Showing posts with label Kentucky. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Kentucky. Show all posts

Friday, October 30, 2020

The Electoral College Map (10/30/20)

Update for October 30.


The final full work week prior to election day next Tuesday came to a close Friday laden with another [totally expected] round poll releases. In all, there were 37 new surveys added from 21 states, fueled by a 16 state wave from Swayable that offered some interesting results that were not necessarily in sync with what has been established in state-level polls across the country in 2020. Across the full set of the day's surveys five of the FHQ categories were represented with only the small group of Lean Trump states left out. 

But as this race eases into the weekend before voting concludes next week, things are probably pretty close to locked in at FHQ. As the days dwindle, movement in the order will likely be confined to the states on the Watch List below. And even among that group of eight states -- now that New Hampshire has rejoined the List -- only three are within a fraction of a point of shifting over the partisan line and altering the overall electoral vote tally. The trajectory of recent polling suggests that Georgia is likely to stay on the Biden side of the line and that Iowa is closing, pushing toward the former vice president as well. Ohio, on the other hand, has moved in the opposite direction toward the periphery of even being included on the Watch List. 

Aside from those three and barring an absolute flood of polling from North Carolina and/or Texas (and Maine's second congressional district for that matter), those states are also likely to stay just where they are at FHQ. Both have proven to be have been consistently close but persistently on their respective sides of the partisan line. That does not mean, however, that either is destined to fall in their projected categories come Tuesday (or in the following few days), but rather that each is within a range where a polling error of two or three points could easily place either in the other candidate's coalition of states once the dust has settled.

On to the polls...


Polling Quick Hits:
Connecticut
(Biden 51, Trump 26 via Sacred Heart University)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +23.99] 
Biden 47, Trump 34 in April poll

Clearly Sacred Heart does not aggressively push their undecideds. There is still a 20 percent chunk of respondents in this latest survey that fall in that category. But even with such a high share of undecideds, Biden still has a 25 point advantage over Trump in a state that will be blue when the votes come in. 


Florida
(Biden 52, Trump 45 via Public Policy Polling | Biden 50, Trump 47 via Harris Poll)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +3.08] 
Public Policy Polling: Biden 48, Trump 44 in August poll
Harris: Biden 48, Trump 48 in mid-October poll

FHQ mentioned this yesterday and will repeat it today given these two new surveys out of the Sunshine state: The race in Florida may in fact be narrowing, but Biden continues to hit 50 percent in polls at a higher clip as election day approaches than he did in earlier times. Both updates also shifted in the Democratic nominee's favor as well. 


Georgia
(Trump 48, Biden 47 via Landmark Communications)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +0.41] 
Trump 49, Biden 45 in poll last week

The Landmark Communications series of polls in the Peach state this year has tended to favor the president with only one exception: the poll in the field the day after the first presidential debate at the end of September. Biden led that survey by a couple of points, but has consistently trailed Trump in the series. Yet, the president's edge shrunk in the last week since the previous Landmark survey. Although the poll shows Trump in the lead, the movement toward Biden is consistent with other recent polling of Georgia.


Kentucky
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +18.09] 
No previous Bluegrass poll

That the president had but 52 percent of respondents backing him in this Bluegrass C&T  poll is largely attributable to the nearly 10 percent of the sample that remained undecided. Like Connecticut, however, Kentucky is a safe state, but one that tips in Trump's direction. But it should be noted that this matches the lowest share of support the president has had in any Kentucky poll all year. But Biden has been fairly stable in the upper 30s in recent polls and the Bluegrass state will be red on Tuesday or soon thereafter.


Michigan
(Biden 54, Trump 44 via Public Policy Polling | Biden 51, Trump 44 via RMG Research | Biden 54, Trump 41 via Kiaer Research)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +7.43] 
Public Policy Polling: Biden 50, Trump 43 in poll last week
RMG Research: Biden 48, Trump 42 in mid-October poll
Kiaer Research: Biden 50, Trump 35 in June poll

The big thing in Michigan at this late date is that after weeks of being on the cusp of cresting above 50 percent in the FHQ averages, Biden has finally done so after another batch surveys on Friday showing the former vice president over that threshold across the board. And with the exception of the Kiaer survey, the Democratic nominee's edge has increased from poll-to-poll as well. Even in that survey, Biden maintains a double digit lead.


Nevada
(Biden 50, Trump 44 via Gravis Marketing)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +4.65] 
No previous Gravis poll [Current FHQ averages in Nevada: Biden 49, Trump 44 (rounded)]

While this Gravis poll of the Silver state basically falls right on the established FHQ average margin in Nevada, it did bump the margin up toward the five point line that separates the Toss Up and Lean categories. Nevada remains a toss up under the FHQ averages, but that may be partially explained by the general lack of polling overall in the state. There have been just 21 surveys of Silver state voters, but Biden has been hovering around 50 percent much of the time. The former vice president has hit or surpassed that threshold eight time with half coming during the month of October alone. 


