Showing posts with label Pennsylvania. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Pennsylvania. Show all posts

Wednesday, October 18, 2023

It is tough to move the Pennsylvania presidential primary

Invisible Primary: Visible -- Thoughts on the invisible primary and links to the goings on of the moment as 2024 approaches...

First, over at FHQ Plus...
  • The DNC has quietly had a pretty interesting conversation about ranked choice voting in the presidential nomination process this cycle. Not much is going to change on the surface for 2024 -- RCV will have the same basic footprint as in 2020 -- but there have been some important changes under the hood that bring the practice more in line with DNC rules. All the details at FHQ Plus.
  • I included the wrong link to the DNCRBC meeting recap yesterday. You can find that deep dive here if you missed it.
If you haven't checked out FHQ Plus yet, then what are you waiting for? Subscribe below for free and consider a paid subscription to support FHQ's work and unlock the full site.


In Invisible Primary: Visible today...
Despite a flurry of legislative activity over the last month and a half, an inter-chamber impasse played a role in derailing the effort to shift the presidential primary in the Keystone state up to an earlier and potentially more influential date. 

It is not a new story. It is not even really a partisan story. Yes, Republicans control the Pennsylvania state Senate and Democrats have the narrowest of majorities in the lower chamber. However, Democrats in the Senate largely supported the effort to move the primary from the fourth Tuesday in April to the third Tuesday in March (March 19). House Democrats countered with a bill that would have shifted the primary to April 2, in line with primaries in several other regional/neighboring states.

But part of the impetus behind the change in the first place was to fix the conflict the presidential primary had with the observance of Passover. The Senate version did that and the House version did too. However, the latter legislation would have had the primary butting up against Easter weekend. And as consideration of the primary move stretched into the fall, election administrators across Pennsylvania got antsy about their preparations for the next election cycle after the current one ends. And that does not even mention some of the other elections-related riders that made it into the House-amended version of the Senate bill when it originally came before the body earlier in October. 

Basically, the effort got mired in the legislative process. And even though the House struck the entirety of the previous version of the Senate-passed bill, replacing it with only one provision calling for the primary to shift up a week to April 16 to clear the Passover conflict (and passing it), the Senate does not seem inclined to take up the measure. 


Look, there was a lot involved in this Pennsylvania process this year. There is not just one explanation for why the primary in the commonwealth will once again be scheduled for the fourth Tuesday in April. But it is worth noting that Pennsylvania has nearly always held down that position on the presidential primary calendar. Only twice has the primary strayed from that spot. And both the 1984 and 2000 primaries were only marginally earlier in April. 

Why? 

Unlike other states in the immediate aftermath of the Democratic Party rules changes that ushered in reforms to the nomination system, the reaction in Pennsylvania was more muted. Ahead of 1972, the state already had a primary well-enough in advance of a summer national convention. In other words, a presidential primary to allocate and select delegates could easily be consolidated with that spring primary. And it was. 

But in other states, especially those with late summer and early fall primaries for other offices, that was not an option. Decision makers in those states had to either uproot that primary and schedule it alongside a new presidential primary or create and fund a separate presidential primary election. Many took the latter route and normalized the expenditure in the state budget. 

Back in Pennsylvania, the consolidated primary left decision makers there in much the same dilemma as those early post-reform actors in other states anytime a push to reschedule the presidential primary in the Keystone state arose. Only, more often than not, the thinking in Pennsylvania was not to create and fund a separate election but to move everything up to an earlier date, dates that would place the filing process in the previous year and conflict with the conclusion of the previous off-year elections. 

That is why Pennsylvania barely moved the two times since 1972 that the primary date has been changed. That, in turn, has meant that a separate primary never got normalized nor did the practice of revisiting the date on a regular basis. Very simply, the concept was foreign to legislators in the state. It still is
[Rep. Arvind] Venkat also said moving the presidential primary on a year-by-year basis could be subject to the whim of the party in control of the legislature depending on whether it would be beneficial.

