2016 Republican Delegate Allocation: LOUISIANA

Updated 3.5.16

This is part twenty of a series of posts that will examine the Republican delegate allocation rules by state. The main goal of this exercise is to assess the rules for 2016 -- especially relative to 2012 -- in order to gauge the potential impact the changes to the rules along the winner-take-all/proportionality spectrum may have on the race for the Republican nomination. For this cycle the RNC recalibrated its rules, cutting the proportionality window in half (March 1-14), but tightening its definition of proportionality as well. While those alterations will trigger subtle changes in reaction at the state level, other rules changes -- particularly the new binding requirement placed on state parties -- will be more noticeable. 

LOUISIANA

Election type: primary
Date: March 5
Number of delegates: 46 [25 at-large, 18 congressional district, 3 automatic]
Allocation method: proportional
Threshold to qualify for delegates: 20%¹
2012: primary/caucus

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Changes since 2012
Digging down, there are a number of changes to the Louisiana Republican Party delegate allocation rules for 2016. First, the state legislature in the Pelican state moved the presidential primary up a couple of weeks to early March back in 2014. That shift preceded the regional push to form the SEC primary. Still, the Louisiana presidential primary will fall just a few days later, the weekend after a number of southern states hold contests on March 1.

Secondly, delegates will be more clearly allocated through the presidential primary election. Four years ago, the at-large delegates were allocated based on the statewide vote in the primary while the congressional district delegates remained officially unbound (after having been selected in district caucuses). Unlike four years ago, then, Louisiana Republicans have linked the allocation of delegates -- both at-large and congressional district -- to the results of the presidential primary. There are still district caucuses, but the voting there will in part select the delegates ultimately allocated and bound to candidates based on the primary results.


Thresholds
Another change is in the qualifying threshold. In 2012, a candidate had to receive 25% of the statewide vote to qualify for any of the at-large delegates at stake in Louisiana. For 2016, just 20% is necessary. That is the maximum qualifying threshold allowed by the RNC. [Truth be told, that was true in 2012 as well. Louisiana exceeded it.]

As has been witnessed in other states, that 20% barrier has a limiting effect on who and how many candidates actually qualify for delegates. In a crowded field, fewer candidates would likely cross the line. As the field winnows, however, that number increases, but only to a point. Only as many as five candidates could qualify and that is only in the event that all five tie at the top with exactly 20%. In other words, somewhere between one and four candidates are likely to be allocated any of the at-large delegates.

There is no similar threshold conditioning the allocation of congressional district delegates. Unless one candidate runs away from the rest in a congressional district, then functionally, the top three finishers in a district vote will be allocated one delegate each.

Additionally, Louisiana Republicans have not put a winner-take-all threshold in place. Even if a candidate were to win a majority of the vote either statewide or on the congressional district level, it would not trigger an allocation of all of the (unit-specific) delegates to that candidate. It is always proportional (by RNC rules) with some caveats.


Delegate allocation (at-large and automatic delegates)
The Louisiana delegates will be proportionally allocated to candidates based on the outcome of the March 5 primary in the Pelican state. Based on an earlier poll conducted on the race in Louisiana (the late September 2015 WWL-TV/Clarus survey), the allocation would look something like this²:

• Carson (23%) -- 28 delegates

• Trump (19%) -- 0 delegates
• Bush (10%) -- 0 delegates 
• Rubio (9%) -- 0 delegates 
• Fiorina (7%) -- 0 delegates 
• Cruz (6%) -- 0 delegates 
• Huckabee (4%) -- 0 delegates 
• Jindal (3%) -- 0 delegates
• Kasich (3%) -- 0 delegates
• Christie (2%) -- 0 delegates

The above allocation seems quite cut and dry: Ben Carson, using these numbers in Louisiana, would be the only candidate to qualify for at-large delegates. The retired neurosurgeon would be the only candidate north of the 20% threshold that Louisiana Republicans have in place to guide the delegate allocation there.

Appearance, however, might not match reality here because there is a lot left unsaid in the Louisiana delegate allocation rules. Yes, a candidate must receive at least 20% of the statewide vote to qualify for any of the 28 at-large and automatic delegates. Yet, the above simulated allocation -- a backdoor winner-take-all scenario statewide -- is not be how the allocation works in practice.

There is no contingency specified in the event that only one candidate surpasses the threshold.³ And that, in turn, leaves some of this to interpretation. The way FHQ has treated other states in similar situations is that if only one candidate clears the threshold, then that candidate claims all of those delegates -- either at-large and/or congressional district -- unless explicitly prohibited by the state party rules.

Well, there is no such prohibition in Louisiana. In fact, the language of the rule is pretty important here (Rule 4c).

...each Republican candidate for President who has qualified for the 2016 Presidential Preference Primary Election may submit a list of 46 potential at-large delegates and alternate delegates. Presidential candidates receiving more than 20% of the statewide vote on Primary Election Day will be allocated the same proportion, rounded by the Executive Committee, of all 23 at-large delegates and alternate delegates...

That actually indirectly prohibits a backdoor winner-take-all allocation to Ben Carson in the simulation above. Carson would only be allocated his raw percentage of the at-large delegates (using the statewide vote rather than the qualifying vote as the denominator in the allocation equation). In other words, rather than receiving all 28 of the at-large delegates (for being the only qualifying candidate), Carson would only net 23% of those 28 delegates. That is just 6.44 delegates, a far cry from the 28 above.

The catch is that the Louisiana Republican Party Executive Committee has the ambiguous discretion of rounding the delegate totals. That and the above fact about raw percentages matter whether there is just one candidate above the 20% qualifying threshold or multiple candidates (as is likely the case with a March 5 contest). Without adjusting the denominator in the allocation equation from the total votes cast to just the votes of the qualifying candidates, the Louisiana Republican Party has quietly and within the RNC rules, mind you, created a group of unbound delegates.

In the above example, Carson would get 6 or 7 at-large delegates depending on how the Executive Committee rounds that 6.44. Again, the committee has the latitude to set that allocation. But it is based on the "same proportion" of the vote that Carson received statewide. That leaves 21 or 22 unallocated delegates. Those would theoretically be delegates selected and sent to the national convention unbound (but not necessarily unpledged).

Now, that leaves a couple of items to note. First, this is quite reminiscent of the 2012 Louisiana delegate allocation rules with regard to at-large delegates. The congressional district delegates were unbound in Louisiana four years ago. But second, there likely will not be such a large number of unallocated delegates. Again, by March 5 there is likely to have been some winnowing of the field. With that shrinking of the field, the chances of a smaller group of candidates qualifying for delegates -- more than one but fewer than five -- increases.

