legislation and how it interacts with the proposed plans for Democratic delegate selection in the state in 2024. Here is the operative section from the draft plan on the proposed scheduling of the delegate selection process in Iowa:
The Iowa Caucuses shall consist of an expression of presidential preference, conducted by mail, AND in-person precinct caucuses. The precinct caucuses will be held in accordance with Iowa Code (ICO 43.4) at least eight days prior to any other state’s presidential nominating contest, on the same date as the Republican Caucuses. The purpose of the precinct caucuses will be to elect unbound delegates to county conventions, elect precinct committee persons, and move platform resolutions to the county convention. No expression of presidential preference will be tabulated at the precinct caucuses. The period for expression of presidential preference by mail will begin and end on dates included in the Iowa Democratic Party Chair’s call to caucus, which shall be issued no later than 90 days prior to the Caucuses.
So what does that suggest? A few things:
  1. The caucuses will coincide with the Republican delegate selection process. That is still likely to be in January 2024.
  2. Note that there is no mention of any "first determining step," the language the DNC uses for when votes are cast to determine delegate allocation.
  3. In fact, that section goes to great lengths to bifurcate the delegate selection and allocation processes. Unbound delegates will be chosen at the likely January precinct caucuses. [Binding is Republican Party language, but FHQ digresses.] No attempt is being made at the precinct caucuses to select delegates pledged to any particular presidential candidate. [There will not, at least under this draft plan, be any slating of delegates before the preference vote.]
  4. The allocation process will be based on the vote-by-mail presidential preference vote, the dates of which are unspecified, and left to remain that way until a caucus call is issued by the Iowa Democratic Party no later than roughly three months before the caucuses (late summer/early fall 2023). That is a tell of sorts. On some level, that issuance of a call rider to the section above allows Iowa Democrats to kick the can down the road a bit on this matter and continue to potentially lobby the DNCRBC for a spot in the early window (should some other previously selected early state fail to comply). And barring that, it simply buys the state party time to figure all of this out (on its own or in conjunction with the DNCRBC).
  5. Look, Iowa Democrats may call this a caucus, but it is not. More than ever before the 2024 plan resembles the Democratic delegate selection/allocation process in most other states. There is, on the one hand, a process, usually a state-run primary, for voters to express presidential preference. The allocation is based on that. And on the other, there is a caucus process designed to actually select the human beings/delegates who will fill those allocated slots. The preference vote Iowa Democrats describe above is a primary. It is a party-run primary by any other name, and allocation will be based on that. Delegate selection will continue to run through the caucus process. Only now, that will potentially begin before the preference vote. That, in and of itself, is not necessarily unusual. 
Now, flashback to that caucus bill in the legislature. Folks, it got amended before being passed by the state House earlier this week. And the new provisions fit well with the bifurcated process Iowa Democrats detail in their draft delegate selection plan. Many raced to the conclusion that the in-person caucusing component doomed Iowa Democrats' plan. It does not. What the amended bill does do is the same thing that the draft delegate selection plan does: it makes a point to separate out the allocation and selection processes. And that is a big change in Iowa.

In the meantime, recall that this is a draft plan. It will go before the DNCRBC for review and together both sides will hammer out something that works under the new DNC guidelines for 2024. 

...or Iowa Democrats will face penalties. But the plan above makes it more likely that Iowa Democrats will be able to comply.


...
Senator Tim Scott (R-SC) looks like he will make a splash in the staff primary by hiring the first woman of color to run a Republican presidential nomination campaign. Jennifer DeCasper may not register as a seasoned hand at the presidential campaign level -- there is no defection here, for instance -- but her hiring carries a certain symbolism to it. 


...
I don't know, but it seems like maybe Politico is late to this story. Those who have been reading Invisible Primary: Visible this year will know that Trump 2023 is closer to Trump 2019 than Trump 2015 by most measures. And part of that is campaign discipline, something endorsements have continued to show. 


...
On this date...
...in 1976, former Georgia Governor Jimmy Carter won the Democratic caucuses in Colorado. 

