Showing posts with label Alabama. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Alabama. Show all posts

Friday, October 30, 2020

The Electoral College Map (10/30/20)

Update for October 30.


The final full work week prior to election day next Tuesday came to a close Friday laden with another [totally expected] round poll releases. In all, there were 37 new surveys added from 21 states, fueled by a 16 state wave from Swayable that offered some interesting results that were not necessarily in sync with what has been established in state-level polls across the country in 2020. Across the full set of the day's surveys five of the FHQ categories were represented with only the small group of Lean Trump states left out. 

But as this race eases into the weekend before voting concludes next week, things are probably pretty close to locked in at FHQ. As the days dwindle, movement in the order will likely be confined to the states on the Watch List below. And even among that group of eight states -- now that New Hampshire has rejoined the List -- only three are within a fraction of a point of shifting over the partisan line and altering the overall electoral vote tally. The trajectory of recent polling suggests that Georgia is likely to stay on the Biden side of the line and that Iowa is closing, pushing toward the former vice president as well. Ohio, on the other hand, has moved in the opposite direction toward the periphery of even being included on the Watch List. 

Aside from those three and barring an absolute flood of polling from North Carolina and/or Texas (and Maine's second congressional district for that matter), those states are also likely to stay just where they are at FHQ. Both have proven to be have been consistently close but persistently on their respective sides of the partisan line. That does not mean, however, that either is destined to fall in their projected categories come Tuesday (or in the following few days), but rather that each is within a range where a polling error of two or three points could easily place either in the other candidate's coalition of states once the dust has settled.

On to the polls...


Polling Quick Hits:
Connecticut
(Biden 51, Trump 26 via Sacred Heart University)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +23.99] 
Biden 47, Trump 34 in April poll

Clearly Sacred Heart does not aggressively push their undecideds. There is still a 20 percent chunk of respondents in this latest survey that fall in that category. But even with such a high share of undecideds, Biden still has a 25 point advantage over Trump in a state that will be blue when the votes come in. 


Florida
(Biden 52, Trump 45 via Public Policy Polling | Biden 50, Trump 47 via Harris Poll)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +3.08] 
Public Policy Polling: Biden 48, Trump 44 in August poll
Harris: Biden 48, Trump 48 in mid-October poll

FHQ mentioned this yesterday and will repeat it today given these two new surveys out of the Sunshine state: The race in Florida may in fact be narrowing, but Biden continues to hit 50 percent in polls at a higher clip as election day approaches than he did in earlier times. Both updates also shifted in the Democratic nominee's favor as well. 


Georgia
(Trump 48, Biden 47 via Landmark Communications)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +0.41] 
Trump 49, Biden 45 in poll last week

The Landmark Communications series of polls in the Peach state this year has tended to favor the president with only one exception: the poll in the field the day after the first presidential debate at the end of September. Biden led that survey by a couple of points, but has consistently trailed Trump in the series. Yet, the president's edge shrunk in the last week since the previous Landmark survey. Although the poll shows Trump in the lead, the movement toward Biden is consistent with other recent polling of Georgia.


Kentucky
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +18.09] 
No previous Bluegrass poll

That the president had but 52 percent of respondents backing him in this Bluegrass C&T  poll is largely attributable to the nearly 10 percent of the sample that remained undecided. Like Connecticut, however, Kentucky is a safe state, but one that tips in Trump's direction. But it should be noted that this matches the lowest share of support the president has had in any Kentucky poll all year. But Biden has been fairly stable in the upper 30s in recent polls and the Bluegrass state will be red on Tuesday or soon thereafter.


Michigan
(Biden 54, Trump 44 via Public Policy Polling | Biden 51, Trump 44 via RMG Research | Biden 54, Trump 41 via Kiaer Research)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +7.43] 
Public Policy Polling: Biden 50, Trump 43 in poll last week
RMG Research: Biden 48, Trump 42 in mid-October poll
Kiaer Research: Biden 50, Trump 35 in June poll

The big thing in Michigan at this late date is that after weeks of being on the cusp of cresting above 50 percent in the FHQ averages, Biden has finally done so after another batch surveys on Friday showing the former vice president over that threshold across the board. And with the exception of the Kiaer survey, the Democratic nominee's edge has increased from poll-to-poll as well. Even in that survey, Biden maintains a double digit lead.


Nevada
(Biden 50, Trump 44 via Gravis Marketing)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +4.65] 
No previous Gravis poll [Current FHQ averages in Nevada: Biden 49, Trump 44 (rounded)]

While this Gravis poll of the Silver state basically falls right on the established FHQ average margin in Nevada, it did bump the margin up toward the five point line that separates the Toss Up and Lean categories. Nevada remains a toss up under the FHQ averages, but that may be partially explained by the general lack of polling overall in the state. There have been just 21 surveys of Silver state voters, but Biden has been hovering around 50 percent much of the time. The former vice president has hit or surpassed that threshold eight time with half coming during the month of October alone. 


New Hampshire
(Biden 53, Trump 45 via University of New Hampshire | Biden 52, Trump 44 via Saint Anselm)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +10.81] 
UNH: Biden 55, Trump 43 in mid-October poll
Saint Anselm: Biden 53, Trump 41 in early October poll

While much of the new polling today shifted in Biden's direction, the latest updates from Granite state university polls saw some contraction in the margins in both over the last surveys in the series. Despite that decrease, however, the president continues to lag overall by more than ten points in a state that was decided by less than a point four years ago. Trump did make up some ground, pulling out of the low 40s in both polls. He currently sits at 42 percent in the FHQ averages.


