Showing posts with label Oklahoma. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Oklahoma. Show all posts

Thursday, August 6, 2020

The Electoral College Map (8/6/20)

Update for August 6.


Changes (August 6)
StateBeforeAfter
Maine CD2
Toss Up Trump
Toss Up Biden
A busy Thursday brought 14 new polls from 11 states across all six categories at FHQ. That is a lot at which to look and despite the temptation to think that the new data provides a more robust sense of the overall state of the race, there were a few polls in the set that appear to be outliers given existing polling to this point in 2020.

Outliers though some of today's surveys may have been, there was a second poll out of the second district in Maine that shifted the jurisdiction over the partisan line and into the Toss Up Biden category, adding to the former vice president's total. Yes, the survey favored Trump, but with multiple polls, the district is now untethered from the swings in states around which it finished in November 2016. As noted below, that has been FHQ's methodological work-around for states or districts with just one or no surveys in calendar 2020. No, a couple of polls is not a significant increase in the aggregate knowledge of the race in the rural northern district in Maine, but the picture there is of a close race. And in any event, Maine's second is now on the Watch List, within a fraction of a point of shifting back onto Toss Up Trump turf.

There is more on that below, but first a quick look at the rest of today's polling releases.


Polling Quick Hits:
Arizona (Biden 47, Trump 44):
Data for Progress had a round of battleground polling in four states including Arizona. There were two versions of each poll, one with third party candidates and another with leaners (pushed with a follow up question). Over the years, FHQ has used third party candidate polls when available but has also added leaners polls when a distinction was made between versions with or without leaners. But rarely have pollsters provided two separate versions along these lines. Since the third party responses were volunteered and disappeared upon a follow up, FHQ will use the leaners versions of these polls. But note that in all cases that means a slightly larger margin for Biden, one that did not change the FHQ classification of any of the four states.

As for the Arizona survey from DfP itself, it varies little from the averages established for both candidates here at FHQ. As it stands now in the averages, Biden leads 47.5 to Trump's 44.


Indiana (Trump 55, Biden 38):
The recent wave of Morning Consult surveys in red states with potentially competitive Senate races also included a poll of the presidential race in Indiana. And although the polling has been sporadic and scarce in the Hoosier state in calendar 2020, what survey work has been done there has consistently found Biden in the upper 30s. The cause for any variance in the margins across Indiana polling so far has been Trump's share of support. But this survey has the president at his high water mark and nudges the average closer to where things were on election day in 2016. Indiana may be closer in 2020, but it remains a Strong Trump state.


Iowa (Trump 46, Biden 45 via Data for Progress | Biden 49, Trump 43 via David Binder Research):
Of the two surveys released out of the Hawkeye state, the DfP poll is more in line with where things stand given the full set of polls in the state in 2020. The Binder Research poll? Well, it simultaneously finds Biden at his apex in the state and Trump at his low point during 2020. If the former is consistent with the aggregated (and weighted) picture in Iowa, then the latter is very much an outlier (and that is largely true for the other three midwestern surveys from Binder). And while that outlier did not alter Iowa's standing at a toss up state tipped toward the president, it was enough to push the state not only onto the Watch List below but right up against the partisan line on the Electoral College Spectrum.


Kentucky (Trump 52, Biden 45 via Bluegrass Data Analytics | Trump 50, Biden 41 via Quinnipiac):
Speaking of outliers, there may be a pair of them represented in the releases out of Kentucky today. The Bluegrass state has not finished a single digit race since Bill Clinton carried the state by less than a point during his reelection bid in 1996. Kentucky may be closer in 2020 than it has been in recent cycles, but both of these polls have Biden well ahead of not only where Clinton was in 2016 but where Democrats have been on average there over the last three cycles. The same is true for Trump, but in reverse. The best way to put these two polls into context is to compare them to the average swing across all states from 2016 to 2020. On average, the shift has been about seven and three-quarters points toward the Democrats. Together, these surveys would represent a 22 point swing. There have been some large shifts in some states from election day 2016 to aggregated polling now, but none of them have been close to 22 points.