New Hampshire
(Biden 53, Trump 45 via University of New Hampshire | Biden 52, Trump 44 via Saint Anselm)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +10.81] 
UNH: Biden 55, Trump 43 in mid-October poll
Saint Anselm: Biden 53, Trump 41 in early October poll

While much of the new polling today shifted in Biden's direction, the latest updates from Granite state university polls saw some contraction in the margins in both over the last surveys in the series. Despite that decrease, however, the president continues to lag overall by more than ten points in a state that was decided by less than a point four years ago. Trump did make up some ground, pulling out of the low 40s in both polls. He currently sits at 42 percent in the FHQ averages.


North Carolina
(Trump 48, Biden 47 via Pulse Opinion Research | Biden 51, Trump 46 via Harris Poll | Trump 48, Biden 46 via Cardinal Point Analytics | Biden 50, Trump 48 via East Carolina | Biden 52, Trump 46 via Marist)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +1.85] 
Pulse Opinion Research: Trump 49, Biden 48 in mid-October poll
No previous Harris poll
Cardinal Point: Trump 48, Biden 47 in July poll
ECU: Biden 51, Trump 47 in mid-October poll
Marist: Biden 51, Trump 44 in July poll

The one take home message from another slew of polling out of the Tar Heel state is that North Carolina is close. That is not news. But on top of that, there is little change across any of these polls from their prior times in the field in the state. It was movement of a point for either candidate and no more than a two point swing in any of them. Of course, a two point swing can matter in a tightly contested state. But there was a two point swing in each candidate's favor.


Pennsylvania
(Biden 52, Trump 45 via Public Policy Polling | Biden 51, Trump 46 via Harris Poll)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +5.43] 
Public Policy Polling: Biden 51, Trump 46 in poll last week
Harris: Biden 51, Trump 46 in mid-October poll

As tiring as it might get saying this, there were another two polls in the Keystone state today and both, again, had Biden around 50 percent and Trump in the mid-40s. The consistency across pollsters in Pennsylvania is what continues to be most noteworthy. The uncertainty in the commonwealth is less in the polls and more about turnout and any court challenges about the vote counting process there. 


Texas
(Trump 50, Biden 46 via RMG Research)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +1.45] 
No previous RMG poll [Current FHQ averages in Texas: Trump 48, Biden 46 (rounded)]

FHQ often talks about how often Biden tops 50 percent in the blue wall states that are in the Lean Biden category, but it is an indicator of sorts for the president in red state polling as well. Of the 67 surveys conducted thus far in the Lone Star state, Trump has hit or surpassed the majority mark in roughly a fifth of them. A little less than a quarter of those have fallen in the month of October, a pace similar to the rest of the year. Biden, on the other, hand has been there just once. It is that difference that helps to explain the narrow lead the president has maintained in Texas throughout 2020. The Lone Star state has been close all along, but like North Carolina on the other side of the partisan line for Biden, has been tipped in the president's favor.


Wyoming
(Trump 59, Biden 31 via University of Wyoming)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +39.52] 
No previous University of Wyoming poll [Current FHQ averages in Wyoming: Trump 68, Biden 29 (rounded)]

A rare update in Wyoming shows Trump coming in well under what one might expect in the Equality state for a Republican presidential nominee. However, even with a share of support under 60 percent and nearly ten points off his average at FHQ, the president is far out in front in the state occupying the last cell on the far right end of the Electoral College Spectrum below. The polling has been scant in the Cowboy state in 2020, but it collectively has both candidates within a point of their parties' presidential performance in the state in 2016.


Swayable (October battleground and assorted polls -- initial public wave of releases):
Alabama: Trump 56, Biden 37 [Current FHQ margin: Trump +19.75] 
Ohio: Trump 55, Biden 44 [Current FHQ margin: Trump +1.00] 
Indiana: Trump 53, Biden 42 [Current FHQ margin: Trump +11.36] 
Florida: Trump 51, Biden 46
Texas: Trump 49, Biden 48
Georgia: Biden 51, Trump 48
North Carolina: Biden 50, Trump 48
Pennsylvania: Biden 52, Trump 46
Arizona: Biden 52, Trump 44 [Current FHQ margin: Biden +2.98] 
Wisconsin: Biden 54, Trump 45 [Current FHQ margin: Biden +6.49] 
Virginia: Biden 55, Trump 44 [Current FHQ margin: Biden +11.79] 
Illinois: Biden 54, Trump 43 [Current FHQ margin: Biden +18.32] 
Michigan: Biden 59, Trump 40
New Jersey: Biden 62, Trump 38 [Current FHQ margin: Biden +20.09] 
California: Biden 62, Trump 35 [Current FHQ margin: Biden +29.36] 
New York: Biden 65, Trump 33 [Current FHQ margin: Biden +29.56] 

