The Electoral College Map (10/2/20)

Update for October 2.

Well, this has been a week.

The work week comes to a close with a handful of new surveys from five states and another wave of polls from Redfield and Wilton Strategies in the six core battlegrounds. Of those five, surveys of Georgia, Michigan and New Hampshire were all in the field after the first presidential debate on Tuesday night. But of those only the polls in Georgia and Michigan had pre-debate surveys from the same firms. In both there was movement in Biden's direction following the debate. The swing in Georgia from an August Landmark Communications survey to now was more pronounced, but that preceding survey last month, in retrospect, was a fairly clear outlier. It, too, had a survey that preceded it. And using that one as the point of comparison rather than the outlier shows a smaller shift, but still one in the former vice president's direction.  The change in Michigan was more modest from one Public Policy Polling survey (on behalf of Progress Michigan) to another. All in all, the changes were small enough to have potentially just been statistical noise than from anything stemming from the debate itself. Still, this is likely something worth tracking heading forward.

On to the other surveys...

Polling Quick Hits:
Arizona

(Biden 50, Trump 46)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +3.47]
The Suffolk poll of likely voters in the Grand Canyon state is the firm's first conducted there in calendar 2020. And while there is no natural point of comparison, the survey is not inconsistent with the established averages at FHQ. The margin is on target, but both candidates are running a couple of points ahead of their FHQ average shares of support. As has been noted a few times in this space, that sort of dynamic should continue as election day approaches and more undecideds come off the board. That should increasingly have one or both of the candidates out in front of their averages.

Georgia
(Biden 47, Trump 45)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +0.10]
As noted above, FHQ will throw out the immediately previous Landmark Communications survey in favor of the one that was released two weeks before that in mid-August. It fit in more with the other polls in the field in the Peach state around the same time and represented a four point swing toward Biden (rather than a nine point shift). And really, the two polls -- minus the outlier -- are much more in line with the ranges of support in which both candidates have much more consistently ended up in. Georgia is most often in a Biden +3 to Trump +3 range at the moment and this latest Landmark poll fits well in there.


Michigan

(Biden 50, Trump 44)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +7.04]
Meanwhile, in Michigan, Public Policy Polling offered an opportunity to examine the possible pre- and post-debate effects. And the movement in the Great Lakes state was toward Biden as well. However, it did not really come at Trump's expense. The president was stable at 44 percent across the two surveys and Biden picked up a couple of points from other-undecided in that time. But again, while it may be easy to chalk that up to some impact from the debate earlier this week, the shift is small enough to just as easily have been some more pedestrian polling variability instead. The bottom line is that the former vice president maintains a smaller than average advantage in these surveys than the full world of Michigan polls.

New Hampshire
(Biden 53, Trump 45)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +7.96]
Emerson waded into the Granite state to gauge public opinion on the presidential race for the first time in calendar 2020 and found what the slew of other recent survey of the state have found: Biden up by a margin in the upper single digits. As with the Arizona poll above, this survey nailed the margin, but had both candidates a couple of points out in front of their established average shares of support here at FHQ.


New York

(Biden 61, Trump 29)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +28.35]
Over in the Empire state Siena_ was back in the field, but for the first drew a likely rather than registered voter sample. That shift was beneficial to the Democratic nominee. Biden gained four percent since the June Siena survey to push back above the 60 percent mark. Trump, on the other, hand lost out in the registered-to-likely transition. The president not only lost ground because of Biden's gain, but also saw his own support decay, nudging his support below 30 percent in his former home state for the first time since an April Siena survey there. Look, Biden is unlikely to lose New York on November 3, but he is running a hair above Hillary Clinton's pace in the state from four years ago while Trump has lost nearly six points off his 2016 showing in the state.

Redfield & Wilton Strategies (late September wave of battleground polls)

Arizona: Biden +3 (Biden +/-0, Trump +2  since mid-September wave)
Florida: Biden +5 (Biden +1, Trump -1) [Current FHQ margin: Biden +3.49]
Michigan: Biden +9 (Biden +2, Trump +3)
North Carolina: Biden +2 (Biden +/-0, Trump +/-0) [Current FHQ margin: Biden +1.47]
Pennsylvania: Biden +6 (Biden +1, Trump +/-0) [Current FHQ margin: Biden +5.35]
Wisconsin: Biden +5 (Biden +1, Trump +2) [Current FHQ margin: Biden +6.18]

Finally, there was another wave of battleground surveys from Redfield and Wilton. And again, the changes were minimal from the last wave less than two weeks ago. What continues to stand out in these is the extent to which the order in these polls differs from the established order on the Electoral College Spectrum. Some variability in the margins is to be expected between the two, but the Arizona is now back to being on the low side of Florida and Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are flipped in the order. Those are, however, small differences.

NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2020 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
DC-3 MA-11 (14)2	CT-7 (162)	WI-10 (253)	AK-3 (125)	AL-9 (60)
HI-4 (18)	NJ-14 (176)	PA-203 (273 | 285)	SC-9 (122)	IN-11 (51)
CA-55 (73)	OR-7 (183)	NV-6 (279 | 265)	MO-10 (113)	UT-6 (40)
MD-10 (83)	NM-5 (188)	FL-29 (308 | 259)	MT-3 (103)	KY-8 (34)
VT-3 (86)	ME-2 (190)	AZ-11 ME CD2-1 (320 | 230)	NE CD1-1 KS-6 (100)	SD-3 (26)
NY-29 (115)	CO-9 (199)	NC-15 (335 | 218)	LA-8 (93)	ID-4 (23)
WA-12 ME CD1-1 (128)	VA-13 (212)	GA-16 (203)	MS-6 (85)	ND-3 (19)
RI-4 (132)	MN-10 (222)	OH-18 (187)	AR-6 (79)	OK-7 (16)
DE-3 (135)	NH-4 (226)	IA-6 (169)	NE-2 (73)	WV-5 (9)
IL-20 (155)	MI-16 NE CD2-1 (243)	TX-38 (163)	TN-11 (71)	WY-3 NE CD3-1 (4)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states plus the Pennsylvania), he would have 285 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trump's is on the right in bold italics. 3 Pennsylvania is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state. The tipping point cell is shaded in yellow to denote that and the font color is adjusted to attempt to reflect the category in which the state is.

Like yesterday's update, the polls added to the dataset today did nothing to alter either the map or the Watch List. But the did have some impact on the order among four important toss up states. Arizona and Florida again changed places with the Grand Canyon state moving one cell closer to the partisan line. And in Trump territory, there was more shuffling among the the group of states clustered within a point of the partisan line. The new Georgia poll brought the average margin down enough in the Peach state to jump it over Ohio in to the most competitive position right up against the barrier separating Trump from Biden states. But again, both are so close to one another right now that one is likely to see more of this moving forward. And importantly, both states are within two-tenths of a point of shifting over onto Toss Up Biden turf.

That is no small thing. As has become the mantra of sorts around here, if the chatter about the most competitive states on election day is about Georgia, Iowa and Ohio rather than, say, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, then one will have a pretty good idea of where the election is likely headed.



Where things stood at FHQ on October 2 (or close to it) in...
2016
2012
2008



--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State	Potential Switch
Arkansas	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Georgia	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Biden
Iowa	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Biden
Louisiana	from Lean Trump	to Strong Trump
Mississippi	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Nevada	from Toss Up Biden	to Lean Biden
Ohio	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Biden
Pennsylvania	from Lean Biden	to Toss Up Biden
South Carolina	from Lean Trump	to Toss Up Trump
Virginia	from Strong Biden	to Lean Biden
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was  too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.


--
Related posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/1/20)

The Electoral College Map (9/30/20)

The Electoral College Map (9/29/20)

Follow FHQ on Twitter, Instagram and Facebook or subscribe by Email.

The Electoral College Map (10/1/20)

Update for October 1.

Yesterday's update focused on states currently outside of toss up territory and while that is still the case today, there are a few battleground toss ups thrown into the mix. But even in those four states -- Arizona, Iowa, North Carolina and Ohio -- the additions served to confirm what was already known in each: Iowa and Ohio are barely on the Trump side of the partisan line and Arizona and North Carolina, while toss ups, are further away from the partisan line and in Biden's column. And as today marks 33 days until election day on November 3, that alignment is not lost -- or should not be -- on those observers of the process. A couple of Trump states are closer to changing hands (and adding to Biden's already winning projected electoral vote total) than two states that the president is absolutely going to have to have to get to 270. Each day that the narrative does not change from that -- each day that the alignment stays the same -- is a day lost for President Trump.

Polling Quick Hits:
Arizona

(Biden 49, Trump 45)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +3.47]
Data for Progress was back in the field looking at competitive Senate races and in the case of Arizona has been less than a week since the firm last tested the presidential race. A one point Trump lead then is a four point Biden advantage now. And really, this survey is much more in line with where the FHQ averages currently peg the race in the Grand Canyon state: Biden up 48-44 (rounded).

