Update: 2016 Presidential Primary Calendar (8/26/14)

With Arizona moving its presidential primary back and back into compliance with the national party rules, there is one less threat to the ideal primary calendars under which the DNC and RNC would like to operate.

FHQ spent a great deal of time in 2011 talking about a couple of factors. One was the fact that Arizona, Florida and Michigan (among others) should never have been surprises to anyone. After 2008 but before 2012 none of those states made legislative moves that changed anything about the threats they represented to the 2012 presidential primary calendar. The other was that, after 2008, there were around 20 states that had to change state laws (or party bylaws) to comply with the parties' desire for a later start (read: February) to primary season. Most of those states complied. Some even shifted to dates later than the earliest date the national parties allowed non-carve-out states to hold their delegate selection events (March 6 in 2012).

Arizona, Florida, Michigan and a handful of other states did not. That meant that there was work to do from the national parties' perspective ahead of the 2016 cycle. Florida moved back from the brink in 2013 and Arizona and Missouri have already done so in 2014, inching the calendar closer to the national parties' ideal point.

However, there is still some more inching to do as we begin the slow march toward 2015, when many of these decisions will be made (or not made) at the state legislative level. Michigan is still a problem and North Carolina became one in 2013. And who knows which state may represent the next Utah and add to the threats? It may be Utah. Now that the national parties have set their rules the baton passes to the states. It is their point in the sequential process to decided to move back and comply, stand pat in compliance or defiance or move up and defy the those national party delegate selection rules.

Things are far from clear with a lot left to be decided in 2015, but for now, at this brief moment in time, the national parties are in good shape and seemingly headed in the direction of a later start to primary season.

Of course there is a long way to go before the calendar is set for 2016. And the next move is the states, no the national parties.

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Latest update: 8/26/14 (Arizona moved on the calendar)

The 2016 presidential primary calendar can also always be found at its permanent home here.

Reading the Map:

As was the case with the maps from past cycles, the earlier a contest is scheduled in 2012, the darker the color in which the state is shaded. Michigan, for instance, is a much deeper shade of blue in February than California is in June. There are, however, some differences between the earlier maps and the one that appears above.

1. Several caucus states have yet to select a date for the first step of their delegate selection processes in 2016. Until a decision is made by state parties in those states, they will appear in gray on the map.
2. The states where legislation to move the presidential primary is active are two-toned with wide, diagonal stripes. One color indicates the timing of the primary according to the current law whereas the second color is meant to highlight the month to which the primary could be moved. For example, a bill currently being considered in Massachusetts would move the presidential primary from its current position in March to a new spot on the calendar in June. 
3. Other states -- the carve-out states and states with state laws providing guidance for setting a primary or caucuses date but no specific date or multiple specified dates -- are also two-toned with narrow, horizontal stripes. In this case, one color (gray) represents the uncertainty of the primary or caucuses date now while the other color (or colors) highlight the options available to states or the most likely date for a contest in that state given the information we currently have. So, in Iowa, for instance, we know that the state parties in the Hawkeye state will want to protect the first in the nation status they have enjoyed in the past. To maintain that position alone, Iowa could now conduct its precinct caucuses as late as January 18, 2016. In a state like Utah, the primary itself is dependent on the state legislature allocating funds for that purpose. Should legislators in the Beehive state follow through on that action for 2016, the primary would be in early February. That explains the color in both instances. 
4. States that are bisected vertically are states where the state parties have different dates for their caucuses and/or primaries. The left hand section is shaded to reflect the state Democratic Party's scheduling while the right is for the state Republican Party's decision on the timing of its delegate selection event (see Nebraska). This holds true for states -- typically caucus states -- with a history of different dates across parties but which also have not yet chosen a contest date.

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Reading the calendar:

1. Note that if you click on the state name in the calendar below, the link will take you to the relevant section of the state's law or party's bylaws covering the date of the primary or caucus.
2. Links to discussions of 2013 or 2014 state-level legislation addressing the dates of future presidential primaries have also been added (see 2013/2014 Legislation in the calendar).
3. Markers have also been added indicating whether legislation has become law or has died at some point in the legislative process. 