But even if that threshold is relaxed to 10% -- so that both Trump and Bush, using the polling data above, qualify for delegates -- the three of them only add to 52% of the vote. That means that, depending on the rounding by the LAGOP Executive Committee, approximately 48% of the at-large delegates (13 delegates of 28) would be unallocated to candidates and thus unbound for the national convention.

Is that hugely consequential? In the grand scheme of things -- the race to 1237 -- probably not. However, this is yet another little wildcard to file away for when the process gets to Louisiana. But the bottom line is that this seemingly was a move by the Louisiana Republican Party to comply with the RNC rules, but retain something similar to the way the party had allocated delegates in the past. Then again, perhaps LAGOP was not that sophisticated.


Delegate allocation (congressional district delegates)
Where the state party lost some discretion on that score is in the allocation of congressional district delegates. Four years ago, those delegates were elected in congressional district caucuses and were left unbound heading into the national convention in Tampa. For 2016, those delegates will selected at the state convention based on the results of the March 5 primary in each of the six congressional districts in the Pelican state.

The same 20% threshold to qualify for at-large delegates does not apply to the allocation of congressional district delegates. Instead, there is no qualifying threshold. Again, as has been mentioned elsewhere, there are only so many ways to proportionally allocate three congressional district delegates. Even with no threshold, then, this type of allocation tends to function as if it was a top three system: the top three candidates all are allocated one delegate. The exception is if one candidate wins a majority of the vote within a congressional district. In that case, such a candidate would round up and qualify for two delegates.⁴ Whether a candidate reaches that majority threshold, though, greatly depends on the extent to which the field has winnowed ahead of the Louisiana primary.


Binding
At-large and congressional district delegates who are bound to candidates will be bound to them only on the first ballot of the roll call nomination vote in Cleveland (see Rule 4f). Furthermore, delegates of candidates who have suspended their campaign are no longer bound to those candidates on that initial roll call vote.


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State allocation rules are archived here.


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¹ The 20% threshold is used by the Louisiana Republican Party to determine which candidates qualify for the statewide, at-large delegates. Though the party rules state that there are just 23 at-large delegates, citing Rule 14, there are 25 at-large delegates apportioned to the state by virtue of the RNC rules. The congressional district delegates are allocated to candidates based on the vote within those districts but with no threshold.

² This poll is being used as an example of how delegates could be allocated under these new rules in Louisiana and not as a forecast of the outcome in the Pelican state primary.

³ More alarming, perhaps, is that there is no provision spelling out the allocation process if no candidate clears 20%.

⁴ That is something of a leap in reasoning considering that the rounding rules are unspecified. If the rounding is always up, regardless of the fraction, then a candidate could round up to two delegates with just a little less than 34% of the vote in a congressional district. All that is known for sure is that the Executive Committee does not explicitly have the same latitude in the rounding of congressional district delegates as it does in at-large delegates.

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Bill Has Nebraska Mulling an Earlier Presidential Primary

2016 Republican Delegate Allocation: KENTUCKY

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Bill Has Nebraska Mulling an Earlier Presidential Primary

...for 2020.

Earlier this week, Nebraska state Senator John Murante (49th, Gretna) introduced legislation -- LB 871 -- that would create a new presidential primary election in the Cornhusker state, separating it from the mid-May, consolidated primary.¹ The proposal would move the separate presidential primary to the first Tuesday after the first Monday in March.

This is not all that unusual. Yes, it is a bit more forward looking than is typically the case. Bills shifting the dates of presidential primaries pop up every year, but they most heavily populate the introduced bills lists in the year before a presidential election. Still, there are always a handful of bills that appear as the primaries themselves are ongoing; during a presidential election year. But over the course of the last three cycles -- 2004, 2008 and 2012 -- nothing has passed.² In most cases, actors on the state level take a wait and see approach; waiting to see how the current cycle goes before making a decision on a future one.

What is more interesting, though equally forward thinking, is how legislators across the country will react to 2016 in 2017 but especially in 2019. The SEC primary may or may not have proven successful in 2016. If it is, other states and regions may scramble to the front without the southern states moving back, creating a more robust Super Tuesday that resembles a national primary (see 2008). But the SEC primary may fall flat and organically cause actors in some of those states (and others outside the region) to reconsider their positioning or consider what spot on the calendar maximizes their voters' voices in the process.

...something the Nebraska bill's sponsor mentioned as a reason for proposing the change.

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¹ The move is expected to cost the state $1.5 million if the bill is passed and signed into law.

² Unless you count Idaho eliminating the presidential primary portion of their May consolidated primary because both parties were caucusing instead.

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2016 Republican Delegate Allocation: KENTUCKY

2016 Republican Delegate Allocation: KANSAS

2016 Republican Delegate Allocation: NORTH DAKOTA

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2016 Republican Delegate Allocation: KENTUCKY

Updated 3.5.16

This is part nineteen of a series of posts that will examine the Republican delegate allocation rules by state. The main goal of this exercise is to assess the rules for 2016 -- especially relative to 2012 -- in order to gauge the potential impact the changes to the rules along the winner-take-all/proportionality spectrum may have on the race for the Republican nomination. For this cycle the RNC recalibrated its rules, cutting the proportionality window in half (March 1-14), but tightening its definition of proportionality as well. While those alterations will trigger subtle changes in reaction at the state level, other rules changes -- particularly the new binding requirement placed on state parties -- will be more noticeable. 

KENTUCKY

Election type: caucus
Date: March 5
Number of delegates: 46 [25 at-large, 18 congressional district, 3 automatic]
Allocation method: proportional
Threshold to qualify for delegates: 5%
2012: proportional primary

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Changes since 2012
The big-ticket allocation rules changes for Kentucky Republicans in 2016 are that the party abandoned its typical mid- to late May primary for early March caucuses. If that was not enough, the party also chose to continue allocating its national convention delegates in a proportionate fashion  but dropped its threshold for qualifying for delegates from 15% of the statewide vote to 5%.

The changes mean that the process in the Bluegrass state will function differently in 2016 than it has in the past. A later primary, despite being proportional, often ended up featuring a winner-take-all allocation because a presumptive Republican nominee had emerged and no other candidate received more than 15% of the statewide vote (in order to qualify for delegates). But by moving their delegate selection event up to a spot on the calendar -- on the heels of the SEC primary four days prior -- Kentucky Republicans have shifted into a much more competitive portion of the process. And by dropping the threshold to just 5%, the party has constructed a set of rules likely to allocate delegates to more than one candidate.


Thresholds
Mathematically, all eleven candidates who qualified for the caucus ballot in Kentucky could win delegates with or without the 5% threshold. Realistically though, over a month into the primary calendar, the field is likely to have winnowed, separating viable candidates -- and perhaps favorite son, Rand Paul -- from the rest. But while that may limit the number of candidates who ultimately qualify for delegates, that number will almost certainly be more than one as the Kentucky primary allocation has often been toward the end of the primary calendar. And that number of candidates is much more likely to be higher with a 5% threshold than the 15% threshold utilized by the Republican Party of Kentucky in the past or the maximum 20% threshold used by some states before Kentucky on the calendar.