...in 1980, the Texas primary saw frontrunners win on both sides; former California Governor Ronald Reagan on the Republican side and President Carter in the Democratic contest. But that was back when Texas Democrats were using the Texas Two-Step system with delegates allocated in caucuses the same day as the primary.

...in 1988, Vice President Bush swept Republican primaries in Indiana, Ohio and Washington, DC while Jesse Jackson's win in the nation's capital kept Massachusetts Governor Michael Dukakis from winning all three contests in the Democratic nomination race. 

...in 2003, Democrats held their first presidential primary debate of the 2004 cycle. In a mark of how different the era was as compared to now, of the nine debate participants, only three -- Dick Gephardt, Bob Graham and Al Sharpton had officially launched formal presidential campaigns. The remaining candidates had merely formed exploratory committees to that point in the race before formal announcements later in 2003.

...in 2007, Republican candidates for the 2008 presidential nomination debated for the first time at the Reagan Library in California in a forum hosted by MSNBC. 

...in 2008, Illinois Senator won the Democratic caucuses in Guam (by seven votes).

...in 2015, Ben Carson announced his bid for the 2016 Republican nomination.




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Monday, May 1, 2023

Invisible Primary: Visible -- New Hampshirites Are Not Surprisingly Defending the New Hampshire Primary

Thoughts on the invisible primary and links to the goings on of the moment as 2024 approaches...

First, over at FHQ Plus...
If you haven't checked out FHQ Plus yet, then what are you waiting for? Subscribe below for free and consider a paid subscription to support FHQ's work and unlock the full site.


...
President Biden announced his reelection bid last week and that has set off an inevitable chain reaction, one that focuses on the president's path to renomination and possible reelection. And the renomination portion leads to the calendar decisions the Democratic National Committee has made for the 2024 cycle. There, the emphasis has once again returned to the potential, if not obstacle, then headache the demotion of the New Hampshire Democratic presidential primary in the calendar order will have on Biden in both phases of the 2024 electoral process win the Granite state. 

Understandably, that has once again brought the defenders of the first-in-the-nation primary in the Granite state back out to "warn" the president (and anyone else) about the mistake Biden is making in not only shunting New Hampshire back in the process, but in possibly keeping his name off the ballot in a likely rogue primary there. Senator Jeanne Shaheen (D) took to the airwaves on Sunday in the midst of the renewed chatter about the DNC-New Hampshire standoff over the primary to discuss the possible negative impacts the president's decisions may have:
“It’s unfortunate, because I think it has an impact [on] the independent voters who are very important in New Hampshire, and who are going to be very important to any reelection of the next president,” Shaheen said. “And it also has an impact on Democrats up and down the ticket.” 
...
“The fact that we would now discount their [independents'] participation, I think, is unfortunate,” said Shaheen, who is not up for reelection until 2026. “And again, I think it has implications for Democrats in the state — hopefully not for the general election, but we don’t know that yet.”
Independent voters are important in New Hampshire politics. They offer a bit of an unknown in the presidential primary process there as well because registered independents can pick which of the Democratic or Republican primaries they want to participate in. And while the calendar decisions may impact independents in New Hampshire, they are unlikely to be any more or less affected by it -- or activated by it -- than Democrats or Republicans in the Granite state in 2024. All New Hampshirites, regardless of any registration affiliation, are likely to be upset to some degree about the change, but that is less likely to impact the primary than the general election.  

The reason for that has been made clear over the years. Independents tend to go where the action is in the New Hampshire presidential primary. And in 2024, the action will be on the Republican side. Look at 2012. President Barack Obama won around 49,000 votes in winning the New Hampshire primary as an incumbent. That was roughly 80 percent of the vote the 2012 primary. By comparison, John Edwards won around the same number of votes in the 2008 New Hampshire primary, but that was only worth a third place finish at about 16 percent of the vote. That was part of a significant (but typical) drop off in turnout from a 2008 to 2012 when an incumbent president was running largely unopposed. Turnout was back up in 2016 when the Democratic nomination was again active. 