“The only pathway forward if we are going to move our primary is to change the election code on a permanent basis,” Venkat said.
So yes, many of the above stories about partisan squabbles or inter-chamber impasses or poison pill riders or election administrator pushback will get woven into the narrative on this non-move. But there is an institutional story too. The consolidated primary -- one that has nearly always been where it is -- is almost set in stone and there has not been much appetite to change that over the years. There has been some. It almost always comes up in the years before a presidential election year, but it also almost always goes nowhere. 

...and fast. The hurdles are too steep.


...
From around the invisible primary...


--

Wednesday, March 8, 2023

Thursday, February 2, 2023

Bill to Move Pennsylvania Presidential Primary to March Introduced

Earlier this week legislation was filed in the Pennsylvania state Senate to push the presidential primary in the commonwealth up five weeks to the third Tuesday in March.




Wednesday, January 11, 2023

Legislation is on the way to move Pennsylvania presidential primary up

Word broke on Tuesday that legislation is forthcoming in Pennsylvania to shift the presidential primary in the Keystone state up to the third Tuesday in March for the 2024 cycle. 

State House Rep. Malcolm Kenyatta (D-181th, Philadelphia) and Rep. Jared G. Solomon (D-202nd, Philadelphia) said in a statement:
Pennsylvania has been a pivotal battleground state and will be again in 2024. Unfortunately, Pennsylvania’s presidential primary is the fourth Tuesday in April, long after many states have voted for a presidential nominee. This makes our commonwealth one of the last states in the nation to weigh in despite being a crucial swing state. Our voters should have more influence in selecting the most qualified presidential nominee for each party.

In the near future, we will introduce legislation to adjust our petition circulation schedule and move Pennsylvania’s next presidential primary date up by one month to the third Tuesday in March, making our next presidential primary date March 19th, 2024

This will increase Pennsylvania’s importance in future presidential primary elections, giving our residents increased national political weight in line with our state's size and importance. With an earlier primary, Pennsylvania voters will represent the 'keystone' needed for each candidate to win their party's nomination in 2024 and beyond.
A bill has yet to be filed, but this revives an effort that has been unsuccessful over the last two legislative sessions. It would push the Pennsylvania primary up to a spot on the calendar it would share with Arizona, Florida, Illinois and Ohio, making March 19 an even more delegate-rich date on the calendar. And while the move would bring the presidential primary in the commonwealth up into a potentially more competitive position in March, it would mean abandoning a slot where the Pennsylvania primary is the clear biggest prize on April 23, the fourth Tuesday in April.


Saturday, November 7, 2020

The Electoral College Map (11/7/20) -- Biden Tops 270

 Update for November 7 (afternoon).


Calls in Pennsylvania and Nevada in relatively quick succession put former Vice President Biden over the top.


Monday, November 2, 2020

The Electoral College Map (11/2/20)

Update for November 2.


There is just one last day until election day and this first Monday before the first Tuesday in November saw an absolute wave of new polling data. FHQ has opted to break it all up. Today the focus will be on the six core battlegrounds: Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Tomorrow, on election day, there will be a shift toward one final projection encompassing all of the other new, last minute polling data and any other stragglers in these six states.

As FHQ noted over the weekend, it was/is going to take a lot to move the needle down the stretch in any state, much less the core battlegrounds that have witnessed by far the most polling activity all year. And that is borne out in what follows. Yes, Arizona and Florida traded spots in the order yesterday, but both remained on the Biden side of the partisan line. No, neither is there comfortably. They both continue to fall under Biden +3. [But the two states did revert to form today with Florida nudging past Arizona away from the partisan line.] Everything else, however remains the same with respect to the order of these states. There was some subtle shifting in this last mega-batch of surveys, but the order (from most to least Biden favorable) is intact: Michigan > Wisconsin > Pennsylvania > Florida > Arizona > North Carolina. The same Rust Belt/Sun Belt divide that has been evident nearly throughout these updates continues right up to the last day in the run up to the end of the voting phase of this campaign.

Below FHQ will go through a pretty simple checklist with each of the six battlegrounds:
1. Who did the movement within polls -- from the preceding poll to the most recent -- benefit?
2. How many times did Biden hit 50 percent in this last wave of polls? [Interestingly or not, this metric actually pretty closely mirrors the order in the FHQ average margins.]

On to the polls...


