Showing posts with label 2020 presidential election. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2020 presidential election. Show all posts

Thursday, March 4, 2021

2020 Presidential Primary and Caucus Movement (Pre-pandemic)

[Scroll down for analysis below graphic]


For a site named for the phenomenon of states shifting their presidential primary and caucus dates to earlier periods on the calendar often clustered with a number of other states, there was not a significant change between 2016 and 2020. States moved, but it was much more muted in the lead up to 2020 than in other previous cycles like 2008

There were five fewer contests in 2020 than in 2016. That was a function of a number of states trading in caucuses for consolidated state government-run primaries. Part of that trade-in was about state parties abandoning caucuses on separate dates -- one for Democrats and one for Republicans -- for, in some cases, newly established primaries (see for example Utah and Washington).

Additionally, whereas 36 states (or state parties) moved contests in 2016, there were only 30 state moves out of 71 contests. [If both Democrats and Republicans used a primary or conducted caucuses on the same date, then those were counted as one contest (unless the moves from one party differed from the other within a state).]

States have largely learned their lesson about frontloading. That era seems to have come to a close after the 2008 cycle. Either they have shifted back to previously held later dates or they have ignored the potential for getting lost in the shuffle among a group of larger states. While there was movement forward on the 2020 presidential primary calendar -- see Arkansas and California -- the average shift among states that moved as the 2020 primaries approached was just -1.47 days, a backward move.

Most of what explains that is not the pandemic. The graphic above accounts for the movement on the calendar before Covid-19 wreaked havoc on the calendar starting in mid-March 2020. Instead, what is driving the average negative movement is a group of Republican state parties either canceling primaries or opting out of them in favor of later caucuses and/or state conventions as the means of selecting and allocating national convention delegates. 

Finally, there were a handful of double moves. Both Arkansas and New York had 2016 primary laws expire at the end of 2016 which reverted each to their previous dates, Arkansas in May and New York in February. The DC Council also moved the primary in the district twice. The first change was to a date one week later on the calendar which the second reversed when the council shifted the contest up two weeks to the first Tuesday in June. On the graphic, the first move is always "underneath" the second and final move. 

NOTE: A separate post on post-pandemic movement is forthcoming.



Friday, January 22, 2021

The 2020 Electoral College Spectrum

Final version (certified results) 



The 2020 Electoral College Spectrum1
DC-3
VT-3
(6)2
IL-20
(162)
NV-6
(249)
AK-3
(125)
TN-11
(60)
MA-11
(17)
OR-7
(169)
PA-203
(269 | 289)
SC-9
(122)
AL-9
(49)
MD-10
(27)
NJ-14
(183)
WI-103
(273 | 269)
KS-6
(113)
KY-8
(40)
HI-4
(31)
CO-9
(192)
AZ-11
(308 | 259)
NE CD1-1
MO-10
(107)
SD-3
(32)
CA-55
(86)
NM-5
(197)
GA-16
(319 | 248)
IN-11
(96)
AR-6
(29)
NY-29
(115)
VA-13
(210)
NC-15
(232)
MT-3
(85)
ID-4
(23)
ME CD1-1
RI-4
(120)
ME-2
(212)
FL-29
(217)
MS-6
(82)
OK-7
(19)
CT-7
(127)
NH-4
(216)
TX-38
(188)
LA-8
(76)
ND-3
(12)
WA-12
(139)
MN-10
NE CD2-1
(227)
ME CD2-1
OH-18
(150)
NE-2
(68)
WV-5
(9)
DE-3
(142)
MI-16
(243)
IA-6
(131)
UT-6
(66)
WY-3
NE CD3-1
(4)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states through Pennsylvania), he would have 289 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trump's is on the right in bold italics.

3 Pennsylvania and Wisconsin
 are the states where Biden crossed the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point states in the order. The tipping point cells are shaded in yellow to denote that and the font color is adjusted to attempt to reflect the category in which the state is.

More analysis to come.


Friday, November 13, 2020

The Electoral College Map (11/13/20) -- 306-232

Update for the afternoon of November 13.


The final calls were made on Friday afternoon with Georgia's 16 electoral votes going to Biden and North Carolina's 15 to Trump. That brings the final 2020 electoral vote tally to Biden 306, Trump 232, the exact same final total in 2016 but on opposite sides of the partisan line. 