North Carolina
(Trump 48, Biden 47 via Pulse Opinion Research | Biden 51, Trump 46 via Harris Poll | Trump 48, Biden 46 via Cardinal Point Analytics | Biden 50, Trump 48 via East Carolina | Biden 52, Trump 46 via Marist)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +1.85] 
Pulse Opinion Research: Trump 49, Biden 48 in mid-October poll
No previous Harris poll
Cardinal Point: Trump 48, Biden 47 in July poll
ECU: Biden 51, Trump 47 in mid-October poll
Marist: Biden 51, Trump 44 in July poll

The one take home message from another slew of polling out of the Tar Heel state is that North Carolina is close. That is not news. But on top of that, there is little change across any of these polls from their prior times in the field in the state. It was movement of a point for either candidate and no more than a two point swing in any of them. Of course, a two point swing can matter in a tightly contested state. But there was a two point swing in each candidate's favor.


Pennsylvania
(Biden 52, Trump 45 via Public Policy Polling | Biden 51, Trump 46 via Harris Poll)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +5.43] 
Public Policy Polling: Biden 51, Trump 46 in poll last week
Harris: Biden 51, Trump 46 in mid-October poll

As tiring as it might get saying this, there were another two polls in the Keystone state today and both, again, had Biden around 50 percent and Trump in the mid-40s. The consistency across pollsters in Pennsylvania is what continues to be most noteworthy. The uncertainty in the commonwealth is less in the polls and more about turnout and any court challenges about the vote counting process there. 


Texas
(Trump 50, Biden 46 via RMG Research)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +1.45] 
No previous RMG poll [Current FHQ averages in Texas: Trump 48, Biden 46 (rounded)]

FHQ often talks about how often Biden tops 50 percent in the blue wall states that are in the Lean Biden category, but it is an indicator of sorts for the president in red state polling as well. Of the 67 surveys conducted thus far in the Lone Star state, Trump has hit or surpassed the majority mark in roughly a fifth of them. A little less than a quarter of those have fallen in the month of October, a pace similar to the rest of the year. Biden, on the other, hand has been there just once. It is that difference that helps to explain the narrow lead the president has maintained in Texas throughout 2020. The Lone Star state has been close all along, but like North Carolina on the other side of the partisan line for Biden, has been tipped in the president's favor.


Wyoming
(Trump 59, Biden 31 via University of Wyoming)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +39.52] 
No previous University of Wyoming poll [Current FHQ averages in Wyoming: Trump 68, Biden 29 (rounded)]

A rare update in Wyoming shows Trump coming in well under what one might expect in the Equality state for a Republican presidential nominee. However, even with a share of support under 60 percent and nearly ten points off his average at FHQ, the president is far out in front in the state occupying the last cell on the far right end of the Electoral College Spectrum below. The polling has been scant in the Cowboy state in 2020, but it collectively has both candidates within a point of their parties' presidential performance in the state in 2016.


Swayable (October battleground and assorted polls -- initial public wave of releases):
Alabama: Trump 56, Biden 37 [Current FHQ margin: Trump +19.75] 
Ohio: Trump 55, Biden 44 [Current FHQ margin: Trump +1.00] 
Indiana: Trump 53, Biden 42 [Current FHQ margin: Trump +11.36] 
Florida: Trump 51, Biden 46
Texas: Trump 49, Biden 48
Georgia: Biden 51, Trump 48
North Carolina: Biden 50, Trump 48
Pennsylvania: Biden 52, Trump 46
Arizona: Biden 52, Trump 44 [Current FHQ margin: Biden +2.98] 
Wisconsin: Biden 54, Trump 45 [Current FHQ margin: Biden +6.49] 
Virginia: Biden 55, Trump 44 [Current FHQ margin: Biden +11.79] 
Illinois: Biden 54, Trump 43 [Current FHQ margin: Biden +18.32] 
Michigan: Biden 59, Trump 40
New Jersey: Biden 62, Trump 38 [Current FHQ margin: Biden +20.09] 
California: Biden 62, Trump 35 [Current FHQ margin: Biden +29.36] 
New York: Biden 65, Trump 33 [Current FHQ margin: Biden +29.56] 

This is an interesting wave of polls from Swayable made all the more so by a couple of glaring standouts. Not only is the order not particularly in line with the established order of states at FHQ, but the world where Trump is ahead by 12 in Ohio and Biden is up 19 in neighboring Michigan is a strange world indeed. But a 31 point gap between the two in these surveys is a significant departure from the eight points that separated the two Rust Belt states in 2016 and the roughly equivalent space between them in the averages at FHQ. The picture here at FHQ is one of a uniform swing for Michigan and Ohio relative to each other from four years ago. Yet, the snapshot in the small sample Swayable polls is one big shifts but in opposite directions. Take these with a grain of salt. 

One other footnote here with respect to Ohio is that the average margin in the Buckeye state rounds up to Trump +1 right on the nose. But since the margin there is technically Trump +0.9985, the Buckeye state remains on the Watch List below, but only just barely. 




