The Democratic National Committee Rules and Bylaws Committee (RBC) met via conference call on Tuesday, May 12 to consider a number of issues raised by coronavirus pandemic.
Most of the actions taken had been telegraphed before the meeting, but there remained some interesting questions brought up during the meeting in response to some of the agenda items. The easiest hurdles to clear came from state parties' reactions to the public health crisis and its impact on the electoral and delegate selection processes there.
Several states have moved since mid-March to points on the primary calendar beyond what is allowed under DNC rules. Decision makers in Connecticut, Delaware, Kentucky, Louisiana, New Jersey and New York all settled on dates beyond the June 9 cut off established in the rules.1 And all of those states but Connecticut had waiver requests before the RBC today. All were unanimously approved.
Beyond that thumbs up on the state-level changes before them today, RBC co-chair, Jim Roosevelt, also revealed that the delegate apportionment to states would remain the same. States will not receive any further bonus delegates for moves to later dates on the calendar, and as of now, the above states either have received waivers that allows them to skirt any penalties from rules violations or are in discussions with the RBC about their respective situations. Connecticut Democrats fall into the latter category and are between a rock and a hard place with the August 11 primary date state government decision makers landed on falling just a few days before the convention is set to start. That is another state party that will eventually have to bring delegate selection plan changes before the RBC in the near future. Puerto Rico Democrats face the same dilemma. The primary in the US territory was indefinitely postponed in April but the party is eyeing a July 5 or 12 primary date that would also require a waiver from the RBC.
But the bigger items on the RBC's agenda dealt with the national convention. The committee unanimously passed resolutions to allow state parties to use virtual means to complete their delegate selection processes as long as that did not include primaries or precinct caucuses. Then, however, the body moved on to a more encompassing resolution on convention procedure. There were a couple of main aims that the the RBC was targeting. First, given the public health crisis, the RBC members were concerned with the safety of delegates able to attend the convention in Milwaukee but also the citizens of the city as well. But second, the committee also sought to conduct the business of the convention under the circumstances that the coronavirus has created. Both meant that the RBC had to make changes to the rules where there is no contingency for such conditions.
The resolution attempts to address those twin issues. Procedurally, it allows the convention Rules and Credentials Committees to be the sole arbiters of their respective reports. They will not go before the full convention unless there is a minority report issued as well. That provision did raise some concerns with several members of the committee who were concerned about that (minority report) outlet and what would constitute a passing vote in the committee or on the floor. Would it be a simple majority of those present or a majority of all of the total number of delegates? The distinction matters, especially in the context of a convention that may see some delegates in person in an arena in Milwaukee and some at home. The tentative conclusion was that at past conventions, it had been the simple majority.
And while all of that may get too far into the weeds of convention process, it does matter. More broadly, the resolution also granted the DNC the flexibility to allow the participation of some delegates from afar.
That measure unanimously passed the RBC but has to go before the full DNC for approval before it takes effect.
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1 New York Democrats are in limbo to some extent with their primary. The decision to reinstate the June 23 Democratic presidential primary in the Empire state is being appealed to the US Second Circuit Court of Appeals, and any changes made in the wake of that decision could push the New York Democratic Party back before the RBC in the coming days if any cancelation forces further changes to the amended delegate selection plan.
Tuesday, May 12, 2020
Monday, May 11, 2020
2020 Democratic Delegate Allocation: NEBRASKA
NEBRASKA
Election type: primary
Date: May 12
Number of delegates: 33 [6 at-large, 3 PLEOs, 20 congressional district, 4 automatic/superdelegates]
Allocation method: proportional statewide and at the congressional district level
Threshold to qualify for delegates: 15%
2016: proportional caucuses
Delegate selection plan
--
Changes since 2016
If one followed the 2016 series on the Republican process here at FHQ, then you may end up somewhat disappointed. The two national parties manage the presidential nomination process differently. The Republican National Committee is much less hands-on in regulating state and state party activity in the delegate selection process than the Democratic National Committee is. That leads to a lot of variation from state to state and from cycle to cycle on the Republican side. Meanwhile, the DNC is much more top down in its approach. Thresholds stay the same. It is a 15 percent barrier that candidates must cross in order to qualify for delegates. That is standard across all states. The allocation of delegates is roughly proportional. Again, that is applied to every state.
That does not mean there are no changes. The calendar has changed as have other facets of the process such as whether a state has a primary or a caucus.
Unlike some states where most of the changes from 2016 to 2020 occurred because of the coronavirus in 2020, Nebraska Democrats saw changes to their delegate selection on both sides of the pandemic. The biggest pre-coronavirus changes instituted were in response to the Democratic National Committee rules changes encouraging increased participation in the delegate selection process. In December 2018, Nebraska Democrats opted to shift from the caucuses the party had used from 2008-2016 to the state-run primary. That not only changed the format for participation but also had the effect pushing the date of the Nebraska Democratic delegate selection event back by more than two months.
After the coronavirus pandemic turned the 2020 presidential nomination process upside down, the initial reaction from the state government was to mail early/absentee voting applications to all eligible Nebraska voters. But that late March decision was followed by another executive order that canceled all in-person voting in the May 12 primary.
All ballots are due to county elections offices by 8pm (CT) Tuesday, May 12. That is received and not postmarked by May 12.
[Please see below for more on the post-coronavirus changes specifically to the delegate selection process.]
Overall, the Democratic delegation in Nebraska changed by three delegates from 2016 to 2020. The number of pledged delegates increased by four (three district delegates and one at-large delegate), but lost one superdelegate. The majority of the increase to the delegation was based on the later contest. That move from March in 2016 to May in 2020 qualified the state party for bonus delegates.
Thresholds
The standard 15 percent qualifying threshold applies both statewide and on the congressional district level.
Delegate allocation (at-large and PLEO delegates)
To win any at-large or PLEO (pledged Party Leader and Elected Officials) delegates a candidate must win 15 percent of the statewide vote. Only the votes of those candidates above the threshold will count for the purposes of the separate allocation of these two pools of delegates.
See New Hampshire synopsis for an example of how the delegate allocation math works for all categories of delegates.
Delegate allocation (congressional district delegates)
Nebraska's 20 congressional district delegates are split across three congressional districts and have a variation of five delegates across districts from the measure of Democratic strength Nebraska Democrats are using based on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections in the state. That method apportions delegates as follows...
CD1 - 7 delegates*
CD2 - 9 delegates*
CD3 - 4 delegates
*Bear in mind that districts with odd numbers of national convention delegates are potentially important to winners (and those above the qualifying threshold) within those districts. Rounding up for an extra delegate initially requires less in those districts than in districts with even numbers of delegates.
Delegate allocation (automatic delegates/superdelegates)
Superdelegates are free to align with a candidate of their choice at a time of their choosing. While their support may be a signal to voters in their state (if an endorsement is made before voting in that state), superdelegates will only vote on the first ballot at the national convention if half of the total number of delegates -- pledged plus superdelegates -- have been pledged to one candidate. Otherwise, superdelegates are locked out of the voting unless 1) the convention adopts rules that allow them to vote or 2) the voting process extends to a second ballot. But then all delegates, not just superdelegates will be free to vote for any candidate.
[NOTE: All Democratic delegates are pledged and not bound to their candidates. They are to vote in good conscience for the candidate to whom they have been pledged, but technically do not have to. But they tend to because the candidates and their campaigns are involved in vetting and selecting their delegates through the various selection processes on the state level. Well, the good campaigns are anyway.]
Selection
The 20 Nebraska district delegates will be selected by district caucuses (subdivided by presidential preference) at the virtual state convention on June 13 via phone/video conference. That is a week later than the in-person state convention had been planned prior to the outbreak of the coronavirus. Post-primary virtual county conventions that feed into the district and state conventions will be held May 17-31. That, too, is marginally later than was originally planned. In-person county conventions were initially slated to fall in a May 14-24 window. Smaller Nebraska counties -- those with fewer than 50,000 residents -- will conduct their teleconference conventions from May 17-24 while the four largest counties in the Cornhusker state will distribute paper ballots on May 17 to be returned to the state party by May 27. Virtual conventions will follow in those largest counties on May 30-31.
The PLEO and then at-large delegates will be selected on June 14 at and by the virtual state convention based on the statewide results in the primary. Again, the May county conventions choose delegates to attend the virtual state convention.