Delegate allocation (at-large, congressional district and automatic delegates)
The Kentucky delegates will be proportionally allocated to candidates based on the outcome of the March 5 caucuses across the Bluegrass state. Based on an earlier poll conducted on the race in Kentucky (the mid-June 2015 Public Policy Polling survey), the allocation would look something like this¹:

• Paul (19%) -- 10.659 delegates (11 delegates)
• Bush (13%) -- 7.293 delegates (7 delegates)
• Trump (12%) -- 6.732 delegates (7 delegates)
• Walker (11%) -- 6.171 delegates (6 delegates)
• Rubio (10%) -- 5.610 delegates (6 delegates)
• Huckabee (10%) -- 5.610 delegates (6 delegates)
• Carson (7%) -- 3.927 delegates (4 delegates)

• Cruz (4%) -- 0 delegates
• Fiorina (4%) -- 0 delegates

The allocation above uses the total number of votes cast for qualifying candidates -- those above 5% of the caucus vote -- as its denominator. That allocates all 46 delegates to seven candidates. Actually, it over-allocates those delegates. After that rounding, 47 delegates have been awarded to the qualifying candidates. In the event of such a situation, the superfluous delegate is taken away from the candidate who is furthest from the (.5) rounding threshold. In this simulation, that would be Walker, who has a remainder of .171.²

In the case of an unallocated delegate, the candidate closest to the rounding threshold would receive that left over last delegate. One would assume that means closest to but not over the rounding threshold, but that is not made clear in the current Republican Party of Kentucky (RPK) rules. If both conditions are necessary -- closest to and under the rounding threshold -- then Bush would claim a hypothetical 47th delegate given the data above (and if there was an unallocated delegate).

This rounding scheme most closely resembles the one used by Virginia Republicans. Unlike others -- see Kansas for instance -- the rounding method is not one that favors the winner or the top votegetters.


Binding
Kentucky delegates to the Republican National Convention will be bound to their respective candidates based on the March 5 caucus results through the first roll call vote on the presidential nomination.

Those delegates bound by the caucus results to candidates who subsequently withdraw from the race initially become uncommitted (unbound). However, at the call of the delegation chairman at the national convention, the delegates (both bound and "released"/uncommitted) will convene a meeting, hold a secret ballot vote and bind those "released"/uncommitted delegates to a candidate for the Republican presidential nomination. Basically, this is a vote among the Kentucky delegates to reallocate those uncommitted delegates. The reallocation of that N number of uncommitted delegates is done in proportion to the secret ballot vote.

It should be noted that delegates can vote for any candidate in this intra-delegation vote and not necessarily the candidate to whom they are bound for the presidential nomination roll call vote. If, for example, Rand Paul drops out of the presidential race, then those 10 delegates would first become uncommitted and then reallocated and bound by the Kentucky delegation. Those delegates would be allocated to some number of the six remaining candidates if all of them were still in the race. In the event that just one candidate remains, the delegation would likely vote to deliver all of the delegate votes to the remaining candidate. If all six were involved still, then Bush-bound delegates, for instance, would not have to cast their votes in the secret ballot vote for Bush. They could vote for any remaining candidate.

And it should be noted that the newly uncommitted delegates (in that state because of a candidate withdrawal) take part in that vote. That makes that bloc important; particularly if it votes as a bloc. In other words, they have some say in the candidate to whom some of them would end up bound.


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State allocation rules are archived here.


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¹ This poll is being used as an example of how delegates could be allocated under these new rules in Kentucky and not as a forecast of the outcome in the Bluegrass state caucuses.

² There is no contingency plan in place that is readily apparent in the RPK rules for breaking any ties like the one between Rubio and Huckabee here.

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2016 Republican Delegate Allocation: KANSAS

2016 Republican Delegate Allocation: NORTH DAKOTA

2016 Republican Delegate Allocation: WYOMING

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2016 Republican Delegate Allocation: KANSAS

This is part eighteen of a series of posts that will examine the Republican delegate allocation rules by state. The main goal of this exercise is to assess the rules for 2016 -- especially relative to 2012 -- in order to gauge the potential impact the changes to the rules along the winner-take-all/proportionality spectrum may have on the race for the Republican nomination. For this cycle the RNC recalibrated its rules, cutting the proportionality window in half (March 1-14), but tightening its definition of proportionality as well. While those alterations will trigger subtle changes in reaction at the state level, other rules changes -- particularly the new binding requirement placed on state parties -- will be more noticeable. 

KANSAS

Election type: caucus
Date: March 5
Number of delegates: 40 [25 at-large, 12 congressional district, 3 automatic]
Allocation method: proportional
Threshold to qualify for delegates: 10% (both statewide and within the congressional districts)
2012: proportional caucuses

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Changes since 2012
The Kansas Republican Party delegate selection rules for 2016 only subtly differ from the rules used four years ago. For the most part, the change is a function of the national party change to the definition of "proportional". Just as in 2012, the Kansas caucuses will fall within the proportionality window, but to be proportional in 2016, Sunflower state Republicans had to make some changes. Again, it was subtle.

Just as in 2012, the allocation of the 25 at-large delegates will be proportional based on the statewide vote. Unlike four years ago, however, Kansas Republicans can no longer allocate congressional district delegates in a winner-take-all fashion and remain proportional. That was allowed in 2012 so long as the at-large delegates were awarded in a proportionate manner. The big change for Kansas, then, is that the three congressional district delegates in each of the four districts will be divvied up between qualifying candidates in 2016.


Thresholds
Another change is in the threshold that candidates must meet in order to qualify for delegates. In 2012, the Kansas Republican Party set that at the maximum 20%. Again, the congressional district delegates were winner-take-all, but to receive any of those 25 at-large delegates in 2012, a candidate had to receive at least 20% of the vote. Only winner, Rick Santorum, and runner-up, Mitt Romney, made the cut.

That qualifying share of the vote has been cut in half for 2016. Had the threshold been set at 10% in 2012, then both Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul would have joined Santorum and Romney in qualifying for at-large delegates.

Additionally, that 10% threshold applies to not only the allocation of at-large delegates, but congressional district delegates as well. There is no winner-take-all trigger at either level, nor is there the possibility of a backdoor winner-take-all scenario. Should only one candidate or no candidates clear the 10% threshold, then the allocation functions as if there is no threshold. Kansas Republicans have more clearly than some other states -- see many of the SEC primary states on March 1 -- written a backdoor winner-take-all prohibition into their rules.