This is an interesting wave of polls from Swayable made all the more so by a couple of glaring standouts. Not only is the order not particularly in line with the established order of states at FHQ, but the world where Trump is ahead by 12 in Ohio and Biden is up 19 in neighboring Michigan is a strange world indeed. But a 31 point gap between the two in these surveys is a significant departure from the eight points that separated the two Rust Belt states in 2016 and the roughly equivalent space between them in the averages at FHQ. The picture here at FHQ is one of a uniform swing for Michigan and Ohio relative to each other from four years ago. Yet, the snapshot in the small sample Swayable polls is one big shifts but in opposite directions. Take these with a grain of salt. 

One other footnote here with respect to Ohio is that the average margin in the Buckeye state rounds up to Trump +1 right on the nose. But since the margin there is technically Trump +0.9985, the Buckeye state remains on the Watch List below, but only just barely. 




NOTE: 


The Electoral College Spectrum1
DC-3
VT-3
(6)2
NJ-14
(156)
WI-10
(253)
AK-3
(125)
TN-11
(60)
MA-11
(17)
OR-7
(163)
PA-203
(273 | 285)
MO-10
(122)
KY-8
(49)
MD-10
(27)
IL-20
(183)
NV-6
(279 | 265)
SC -9
(112)
SD-3
(41)
HI-4
(31)
ME-2
(185)
FL-29
(308 | 259)
MT-3
NE CD1-1
(103)
AL-9
(38)
NY-29
(60)
CO-9
(194)
AZ-11
(319 | 230)
KS-6
(99)
ID-4
(29)
CA-55
(115)
VA-13
(207)
NC-15
ME CD2-1
(335 | 219)
IN-11
(93)
AR-6
(25)
DE-3
(118)
NH-4
(211)
GA-16
(351 | 203)
NE-2
(82)
OK-7
(19)
WA-12
(130)
NM-5
(216)
IA-6
(187)
UT-6
(80)
ND-3
(12)
ME CD1-1
CT-7
(138)
MN-10
(226)
OH-18
(181)
MS-6
(74)
WV-5
(9)
RI-4
(142)
NE CD2-1
MI-16
(243)
TX-38
(163)
LA-8
(68)
WY-3
NE CD3-1
(4)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states plus the Pennsylvania), he would have 285 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trump's is on the right in bold italics.

3 Pennsylvania
 is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state. The tipping point cell is shaded in yellow to denote that and the font color is adjusted to attempt to reflect the category in which the state is.

All those surveys -- again, 37 polls in 21 states -- and there was little in the way of change that materialized at FHQ. The new Swayable poll out of the Land of Lincoln decreased the margin there enough to shift Illinois past both New Jersey and Oregon in the order, moving it closer to the partisan line. The same was true in neighboring Indiana, where the margin contract to the point that the Hoosier state traded spots in the order with Nebraska. Indiana is now the most competitive of the Strong Trump states. And the two university surveys out of the Granite state nudged New Hampshire back onto the Watch List a day after at least one outlier from ARG moved it off the list.

But that was it.  Friday came and went with a raft of new polling data that mostly confirmed the status quo in this race for the White House. 

4 days to go.


Where things stood at FHQ on October 30 (or close to it) in...
2016
2012
2008


--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State
Potential Switch
Georgia
from Toss Up Biden
to Toss Up Trump
Iowa
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Biden
Kansas
from Lean Trump
to Strong Trump
Nevada
from Toss Up Biden
to Lean Biden
New Hampshire
from Strong Biden
to Lean Biden
New Mexico
from Strong Biden
to Lean Biden
Ohio
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Biden
Pennsylvania
from Lean Biden
to Toss Up Biden
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was  too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.


--
Related posts:




Follow FHQ on TwitterInstagram and Facebook or subscribe by Email.

Tuesday, October 20, 2020

The Electoral College Map (10/20/20)

Update for October 20.


Changes (October 20)
StateBeforeAfter
Georgia
Toss Up Biden
Toss Up Trump
After a slow weekend of polling releases and a similar start to Monday, Tom Bevan at Real Clear Politics asked where the polls were on Twitter a day ago. As FHQ said over the weekend, it was the calm before the storm, and the showers began in earnest on Tuesday with 16 new polls in 13 states. States representing five of the six FHQ categories were represented, and as a result there was a pretty good cross-section of the race. [Only the Lean Trump category was not represented in this wave of new polling.] That particular cross-section continues to point toward a Democratic swing from election day 2016 to the polling picture in 2020. Right now, that shift stands at 6.84 points in the Democrats' direction.