NOTE: 


The Electoral College Spectrum1
DC-3
VT-3
(6)2
NJ-14
(156)
WI-10
(253)
AK-3
(125)
TN-11
(60)
MA-11
(17)
OR-7
(163)
PA-203
(273 | 285)
MO-10
(122)
KY-8
(49)
MD-10
(27)
IL-20
(183)
NV-6
(279 | 265)
SC -9
(112)
SD-3
(41)
HI-4
(31)
ME-2
(185)
FL-29
(308 | 259)
MT-3
NE CD1-1
(103)
AL-9
(38)
NY-29
(60)
CO-9
(194)
AZ-11
(319 | 230)
KS-6
(99)
ID-4
(29)
CA-55
(115)
VA-13
(207)
NC-15
ME CD2-1
(335 | 219)
IN-11
(93)
AR-6
(25)
DE-3
(118)
NH-4
(211)
GA-16
(351 | 203)
NE-2
(82)
OK-7
(19)
WA-12
(130)
NM-5
(216)
IA-6
(187)
UT-6
(80)
ND-3
(12)
ME CD1-1
CT-7
(138)
MN-10
(226)
OH-18
(181)
MS-6
(74)
WV-5
(9)
RI-4
(142)
NE CD2-1
MI-16
(243)
TX-38
(163)
LA-8
(68)
WY-3
NE CD3-1
(4)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states plus the Pennsylvania), he would have 285 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trump's is on the right in bold italics.

3 Pennsylvania
 is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state. The tipping point cell is shaded in yellow to denote that and the font color is adjusted to attempt to reflect the category in which the state is.

All those surveys -- again, 37 polls in 21 states -- and there was little in the way of change that materialized at FHQ. The new Swayable poll out of the Land of Lincoln decreased the margin there enough to shift Illinois past both New Jersey and Oregon in the order, moving it closer to the partisan line. The same was true in neighboring Indiana, where the margin contract to the point that the Hoosier state traded spots in the order with Nebraska. Indiana is now the most competitive of the Strong Trump states. And the two university surveys out of the Granite state nudged New Hampshire back onto the Watch List a day after at least one outlier from ARG moved it off the list.

But that was it.  Friday came and went with a raft of new polling data that mostly confirmed the status quo in this race for the White House. 

4 days to go.


Where things stood at FHQ on October 30 (or close to it) in...
2016
2012
2008


--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State
Potential Switch
Georgia
from Toss Up Biden
to Toss Up Trump
Iowa
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Biden
Kansas
from Lean Trump
to Strong Trump
Nevada
from Toss Up Biden
to Lean Biden
New Hampshire
from Strong Biden
to Lean Biden
New Mexico
from Strong Biden
to Lean Biden
Ohio
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Biden
Pennsylvania
from Lean Biden
to Toss Up Biden
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was  too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.


--
Related posts:




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Thursday, October 29, 2020

The Electoral College Map (10/29/20)

Update for October 29.


Well, it is too bad there were not any new polls on the Thursday before the election concludes next week. Oh wait.

With five days left in the general election campaign there was actually a flood of new state-level polling data. Here at FHQ 34 surveys from 18 states spanning all six categories were released since the last update to the projection yesterday. In two-thirds of those states, the additional polls moved the FHQ average margins in Joe Biden's direction. And that, too, encompassed states in all six categories. But President Trump was not without a silver lining in the face of all that. Margins in both Arizona and Minnesota pushed toward him on the day. However, despite another day of subtle movements, little changed in the meta-analysis. It was another date marked off the calendar in which Trump failed to meaningfully cut into Biden's advantage across the country.

On to the polls...


Polling Quick Hits:
Alabama
(Trump 58, Biden 39 via AU-Montgomery )
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +19.88] 
Trump 57, Biden 37 in September poll
If this was a day that mostly maintained the status quo in the race for the White House, then the latest update from Auburn University in Montgomery is a solid lead off example. There not only was not much movement from September to now in the series, but the new poll closely tracks with the 58-38 (rounded) edge Trump has in the Yellowhammer state. Overall, that is enough to make Alabama safe for the president next week, but it is in line to shift toward the Democrats by about eight points since 2016.


Alaska
(Trump 52, Biden 43 via Gravis Marketing)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +6.34] 
No previous Gravis poll [Current FHQ averages in Alaska: Trump 50, Biden 44 (rounded)]
Recall that Alaska was a state where Trump barely topped 50 percent in 2016. That has been true in most polls in 2020, including this new Gravis survey of the Last Frontier. All that means that Trump has not exactly built on his win there four years ago, but he also has not lost much. Biden, on the other hand, more than seven points ahead of Clinton's 2016 share of support on election day in 2020 polling. That is enough to make Alaska more competitive, but not enough to get in the likely range of what the former vice president should expect on a really good night next Tuesday.


Arizona
(Trump 49, Biden 45 via Pulse Opinion Research | Biden 47, Trump 47 via Ipsos)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +2.90] 
Pulse Opinion Research: Biden 48, Trump 46 in last poll
Ipsos: Biden 50, Trump 46 in last poll
If there was one state today where that broke with the status quo, it was Arizona. There was movement in the Grand Canyon state in Trump's direction in both updates released in the state today. The Pulse update to a recent poll was reminiscent of the InsiderAdvantage survey released out of Pennsylvania earlier this week. Both saw a fairly dramatic shift, poll-to-poll, from Biden to the president. And neither really matches the movement -- or lack thereof -- in October polling. Although the Pulse survey is astray of the 48-45 (rounded) advantage Biden has in Arizona at FHQ, it has Trump at the top of his range and Biden at the bottom of his. 