Importantly, if a candidate drops out of the race before the selection of statewide delegates, then any statewide delegates allocated to that candidate will be reallocated to the remaining candidates. If Candidate X is in the race in mid June when the Nebraska statewide delegate selection takes place but Candidate Y is not, then any statewide delegates allocated to Candidate Y in the May party-run primary would be reallocated to Candidate X. [This same feature is not something that applies to district delegates.] This reallocation only applies if a candidate has fully dropped out. This is less likely to be a factor with just Biden left as the only viable candidate in the race, but Sanders could still gain statewide delegates by finishing with more than 15 percent statewide. Under a new deal struck between the Biden and Sanders camps, Biden will be allocated (or reallocated) all of the statewide delegates in a given state. However, during the selection process, the state party will select Sanders-aligned delegate candidates in proportion to the share of the qualified statewide vote.
Election type: primary
Date: May 12
Number of delegates: 33 [6 at-large, 3 PLEOs, 20 congressional district, 4 automatic/superdelegates]
Allocation method: proportional statewide and at the congressional district level
Threshold to qualify for delegates: 15%
2016: proportional caucuses
Delegate selection plan
--
Changes since 2016
If one followed the 2016 series on the Republican process here at FHQ, then you may end up somewhat disappointed. The two national parties manage the presidential nomination process differently. The Republican National Committee is much less hands-on in regulating state and state party activity in the delegate selection process than the Democratic National Committee is. That leads to a lot of variation from state to state and from cycle to cycle on the Republican side. Meanwhile, the DNC is much more top down in its approach. Thresholds stay the same. It is a 15 percent barrier that candidates must cross in order to qualify for delegates. That is standard across all states. The allocation of delegates is roughly proportional. Again, that is applied to every state.
That does not mean there are no changes. The calendar has changed as have other facets of the process such as whether a state has a primary or a caucus.
Unlike some states where most of the changes from 2016 to 2020 occurred because of the coronavirus in 2020, Nebraska Democrats saw changes to their delegate selection on both sides of the pandemic. The biggest pre-coronavirus changes instituted were in response to the Democratic National Committee rules changes encouraging increased participation in the delegate selection process. In December 2018, Nebraska Democrats opted to shift from the caucuses the party had used from 2008-2016 to the state-run primary. That not only changed the format for participation but also had the effect pushing the date of the Nebraska Democratic delegate selection event back by more than two months.
After the coronavirus pandemic turned the 2020 presidential nomination process upside down, the initial reaction from the state government was to mail early/absentee voting applications to all eligible Nebraska voters. But that late March decision was followed by another executive order that canceled all in-person voting in the May 12 primary.
All ballots are due to county elections offices by 8pm (CT) Tuesday, May 12. That is received and not postmarked by May 12.
[Please see below for more on the post-coronavirus changes specifically to the delegate selection process.]
Overall, the Democratic delegation in Nebraska changed by three delegates from 2016 to 2020. The number of pledged delegates increased by four (three district delegates and one at-large delegate), but lost one superdelegate. The majority of the increase to the delegation was based on the later contest. That move from March in 2016 to May in 2020 qualified the state party for bonus delegates.
Thresholds
The standard 15 percent qualifying threshold applies both statewide and on the congressional district level.
Delegate allocation (at-large and PLEO delegates)
To win any at-large or PLEO (pledged Party Leader and Elected Officials) delegates a candidate must win 15 percent of the statewide vote. Only the votes of those candidates above the threshold will count for the purposes of the separate allocation of these two pools of delegates.
See New Hampshire synopsis for an example of how the delegate allocation math works for all categories of delegates.
Delegate allocation (congressional district delegates)
Nebraska's 20 congressional district delegates are split across three congressional districts and have a variation of five delegates across districts from the measure of Democratic strength Nebraska Democrats are using based on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections in the state. That method apportions delegates as follows...
CD1 - 7 delegates*
CD2 - 9 delegates*
CD3 - 4 delegates
*Bear in mind that districts with odd numbers of national convention delegates are potentially important to winners (and those above the qualifying threshold) within those districts. Rounding up for an extra delegate initially requires less in those districts than in districts with even numbers of delegates.
Delegate allocation (automatic delegates/superdelegates)
Superdelegates are free to align with a candidate of their choice at a time of their choosing. While their support may be a signal to voters in their state (if an endorsement is made before voting in that state), superdelegates will only vote on the first ballot at the national convention if half of the total number of delegates -- pledged plus superdelegates -- have been pledged to one candidate. Otherwise, superdelegates are locked out of the voting unless 1) the convention adopts rules that allow them to vote or 2) the voting process extends to a second ballot. But then all delegates, not just superdelegates will be free to vote for any candidate.
[NOTE: All Democratic delegates are pledged and not bound to their candidates. They are to vote in good conscience for the candidate to whom they have been pledged, but technically do not have to. But they tend to because the candidates and their campaigns are involved in vetting and selecting their delegates through the various selection processes on the state level. Well, the good campaigns are anyway.]
Selection
The 20 Nebraska district delegates will be selected by district caucuses (subdivided by presidential preference) at the virtual state convention on June 13 via phone/video conference. That is a week later than the in-person state convention had been planned prior to the outbreak of the coronavirus. Post-primary virtual county conventions that feed into the district and state conventions will be held May 17-31. That, too, is marginally later than was originally planned. In-person county conventions were initially slated to fall in a May 14-24 window. Smaller Nebraska counties -- those with fewer than 50,000 residents -- will conduct their teleconference conventions from May 17-24 while the four largest counties in the Cornhusker state will distribute paper ballots on May 17 to be returned to the state party by May 27. Virtual conventions will follow in those largest counties on May 30-31.
The PLEO and then at-large delegates will be selected on June 14 at and by the virtual state convention based on the statewide results in the primary. Again, the May county conventions choose delegates to attend the virtual state convention.
Importantly, if a candidate drops out of the race before the selection of statewide delegates, then any statewide delegates allocated to that candidate will be reallocated to the remaining candidates. If Candidate X is in the race in mid June when the Nebraska statewide delegate selection takes place but Candidate Y is not, then any statewide delegates allocated to Candidate Y in the May party-run primary would be reallocated to Candidate X. [This same feature is not something that applies to district delegates.] This reallocation only applies if a candidate has fully dropped out. This is less likely to be a factor with just Biden left as the only viable candidate in the race, but Sanders could still gain statewide delegates by finishing with more than 15 percent statewide. Under a new deal struck between the Biden and Sanders camps, Biden will be allocated (or reallocated) all of the statewide delegates in a given state. However, during the selection process, the state party will select Sanders-aligned delegate candidates in proportion to the share of the qualified statewide vote.
Friday, May 8, 2020
How do you stage a convention in the middle of the coronavirus pandemic?
Jon Ward and Brittany Shepherd have the story at Yahoo News.
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It will take some rules changes on the Democratic side to facilitate anything other than a traditional convention. But Republicans already have language in place in Rule 37(e) of their rules covering the scenario where the party is "unable to conduct its business either within the convention site or within the convention city." It defers to the Republican National Committee to develop an alternative method for handling the roll call votes for the presidential and vice presidential nominations.
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It will take some rules changes on the Democratic side to facilitate anything other than a traditional convention. But Republicans already have language in place in Rule 37(e) of their rules covering the scenario where the party is "unable to conduct its business either within the convention site or within the convention city." It defers to the Republican National Committee to develop an alternative method for handling the roll call votes for the presidential and vice presidential nominations.
On-Again, Off-Again New York Democratic Presidential Primary is Back on Again
The late April New York State Board of Elections decision to cancel the Democratic presidential primary in the Empire state met some judicial resistance on Tuesday, May 5.
In a federal case brought by former Democratic presidential candidate, Andrew Yang, and some of those who filed to run as delegates aligned with him on the New York primary ballot, the aim was to reinstate candidates and delegates pushed off the ballot last month. It was that action -- the removal of suspended candidates from the ballot -- that was the predicate to the state board's decision regarding the primary cancelation.
But the groundwork for that maneuver was laid in the budget agreed to by the state legislature and Governor Cuomo (D). Under traditional New York state election law, the State Board of Elections has the ability to cancel a primary if only one candidate qualifies, rendering the election uncontested and superfluous. That obviously was not the case in the 2020 Democratic nomination race. Although the bar to qualify for the New York presidential primary ballot is high, Vice President Joe Biden was not the only candidate to make the ballot.