And in the one state that made another change, the shift from 2016 to now is below average but not by much. Less than a week since it jumped the partisan line into Toss Up Biden territory, new polling has pushed Georgia back to the Trump side. But the marginal Biden lead before is an even more tenuous Trump advantage now. After the addition of the new surveys, the Peach state went from Biden +0.03 to Trump +0.007. 

It is tied in Georgia with two weeks to go, and that represents a nearly five point shift from election day four years ago. 

On to the polls... 


Polling Quick Hits:
Alabama
(Trump 55, Biden 38)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +19.96]
In the Yellowhammer state, Moore Information weighed in for the first time and found much what other surveys have collectively discovered throughout 2020: Trump maintains a sizable advantage, but one that is off the mark compared to his performance there in 2016. But the president coming in under his prior showing is only part of the equation. Biden, for his part, is ahead of Clinton's pace by nearly four points. And while this new poll matches the Biden number in the FHQ averages, Trump's share of support in the poll lags his own average level of support by more than three points. 


Arkansas
(Trump 58, Biden 34)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +24.62]
What a difference a few months makes. The weekend before FHQ went live with its first daily electoral college projection of the cycle, Hendrix College released a survey that not only had Trump with less than 50 percent in the Natural state, but ahead by just two points. What was an outlier then continues to look like an outlier now. And that is more true at this point given an update from Hendrix that shows Trump expanding that June edge by 12 times. Contrary to the earlier Hendrix poll this one and the other surveys from other pollsters that have been in the field there have had the president in a mid-50s to mid-60s range while Biden has more often been in the 30s. Compared to Alabama, however, the swing in Arkansas has been minimal. Trump is just half point behind where he was in 2016 and the former vice president is a shade under two points above Clinton's performance there.


Arizona
(Biden 47, Trump 42)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +3.07]
Data Orbital conducted a survey in the Grand Canyon state during the first week in October and had Biden out in front by five points. The margin is the same now as both candidates have tacked on an additional point of support in that time. That brings Biden's share in the series closer to his average share of support in the FHQ averages, but the firm continues to be less optimistic about Trump's support than some other pollsters. Arizona is close, but it is polls like these that keep the vice president steadily ahead there.


Colorado
(Biden 51, Trump 43)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +12.69]
This RMG Research survey -- its first in the state in calendar 2020 -- is now the third poll released out of Colorado over the last two days, and although it finds Biden in good shape, it has the race the closest of the set. Most of that difference is on the Trump side. The president is at his peak level in Centennial state polling here while Biden splits the difference between where he was in yesterday's pair of polls. Being below 50 percent in the YouGov poll was unusual in view of the other polls of the state this year, but even a 51 percent share here is on the lower end of the former vice president's range in recent Colorado surveys. 


Florida
(Biden 48, Trump 47)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +3.28]
The Sunshine state has been in the Biden +3 area for a while now at FHQ, but polls like the new University of North Florida may provide some evidence that that is changing. In early October the university pollster had the Democratic nominee ahead by six with more than 50 percent of the respondents backing him. What is of note here, however, is that within the UNF series, this poll closely mirrors the poll conducted in Florida in February. FHQ spent some time during the late summer talking about regression to, if not the mean, then the pre-Biden surge period before June and July. This may just be some evidence of such a regression or it could more simply be a manifestation of partisan coming home as election day nears. Regardless, Florida, like Arizona, is close but consistently tipped in the former vice president's direction.  


Georgia
(Trump 48, Biden 47 via Emerson | Trump 45, Biden 45 via Siena/NYT Upshot)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +0.007]
Again, Georgia may have flipped back to Toss Up Trump based on the addition of these two polls, but FHQ will say what we said when the Peach state hopped the partisan line onto Biden turf last week: as long as Georgia remains this close, it does not matter which side of the partisan line it is. The story is that Georgia is close at all. Well, as was mentioned above, it was close before and is even closer now even with the change. This is the first time Emerson has been in the field in the Peach state in calendar 2020, but the update from Siena showed no change over its September survey. And together neither did much to dislodge the state from its perch as the most competitive state on the board. 


Kentucky
(Trump 56, Biden 39)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +18.54]
Kentucky is the third of the Strong Trump states with new surveys out today, and the Mason-Dixon results closely resemble the 57-38 lead Trump currently holds in the FHQ averages. It is not close in the Bluegrass state either in the averages here or in this first time survey of Kentucky. However, it lends even more credence to the dynamic cited above. Even in reliably red states Trump is well off his 2016 mark. And this is more acute in Kentucky than it was in Alabama and (especially) Arkansas. The swing in the Bluegrass state is approaching twice the size of the overall average shift across the country. Trump is more than six points behind his showing there four years ago, and Biden is more than five points ahead of where Clinton was in November 2016.