Iowa
(Trump 47, Biden 44 via Data for Progress | Biden 48, Trump 46 via RABA Research)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +0.39]
One can take one's pick in the pair of new Iowa polls added today. Each of the two major party candidates had a lead in one and they average out to a half a point lead for the president. In the context of all of the other calendar 2020 polling in the Hawkeye state, however, and through the lens of the graduated weighted average used here at FHQ, the president's edge is 0.39 points. There is some difference there, but not much. Likewise, Trump leads in Iowa, but not by much.

Kansas
(Trump 52, Biden 42)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +8.66]
There have been some closer than typical polls of the presidential race in Kansas this season, but the last couple of days have brought two that have shown a less competitive contest. The new Civiqs is the second of those two and serves to stretch out Trump's lead in the Sunflower state. Neither poll is unusual in the scope of the full universe of Kansas polling, but Trump is running near the top of his range in both while Biden is toward the lower end of his. Still, there was not much change in the Civiqs series from the last poll in June to now. Biden gained a couple of points and Trump was stable at 52 percent.

Maine
(Biden 53, Trump 39)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +12.90]
That same sort of dynamic (but in reverse) was true of the update in Maine from Data for Progress. Two months ago, Biden held a ten point lead with 53 percent of the respondents supporting him. In that same timeframe, however, Trump lost four points to fall below 40 percent. And again, that is consistent with where the president sits statewide in the Pine Tree state in the FHQ averages. Those two statewide electors as stake in Maine have never really been in doubt and sadly, this poll did not also include data on the more competitive second district. But judging from the statewide data here and other polls in a similar range, Biden likely would have narrowly led there as well.

Michigan

(Biden 52, Trump 44)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +7.02]
Another day brings another poll in Michigan, the most frequently surveyed state of calendar 2020. And the latest from ALG Research is like a number of the other polls today: consistent with existing averages -- both candidate shares and margin -- in the state. This is the first time ALG has conducted a poll -- one that has been publicly released -- in the Great Lakes state. The big thing in Michigan now is Biden's proximity to 50 percent. Of the 20 polls conducted in the state in whole or in part in September, the former vice president was at or above 50 percent in 13 of them. Furthermore, he was at 49 percent in four of the remaining three. That is a troubling sign for a president trying to defend the state in 2020.

New Hampshire
(Biden 53, Trump 44)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +7.96]
There have been several new polls of New Hampshire this week, a veritable flood of new data in a state that has likely been underpolled in 2020 given its position in the order of states (not to mention its close finish in 2016). But the latest three polls including the new one from American Research Group have expanded Biden's advantage in the Granite state, pushing the former vice president's average share of support at FHQ above 50 percent. Near each other on election day in 2016, New Hampshire and Michigan have both exhibited similar shifts since then up to now. Both are right in line with a seven or eight point shift toward the Democrats over the last four years.

North Carolina
(Biden 50, Trump 47)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +1.46]
In North Carolina, the polls continue to fall in the same tight range from Biden +3 to Trump +3. The latest addition from ALG Research is on the high end of the Biden side of that range, but nevertheless in that range. It is typical then that while both candidates are running ahead of their established FHQ  averages in the Tar Heel state, Biden is running a bit more ahead than is Trump. But as has become the mantra around here, North Carolina is close and this new poll does little to shake the state from its position in the rank order. With Ohio now on the other side of the partisan line, North Carolina is the most competitive of the Biden coalition of states.

Ohio
(Biden 48, Trump 46)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +0.13]
Speaking of Ohio, ALG Research was also in the field there (and for the first time in calendar 2020) as well. But this poll, dated yesterday on the release, was conducted as August turned to September. The addition is new, but the data is on the old side. But it fits in with other polling around the same time or those conducted since. Sure, Biden is on the high side of his range over that period in this one, but not by a whole lot. The firm nailed the Trump share. And while that cut into the president's advantage, it did not eliminate it. That said, Ohio has once again changed positions with Georgia and is now up against the partisan line, the most competitive state on the Trump side.

Oregon
(Biden 56, Trump 39)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +14.61]
Oregon has only seen a couple of polls in 2020 and the Civiqs survey added for today is the second. The earlier survey very closely resembled the results from 2016, and although this poll has Trump stationary at 39 percent (as compared to the last survey), Biden has pushed into the upper 50s. That pulls the Beaver state closer in line with a more uniform swing toward the Democrats since 2016. It remains below average, but there is now a swing where there really was not before with just the previous poll. [Note, however, that that initial poll was factored in alongside consideration of the shifts in other states that finished near Oregon in the order four years ago.]