Maine (Biden 53, Trump 43 via Data for Progress | Biden 52, Trump 37 via Quinnipiac):
Meanwhile in Maine, things look a bit more normal. A Biden +10 and a Biden +15. Split the difference and one basically has something close to the FHQ average margin in the Pine Tree state: Biden +11.73. As always, follow the averages rather than the individual polls.


Maine CD1 (Biden 61, Trump 30):
The Quinnipiac survey of Maine also included a breakdown by congressional district and the picture in the pair looks largely as expected. Biden has larger lead in the more southern of the two districts, but the margin there has ballooned compared to how things were in November 2016 when Clinton won the first by around 15 points. Regardless, the district is a safe electoral vote for Biden with or without this poll.


Maine CD2 (Trump 45, Biden 44):
The second district is more competitive. And that has been borne out of the early polling there. While Trump won the second comfortably in 2016, that ten point advantage has disappeared, giving way to a very small Biden lead now. Like the first, the second district in Maine seems locked in, albeit as a toss up -- for one candidate or the other -- rather than safe.


Michigan (Biden 51, Trump 41):
While the two less frequently surveyed states of the Binder Research midwestern series are more clearly outliers, the Michigan poll is among the couple that has been both polled more often and is more in line with other polling in those states. [Wisconsin is the other.] But while that is true, the Biden +10 is on the upper end of the range of recent poll releases out of the Wolverine state. And that is more a function of Biden being over 50 percent than it is Trump's share of support. The president has been more steady in the low 40s there.


Minnesota (Biden 54, Trump 36):
Like the one in Iowa, the Binder poll in Minnesota is an outlier. Other polls of the Land of 10,000 Lakes have had Biden north of 50 percent, but none have had Trump as low as the mid-30s there. That is the story from this small sample survey. As in Iowa, it bumped the average margin in Minnesota up enough to put the state on the Watch List. But Minnesota is treading a different line than Iowa, out between the Lean and Strong Biden categories. But for now Minnesota remains a lean.


North Carolina (Biden 49, Trump 45):
In the Tar Heel state, Data for Progress found Biden up four points with the former vice president running a couple of points ahead of his FHQ average share of support. Trump, meanwhile, was right on his. Both were enough to inch the average margin in North Carolina closer to two points. Biden's has been a fairly steady but narrow lead there.


Oklahoma (Trump 56, Biden 36):
A new DFM Research survey of the Sooner state shows that while Oklahoma continues to be a safe Republican state, there has been a shift in the 2020 polling there toward the Democrats as compared to the results in 2016. And in the case of Oklahoma, that shift as measured at FHQ has been one of the largest out there. This survey, an internal Democratic poll, is right on the candidates' respective shares of support in the FHQ averages, which represents a 14-15 point shift from 2016. Yes, that is a pretty big shift in one of the most Republican states in 2016, but it is much less an outlier swing than the Kentucky example above. And the bottom line is that Oklahoma is still a safe Republican state.


South Carolina (Trump 47, Biden 42):
The Palmetto state is probably a safe bet for Trump in November too. But of late South Carolina has settled into a mid-single digit lead area for the president. And the latest survey of the state from Quinnipiac builds on that outlook. Trump is ahead but is more off his 2016 pace than Biden has improved upon Clinton's showing there four years ago. And the healthy chunk of undecideds likely affects Trump's lagging numbers as well. But this is a poll that reduced the FHQ average margin to within a point of the Toss Up/Lean line on Trump's side of the ledger.


Wisconsin (Biden 53, Trump 42):
Last but not least is the Binder Research survey of Wisconsin. Look, the story with this poll in the Badger state is much the same as the one for the Michigan poll above. It may not be an outlier by definition, but it is definitely on the upper end of the range of margins in recent polling there. Despite that, Wisconsin continues to be lodged in the heart of the Lean Biden category and that is still a significant story in a state that was among the most competitive in 2016. That it is tipped more than six points in Biden's direction says a lot about where this race stands overall at the moment.


NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2020 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.


The Electoral College Spectrum1
MA-112
(14)
NJ-14
(173)
WI-10
NE CD2-1
(253)
AK-3
(125)
TN-11
(65)
HI-4
(18)
OR-7
(180)
PA-203
(273 | 285)
MO-10
(122)
IN-11
(54)
CA-55
(73)
DE-3
(183)
FL-29
(302 | 265)
SC-9
(112)
ID-4
(43)
VT-3
(76)
CO-9
(192)
NV-6
(308 | 236)
MT-3
(103)
KY-8
(39)
NY-29
(105)
NM-5
(197)
AZ-11
(319 | 230)
UT-6
(100)
AL-9
(31)
ME CD1-1
WA-12
(118)
ME-2
(199)
NC-15
(334 | 219)
MS-6
(94)
ND-3
(22)
MD-10
(128)
VA-13
(212)
ME CD2-1
OH-18
(353 | 204)
AR-6
(88)
SD-3
(19)
IL-20
(148)
MN-10
(222)
IA-6
(185)
LA-8
NE CD1-1
(82)
OK-7
(16)
RI-4
(152)
MI-16
(238)
GA-16
(179)
KS-6
(73)
WV-5
(9)
CT-7
(159)
NH-4
(242)
TX-38
(163)
NE-2
(67)
WY-3
NE CD3-1
(4)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states plus the Pennsylvania), he would have 285 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics.


To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College.

3 Pennsylvania
 is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state.

A lot of new polls brought a number of changes in the order on the Spectrum above. Maine's first district pushed deeper into the far Democratic column while Maine's second moved across the partisan line into Biden territory. That may have changed the overall tally of electoral votes, but Iowa also moved up to the partisan line as well. It is now the most competitive state on Trump's side of the line. Ohio remains the closest overall. Indiana and Kentucky also shifted around within the safest group of red states, but moved in opposite directions given new data. Indiana broke out of a cluster near the Strong/Lean Trump line and Kentucky moved closer to the top of the far right column on the Spectrum. Both are now in that column.

The Watch List below lost Indiana, Louisiana and Nebraska's second district (the latter two because, with no 2020 polls, they were partially tethered to the swing in the Hoosier state), but gained Iowa, Minnesota and South Carolina. While the former trio of jurisdictions were on the cusp of shifting into Lean Trump territory, all are now more safely Strong Trump. And the new group of states are each now within a fraction of a point of moving in a Biden direction toward the adjacent categories. But only an Iowa change would affect any alteration to the overall electoral vote tally.

And add underpolled Nevada to that list as well.

--
There were no new polls from Nevada today.

Days since the last Nevada poll was in the field: 98.

--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State
Potential Switch
Florida
from Toss Up Biden
to Lean Biden
Georgia
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Biden
Iowa
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Biden
Maine CD2
from Toss Up Biden
to Toss Up Trump
Minnesota
from Lean Biden
to Strong Biden
Mississippi
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Missouri
from Toss Up Trump
to Lean Trump
Nebraska CD2
from Lean Biden
to Toss Up Biden
Ohio
from Toss Up Biden
to Toss Up Trump
Pennsylvania
from Lean Biden
to Toss Up Biden
South Carolina
from Lean Trump
to Toss Up Trump
Utah
from Lean Trump
to Strong Trump
Virginia
from Strong Biden
to Lean Biden
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was  too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.