The pattern holds on the Republican side. From competitive 2016 to uncompetitive 2020, Republican turnout dropped by a total approaching 50 percent. 

So, there may be some independents who show up to cast a vote of protest in the likely rogue Democratic primary in New Hampshire next January, but most will be far more likely to venture over into the Republican process instead. And that is a different, albeit not completely unrelated, story from how New Hampshire voters may behave in a general election. But even Shaheen concedes she does not know the impact there. 

None of this is out of the ordinary. New Hampshirites have often turned to blackmail over the years when the first-in-the-nation primary has been threatened. And it has been threatened anew for 2024 and in a different way than it has in the post-reform era. However, independents may be further down the list of blackmail items that can be used, successfully or otherwise, as the standoff with the national party continues. The simple truth of the matter is that New Hampshire was narrowly decided in 2020 and any small change could tip the balance the other way in 2024. That was just as much the case before the calendar decisions were made as it is now that New Hampshire Democrats are scrambling for a way out of the impasse.


...
Of course, Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) has been running for 2024 for quite some time because he has been doing the sorts of things that prospective and actual candidates for the White House do for quite some time. That was true before last month when South Carolina's junior senator announced his exploratory committee for the presidency and it will continue to be the case as his major announcement on May 22 approaches: 
“It is time to take the Faith in America tour not just on the road, not just to an exploratory committee,” the South Carolina Republican told the crowd of about 150 people, a comment which received a standing ovation. “It is time to make a final step. We are going to have a major announcement. You are going to want to be there.”
This can be said about Scott thus far: He has done a good job teasing out these various announcements to keep his name in the news.


...
Vivek Ramaswamy picked up some South Carolina endorsements during his bus tour of the Palmetto state last week, including a pair of state legislators from the Low Country. FITSNews is the only outlet reporting that, but one of the state representatives, Matt Leber, seems to have indirectly confirmed the endorsement by retweeting the story. No, that is hardly a groundswell of support, but the thing worth eyeing here is that Ramaswamy continues to basically build a White House run from scratch. It will be a campaign that builds more from the bottom up rather than the top down as, say, Trump is doing in the endorsement primary. Ramaswamy may or may not catch on in 2023-24, but his is a grassroots build out and state legislative and local endorsements are part of that, a valuable part. He takes the bus tour to New Hampshire this week, where Ramaswamy already counts one fairly big state legislative endorsement from the deputy majority leader of the state house, Fred Doucette.


...
Harry Enten at CNN picked up on a parallel point to one FHQ made last week. But instead of focusing on the different ways in which similar polling numbers for Biden and Trump can be read differently, he turned toward the similar positioning of Ron DeSantis and Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. And similar though the poll positions of the two may be, how those numbers are being interpreted for both is very different. Good piece from Harry.


...
On this date...
...in 1976, former Georgia Governor Jimmy Carter and former California Governor Ronald Reagan (R) won big in the Texas primary. Louisiana Democrats caucused as well.

...in 1979, George H.W. Bush announced his bid for the 1980 Republican presidential nomination.

...in 1984, former Vice President Walter Mondale (D) won the Tennessee presidential primary while Jesse Jackson took the primary in the nation's capital.



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Friday, April 21, 2023

Invisible Primary: Visible -- How the Republican Candidates Line Up in South Carolina

Thoughts on the invisible primary and links to the goings on of the moment as 2024 approaches...

The 2024 primary calendar is not set yet. But if it goes according to plan on the Republican side, then Iowa Republicans will hold caucuses followed by the presidential primary in New Hampshire. South Carolina would come next, and it is the delegate prize of the early calendar. The Palmetto state not only offers the most delegates of any of the first four states, but also allocates them in a winner-take-most manner that promises the statewide victor a decent chance of sweeping the delegates with just a bit more than a 40 percent plurality. 

And that is important because a couple of recent polls of South Carolina Republicans show former President Donald Trump pulling in just north of 40 percent support. Now sure, the primary date is not even established in South Carolina, so it is definitely still early. Read into those numbers what one wants at this point, approximately nine months out from the Palmetto state primary. But Trump holds the pole position at the moment and how the candidates line up behind him matters. 