Minnesota
(Biden 49, Trump 44)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +8.30]
The Change Research poll of Minnesota likely voters is another of the first timers in today's batch of polls. And while there is no natural comparison, one can say that this is the closest any poll of the Land of 10,000 Lakes has found the race there since early September in the immediate aftermath of convention season. But since that point -- in all of the September and October polling -- Biden has been at or over 50 percent in eight of 15 polls. This one finds the Democratic nominee below the majority level, but at a point that is well within his range in the state. Trump, on the other hand is back at his peak of support in post-convention polling in this survey. Minnesota may or may not be narrowing, but it will take more polls like this to do, but to do so in the remaining 14 days. That is a steep climb in a state that has been reliably in the Biden column.


North Carolina
(Biden 50, Trump 48 via ABC/WaPo | Biden 51, Trump 47 via East Carolina University)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +1.79]
In North Carolina, the thing that grabs the eye in two similar looking surveys is that Biden is at or above 50 percent in both of them. That is happening more frequently in recent Tar Heel state polling. October has seen the state surveyed 17 times and of that group, eight have had Biden above the majority mark. If one drops that just a point to 49 percent, Biden has been at or over that mark in 12 of 17 polls. And although the race is close in North Carolina, it must be troubling to the Trump campaign that the state has regularly been tilted in the former vice president's direction and furthermore that he is closing in on 50 percent there. Yes, Biden's average share at FHQ rounds up to just 48 now, but that is trending upward Yet, so has Trump's, just at a lesser clip as undecideds come off the board.


Ohio
(Biden 48, Trump 47)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +0.53]
It may get old saying this about the states that have continued to hover around the partisan line this fall, but Ohio is also close. And the new Pulse Opinion Research results in a survey of the Buckeye state demonstrate that nicely. Furthermore, the race has tightened through the lens of the Pulse series of polls. Biden held four point leads in polls in both July and September and that advantage has now dissipated. But this survey brings Pulse in line with other recent surveys in the state. In fact, it exactly matches the Quinnipiac poll of the state from last week among the major party candidates. 


Pennsylvania
(Biden 49, Trump 45 via Ipsos | Biden 50, Trump 47 via Pulse Opinion Research)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +5.38]
The two new additions to Pennsylvania polling today are similar in a few ways. First, both find Biden's advantage over the president in the commonwealth below his graduated weighted average margin there. However, both also have the former vice president hovering right around his average share of support in the Keystone state, meaning that it is the Trump data that is different. Indeed, the president is above his 44 percent (rounded) share of support at FHQ in both surveys, but certainly within his range in recent polling.  Looking at each poll on its own, the Ipsos survey continues a series where Biden continues to oscillate in the 49-51 percent range while Trump has most often been stuck at 45 percent. In other words, there is not much change here. But that is not the case with the Pulse survey. In the last poll from the firm, the two major party candidates were tied in August. But rather than attribute that to some Biden surge in the time since, it is more likely that the August survey was an outlier. This latest poll more closely resembles the July Pulse poll when Biden led 51-46.

 
Texas
(Biden 47, Trump 46)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +1.62]
Texas continues to look like the North Carolina of the Trump coalition of states. And the latest Data for Progress survey of the Lone Star state dose nothing to really change that. As in the Tar Heel state, the underdog occasionally leads and that is true of this DfP poll. Yet, this survey represents a narrowing of the race for the 38 electoral votes in Texas. The early October poll from DfP had Biden up two. While Biden held his ground at 47 percent, Trump rose a point to 46 percent. Alternatively, this is just plain old survey variability. Regardless, Texas continues to favor Trump.


Wisconsin
(Biden 51, Trump 45)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +6.20]
The other Ipsos survey on the day -- a leftover from late Monday -- comes from Wisconsin. But like the Pennsylvania survey from Ipsos, this update to a poll from last week does not show any real change over that time. Biden lost a point, but continues to consistently be around 50 percent in the series while Trump trails often in the mid-40s. That just does not stray that much from the 50-43 advantage Biden has in the FHQ averages. 