Pennsylvania
(Biden 50, Trump 44)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +5.34]
Like its poll of Ohio, the final ALG Research survey release on the day from Pennsylvania was actually in the field a month ago and released just yesterday. But it is a poll that rests comfortably within the context of other recent polls of the Keystone state. FHQ currently has the race for those 20 electoral votes at Biden 49-44 (rounded), so this ALG survey is very much in line with that. Biden is approaching 50 percent there as well. Of the 26 polls conducted since (and including) the ALG poll, half of them have had the former vice president at or above 50 percent. All eyes may be on tipping point state Pennsylvania in the Trump campaign, but it is a lot like Michigan above in terms of how Biden is closing in on 50 percent. Pennsylvania is closer than Michigan, but continues to present the president's reelection effort with some significant obstacles.

South Carolina
(Trump 47, Biden 43)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +5.67]
Lastly, in South Carolina, Data for Progress also sees a close contest for the Palmetto state's nine electoral votes. Only, things are not quite as close as the Quinnipiac poll from a day ago. Still, like that poll, this one has Trump lagging behind the 50 percent (rounded) he carries currently in the FHQ averages. Where the DfP survey is a bit more consistent is on the Biden number. His 43 percent share of support in the poll nearly matches his 44 percent share in the averages. Even with the lead, South Carolina has shifted nearly eight points in the Democrats' direction over the last four years.

NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2020 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
DC-3 MA-11 (14)2	CT-7 (162)	WI-10 (253)	AK-3 (125)	AL-9 (60)
HI-4 (18)	NJ-14 (176)	PA-203 (273 | 285)	SC-9 (122)	IN-11 (51)
CA-55 (73)	OR-7 (183)	NV-6 (279 | 265)	MO-10 (113)	UT-6 (40)
VT-3 (76)	NM-5 (188)	AZ-11 (290 | 259)	MT-3 (103)	KY-8 (34)
MD-10 (86)	ME-2 (190)	FL-29 ME CD2-1 (320 | 248)	NE CD1-1 KS-6 (100)	SD-3 (26)
NY-29 (115)	CO-9 (199)	NC-15 (335 | 218)	LA-8 (93)	ID-4 (23)
WA-12 ME CD1-1 (128)	VA-13 (212)	OH-18 (203)	MS-6 (85)	ND-3 (19)
RI-4 (132)	MN-10 (222)	GA-16 (185)	AR-6 (79)	OK-7 (16)
DE-3 (135)	NH-4 (226)	IA-6 (169)	NE-2 (73)	WV-5 (9)
IL-20 (155)	MI-16 NE CD2-1 (243)	TX-38 (163)	TN-11 (71)	WY-3 NE CD3-1 (4)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states plus the Pennsylvania), he would have 285 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trump's is on the right in bold italics. 3 Pennsylvania is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state. The tipping point cell is shaded in yellow to denote that and the font color is adjusted to attempt to reflect the category in which the state is.

There were scads of new polls again today, but little to show for it in terms of changes at FHQ. Both the map and the Watch List remained unchanged from a day ago on the last day of September. But the beginning of October saw a couple of shifts in the order of states depicted on the Electoral College Spectrum. The new poll of Kansas was enough to push it past Nebraska's first congressional district and deeper into the Lean Trump category. Also on the Trump side of the partisan line and right up against, Ohio jumped Georgia and reclaimed its position as the most competitive state among the Trump coalition. But it is worth noting just how close the trio of Georgia, Iowa and Ohio are to each other and the partisan line. The three states are all within about a quarter of a point of each other in their margins and all within a half a point of the partisan line. All three and Texas are closer to the partisan line than the Biden state next to it on his side, North Carolina. That is 78 electoral votes that are closer to jumping the partisan line into Biden territory than North Carolina's 15 are to moving to Trump's side.


Where things stood at FHQ on October 1 (or close to it) in...
2016
2012
2008



--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State	Potential Switch
Arkansas	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Georgia	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Biden
Iowa	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Biden
Louisiana	from Lean Trump	to Strong Trump
Mississippi	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Nevada	from Toss Up Biden	to Lean Biden
Ohio	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Biden
Pennsylvania	from Lean Biden	to Toss Up Biden
South Carolina	from Lean Trump	to Toss Up Trump
Virginia	from Strong Biden	to Lean Biden
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was  too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.


--
Related posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/30/20)

The Electoral College Map (9/29/20)

The Electoral College Map (9/28/20)

Follow FHQ on Twitter, Instagram and Facebook or subscribe by Email.

The Electoral College Map (9/30/20)

Update for September 30.