As in the majority of the current national polls of the Republican race, Ron DeSantis now is a clear second option to the 45th president in South Carolina. Behind the Florida governor are a pair of South Carolinians who are vying for the nomination as well. Depending on the poll, former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley and Senator Tim Scott together account for anywhere from a quarter to a third of the support there. And where that support goes should either or both falter in Iowa or New Hampshire (if not the invisible primary) is consequential. As the National Public Affairs survey demonstrates, Haley and Scott are one and the same for all intents and purposes. Should Haley withdraw, then Scott would be the odds on favorite to take her support. The same is true if it was Scott dropping out. Haley would gain. 

But if both are forced out of the race, then DeSantis is the more likely beneficiary. Some of that homegrown support for Haley and/or Scott may filter out to other candidates or even stay with the favorite son/daughter if one or both remain(s) on the ballot. But if the bulk of that Haley/Scott support shifted to DeSantis, then it could be enough to vault the Florida governor over Trump statewide. 

At this juncture, it is obviously premature to speculate to that degree. But the jockeying in South Carolina matters because it is likely to give the winner of the primary a fairly significant net delegate advantage heading into the Nevada contest and beyond. That is no small thing.

The real take home from all of this is that Haley and Scott have some hard work ahead of them in potentially creating some daylight between each other back home. An early win before South Carolina, either outright or relative to expectations, may do that. But getting to that point is the real trick. That is where the hard work is.


...

The key state? New Hampshire. 

One has to read all the way into the seventh paragraph before it is mentioned that Biden may not even be on the ballot in the Granite state if New Hampshire Democrats choose to go rogue, opting into a primary that is likely to be set by the secretary of state for some time in January 2024. 

What this poll really indicates is that a relatively unpopular president is even more unpopular in a state where being first-in-the-nation in the presidential primary process is matter of state identity if not right (in the eyes of some New Hampshirites). Moving South Carolina up was no boon to Biden in New Hampshire. Where all of them might matter more is the general election rather than the primary phase.


...
Entry points. Larry Elder is in, and so is Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. as of Wednesday, April 19. Miami Mayor Francis Suarez is close to a decision on entering the Republican presidential nomination race as well. Oh, and President Biden appears to be nearing a decision himself. 


...
In the endorsement primary, Trump continues to amass Florida congressional delegation support, picking up three more endorsements from Reps. Bilirakis, Buchanan and Waltz. The former president's campaign is not just doing this in Florida. He also claims the two biggest endorsements in South Carolina from Senator Lindsay Graham and Governor Henry McMaster. It is becoming clearer that the Trump campaign values these opponent-homestate endorsements as effective counters to candidates and would-be candidates running against him for the Republican nomination. 


...
Over at FHQ Plus...
  • Hawaii is still trying to create a presidential primary, Idaho is dealing with suddenly not having one and Missouri continues to attempt to bring theirs back. All at FHQ Plus.
If you haven't checked out FHQ Plus yet, then what are you waiting for? Subscribe below for free and consider a paid subscription to support FHQ's work.


...
On this date...
...in 1983, Senator John Glenn (D-OH) announced his campaign for the 1984 Democratic presidential nomination.

...in 1988, Tennessee Senator Al Gore (D) withdrew from the race for the Democratic presidential nomination.




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Wednesday, April 12, 2023

Invisible Primary: Visible -- An Iowa Acknowledgement

Thoughts on the invisible primary and links to the goings on of the moment as 2024 approaches...

There are a number of 2024 storylines nestled in just one bill introduced in the Iowa House this week. The measure introduced by Rep. Bobby Kaufmann (R-82nd, Cedar), House Study Bill 245, would end same-day registration before the caucuses, require registration 70 days before the nation's kick-off Republican presidential nomination event and mandate in-person participation. That is a small list of changes but together, they offer some big challenges.