Polling Quick Hits:
Arizona
(Biden 50, Trump 48 via Ipsos | Biden 48, Trump 48 via Marist | Biden 50, Trump 47 via Change Research | Biden 50, Trump 47 via Data for Progress | Biden 48, Trump 46 via Morning Consult | Biden 46, Trump 45 via Data Orbital | Biden 50, Trump 46 via Redfield and Wilton Strategies)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +2.82] 
Ipsos: Biden 47, Trump 47 in poll last week
Marist: Biden 50, Trump 45 in July poll
Change Research: Biden 51, Trump 45 in mid-October poll
Data for Progress: Biden 49, Trump 45 in September poll
Morning Consult: Trump 48, Biden 47 in mid-October poll
Data Orbital: Biden 47, Trump 42 in mid-October poll
Redfield and Wilton: Biden 49, Trump 43 in early October poll

In Arizona, most of the last minute movement was toward President Trump. They were not big shifts, but in five of the seven polls that had a previous survey in the series, Trump gained ground. Yet, Biden was over 50 percent in the final poll in four of the seven pollsters with new surveys in the Grand Canyon state. But the former vice president's average lead ticked down a few one-hundredths of a point on the final day before election day. 



Florida
(Trump 48, Biden 47 via Insider Advantage | Biden 45, Trump 43 via AYTM | Biden 51, Trump 48 via Change Research | Biden 47, Trump 42 via Quinnipiac | Biden 51, Trump 47 via Ipsos | Biden 51, Trump 48 via Data for Progress | Trump 51, Biden 49 via Frederick Polls | Biden 52, Trump 45 via Morning Consult | Trump 51, Biden 47 via Targoz Market Research | Biden 50, Trump 46 via Redfield and Wilton Strategies)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +2.92] 
Insider Advantage: Trump 46, Biden 43 in early October poll
No previous AYTM poll
Change Research: Biden 51, Trump 44 in mid-October poll
Quinnipiac: Biden 45, Trump 42 in late October poll
Ipsos: Biden 48, Trump 47 in poll last week
Data for Progress: Biden 46, Trump 43 in September poll
No previous Frederick poll
Morning Consult: Biden 52, Trump 45 in mid-October poll
No previous Targoz poll
Redfield and Wilton: Biden 49, Trump 44 in early October poll

In the Sunshine state, the picture was a bit more muddled. Trump closed the gap in some polls (three) as they transitioned to their last surveys, but Biden widened his in a nearly equivalent number of polls (two). And the status quo carried over in another couple pollsters final snapshots. But importantly, the former vice president hit or exceeded 50 percent in seven of the ten surveys and saw his FHQ average margin push up (and past Arizona in the order) on the final day before the election. 



Michigan
(Biden 50, Trump 43 via Research Company | Biden 51, Trump 44 via Change Research | Trump 48, Biden 46 via Trafalgar Group | Biden 48, Trump 46 via AtlasIntel | Biden 52, Trump 45 via Morning Consult | Biden 53, Trump 39 via Targoz Marketing Research | Biden 54, Trump 41 via Redfield and Wilton Strategies)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +7.28] 
No previous Research Company poll
Change Research: Biden 51, Trump 44 in mid-October poll
Trafalgar: Trump 49, Biden 47 in late October poll
No previous AtlasIntel poll
Morning Consult: Biden 52, Trump 44 in mid-October poll
No previous Targoz poll
Redfield and Wilton: Biden 50, Trump 42 in early October poll

The story was quite similar in Michigan as compared to Florida. More polls remained exactly the same from next to last to last poll in the sequence than moved toward Biden or Trump in that transition. And Biden was at or over 50 percent in five of the seven surveys. Yet, the Democratic nominee's average advantage in the Great Lakes state slightly shrunk while his average share of support remained north of 50 percent here at FHQ. 