With the first presidential debate now in the rearview mirror, and the dust still settling on the free-for-all that took place Tuesday night in Cleveland, the sun did actually rise on Wednesday. And along with it came a smattering of state-level polls from five states currently outside of the toss up range. All were clearly in the field before the debate, so there will not yet be debate effects -- should any end up popping up -- in this update. There also were not any changes from a day ago; not on the map anyway.

To the polls...

Polling Quick Hits:
California

(Biden 59, Trump 32)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +29.88]
SurveyUSA was last in the field in the Golden state a month ago and both candidates benefited from the transition from an "adults" sample to a likely voter sample. But the margin remained much the same as it was in August. And the update is in range of where FHQ has California in the averages (Biden 61-31, rounded). Biden is a bit behind his average share of support and Trump a tad above his, but it is negligible.

Kansas
(Trump 53, Biden 41)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +8.32]
Despite a seemingly tight Senate race in the Sunflower state, there has been a general lack of polling of both that race and the presidential race there. But what little survey work has been done in Kansas has shown a presidential contest where the president has been ahead by either mid-single digits or in the low double digits. The internal poll from the Keep Kansas Great PAC by co/efficient has Republican Senate nominee, Roger Marshall, narrowly in the lead, but Trump more comfortably so. Still, the 53 percent share is Trump's peak in Kansas polling calendar 2020 and all while Biden is near his nadir there (but still about five points north of where Hillary Clinton ended up in 2016).

Michigan

(Biden 49, Trump 47)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +7.01]
Trafalgar Group has now conducted four polls in the Great Lakes state and this is Biden's first lead there since the first in the series in June. All four polls have been much closer that most of the other public opinion gathered on the presidential race in Michigan this year. Yes, the change is pretty small since the firm's survey a week ago -- Biden gained a couple of points while Trump remained stable at a higher than average 47 percent -- but the movement in the vice president's direction is likely not the best of signs in a state that the president does not necessarily need but cannot exactly afford to lose. For what it is worth, this poll is not off the mark on the Biden share by much, but it has Trump at a level that is approaching five points above his FHQ average share.

New Hampshire
(Biden 53, Trump 44 via University of New Hampshire | Biden 56, Trump 42 via Pulse Opinion Research)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +7.83]
Along with the UMass-Lowell survey of the Granite state yesterday, the two New Hampshire polls out today have bolstered the former vice president's advantage there. For UMass-Lowell and Pulse Opinion Research, it was their first forays into the state in calendar 2020. Both found Biden ahead by above average margins . And so, too, did the latest update in the UNH series. But at least there are other UNH surveys for comparison. The race in the Granite state shifted in the UNH series in June when Biden topped out. Since that time, however, the former vice president has remained pretty stable above 50 percent, but his margins have decreased in each successive poll in the series. Trump hit bottom in June at 39 percent and has climbed back to 44 percent over the last three months. The problem for the president is that his share can continue to grow, but as long as Biden is static above the majority mark, it does not really matter.

South Carolina
(Trump 48, Biden 47)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +5.86]
It is one thing when the South Carolina Senate race is close. There have been a number of those types of surveys of late. But the presidential race typically has not followed suit. Well, it has not until now. The latest Quinnipiac update in the Palmetto state has Trump up by just one point with the president's support tumbling below 50 percent in the Q-poll series and Biden reaching his high water mark in South Carolina polling this year. That context is important because this poll has Biden improving on Clinton's 2016 pace almost as much as Trump has lost off of his. This one looks like an outlier in the series, but time (and additional polling) will tell that tale. In the meantime, South Carolina remains a Lean toward Trump, but is back on the Watch List after this poll was added.

NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2020 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
DC-3 MA-11 (14)2	CT-7 (162)	WI-10 (253)	AK-3 (125)	AL-9 (60)
HI-4 (18)	NJ-14 (176)	PA-203 (273 | 285)	SC-9 (122)	IN-11 (51)
CA-55 (73)	OR-7 (183)	NV-6 (279 | 265)	MO-10 (113)	UT-6 (40)
VT-3 (76)	NM-5 (188)	AZ-11 (290 | 259)	MT-3 (103)	KY-8 (34)
MD-10 (86)	ME-2 (190)	FL-29 ME CD2-1 (320 | 248)	KS-6 NE CD1-1 (100)	SD-3 (26)
NY-29 (115)	CO-9 (199)	NC-15 (335 | 218)	LA-8 (93)	ID-4 (23)
WA-12 ME CD1-1 (128)	VA-13 (212)	GA-16 (203)	MS-6 (85)	ND-3 (19)
RI-4 (132)	MN-10 (222)	OH-18 (187)	AR-6 (79)	OK-7 (16)
DE-3 (135)	NH-4 (226)	IA-6 (169)	NE-2 (73)	WV-5 (9)
IL-20 (155)	MI-16 NE CD2-1 (243)	TX-38 (163)	TN-11 (71)	WY-3 NE CD3-1 (4)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states plus the Pennsylvania), he would have 285 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trump's is on the right in bold italics. 3 Pennsylvania is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state. The tipping point cell is shaded in yellow to denote that and the font color is adjusted to attempt to reflect the category in which the state is.