However, Biden was the only candidate who had not suspended his campaign by the time the budget deal was being finalized. And while other candidates were still technically on the ballot, all had suspended their campaigns and most had endorsed Biden. And language was inserted in the budget bill to provide the state board with an additional tool given that contingency. The board was empowered with the ability to remove candidates from the primary ballot if they were no longer actively running for the nomination. That, in turn, triggered the "only one candidate" provision that has been a part of New York election law for years.
But again, candidates, both presidential and district delegate, had qualified for the original April ballot before the primary was shifted to June 23. And when the primary was canceled in late April, that drew the ire of the newly suspended Sanders campaign and the aforementioned Yang case.
So, on the one hand, one has the argument that the cancelation suppresses the vote not only in the presidential race in New York, but in all the down ballot races in parts of the Empire state that are still on for June 23. On the other is a state government attempting to manage the public health concerns around in-person voting and the coronavirus pandemic and possible budgetary savings from scaling that primary back that would help diminished state coffers in the face of the virus.1
Now that federal judge, Analisa Torres, has issued an injunction and the June 23 Democratic presidential primary is back on, it means that elections officials in the state have lost a week of preparation with fewer than 50 days until the election. And throw on top of that a likely appeal of the decision from the state. Much of this creates more uncertainty that cuts into the time to get the ballots ready and printed and applications for absentee ballots out to eligible voters (much less returned, processed and actual ballots mailed out as well). That is a heavy lift even without considering any issues with recruiting poll workers, training them for new conditions and getting them comfortable with showing up to administer the election.
--
But push the state government implementation issues aside for a moment. There still is no answer to how the New York Democratic Party is or has responded to the primary back and forth. Should the presidential primary now go off as planned under the original delegate selection plan and the new court injunction, then the revisions the state party will have to make to the plan will be minimal.
However, there was no alternate scenario publicly shared on how the party would allocate delegates should there be no primary. Under the current plan, the party allocates all of the delegates to the candidate in an uncontested primary. But that rule hinges on (and cites) the traditional New York state election law that cancels a primary if only one candidate qualifies for the ballot. There is no contingency in the rule in the delegate selection plan that accounts for the new law, the law that eliminates candidates from the ballot who are no longer running.
A change has to be made there if the primary is canceled again under appeal.
But that is not the only change under the cancelation contingency. There also likely has to be something written into the plan -- the revisions of which will have to be reviewed and approved by the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee (DNCRBC) -- to account for the deal struck between the Biden campaign and the suspended Sanders campaign. Yes, that deal allowed Sanders to keep his statewide delegates instead of having them reallocated, but it also included a provision about the New York process in the event that there was no primary. That deal says Sanders will get some share of the delegates in the Empire state. But how that process is conducted, who is doing the selecting (especially with district delegates no longer directly elected on the primary ballot) and how to determine Sanders's share remain open questions that likely have to be dealt with in any changes the New York Democratic Party hypothetically makes to its delegate selection plan before it submits it to the DNCRBC.
In the end, there is some uncertainty that surrounds the delegate selection process in New York while Judge Torres's decision is appealed. But that uncertainty extends beyond just the state government and its administration of an election that is less than seven weeks off. It affects the state party's plans for how it will handle the delegate selection process itself with the clock ticking down to the start of a delayed national convention.
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1 Yes, Governor Cuomo issued an executive order on April 24 ensuring that absentee ballot applications would be mailed to every eligible New York voter in the June 23 primary. That decision came just days before the primary was canceled by the State Board of Elections on April 27.
In a federal case brought by former Democratic presidential candidate, Andrew Yang, and some of those who filed to run as delegates aligned with him on the New York primary ballot, the aim was to reinstate candidates and delegates pushed off the ballot last month. It was that action -- the removal of suspended candidates from the ballot -- that was the predicate to the state board's decision regarding the primary cancelation.
But the groundwork for that maneuver was laid in the budget agreed to by the state legislature and Governor Cuomo (D). Under traditional New York state election law, the State Board of Elections has the ability to cancel a primary if only one candidate qualifies, rendering the election uncontested and superfluous. That obviously was not the case in the 2020 Democratic nomination race. Although the bar to qualify for the New York presidential primary ballot is high, Vice President Joe Biden was not the only candidate to make the ballot.
However, Biden was the only candidate who had not suspended his campaign by the time the budget deal was being finalized. And while other candidates were still technically on the ballot, all had suspended their campaigns and most had endorsed Biden. And language was inserted in the budget bill to provide the state board with an additional tool given that contingency. The board was empowered with the ability to remove candidates from the primary ballot if they were no longer actively running for the nomination. That, in turn, triggered the "only one candidate" provision that has been a part of New York election law for years.
But again, candidates, both presidential and district delegate, had qualified for the original April ballot before the primary was shifted to June 23. And when the primary was canceled in late April, that drew the ire of the newly suspended Sanders campaign and the aforementioned Yang case.
So, on the one hand, one has the argument that the cancelation suppresses the vote not only in the presidential race in New York, but in all the down ballot races in parts of the Empire state that are still on for June 23. On the other is a state government attempting to manage the public health concerns around in-person voting and the coronavirus pandemic and possible budgetary savings from scaling that primary back that would help diminished state coffers in the face of the virus.1
Now that federal judge, Analisa Torres, has issued an injunction and the June 23 Democratic presidential primary is back on, it means that elections officials in the state have lost a week of preparation with fewer than 50 days until the election. And throw on top of that a likely appeal of the decision from the state. Much of this creates more uncertainty that cuts into the time to get the ballots ready and printed and applications for absentee ballots out to eligible voters (much less returned, processed and actual ballots mailed out as well). That is a heavy lift even without considering any issues with recruiting poll workers, training them for new conditions and getting them comfortable with showing up to administer the election.
--
But push the state government implementation issues aside for a moment. There still is no answer to how the New York Democratic Party is or has responded to the primary back and forth. Should the presidential primary now go off as planned under the original delegate selection plan and the new court injunction, then the revisions the state party will have to make to the plan will be minimal.
However, there was no alternate scenario publicly shared on how the party would allocate delegates should there be no primary. Under the current plan, the party allocates all of the delegates to the candidate in an uncontested primary. But that rule hinges on (and cites) the traditional New York state election law that cancels a primary if only one candidate qualifies for the ballot. There is no contingency in the rule in the delegate selection plan that accounts for the new law, the law that eliminates candidates from the ballot who are no longer running.
A change has to be made there if the primary is canceled again under appeal.
But that is not the only change under the cancelation contingency. There also likely has to be something written into the plan -- the revisions of which will have to be reviewed and approved by the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee (DNCRBC) -- to account for the deal struck between the Biden campaign and the suspended Sanders campaign. Yes, that deal allowed Sanders to keep his statewide delegates instead of having them reallocated, but it also included a provision about the New York process in the event that there was no primary. That deal says Sanders will get some share of the delegates in the Empire state. But how that process is conducted, who is doing the selecting (especially with district delegates no longer directly elected on the primary ballot) and how to determine Sanders's share remain open questions that likely have to be dealt with in any changes the New York Democratic Party hypothetically makes to its delegate selection plan before it submits it to the DNCRBC.
In the end, there is some uncertainty that surrounds the delegate selection process in New York while Judge Torres's decision is appealed. But that uncertainty extends beyond just the state government and its administration of an election that is less than seven weeks off. It affects the state party's plans for how it will handle the delegate selection process itself with the clock ticking down to the start of a delayed national convention.
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1 Yes, Governor Cuomo issued an executive order on April 24 ensuring that absentee ballot applications would be mailed to every eligible New York voter in the June 23 primary. That decision came just days before the primary was canceled by the State Board of Elections on April 27.
Thursday, May 7, 2020
Delaware Presidential Primary Pushed Back Another Five Weeks
Delaware Governor John Carney (D) on Thursday, May 7, signed yet another amendment to his state of emergency declaration in response to the coronavirus pandemic. This one, like the change in late March, shifts the presidential primary in the First state back by another five weeks to July 7.
