The Electoral College Map (8/7/20)

Update for August 7.

Changes (August 7)
State	Before	After
Kansas	Strong Trump	Lean Trump
Utah	Lean Trump	Strong Trump

The work week closed with a mixed bag of surveys from across the country. While there were a handful of polls from more competitive battlegrounds like Iowa, Michigan and Texas, there were also a couple of surveys that were in the field in underpolled states like Kansas and Utah. The latter two updates in particular had an impact on how each is classified here at FHQ. More or less, Kansas and Utah just swapped spots with the Sunflower state shifting into Lean Trump territory and the Beehive state moving into the Strong Trump group of states.


Polling Quick Hits:
Iowa (Trump 41, Biden 40):
Outside of the Binder Research poll discussed yesterday, the margins in the polling conducted in Iowa has existed in a very tight range of tied to two points in one way or the other since May. More often than not, those advantages have been narrow ones in Trump's favor. And that is true of the RMG Research survey of the Hawkeye state as well. One could quibble with the sizable chunk of undecideds left unprompted (13 percent!) in the poll that has both candidates running well south of their FHQ average share of support. Biden and Trump are knotted at 46 (although Trump does hold a 0.3 point edge).


Kansas (Trump 50, Biden 43):
From time to time, FHQ has gotten a comment or two on Twitter about the position Kansas maintains either on map or in the rank ordering depicted on the Electoral College Spectrum. And the response was multifaceted and has always been the same. Kansas was stuck in a cluster of states just inside the lower end of the Strong Trump category, but lacked polling compared to some other states. Furthermore, I tended to add that more polling would come after the Senate primary, especially if Kris Kobach had won the Republican nomination. Well, Kobach lost on Tuesday, but Public Policy Polling went into the field to test the Senate race and polled the presidential race for good measure while the firm was at it. That new data out of the Sunflower state showed a tighter than typical presidential race. Trump in that poll was off his 2016 pace in the state by six points, right at the majority threshold. Biden, meanwhile, ran seven points ahead of Hillary Clinton's finish in the state from four years ago. That would be nearly twice the average swing across all states at FHQ. The Kansas swing at FHQ -- given all the polls there in calendar 2020 -- is a more modest ten points. That still comes in above the average shift from 2016 to 2020.



Michigan (Biden 51, Trump 40):
While FHQ pointed to the Binder Research polls as outliers for less frequently polled states included in their midwestern wave a day ago, the two polls in more often surveyed states like Michigan were more in line -- albeit on the upper end of the range -- with other surveys conducted there. FHQ raises that issue because the latest EPIC-MRA poll of the Wolverine state was similar in its margin. And yes, that Biden +11 is consistent with other recent polling in the state, but it also represents some continuity with the last survey the firm had in the field at the beginning of June. Both candidates lost a point or two but that was more a function of the inclusion of third party candidates than anything else. Michigan still appears to be less a battleground in the polls than Florida, for example.


Texas (Trump 49, Biden 43):
Sure, Trafalgar Group has taken some flak for its Republican-leaning bias, and its first trip into the field in the Lone Star state is no exception. But this poll is not exactly an outlier. No, the margin is not necessarily consistent with most recent Texas polling, but it is consistent in terms of the two candidates' respective shares of support. Trump's 49 percent is at the upper end of his range, and Biden's 43 percent share in the poll is at the lower end of his. Moreover, the Trump +6 did little to change the picture at FHQ. It kept the average margin in Texas away from the Watch List, but the Lone Star state is still just Trump +1.37, close enough that the campaign will likely have to spend some there rather than in some more traditionally competitive states.


Utah (Trump 50, Biden 31):
The polling in the Beehive state has been weird throughout calendar 2020. Only two polling outfits have been in the field there and they have shown consistent but quite different races. RMG Research has shown a more comfortable Trump advantage while Y2 Analytics has found a closer raise but with Trump remaining ahead. The latest update in Utah was from RMG Research and the survey was in line with the past polls the firm had conducted there: Trump around 50 percent and Biden mired in the low 30s. That is not that different from the results four years ago in the Beehive state, but it is off from what Republican candidates have averaged over the last three cycles (60 percent). And bear in mind that while Y2 has shown Biden in the low 40s, no Democrat has cleared 40 percent since Johnson in 1964. That Biden is in the low 30s may be improvement enough overall the 29 percent Clinton received in Utah in 2016.


NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2020 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
MA-112 (14)	NJ-14 (173)	WI-10 NE CD2-1 (253)	AK-3 (125)	UT-6 (60)
HI-4 (18)	OR-7 (180)	PA-203 (273 | 285)	MO-10 (122)	IN-11 (54)
CA-55 (73)	DE-3 (183)	FL-29 (302 | 265)	SC-9 (112)	ID-4 (43)
VT-3 (76)	CO-9 (192)	NV-6 (308 | 236)	MT-3 (103)	KY-8 (39)
NY-29 (105)	NM-5 (197)	AZ-11 (319 | 230)	KS-6 (100)	AL-9 (31)
ME CD1-1 WA-12 (118)	ME-2 (199)	NC-15 (334 | 219)	MS-6 (94)	ND-3 (22)
MD-10 (128)	VA-13 (212)	ME CD2-1 OH-18 (353 | 204)	LA-8 NE CD1-1 (88)	SD-3 (19)
IL-20 (148)	MN-10 (222)	IA-6 (185)	AR-6 (79)	OK-7 (16)
RI-4 (152)	MI-16 (238)	GA-16 (179)	NE-2 (73)	WV-5 (9)
CT-7 (159)	NH-4 (242)	TX-38 (163)	TN-11 (71)	WY-3 NE CD3-1 (4)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states plus the Pennsylvania), he would have 285 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 Pennsylvania is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state.

Iowa, Michigan and Texas all held their ground on the Electoral College Spectrum above despite new data today. Iowa remains the closest of the Trump toss ups (but not the closest state overall) and stays right there on the Trump side of the partisan line just in front of Georgia. On the other hand, Kansas jumped up four cells and took Utah's spot at the least competitive of the Lean Trump states. Utah's average expanded enough with the new polls to push it into the far right column in Trump's coalition of states, deep enough to keep the Beehive state off the Watch List.

Speaking of the List, it gained Kansas which pulled Louisiana and Nebraska's first district back on a day after the changes in Indiana pulled both off. Since there is no polling in either, their averages are tethered to the swings of states that finished near each in November 2016. That was the extent of the changes to the List today, so there are now 15 states that bear watching. If new polls come out in any, then it may mean a change to how they are classified here at FHQ.

And add underpolled Nevada to that list as well.

--
There were no new polls from Nevada today.

Days since the last Nevada poll was in the field: 99.

--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State	Potential Switch
Florida	from Toss Up Biden	to Lean Biden
Georgia	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Biden
Iowa	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Biden
Kansas	from Lean Trump	to Strong Trump
Louisiana	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Maine CD2	from Toss Up Biden	to Toss Up Trump
Minnesota	from Lean Biden	to Strong Biden
Mississippi	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Missouri	from Toss Up Trump	to Lean Trump
Nebraska CD1	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Nebraska CD2	from Lean Biden	to Toss Up Biden
Ohio	from Toss Up Biden	to Toss Up Trump
Pennsylvania	from Lean Biden	to Toss Up Biden
South Carolina	from Lean Trump	to Toss Up Trump
Virginia	from Strong Biden	to Lean Biden
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was  too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.


--
Related posts:
The Electoral College Map (8/6/20)

The Electoral College Map (8/5/20)

The Electoral College Map (8/4/20)


Follow FHQ on Twitter, Instagram and Facebook or subscribe by Email.

The Electoral College Map (8/6/20)

Update for August 6.

Changes (August 6)
State	Before	After
Maine CD2	Toss Up Trump	Toss Up Biden

A busy Thursday brought 14 new polls from 11 states across all six categories at FHQ. That is a lot at which to look and despite the temptation to think that the new data provides a more robust sense of the overall state of the race, there were a few polls in the set that appear to be outliers given existing polling to this point in 2020.