The Electoral College Spectrum1
DC-3
VT-3
(6)2
IL-20
(162)
WI-10
(253)
AK-3
(125)
TN-11
(60)
MA-11
(17)
OR-7
(169)
PA-203
(273 | 285)
MO-10
(122)
KY-8
(49)
MD-10
(27)
NJ-14
(183)
NV-6
(279 | 265)
SC -9
(112)
AL-9
(41)
HI-4
(31)
ME-2
(185)
FL-29
(308 | 259)
KS-6
(103)
SD-3
(32)
CA-55
(86)
CO-9
(194)
AZ-11
(319 | 230)
NE CD1-1
MT-3
(97)
ID-4
(29)
NYI-29
(115)
VA-13
(207)
NC-15
ME CD2-1
(335 | 219)
NE-2
(93)
AR-6
(25)
DE-3
(118)
NH-4
(211)
GA-16
(203)
IN-11
(91)
OK-7
(19)
WA-12
(130)
NM-5
(216)
OH-18
(187)
UT-6
(80)
ND-3
(12)
ME CD1-1
CT-7
(138)
MN-10
(226)
IA-6
(169)
MS-6
(74)
WV-5
(9)
RI-4
(142)
NE CD2-1
MI-16
(243)
TX-38
(163)
LA-8
(68)
WY-3
NE CD3-1
(4)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states plus the Pennsylvania), he would have 285 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trump's is on the right in bold italics.

3 Pennsylvania
 is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state. The tipping point cell is shaded in yellow to denote that and the font color is adjusted to attempt to reflect the category in which the state is.

Tuesday was another day where there may have been the beginnings of some evidence that Trump is closing the gap in the waning days of the 2020 presidential campaign. And while there may be some truth to that it was often subtle and often masked by a continued steadiness in polls that represent an update to a series of previous polls. From pollster to pollster, there may be some changes, but within-pollster effects are minimal at best. This ends up being another day, then, in which the president did not make up any real ground on the Democratic nominee. And that is even with Georgia coming back over the partisan line into his column. 

It is that Georgia move that provides the only changes for the day. The Peach state turned pink on the map and Spectrum and flipped its possible switch on the Watch List below. But again, that is to be expected. As close as Georgia is, it has the greatest potential to change hands of any state on the board. 

But with two weeks to go, Trump still has that more than five point gap to make up in order to reclaim North Carolina, Arizona, Florida and Pennsylvania to get to 270 electoral votes. And if that follows the order on the Spectrum above, then Trump would likely flip Nevada in the process as well. But at this last date, that is a tall task. Not impossible, but tough.


Where things stood at FHQ on October 20 (or close to it) in...
2016
2012
2008


--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State
Potential Switch
Georgia
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Biden
New Hampshire
from Strong Biden
to Lean Biden
New Mexico
from Strong Biden
to Lean Biden
Ohio
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Biden
Pennsylvania
from Lean Biden
to Toss Up Biden
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was  too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.


--
Related posts:




Follow FHQ on TwitterInstagram and Facebook or subscribe by Email.

Thursday, September 24, 2020

The Electoral College Map (9/24/20)

Update for September 24.


FHQ has said this a number of times this week, but there was a lot to look at today on the polling front: 19 surveys from 12 states. It was a mixture of the six core battleground states (sans Florida), the four Trump toss up states, and then a handful of states that are further out on the ends of the Spectrum that help to calibrate the average swing FHQ has been keeping tabs on from election day 2016 to 2020 general election polling. Currently sitting at Democrats +7.40, that average swing has ticked down a few notches in recent weeks. Once it was approaching eight points, but it topped out and has been receding some since Biden's summer surge that has subsequently regressed to the springtime mean. But that is another way -- the trajectory of average swing across states -- to measure narrowing in this race. So far, it suggests some tightening but not a whole lot.

On to the polls...


Polling Quick Hits:
Arizona
(Biden 49, Trump 47)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +3.47]
Data Orbital was last in the field in Arizona in June and little has changed. Biden continues to claim a two point advantage, but both candidates have peeled off some support from undecided/other in those three months. And that is not unexpected as election day nears. However, this survey does overstate both candidates' support relative to their established averages here at FHQ. That, too, should be expected on some level as election day grows closer.


Georgia
(Trump 45, Biden 45 via Siena/NYT Upshot | Trump 46, Biden 46 via Data for Progress)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +0.40]
Over in the Peach state, both Siena and Data for Progress were in the field there for the first time in calendar 2020. And both found a tied race. That is now three poll releases over the last three days to have the race for the Georgia's 16 electoral votes knotted at somewhere in the mid-40s. The average margin continues to reflect that. FHQ now has basically tied at 46.


Iowa
(Biden 45, Trump 42 via Siena/NYT Upshot | Trump 49, Biden 46 via Monmouth)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +0.36]
The polling in Iowa may be a bit more variable overall, but the bottom line is the same as it is in Georgia. Trump retains a slim advantage but it is tempered by the fact that the Siena and Monmouth polls released today showed three point leads. But it was one for each candidate. Biden was the more consistent of the two across both surveys, but even averaging the two polls comes out to a tie at 46 (rounded), which is in line with where the FHQ weighted averages currently have the contest in Iowa.