Delaware now joins neighboring New Jersey on a date just after the Fourth of July holiday weekend. Typically, those types of summer primaries come with their own issues. Voters may find conflicts with schedule while they are on vacation, for example. But part of Carney's order addresses that issue. Not only does the presidential primary in Delaware move back another 35 days, but that buys state elections officials some additional time to send out absentee ballot applications to all eligible Delaware voters. Again, that is applications and not ballots. The additional time will also give elections officials time to process those requests and mail out ballots to those voters who are approved.
While this order opens the door to another wider form of participation in the primary, it importantly does not eliminate in-person voting. At least six sites in each county across Delaware will continue to offer in-person voting for those who prefer that option. Under the order municipalities are also given the latitude to extend the hours in which polling stations are open on primary day.
No, Delaware is not a large state and there are only 21 pledged delegates at stake in the Democratic primary, but the date change is yet another statement about the broader impact of the coronavirus pandemic on elections in 2020. This primary move is a second change for Delaware, but also one beyond the June 9 deadline by which states must have conducted their primaries or caucuses under Democratic National Committee rules. The state joins Connecticut, Kentucky, Louisiana, New Jersey and New York in that distinction.
The change in Delaware has been added to the 2020 FHQ presidential primary calendar.
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Governor Carney's emergency declaration will be archived here.
Delaware now joins neighboring New Jersey on a date just after the Fourth of July holiday weekend. Typically, those types of summer primaries come with their own issues. Voters may find conflicts with schedule while they are on vacation, for example. But part of Carney's order addresses that issue. Not only does the presidential primary in Delaware move back another 35 days, but that buys state elections officials some additional time to send out absentee ballot applications to all eligible Delaware voters. Again, that is applications and not ballots. The additional time will also give elections officials time to process those requests and mail out ballots to those voters who are approved.
While this order opens the door to another wider form of participation in the primary, it importantly does not eliminate in-person voting. At least six sites in each county across Delaware will continue to offer in-person voting for those who prefer that option. Under the order municipalities are also given the latitude to extend the hours in which polling stations are open on primary day.
No, Delaware is not a large state and there are only 21 pledged delegates at stake in the Democratic primary, but the date change is yet another statement about the broader impact of the coronavirus pandemic on elections in 2020. This primary move is a second change for Delaware, but also one beyond the June 9 deadline by which states must have conducted their primaries or caucuses under Democratic National Committee rules. The state joins Connecticut, Kentucky, Louisiana, New Jersey and New York in that distinction.
The change in Delaware has been added to the 2020 FHQ presidential primary calendar.
--
Governor Carney's emergency declaration will be archived here.
Friday, May 1, 2020
2020 Democratic Delegate Allocation: KANSAS
KANSAS
Election type: primary (party-run)
Date: May 2
Number of delegates: 45 [9 at-large, 4 PLEOs, 26 congressional district, 6 automatic/superdelegates]
Allocation method: proportional statewide and at the congressional district level
Threshold to qualify for delegates: 15%
2016: proportional caucuses
Delegate selection plan
--
Changes since 2016
If one followed the 2016 series on the Republican process here at FHQ, then you may end up somewhat disappointed. The two national parties manage the presidential nomination process differently. The Republican National Committee is much less hands-on in regulating state and state party activity in the delegate selection process than the Democratic National Committee is. That leads to a lot of variation from state to state and from cycle to cycle on the Republican side. Meanwhile, the DNC is much more top down in its approach. Thresholds stay the same. It is a 15 percent barrier that candidates must cross in order to qualify for delegates. That is standard across all states. The allocation of delegates is roughly proportional. Again, that is applied to every state.
That does not mean there are no changes. The calendar has changed as have other facets of the process such as whether a state has a primary or a caucus.
Unlike some states where most of the changes from 2016 to 2020 occurred because of the coronavirus in 2020, Kansas Democrats saw changes to their delegate selection on both sides of the pandemic. The biggest pre-coronavirus changes instituted were in response to the Democratic National Committee rules changes encouraging increased participation in the delegate selection process. Kansas Democrats' original delegate selection plan called for a May 2 party-run primary that included both in-person and mail-in ranked choice voting. That May end point was eight weeks later than the weekend after Super Tuesday date on which the Kansas Democratic caucuses were in 2016.
Those are not changes without significance. Kansas Democrats, even days before May 2, was a success story for the DNC changes in Rule 2 calling for increased participation. Even then, turnout in the mail-in party-run primary was triple what it was in the 2016 caucuses.
After the coronavirus pandemic turned the 2020 presidential nomination process upside down, the Kansas Democratic Party's initial reaction was to continue as planned with the party's delegate selection plan. They planned to retain the in-person voting component but emphasize the vote-by-mail system the groundwork of which had been laid in the original plan. This emphasis included mailing ballots to all registered Democrats in the Sunflower state. Those registered by March 30 were to have been mailed ballot by the party by April 10. Additionally, Kansas Democrats could request ballots from the party until April 24. Less than two weeks later the party opted to nix in-person voting (just as Alaska, Hawaii and Wyoming have done in party-run contests).
All ballots are due to the state party by Saturday, May 2. That is received and not postmarked by May 2.
[Please see below for more on the post-coronavirus changes specifically to the delegate selection process.]
Overall, the Democratic delegation changed by eight delegates from 2016 to 2020. The number of pledged delegates increased by six (four district delegates and two at-large delegates), and gained two superdelegates. The majority of the increase to the delegation was based on the decision of Kansas Democrats to switch to a later contest. That move from March in 2016 to May in 2020 qualified the state party for bonus delegates.
Thresholds
The standard 15 percent qualifying threshold applies both statewide and on the congressional district level.
Delegate allocation (at-large and PLEO delegates)
To win any at-large or PLEO (pledged Party Leader and Elected Officials) delegates a candidate must win 15 percent of the statewide vote. Only the votes of those candidates above the threshold will count for the purposes of the separate allocation of these two pools of delegates.
See New Hampshire synopsis for an example of how the delegate allocation math works for all categories of delegates.
Delegate allocation (congressional district delegates)
Kansas's 26 congressional district delegates are split across 4 congressional districts and have a variation of three delegates across districts from the measure of Democratic strength Kansas Democrats are using based on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections in the state. That method apportions delegates as follows...
CD1 - 5 delegates*
CD2 - 7 delegates*
CD3 - 8 delegates
CD4 - 6 delegates
*Bear in mind that districts with odd numbers of national convention delegates are potentially important to winners (and those above the qualifying threshold) within those districts. Rounding up for an extra delegate initially requires less in those districts than in districts with even numbers of delegates.
Delegate allocation (automatic delegates/superdelegates)
Superdelegates are free to align with a candidate of their choice at a time of their choosing. While their support may be a signal to voters in their state (if an endorsement is made before voting in that state), superdelegates will only vote on the first ballot at the national convention if half of the total number of delegates -- pledged plus superdelegates -- have been pledged to one candidate. Otherwise, superdelegates are locked out of the voting unless 1) the convention adopts rules that allow them to vote or 2) the voting process extends to a second ballot. But then all delegates, not just superdelegates will be free to vote for any candidate.
[NOTE: All Democratic delegates are pledged and not bound to their candidates. They are to vote in good conscience for the candidate to whom they have been pledged, but technically do not have to. But they tend to because the candidates and their campaigns are involved in vetting and selecting their delegates through the various selection processes on the state level. Well, the good campaigns are anyway.]
Selection
All 26 of the Kansas district delegates will be selected through online voting on May 29 and 30. Any registered Democrat can participate in the selection election by registering either with their congressional district chair or the state party by Monday, May 4. The PLEO and then at-large delegates will be selected on June 3-4 by the State Committee based on the statewide results in the primary. This selection will also take place virtually.
[The dates of selection have been modified for all pledged delegates because of the coronavirus. The district delegates were to have been selected in district conventions on May 16 while the PLEO and at-large delegates were to have been selected by the Kansas Democratic State Committee on June 6.]
Importantly, if a candidate drops out of the race before the selection of statewide delegates, then any statewide delegates allocated to that candidate will be reallocated to the remaining candidates. If Candidate X is in the race in early June when the Kansas statewide delegate selection takes place but Candidate Y is not, then any statewide delegates allocated to Candidate Y in the May party-run primary would be reallocated to Candidate X. [This same feature is not something that applies to district delegates.] This reallocation only applies if a candidate has fully dropped out. This is less likely to be a factor with just Biden left as the only viable candidate in the race, but Sanders could still gain statewide delegates by finishing with more than 15 percent statewide. Under a new deal struck between the Biden and Sanders camps, Biden will be allocated (or reallocated) all of the statewide delegates in a given state. However, during the selection process, the state party will select Sanders-aligned delegate candidates in proportion to the share of the qualified statewide vote.