2016 Presidential Primary Calendar

January

Monday, January 18:

Iowa caucuses¹ (***tentative given current information***)

Tuesday, January 26: 

New Hampshire (***tentative given current information***)

February

Tuesday, February 2:

Colorado caucuses²

Minnesota caucuses³

Utah⁴
    (2013 Legislation: Primary funding -- Signed into Law)
    (2014 Legislation: Primary before Iowa/New Hampshire -- Died in state Senate)

Saturday, February 6:
Nevada caucuses (***tentative given current information***)

Saturday, February 13:
South Carolina (***tentative given current information***)

Tuesday, February 16: 
North Carolina (***tentative given current information***)

Tuesday, February 23:

Michigan

March

Tuesday, March 1:

Colorado caucuses² 

Florida⁵
    (2013 Legislation: March primary -- Died in Committee; Primary on first unpenalized date --
    Signed into Law)
Massachusetts 
    (2013 legislation: June primary)

Oklahoma

Tennessee

Texas
    (2013 Legislation: Saturday primary, February primary -- all Died in Committee)

Vermont

Virginia

Saturday, March 5:
Louisiana
    (2014 legislation: earlier March primary -- Signed into Law)
    [+14]

Tuesday, March 8:

Alabama

Hawaii Republican caucuses

Mississippi

Ohio

Tuesday, March 15:

Illinois

Missouri 
    (2013 Legislation: March primary: House/Senate, April primary -- all Died in Committee)
    (2014 Legislation: March primary: House/Senate -- Senate committee substitute Signed into  
    Law)
    [-42]

Tuesday, March 22:
Arizona
    (2013 Legislation: Fix primary date to date of Iowa caucuses)
    (2014 Legislation: move the primary to the Tuesday after March 15 -- Signed into Law)
    [-28]

April

Tuesday, April 5:

Maryland

Washington, DC 
    (2013 Legislation: June primary)

Wisconsin⁶

Tuesday, April 26:

Connecticut

Delaware

Pennsylvania

Rhode Island

May

Tuesday, May 3:

Indiana

Tuesday, May 10:

Nebraska

West Virginia

Tuesday, May 17:

Kentucky

Oregon

Tuesday, May 24:

Arkansas

June

Tuesday, June 7:

California

Montana 
    (2013 Legislation: May primary -- Died in Committee)

New Jersey

New Mexico

South Dakota

Tuesday, June 28:
Utah⁴

Primary states with no specified date:

Georgia

Kansas⁷

Maine
    (2013 Legislation: establish primary -- Died in Committee)
Nevada⁸
    (2013 Legislation: January primary -- Died in Committee)
New Hampshire

New York
North Carolina⁹
    (2013 Legislation: Move primary to Tuesday after South Carolina primary if South Carolina  
    is before March 15 -- Signed into Law)

South Carolina

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¹ This date does conflict with the Martin Luther King Day holiday in 2016. As John Deeth points out in the comments section that is an issue that was a source of some discontent among Iowa Democrats when the caucuses and holiday overlapped in 2004. If that is an issue again in 2016, it may affect the date of the caucuses above. Moving it up further would perhaps push the envelope a bit too much, but the state parties may opt to hold the caucuses on a Tuesday -- a week before New Hampshire on January 19 -- as they did in 2012. 

² The state parties have the option of choosing either the first Tuesday in March date called for in the statute or moving up to the first Tuesday in February.

³ The state parties must agree on a date on which to hold caucuses by March 1 in the year prior to a presidential election. If no agreement is reached, the caucuses are set for the first Tuesday in February.

⁴ The Western States Presidential Primary in Utah is scheduled for the first Tuesday in February, but the contest will only be held on that date if the state legislature decides to allocate funds for the primary.  If (and only if) there is no Western States Presidential Primary (i.e.: the legislature does not fund the February contest) will the fourth Tuesday in June primary for other offices be an option available to the Utah parties according to the state law.

⁵ Democratic-sponsored legislation would establish a specific date for the Florida presidential primary; the second Tuesday in March. 