The scorecard for FHQ was similar to the 2008 projection when we missed on Indiana, North Carolina and Nebraska's second congressional district. Then, the polls-based projection understated Obama's strength. But in 2020 the projection understated President Trump's position in several states through the lens of the state-level polls. So whereas in 2008 the polls lagged behind the eventual winner's performance, in 2020, the issue was the opposite: running in front of the eventual winner. Although the FHQ projection had President-elect Biden winning Florida, Maine's second congressional district and North Carolina, he fell short in all three. 

But FHQ will have a more robust rundown of how the projection in the days to come. For now, the wait is on for state-level certification, the Electoral College vote in December, the congressional count in early January and inauguration on January 20, 2021. All that will occur in the next 68 days.


Thursday, November 12, 2020

The Electoral College Map (11/12/20) -- Biden Adds Arizona

 Update for the evening of November 12.


Another batch of counted votes out of Arizona was enough to push President-elect Biden over the the top in the Grand Canyon state on Thursday night. Biden claims the state's 11 electoral votes -- the first time for a Democratic nominee since Bill Clinton won the state in 1996 -- after President Trump ran out of uncounted ballots to realistically (mathematically) eliminate the narrow deficit separating him and his successor.

Georgia and North Carolina now stand as the only uncalled states. The Peach state enters a hand-counted recount on Friday. Results in North Carolina are now imminent. Counties across the Tar Heel state will finalize their unofficial counts throughout the day on Friday following the deadline on Thursday (November 12) for mail-in ballots postmarked by election day to arrive.


Wednesday, November 11, 2020

The Electoral College Map (11/11/20) -- Alaska Raises Trump's Total

 Update for the morning of November 11.


New tranche of counted ballots in the Last Frontier puts Alaska in President Trump's column. 

Biden leads in Arizona (no consensus call) and Georgia (uncalled with upcoming hand recount) while Tump has the edge in North Carolina (uncalled but results likely after November 12 deadline for mail-in ballots to arrive).

To this point, the 2020 map looks like the 2016 map with the exception of Biden flips in Michigan, Nebraska's second congressional district, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.


Saturday, November 7, 2020

The Electoral College Map (11/7/20) -- Biden Tops 270

 Update for November 7 (afternoon).


Calls in Pennsylvania and Nevada in relatively quick succession put former Vice President Biden over the top.


Friday, November 6, 2020

The Electoral College Map (11/6/20) -- Morning Update

Update for the morning of November 6.


No calls on Thursday, but...
Trump continued to gain ground in the vote count in Arizona.
Biden overtook Trump in the vote count in Georgia.
Biden continued to gain ground in the vote count in Pennsylvania.


Wednesday, November 4, 2020

The Electoral College Map (11/4/20) -- Afternoon Update

Update for the afternoon of November 4.


Multiple outlets have called:
Maine CD2 for Trump
Wisconsin for Biden
Michigan for Biden

Alaska, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina and Pennsylvania remain unsettled.

The Electoral College Map (11/4/20) -- Results


 

Tuesday, November 3, 2020

The Electoral College Map (11/3/20) -- Election Day

Update for November 3. 
[Updating throughout the day. Scroll down for final margins in states as they go final]





Final FHQ Margins -- 11/3/20 (*flip from 2016)
State
MarginRating
Alabama
+20.07
Strong Trump
Alaska
+6.40
Lean Trump
Arizona*
+2.86
Toss Up Biden
Arkansas
+25.63
Strong Trump
California
+29.26
Strong Biden
Colorado
+12.83
Strong Biden
Connecticut
+24.59
Strong Biden
Delaware
+26.48
Strong Biden
Florida*
+2.94
Toss Up Biden
Georgia*
+0.47
Toss Up Biden
Hawaii
+30.77
Strong Biden
Idaho
+22.58
Strong Trump
Illinois
+16.98
Strong Biden
Indiana
+11.31
Strong Trump
Iowa
+0.79
Toss Up Trump
Kansas
+9.75
Lean Trump
Kentucky
+13.52
Strong Trump
Louisiana
+18.61
Strong Trump
Maine
+13.36
Strong Biden
Maine CD1
+22.75
Strong Biden
Maine CD2*
+1.73
Toss Up Biden
Maryland
+31.54
Strong Biden
Massachusetts
+36.76
Strong Biden
Michigan*
+7.25
Lean Biden
Minnesota
+8.72
Lean Biden
Mississippi
+16.26
Strong Trump
Missouri
+7.14
Lean Trump
Montana
+7.53
Lean Trump
Nebraska
+11.65
Strong Trump
Nebraska CD2*
+6.06
Lean Biden
Nevada
+4.26
Toss Up Biden
New Hampshire
+10.61
Strong Biden
New Jersey
+19.86
Strong Biden
New Mexico
+11.04
Strong Biden
New York
+29.24
Strong Biden
North Carolina*
+1.85
Toss Up Biden
North Dakota
+25.20
Strong Trump
Ohio
+1.26
Toss Up Trump
Oklahoma
+25.05
Strong Trump
Oregon
+20.05
Strong Biden
Pennsylvania*
+5.14
Lean Biden
Rhode Island
+21.79
Strong Biden
South Carolina
+6.83
Lean Trump
South Dakota
+19.75
Strong Trump
Tennessee
+16.62
Strong Trump
Texas
+1.49
Toss Up Trump
Utah
+13.10
Strong Trump
Vermont
+38.27
Strong Biden
Virginia
+12.08
Strong Biden
Washington
+24.18
Strong Biden
Washington, DC
+78.25
Strong Biden
West Virginia
+27.32
Strong Trump
Wisconsin*
+6.69
Lean Biden
Wyoming
+38.22
Strong Trump