Florida
(Biden 50, Trump 46 via Monmouth | Biden 51, Trump 47 via Marist | Biden 45, Trump 42 via Quinnipiac | Biden 48, Trump 47 via Ipsos)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +3.14] 
Monmouth: Biden 49, Trump 46 in September poll
Marist: Biden 48, Trump 48 in September poll
Quinnipiac: Biden 51, Trump 40 in early October poll
Ipsos: Biden 51, Trump 46 in poll last week
[NOTE: Using data from the high turnout Monmouth model -- a 51-45 Biden advantage -- would have increased the average FHQ margin to Biden +3.16 in Florida.]
With the exception of the Quinnipiac survey, which updated an outlier from a couple of weeks ago, Biden benefited from the updates in the other three polls that were released in Florida today. There was not movement toward Biden in all of them, but his advantages stretched in all three. More importantly, the Democratic nominee hit 50 percent in that trio of Sunshine state surveys as well. Like the discussion about Arizona polling a day ago, there may be evidence of some narrowing in Florida as well. But it is offset by how frequently Biden has been at or above 50 percent in recent Florida polling. The former vice president has been at or beyond the majority mark in 41 of 108 surveys in the Sunshine state this year. And nearly half of that 41 -- 19 surveys -- have found Biden hitting or exceeding 50 percent in just October alone. 


Georgia
(Biden 48, Trump 46 via Public Policy Polling)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +0.40] 
Biden 47, Trump 46 in early October poll
At first glance, little change from the early October Georgia poll from PPP, but then, that is par for the course in this series in 2020. Other than the June poll in which Biden led by four, the remaining surveys have all 1) had him ahead and 2) by margins in the one to two point range. This poll not only fits that trend, but is consistent with where most of the recent polling has been in the Peach state. 


Iowa
(Trump 47, Biden 46 via Quinnipiac)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +0.64] 
Biden, 50, Trump 45 in early October poll 
FHQ does not know if Quinnipiac was spooked by that Florida outlier cited above, but today's batch from the university pollster seems to be a correction of some form. That may or may not be the case, but the percentage of undecideds grew from the last poll to now in three of the four polls including this Iowa survey. Only in Pennsylvania did the share of undecideds decrease. Regardless, that dynamic, whether a correction of some sort or natural movement (not really seen in other state-level polling) has closed the gap in Iowa from a poll just a couple of week ago. And it is also true that the last round of Q-polls were simple outliers and this is a regression to the mean. This Iowa poll is consistent with the 47-46 lead Trump currently holds in the FHQ averages. But that undecided shift is a curious footnote.


Maine
(Biden 53, Trump 39 via Survey USA)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +13.54] 

Maine CD1
(Biden 59, Trump 40 via Survey USA)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +23.36] 

Maine CD2
(Biden 51, Trump 49 via Survey USA)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +1.77] 
No previous Survey USA poll [Current FHQ averages in ME CD2: Biden 46, Trump 45 (rounded)]
FHQ will not dwell on this new Survey USA survey that encompassed all three jurisdictions with electoral votes at stake in the Pine Tree state. The second congressional district will be the most competitive of the bunch and the ranked choice voting-simulated version of that poll -- one that took second, third and fourth preferences -- gave the former vice president a two point edge that closely resembles the projected advantage he currently holds for that one electoral vote. There has not been a ton of polling in these two Maine districts, but what has been in the field has tended to favor Biden more often than not. 


Michigan
(Biden 52, Trump 42 via Mitchell Research)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +7.21] 
Biden 51, Trump 41 in mid-October poll
The Mitchell poll a week ago was on the upper end of the margins Biden has enjoyed in recent polling of the Great Lakes state, and the update this week ahead of the election does not look that much different. It still has Biden on the upper end of his range in the state and Trump near the bottom of his. This poll does expand the Democratic nominee's advantage in Michigan, but not by much. 


Minnesota
(Biden 47, Trump 42 via Survey USA)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +8.39] 
Biden 48, Trump 42 in last week's poll
The new Survey USA poll of Minnesota is not that different from the Michigan update above. But it is, perhaps, on the opposite end of the spectrum. There was not much change from one week to the next through a Survey USA lens that has Biden at the bottom of his October range and Trump consistent with his FHQ average share of support in the Land of 10,000 Lakes. Survey USA has also conducted three of the nine October surveys in Minnesota and has provided three of the four instances in which Biden has failed to reach 50 percent in the state. 


Montana
(Trump 52, Biden 45 via MSU-Billings)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +7.76] 
No previous MSU-Billings poll [Current FHQ averages in Montana: Trump 51, Biden 44 (rounded)]
First of all, this MSU-Billings survey of the Treasure state is consistent with the established FHQ average. But it also adds even more evidence to the massive potential shift there from 2016 to now. The existing Montana polling points to a more than 13 point swing toward the Democrats. That is enough to pull Montana into the Lean Trump category, but that is probably it. Still, that potential shift highlight just how uncompetitive Montana ended up being four years ago. 