Again, today's group of states are ones that are outside of the toss up range and are not exactly the highest priorities for either candidate to flip over the next 34 days. However, that does not mean that the new polls did not drive some changes at FHQ. The map stayed the same as it was a day ago when Ohio jumped back over the partisan line into Trump territory, but both the Electoral College Spectrum and Watch List saw some changes since debate day (although not because of said debate).

The wider margin in the Kansas poll pushed it past Montana deeper into the Lean Trump group of states. That marks the second time in a little more than a week that a Kansas survey forced a change with Montana. Over in the Lean Biden category, New Hampshire, on the weight of three above average margins over the last to days has moved further away from the partisan line, leaving Michigan at the bottom of the middle blue column.

Finally, South Carolina and Missouri swapped spots again on the lower end of the Lean Trump category. That shift was enough to push the Palmetto state back onto the Watch List after recently leaving it. But like the states above, the change was built on a poll (or polls) well above or below average in the respective states.

But as debate season has now started, the race remains much as it has: with Biden comfortably ahead in the electoral vote tally and Pennsylvania occupying the tipping point spot in the order (and four states between it and the partisan line).



Where things stood at FHQ on September 30 (or close to it) in...
2016
2012
2008



--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State	Potential Switch
Arkansas	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Georgia	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Biden
Iowa	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Biden
Louisiana	from Lean Trump	to Strong Trump
Mississippi	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Nevada	from Toss Up Biden	to Lean Biden
Ohio	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Biden
Pennsylvania	from Lean Biden	to Toss Up Biden
South Carolina	from Lean Trump	to Toss Up Trump
Virginia	from Strong Biden	to Lean Biden
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was  too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.


--
Related posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/29/20)

The Electoral College Map (9/28/20)

The Electoral College Map (9/27/20)

Follow FHQ on Twitter, Instagram and Facebook or subscribe by Email.

The Electoral College Map (9/29/20)

Update for September 29.

Changes (September 29)
State	Before	After
Ohio	Toss Up Biden	Toss Up Trump

Debate day has arrived and with it a slew of new state-level surveys. Many of those were the first time some of these pollsters have conducted surveys in the 12 states polled on the day. Notably, Ohio has jumped back over the partisan line into Toss Up Trump territory after a brief stint shaded in a light blue. Now, those who were happy to see the Buckeye state move into the Toss Up Biden category a few days ago may grumble that it was the June-September waves from Survey Monkey that pushed Ohio back into the president's column. But as FHQ has said, it is not so much that Ohio is a toss up in Biden's or Trump's direction, so much as it is that the Buckeye state is close to tied. It may end up with Biden or Trump on (or after) election day, but if it continues to stay in this area in the order, then it suggests something about the extent to which things have shifted toward the Democrats since 2016. And if Ohio is among the most competitive states on election day, then it suggests that Biden is in good shape to get to and beyond 270.

Polling Quick Hits:
Alaska
(Trump 47, Biden 46)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +2.69]
There has not been a whole lot of polling of Alaska but what little has been done has pointed toward it being a bit more competitive than is typically the case in the Last Frontier. The Harstad Strategic Research survey has Trump up only one point. But the story is less about how much Trump is lagging behind his 2016 pace (nearly three points) there than it is about how much Biden has improved over Clinton's (almost nine points). That is a shift toward the Democrats that is above average compared to the rest of the country. Regardless, more polling of Alaska would seem warranted at this point.

Arizona

(Biden 47, Trump 47)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +3.457]
The Grand Canyon state, meanwhile, has been consistently tipped in Biden's direction by something north of three points in the FHQ averages. And that is still the case. However, the new Susquehanna survey of Arizona is the third over the last week or so to show the state either marginally favoring the president or tied. And that comes after a stretch 12 polls dating back to mid-August since the last Trump lead in an Arizona poll. That could be noise or it could be the start of a new trend in a state that has been a Biden toss up, but a reliable one thus far with some space (and states) between it and the partisan line.