Outliers though some of today's surveys may have been, there was a second poll out of the second district in Maine that shifted the jurisdiction over the partisan line and into the Toss Up Biden category, adding to the former vice president's total. Yes, the survey favored Trump, but with multiple polls, the district is now untethered from the swings in states around which it finished in November 2016. As noted below, that has been FHQ's methodological work-around for states or districts with just one or no surveys in calendar 2020. No, a couple of polls is not a significant increase in the aggregate knowledge of the race in the rural northern district in Maine, but the picture there is of a close race. And in any event, Maine's second is now on the Watch List, within a fraction of a point of shifting back onto Toss Up Trump turf.

There is more on that below, but first a quick look at the rest of today's polling releases.


Polling Quick Hits:
Arizona (Biden 47, Trump 44):
Data for Progress had a round of battleground polling in four states including Arizona. There were two versions of each poll, one with third party candidates and another with leaners (pushed with a follow up question). Over the years, FHQ has used third party candidate polls when available but has also added leaners polls when a distinction was made between versions with or without leaners. But rarely have pollsters provided two separate versions along these lines. Since the third party responses were volunteered and disappeared upon a follow up, FHQ will use the leaners versions of these polls. But note that in all cases that means a slightly larger margin for Biden, one that did not change the FHQ classification of any of the four states.

As for the Arizona survey from DfP itself, it varies little from the averages established for both candidates here at FHQ. As it stands now in the averages, Biden leads 47.5 to Trump's 44.


Indiana (Trump 55, Biden 38):
The recent wave of Morning Consult surveys in red states with potentially competitive Senate races also included a poll of the presidential race in Indiana. And although the polling has been sporadic and scarce in the Hoosier state in calendar 2020, what survey work has been done there has consistently found Biden in the upper 30s. The cause for any variance in the margins across Indiana polling so far has been Trump's share of support. But this survey has the president at his high water mark and nudges the average closer to where things were on election day in 2016. Indiana may be closer in 2020, but it remains a Strong Trump state.


Iowa (Trump 46, Biden 45 via Data for Progress | Biden 49, Trump 43 via David Binder Research):
Of the two surveys released out of the Hawkeye state, the DfP poll is more in line with where things stand given the full set of polls in the state in 2020. The Binder Research poll? Well, it simultaneously finds Biden at his apex in the state and Trump at his low point during 2020. If the former is consistent with the aggregated (and weighted) picture in Iowa, then the latter is very much an outlier (and that is largely true for the other three midwestern surveys from Binder). And while that outlier did not alter Iowa's standing at a toss up state tipped toward the president, it was enough to push the state not only onto the Watch List below but right up against the partisan line on the Electoral College Spectrum.


Kentucky (Trump 52, Biden 45 via Bluegrass Data Analytics | Trump 50, Biden 41 via Quinnipiac):
Speaking of outliers, there may be a pair of them represented in the releases out of Kentucky today. The Bluegrass state has not finished a single digit race since Bill Clinton carried the state by less than a point during his reelection bid in 1996. Kentucky may be closer in 2020 than it has been in recent cycles, but both of these polls have Biden well ahead of not only where Clinton was in 2016 but where Democrats have been on average there over the last three cycles. The same is true for Trump, but in reverse. The best way to put these two polls into context is to compare them to the average swing across all states from 2016 to 2020. On average, the shift has been about seven and three-quarters points toward the Democrats. Together, these surveys would represent a 22 point swing. There have been some large shifts in some states from election day 2016 to aggregated polling now, but none of them have been close to 22 points.


Maine (Biden 53, Trump 43 via Data for Progress | Biden 52, Trump 37 via Quinnipiac):
Meanwhile in Maine, things look a bit more normal. A Biden +10 and a Biden +15. Split the difference and one basically has something close to the FHQ average margin in the Pine Tree state: Biden +11.73. As always, follow the averages rather than the individual polls.