FHQ hesitates to say the most important one, but the most important one with respect to the calendar anyway, is the likely impetus behind the change in registration requirements for caucus participation. The proposed 70 day buffer between registration and caucus day is aimed at preventing caucus-goers from participating in more than one party's caucus. Under the current law, an Iowan can walk into their caucus site, register with that party and participate in the caucus. With the caucuses starting at the same time and both parties holding caucuses on the same night, that means that it is impossible for someone to walk into one site participate as, say, a Democrat and then make their way over to a local Republican caucus site, register and participate there as well. 

But what if those Democratic and Republican caucuses in the Hawkeye state were not on the same evening? What if, and bear with me here, one national party stripped Iowa of its first-in-the-nation status while the other did not?

Well, it would open the door to the possibility that the two parties' events would occur at different points on the calendar. And that would subsequently make it more likely that an Iowan could, with the help of same-day registration, participate in both parties' caucuses. Now, there may be a reason for someone like Rep. Kaufmann, the son of the Republican Party of Iowa chair and adviser to the 2024 Trump campaign to put forth such legislation, but FHQ will leave that to others to discuss. 

However, the takeaway from this move is that there is a tacit acknowledgment that the Iowa Democratic and Republican caucuses may be on different dates in 2024. In their account, The Gazette in Iowa was maybe a bit forward in describing it thusly...
"That provision is designed to prevent Iowans from participating in both the Democrats’ and Republicans’ caucuses, now that starting in 2024 the two events will no longer be held on the same night."
Obviously, that reality is not yet set in stone. Iowa Democrats may still defy the new DNC calendar rules for 2024 and hold caucuses alongside Republicans (likely in January) next year. But they may not. And this bill would lay the groundwork for there to be no mischief, no Operation Chaos, in Iowa in 2024. And that mischief making could go both ways. After all, rank and file Iowa Republicans, having already completed their precinct caucuses, could venture over to hypothetically later Democratic caucuses and make things look bad for President Biden. 

But that is small consolation to an Iowa Democratic Party that appears not to have been consulted on these potential changes to the caucuses and puts the party in a short- to medium-term bind. The state party already has no public draft delegate selection plan available (ahead of a May 3 deadline to submit them to the national party), but it now may also have to scrap the one big innovation they pitched to the national party last year: an all-mail caucus process. 

...
In the travel primary, Tim Scott is on his way back to Iowa today, and oh yeah, it appears as if the South Carolina senator will launch an exploratory committee for a presidential run as well. Scott becomes the fourth candidate to have held elective (federal or statewide) office and the second from the Palmetto state to join the fray. 

Speaking of Iowa, Texas Governor Greg Abbott (R) turned down an invitation from the Iowa Faith and Freedom Coalition to speak at their event in the Hawkeye state next weekend. Tim Scott will be there. Asa Hutchinson will be there. Abbott will not. Read into that what one may about the invisible primary. 


...
It was not that long ago that the notion of Trump's slipping support among evangelicals was raised around here. But FHQ wondered aloud then whether a similar dynamic would pop up in 2024 as did in 2016. Namely, that there may be an elite/mass public divide among evangelicals or a regular attendee/seldom attends church split among those who consider themselves evangelical. That may or may not be the case, but the AP provides a bit more nuance to the story by checking in with evangelicals in Iowa. And there are pastors there who still support Trump. This will continue to be a segment of the Republican primary electorate to track both in Iowa and nationally as the invisible primary continues. 


...
Over at FHQ Plus...
If you haven't checked out FHQ Plus yet, then what are you waiting for? Subscribe below for free and consider a paid subscription to support FHQ's work.


...
On this date...
...in 1980, Massachusetts Senator Ted Kennedy won the Arizona Democratic caucuses, just his fourth win to that point in the calendar. The wins would pick up down the stretch, but Kennedy conceded the nomination at the national convention in New York that summer.

...in 2007, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) joined the race for the 2008 Republican presidential nomination.

...in 2015, former New York Senator and First Lady Hillary Clinton formally entered the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination race.


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Monday, April 10, 2023

Invisible Primary: Visible -- Three Tales of Would-Be 2024 Republican Candidates

Thoughts on the invisible primary and links to the goings on of the moment as 2024 approaches...