Delegate allocation (at-large delegates)
The at-large delegates -- 25 delegates in total -- will be proportionally allocated to candidates based on the outcome of the March 5 caucuses across Kansas. Based on the last poll conducted on the race in Kansas (the late September 2014 USA Today/Suffolk poll), the allocation would look something like this¹:

• Bush (15%) -- 13 delegates
• Huckabee (14%) -- 12 delegates

• Christie (9%) -- 0 delegates
• Cruz (8%) -- 0 delegates
• Perry (7%) -- 0 delegates
• Paul (6%) -- 0 delegates
• Rubio (6%) -- 0 delegates
• Ryan (6%) -- 0 delegates
• Walker (4%) -- 0 delegates
• Santorum (2%) -- 0 delegates
• Jindal (1%) -- 0 delegates

Only Bush and Huckabee surpass the 10% barrier, and are thus the only candidates to qualify for any of the 25 at-large delegates. Bush would round up to 13 delegates and Huckabee would take the remainder. The rounding scheme the Kansas Republican Party uses always rounds up and then works in a downward sequence based on how the candidates placed in the vote count. Even in a situation in which Bush received just one more vote than Huckabee (and assuming they were still the only two candidates to qualify), that small fractional advantage would always round Bush up to the next whole number. This is made slightly easier by an odd number of at-large delegates.

It goes without saying, perhaps, that this method of rounding gives advantages to the top votegetter(s). Whoever ends up as the last remaining qualifying candidate often will get the short end of the stick, receiving only the delegate leftovers by the time the allocation sequence gets to them.


Delegate allocation (congressional district delegates)
Counter to the Republican National Committee summary of the Kansas Republican Party delegate rules, the congressional district delegates are allocated in the same manner as the at-large delegates, but based on the vote count in the congressional districts rather than statewide. Candidates qualify for congressional district delegates if clear 10% of the vote within a district. If only one candidate or no candidates have more than 10% of the vote, then allocation is done as if there was no threshold. If the above poll numbers are extended to the congressional district level that would mean Bush would be allocated two delegates and Huckabee the remaining delegate from a district.

That same 2:1, Bush to Huckabee allocation ratio would hold even if Chris Christie, for instance, received 10% of the vote and qualified for delegates. Under that scenario, Christie would qualify for delegates, but due to the rounding scheme be left out. Again, the rounding is always up to the nearest whole number starting with the top finisher and working sequentially downward. Bush would round up to two delegates and Huckabee would take the remaining delegate. This would be true at the congressional district level in all cases except for one where the top three are exactly tied. Functionally, then, the allocation of Kansas delegates at the congressional district follows the top two method being used in states like Alabama and Georgia.

As with the at-large delegates statewide, there is no route to a backdoor winner-take-all allocation at the congressional district level. The Kansas rules expressly prohibit the winner-take-all scenario in which only one candidate clears the qualifying threshold.


Delegate allocation (automatic delegates)
The automatic delegates -- state party chair, national committeeman and national committeewoman -- from the Kansas Republican Party delegation are allocated and bound to the statewide winner of the caucuses on March 5. In the scenario above, those three delegates would be awarded to Jeb Bush. This is yet another advantage the winner accrues embedded in the Kansas Republican delegate selection rules.


Binding
The Kansas delegation will be bound to the candidates who qualified for delegates based on the results of the March 5 caucuses. That binding holds until a candidate releases their delegates. That could occur during primary season after the Kansas caucuses or through several ballots at the national convention in Cleveland. Unlike most other states, Kansas Republicans have not set a specific number of roll call ballots after which Sunflower state delegates will be relieved of their binding. Instead, that release is left to the discretion the candidate.


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State allocation rules are archived here.


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¹ This admittedly outdated poll is being used as an example of how delegates could be allocated under these new rules in Kansas and not as a forecast of the outcome in the Sunflower state caucuses.

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2016 Republican Delegate Allocation: NORTH DAKOTA

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2016 Republican Delegate Allocation: NORTH DAKOTA

This is part seventeen of a series of posts that will examine the Republican delegate allocation rules by state. The main goal of this exercise is to assess the rules for 2016 -- especially relative to 2012 -- in order to gauge the potential impact the changes to the rules along the winner-take-all/proportionality spectrum may have on the race for the Republican nomination. For this cycle the RNC recalibrated its rules, cutting the proportionality window in half (March 1-14), but tightening its definition of proportionality as well. While those alterations will trigger subtle changes in reaction at the state level, other rules changes -- particularly the new binding requirement placed on state parties -- will be more noticeable. 

NORTH DAKOTA

Election type: caucus/convention
Date: by March 1¹

Number of delegates: 28 [22 at-large, 3 congressional district, 3 automatic]
Allocation method: determined by state convention
Threshold to qualify for delegates: n/a
2012: non-binding caucuses

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Changes since 2012
Like Colorado and Wyoming, Republicans in North Dakota will skip the caucus-level preference vote that had in the past been part and parcel of the standard delegate selection procedure in those states. But in 2016, such straw polls, under RNC rules, would bind those states' national convention delegates. That was not the case in 2012 or before. So whereas in 2012, Colorado, North Dakota and Wyoming all held a preference vote at some juncture in their respective delegate selection processes, the delegates were not bound to any particular candidate (at least not in a way that corresponded with outcome of the straw poll).

That the ultimate delegate selection and allocation did not line up with the original vote in the precinct/district/county caucuses led to some variation in how those states were treated in the 2012 delegate count. Too often those delegate slots were prematurely allocated to particular candidates before the delegates were actually selected at a congressional district or state convention. That discrepancy and the resultant chase for these fantasy delegates (in part) prompted the Republican National Committee to include in the rules package the 2012 national convention in Tampa voted through a provision that tethered the allocation of delegates to any statewide vote in a primary or caucus.

But there was no requirement in the RNC rules for states to actually hold a preference vote; only an assumption that states would have one.

The biggest change for North Dakota, then, is that Republicans in the Peace Garden state have opted to join Colorado, Wyoming, the American Samoa and Guam in not conducting a preference vote in 2016.


Delegate allocation/Binding 
North Dakota Republicans, though, are a bit different than their counterparts in Colorado and Wyoming. No, none of the three will have a presidential preference vote at any point in the caucus/convention process, but only North Dakota will have a truly unbound delegation. That is a function of how delegate candidates file to run as delegates. Part of the filing paperwork for potential delegates in Colorado and Wyoming is a section asking the delegate candidate the presidential candidate to whom they are or will be pledged. The Republican National Committee is binding those delegates selected in Colorado and Wyoming to the candidates to whom they are pledged. The only way to circumvent that stipulation is for a delegate to either refuse to pledge (or to run as uncommitted) or to have the candidate they were pledged to withdraw from the race (as is the case in other states).