Maine CD1 (Biden 61, Trump 30):
The Quinnipiac survey of Maine also included a breakdown by congressional district and the picture in the pair looks largely as expected. Biden has larger lead in the more southern of the two districts, but the margin there has ballooned compared to how things were in November 2016 when Clinton won the first by around 15 points. Regardless, the district is a safe electoral vote for Biden with or without this poll.


Maine CD2 (Trump 45, Biden 44):
The second district is more competitive. And that has been borne out of the early polling there. While Trump won the second comfortably in 2016, that ten point advantage has disappeared, giving way to a very small Biden lead now. Like the first, the second district in Maine seems locked in, albeit as a toss up -- for one candidate or the other -- rather than safe.


Michigan (Biden 51, Trump 41):
While the two less frequently surveyed states of the Binder Research midwestern series are more clearly outliers, the Michigan poll is among the couple that has been both polled more often and is more in line with other polling in those states. [Wisconsin is the other.] But while that is true, the Biden +10 is on the upper end of the range of recent poll releases out of the Wolverine state. And that is more a function of Biden being over 50 percent than it is Trump's share of support. The president has been more steady in the low 40s there.


Minnesota (Biden 54, Trump 36):
Like the one in Iowa, the Binder poll in Minnesota is an outlier. Other polls of the Land of 10,000 Lakes have had Biden north of 50 percent, but none have had Trump as low as the mid-30s there. That is the story from this small sample survey. As in Iowa, it bumped the average margin in Minnesota up enough to put the state on the Watch List. But Minnesota is treading a different line than Iowa, out between the Lean and Strong Biden categories. But for now Minnesota remains a lean.


North Carolina (Biden 49, Trump 45):
In the Tar Heel state, Data for Progress found Biden up four points with the former vice president running a couple of points ahead of his FHQ average share of support. Trump, meanwhile, was right on his. Both were enough to inch the average margin in North Carolina closer to two points. Biden's has been a fairly steady but narrow lead there.


Oklahoma (Trump 56, Biden 36):
A new DFM Research survey of the Sooner state shows that while Oklahoma continues to be a safe Republican state, there has been a shift in the 2020 polling there toward the Democrats as compared to the results in 2016. And in the case of Oklahoma, that shift as measured at FHQ has been one of the largest out there. This survey, an internal Democratic poll, is right on the candidates' respective shares of support in the FHQ averages, which represents a 14-15 point shift from 2016. Yes, that is a pretty big shift in one of the most Republican states in 2016, but it is much less an outlier swing than the Kentucky example above. And the bottom line is that Oklahoma is still a safe Republican state.


South Carolina (Trump 47, Biden 42):
The Palmetto state is probably a safe bet for Trump in November too. But of late South Carolina has settled into a mid-single digit lead area for the president. And the latest survey of the state from Quinnipiac builds on that outlook. Trump is ahead but is more off his 2016 pace than Biden has improved upon Clinton's showing there four years ago. And the healthy chunk of undecideds likely affects Trump's lagging numbers as well. But this is a poll that reduced the FHQ average margin to within a point of the Toss Up/Lean line on Trump's side of the ledger.


Wisconsin (Biden 53, Trump 42):
Last but not least is the Binder Research survey of Wisconsin. Look, the story with this poll in the Badger state is much the same as the one for the Michigan poll above. It may not be an outlier by definition, but it is definitely on the upper end of the range of margins in recent polling there. Despite that, Wisconsin continues to be lodged in the heart of the Lean Biden category and that is still a significant story in a state that was among the most competitive in 2016. That it is tipped more than six points in Biden's direction says a lot about where this race stands overall at the moment.


NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2020 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
MA-112 (14)	NJ-14 (173)	WI-10 NE CD2-1 (253)	AK-3 (125)	TN-11 (65)
HI-4 (18)	OR-7 (180)	PA-203 (273 | 285)	MO-10 (122)	IN-11 (54)
CA-55 (73)	DE-3 (183)	FL-29 (302 | 265)	SC-9 (112)	ID-4 (43)
VT-3 (76)	CO-9 (192)	NV-6 (308 | 236)	MT-3 (103)	KY-8 (39)
NY-29 (105)	NM-5 (197)	AZ-11 (319 | 230)	UT-6 (100)	AL-9 (31)
ME CD1-1 WA-12 (118)	ME-2 (199)	NC-15 (334 | 219)	MS-6 (94)	ND-3 (22)
MD-10 (128)	VA-13 (212)	ME CD2-1 OH-18 (353 | 204)	AR-6 (88)	SD-3 (19)
IL-20 (148)	MN-10 (222)	IA-6 (185)	LA-8 NE CD1-1 (82)	OK-7 (16)
RI-4 (152)	MI-16 (238)	GA-16 (179)	KS-6 (73)	WV-5 (9)
CT-7 (159)	NH-4 (242)	TX-38 (163)	NE-2 (67)	WY-3 NE CD3-1 (4)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states plus the Pennsylvania), he would have 285 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 Pennsylvania is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state.

A lot of new polls brought a number of changes in the order on the Spectrum above. Maine's first district pushed deeper into the far Democratic column while Maine's second moved across the partisan line into Biden territory. That may have changed the overall tally of electoral votes, but Iowa also moved up to the partisan line as well. It is now the most competitive state on Trump's side of the line. Ohio remains the closest overall. Indiana and Kentucky also shifted around within the safest group of red states, but moved in opposite directions given new data. Indiana broke out of a cluster near the Strong/Lean Trump line and Kentucky moved closer to the top of the far right column on the Spectrum. Both are now in that column.

The Watch List below lost Indiana, Louisiana and Nebraska's second district (the latter two because, with no 2020 polls, they were partially tethered to the swing in the Hoosier state), but gained Iowa, Minnesota and South Carolina. While the former trio of jurisdictions were on the cusp of shifting into Lean Trump territory, all are now more safely Strong Trump. And the new group of states are each now within a fraction of a point of moving in a Biden direction toward the adjacent categories. But only an Iowa change would affect any alteration to the overall electoral vote tally.

And add underpolled Nevada to that list as well.

--
There were no new polls from Nevada today.

Days since the last Nevada poll was in the field: 98.

--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State	Potential Switch
Florida	from Toss Up Biden	to Lean Biden
Georgia	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Biden
Iowa	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Biden
Maine CD2	from Toss Up Biden	to Toss Up Trump
Minnesota	from Lean Biden	to Strong Biden
Mississippi	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Missouri	from Toss Up Trump	to Lean Trump
Nebraska CD2	from Lean Biden	to Toss Up Biden
Ohio	from Toss Up Biden	to Toss Up Trump
Pennsylvania	from Lean Biden	to Toss Up Biden
South Carolina	from Lean Trump	to Toss Up Trump
Utah	from Lean Trump	to Strong Trump
Virginia	from Strong Biden	to Lean Biden
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was  too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.


--
Related posts:
The Electoral College Map (8/5/20)

The Electoral College Map (8/4/20)

The Electoral College Map (8/3/20)


Follow FHQ on Twitter, Instagram and Facebook or subscribe by Email.

The Electoral College Map (8/5/20)

Update for August 5.

Changes (August 5)
State	Before	After
Ohio	Toss Up Trump	Toss Up Biden

There are now just 90 days until election day on November 3. And that threshold has been marked by a change to the map here at FHQ. Ohio has once again hopped the partisan line in the order of states below and shifted to a Biden toss up. However, the Buckeye state, like Pennsylvania during the latter half of July, is a state constantly teetering on the brink of a change, hovering near the line that separates Biden's and Trump's respective coalitions of states. In other words, even though this change restores the map to what it was when FHQ began these near daily updates in mid-June, Ohio is in a position where that could change as new polling data is introduced.