⁶ See definition of "Spring primary" for clause dealing with the timing of the presidential primary.
⁷ Kansas has not held a presidential primary since 1992. Funds have not been appropriated by the legislature for the primary since that time. That said, there are laws in place providing for a presidential preference primary. Assuming funding, the Kansas secretary of state has the option of choosing a date -- on or before November 1 in the year preceding the presidential election -- that either coincides with at least 5 other states' delegate selection events or is on the first Tuesday in April or before.
⁸ A Republican-sponsored bill during the 2013 session of the Nevada legislature would create a consolidated primary (presidential primary together with state primaries) and move the contest from June to January.
⁹ The North Carolina primary is now scheduled for the Tuesday following the South Carolina primary if the South Carolina contest is prior to March 15. Given the protected status South Carolina enjoys with the national parties, a primary prior to March 15 is a certainty for both parties in the Palmetto state. The link to the North Carolina statute does not yet reflect the change made to the presidential primary law. Language laying out the parameters for the primary can be found in the bill (HB 589) signed into law last summer.

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So, It Turns Out Arizona Has Actually Moved Its Presidential Primary Back on the Calendar

FHQ is still trying to figure out how and/or why,¹ but Arizona's presidential primary calendar move slipped under our radar back in March and April when the change happened.

Here's the timeline of the move:

• John Cavanaugh (R-23rd, Fountain Hills) introduced legislation in the state House charging the Arizona secretary of state with creating an online system for signing nomination petitions among other things. The bill was introduced in late January about two weeks into the 2014 state legislative session. 
• Other than an section ordering issue within the bill, the legislation was not amended in any way in the House. It passed unanimously almost a month after its introduction on February 24.
• The bill was transmitted to the state Senate one day later.
• About a week later on March 4, the relevant amendment was added and unanimously agreed to by the Senate Committee on Elections with a "do pass as amended" distinction:
• 16-241. Presidential preference election; conduct of election: A. A presidential preference election shall be held on the fourth Tuesday in February IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING MARCH 15 of each year in which the President of the United States is elected to give qualified electors the opportunity to express their preference for the presidential candidate of the political party indicated as their preference by the record of their registration.  No other election may appear on the same ballot as the presidential preference election.
• The Senate Rules Committee concurred on March 10, clearing the path for the bill to be considered on the Senate floor. 
• The Senate Committee of the Whole passed the bill -- do pass as amended -- on April 8.
• That procedural vote cleared the way for the Senate to finally pass the bill -- with just two dissenting votes -- a day later on April 9.
• Governor Jan Brewer (R) signed the bill into law a week later on April 16, moving the Arizona presidential primary back. 

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Implications:

1. Importantly, the shift brings Arizona back into compliance with the national party delegate selection rules. Any contest on or after March 1 means a state avoids sanction in 2016. Arizona was docked half its delegation in 2012 by the Republican National Committee for holding a delegate selection event prior to the first Tuesday in March. 
2. To drive the point home, it is worth noting that Arizona was among the limited number of rogue states that disrupted the Republican calendar in 2012. It won't be from the looks of it in 2016. 
3. Also, it should be said that the chairman of the RNC Rules Committee is Arizona Republican National Committeeman, Bruce Ash. That may say something about the specificity of the bill. The language in the changes to the Arizona statute go to some length in protecting the traditional Arizona delegate selection process. March 15 is the earliest date on which a state can hold a delegate selection event and allocate delegates in a winner-take-all fashion according to the amended Rules of the Republican Party. The move allows Arizona to continue allocating delegates winner-take-all. 
4. It is not clear to FHQ what the intended date -- based on the legislation -- of the 2016 Arizona presidential primary originally was/is to be. The statute now places the contest on the Tuesday "immediately following March 15" -- moving it from the last Tuesday in February. That is language that is less problematic in years in which March 15 is not on a Tuesday as it is in 2016. The new statute seems to indicate that the primary will be in March 22, 2016. My point is that the language eliminates March 15 as a date on which the primary can occur when a March 15 date would be compliant with the RNC restrictions on winner-take-all allocation. 
5. The one factor that may have motivated a March 22 date over a March date for the primary is that the former is a date currently unoccupied on the 2016 calendar. The latter, on the other hand, already has a subregional Missouri/Illinois primary scheduled and may be a landing place for a number of states wanting early dates but also winner-take-all allocation. Of course, March 22 may prove inviting to other states as well. 
6. Finally, the new law also alters the power given the Arizona governor to change the date of the presidential primary. In both 2004 and 2008, then Arizona governor, Janet Napolitano (D) used her proclamation power to move the presidential primary from the fourth Tuesday in February to the first Tuesday in February; then compliant with national party rules governing delegate selection. In 2012, Governor Jan Brewer (R) threatened to shift the date up -- in further defiance of the national party rules -- but used that threat as leverage to get the RNC to sanction a presidential primary debate in Arizona. Governor Brewer eventually opted not to issue a proclamation, keeping the Arizona primary on the last Tuesday in February but still noncompliant with the national parties' rules. The new law strips out the governor's ability to move the contest to an earlier date. However, the governor retains the power to move the primary to a later date than the one specified (and discussed) above.