Again, though, North Dakota Republicans operate under a different set of rules.² There is no delegate filing process in North Dakota similar to the paperwork delegate candidates file in Colorado or Wyoming. Rather, the North Dakota Republican Party Committee on Permanent Organization (NDGOP CPO) will put forth a slate of delegates to be voted on at the April state convention. The governor and any members of Congress from North Dakota -- if Republican -- are automatically presented on the slate.

Otherwise, delegates can apply with the NDGOP CPO prior to the convention to be on the slate or be nominated from the floor. The catch to that latter route -- nomination from the floor of the state convention -- is that a delegate candidate nominated from the floor must have applied with the NDGOP CPO but not included in the slate presented by the committee.

That places a premium on having applied to the committee in the first place. However, that also highlights the fact that applying does not mean inclusion on the slate.

Let's try to lay this out a bit more clearly. There were more than 800 delegates and attendees at the 2014 North Dakota Republican state convention. We'll use that number. If we assume that all 800 state convention delegates apply with the NDGOP CPO to be national convention delegates, then there is a pool of 800 candidates (plus any Republican governor and members of Congress) to be included in that original slate of 25 presented to the convention. ³ Once that 25 delegate slate is presented to the state convention additions can be made from the floor from the remaining 775 potential delegate candidates who originally applied with the NDGOP CPO. If half of those -- or any number for that matter -- are nominated from the floor, those names will be added to the ballot the convention will vote on. Furthermore, those names will be added to the ballot in order of nomination and after the slate of 25 delegate candidates who were presented to the convention by the NDGOP CPO.

If a lot of names are added -- say the 400 mentioned above -- then those first 25 from the original slate and those delegate candidates with better name recognition among the state convention delegates will stand a better chance of making it through the vote. Only the top 25 in the vote count would be elected national convention delegates.

This would be slightly more complicated if there was an organized rival slate put forth to challenge the slate presented by the state party through the NDGOP CPO. That would theoretically limit the number of potential delegate candidates appearing on the ballot, making it easier for sides to marshal their supporters behind certain slates.

FHQ raises this issue -- the importance of the slate and the parameters behind its selection -- because the 2012 North Dakota Republican state convention was rather contentious. The slate that was presented to the state convention did not align with the vote in the precinct caucuses that had taken place a month prior. Instead of a slate that favored Santorum and Paul to Romney, the slate was weighted more toward elected officials, donors and volunteers, delegate candidates more likely to favor the eventual nominee and former Massachusetts governor.

This footnote from the 2012 Republican presidential nomination process is worth raising in 2016. First, though they are not bound, the delegates to ultimately be chosen at the North Dakota Republican state convention are most likely to be pledged to some candidate. That pledge means some measure of loyalty to a candidate, but also some freedom at a national convention.

Under normal circumstances that process tends to function in a similar fashion to how delegates accrued by candidates and subsequently released do: They vote for the presumptive nominee at the national convention. But in a more contested environment, both an unbound but pledged group of North Dakota delegates and an unbound group of released delegates from any number of other states will be free to vote for whichever candidate they choose on the first roll call ballot at the national convention.

In the meantime, district conventions will be occurring across North Dakota between now and March 1 to select delegates to attend the state convention in April. That group of state convention delegates will make the decision on who comprises the national convention delegation. Both the membership of the state convention and the state of the overall race for the Republican nomination in early April will have a bearing on who those delegates are and more importantly with whom they are aligned.



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State allocation rules are archived here.


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¹ By state party rules, district conventions to select delegates to attend the state convention are to be held between January 1 and March 1 in the year of a presidential election. The North Dakota Republican (Endorsing) state convention that will choose the national delegate slate will fall on April 1-3, 2016.

² Here are the relevant sections of Rule 11 of the North Dakota Republican Party Rules (as revised on June 6, 2015):

³ That is 28 total delegates minus the three automatic delegates.

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2016 Republican Delegate Allocation: WYOMING

2016 Republican Delegate Allocation: NEVADA

2016 Republican Delegate Allocation: VIRGINIA

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2016 Republican Delegate Allocation: WYOMING

This is part sixteen of a series of posts that will examine the Republican delegate allocation rules by state. The main goal of this exercise is to assess the rules for 2016 -- especially relative to 2012 -- in order to gauge the potential impact the changes to the rules along the winner-take-all/proportionality spectrum may have on the race for the Republican nomination. For this cycle the RNC recalibrated its rules, cutting the proportionality window in half (March 1-14), but tightening its definition of proportionality as well. While those alterations will trigger subtle changes in reaction at the state level, other rules changes -- particularly the new binding requirement placed on state parties -- will be more noticeable. 

WYOMING

Election type: caucus
Date: March 1
Number of delegates: 29 [23 at-large, 3 congressional district, 3 automatic]
Allocation method: determined by state and/or county convention(s) or left unbound
Threshold to qualify for delegates: n/a
2012: non-binding caucuses

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Changes since 2012
As FHQ argued at the outset of the discussion of the Vermont Republican Party plan to allocate delegates for 2016, there are only so many ways to allocate a small number of delegates. That is probably less an issue of the total number of delegates than it is a function of a lack of congressional districts to divide up the allocation in various ways. That is the case in Wyoming as well. With the state being its own congressional district -- like in Vermont -- there are few alternatives to pooling all of the delegates and allocating them in a manner consistent with the national party guidelines (which is to say proportionally for any contest before March 15).

Wyoming Republicans, however, have chosen one of those alternatives.

And the decision to travel a route different than a pre-March 15 proportionality plan was seemingly made with an eye toward preserving the standard delegate selection operating procedure than anything else. And honestly, that is a fairly common state-level reaction to national party delegate rules tweaking; taking the path of least resistance. Stated differently, if it ain't (too) broke, don't fix it.

Traditionally, Wyoming Republicans have allocated about half of their total allotment of delegates at county conventions and the other half at the state convention. But in the face of rules changes at the RNC level for the 2016 cycle, Equality state Republicans were presented with a couple of issues. First, the party has tended to, according to state party bylaw, held the first step of the caucus/convention process -- the precinct caucuses before March. However, Wyoming Republicans 1) held a presidential preference vote/straw poll at those first step caucuses, but 2) did not allocate or elect delegates at that stage.

The straw poll prior to March is a no-go under the new RNC delegate selection rules, specifically because of the new requirement to bind delegates. Without that preference vote, though, Wyoming Republicans are able to conduct their precinct caucuses on or before March 1.

Those precinct caucuses feed into the March 12 county caucuses that will, in turn, continue to elect delegates to the national convention. Again, like Vermont, there is but one congressional district that encompasses all of Wyoming. Unlike Vermont, Wyoming Republicans make a clearer attempt at electing delegates to the national convention from across the state. The standard operating procedure the party has traditionally used has been to pair each of its 23 counties with another.¹ In one cycle, one of the counties in the pair selects a national convention delegate and the other selects an alternate. For the following cycle, the two counties in the pair switch roles. So, a county that elected an alternate in 2012 will choose a national convention delegate in 2016.