And not to return once again to this well, but if Ohio is among the most competitive states -- and it is the most competitive on the map at the moment -- on November 3, then it says a lot about where the election is likely headed.


Polling Quick Hits:
Hawaii (Biden 56, Trump 29):
Yesterday, there were a handful of polls from reliably red or blue states that helped fill out the picture on the extremes of both candidates' current coalitions. Today adds another poll from such state, and it is the first survey in the field in Hawaii in calendar 2020. Unsurprisingly, Biden leads and comfortably in the MRG Research poll, but his share of support in the poll is behind where Clinton ended up in the Aloha state in November 2016. But there was a large share of undecideds (10 percent).


Florida (Biden 43, Trump 43):
Zogby Analytics had an interesting series of battleground polls from a quartet of states. But it was an interesting set taken together. Inconsistent with other recent polling, Florida was the most competitive  of the bunch while Ohio and Pennsylvania were less tipped toward Biden than North Carolina. All four were within four points of each other which is a seemingly tight range. Yet, at FHQ the spread between the is right at five points, but the order of the states is different. Such outcomes are not that atypical within a group in that sort of range, but it does look off when Florida and Pennsylvania have consistently been more Biden-favorable in polls than North Carolina and Ohio have been. The tie in Florida in particular is on the very low end of the range of margins in the Sunshine state in 2020 polling there.


Iowa (Biden 47, Trump 47):
Monmouth was also out with another state-level survey with different samples and assumptions about what turnout may look like in November. As was the case with the earlier Georgia and Pennsylvania polls from Monmouth, the new Iowa poll had a range of results that differ based on the assumptions made. And like those earlier state-level polls the race got more competitive as the sample moved from registered to likely and from likely (high turnout) to likely (low turnout). But in the Hawkeye state that meant the race got more positive for Biden through that succession instead of more Trump-friendly. But FHQ has taken to using the low turnout version and does so again in this instance. That said, for context, the change in the averages is about half a point. Trump's already narrow advantage in Iowa dips from 1.5 points with the registered sample included to just a bit more than a point (and just off the Watch List) with the low turnout assumption.


Michigan (Biden 53, Trump 41):
Hodas and Associates was again in the field in July in the blue wall states that Trump flipped in 2016. And again, as in June, they collectively and individually paint a rather rosy picture for Joe Biden. In the Michigan survey, however, the former vice president saw both his margin and share of support slip from June to July while still maintaining a double digit lead. That Biden +12 is not necessarily an outlier, but it is on the upper end of the range in the Wolverine state in late July polling. More importantly, it was outdated enough in early August that the impact was reduced in the FHQ graduated weighted average. While it boosted Biden's overall advantage here in the state, it remained around Biden +7.5.


North Carolina (Biden 44, Trump 40):
The survey of the Tar Heel state from Zogby Analytics was in line with other recent polling in the field in the state. But while the margin may have been consistent, neither candidate's share of support was. Both were on the low end with inflated (unprompted) undecideds. But while Biden's share in the poll was off by almost three points from the FHQ average share, Trump's was lower by more than five points.


Ohio (Biden 43, Trump 41):
The same thing was true of the Zogby Analytics survey in Ohio as well. Yes, the two point Biden edge was enough to tip the Buckeye state over the partisan line into Biden territory, but with a higher than typical share of undecideds, both candidates ran behind their established averages at FHQ, but Trump was disproportionately affected, running four points behind where the aggregated polling outlook has the president in the Buckeye state. These polls may not be outliers with respect to their margins, but their shares of support for the two major party candidates is well below where they have tended to be in all four states.


Pennsylvania (Biden 44, Trump 43 via Zogby Analytics | Biden 51, Trump 45 via Hodas & Associates):
Rather than go broken record and repeat the same story about Zogby, there was a Hodas poll more worthy of a discussion. Like the Michigan poll above, Biden led in July, but by less than was true in June. Like the Michigan survey, the Pennsylvania poll also saw the margin decrease by six points. By unlike the still-rosy picture in Michigan, the Pennsylvania results were right in line with where FHQ currently has the race in the Keystone state pegged: in the mid-single digits. Biden's share of support was still north of 50 percent and that has been a facet of these Hodas polls over the last couple of months. Overall, however, Pennsylvania remains just above the Lean/Toss up line in the Lean Biden category.