Changes could still occur during the 2015 state legislative session that makes Arizona a threat to the calendar. For the time being, though, Arizona is no longer a rogue state.

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¹ Every state has a different name it seems for its presidential primary. Some call it presidential primary in the existing statute while others call it a presidential preference primary or a presidential preferential primary. Arizona is unique in calling their contest for allocating national convention delegates to presidential candidates a "presidential preference election". It seems like a minor point, but these subtle differences can make it difficult sometimes to track the comings and goings of primary calendar movement. This is one of those times.

...unfortunately.

H/T: Emily Schultheis for bringing this to my attention.

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DNC Set to Finalize 2016 Rules at Atlanta Meeting

The Democratic National Committee has kicked off its summer meeting in Atlanta. The party will meet over the weekend to hear and vote on the draft proposal for its 2016 delegate selection rules from the Rules and Bylaws Committee.

As FHQ mentioned following the spring meeting when changes to the rules were discussed, there is little in the way of substantive change to 2016 (as compared to the 2012 rules). That continues to be the big take home along with the fact that the proposed (ideal) calendar of primaries and caucuses is largely in line with that of the RNC. The underlying rules are slightly different across parties, but the intent is the same: keep contests out of January, make February about Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina, and let every other state opt for a position thereafter.

The DNC vote will close the door on national party rules tinkering for the 2016 cycle. The RNC is not set to meet again before its deadline -- for finalizing its rules -- at the end of September. That will clear the way for states to react and adapt to the changes during 2015.

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South Carolina Bill to Streamline Presidential Primary Funding Becomes Law

Back in March the South Carolina state House took up, considered and passed HB 4732. The legislation sought to clarify the method under which the Palmetto state would fund its quadrennial presidential preference primary.

As FHQ has detailed previously, South Carolina -- up to the 2008 cycle -- had left the funding of the presidential primaries of the two major parties up to the respective state parties. The dates, delegate allocation rules and funding were all the domain of the state parties before 2008. In the lead up to that election cycle, however, the South Carolina legislature shifted the funding burden to the state government while leaving the other roles to the state parties. The 2007 change to the law allowed the South Carolina State Election Commission the ability to set the filing fee while granting the parties the power to issue an additional certification fee.

But there were problems with that change. The most direct problem was that there was a reference to the 2008 election in the law. That meant that the alteration technically had a sunset provision that was not fixed prior to the 2012 presidential election cycle. More indirectly, there was in 2011-12 some question as to the process by which funds would be disbursed to the counties for implementation. In question was whether the State Election Commission divvied those funds out to the counties ahead of the election or reimbursed the counties after they had footed the bill for conducting the presidential preference primary election. The latter had seemingly been the method by which funds were disbursed/reimbursed, but that left the counties -- some of the larger ones -- crying foul in 2011.

The bill -- HB 4732 -- rectifying the first issue was unanimously passed by the state House in March and ultimately taken up and passed by the state Senate; also by a unanimous vote (in late May). The indirect intra-governmental dispute (state versus counties) over funding/reimbursement was essentially fixed in early 2012 when the counties' claim was denied by the South Carolina Supreme Court.¹

This 2014 legislation, after garnering unanimous support in both chambers of the South Carolina General Assembly, made the June signature of Governor Nikki Haley (R) nothing more than a formality. The change took effect immediately, thus clarifying the process by which South Carolina presidential primaries are funded.