Kansas
(Trump 49, Biden 45)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +7.36]
The aim at Data for Progress may have been to survey the Senate landscape in the four states covered today, but it is a bonus to get the presidential numbers in typically reliably red states like Kansas (and Kentucky below). Again that helps to better calibrate the extent of the swing from 2016 to 2020. This poll represents the closest the race has appeared in the Sunflower state's limited polling in 2020 and also Biden's peak there. With this survey incorporated, Biden is overperforming Clinton by a little more than six points while Trump is lagging an almost equivalent amount behind his 2016 pace in Kansas. However, this survey is more consistent with the FHQ average on Trump's share than Biden's. The former vice president is running about three points ahead of his average. Kansas will stay red in 2020, but it has drawn closer in the last four years, only the gap has closer at a rate greater than the average swing.


Kentucky
(Trump 56, Biden 38)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +17.21]
The other deep red state poll from Data for Progress was conducted in Kentucky. There really were not any surprises here. Yes, the swing toward the Democrats from 2016 to 2020 is above average and nearly the same 12 points, but this survey is much more in line with the established average at FHQ: 55-38, Trump. No poll that on target is going to have much of an impact on the average. And this one did not.


Michigan
(Trump 47, Biden 46 via Trafalgar Group | Biden 51, Trump 45 via YouGov | Biden 50, Trump 44 via Data for Progress)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +7.23]
One of these Michigan polls released today does not look like the others. One of these polls is more divergent from the established average margin there than the others. And it is not that Trafalgar missed on one candidate's share and was consistent on the other. It had Trump five points ahead of his average and Biden three points behind his. But then again, this poll is in line with the two other Trafalgar polls in Michigan. The story there is stability even if that series strays from where other pollsters have the race there. Both candidates were above their average shares in the Great Lakes state in the other two polls, but again, one should expect that as election day approaches and undecideds come off the board. But Biden gained more than Trump did -- twice as much -- in the YouGov poll over the firm's last collaboration with the University of Wisconsin at the beginning of August.


Ohio
(Biden 48, Trump 47)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +0.26]
The same change that marked the story in the Michigan series from YouGov above is true of the latest Quinnipiac survey of Ohio. Biden continued to cling to a one point edge -- just as was the case in June Q-poll -- but both candidates saw their share of support modestly increase over the last three months. As is the case in both Georgia and Iowa, FHQ has the battle for the 18 electoral votes in the Buckeye state tied at 46. So this poll has both out in front of their average share but Biden by marginally more. The bottom line in Ohio is that it is close, representing a nearly eight point swing from 2016. And again, if the discussion about which states are the most competitive on election day includes Ohio, then Biden is in reasonably good shape unless the overall swing is not uniform everywhere.


Oklahoma
(Trump 55, Biden 33)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +22.11]
What can one say about the situation in Oklahoma? Well, it remains comfortably red for the president. Furthermore, the margin in the Amber Integrated survey is consistent with the FHQ average margin in the Sooner state. Both candidates' support lagged in this poll behind the average share each has in the averages, but neither was by more than two points. This one is par for the course in Oklahoma. It is a safe state for Trump, but one where the swing has been well above average, nearly double it in fact.


Pennsylvania
(Biden 49, Trump 45 via YouGov | Biden 48, Trump 42 via Franklin & Marshall | Biden 50, Trump 45 via CPEC)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +5.08]
The trio of surveys out of the Keystone state today are all not far off of the averages here at FHQ, but there are some interesting notes in the two series from Franklin & Marshall and YouGov. The former has seen Biden's share tick down each month over the last three months, but Trump has remained stationary. And that is not the sort of trajectory that changes things around here all that much. It counters any notion of a narrowing race in Pennsylvania. But the YouGov trend line is different. Unlike the change across the YouGov series in Michigan, Biden lost some ground, but Trump gained, closing the gap, but not to a point as close as the one point Biden lead in the first poll in the sequence in February. This, then, is not a case of regressing to the springtime mean, not completely anyway.


Texas
(Trump 46, Biden 43 via Siena/NYT Upshot | Trump 50, Biden 45 via Quinnipiac)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +1.19]
In the Lone Star state, Siena was in the field for their first poll of the season and found Trump up by a handful of points. Compared to the established averages there, both candidates run behind them in this survey, but Biden more than the president. But the Trump number is more in line with his range in recent polls. Biden's is not, and it is attributable to the more inflated undecided/other shares in this survey. Quinnipiac, on the other hand has now conducted three surveys in Texas in calendar 2020, but this is the first with a likely voter screen. Whereas the earlier registered polls showed a one point lead in one direction or the other, the transition to a likely voter sample has benefited Trump, pushing the president to 50 percent while Biden hovered around where he has been in the previous surveys. Texas remains close, but these polls pushed it off the Watch List below.