New Hampshire
(Biden 58, Trump 39 via American Research Group | Biden 53, Trump 43 via UMass-Lowell)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +11.13] 
American Research Group: Biden 53, Trump 44 in September poll
UMass-Lowell: Biden 52, Trump 44 in September poll
There was little movement in the UMass-Lowell series in the Granite state from September to now, but that was not the case in the ARG series. As surprising as it may seem, the Alabama poll above and this ARG survey of New Hampshire mirror each other. And yes, Alabama is closer than is typical of the Yellowhammer state in presidential elections, but an equivalent 19 point gap in New Hampshire grabs the attention. That is doubly true for a state that was tight in 2016 and that the president's reelection effort was targeting earlier in this cycle. [The president was just there over the weekend too.] Given a uniform swing from four years ago, New Hampshire would not be competitive necessarily, but it also would not likely by tipped nearly 20 points in Biden's direction either.


New Jersey
(Biden 61, Trump 37 via Rutgers/Eagleton)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +19.74] 
Biden 56, Trump 33 (among registered voters) in May poll
That Biden has hit 60 percent in the update to May's Rutgers/Eagleton poll of New Jersey is noteworthy in and of itself. He has only reached those heights in a couple of the Survey Monkey polls of the Garden state this year. But it also serves to highlight just how little the former vice president has improved on Clinton's showing in New Jersey four years ago. It stands out as the exception rather than the rule. The president, on the other hand, has been consistently in the upper 30s there, a little more than four points off his 2016 pace there.


North Carolina
(Biden 48, Trump 45 via Siena/NYT Upshot | Biden 48, Trump 48 via UMass-Lowell)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +1.85] 
Siena: Biden 46, Trump 42 in earlier October poll
UMass-Lowell: Biden 47, Trump 47 in September poll
The Citizen Data survey (described as part of the collective wave below) did all the heavy lifting in pushing the FHQ average margin in North Carolina closer to Biden +2, but the other two polls of the Tar Heel state released today maintained the status quo. Neither the Siena nor the UMass-Lowell surveys saw any substantial shifts from the last polls in those respective series and neither update differs much from the range of polls out of North Carolina in October (or the rest of the year for that matter). Biden continues to maintain a 48-46 (rounded) advantage at FHQ.


Ohio
(Trump 49, Biden 47 via Gravis Marketing | Biden 48, Trump 43 via Quinnipiac)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +0.67] 
No previous Gravis poll
Quinnipiac: Biden 48, Trump 47 in mid-October poll
While the first Gravis poll in the Buckeye state is in line with the small lead that Trump has had there throughout much of 2020, the Quinnipiac survey is not. But unlike the Florida and Iowa Q-polls, the one in Ohio swung toward Biden and not the president. It did, however, see the share of undecideds grow from the previous poll in the series. That drew in the margin, pushing Ohio closer to the partisan line, but the Buckeye state remains a state that is close but slightly tilted toward the president. The wiggle room in Ohio polling is that neither candidate has really been north of 50 percent much all year. Of the 42 polls that have been in the field there in 2020, Trump has hit or surpassed the majority mark only eight times and Biden has only done so in three surveys. Trump is the only one to get there in October, but even then, only once.


Pennsylvania
(Biden 51, Trump 45 via RMG Research | Biden 51, Trump 44 via Quinnipiac | Biden 50, Trump 44 via Franklin and Marshall)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +5.41] 
RMG Research: Biden 49, Trump 43 in earlier October poll
Quinnipiac: Biden 51, Trump 43 in earlier October poll
Franklin and Marshall: Biden 48, Trump 42 in September poll
If there is any new Pennsylvania poll out, then odds are it will have Biden around 50 percent and Trump somewhere in the mid-40s. All three polls fit that mold today, and while both the RMG and the Franklin and Marshall polls showed positive movement for both candidates, both new surveys maintained the margins from the previous polls in each series. This string of polls nudged Biden that much closer to 50 percent in the averages at FHQ as well.


Texas
(Trump 48, Biden 47 via UMass-Lowell)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +1.40] 
UMass-Lowell: Trump 49, Biden 46 in September poll 
Minimal movement from one UMass-Lowell survey of Texas to the next did little to change the outlook in the Lone Star state. Trump still has the advantage in a state that continues to look like the North Carolina of the Trump side of the partisan line: close, but consistently tipped toward the president. And like North Carolina, it was the Citizen Data survey that triggered the changes in the Texas average margin.


Vermont
(Biden 62, Trump 32 via co/efficient)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +36.71] 
No previous co/efficient poll [Current FHQ averages in Vermont: Biden 66, Trump 30 (rounded)]
A rare Vermont poll failed to offer any real suspense. The Green Mountain state is a heavy Biden lean off on the far left end of the order on the Electoral College Spectrum, and other than Biden ending up closer to 60 percent rather than 70 percent, this poll -- an internal Republican survey for the lieutenant governor's race in Vermont -- did not stray too far from what one might expect. Still, Vermont is one of those states where the 2020 polling relative to where the candidates ended up in 2016 is a tad askew. While Trump hovers near where he was in Vermont -- lagging less than a point behind his 2016 pace -- Biden is more than nine points out in front of Clinton from four years ago. 


Virginia
(Biden 51, Trump 39 via Virginia Commonwealth)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +11.84] 
Biden 53, Trump 39 in September poll 
In the Old Dominion, Biden lost a couple of points in the VCU poll since its last survey in September. Both candidates fall a couple of points shy of their FHQ average shares of support in this latest update, but the margin is right on target. That further cements Virginia as something other than  the battleground it has been in recent cycles. 