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¹ The counties' petition concerned the fact that after 2008 the funding mechanism should have reverted to the state parties. However the state supreme court countered that while the law did refer only to 2008, the state budget thereafter had made allowances for funding the presidential primary.


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Jindal Signature Nudges Louisiana Presidential Primary Up Two Weeks

FHQ is late to this, but...

On Thursday, June 19, Governor Bobby Jindal (R-LA) signed HB 431 into law. Originally, the bill was intended to address campaign finance issues, but had an amendment added to it on the Senate side pushing the presidential primary up two weeks. The House later concurred with the change, sending the bill to the governor's desk.

Jindal's action now moves the Louisiana presidential primary from the third Saturday after the first Tuesday in March to the first Saturday in March. That will position the presidential primary in the Pelican state on March 5 for the 2016 presidential nomination cycle; just a few days after what is likely to be Super Tuesday on March 1.

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Find an updated 2016 presidential primary calendar here.

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Missouri Presidential Primary Shifts Back to March Following Nixon Signature

On Wednesday, Governor Jay Nixon (D-MO) signed SB 892 into law. The new law moves the Show Me state presidential primary from the first Tuesday after the first Monday in February to the second Tuesday after the first Monday in March. More importantly -- to a host of actors involved in the presidential nomination process both in Missouri and on the national stage -- the change means Missouri will be compliant with the national parties' delegate selection rules for the 2016 cycle.

Unlike the 2012 cycle, when the Missouri legislature could not make the change in 2011 or eliminate the beauty contest primary in the early days of the 2012 session, Missouri will not have to revert to compliant caucuses or apply for waivers to avoid sanction.

NOTES:

1.  Missouri has now pulled off the rare midterm year presidential primary move for the second time. The General Assembly first moved the presidential primary to the February position during the 2002 legislative session. It now moves back to March twelve years later, during another midterm year.
2.  The North Carolina presidential primary -- anchored to South Carolina's -- is now the next biggest obstacle to the national parties getting the preferred primary calendar outlined in the delegate selection rules for 2016. Missouri was an earlier contest than what North Carolina's will likely be (under the North Carolina primary law), but in 2012 at least demonstrated how willing the state parties in the Show Me state were to move into compliance with the national party rules. Still, the Missouri move is a win for the state parties hoping to send a full delegation to the conventions, the national parties hoping for limited queue jumping on the calendar and Missouri voters.
3. Missouri becomes the third state to move on the 2016 presidential primary calendar this cycle, joining Florida and North Carolina. Both Florida and Missouri pulled back from more provocative calendar positions while North Carolina last year moved into one.
4. This bill passed the state House on May 5, but was not transmitted to the governor until last Friday, May 30. There was a quick turnaround on the signature once the legislation made it to Governor Nixon's desk.

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Louisiana House Concurs on 2016 Presidential Primary Move to Early March

The Louisiana state House today unanimously concurred (96-0) with Senate amendments added to a campaign finance bill. The Senate changes would shift the Pelican state presidential primary in 2016 up two weeks to March 5. The language would move the primary from the first Saturday after the third Monday in March to the first Saturday in March.

House bill author, Tim Burns (R-89th), had no objections to the Senate changes in his brief comments describing said changes on the chamber floor. The measure now heads to Governor Bobby Jindal (R) for his consideration. The move is noncontroversial as it is within the delegate selection rules of both national parties and would move the Louisiana primary up and into a window in which a number of other southern states are currently set to hold contests in 2016.

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Amended Bill Would Bump 2016 Louisiana Presidential Primary Up Two Weeks

The Louisiana Senate added an amendment yesterday to a state House bill on campaign finance that would move the presidential primary in the Pelican state. The floor amendment was inserted into HB 431, among other changes, all of which were subsequently unanimously passed by the state Senate (38-0). The regular session of the Louisiana legislature is due to adjourn on Monday, June 2. This change, then, was a late addition. The bill now heads back to the state House where concurrence with the state Senate changes will be considered when the chamber convenes on Sunday afternoon.

The change to the presidential primary date for 2016 and beyond is rather minor. It would shift the Louisiana presidential primary up to the first Saturday of March; the Saturday following what is likely to be Super Tuesday on Tuesday, March 1. That would move the Pelican state primary up two weeks from its position on the the third Saturday after the first Tuesday in March. More simply, this would move the primary from March 19 to March 5.