Paul Steinhauser writing at Fox News updates the situation with Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC):
"'This next week will provide clarity to how he’s thinking about 2024,' a Republican operative in Scott’s political orbit, who asked to remain anonymous to speak more freely, told Fox News."
Scott's itinerary over the coming week? 

April 12 in Iowa, April 13 in New Hampshire and April 14-15 in South Carolina. There just are not that many lines to read between here. A four day swing through the first three contests of the Republican presidential nomination process during an Easter recess says a lot about Scott's intentions. But then again, the travel primary is not the only area where Scott has been doing the sorts of things that aspiring presidential candidates do. 


...
Speaking of trips to South Carolina, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R) has been coaxed into visiting the Palmetto state early next week by backer and state Sen. Josh Kimbrell. It will be the governor's first trek to the home of the first-in-the-South presidential primary. One visit will be unlikely to cool the DeSantis-is-skipping-the-early-states narrative much, but as the most delegate-rich state among the first four on the calendar and the only one that allocates delegates in a winner-take-most fashion before March, South Carolina is a valuable piece of the delegate puzzle, whether part of a "long-haul strategy" or not.


...
USA Today's Francesca Chambers profiled New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu (R), another potential candidate who has garnered some 2024 buzz. 
“'I don't believe in getting on stage to blow people up,' Sununu said. 'But if getting on the stage can help me direct the conversation back to those Republican fundamentals that we can all agree on, and I can get a lot of people excited, well, then there's value in doing that.' 

"Sununu said his mission after the midterm elections was, initially, to help the GOP become more likable and develop a better message. Election losses in 2022 demonstrated a need for the party to field strong candidates who appeal to independents and younger voters, he said."
There has been a considerable amount of the talk about 2024 resembling 2016, but much of it has applied to candidate strategy to winnow the field in order to take Trump down. A lot of that has missed the mark, failing to adequately account for the differences between 2015 and now. But here, Sununu sounds an awful lot like another candidate who ran in 2016, John Kasich. Affable guy focused on the issues is a strategy, but it is one that did not work in 2016 and does not, at least not at this time anyway, seem to have much of a home in the politics of the Republican Party. Again, that may change, but it does not seem to offer a viable path to the nomination. 

And unlike Kasich in 2016, Sununu may not have a path through his home state. New Hampshire certainly offers fewer delegates (and none that are allocated winner-take-all as in Ohio).


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Over at FHQ Plus...
  • Democratic draft delegate selection plans continue to be released and they continue to reveal elements of the 2024 process to come. Yes, that affects the Democratic process, but when it comes to hints about the timing of state-run primaries, that affects Republicans as well. 
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...
On this date...
...in 1984, Walter Mondale (D) took a sizable plurality win in the Pennsylvania primary, but he would only eclipse that total in two additional states (of five more wins) down the stretch. 

...in 2012, former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum (R) suspended his campaign for the Republican nomination, effectively sealing an overall win for Mitt Romney.

...in 2020, Joe Biden (D) won in Alaska as Democrats in the Last Frontier completed their vote-by-mail party-run primary in the thick of a pandemic-affected primary season. 



--
See more on our political/electoral consulting venture at FHQ Strategies. 
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Tuesday, April 4, 2023

Invisible Primary: Visible -- Tim Scott Staffs Up

Thoughts on the invisible primary and links to the goings on of the moment as 2024 approaches...

The essential Caitlyn Byrd at the Charleston Post and Courier has the latest on the moves a Tim Scott-aligned super PAC has made in the staff primary. Opportunity Matters Fund Action has brought on both Matt Moore and Mark Knoop, a pair with deep ties in the Palmetto state. Moore, the one-time South Carolina Republican Party chair is a big get for Scott in a cycle in which South Carolina operatives have some tough choices to make with two home-state candidates in the running at the presidential level. Knoop was most recently a part of current Governor Henry McMaster's (R-SC) reelection effort in 2022.