Citizen Data (October battleground polls -- initial wave of releases):
Ohio: Trump 44, Biden 43
Texas: Biden 49, Trump 45
Georgia: Biden 48, Trump 44
Florida: Biden 50, Trump 45
Pennsylvania: Biden 44, Trump 39
North Carolina: Biden 50, Trump 44
Michigan: Biden 50, Trump 41

This strange set of polls from Citizen Data was made all the more strange by the correction it had to make to a Texas poll that initially (and mistakenly) indicated that Biden was ahead by ten points. A four point lead for the vice president in the Lone Star state is already off to the extreme Biden end of of the range in Texas polling. If that was not enough, the order of states in this wave is not at all consistent with the established order at FHQ. North Carolina being to the Biden side of both Florida and Pennsylvania stands out, but then again the undecideds/others-inflated totals in that survey of the Keystone state do as well. 



NOTE: 


The Electoral College Spectrum1
DC-3
VT-3
(6)2
IL-20
(162)
WI-10
(253)
AK-3
(125)
TN-11
(60)
MA-11
(17)
NJ-14
(176)
PA-203
(273 | 285)
MO-10
(122)
KY-8
(49)
MD-10
(27)
OR-7
(183)
NV-6
(279 | 265)
SC -9
(112)
SD-3
(41)
HI-4
(31)
ME-2
(185)
FL-29
(308 | 259)
MT-3
NE CD1-1
(103)
AL-9
(38)
NY-29
(60)
CO-9
(194)
AZ-11
(319 | 230)
KS-6
(99)
ID-4
(29)
CA-55
(115)
VA-13
(207)
NC-15
ME CD2-1
(335 | 219)
NE-2
(93)
AR-6
(25)
DE-3
(118)
NH-4
(211)
GA-16
(351 | 203)
IN-11
(91)
OK-7
(19)
WA-12
(130)
NM-5
(216)
IA-6
(187)
UT-6
(80)
ND-3
(12)
ME CD1-1
CT-7
(138)
MN-10
(226)
OH-18
(181)
MS-6
(74)
WV-5
(9)
RI-4
(142)
NE CD2-1
MI-16
(243)
TX-38
(163)
LA-8
(68)
WY-3
NE CD3-1
(4)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states plus the Pennsylvania), he would have 285 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trump's is on the right in bold italics.

3 Pennsylvania
 is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state. The tipping point cell is shaded in yellow to denote that and the font color is adjusted to attempt to reflect the category in which the state is.

On the weight of two new polls -- especially that ARG poll -- New Hampshire shifts off the Watch List. It is now outside of a point of moving into the Lean Biden category and is a more comfortable Strong Biden state. 

Similarly, a wide margin in the latest New Jersey poll pushed the Garden state past Oregon in the order and one cell away from the partisan line. New Jersey is a safe Strong Biden state as well.

But again, this was another day of subtle changes here at FHQ and not the sort of big changes that the president needs at this late date. The electoral vote tally remains at Biden, 351-187 despite the changes further out in the order on the Spectrum and on the Watch List. 

5 days to go.


Where things stood at FHQ on October 29 (or close to it) in...
2016
2012
2008


--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State
Potential Switch
Georgia
from Toss Up Biden
to Toss Up Trump
Iowa
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Biden
Kansas
from Lean Trump
to Strong Trump
Nevada
from Toss Up Biden
to Lean Biden
New Mexico
from Strong Biden
to Lean Biden
Ohio
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Biden
Pennsylvania
from Lean Biden
to Toss Up Biden
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was  too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.


--
Related posts:




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Tuesday, October 20, 2020

The Electoral College Map (10/20/20)

Update for October 20.


Changes (October 20)
StateBeforeAfter
Georgia
Toss Up Biden
Toss Up Trump
After a slow weekend of polling releases and a similar start to Monday, Tom Bevan at Real Clear Politics asked where the polls were on Twitter a day ago. As FHQ said over the weekend, it was the calm before the storm, and the showers began in earnest on Tuesday with 16 new polls in 13 states. States representing five of the six FHQ categories were represented, and as a result there was a pretty good cross-section of the race. [Only the Lean Trump category was not represented in this wave of new polling.] That particular cross-section continues to point toward a Democratic swing from election day 2016 to the polling picture in 2020. Right now, that shift stands at 6.84 points in the Democrats' direction.

And in the one state that made another change, the shift from 2016 to now is below average but not by much. Less than a week since it jumped the partisan line into Toss Up Biden territory, new polling has pushed Georgia back to the Trump side. But the marginal Biden lead before is an even more tenuous Trump advantage now. After the addition of the new surveys, the Peach state went from Biden +0.03 to Trump +0.007. 

It is tied in Georgia with two weeks to go, and that represents a nearly five point shift from election day four years ago. 

On to the polls... 


Polling Quick Hits:
Alabama
(Trump 55, Biden 38)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +19.96]
In the Yellowhammer state, Moore Information weighed in for the first time and found much what other surveys have collectively discovered throughout 2020: Trump maintains a sizable advantage, but one that is off the mark compared to his performance there in 2016. But the president coming in under his prior showing is only part of the equation. Biden, for his part, is ahead of Clinton's pace by nearly four points. And while this new poll matches the Biden number in the FHQ averages, Trump's share of support in the poll lags his own average level of support by more than three points. 