Virginia
(Biden 48, Trump 43)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +10.61]
The Christopher Newport surveys of Virginia in 2016 were all over the place, sometimes showing Clinton way up, but almost always with other candidates -- those not from either of the two major parties -- pulling in a hefty level of support that did not materialize on election day. That is not exactly the case with the first of the university's polls in 2020, but this one does stand out from all of the other surveys conducted in the commonwealth this year. And it is all about the margin. No poll of the Old Dominion has had Biden up by anything less than double digits since February. No poll has had Trump as high as 43 all year. And it has been since February that Biden has been below 50 percent in a Virginia poll. The tide may be turning there, or it could be that this poll is an outlier.


Wisconsin
(Biden 50, Trump 46)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +6.41]
Finally, the last of the blue wall YouGov polls in Wisconsin represents the latest in a series but also a transition from registered to likely voters. The two point Biden lead in February grew to six points in August, but has contracted in the month since with the switch to a likely voter screen. Both candidates gained in that time, but what Trump added was three times that of Biden's gain. But compared to other recent likely voter surveys of the Badger state, this one has Trump well ahead of where he has been elsewhere (and about three points ahead of his FHQ average). Biden crests above his average share as well, but only by a fraction of a point.


NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2020 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.


The Electoral College Spectrum1
DC-3
MA-11
(14)2
CT-7
(162)
WI-10
(253)
AK-3
(125)
AL-9
(60)
HI-4
(18)
NJ-14
(176)
PA-203
(273 | 285)
SC-9
(122)
IN-11
(51)
CA-55
(73)
OR-7
(183)
NV-6
(279 | 265)
MO-10
(113)
UT-6
(40)
VT-3
(76)
NM-5
(188)
AZ-11
(290 | 259)
KS-6
(103)
KY-8
(34)
NY-29
(105)
ME-2
(190)
FL-29
ME CD2-1
(320 | 248)
MT-3
NE CD1-1
(97)
ID-4
(26)
WA-12
(117)
CO-9
(199)
NC-15
(335 | 218)
LA-8
(93)
ND-3
(22)
MD-10
ME CD1-1
(128)
VA-13
(212)
OH-18
(203)
MS-6
(85)
SD-3
(19)
IL-20
(148)
MN-10
(222)
IA-6
(185)
AR-6
(79)
OK-7
(16)
RI-4
(152)
MI-16
(238)
GA-16
(179)
NE-2
(73)
WV-5
(9)
DE-3
(155)
NE CD2-1
NH-4
(243)
TX-38
(163)
TN-11
(71)
WY-3
NE CD3-1
(4)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states plus the Pennsylvania), he would have 285 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trump's is on the right in bold italics.

3 Pennsylvania
 is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state. The tipping point cell is shaded in yellow to denote that and the font color is adjusted to attempt to reflect the category in which the state is.

Again, there was a lot to look at today and a fair number of changes to boot. No, none of those changes were to the colors any states affected are shaded on the map, but there was more shuffling on the Electoral College Spectrum and a couple of changes to the Watch List. Take the latter first. Texas moved off the list but only barely while Virginia on the weight of that outlier CNU poll pushed under the Biden +11 mark and thus inched within a fraction of a point of the 10 point line separating the Strong and Lean Biden categories.

Working from left to right on the Spectrum, Colorado and Virginia swapped spots with Virginia moving closer to the partisan line. Wisconsin moved back to the most competitive middle column, trading spots again with New Hampshire. One should also get used to constant shuffling among the three states that are Trump's first line of defense up against the partisan line. Georgia, Iowa and Ohio are just that close to one another. Today, Georgia and Iowa switched places and it was the Hawkeye state that shifted closer to the partisan line. Finally, the new poll of Kansas -- the smallest margin there are year -- moved the Sunflower state past Montana toward the partisan line separating the Trump states from Biden states. Overall, however, Pennsylvania remained in the middle of it all, the tipping point state five points out of Trump's grasp at the moment.



Where things stood at FHQ on September 24 (or close to it) in...
2016
2012
2008



--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State
Potential Switch
Arkansas
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Georgia
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Biden
Iowa
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Biden
Louisiana
from Lean Trump
to Strong Trump
Mississippi
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Nevada
from Toss Up Biden
to Lean Biden
Ohio
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Biden
Pennsylvania
from Lean Biden
to Toss Up Biden
South Carolina
from Lean Trump
to Toss Up Trump
Virginia
from Strong Biden
to Lean Biden
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was  too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.


--
Related posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/23/20)

The Electoral College Map (9/22/20)

The Electoral College Map (9/21/20)


Follow FHQ on TwitterInstagram and Facebook or subscribe by Email.