Wednesday, October 19, 2016

The Electoral College Map (10/19/16)



New State Polls (10/19/16)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Clinton
Trump
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Arizona
10/10-10/15
+/-3.7%
713 likely voters
43
38
8
+5
+1.19
Kansas
10/11-10/15
+/-4.1%
581 likely voters
36
47
7
+11
+11.72
Missouri
10/17-10/19
+/-3.9%
600 likely voters
39
47
7
+8
+6.991
New Hampshire
10/11-10/17
+/-3.5%
770 likely voters
49
34
3
+15
--
New Hampshire
10/17-10/19
+/-3.2%
900 likely voters
44
36
5
+8
+6.13
New York
10/13-10/17
+/- 4.6%
611 likely voters
54
30
6
+24
+20.01
North Carolina
10/14-10/17
+/-3.7%
723 registered voters
46
44
4
+2
--
North Carolina
10/14-10/17
+/-4.0%
600 likely voters
44
42
6
+2
+1.59
Oregon
10/4-10/14
+/- 3.97%
608 likely voters
46
36
4
+10
+9.66
Pennsylvania
10/17-10/19
+/-3.4%
800 likely voters
45
41
6
+4
+5.51
Utah
10/17-10/19
+/-3.6%
700 likely voters
24
27
12
+3
+10.211
Vermont
9/29-10/14
+/- 3.9%
650 likely voters
45
17
14
+28
+24.00
Virginia
10/12-10/15
+/-4.1%
500 likely voters
47
38
9
+9
+6.61
Wisconsin
10/15-10/18
+/-4.9%
403 likely voters
47
40
5
+7
--
Wisconsin
10/18-10/19
+/-3.5
804 likely voters
50
38
12
+12
+6.66
1Excluding the two head-to-head online panel surveys in Utah lowers Trump's average advantage there to 7.44 points. Those polls are outliers in view of the majority of surveys in the Beehive state during 2016 and serve as an anchor on the data. The change would shift Utah from the Strong Trump category to the Lean Trump category. McMullin leads in the Emerson poll with 31% support.


--
Changes (10/19/16)
Another day with confirming data rather anything that shook up the picture in any way. Most of the action was on the Electoral College Spectrum. Wisconsin jumped Virginia and Michigan. Those three and Minnesota are tightly bunched within 0.10 points of each other. Importantly, Iowa and Arizona swap positions on the Spectrum, bringing the Grand Canyon state up against the partisan line as the closest state on Trump's side. Utah and Mississippi switch as well (although there are plenty of caveats with McMullin rising in the Beehive state and some of the online head-to-head surveys included).

New Hampshire after a second survey showing the race in the double digit range for Clinton slides off the Watch List. Meanwhile, the List adds Utah along the Strong/Lean Trump line.

The map remained unchanged as did the distribution of electoral college votes.




The Electoral College Spectrum1
MD-102
(13)
WA-12
(162)
PA-20
(263)
TX-38
(154)
SD-3
(53)
HI-4
(17)
NJ-14
(176)
CO-94
(272 | 275)
AK-3
(116)
AR-6
(50)
VT-3
(20)
OR-7
(183)
FL-29
(301 | 266)
SC-9
(113)
ND-3
(44)
CA-55
(75)
NM-5
(188)
NC-15
(316 | 237)
IN-11
(104)
KY-8
(41)
MA-11
(86)
ME-23
(190)
NV-6
(322 | 222)
UT-6
(93)
NE-53
(33)
NY-29+13
(116)
MN-10
(200)
OH-18
(340 | 216)
MS-6
(87)
AL-9
(28)
IL-20
(136)
WI-10
(210)
AZ-11
(198)
KS-6
(81)
OK-7
(19)
DE-3
(139)
MI-16
(226)
IA-6
(187)
LA-8
(75)
ID-4
(12)
CT-7
(146)
VA-13
(239)
GA-16+13
(181)
MT-3
(67)
WV-5
(8)
RI-4
(150)
NH-4
(243)
MO-10
(164)
TN-11
(64)
WY-3
(3)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Clinton's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 275 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics.
To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College.

3 Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral college votes to candidates in a more proportional manner. The statewide winner receives the two electoral votes apportioned to the state based on the two US Senate seats each state has. Additionally, the winner within a congressional district is awarded one electoral vote. Given current polling, all five Nebraska electoral votes would be allocated to Trump. In Maine, a split seems more likely. Trump leads in Maine's second congressional district while Clinton is ahead statewide and in the first district. She would receive three of the four Maine electoral votes and Trump the remaining electoral vote. Those congressional district votes are added approximately where they would fall in the Spectrum above.

4 Colorado is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Currently, Colorado is in the Toss Up Clinton category.



NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.


The Watch List1
State
Switch
Colorado
from Toss Up Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Indiana
from Lean Trump
to Strong Trump
Maine CD2
from Toss Up Trump
to Lean Trump
Mississippi
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Ohio
from Toss Up Clinton
to Toss Up Trump
Oregon
from Lean Clinton
to Strong Clinton
Pennsylvania
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
Utah
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/18/16)

The Electoral College Map (10/17/16)

The Electoral College Map (10/16/16)

Follow FHQ on TwitterGoogle+ and Facebook or subscribe by Email.