That process has carried over from previous cycles to 2016, but the most marked difference in Wyoming for 2016 is the nixing of the straw poll vote at the precinct caucus level. Yes, that theoretically allows the party to maintain an unbound delegation, but the true intent behind the removal of the preference vote was to both stay compliant with the RNC rules and maintain the bulk of the traditional delegate selection process in the Equality state.


Delegate allocation/Binding 
In practice, the lack of a straw poll means Wyoming is similar to Colorado but without the messy backstory. Some of the delegates to the national convention -- 12 of them -- will be elected at the March 12 county conventions throughout Wyoming (as opposed to congressional district conventions in Colorado). The remaining 14 delegates -- essentially at-large delegates -- will be elected at the April 14-16 state convention.

Like Colorado, sequence matters in Wyoming. Delegate candidates at both the county conventions and the state convention must file paperwork with either the county party chairperson or the state chairman before the respective conventions pledging to a particular candidate. The language on both forms is specific but does not preclude a delegate candidate from remaining unpledged.² Regardless, delegate candidates who have pledged to a particular presidential candidate will be bound to that candidate at the national convention. The only unbound delegates would be those who commit to being uncommitted to a particular presidential candidate.

Again, the sequence is important here. Delegates to the national convention will be chosen on March 12. Another group will be elected on April 16. Those delegates will be locked in at those points. That March date is early enough that delegates could be chosen and bound to candidates who subsequently withdraw from the race. The Rule 16(f) filing Wyoming Republicans submitted to the RNC laying out their rules for delegate selection do not explain any process for the release delegates in the event that the candidate to whom they are pledged drops out of the race. That said, the delegates at the April state convention are responsible for ratifying the delegates selected at the county convention level (in addition to electing 14 at-large delegates).

Ultimately, though, the delegate candidates eventually chosen will be bound by the pledge form submitted at the county convention or state convention stage. 

The automatic delegates -- the state party chair, national committeeman and national committeewoman -- from Wyoming are not explicitly unbound according to the state party bylaws. That has been the case in the past, but FHQ was informed in recent conversations with the Republican National Committee that Rule 16(a)(1) binds all delegates from a delegation. The only exception is for delegates elected directly (on the ballot). That does not include party/automatic delegates. How those delegates are allocated/bound when the state rules are not clear on their allocation is a bit of an unknown and something of a wildcard.


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In the end, the Wyoming Republican Party delegate selection plan is more like Colorado's than anything else. Those registered Republicans willing to invest the time necessary to make it through each step of the process are more likely to be activists within the state party than passersby only tangentially interested in the presidential race. That has an impact on turnout and eventually the outcome of the delegate selection process. It tends to, consistent with the Meinke, et al. conclusion, grant the state party more control over the process.

But this one is less open -- not to mention unbound -- than was discussed back in early October when the RNC revealed the state-level rules. Wyoming Republican delegates will be bound to the presidential candidate to whom they have pledged heading into the conventions where those delegates are chosen.


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State allocation rules are archived here.


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¹ Laramie County is the odd numbered, 23rd county in all of this that selects both a delegate and an alternate every cycle.

² That pledge is as follows:

As a candidate for the office of Delegate to National Convention, I hereby declare that I am supporting and will cast my vote at National Convention for ______________________________________ as the Republican Nominee for the office of Presidentof the United States. With this declaration I ask for the support of the voters in my County Convention/Delegates to the Wyoming State Convention.

Recent Posts:
2016 Republican Delegate Allocation: NEVADA

2016 Republican Delegate Allocation: VIRGINIA

2016 Republican Delegate Allocation: VERMONT

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2016 Republican Delegate Allocation: NEVADA

This is part fifteen of a series of posts that will examine the Republican delegate allocation rules by state. The main goal of this exercise is to assess the rules for 2016 -- especially relative to 2012 -- in order to gauge the potential impact the changes to the rules along the winner-take-all/proportionality spectrum may have on the race for the Republican nomination. For this cycle the RNC recalibrated its rules, cutting the proportionality window in half (March 1-14), but tightening its definition of proportionality as well. While those alterations will trigger subtle changes in reaction at the state level, other rules changes -- particularly the new binding requirement placed on state parties -- will be more noticeable. 

NEVADA

Election type: caucus
Date: February 23 
Number of delegates: 30 [15 at-large, 12 congressional district, 3 automatic]
Allocation method: proportional
Threshold to qualify for delegates: "Any candidate who receives less than the percentage required for one Delegate will receive no Delegates."¹
2012: proportional caucuses

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Changes since 2012
The Nevada Republican Party method of delegate allocation for 2016 does not really seem to be that much of a departure from what the party used four years ago. It isn't. Silver state Republicans will once again select delegates to the national convention in a caucus/convention system and will proportionally allocate those delegates to candidates based on a preference poll taken at precinct caucuses across the state on Tuesday, February 23.

Cut and dry, right?

In reality, nothing is ever actually as easy as that in Nevada. The delegate selection process for Silver state Republicans has been riddled with problems since they were reluctantly added to the carve-out state line-up for the 2008 cycle.² In that first cycle in 2008, a rift between the state party and delegates aligned with Ron Paul forced the early adjournment of the state convention. Four years later, counting problems plagued the precinct caucuses overwhelmingly won by Mitt Romney and the state convention saw Ron Paul delegates elected to what had been assumed throughout primary season 2012 to be Romney delegate slots.

It is that latter issue from the 2012 state convention that contributed to rules changes at the national party level. The RNC's new binding requirement, in turn, triggered additional changes to the Nevada Republican method of delegate selection for the 2016 cycle. And that constitutes the biggest change to the state-level rules. The same sort of proportionality is in place that was there in 2012, but for 2016, that allocation is backed by a stronger, clearer set of rules regarding the binding of delegates to the national convention in Cleveland. [More on that below.]


Thresholds
Technically, there is no official threshold to qualify for any of the proportionally allocated delegates from Nevada. But the language of rules matters. Chapter 3, Section 1.0 of the Nevada Republican Party delegate rules sets the parameters here. To win any delegates a candidate must receive at least the percentage of the vote statewide required to qualify for one delegate. While the RNC recognizes Nevada as a state operating without a threshold for delegates, functionally, a candidate must win at least 3.33% of the vote to receive one of the 30 delegates available from the state.