Election type: primary (party-run)
Date: May 2
Number of delegates: 45 [9 at-large, 4 PLEOs, 26 congressional district, 6 automatic/superdelegates]
Allocation method: proportional statewide and at the congressional district level
Threshold to qualify for delegates: 15%
2016: proportional caucuses
Delegate selection plan
--
Changes since 2016
If one followed the 2016 series on the Republican process here at FHQ, then you may end up somewhat disappointed. The two national parties manage the presidential nomination process differently. The Republican National Committee is much less hands-on in regulating state and state party activity in the delegate selection process than the Democratic National Committee is. That leads to a lot of variation from state to state and from cycle to cycle on the Republican side. Meanwhile, the DNC is much more top down in its approach. Thresholds stay the same. It is a 15 percent barrier that candidates must cross in order to qualify for delegates. That is standard across all states. The allocation of delegates is roughly proportional. Again, that is applied to every state.
That does not mean there are no changes. The calendar has changed as have other facets of the process such as whether a state has a primary or a caucus.
Unlike some states where most of the changes from 2016 to 2020 occurred because of the coronavirus in 2020, Kansas Democrats saw changes to their delegate selection on both sides of the pandemic. The biggest pre-coronavirus changes instituted were in response to the Democratic National Committee rules changes encouraging increased participation in the delegate selection process. Kansas Democrats' original delegate selection plan called for a May 2 party-run primary that included both in-person and mail-in ranked choice voting. That May end point was eight weeks later than the weekend after Super Tuesday date on which the Kansas Democratic caucuses were in 2016.
Those are not changes without significance. Kansas Democrats, even days before May 2, was a success story for the DNC changes in Rule 2 calling for increased participation. Even then, turnout in the mail-in party-run primary was triple what it was in the 2016 caucuses.
After the coronavirus pandemic turned the 2020 presidential nomination process upside down, the Kansas Democratic Party's initial reaction was to continue as planned with the party's delegate selection plan. They planned to retain the in-person voting component but emphasize the vote-by-mail system the groundwork of which had been laid in the original plan. This emphasis included mailing ballots to all registered Democrats in the Sunflower state. Those registered by March 30 were to have been mailed ballot by the party by April 10. Additionally, Kansas Democrats could request ballots from the party until April 24. Less than two weeks later the party opted to nix in-person voting (just as Alaska, Hawaii and Wyoming have done in party-run contests).
All ballots are due to the state party by Saturday, May 2. That is received and not postmarked by May 2.
[Please see below for more on the post-coronavirus changes specifically to the delegate selection process.]
Overall, the Democratic delegation changed by eight delegates from 2016 to 2020. The number of pledged delegates increased by six (four district delegates and two at-large delegates), and gained two superdelegates. The majority of the increase to the delegation was based on the decision of Kansas Democrats to switch to a later contest. That move from March in 2016 to May in 2020 qualified the state party for bonus delegates.
Thresholds
The standard 15 percent qualifying threshold applies both statewide and on the congressional district level.
Delegate allocation (at-large and PLEO delegates)
To win any at-large or PLEO (pledged Party Leader and Elected Officials) delegates a candidate must win 15 percent of the statewide vote. Only the votes of those candidates above the threshold will count for the purposes of the separate allocation of these two pools of delegates.
See New Hampshire synopsis for an example of how the delegate allocation math works for all categories of delegates.
Delegate allocation (congressional district delegates)
Kansas's 26 congressional district delegates are split across 4 congressional districts and have a variation of three delegates across districts from the measure of Democratic strength Kansas Democrats are using based on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections in the state. That method apportions delegates as follows...
CD1 - 5 delegates*
CD2 - 7 delegates*
CD3 - 8 delegates
CD4 - 6 delegates
*Bear in mind that districts with odd numbers of national convention delegates are potentially important to winners (and those above the qualifying threshold) within those districts. Rounding up for an extra delegate initially requires less in those districts than in districts with even numbers of delegates.
Delegate allocation (automatic delegates/superdelegates)
Superdelegates are free to align with a candidate of their choice at a time of their choosing. While their support may be a signal to voters in their state (if an endorsement is made before voting in that state), superdelegates will only vote on the first ballot at the national convention if half of the total number of delegates -- pledged plus superdelegates -- have been pledged to one candidate. Otherwise, superdelegates are locked out of the voting unless 1) the convention adopts rules that allow them to vote or 2) the voting process extends to a second ballot. But then all delegates, not just superdelegates will be free to vote for any candidate.
[NOTE: All Democratic delegates are pledged and not bound to their candidates. They are to vote in good conscience for the candidate to whom they have been pledged, but technically do not have to. But they tend to because the candidates and their campaigns are involved in vetting and selecting their delegates through the various selection processes on the state level. Well, the good campaigns are anyway.]
Selection
All 26 of the Kansas district delegates will be selected through online voting on May 29 and 30. Any registered Democrat can participate in the selection election by registering either with their congressional district chair or the state party by Monday, May 4. The PLEO and then at-large delegates will be selected on June 3-4 by the State Committee based on the statewide results in the primary. This selection will also take place virtually.
[The dates of selection have been modified for all pledged delegates because of the coronavirus. The district delegates were to have been selected in district conventions on May 16 while the PLEO and at-large delegates were to have been selected by the Kansas Democratic State Committee on June 6.]
Importantly, if a candidate drops out of the race before the selection of statewide delegates, then any statewide delegates allocated to that candidate will be reallocated to the remaining candidates. If Candidate X is in the race in early June when the Kansas statewide delegate selection takes place but Candidate Y is not, then any statewide delegates allocated to Candidate Y in the May party-run primary would be reallocated to Candidate X. [This same feature is not something that applies to district delegates.] This reallocation only applies if a candidate has fully dropped out. This is less likely to be a factor with just Biden left as the only viable candidate in the race, but Sanders could still gain statewide delegates by finishing with more than 15 percent statewide. Under a new deal struck between the Biden and Sanders camps, Biden will be allocated (or reallocated) all of the statewide delegates in a given state. However, during the selection process, the state party will select Sanders-aligned delegate candidates in proportion to the share of the qualified statewide vote.
Thursday, April 30, 2020
What's to Know About the Statewide Delegate Reallocation Process So Far? There's not much to go on, but...
Earlier on Thursday, April 30, both the Biden campaign and the suspended Sanders campaign jointly announced that both had struck a deal to allow Sanders to keep his statewide delegates. Under the Democratic National Committee delegate selection rules, any candidate no longer running for the nomination is to lose any statewide delegates -- at-large and PLEO delegates allocated based on statewide results -- to any candidates who are still in the race and originally received at least 15 percent of the vote statewide.
The agreement made between the two campaigns would continue to follow the letter of the rule. Delegates will still be allocated -- or reallocated as the case may be -- to Biden after a primary's or caucus's results come in. However, at the time of selection statewide delegate slots in a proportion corresponding to any qualified share of the vote Sanders received (presumably over 15 percent) would be filled by Sanders-aligned delegate candidates. That has the effect of keeping the overarching reallocation rule intact for this and future cycles, but places the onus on state parties to select delegates in accordance with the statewide results in their states' contests.
--
FHQ will have more on this in a later post, but for now wanted to more closely examine the reallocation process that has occurred so far. Admittedly, it does not amount to much and the coronavirus has decreased the activity even further. Under the original state-level delegate selection plans, nine states would have selected statewide delegates by the end of April. Those nine states would have made up just under 13 percent of the total statewide delegates. But again, the coronavirus pandemic has intervened, disrupting the plans state parties laid out and had approved by the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee. Of those nine states, five state parties in Alabama, Georgia, Illinois, Oklahoma and Tennessee shifted their statewide delegate selection to later dates in May and June.
That leaves just four states that have actually conducted delegate selection through the end of April.1 And those four states -- Colorado (April 18 virtual state convention), New Hampshire (April 25 virtual state convention), North Dakota (March 21 virtual state convention) and Utah (April 25 virtual state convention) -- comprise just more than 3 percent of the total number of statewide delegates allocated and selected.