North Carolina
(Biden 49, Trump 47 via Change Research | Biden 50, Trump 48 via Ipsos | Biden 50, Trump 48 via Data for Progress | Biden 51, Trump 49 via Frederick Polls | Biden 49, Trump 48 via Morning Consult | Trump 49, Biden 47 via Redfield and Wilton Strategies)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +1.81] 
Change Research: Biden 50, Trump 47 in mid-October poll
Ipsos: Biden 49, Trump 48 in poll last week
Data for Progress: Biden 48, Trump 44 in mid-October poll
No previous Frederick poll
Morning Consult: Biden 50, Trump 47 in mid-October poll
Redfield and Wilton: Biden 49, Trump 44 in early October poll

As in Arizona, most of the final movement in the surveys of the Tar Heel state was toward Trump. More polls (four) had the president making up ground in their final iterations than was the case for Biden (one). And befitting North Carolina's status among these six states as the closest, Biden only reached or surpassed 50 percent in half of the six surveys that were released on the Monday prior to election day. As has been the case all along, North Carolina is close, but is and has been consistently tipped toward the Democratic nominee throughout the summer and into the fall. And his FHQ average lead over the president nudged up on the final day.



Pennsylvania
(Trump 49, Biden 48 via Susquehanna | Biden 50, Trump 47 via Pulse Opinion Research | Biden 50, Trump 44 via Research Company | Biden 51, Trump 49 via AYTM | Trump 51, Biden 46 via Marist | Biden 50, Trump 46 via Change Research | Biden 50, Trump 45 via Monmouth | Biden 52, Trump 45 via Data for Progress | Trump 52, Biden 48 via Frederick Polls | Trump 48, Biden 46 via Trafalgar Group | Biden 52, Trump 43 via Morning Consult | Biden 56, Trump 42 via Targoz Market Research | Biden 50, Trump 45 via Redfield and Wilton Strategies)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +5.22] 
Susquehanna: Biden 44, Trump 42 in September poll
Pulse Opinion Research: Biden 50, Trump 47 in mid-October poll
No previous Research Company poll
No previous AYTM poll
Marist: Biden 53, Trump 44 in September poll
Change Research: Biden 49, Trump 47 in mid-October poll
Monmouth: Biden 53, Trump 45 in early October poll
No previous Data for Progress poll
No previous Frederick poll
Trafalgar: Trump 48, Biden 48 in poll last week
Morning Consult: Biden 52, Trump 43 in mid-October poll
No previous Targoz poll
Redfield and Wilton: Biden 49, Trump 42 in early October poll

There is a distinction to be made, FHQ thinks, in looking at these battlegrounds between Trump turning things around and merely making up ground. The latter is most often about partisans -- partisan leaners and/or undecideds -- coming home as election day nears. Much of what appears to be happening in this wave of surveys is the latter. Biden is relatively stationary in most of these states and in polls where Trump made gains, it is about closing the gap rather than taking the lead. Pennsylvania is probably the best microcosm of this. And that is fitting since the Keystone state is still the pivotal state in the order on the Electoral College Spectrum below. Most of the movement in the polling of the commonwealth represented here (at least where there was a prior survey) shifted things toward Trump. However, in this wave of 13 new polls, Biden was at or over 50 percent in 11 of them. That is some striking consensus across a number of polls/series of polls. Voters are going to vote and actually decide this election, but one would rather be the Biden campaign than the Trump campaign ending it in Pennsylvania above 50 percent. Of course, the former vice president falls just short of the majority mark in his average share of support in the Keystone state (49.8 percent), failing to match Michigan and Wisconsin on that count. 



Wisconsin
(Biden 50, Trump 42 via Research Company | Biden 53, Trump 45 via Change Research | Biden 54, Trump 41 via Morning Consult | Biden 53, Trump 41 via Redfield and Wilton Strategies)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +6.61] 
No previous Research Company poll
Change Research: Biden 52, Trump 44 in mid-October poll
Morning Consult: Biden 54, Trump 42 in mid-October poll
Redfield and Wilton: Biden 51, Trump 41 in early October poll

Survey activity has slowed down considerably in Wisconsin as election day has approached. The Badger state is still among these core battleground states, but there is a reason polling has decreased: all of the movement is in Biden's direction. More importantly, perhaps, the Democratic nominee was at or north of 50 percent in all four new polls released in Wisconsin today. And, again, Biden's average share there is over the majority mark as well. 