Both hires say something about Scott's positioning in a Republican presidential nomination race. Yes, there is the Scott against (former governor) Nikki Haley angle, and these hires definitely say something about that battle within the state. However, that both operatives have South Carolina ties does raise some questions. First, is the field of Republican candidates so deep that Scott is left to choose from among those campaign hands closest at hand in South Carolina? Second, what do the hires suggest about the strategy of a Scott campaign? It is likely South Carolina or bust to start for Scott at the very least, so putting some to a lot of eggs in that basket is almost essential. And South Carolina is a big piece in the early calendar. Unlike the other three states, Palmetto state Republicans do not allocate their delegates in a proportional manner. They use a hybrid system that is likely to give the winner of the primary a pretty healthy net delegate advantage coming out of the most delegate-rich state on the early calendar. 

But these hires probably say more about strategy than they do about any "dregs" Scott has been left to sift through to staff a presidential campaign. Moore and Knoop are not dregs. 


...
Donald Trump has been able to raise more than $7 million since the Manhattan indictment came down late last week, but the former president is not the only candidate (or likely candidate) with ample resources in the money primary. Never Back Down, the super PAC backing Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has raked in north of $30 million in a little less than a month. Money is not everything, but these are staggering sums that give both men a leg up on the competition for the Republican nomination. And that is what the press releases about these totals are intended to signal to every other candidate: Think twice about getting in. Resistance is futile. Despite the signals, those who are running or considering a run, do not seem to have been deterred. Not yet, at least. 


...
A few polling quick hits (maybe against my better judgment):
  • A new St. Anselm's poll of the Republican primary race in New Hampshire had Trump leading DeSantis, 42 percent to 29 percent. Governor Chris Sununu (R-NH), who is also considering a bid, was the only other candidate in double digits at 14 percent. That would be enough to get Sununu in the delegate count -- New Hampshire Republicans use the 10 percent qualifying threshold called for in state law -- but is hardly the kind of support that a home-state candidate would like to tout. It certainly is not the kind of support that would keep other candidates away from New Hampshire over the next nine plus months. Sununu, at this point, is no Tom Harkin and Iowa 1992. 
  • Gov. DeSantis Holds Slight Lead Over Donald Trump Among Florida Voters. Without even looking at the numbers, Florida is set to hold a presidential primary on March 19. Two weeks after Super Tuesday. Likely two months after New Hampshire. Those events, not to mention the remainder of the invisible primary, will have A LOT to say about the situation in the Sunshine state in 2024. But sure, one Florida candidate has a small advantage over another Florida candidate in one poll eleven and a half months before a contest that is on few voters' radars. 
  • Trump has ‘commanding lead’ over DeSantis in Massachusetts Republican primary poll conducted after indictment. I mean, see above, but with one caveat: Trump can be two things at once. Yes, the former president more than doubles the support DeSantis received in that survey. But he also falls short of majority support. It is the latter that will have much more to say about "commanding" leads next year. Majority support triggers winner-take-all allocations in a lot of states in the Republican process. Massachusetts included (as of this writing). 


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Over at FHQ Plus...
  • If Democrats in the Kansas House were unified like their co-partisans in the state Senate, then the Sunflower state would likely be headed for a state-run presidential primary for 2024. Instead, they split (with most in the Democratic House leadership against), and the bill to bring back the primary died.
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...
On this date...
...in 1972, George McGovern (D-SD) won the Wisconsin primary and former New York Mayor John Lindsay withdrew from the Democratic presidential race. 

...in 1988, George H.W. Bush won the Colorado Republican caucuses. 

...in 2000, both Al Gore and George W. Bush swept the Pennsylvania and Wisconsin primaries (in nomination races each had already clinched).

...in 2011, President Barack Obama announced he was seeking the Democratic nomination and running for reelection. [No, Biden still have not done likewise.]



--
See more on our political/electoral consulting venture at FHQ Strategies. 
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Tuesday, March 28, 2023

Invisible Primary: Visible -- South Carolina's Position in the Republican Nomination Process

Thoughts on the invisible primary and links to the goings on of the moment as 2024 approaches...