That is not much of a sample and it certainly is not all that representative of how the overall reallocation process will work in other states. North Dakota, for example, held its party-run primary after the race had winnowed to just Biden and Sanders, and then selected statewide delegates before Sanders suspended his campaign on April 8. That meant that Sanders was allocated delegates and had those slots filled with Sanders-aligned supporters before the Vermont senator was out of the race. Those delegates cannot be reallocated.
Moreover, in New Hampshire where statewide delegates were selected this past weekend, there were no candidates still in the race who got more than 15 percent in the February 11 primary and thus no one to whom to reallocate any delegates. Those eight delegates were split among the candidates who originally cleared the 15 percent threshold but who are no longer in the race (Buttigieg, Klobuchar and Sanders). In other words, there was no explicit reallocation of delegates among Granite state Democrats either. It was impossible.
That leaves just Colorado and Utah where only 33 statewide delegates (roughly 2 percent of the total) were at stake. Both also saw multiple candidates clear 15 percent on Super Tuesday. Bloomberg and Warren joined Biden and Sanders over 15 percent in both contests. Colorado Democrats throughout the primary season winnowing process have provided a real-time reallocation tally of its statewide delegates. The party shows Biden as the sole qualifier for statewide delegates, but has yet to release a list of statewide delegates selected ("coming soon" according to this site).
Similarly, in Utah, Democrats there have yet to release a list of statewide delegates selected on April 25. Biden delegate candidates dominated the list of candidates, but it is unclear what the results were in the Beehive state and what the reallocation and selection there looks like.
The take home message here is that there has not been a lot of actual statewide delegate reallocation and/or selection yet. This deal between the Biden and Sanders campaigns, then, comes at a good time. Statewide delegate slots will be reallocated to Biden, but will be filled Sanders delegate candidates where the Vermont senator receives more than 15 percent statewide. And selection has yet to take place for nearly 97 percent of statewide delegates.
That process has yet to really get off the ground yet.
--
1 This excludes American Samoa and the Northern Mariana Islands which selected territory-wide delegates in March in conjunction with their caucuses. Between them, both territories account for just 12 total at-large delegates.
The agreement made between the two campaigns would continue to follow the letter of the rule. Delegates will still be allocated -- or reallocated as the case may be -- to Biden after a primary's or caucus's results come in. However, at the time of selection statewide delegate slots in a proportion corresponding to any qualified share of the vote Sanders received (presumably over 15 percent) would be filled by Sanders-aligned delegate candidates. That has the effect of keeping the overarching reallocation rule intact for this and future cycles, but places the onus on state parties to select delegates in accordance with the statewide results in their states' contests.
--
FHQ will have more on this in a later post, but for now wanted to more closely examine the reallocation process that has occurred so far. Admittedly, it does not amount to much and the coronavirus has decreased the activity even further. Under the original state-level delegate selection plans, nine states would have selected statewide delegates by the end of April. Those nine states would have made up just under 13 percent of the total statewide delegates. But again, the coronavirus pandemic has intervened, disrupting the plans state parties laid out and had approved by the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee. Of those nine states, five state parties in Alabama, Georgia, Illinois, Oklahoma and Tennessee shifted their statewide delegate selection to later dates in May and June.
That leaves just four states that have actually conducted delegate selection through the end of April.1 And those four states -- Colorado (April 18 virtual state convention), New Hampshire (April 25 virtual state convention), North Dakota (March 21 virtual state convention) and Utah (April 25 virtual state convention) -- comprise just more than 3 percent of the total number of statewide delegates allocated and selected.
That is not much of a sample and it certainly is not all that representative of how the overall reallocation process will work in other states. North Dakota, for example, held its party-run primary after the race had winnowed to just Biden and Sanders, and then selected statewide delegates before Sanders suspended his campaign on April 8. That meant that Sanders was allocated delegates and had those slots filled with Sanders-aligned supporters before the Vermont senator was out of the race. Those delegates cannot be reallocated.
Moreover, in New Hampshire where statewide delegates were selected this past weekend, there were no candidates still in the race who got more than 15 percent in the February 11 primary and thus no one to whom to reallocate any delegates. Those eight delegates were split among the candidates who originally cleared the 15 percent threshold but who are no longer in the race (Buttigieg, Klobuchar and Sanders). In other words, there was no explicit reallocation of delegates among Granite state Democrats either. It was impossible.
That leaves just Colorado and Utah where only 33 statewide delegates (roughly 2 percent of the total) were at stake. Both also saw multiple candidates clear 15 percent on Super Tuesday. Bloomberg and Warren joined Biden and Sanders over 15 percent in both contests. Colorado Democrats throughout the primary season winnowing process have provided a real-time reallocation tally of its statewide delegates. The party shows Biden as the sole qualifier for statewide delegates, but has yet to release a list of statewide delegates selected ("coming soon" according to this site).
Similarly, in Utah, Democrats there have yet to release a list of statewide delegates selected on April 25. Biden delegate candidates dominated the list of candidates, but it is unclear what the results were in the Beehive state and what the reallocation and selection there looks like.
The take home message here is that there has not been a lot of actual statewide delegate reallocation and/or selection yet. This deal between the Biden and Sanders campaigns, then, comes at a good time. Statewide delegate slots will be reallocated to Biden, but will be filled Sanders delegate candidates where the Vermont senator receives more than 15 percent statewide. And selection has yet to take place for nearly 97 percent of statewide delegates.
That process has yet to really get off the ground yet.
--
1 This excludes American Samoa and the Northern Mariana Islands which selected territory-wide delegates in March in conjunction with their caucuses. Between them, both territories account for just 12 total at-large delegates.
Tuesday, April 28, 2020
2020 Democratic Delegate Allocation: OHIO
OHIO
Election type: primary
Date: April 28
[March 17 originally]
Number of delegates: 153 [29 at-large, 18 PLEOs, 89 congressional district, 17 automatic/superdelegates]
Allocation method: proportional statewide and at the congressional district level
Threshold to qualify for delegates: 15%
2016: proportional primary
Delegate selection plan
--
Changes since 2016
If one followed the 2016 series on the Republican process here at FHQ, then you may end up somewhat disappointed. The two national parties manage the presidential nomination process differently. The Republican National Committee is much less hands-on in regulating state and state party activity in the delegate selection process than the Democratic National Committee is. That leads to a lot of variation from state to state and from cycle to cycle on the Republican side. Meanwhile, the DNC is much more top down in its approach. Thresholds stay the same. It is a 15 percent barrier that candidates must cross in order to qualify for delegates. That is standard across all states. The allocation of delegates is roughly proportional. Again, that is applied to every state.
That does not mean there are no changes. The calendar has changed as have other facets of the process such as whether a state has a primary or a caucus.
The Ohio primary was moved back a week to third Tuesday in March by Republicans in the state legislature to preserve the winner-take-all allocation method the party used in 2016. That affected the Democratic contest as well. Once the coronavirus pandemic hit, however, Ohio became one of the first states to delay its primary. When the primary was postponed on primary day -- March 17 -- the governor and secretary of state both signaled a June 2 date. However, that was never a decision definitively handed down in any executive action. Instead, when the legislature got involved later in March 2020, the primary was not only set for April 28, but was made a vote-by-mail election. Those already in possession of an absentee ballot from the original March 17 primary could still submit those ballots. Every eligible voter was mailed a postcard in mid-April informing them of how they could participate in the primary.
[For more of the particulars on how the primary will work, see this earlier post about the bill the changed the election to vote-by-mail.]
Overall, the Democratic delegation changed by six delegates from 2016 to 2020. The number of pledged delegates decreased by seven (four district delegates, two at-large delegates and one PLEO delegate), but gained one superdelegate. On the whole, though, there were changes for Ohio Democrats since 2016 but most of them occurred in response to the coronavirus in 2020.
Thresholds
The standard 15 percent qualifying threshold applies both statewide and on the congressional district level.
Delegate allocation (at-large and PLEO delegates)
To win any at-large or PLEO (pledged Party Leader and Elected Officials) delegates a candidate must win 15 percent of the statewide vote. Only the votes of those candidates above the threshold will count for the purposes of the separate allocation of these two pools of delegates.
See New Hampshire synopsis for an example of how the delegate allocation math works for all categories of delegates.