NOTE: 


The Electoral College Spectrum1
DC-3
VT-3
(6)2
NJ-14
(156)
NE CD2-1
WI-10
(253)
AK-3
(125)
TN-11
(60)
MA-11
(17)
OR-7
(163)
PA-203
(273 | 285)
MO-10
(122)
KY-8
(49)
MD-10
(27)
IL-20
(183)
NV-6
(279 | 265)
SC -9
(112)
SD-3
(41)
HI-4
(31)
ME-2
(185)
FL-29
(308 | 259)
MT-3
NE CD1-1
(103)
AL-9
(38)
NY-29
(60)
CO-9
(194)
AZ-11
(319 | 230)
KS-6
(99)
ID-4
(29)
CA-55
(115)
VA-13
(207)
ME CD2-1
NC-15
(335 | 219)
IN-11
(93)
AR-6
(25)
DE-3
(118)
NH-4
(211)
GA-16
(351 | 203)
NE-2
(82)
OK-7
(19)
WA-12
(130)
NM-5
(216)
IA-6
(187)
UT-6
(80)
ND-3
(12)
CT-7
ME CD1-1
(138)
MN-10
(226)
OH-18
(181)
MS-6
(74)
WV-5
(9)
RI-4
(142)
MI-16
(242)
TX-38
(163)
LA-8
(68)
WY-3
NE CD3-1
(4)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states plus the Pennsylvania), he would have 285 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trump's is on the right in bold italics.

3 Pennsylvania
 is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state. The tipping point cell is shaded in yellow to denote that and the font color is adjusted to attempt to reflect the category in which the state is.

These 47 new surveys from the six core battlegrounds tell a similar tale to the one that has been told throughout the summer and into the fall of this race for the White House. Biden is ahead and ahead in this group of states in an order that has been established and maintained here at FHQ. The math of this in view of the 270 electoral votes necessary to claim the White House is simple enough. If this is how things shake out tomorrow in these states, then Biden will win. Trump has to have the three Sun Belt states that are now Biden toss ups and pick off at least one of those Rust Belt states in order to successfully defend his 2016 win. And Pennsylvania as the tipping point is the most likely of those three states. In fact, that is where the campaigns have turned their attention as the days in this race have dwindled. 

1 day to go.


Where things stood at FHQ a day before election day (or close to it) in...
2016
2012
2008


--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State
Potential Switch
Georgia
from Toss Up Biden
to Toss Up Trump
Iowa
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Biden
Kansas
from Lean Trump
to Strong Trump
Nevada
from Toss Up Biden
to Lean Biden
New Hampshire
from Strong Biden
to Lean Biden
New Mexico
from Strong Biden
to Lean Biden
Ohio
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Biden
Pennsylvania
from Lean Biden
to Toss Up Biden
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was  too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.


--
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Saturday, October 31, 2020

The Electoral College Map (10/31/20)

Update for October 31.


The sleepy weekend a week ago has given way to a busier Saturday this time around with just three days to go until election day on Tuesday. If one follows the path laid by yesterday's update, then all eyes are on Georgia, Iowa and Ohio as within range of jumping the partisan line. But the day offered no new polls from either of those Watch List states. However, the polling movement continued away from Biden and toward the partisan line in both Arizona and Florida. Both now have average margins here at FHQ under Biden +3. However, despite the trajectory of change, neither will make it close the Watch List between now and Tuesday. There just is not enough time nor will there be enough of a tsunami of surveys to trigger such a change. Yet, both Sun Belt states stand as states where the margins are narrowing, but Biden is increasingly hitting 50 percent in polls. 

On the whole, however, the movement on the day was toward Trump. Most of that was fueled by a series of newly released Trafalgar Group polls that dominated the 14 polls from 11 different states. There will be more on that below. 

On to the polls...


Polling Quick Hits:
Florida
(Biden 49, Trump 49 via AtlasIntel)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +2.98] 
AtlasIntel: Biden 45, Trump 45 in March poll

The margin in the Sunshine state ticked under Biden +3 on Saturday on the weight of two polls that either favored Trump or came in under Biden's average advantage. In the latter case -- the tie in the AtlasIntall update -- the race was knotted at 49. That is a result that is not at all inconsistent with the recent Florida     polling and is actually consistent with the firm's last poll there way back in March. Then, the race was tied at 45 (also among likely voters).