Monday, November 2, 2020

The Electoral College Map (11/2/20)

Update for November 2.


There is just one last day until election day and this first Monday before the first Tuesday in November saw an absolute wave of new polling data. FHQ has opted to break it all up. Today the focus will be on the six core battlegrounds: Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Tomorrow, on election day, there will be a shift toward one final projection encompassing all of the other new, last minute polling data and any other stragglers in these six states.

As FHQ noted over the weekend, it was/is going to take a lot to move the needle down the stretch in any state, much less the core battlegrounds that have witnessed by far the most polling activity all year. And that is borne out in what follows. Yes, Arizona and Florida traded spots in the order yesterday, but both remained on the Biden side of the partisan line. No, neither is there comfortably. They both continue to fall under Biden +3. [But the two states did revert to form today with Florida nudging past Arizona away from the partisan line.] Everything else, however remains the same with respect to the order of these states. There was some subtle shifting in this last mega-batch of surveys, but the order (from most to least Biden favorable) is intact: Michigan > Wisconsin > Pennsylvania > Florida > Arizona > North Carolina. The same Rust Belt/Sun Belt divide that has been evident nearly throughout these updates continues right up to the last day in the run up to the end of the voting phase of this campaign.

Below FHQ will go through a pretty simple checklist with each of the six battlegrounds:
1. Who did the movement within polls -- from the preceding poll to the most recent -- benefit?
2. How many times did Biden hit 50 percent in this last wave of polls? [Interestingly or not, this metric actually pretty closely mirrors the order in the FHQ average margins.]

On to the polls...


Polling Quick Hits:
Arizona
(Biden 50, Trump 48 via Ipsos | Biden 48, Trump 48 via Marist | Biden 50, Trump 47 via Change Research | Biden 50, Trump 47 via Data for Progress | Biden 48, Trump 46 via Morning Consult | Biden 46, Trump 45 via Data Orbital | Biden 50, Trump 46 via Redfield and Wilton Strategies)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +2.82] 
Ipsos: Biden 47, Trump 47 in poll last week
Marist: Biden 50, Trump 45 in July poll
Change Research: Biden 51, Trump 45 in mid-October poll
Data for Progress: Biden 49, Trump 45 in September poll
Morning Consult: Trump 48, Biden 47 in mid-October poll
Data Orbital: Biden 47, Trump 42 in mid-October poll
Redfield and Wilton: Biden 49, Trump 43 in early October poll

In Arizona, most of the last minute movement was toward President Trump. They were not big shifts, but in five of the seven polls that had a previous survey in the series, Trump gained ground. Yet, Biden was over 50 percent in the final poll in four of the seven pollsters with new surveys in the Grand Canyon state. But the former vice president's average lead ticked down a few one-hundredths of a point on the final day before election day. 



Florida
(Trump 48, Biden 47 via Insider Advantage | Biden 45, Trump 43 via AYTM | Biden 51, Trump 48 via Change Research | Biden 47, Trump 42 via Quinnipiac | Biden 51, Trump 47 via Ipsos | Biden 51, Trump 48 via Data for Progress | Trump 51, Biden 49 via Frederick Polls | Biden 52, Trump 45 via Morning Consult | Trump 51, Biden 47 via Targoz Market Research | Biden 50, Trump 46 via Redfield and Wilton Strategies)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +2.92] 
Insider Advantage: Trump 46, Biden 43 in early October poll
No previous AYTM poll
Change Research: Biden 51, Trump 44 in mid-October poll
Quinnipiac: Biden 45, Trump 42 in late October poll
Ipsos: Biden 48, Trump 47 in poll last week
Data for Progress: Biden 46, Trump 43 in September poll
No previous Frederick poll
Morning Consult: Biden 52, Trump 45 in mid-October poll
No previous Targoz poll
Redfield and Wilton: Biden 49, Trump 44 in early October poll