Arkansas
(Trump 58, Biden 34)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +24.62]
What a difference a few months makes. The weekend before FHQ went live with its first daily electoral college projection of the cycle, Hendrix College released a survey that not only had Trump with less than 50 percent in the Natural state, but ahead by just two points. What was an outlier then continues to look like an outlier now. And that is more true at this point given an update from Hendrix that shows Trump expanding that June edge by 12 times. Contrary to the earlier Hendrix poll this one and the other surveys from other pollsters that have been in the field there have had the president in a mid-50s to mid-60s range while Biden has more often been in the 30s. Compared to Alabama, however, the swing in Arkansas has been minimal. Trump is just half point behind where he was in 2016 and the former vice president is a shade under two points above Clinton's performance there.


Arizona
(Biden 47, Trump 42)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +3.07]
Data Orbital conducted a survey in the Grand Canyon state during the first week in October and had Biden out in front by five points. The margin is the same now as both candidates have tacked on an additional point of support in that time. That brings Biden's share in the series closer to his average share of support in the FHQ averages, but the firm continues to be less optimistic about Trump's support than some other pollsters. Arizona is close, but it is polls like these that keep the vice president steadily ahead there.


Colorado
(Biden 51, Trump 43)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +12.69]
This RMG Research survey -- its first in the state in calendar 2020 -- is now the third poll released out of Colorado over the last two days, and although it finds Biden in good shape, it has the race the closest of the set. Most of that difference is on the Trump side. The president is at his peak level in Centennial state polling here while Biden splits the difference between where he was in yesterday's pair of polls. Being below 50 percent in the YouGov poll was unusual in view of the other polls of the state this year, but even a 51 percent share here is on the lower end of the former vice president's range in recent Colorado surveys. 


Florida
(Biden 48, Trump 47)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +3.28]
The Sunshine state has been in the Biden +3 area for a while now at FHQ, but polls like the new University of North Florida may provide some evidence that that is changing. In early October the university pollster had the Democratic nominee ahead by six with more than 50 percent of the respondents backing him. What is of note here, however, is that within the UNF series, this poll closely mirrors the poll conducted in Florida in February. FHQ spent some time during the late summer talking about regression to, if not the mean, then the pre-Biden surge period before June and July. This may just be some evidence of such a regression or it could more simply be a manifestation of partisan coming home as election day nears. Regardless, Florida, like Arizona, is close but consistently tipped in the former vice president's direction.  


Georgia
(Trump 48, Biden 47 via Emerson | Trump 45, Biden 45 via Siena/NYT Upshot)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +0.007]
Again, Georgia may have flipped back to Toss Up Trump based on the addition of these two polls, but FHQ will say what we said when the Peach state hopped the partisan line onto Biden turf last week: as long as Georgia remains this close, it does not matter which side of the partisan line it is. The story is that Georgia is close at all. Well, as was mentioned above, it was close before and is even closer now even with the change. This is the first time Emerson has been in the field in the Peach state in calendar 2020, but the update from Siena showed no change over its September survey. And together neither did much to dislodge the state from its perch as the most competitive state on the board. 


Kentucky
(Trump 56, Biden 39)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +18.54]
Kentucky is the third of the Strong Trump states with new surveys out today, and the Mason-Dixon results closely resemble the 57-38 lead Trump currently holds in the FHQ averages. It is not close in the Bluegrass state either in the averages here or in this first time survey of Kentucky. However, it lends even more credence to the dynamic cited above. Even in reliably red states Trump is well off his 2016 mark. And this is more acute in Kentucky than it was in Alabama and (especially) Arkansas. The swing in the Bluegrass state is approaching twice the size of the overall average shift across the country. Trump is more than six points behind his showing there four years ago, and Biden is more than five points ahead of where Clinton was in November 2016.


Minnesota
(Biden 49, Trump 44)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +8.30]
The Change Research poll of Minnesota likely voters is another of the first timers in today's batch of polls. And while there is no natural comparison, one can say that this is the closest any poll of the Land of 10,000 Lakes has found the race there since early September in the immediate aftermath of convention season. But since that point -- in all of the September and October polling -- Biden has been at or over 50 percent in eight of 15 polls. This one finds the Democratic nominee below the majority level, but at a point that is well within his range in the state. Trump, on the other hand is back at his peak of support in post-convention polling in this survey. Minnesota may or may not be narrowing, but it will take more polls like this to do, but to do so in the remaining 14 days. That is a steep climb in a state that has been reliably in the Biden column.


North Carolina
(Biden 50, Trump 48 via ABC/WaPo | Biden 51, Trump 47 via East Carolina University)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +1.79]
In North Carolina, the thing that grabs the eye in two similar looking surveys is that Biden is at or above 50 percent in both of them. That is happening more frequently in recent Tar Heel state polling. October has seen the state surveyed 17 times and of that group, eight have had Biden above the majority mark. If one drops that just a point to 49 percent, Biden has been at or over that mark in 12 of 17 polls. And although the race is close in North Carolina, it must be troubling to the Trump campaign that the state has regularly been tilted in the former vice president's direction and furthermore that he is closing in on 50 percent there. Yes, Biden's average share at FHQ rounds up to just 48 now, but that is trending upward Yet, so has Trump's, just at a lesser clip as undecideds come off the board.