Minnesota
(Biden 54, Trump 43 via Public Policy Polling
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +8.30] 
Public Policy Polling: Biden 52, Trump 44 in September poll

Outside of the recent Minnesota polls in the Survey USA series, the race for the 10 electoral votes on the line in the Land of 10,000 Lakes has not been particularly close. Yet, despite that and despite the fact that the margin widened in the PPP series in Minnesota since the last poll in September, both Joe Biden and Donald Trump were in the state on Friday. The former vice president's share of support in the North Star state is above 50 percent and his lead over eight points there. Minnesota and Michigan resemble one another at FHQ, but there has been three times more polling in the Great Lakes state than in Minnesota. Than again, Democrats are fighting the last battle in a way in region in 2020 after Hillary Clinton's campaign was perceived to have dropped the ball down the stretch four years ago. 


Missouri
(Trump 50, Biden 45 via Remington Research)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +6.40] 
Remington: Trump 51, Biden 45 in mid-October poll

One could quibble over the one point contraction in the Remington series of polls in the Show-Me state since the last poll the firm had in the field there two weeks ago. But taking a longer view of the series, that one point change is part of a downward trajectory through the lens of Remington polls in Missouri. In the last four polls the firm has conducted there since September the Trump's margin has gradually decreased from eight to five points. But the last three have been in the Trump +5-6 point range. Missouri will be closer in 2020 than it was four years ago, but the competitiveness of the state will only bring the Show-Me state toward the Toss Up/Lean line on the Trump side of the ledger. Again, that is closer but not close enough to be a state that would tip toward Biden in even his rosiest landslide scenarios. 


North Carolina
(Biden 48, Trump 45 via Meeting Street Insights)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +1.86] 
Meeting Street: Biden 47, Trump 47 in May poll

Much of North Carolina polling operates within three points range of three points from a tie. And Meeting Street Insights actually found the race moving from a tie in its May poll to a three point Biden advantage in its latest update. Again, the race for the Tar Heel state's 15 electoral votes is close and this update did little to shake the state from its position tilted between one and two points in the former vice president's direction. It is also in line with the current 48-46 (rounded) Biden lead in the FHQ averages. 


Pennsylvania
(Biden 49, Trump 44 via Muhlenberg)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +5.36] 
Muhlenberg: Biden 51, Trump 44 in poll last week

The only thing one really needs to check in any poll of Pennsylvania is whether it breaks with the pattern of Biden landing somewhere around 50 percent with Trump in the mid-40s. The update from Muhlenberg to a survey last week checks that box, but it also saw the gap between the two major party candidates contract by a couple of points. Biden lost two points while the president remained stationary at 44 percent. Barring an onslaught of new Keystone state polling between now and election day, the margin in the commonwealth is going to end up near Biden +5 heading into Tuesday. 


Texas
(Biden 50, Trump 48 via Public Policy Polling)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +1.37] 
Public Policy Polling: Biden 50, Trump 49 in early October poll

Just yesterday FHQ discussed the president's proximity to 50 percent in Lone Star state polling. Trump has only been at or north of the majority mark about a fifth of the time all year in Texas, but today it is Biden who hits the mark for only the second time in 2020. And that also has now happened in the second consecutive PPP survey in the state. In the end, that may say more about PPP than about Biden and how near he is to 50 percent. Texas continues to be a state that is stuck on a 48-46 Trump lead. That is about seven points closer than in 2016 and close enough to be a toss up, but still a state that is going to fall short of ending up on the Watch List as this race draws to a close. 


Virginia
(Biden 53, Trump 42 via Roanoke College)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +11.74] 
Roanoke: Biden 53, Trump 38 in mid-October poll

Trump gained ground in the latest update in the Roanoke College series of polls in the Old Dominion, but that actually only served to pull him in line with the FHQ averages Virginia. Biden now leads on that count by a 53-41 (rounded) margin. If anything, the previous Roanoke polls overrated the former vice president's lead in the commonwealth. Overall, the averages in Virginia now have Biden running about three points ahead of Clinton's pace in 2016 and Trump lagging nearly three points behind his. That is a slightly below average swing from the results there in 2016 to the polling average now. 