Delegate allocation  [Simulation]
All 30 Nevada delegates will be proportionally allocated to candidates based on the outcome of the preference poll conducted at the February 23 precinct caucuses in the state. A simulated allocation based on the early October CNN poll of the Silver state (the most recent at the time of this writing),  would look something like this³ [AGAIN, THIS IS JUST A SIMULATION; NOT A PROJECTION]:

• Trump (38%) -- 11.4 delegates 
• Carson (22%) -- 6.6 delegates 
• Fiorina (8%) -- 2.4 delegates 
• Rubio (7%) -- 2.1 delegates 
• Bush (6%) -- 1.8 delegates 
• Cruz (4%) -- 1.2 delegates 
• Huckabee (4%) -- 1.2 delegates 
• Paul (2%) -- 0.6 delegates 
• Christie (1%) -- 0.3 delegates 
• Pataki (1%) -- 0.3 delegates 
• Kasich (1%) -- 0.3 delegates

Note that FHQ has left those totals unrounded. That is due to the rounding scheme the Nevada Republican Party is utilizing; a largest remainder method. All that means is that there is a particular sequence to the rounding. First, those candidates who do not qualify for delegates are removed from consideration. Everyone below 3.33% of the statewide vote fits that category. Given the language of the rule, then, Paul, Christie, Pataki and Kasich do not qualify and cannot round up to one delegate. 

Rather than starting with the top votegetter and working down the list until all of the available delegates have been allocated, the largest remainder method first allocates the baseline integer number of delegates to their respective candidates. Trump would receive 11 delegates, Carson 6, Fiorina 2 and so on. That would allocate 24 of the 30 Nevada delegates, leaving six unallocated before rounding. 

In the second part of the largest remainder method of rounding, the candidates are arranged/ordered according to the fraction they have left over. That would place Bush -- with .8 -- first in line followed by Carson, Trump, Fiorina and on down to Rubio who has a remainder of just .1. Bush, then, would round up to two delegates, and then each subsequent candidate in the order would be rounded up until all of the remaining unallocated delegates are allocated. 

Recall that there were six unallocated delegates. Additionally, there were seven candidates who qualified for delegates. Each of the top six -- everyone but Rubio -- would round up a delegate for an allocation that looks like this:

• Trump (38%) -- 12 delegates 
• Carson (22%) -- 7 delegates 
• Fiorina (8%) -- 3 delegates 
• Rubio (7%) -- 2 delegates 
• Bush (6%) -- 2 delegates 
• Cruz (4%) -- 2 delegates 
• Huckabee (4%) -- 2 delegates 

Binding
The above is essentially the reserving of delegate slots for particular candidates. Actual delegate candidates will be elected to fill those slots at the Nevada state convention. This is in line with how Nevada Republicans have conducted the process in the past. However, for 2016, the rules are a bit more specific in terms of how delegates are bound to candidates.

How different?

Let's say that Trump wins Nevada with 38% of the vote as was assumed in the hypothetical delegate allocation above. Yet, Carson, like Ron Paul before him, overruns the caucus/convention process and additionally corners the market on delegates who are elected/selected to attend the state convention and are thus eligible to be national convention delegates. An overwhelming number of Carson-aligned state convention delegates would all vote for each other and win all or most of the national convention spots. However, once all of Carson's 7 "earned" spots to the national convention were filled by delegates pledged to him, those remaining Carson-aligned national delegates would be bound to the (other) candidates who had 1) earned delegates from the preference vote at the caucuses and 2) were still in the race. If, for instance, Trump was the only other candidate still in the nomination race by the time of the (typically) late spring state convention, some Carson-aligned delegates would fill Trump's allocated slots, but the others would either be bound to Carson or unbound -- because the other candidates had dropped out -- but free to support Carson on the first ballot at the convention.

This is a long way -- through this probably exaggerated exercise -- of saying that the Nevada delegates will be bound to candidates on the first ballot regardless of the candidate that delegate may prefer.

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There are some caveats to add to the discussion, though. One, as alluded to above, is that if candidates drop their delegates can become unbound. Can. Those delegates becoming unbound depends, however, on the candidate to whom they are bound not only exiting the race but releasing those delegates as well.

But that is just one option available to such a candidate. The candidate who has suspended their campaign can also choose to hold on to those delegates or can opt before the state convention to have them proportionally reallocated to the candidates still in the race.

Opting to reallocate those earned delegate slots would mean choosing to ensure that all of a withdrawn candidate's delegates are bound to the remaining candidates as opposed to, say, deciding that all of those delegates become unbound and then support Carson (as is consistent with the hypothetical above where Carson dominates the delegate election process). The withdrawn candidate can choose to have their delegates bound rather than releasing them to support someone the withdrawn candidate does not prefer.

How would this reallocation work?

Well, let's assume that Trump after having won Nevada later chooses to withdraw from the race after performing poorly in the states that follow on the primary calendar. But he chooses to reallocate those delegates rather than yield them all to Carson in an unbound situation (again, assuming that Carson has overrun the delegate election process).

Trump's 12 delegates would be reallocated as follows:

• Carson (22%) -- 12.94 delegates (13)
• Fiorina (8%) -- 4.71 delegates (5)
• Rubio (7%) -- 4.12 delegates (4)
• Bush (6%) -- 3.53 delegates (4)
• Cruz (4%) -- 2.35 delegates (2)
• Huckabee (4%) -- 2.35 delegates (2)

This is perhaps a bit of a stretch: to assume that the Nevada winner drops out but some of the other candidates below him there stay in the race. Still, it illustrates how delegates would be reallocated. In practice, this is more likely than not a move to allow all of delegates to be reallocated and bound to the one remaining candidate in the race; the presumptive nominee.⁴ As noted above, though, there is some gamesmanship to this reallocation provision of the Nevada rules if there is not a presumptive nominee by the time of the Nevada state convention.


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State allocation rules are archived here.

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¹ This can potentially be interpreted two ways:

1. A candidate must receive at least 3.33% of the preference vote. That is the vote share required to receive exactly one delegate.  
2. A candidate must receive at least 1.67% of the preference vote. That is the vote share required to round up to one delegate. The allocation instructions do include guidance detailing the rounding of fractional delegates to the nearest whole number.

Threshold aside, this is a discussion about the minimum vote share to qualify for one delegate. The odds are high that such a candidate will not be around when delegates are selected and assigned at the subsequent state convention anyway. Regardless, the literal meaning would seem to preclude option #2 above.

² The Democratic National Committee added both Nevada and South Carolina to the cast of early state contests in 2006. With South Carolina at that point already a part of the group with Iowa and New Hampshire within the Republican nomination process, Nevada Republicans forced the issue and scheduled early caucuses to coincide with their Democratic counterparts for 2008.

³ This poll is being used as an example of how delegates could be allocated under these new rules in Nevada and not as a forecast of the outcome in the Silver state caucuses.

⁴ In the event that a candidate wins all of the Nevada delegates in such a scenario, the state party chairperson becomes unbound in order for the delegation not to violate RNC Rule 38.