Tuesday, October 18, 2016

The Electoral College Map (10/18/16)



New State Polls (10/18/16)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Clinton
Trump
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Arizona
10/8-10/16
--
1028 likely voters
41
44
2
+3
+1.51
California
10/13-10/15
+/- 3.7%
725 likely voters
56
30
7
+26
+22.18
Colorado
10/12-10/13
+/- 4.38%
500 likely voters
40
35
6
+5
--
Colorado
10/8-10/16
--
956 likely voters
44
37
3
+7
+4.29
Florida
10/8-10/16
--
1702 likely voters
43
45
3
+2
+2.21
Georgia
10/8-10/16
--
886 likely voters
45
41
3
+4
+3.05
Indiana
10/7-10/10
--
1123 likely voters
37
43
7
+6
+9.601
Iowa
10/8-10/16
--
1135 likely voters
40
45
4
+5
+1.30
Massachusetts
10/13-10/15
+/- 4.4%
502 likely voters
54
28
6
+26
+22.09
Michigan
10/8-10/16
--
1331 likely voters
45
37
3
+8
+6.62
Nevada
10/8-10/16
--
884 likely voters
40
44
2
+4
--
Nevada
10/14-10/17
+/-4.8%
413 likely voters
47
40
3
+7
+1.07
New Hampshire
10/8-10/16
--
569 likely voters
47
36
2
+11
+5.69
New Jersey
10/12-10/16
+/-4.3%
579 likely voters
49
35
5
+14
+11.88
New Mexico
10/8-10/16
--
889 likely voters
41
33
2
+8
+7.82
North Carolina
10/8-10/16
--
1191 likely voters
46
40
3
+6
+1.56
Ohio
10/8-10/16
--
1307 likely voters
41
44
2
+3
+0.71
Oregon
10/6-10/13
+/- 4.0%
600 likely voters
43
36
7
+7
+9.62
Pennsylvania
10/7-10/10
--
1457 likely voters
47
38
7
+9
--
Pennsylvania
10/8-10/16
--
1449 likely voters
46
40
3
+6
+5.55
Texas
10/7-10/15
+/- 3.0%
1000 likely voters
38
41
13
+3
--
Texas
10/8-10/16
--
1332 likely voters
42
44
3
+2
+7.11
Virginia
10/8-10/16
--
1644 likely voters
49
38
2
+11
+6.51
Wisconsin
10/8-10/16
--
1076 likely voters
43
38
3
+5
--
Wisconsin
10/13-10/16
+/-3.8%
664 likely voters
47
39
7
+8
+6.35
1The Picayune poll in Indiana pushes the Hoosier state from the Strong Trump to Lean Trump category.


--
Changes (10/18/16)
Changes (October 18)
StateBeforeAfter
IndianaStrong TrumpLean Trump
Despite all the new polling data, little changed here at FHQ. Indiana went from barely a Strong Trump state to barely a Lean Trump state. It remains on the line between the two categories based on the new data from the Picayune survey. The Hoosier state maintained its same position on the Electoral College Spectrum, but changed shades both there and on the map. That obviously changes Indiana's distinction on the Watch List. Other than that, the only other changes were Texas hopping South Carolina and Alaska in the Lean Trump area of the Spectrum toward the Toss Up category and Virginia and Wisconsin swapping spots on the Spectrum in Lean Clinton territory.




The Electoral College Spectrum1
MD-102
(13)
WA-12
(162)
PA-20
(263)
TX-38
(154)
SD-3
(53)
HI-4
(17)
NJ-14
(176)
CO-94
(272 | 275)
AK-3
(116)
AR-6
(50)
VT-3
(20)
OR-7
(183)
FL-29
(301 | 266)
SC-9
(113)
ND-3
(44)
CA-55
(75)
NM-5
(188)
NC-15
(316 | 237)
IN-11
(104)
KY-8
(41)
MA-11
(86)
ME-23
(190)
NV-6
(322 | 222)
MS-6
(93)
NE-53
(33)
NY-29+13
(116)
MN-10
(200)
OH-18
(340 | 216)
UT-6
(87)
AL-9
(28)
IL-20
(136)
MI-16
(216)
IA-6
(198)
KS-6
(81)
OK-7
(19)
DE-3
(139)
VA-13
(229)
AZ-11
(192)
LA-8
(75)
ID-4
(12)
CT-7
(146)
WI-10
(239)
GA-16+13
(181)
MT-3
(67)
WV-5
(8)
RI-4
(150)
NH-4
(243)
MO-10
(164)
TN-11
(64)
WY-3
(3)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Clinton's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 275 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics.
To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College.

3 Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral college votes to candidates in a more proportional manner. The statewide winner receives the two electoral votes apportioned to the state based on the two US Senate seats each state has. Additionally, the winner within a congressional district is awarded one electoral vote. Given current polling, all five Nebraska electoral votes would be allocated to Trump. In Maine, a split seems more likely. Trump leads in Maine's second congressional district while Clinton is ahead statewide and in the first district. She would receive three of the four Maine electoral votes and Trump the remaining electoral vote. Those congressional district votes are added approximately where they would fall in the Spectrum above.

4 Colorado is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Currently, Colorado is in the Toss Up Clinton category.



NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.


The Watch List1
State
Switch
Colorado
from Toss Up Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Indiana
from Lean Trump
to Strong Trump
Maine CD2
from Toss Up Trump
to Lean Trump
Mississippi
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
New Hampshire
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
Ohio
from Toss Up Clinton
to Toss Up Trump
Oregon
from Lean Clinton
to Strong Clinton
Pennsylvania
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/17/16)

The Electoral College Map (10/16/16)

The Electoral College Map (10/15/16)

Follow FHQ on TwitterGoogle+ and Facebook or subscribe by Email.