Trafalgar Group (late October battleground polls):

Arizona: Trump 49, Biden 46 (Trump 48, Biden 44 in early October poll[Current FHQ margin: Biden +2.91] 
Florida: Trump 50, Biden 47 (Trump 48, Biden 46 in mid-October poll
Michigan: Trump 49, Biden 47 (Trump 47, Biden 45 in mid-October poll[Current FHQ margin: Biden +7.32] 
Pennsylvania: Trump 48, Biden 48 (Biden 48, Trump 46 in mid-October poll
Wisconsin: Biden 48, Trump 47 (Biden 48, Trump 46 in mid-October poll[Current FHQ margin: Biden +6.49] 
Nevada: Biden 49, Trump 47 (No previous Trafalgar poll) [Current FHQ margin: Biden +4.50] 
Minnesota: Biden 48, Trump 45 (Biden 47, Trump 47 in August poll

Rather than take these seven polls from Trafalgar Group individually, FHQ will look at them as a group. Clearly, Trafalgar is a firm that produces some of the most Republican-friendly surveys out there, but pushing that aside -- or merely assuming that fact for that matter -- the trajectory of change in those polls is still important relative to other pollsters at work on the state-level across the country. What emerges from this batch from the firm with right-leaning results is a mixed message. There is not clear signal. Arizona and Pennsylvania narrowed, moving toward Trump poll-over-poll. Florida Michigan and Wisconsin, on the other hand, witnessed either minimal change or maintained the previous margin. And the margin in the Trafalgar series in Minnesota actually widened, helping Biden. The only tie that binds is that all seven states are within three points. Yet, at FHQ, only Arizona and Florida meet that bar, and only just barely at that. 



NOTE: 


The Electoral College Spectrum1
DC-3
VT-3
(6)2
NJ-14
(156)
WI-10
(253)
AK-3
(125)
TN-11
(60)
MA-11
(17)
OR-7
(163)
PA-203
(273 | 285)
MO-10
(122)
KY-8
(49)
MD-10
(27)
IL-20
(183)
NV-6
(279 | 265)
SC -9
(112)
SD-3
(41)
HI-4
(31)
ME-2
(185)
FL-29
(308 | 259)
MT-3
NE CD1-1
(103)
AL-9
(38)
NY-29
(60)
CO-9
(194)
AZ-11
(319 | 230)
KS-6
(99)
ID-4
(29)
CA-55
(115)
VA-13
(207)
NC-15
ME CD2-1
(335 | 219)
IN-11
(93)
AR-6
(25)
DE-3
(118)
NH-4
(211)
GA-16
(351 | 203)
NE-2
(82)
OK-7
(19)
WA-12
(130)
NM-5
(216)
IA-6
(187)
UT-6
(80)
ND-3
(12)
ME CD1-1
CT-7
(138)
MN-10
(226)
OH-18
(181)
MS-6
(74)
WV-5
(9)
RI-4
(142)
NE CD2-1
MI-16
(243)
TX-38
(163)
LA-8
(68)
WY-3
NE CD3-1
(4)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states plus the Pennsylvania), he would have 285 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trump's is on the right in bold italics.

3 Pennsylvania
 is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state. The tipping point cell is shaded in yellow to denote that and the font color is adjusted to attempt to reflect the category in which the state is.

It was another day with a fair number of polls and very little to show for it at FHQ. The map and tally remain unchanged from a day ago as does the order of states depicted on the Electoral College Spectrum. And the eight state within a point of changing categories at FHQ were the same as they were at the close of business on Friday. There are some subtle movements afoot, but this still looks like a pretty steady race.

3 days to go.


Where things stood at FHQ on October 31 (or close to it) in...
2016
2012
2008


--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State
Potential Switch
Georgia
from Toss Up Biden
to Toss Up Trump
Iowa
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Biden
Kansas
from Lean Trump
to Strong Trump
Nevada
from Toss Up Biden
to Lean Biden
New Hampshire
from Strong Biden
to Lean Biden
New Mexico
from Strong Biden
to Lean Biden
Ohio
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Biden
Pennsylvania
from Lean Biden
to Toss Up Biden
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was  too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.


--
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