McClatchy's Alex Roarty has a good bit of invisible primary fare from the Palmetto state. Team DeSantis is beginning its build out in South Carolina, a state that figures to be interesting in the 2024 Republican presidential nomination process. Yes, the first-in-the-South primary will be one of the earliest Republican contests. And yes, there are two South Carolinians -- former Governor Nikki Haley and Senator Tim Scott -- and a former president who won the South Carolina primary in 2016 (and who has the backing of the current governor and the state's other US senator) who are vying for (or likely to contest) the nomination in 2024. 

But that does not mean that South Carolina is suddenly Iowa 1992 with Senator Tom Harkin (D-IA) running. No, efforts are underway within the broader DeSantis 2024 effort to hire staff in the state, and a couple of state legislators from the conservative-rich Upstate already look to be on board. State Rep. Josh Kimball (R) is aligned with Never Back Down, the super PAC that has been in the news because of all of its recent activity. And state Sen. Danny Verdin (R) has also spoken favorably of the idea of DeSantis running. These are important moves for any candidate who is building an operation in a state where the big names are either already running or lined up behind another candidate. And if they are not big moves then they are among the only moves a candidate can make in building a network in one of the earliest states on the primary calendar. 

Because, here is the thing about South Carolina: it is unique among the early states. While Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada all allocate delegates in a manner proportionate to the results of their contests, South Carolina Republicans do not. The party utilizes and has for years utilized a winner-take-most scheme where the winner statewide and the winners in each of the state's nine congressional districts can take all of the delegates at stake in those jurisdictions. And that is all fine under RNC rules. All four are exempt from the proportionality requirements placed on other states with contests before March 15. 

Any DeSantis ramp up in South Carolina is a nod to both that reality and the potential for a long delegate fight ahead in 2024. A win statewide would likely mean a fairly significant early net delegate advantage coming out of the state and heading into Nevada and beyond to Super Tuesday. That is what favorite sons and daughters, like Scott and Haley, and Trump are banking on. That is what DeSantis is attempting to prevent. The rules matter. That is why, despite South Carolina politicians and a former president/primary winner running, South Carolina will continue to garner attention -- and lots of it -- during the invisible primary in 2023.


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Governor Doug Burgum (R-ND) for president? Senator Thom Tillis (R-NC) to Iowa? Count those two among the invisible primary maneuverings no one expected to start the week. Yet, there was news of both Republicans' activities on Monday. Handicappers may not give either much of a chance at the 2024 Republican presidential nomination -- and to be fair, the Tillis comms team was quick to offer a Sherman-ish statement denying a prospective bid -- but these moves signal that, as Jonathan Bernstein correctly summed it up, "Republican party actors, including politicians, are not acting as if Trump/DeSantis have the nomination wrapped up between them." 

Too true. Neither Burgum nor Tillis may actually formally seek the Republican nomination, but that both are doing things that prospective presidential candidates do is a sign amid all the jockeying for support of donors, of endorsers and of voters. It is a sign that the unprecedented nature of Trump's third run (in the midst of investigations that may bring indictments, if not convictions) brings with it uncertainty. It is a sign that there may be some doubts about the long term viability of a DeSantis run (despite strong organizational signs in the midst of a "bad" week). One or both of Burgum or Tillis may run for 2024, but neither may actually end up running in 2024. Uncertainty about even well-established and well-positioned candidates breeds activity from everyone else with an eye toward the White House. 


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In the travel primary, Marianne Williamson drops in on the voters of South Carolina on Tuesday (March 28). Former Vice President Mike Pence heads to Iowa again on Wednesday (March 29), and Vivek Ramaswamy was just there this past weekend. Former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson struck a different tone in California last week than did Ron DeSantis when the Florida governor trekked through the Golden state earlier this month. Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie may have drawn all the headlines in New Hampshire on Monday (March 27), but former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley is also in the Granite state for town halls on Monday and Tuesday.


...
On this date...
...in 2019, Miramar, Florida Mayor Wayne Messam formed an exploratory committee to potentially seek the Democratic nomination. 

...in 2020, the date of the New York primary was changed for the first time due to the pandemic, pushing back to June 2.



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