Delegate allocation (congressional district delegates)
Ohio's 89 congressional district delegates are split across 16 congressional districts and have a variation of six delegates across districts from the measure of Democratic strength Ohio Democrats are using based on the results of the 2016 presidential election and 2018 gubernatorial election in the state. That method apportions delegates as follows...
CD1 - 6 delegates
CD2 - 5 delegates*
CD3 - 7 delegates*
CD4 - 4 delegates
CD5 - 5 delegates*
CD6 - 3 delegates*
CD7 - 4 delegates
CD8 - 4 delegates
CD9 - 6 delegates
CD10 - 6 delegates
CD11 - 9 delegates*
CD12 - 6 delegates
CD13 - 6 delegates
CD14 - 6 delegates
CD15 - 6 delegates
CD16 - 6 delegates
*Bear in mind that districts with odd numbers of national convention delegates are potentially important to winners (and those above the qualifying threshold) within those districts. Rounding up for an extra delegate initially requires less in those districts than in districts with even numbers of delegates.
Delegate allocation (automatic delegates/superdelegates)
Superdelegates are free to align with a candidate of their choice at a time of their choosing. While their support may be a signal to voters in their state (if an endorsement is made before voting in that state), superdelegates will only vote on the first ballot at the national convention if half of the total number of delegates -- pledged plus superdelegates -- have been pledged to one candidate. Otherwise, superdelegates are locked out of the voting unless 1) the convention adopts rules that allow them to vote or 2) the voting process extends to a second ballot. But then all delegates, not just superdelegates will be free to vote for any candidate.
[NOTE: All Democratic delegates are pledged and not bound to their candidates. They are to vote in good conscience for the candidate to whom they have been pledged, but technically do not have to. But they tend to because the candidates and their campaigns are involved in vetting and selecting their delegates through the various selection processes on the state level. Well, the good campaigns are anyway.]
Selection
All 89 of the district delegates were slated for each candidate on January 7 and how many of each candidate's delegate candidates are selected from those slates is based on the results of the April 28 primary. Filing for district delegate candidates closed on December 31, 2019. While a campaign's inability to file a full slate by then is often a signal of lack of organization, those same campaigns are not shut out of delegate positions if they are allocated them in the primary but do not have a full slate to fill them. In that case, the campaign would have an opportunity to fill those empty allocated slots at post-primary caucuses that were scheduled to be held on April 16 under the original delegate selection plan. However, the new plan, updated on April 8, 2020 (the day that Sanders suspended his campaign), indicates that the post-primary meetings are moot. The PLEO and then at-large delegates will be selected on June 6 by the State Executive Committee based on the statewide results in the primary. [Under the initial, pre-coronavirus plan, those statewide delegates were to have been selected on May 9.]
Importantly, if a candidate drops out of the race before the selection of statewide delegates, then any statewide delegates allocated to that candidate will be reallocated to the remaining candidates. If Candidate X is in the race in early June when the Ohio statewide delegate selection takes place but Candidate Y is not, then any statewide delegates allocated to Candidate Y in the April primary would be reallocated to Candidate X. [This same feature is not something that applies to district delegates.] This reallocation only applies if a candidate has fully dropped out. This is less likely to be a factor with just Biden left as the only viable candidate in the race, but Sanders could still gain statewide delegates by finishing with more than 15 percent statewide.
Election type: primary
Date: April 28
[March 17 originally]
Number of delegates: 153 [29 at-large, 18 PLEOs, 89 congressional district, 17 automatic/superdelegates]
Allocation method: proportional statewide and at the congressional district level
Threshold to qualify for delegates: 15%
2016: proportional primary
Delegate selection plan
--
Changes since 2016
If one followed the 2016 series on the Republican process here at FHQ, then you may end up somewhat disappointed. The two national parties manage the presidential nomination process differently. The Republican National Committee is much less hands-on in regulating state and state party activity in the delegate selection process than the Democratic National Committee is. That leads to a lot of variation from state to state and from cycle to cycle on the Republican side. Meanwhile, the DNC is much more top down in its approach. Thresholds stay the same. It is a 15 percent barrier that candidates must cross in order to qualify for delegates. That is standard across all states. The allocation of delegates is roughly proportional. Again, that is applied to every state.
That does not mean there are no changes. The calendar has changed as have other facets of the process such as whether a state has a primary or a caucus.
The Ohio primary was moved back a week to third Tuesday in March by Republicans in the state legislature to preserve the winner-take-all allocation method the party used in 2016. That affected the Democratic contest as well. Once the coronavirus pandemic hit, however, Ohio became one of the first states to delay its primary. When the primary was postponed on primary day -- March 17 -- the governor and secretary of state both signaled a June 2 date. However, that was never a decision definitively handed down in any executive action. Instead, when the legislature got involved later in March 2020, the primary was not only set for April 28, but was made a vote-by-mail election. Those already in possession of an absentee ballot from the original March 17 primary could still submit those ballots. Every eligible voter was mailed a postcard in mid-April informing them of how they could participate in the primary.
[For more of the particulars on how the primary will work, see this earlier post about the bill the changed the election to vote-by-mail.]
Overall, the Democratic delegation changed by six delegates from 2016 to 2020. The number of pledged delegates decreased by seven (four district delegates, two at-large delegates and one PLEO delegate), but gained one superdelegate. On the whole, though, there were changes for Ohio Democrats since 2016 but most of them occurred in response to the coronavirus in 2020.
Thresholds
The standard 15 percent qualifying threshold applies both statewide and on the congressional district level.
Delegate allocation (at-large and PLEO delegates)
To win any at-large or PLEO (pledged Party Leader and Elected Officials) delegates a candidate must win 15 percent of the statewide vote. Only the votes of those candidates above the threshold will count for the purposes of the separate allocation of these two pools of delegates.
See New Hampshire synopsis for an example of how the delegate allocation math works for all categories of delegates.
Delegate allocation (congressional district delegates)
Ohio's 89 congressional district delegates are split across 16 congressional districts and have a variation of six delegates across districts from the measure of Democratic strength Ohio Democrats are using based on the results of the 2016 presidential election and 2018 gubernatorial election in the state. That method apportions delegates as follows...
CD1 - 6 delegates
CD2 - 5 delegates*
CD3 - 7 delegates*
CD4 - 4 delegates
CD5 - 5 delegates*
CD6 - 3 delegates*
CD7 - 4 delegates
CD8 - 4 delegates
CD9 - 6 delegates
CD10 - 6 delegates
CD11 - 9 delegates*
CD12 - 6 delegates
CD13 - 6 delegates
CD14 - 6 delegates
CD15 - 6 delegates
CD16 - 6 delegates
*Bear in mind that districts with odd numbers of national convention delegates are potentially important to winners (and those above the qualifying threshold) within those districts. Rounding up for an extra delegate initially requires less in those districts than in districts with even numbers of delegates.
Delegate allocation (automatic delegates/superdelegates)
Superdelegates are free to align with a candidate of their choice at a time of their choosing. While their support may be a signal to voters in their state (if an endorsement is made before voting in that state), superdelegates will only vote on the first ballot at the national convention if half of the total number of delegates -- pledged plus superdelegates -- have been pledged to one candidate. Otherwise, superdelegates are locked out of the voting unless 1) the convention adopts rules that allow them to vote or 2) the voting process extends to a second ballot. But then all delegates, not just superdelegates will be free to vote for any candidate.
[NOTE: All Democratic delegates are pledged and not bound to their candidates. They are to vote in good conscience for the candidate to whom they have been pledged, but technically do not have to. But they tend to because the candidates and their campaigns are involved in vetting and selecting their delegates through the various selection processes on the state level. Well, the good campaigns are anyway.]
Selection
All 89 of the district delegates were slated for each candidate on January 7 and how many of each candidate's delegate candidates are selected from those slates is based on the results of the April 28 primary. Filing for district delegate candidates closed on December 31, 2019. While a campaign's inability to file a full slate by then is often a signal of lack of organization, those same campaigns are not shut out of delegate positions if they are allocated them in the primary but do not have a full slate to fill them. In that case, the campaign would have an opportunity to fill those empty allocated slots at post-primary caucuses that were scheduled to be held on April 16 under the original delegate selection plan. However, the new plan, updated on April 8, 2020 (the day that Sanders suspended his campaign), indicates that the post-primary meetings are moot. The PLEO and then at-large delegates will be selected on June 6 by the State Executive Committee based on the statewide results in the primary. [Under the initial, pre-coronavirus plan, those statewide delegates were to have been selected on May 9.]