In the Sunshine state, the picture was a bit more muddled. Trump closed the gap in some polls (three) as they transitioned to their last surveys, but Biden widened his in a nearly equivalent number of polls (two). And the status quo carried over in another couple pollsters final snapshots. But importantly, the former vice president hit or exceeded 50 percent in seven of the ten surveys and saw his FHQ average margin push up (and past Arizona in the order) on the final day before the election. 



Michigan
(Biden 50, Trump 43 via Research Company | Biden 51, Trump 44 via Change Research | Trump 48, Biden 46 via Trafalgar Group | Biden 48, Trump 46 via AtlasIntel | Biden 52, Trump 45 via Morning Consult | Biden 53, Trump 39 via Targoz Marketing Research | Biden 54, Trump 41 via Redfield and Wilton Strategies)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +7.28] 
No previous Research Company poll
Change Research: Biden 51, Trump 44 in mid-October poll
Trafalgar: Trump 49, Biden 47 in late October poll
No previous AtlasIntel poll
Morning Consult: Biden 52, Trump 44 in mid-October poll
No previous Targoz poll
Redfield and Wilton: Biden 50, Trump 42 in early October poll

The story was quite similar in Michigan as compared to Florida. More polls remained exactly the same from next to last to last poll in the sequence than moved toward Biden or Trump in that transition. And Biden was at or over 50 percent in five of the seven surveys. Yet, the Democratic nominee's average advantage in the Great Lakes state slightly shrunk while his average share of support remained north of 50 percent here at FHQ. 



North Carolina
(Biden 49, Trump 47 via Change Research | Biden 50, Trump 48 via Ipsos | Biden 50, Trump 48 via Data for Progress | Biden 51, Trump 49 via Frederick Polls | Biden 49, Trump 48 via Morning Consult | Trump 49, Biden 47 via Redfield and Wilton Strategies)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +1.81] 
Change Research: Biden 50, Trump 47 in mid-October poll
Ipsos: Biden 49, Trump 48 in poll last week
Data for Progress: Biden 48, Trump 44 in mid-October poll
No previous Frederick poll
Morning Consult: Biden 50, Trump 47 in mid-October poll
Redfield and Wilton: Biden 49, Trump 44 in early October poll

As in Arizona, most of the final movement in the surveys of the Tar Heel state was toward Trump. More polls (four) had the president making up ground in their final iterations than was the case for Biden (one). And befitting North Carolina's status among these six states as the closest, Biden only reached or surpassed 50 percent in half of the six surveys that were released on the Monday prior to election day. As has been the case all along, North Carolina is close, but is and has been consistently tipped toward the Democratic nominee throughout the summer and into the fall. And his FHQ average lead over the president nudged up on the final day.



Pennsylvania
(Trump 49, Biden 48 via Susquehanna | Biden 50, Trump 47 via Pulse Opinion Research | Biden 50, Trump 44 via Research Company | Biden 51, Trump 49 via AYTM | Trump 51, Biden 46 via Marist | Biden 50, Trump 46 via Change Research | Biden 50, Trump 45 via Monmouth | Biden 52, Trump 45 via Data for Progress | Trump 52, Biden 48 via Frederick Polls | Trump 48, Biden 46 via Trafalgar Group | Biden 52, Trump 43 via Morning Consult | Biden 56, Trump 42 via Targoz Market Research | Biden 50, Trump 45 via Redfield and Wilton Strategies)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +5.22] 
Susquehanna: Biden 44, Trump 42 in September poll
Pulse Opinion Research: Biden 50, Trump 47 in mid-October poll
No previous Research Company poll
No previous AYTM poll
Marist: Biden 53, Trump 44 in September poll
Change Research: Biden 49, Trump 47 in mid-October poll
Monmouth: Biden 53, Trump 45 in early October poll
No previous Data for Progress poll
No previous Frederick poll
Trafalgar: Trump 48, Biden 48 in poll last week
Morning Consult: Biden 52, Trump 43 in mid-October poll
No previous Targoz poll
Redfield and Wilton: Biden 49, Trump 42 in early October poll