Florida

(Biden 46, Trump 43)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +3.456]
Like Arizona, Florida, too, has been a reliable albeit close state for Biden, but one that has seen some narrowing in recent days. But as FHQ noted last week, things have tightened but only to a point and that is buttressed by a series of polls that have had Biden up three. The new Susquehanna survey of the Sunshine state falls into that category and adds at least some credence to the idea that things have now plateaued there. And the margin has stabilized in the mid-threes for Biden.

Georgia
(Biden 50, Trump 47 via Civiqs | Biden 50, Trump 47 via Quinnipiac)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +0.18]
Speaking of three point leads for the former vice president, he got a pair of them from a couple of new polls out of the Peach state. That was enough to push Georgia back up against the Trump side of the partisan line and back to being the most competitive of the states the president claims at this point. Civiqs was last in the field in Georgia in May and found Biden up a point in a registered voter sample. The switch to likely voters in the time since has only bolstered that advantage. Biden gained a couple of points and Trump remained stationary at 47 percent.

Illinois

(Biden 53, Trump 40)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +20.56]
The first poll of calendar 2020 in Illinois from Victory Research is perhaps a bit closer than one would expect given the nature of the swing from 2016 to now elsewhere across the country. Yes, Biden's lead is comfortable and unlikely to collapse in the next five weeks there, but this survey represents a slight decrease in support for Biden (relative to election day 2016) and marginal increase for the president. Still, as this is the lone survey in the Land of Lincoln, it remains tethered to the swings from other states that finished around it four years ago. That keeps the margin a bit above where this poll pegs it.

New Hampshire
(Biden 52, Trump 44)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +6.69]
The polls have been sporadic enough in New Hampshire that FHQ was surprised to find that there had been a survey other than the new UMass-Lowell poll this month. And it is more in line with the pre-September polling than was the earlier Siena poll of the Granite state. This UMass poll has both candidates running a bit ahead of their established levels of support here at FHQ. But Biden does marginally better to push the poll margin just beyond the FHQ average margin. But like Minnesota, New Hampshire does not exactly look like the flip opportunity the Trump campaign may have envisioned.

North Carolina
(Biden 47, Trump 47)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +1.43]
UMass-Lowell was also in the field in North Carolina and found a race knotted at 47. That is not too far off from the former vice president's 47-46 (rounded) lead in the weighted averages of both candidates' shares of support. North Carolina continues to be close, but like Arizona and Florida, also is still tilted consistently toward Biden.

North Dakota
(Trump 56, Biden 37)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +19.17]
That same consistency was also seen in the latest update from DFM Research in North Dakota. DFM has been the only pollster to test the presidential trial heat in the Peace Garden state all year, and the firm has shown a similar picture each time: Trump in the mid- to upper 50s and Biden in the mid- to upper 30s. Like Illinois, North Dakota is a safe state, but a safe state for the president. But unlike the sole survey in Illinois thus far, the DFM update in North Dakota continues to show Trump running well behind the 62 percent he received there in 2016 and Biden nearly ten points ahead of Clinton's pace. North Dakota will end up a red state in November, but its swing toward the Democrats is notable.

Ohio
(Trump 50, Biden 48)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +0.24]
The four waves of Survey Monkey polls of the Buckeye state may be new to the FHQ dataset, but the 50-48 advantage for the president there is not. Trump held the same lead a month ago in the August survey. And while that represents no change in Ohio in this series, the addition of those four monthly surveys nudges the Buckeye state back over the partisan line onto Trump's side of the ledger. Yet, as this poll is fairly close to Biden's rounded average share of support (47 percent), it has Trump running a few points ahead of his (also 47 percent, rounded). Again, however, the Buckeye state remains within a quarter of a point of the partisan line.

Pennsylvania
(Biden 49, Trump 40 via Siena/NYT Upshot | Biden 54, Trump 45 via ABC/WaPo)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +5.33]
For the first time in a while a pair of polls came along and inched Pennsylvania deeper into the Lean Biden category and outside of a tenth of a point of the Lean/Toss Up line. But it took a couple of nine point leads in those two polls to do it. The ABC/WaPo survey was its first there of calendar 2020, but Siena has conducted a survey in the commonwealth before. And the picture back in mid-June looked awfully similar. Biden's 50-40 edge in June has shrunk to 49-40 in September. No, that is not much shrinking. In fact, that that lead has held up -- from a time when Biden was surging in the polls across the nation -- says something about the overall steadiness of this race in the Keystone state and elsewhere. The case for narrowing in Pennsylvania is less solid than, say, Florida, and it is mainly due to polls like these.