Importantly, if a candidate drops out of the race before the selection of statewide delegates, then any statewide delegates allocated to that candidate will be reallocated to the remaining candidates. If Candidate X is in the race in early June when the Ohio statewide delegate selection takes place but Candidate Y is not, then any statewide delegates allocated to Candidate Y in the April primary would be reallocated to Candidate X. [This same feature is not something that applies to district delegates.] This reallocation only applies if a candidate has fully dropped out. This is less likely to be a factor with just Biden left as the only viable candidate in the race, but Sanders could still gain statewide delegates by finishing with more than 15 percent statewide.
Friday, April 17, 2020
Second Move's the Charm: Connecticut Shifts Its Presidential Primary to August
Connecticut on Tuesday became the third state in a little more than a week to move back its presidential primary for a second time in response to the coronavirus pandemic. Governor Ned Lamont (D) made the change via executive order and in concert with Secretary of State Denise Merrill (D).
Now, the Connecticut presidential primary will coincide with the primaries for state and local offices previously scheduled for August 11. While that will save the state the budgetary hit of a separate presidential primary election, an August primary comes with some problems. First, it obviously falls later than the national party rules allow, much later than any other state that has so far shifted its contest. But secondly, the new date of the presidential primary falls just days before the Democratic National Convention -- recently delayed as well -- is set to commence on August 17. That leaves little time for the results of the primary to be certified in order to allocated delegates. And that would be true even if Connecticut Democrats make plans to slate delegate candidates for presidential candidates ahead of the primary.
One option that was raised in the Hartford Courant in the paper's write up of the primary move is that if all candidates but one request that their names be removed from the ballot, then the contest could be cancelled. That would alleviate much of the pressure on the state and state party to complete the delegate selection process in the days before the national convention starts.
For now, however, the Connecticut presidential primary is part of a consolidated primary on August 11.
Governor Lamont's executive order will be archived here.
The Connecticut primary change has been added to the 2020 FHQ presidential primary calendar.
--
Related posts:
June 2 Presidential Primary Date Grows with Addition of Connecticut
Now, the Connecticut presidential primary will coincide with the primaries for state and local offices previously scheduled for August 11. While that will save the state the budgetary hit of a separate presidential primary election, an August primary comes with some problems. First, it obviously falls later than the national party rules allow, much later than any other state that has so far shifted its contest. But secondly, the new date of the presidential primary falls just days before the Democratic National Convention -- recently delayed as well -- is set to commence on August 17. That leaves little time for the results of the primary to be certified in order to allocated delegates. And that would be true even if Connecticut Democrats make plans to slate delegate candidates for presidential candidates ahead of the primary.
One option that was raised in the Hartford Courant in the paper's write up of the primary move is that if all candidates but one request that their names be removed from the ballot, then the contest could be cancelled. That would alleviate much of the pressure on the state and state party to complete the delegate selection process in the days before the national convention starts.
For now, however, the Connecticut presidential primary is part of a consolidated primary on August 11.
Governor Lamont's executive order will be archived here.
The Connecticut primary change has been added to the 2020 FHQ presidential primary calendar.
--
Related posts:
June 2 Presidential Primary Date Grows with Addition of Connecticut
Tuesday, April 14, 2020
On the Move Again: Louisiana Shifts Presidential Primary to July 11
Once, it seems, was not enough in the Pelican state.
At the request of Secretary of State Kyle Ardoin (R), Louisiana Governor John Bel Edwards (D) on Tuesday, April 14, again issued a proclamation to move the presidential primary in the state back another three weeks. This follows the nearly three month delay the pair agreed to in mid-March as the coronavirus began to spread.
Unlike the majority of other states that have moved primaries and caucuses in the wake of the outbreak, Louisiana appears to be attempting to get enough out of the shadow of the pandemic to hold a primary election as close to usual as possible. The proclamation pushes back the early voting window to June 26-July 4, the deadline to request absentee ballots for most voters to July 7 and the deadline for those ballots to be submitted to July 10 (at 4:30pm). In-person voting remains in a state that requires an excuse (from a list of several reasons) in order to vote absentee. In other words, there is no clear effort to send all Louisiana voters an absentee application much less a primary ballot as has been the case in most of other states that have shifted to later dates during primary season.
That may or may not change in the future as the public health situation develops.
What can be said more definitively is that both the first and second new dates violate the national parties' rules on the timing of delegate selection events. The first fell late and the second even later and even closer to the (admittedly now-delayed Democratic) national conventions. Regardless of the later timing of the Democratic National Convention, Louisiana Democrats will still have to take this change before the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee for the panel's approval. Whether the later convention will help accommodate the later primary in the Pelican state will largely depend on how the state Democratic Party tweaks its delegate selection plan to meet the new later date.
The governor's proclamation is archived here.
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UPDATE (4/28/20): The Louisiana state legislature passed legislation to provide for a series of coronavirus-related excuses in order to request an absentee ballot. The bill did not, however, remove the need for an excuse. Prospective absentee voters applying for ballot must choose from a list of excuses that includes having a preexisting condition that may put the voter at increased risk of contracting covid-19, being in quarantine, being advised by a health care provider to self-quarantine, experiencing symptoms of the coronavirus, or caring for someone who has the disease. How rigorous the county elections officials will be in processing and accepting those excuses remains to be seen. But the move does provide marginally more relief to voters seeking a safer alternative to vote (even if Republicans in the state legislature scuttled the governor and secretary of state's plans to be more accommodating with vote-by-mail options).
The covid-related absentee application is archived here.
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The Louisiana primary date has been changed on the 2020 FHQ presidential primary calendar.
--
Related post:
Louisiana Shifts Presidential Primary Back to June 20 Amid Rising Coronavirus Concerns
At the request of Secretary of State Kyle Ardoin (R), Louisiana Governor John Bel Edwards (D) on Tuesday, April 14, again issued a proclamation to move the presidential primary in the state back another three weeks. This follows the nearly three month delay the pair agreed to in mid-March as the coronavirus began to spread.
Unlike the majority of other states that have moved primaries and caucuses in the wake of the outbreak, Louisiana appears to be attempting to get enough out of the shadow of the pandemic to hold a primary election as close to usual as possible. The proclamation pushes back the early voting window to June 26-July 4, the deadline to request absentee ballots for most voters to July 7 and the deadline for those ballots to be submitted to July 10 (at 4:30pm). In-person voting remains in a state that requires an excuse (from a list of several reasons) in order to vote absentee. In other words, there is no clear effort to send all Louisiana voters an absentee application much less a primary ballot as has been the case in most of other states that have shifted to later dates during primary season.
That may or may not change in the future as the public health situation develops.
What can be said more definitively is that both the first and second new dates violate the national parties' rules on the timing of delegate selection events. The first fell late and the second even later and even closer to the (admittedly now-delayed Democratic) national conventions. Regardless of the later timing of the Democratic National Convention, Louisiana Democrats will still have to take this change before the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee for the panel's approval. Whether the later convention will help accommodate the later primary in the Pelican state will largely depend on how the state Democratic Party tweaks its delegate selection plan to meet the new later date.
The governor's proclamation is archived here.
--
UPDATE (4/28/20): The Louisiana state legislature passed legislation to provide for a series of coronavirus-related excuses in order to request an absentee ballot. The bill did not, however, remove the need for an excuse. Prospective absentee voters applying for ballot must choose from a list of excuses that includes having a preexisting condition that may put the voter at increased risk of contracting covid-19, being in quarantine, being advised by a health care provider to self-quarantine, experiencing symptoms of the coronavirus, or caring for someone who has the disease. How rigorous the county elections officials will be in processing and accepting those excuses remains to be seen. But the move does provide marginally more relief to voters seeking a safer alternative to vote (even if Republicans in the state legislature scuttled the governor and secretary of state's plans to be more accommodating with vote-by-mail options).
The covid-related absentee application is archived here.
--
The Louisiana primary date has been changed on the 2020 FHQ presidential primary calendar.
--
Related post:
Louisiana Shifts Presidential Primary Back to June 20 Amid Rising Coronavirus Concerns
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