Ohio
(Biden 48, Trump 47)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +0.53]
It may get old saying this about the states that have continued to hover around the partisan line this fall, but Ohio is also close. And the new Pulse Opinion Research results in a survey of the Buckeye state demonstrate that nicely. Furthermore, the race has tightened through the lens of the Pulse series of polls. Biden held four point leads in polls in both July and September and that advantage has now dissipated. But this survey brings Pulse in line with other recent surveys in the state. In fact, it exactly matches the Quinnipiac poll of the state from last week among the major party candidates. 


Pennsylvania
(Biden 49, Trump 45 via Ipsos | Biden 50, Trump 47 via Pulse Opinion Research)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +5.38]
The two new additions to Pennsylvania polling today are similar in a few ways. First, both find Biden's advantage over the president in the commonwealth below his graduated weighted average margin there. However, both also have the former vice president hovering right around his average share of support in the Keystone state, meaning that it is the Trump data that is different. Indeed, the president is above his 44 percent (rounded) share of support at FHQ in both surveys, but certainly within his range in recent polling.  Looking at each poll on its own, the Ipsos survey continues a series where Biden continues to oscillate in the 49-51 percent range while Trump has most often been stuck at 45 percent. In other words, there is not much change here. But that is not the case with the Pulse survey. In the last poll from the firm, the two major party candidates were tied in August. But rather than attribute that to some Biden surge in the time since, it is more likely that the August survey was an outlier. This latest poll more closely resembles the July Pulse poll when Biden led 51-46.

 
Texas
(Biden 47, Trump 46)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +1.62]
Texas continues to look like the North Carolina of the Trump coalition of states. And the latest Data for Progress survey of the Lone Star state dose nothing to really change that. As in the Tar Heel state, the underdog occasionally leads and that is true of this DfP poll. Yet, this survey represents a narrowing of the race for the 38 electoral votes in Texas. The early October poll from DfP had Biden up two. While Biden held his ground at 47 percent, Trump rose a point to 46 percent. Alternatively, this is just plain old survey variability. Regardless, Texas continues to favor Trump.


Wisconsin
(Biden 51, Trump 45)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +6.20]
The other Ipsos survey on the day -- a leftover from late Monday -- comes from Wisconsin. But like the Pennsylvania survey from Ipsos, this update to a poll from last week does not show any real change over that time. Biden lost a point, but continues to consistently be around 50 percent in the series while Trump trails often in the mid-40s. That just does not stray that much from the 50-43 advantage Biden has in the FHQ averages. 


The Electoral College Spectrum1
DC-3
VT-3
(6)2
IL-20
(162)
WI-10
(253)
AK-3
(125)
TN-11
(60)
MA-11
(17)
OR-7
(169)
PA-203
(273 | 285)
MO-10
(122)
KY-8
(49)
MD-10
(27)
NJ-14
(183)
NV-6
(279 | 265)
SC -9
(112)
AL-9
(41)
HI-4
(31)
ME-2
(185)
FL-29
(308 | 259)
KS-6
(103)
SD-3
(32)
CA-55
(86)
CO-9
(194)
AZ-11
(319 | 230)
NE CD1-1
MT-3
(97)
ID-4
(29)
NYI-29
(115)
VA-13
(207)
NC-15
ME CD2-1
(335 | 219)
NE-2
(93)
AR-6
(25)
DE-3
(118)
NH-4
(211)
GA-16
(203)
IN-11
(91)
OK-7
(19)
WA-12
(130)
NM-5
(216)
OH-18
(187)
UT-6
(80)
ND-3
(12)
ME CD1-1
CT-7
(138)
MN-10
(226)
IA-6
(169)
MS-6
(74)
WV-5
(9)
RI-4
(142)
NE CD2-1
MI-16
(243)
TX-38
(163)
LA-8
(68)
WY-3
NE CD3-1
(4)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states plus the Pennsylvania), he would have 285 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trump's is on the right in bold italics.

3 Pennsylvania
 is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state. The tipping point cell is shaded in yellow to denote that and the font color is adjusted to attempt to reflect the category in which the state is.

Tuesday was another day where there may have been the beginnings of some evidence that Trump is closing the gap in the waning days of the 2020 presidential campaign. And while there may be some truth to that it was often subtle and often masked by a continued steadiness in polls that represent an update to a series of previous polls. From pollster to pollster, there may be some changes, but within-pollster effects are minimal at best. This ends up being another day, then, in which the president did not make up any real ground on the Democratic nominee. And that is even with Georgia coming back over the partisan line into his column. 

It is that Georgia move that provides the only changes for the day. The Peach state turned pink on the map and Spectrum and flipped its possible switch on the Watch List below. But again, that is to be expected. As close as Georgia is, it has the greatest potential to change hands of any state on the board. 

But with two weeks to go, Trump still has that more than five point gap to make up in order to reclaim North Carolina, Arizona, Florida and Pennsylvania to get to 270 electoral votes. And if that follows the order on the Spectrum above, then Trump would likely flip Nevada in the process as well. But at this last date, that is a tall task. Not impossible, but tough.


Where things stood at FHQ on October 20 (or close to it) in...
2016
2012
2008


--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State
Potential Switch
Georgia
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Biden
New Hampshire
from Strong Biden
to Lean Biden
New Mexico
from Strong Biden
to Lean Biden
Ohio
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Biden
Pennsylvania
from Lean Biden
to Toss Up Biden
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was  too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.


--
Related posts:




Follow FHQ on TwitterInstagram and Facebook or subscribe by Email.