Recent Posts:
2016 Republican Delegate Allocation: VIRGINIA

2016 Republican Delegate Allocation: VERMONT

2016 Republican Delegate Allocation: TEXAS

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2016 Republican Delegate Allocation: VIRGINIA

Updated 3.1.16

This is part fourteen of a series of posts that will examine the Republican delegate allocation rules by state. The main goal of this exercise is to assess the rules for 2016 -- especially relative to 2012 -- in order to gauge the potential impact the changes to the rules along the winner-take-all/proportionality spectrum may have on the race for the Republican nomination. For this cycle the RNC recalibrated its rules, cutting the proportionality window in half (March 1-14), but tightening its definition of proportionality as well. While those alterations will trigger subtle changes in reaction at the state level, other rules changes -- particularly the new binding requirement placed on state parties -- will be more noticeable. 

VIRGINIA

Election type: primary
Date: March 1 
Number of delegates: 49 [13 at-large, 33 congressional district, 3 automatic]
Allocation method: proportional
Threshold to qualify for delegates: Technically, there is no threshold. Mathematically, a candidate would have to win at least 1.087% of the statewide vote to round up to a full delegate.
2012: proportional primary

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Changes since 2012
The presidential primary in the Commonwealth of Virginia occupies the same first Tuesday in March spot on the calendar it did just four years ago, but the rules for how national convention delegates will be allocated to the various candidates are different for 2016.

Much of the impetus behind that change at the state level is attributable to how the Republican National Committee tweaked its 2012 definition of proportionality for the 2016 cycle. Four years ago states could comply with the proportionality requirement by only allocating their at-large delegates in a proportionate manner. The way the national party rules were constructed for 2012, a winner-take-all allocation at the congressional district level was still possible. That is not the case in 2016. Now, a state like Virginia cannot merely proportionally allocate a little less than a third of its total number of delegates (13 of 49 total) and then allow the winners of each of the commonwealth's 11 congressional districts to take all three of the delegates from those congressional districts.

That was how the Virginia Republican Party approached the newly instituted proportionality requirement in 2012. And they were not alone. That ended up being the most popular response among the early (before April) states that had to make rules changes in 2012 in order to comply with the new national party requirement. It was the path of least resistance for most states.

But Virginia differs from many of the other states FHQ has already examined in how it has adapted to the stricter RNC definition of proportionality for 2016. As opposed to some of its SEC primary compatriots -- Georgia, Oklahoma and Texas come to mind as examples of state-level plans that were overly proportional under the old definition of proportionality in 2012 -- Virginia Republicans have dropped the separate, unit-specific allocation of delegates altogether.

The apportionment of delegates from the RNC to Virginia may differentiate between the 13 at-large/statewide delegates, three automatic delegates and the 33 congressional district delegates, then, but the allocation of delegates, according to the new state-level rules, does not. All that means is that Virginia has pooled all of their delegates and will allocate them based on the results of the statewide primary. Virginia Republicans will do that in 2016 rather than proportionally allocate the at-large delegates based on the statewide outcome in the primary and the congressional district delegates based on the results in each of the congressional districts.


Thresholds
The threshold for qualifying for delegates in the Old Dominion has also changed. In 2012, a candidate had to win at least 15% of the statewide vote to qualify for any of the 13 at-large delegates. Of course, given that only two candidates -- Mitt Romney and Ron Paul -- were able to make the 2012 Virginia primary ballot, that threshold was next to meaningless. A candidate could also have won all of the at-large delegates if they received a majority of the statewide vote. Again, given the conditions of 2012 -- only two candidates -- it was much more likely that someone would (and Mitt Romney did) cross that majority threshold.

That would have operated in a much different manner in 2016 with many more candidates on the ballot.

Alas, those two thresholds -- the qualifying threshold and the winner-take-all threshold -- are no more in Virginia for 2016. That there are more candidates in 2016 than was the case in 2012 and the fact that there is no qualifying threshold means that Virginia is much more likely to be a wide open contest this cycle. That is even true once one accounts for the very likely winnowing the field will undergo throughout February.


Delegate allocation (at-large/congressional district/automatic delegates)
The at-large, automatic and congressional district delegates -- 49 delegates in total -- will be proportionally allocated to candidates based on the outcome of the March 1 presidential primary in the state. Based on a poll conducted on the race in Virginia (the mid-November University of Mary Washington poll), the allocation would look something like this¹:

• Carson (29%) -- 14.21 delegates (14 delegates)
• Trump (24%) -- 11.76 delegates (12 delegates)
• Rubio (11%) -- 5.39 delegates (5 delegates)
• Cruz (10%) -- 4.90 delegates (5 delegates)
• Bush (5%) -- 2.45 delegates (2 delegates)
• Fiorina (5%) -- 2.45 delegates (2 delegates)
• Paul (4%) -- 1.96 delegates (2 delegates)
• Huckabee (4%) -- 1.96 delegates (2 delegates)
• Christie (4%) -- 1.96 delegates (2 delegates)
• Kasich (1%) -- 0.49 delegates (0 delegates)

Now, there are a couple of related caveats to this. "Don't Know" received 2% support in that Mary Washington poll. That and the rounding leaves three delegates (of 49) unallocated. One of those three delegates would go to Don't Know, only Don't Know is not and will not be on the Virginia presidential primary ballot. Counting Don't Know leaves two unallocated delegates.

In the event of an unallocated or overallocated delegate the extra delegate is either added to (unallocated) or taken away from (overallocated) the candidate nearest the rounding threshold. In this case, that would be the .5 delegates level. For example, if there was an unallocated delegate with the above data, John Kasich would claim it by virtue of being closest to the rounding threshold with a remainder of .49. However, if there had been an overallocation, the superfluous delegate would be removed from Ted Cruz's total. At .76, Trump would have the lowest remainder of all the candidates who rounded up to the nearest whole number.²

And to be clear here, the rounding rule is that fractional delegates are rounded to the nearest whole number. Anything .5 or above rounds up. Anything below .5 rounds down.


Binding
The Virginia delegation will be bound to the candidates who qualified for delegates based on the results of the presidential primary during the first ballot at the national convention in Cleveland. Presumably, delegates bound to candidates who have withdrawn from the race, suspended their campaigns and/or released their delegates will be unbound at the national convention. However, that is not clear here or here.


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State allocation rules are archived here.


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¹ This poll is being used as an example of how delegates could be allocated under these new rules in Virginia and not as a forecast of the outcome in the Old Dominion presidential primary.

² If "Don't Know" is included, there actually would have been an unallocated delegate. With 2% support, Don't Know would have qualified for one delegate (rounding up from .98). That would have left two unallocated delegates that Kasich and then either Bush or Fiorina would be awarded for being the candidates closest to the rounding threshold.

Recent Posts:
2016 Republican Delegate Allocation: VERMONT

2016 Republican Delegate Allocation: TEXAS

2016 Republican Delegate Allocation: TENNESSEE

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