Texas
(Trump 49, Biden 46)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +1.20]
September polls in Texas have been dominated by a host of small leads for the president, a group that now includes this UMass-Lowell. It was the first survey of the Lone Star state from the university pollster and is consistent with the average share of support Biden enjoys in the state, but has Trump a bit out in front of his. Still, that 49 precent share of support is not foreign to the president. It just happens to be toward the upper end of his range in recent polling in Texas. Like North Carolina, Texas remains close. Unlike the Tar Heel state, however, it is tipped in Trump's direction.

Wisconsin
(Biden 48, Trump 46 via Susquehanna | Biden 48, Trump 45 via Trafalgar)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +6.21]
Some of the above is good for the president, but the pair of polls out of Wisconsin today represented the brightest ray of hope for Trump. The Badger state had not seen a poll with a Biden lead less than four points all month until these two polls. However, both have Biden slightly under his FHQ average share of support in the state and Trump right at the upper end of his range in group of September polls that have all too often found him in the lower 40s.


Also added:

• June, July, August and September waves of Rust Belt polling in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin form Survey Monkey. [Be aware that the September wave is still being updated until the end of the month. Those numbers can shift and have shifted and will be updated at FHQ as they do.]
• Battleground polling from Hart Research Associates out of Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2020 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
DC-3 MA-11 (14)2	CT-7 (162)	WI-10 (253)	AK-3 (125)	AL-9 (60)
HI-4 (18)	NJ-14 (176)	PA-203 (273 | 285)	MO-10 (122)	IN-11 (51)
CA-55 (73)	OR-7 (183)	NV-6 (279 | 265)	SC-9 (112)	UT-6 (40)
VT-3 (76)	NM-5 (188)	AZ-11 (290 | 259)	KS-6 (103)	KY-8 (34)
MD-10 (86)	ME-2 (190)	FL-29 ME CD2-1 (320 | 248)	MT-3 NE CD1-1 (97)	SD-3 (26)
NY-29 (115)	CO-9 (199)	NC-15 (335 | 218)	LA-8 (93)	ID-4 (23)
WA-12 ME CD1-1 (128)	VA-13 (212)	GA-16 (203)	MS-6 (85)	ND-3 (19)
RI-4 (132)	MN-10 (222)	OH-18 (187)	AR-6 (79)	OK-7 (16)
DE-3 (135)	MI-16 (238)	IA-6 (169)	NE-2 (73)	WV-5 (9)
IL-20 (155)	NE CD2-1 NH-4 (243)	TX-38 (163)	TN-11 (71)	WY-3 NE CD3-1 (4)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states plus the Pennsylvania), he would have 285 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trump's is on the right in bold italics. 3 Pennsylvania is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state. The tipping point cell is shaded in yellow to denote that and the font color is adjusted to attempt to reflect the category in which the state is.

Not only did Ohio change shades on the map and push over the partisan line into Trump territory, but it was jumped on the other side by Georgia. The Peach state settled in next to the partisan line on the Electoral College Spectrum above as the most competitive of the Trump states. But the difference between the two is negligible. But not as negligible as the one one-thousandth of a point difference in the average margins in Arizona and Florida. The two Sun Belt state remained next to each other in the order on the Spectrum but swapped spots with Florida now the closer of the two.

Further out on the blue side of the Spectrum. New Hampshire and Wisconsin once again switched places with Wisconsin rejoining the states in the competitive, middle column. And the first poll in Illinois pushed it down the bottom cell in the far left column. The same could be said for North Dakota all the way on the right end of the Spectrum. The Peace Garden state moved one cell closer to the far end of Trump's coalition of states.

All that shuffling on the Spectrum was offset by a day of little change on the Watch List. The same nine states that were there a day ago are still there with only Ohio's potential shift being different after its change to Toss Up Trump.

But for all those polls, the story remains much the same around FHQ, give or take those 18 electoral votes that keep shifting as Ohio does.



Where things stood at FHQ on September 29 (or close to it) in...
2016
2012
2008



--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State	Potential Switch
Arkansas	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Georgia	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Biden
Iowa	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Biden
Louisiana	from Lean Trump	to Strong Trump
Mississippi	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Nevada	from Toss Up Biden	to Lean Biden
Ohio	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Biden
Pennsylvania	from Lean Biden	to Toss Up Biden
Virginia	from Strong Biden	to Lean Biden
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was  too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.


--
Related posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/28/20)

The Electoral College Map (9/27/20)

The Electoral College Map (9/26/20)

Follow FHQ on Twitter, Instagram and Facebook or subscribe by Email.