There is a distinction to be made, FHQ thinks, in looking at these battlegrounds between Trump turning things around and merely making up ground. The latter is most often about partisans -- partisan leaners and/or undecideds -- coming home as election day nears. Much of what appears to be happening in this wave of surveys is the latter. Biden is relatively stationary in most of these states and in polls where Trump made gains, it is about closing the gap rather than taking the lead. Pennsylvania is probably the best microcosm of this. And that is fitting since the Keystone state is still the pivotal state in the order on the Electoral College Spectrum below. Most of the movement in the polling of the commonwealth represented here (at least where there was a prior survey) shifted things toward Trump. However, in this wave of 13 new polls, Biden was at or over 50 percent in 11 of them. That is some striking consensus across a number of polls/series of polls. Voters are going to vote and actually decide this election, but one would rather be the Biden campaign than the Trump campaign ending it in Pennsylvania above 50 percent. Of course, the former vice president falls just short of the majority mark in his average share of support in the Keystone state (49.8 percent), failing to match Michigan and Wisconsin on that count. 



Wisconsin
(Biden 50, Trump 42 via Research Company | Biden 53, Trump 45 via Change Research | Biden 54, Trump 41 via Morning Consult | Biden 53, Trump 41 via Redfield and Wilton Strategies)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +6.61] 
No previous Research Company poll
Change Research: Biden 52, Trump 44 in mid-October poll
Morning Consult: Biden 54, Trump 42 in mid-October poll
Redfield and Wilton: Biden 51, Trump 41 in early October poll

Survey activity has slowed down considerably in Wisconsin as election day has approached. The Badger state is still among these core battleground states, but there is a reason polling has decreased: all of the movement is in Biden's direction. More importantly, perhaps, the Democratic nominee was at or north of 50 percent in all four new polls released in Wisconsin today. And, again, Biden's average share there is over the majority mark as well. 




NOTE: 


The Electoral College Spectrum1
DC-3
VT-3
(6)2
NJ-14
(156)
NE CD2-1
WI-10
(253)
AK-3
(125)
TN-11
(60)
MA-11
(17)
OR-7
(163)
PA-203
(273 | 285)
MO-10
(122)
KY-8
(49)
MD-10
(27)
IL-20
(183)
NV-6
(279 | 265)
SC -9
(112)
SD-3
(41)
HI-4
(31)
ME-2
(185)
FL-29
(308 | 259)
MT-3
NE CD1-1
(103)
AL-9
(38)
NY-29
(60)
CO-9
(194)
AZ-11
(319 | 230)
KS-6
(99)
ID-4
(29)
CA-55
(115)
VA-13
(207)
ME CD2-1
NC-15
(335 | 219)
IN-11
(93)
AR-6
(25)
DE-3
(118)
NH-4
(211)
GA-16
(351 | 203)
NE-2
(82)
OK-7
(19)
WA-12
(130)
NM-5
(216)
IA-6
(187)
UT-6
(80)
ND-3
(12)
CT-7
ME CD1-1
(138)
MN-10
(226)
OH-18
(181)
MS-6
(74)
WV-5
(9)
RI-4
(142)
MI-16
(242)
TX-38
(163)
LA-8
(68)
WY-3
NE CD3-1
(4)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states plus the Pennsylvania), he would have 285 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trump's is on the right in bold italics.

3 Pennsylvania
 is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state. The tipping point cell is shaded in yellow to denote that and the font color is adjusted to attempt to reflect the category in which the state is.

These 47 new surveys from the six core battlegrounds tell a similar tale to the one that has been told throughout the summer and into the fall of this race for the White House. Biden is ahead and ahead in this group of states in an order that has been established and maintained here at FHQ. The math of this in view of the 270 electoral votes necessary to claim the White House is simple enough. If this is how things shake out tomorrow in these states, then Biden will win. Trump has to have the three Sun Belt states that are now Biden toss ups and pick off at least one of those Rust Belt states in order to successfully defend his 2016 win. And Pennsylvania as the tipping point is the most likely of those three states. In fact, that is where the campaigns have turned their attention as the days in this race have dwindled. 

1 day to go.


Where things stood at FHQ a day before election day (or close to it) in...
2016
2012
2008


--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State
Potential Switch
Georgia
from Toss Up Biden
to Toss Up Trump
Iowa
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Biden
Kansas
from Lean Trump
to Strong Trump
Nevada
from Toss Up Biden
to Lean Biden
New Hampshire
from Strong Biden
to Lean Biden
New Mexico
from Strong Biden
to Lean Biden
Ohio
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Biden
Pennsylvania
from Lean Biden
to Toss Up Biden
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was  too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.


--
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