Wisconsin (Biden 52, Trump 38):
Finally, in the Badger state, Hodas and Associates also found Biden out to a big lead. But yes, it also trailed off some from the 17 point advantage Biden had in Wisconsin in the June wave of blue wall surveys. And even though the margin shrank, Biden's +14 in this poll is still on the high side of the range of polling in the Badger state. Most of that is a function of Trump's low standing in these polls. The president comes in again under 40 percent, four points behind his FHQ average share of support.


NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2020 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
MA-112 (14)	NJ-14 (173)	WI-10 NE CD2-1 (253)	AK-3 (125)	TN-11 (56)
HI-4 (18)	OR-7 (180)	PA-203 (273 | 285)	MO-10 (122)	NE-2 (45)
CA-55 (73)	DE-3 (183)	FL-29 (302 | 265)	SC-9 (112)	ID-4 (43)
VT-3 (76)	CO-9 (192)	NV-6 (308 | 236)	MT-3 (103)	AL-9 (39)
NY-29 (105)	NM-5 (197)	AZ-11 (319 | 230)	UT-6 (100)	ND-3 (30)
WA-12 (117)	ME-2 (199)	NC-15 (334 | 219)	LA-8 NE CD1-1 (94)	SD-3 (27)
MD-10 (127)	VA-13 (212)	OH-18 (352 | 204)	MS-6 (85)	KY-8 (24)
IL-20 (147)	MN-10 (222)	GA-16 (186)	IN-11 (79)	OK-7 (16)
RI-4 ME CD1-1 (152)	MI-16 (238)	IA-6 (170)	AR-6 (68)	WV-5 (9)
CT-7 (159)	NH-4 (242)	TX-38 ME CD2-1 (164)	KS-6 (62)	WY-3 NE CD3-1 (4)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states plus the Pennsylvania), he would have 285 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 Pennsylvania is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state.

There were nine new polls from eight different states released today, and with the exception of maybe the Iowa survey, all of them were quirky in one way or another. Quirks though many of those surveys may have contained, they did not fundamentally shake things up here at FHQ. Yes, Ohio jumped back onto Biden turf, but a slight breeze could have accomplished that as close as the Buckeye state was in the averages before that Zogby survey was added. Again, new polling data may take Ohio back over the partisan line when it is introduced. The state remains the closest and that should be expected rather than not, barring a further large national shift in Biden's direction. Everything else stayed the same in the rank ordering of states depicted on the Electoral College Spectrum above.

But the Watch List lost one state. Wisconsin nudged over the six point barrier and is no longer within a point of shifting from a Lean to Toss up Biden state. But that push across the six point barrier was fueled by a (somewhat outdated) outlier. In other words, its addition was discounted, but still pushed the average margin up enough (but just by two one hundredths of a point). Everything else other than Ohio stayed the same on the List. Those 12 states remain the ones to watch, where polling data may trigger a change.

And add underpolled Nevada to that list as well.

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There were also no new polls from Nevada today.

Days since the last Nevada poll was in the field: 97.

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NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State	Potential Switch
Florida	from Toss Up Biden	to Lean Biden
Georgia	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Biden
Indiana	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Louisiana	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Mississippi	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Missouri	from Toss Up Trump	to Lean Trump
Nebraska CD1	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Nebraska CD2	from Lean Biden	to Toss Up Biden
Ohio	from Toss Up Biden	to Toss Up Trump
Pennsylvania	from Lean Biden	to Toss Up Biden
Utah	from Lean Trump	to Strong Trump
Virginia	from Strong Biden	to Lean Biden
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

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Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was  too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.


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Related posts:
The Electoral College Map (8/4/20)

The Electoral College Map (8/3/20)

The Electoral College Map (8/2/20)


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