There are more potential calendar changes to come in 2015, but if Louisiana were to move to March 5, that would place the primary in an eight day period with a decidedly southern flavor. Florida, Oklahoma, Texas, Tennessee and Virginia are already scheduled for March 1 -- the earliest date allowed by the national parties for non-carve-out states to conduct contests -- and Alabama and Mississippi are due to hold primaries a week later on March 8. Louisiana would fall right in the middle of that period on the calendar.

But first, the state House will have its say in the matter tomorrow.

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RNC Creates New Rule Dealing with Presidential Primary Debates

Under Rule 10(c) of the Rules of the Republican Party -- the rule granting the RNC chair the ability to create new committees with the approval of the RNC -- the Republican National Committee will charge a new committee with sanctioning the presidential primary debates during the 2016 cycle.

The new Rule 10(h) reads as follows:

There shall be a Standing Committee on Presidential Primary Debates, which shall be composed of thirteen (13) members of the Republican National Committee, five (5) of whom shall be appointed by the Chairman of the Republican National Committee, and each of the four (4) regions shall elect two (2) members, one man and one woman, at its regional caucus at the RNC Summer Meeting in each even-numbered year in which no Presidential election is held. The chairman of the Republican National Committee shall appoint the chairman of the Standing Committee on Presidential Primary Debates from among the members thereof. The Standing Committee on Presidential Primary Debates shall have the authority to sanction debates on behalf of the Republican National Committee based on input from presidential campaigns and criteria which may include but are not limited to considerations of timing, frequency, format, media outlet, and the best interests of the Republican Party. Each debate sanctioned by the Standing Committee on Presidential Primary Debates shall be known as a “Sanctioned Debate.” Any presidential candidate who participates in any debate that is not a Sanctioned Debate shall not be eligible to participate in any further Sanctioned Debates.

Rule 10(c) is the same rule that allowed for the creation of the Temporary Delegate Selection Committee that altered the rules under Chairman Steele's direction for the 2012 cycle -- Rule 10(d) in the 2008 Rules of the Republican Party -- and earlier this cycle created another temporary commission dealing with the preparation and planning of the national convention (Rule 10(g)). The difference between those committees and the new committee on presidential primary debates is that the latter is a standing committee. Unlike the other standing committees the rules call for, the debates committee provision is not housed in Rule 10(a) like the other seven "standing" committees.

The 2016 trial run of the debates committee may decide whether it joins the others in 10(a) at the next convention in the rules for 2020.

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Missouri Poised to Move Presidential Primary Back into Compliance with National Party Rules

The Missouri House on May 5 passed SB 892 on a largely party line vote. The legislation would shift the date of the presidential primary in the Show Me state from the first Tuesday after the first Monday in February to the first Tuesday after the second Tuesday in March.

Monday was a busy day for SB 892. The bill first received the "Do Pass" clearance from the state House Fiscal Review Committee and subsequently passed both a procedural vote that saw no amendments added and then a final vote.¹ The latter saw a near-unified Republican majority in the chamber vote in favor of the move while all but two in the House Democratic caucus voted against the measure. Just three Republicans voted down the move in a 101-47 final tally. The bill then moved back to its chamber of origin -- the state Senate -- where it was ordered enrolled.

The next stop for SB 892 is the governor's desk.

Unlike 2011, when similar legislation was passed and vetoed, this is a clean bill that only shifts the date of the presidential primary. The reason Governor Nixon vetoed the 2011 legislation was that it also included provisions that would have curbed gubernatorial power in the area of appointments to fill vacancies to statewide offices. Without that, Nixon is very likely to sign something -- moving the primary into compliance with national party rules -- that he supported in 2011. His support for moving the primary back was the reason he included it in his call for a special session that year. That special session devolved into several inter-chamber disputes one of which derailed the effort to shift the presidential primary back.

Should Governor Nixon sign SB 892, it would be a big win for the national parties. It would clear a major obstacle to the calendars for which both parties appear to be aiming.

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¹ Much of this was a formality. The House had previously passed its own version of this bill with the exact same language (HB 1902). It was virtually a given, then, that the Senate version would sail through the House. It did with no problems.

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