--
Related posts:
The Electoral College Map (8/5/20)

The Electoral College Map (8/4/20)

The Electoral College Map (8/3/20)


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Tuesday, March 3, 2020

2020 Democratic Delegate Allocation: OKLAHOMA

OKLAHOMA

Election type: primary
Date: March 3
Number of delegates: 43 [8 at-large, 5 PLEOs, 24 congressional district, 6 automatic/superdelegates]
Allocation method: proportional statewide and at the congressional district level
Threshold to qualify for delegates: 15%
2016: proportional primary
Delegate selection plan


--
Changes since 2016
If one followed the 2016 series on the Republican process here at FHQ, then you may end up somewhat disappointed. The two national parties manage the presidential nomination process differently. The Republican National Committee is much less hands-on in regulating state and state party activity in the delegate selection process than the Democratic National Committee is. That leads to a lot of variation from state to state and from cycle to cycle on the Republican side. Meanwhile, the DNC is much more top down in its approach. Thresholds stay the same. It is a 15 percent barrier that candidates must cross in order to qualify for delegates. That is standard across all states. The allocation of delegates is roughly proportional. Again, that is applied to every state.

That does not mean there are no changes. The calendar has changed as have other facets of the process such as whether a state has a primary or a caucus.

Changes were limited in Oklahoma from 2016 to 2020. The primary stayed on Super Tuesday and Sooner state Democrats gained a superdelegate and lost one district delegates in 2020 compared to the 2016 delegation. It was a status quo interim period between the last cycle and 2020 in Oklahoma.


Thresholds
The standard 15 percent qualifying threshold applies both statewide and on the congressional district level.


Delegate allocation (at-large and PLEO delegates)
To win any at-large or PLEO (pledged Party Leader and Elected Officials) delegates a candidate must win 15 percent of the statewide vote. Only the votes of those candidates above the threshold will count for the purposes of the separate allocation of these two pools of delegates.

See New Hampshire synopsis for an example of how the delegate allocation math works for all categories of delegates.


Delegate allocation (congressional district delegates)
Oklahoma's 24 congressional district delegates are split across 5 congressional districts and have a variation of just two delegates across districts from the measure of Democratic strength Oklahoma Democrats are using based on the results of the 2016 presidential election and the 2018 gubernatorial election in the state. That method apportions delegates as follows...
CD1 - 5 delegates*
CD2 - 4 delegates
CD3 - 4 delegates
CD4 - 5 delegates*
CD5 - 6 delegates

*Bear in mind that districts with odd numbers of national convention delegates are potentially important to winners (and those above the qualifying threshold) within those districts. Rounding up for an extra delegate initially requires less in those districts than in districts with even numbers of delegates.


Delegate allocation (automatic delegates/superdelegates)
Superdelegates are free to align with a candidate of their choice at a time of their choosing. While their support may be a signal to voters in their state (if an endorsement is made before voting in that state), superdelegates will only vote on the first ballot at the national convention if half of the total number of delegates -- pledged plus superdelegates -- have been pledged to one candidate. Otherwise, superdelegates are locked out of the voting unless 1) the convention adopts rules that allow them to vote or 2) the voting process extends to a second ballot. But then all delegates, not just superdelegates will be free to vote for any candidate.

[NOTE: All Democratic delegates are pledged and not bound to their candidates. They are to vote in good conscience for the candidate to whom they have been pledged, but technically do not have to. But they tend to because the candidates and their campaigns are involved in vetting and selecting their delegates through the various selection processes on the state level. Well, the good campaigns are anyway.]


Selection
All 37 pledged delegates in Oklahoma are chosen at the presidential preference primary state convention on April 4 based on the results in the respective congressional districts for district delegates and statewide results for the PLEO and then at-large delegates.

Importantly, if a candidate drops out of the race before the selection of statewide delegates, then any statewide delegates allocated to that candidate will be reallocated to the remaining candidates. If Candidate X is in the race in early April when the Oklahoma statewide delegate selection takes place but Candidate Y is not, then any statewide delegates allocated to Candidate Y in the March primary would be reallocated to Candidate X. [This same feature is not something that applies to district delegates.] This reallocation only applies if a candidate has fully dropped out. Candidates with suspended campaigns are still candidates and can fill those slots allocated them.

Sunday, October 23, 2016

The Electoral College Map (10/23/16)



New State Polls (10/23/16)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Clinton
Trump
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Florida
10/20-10/21
+/- 3.6%
1042 likely voters
46
43
3
+3
+2.30
Iowa
10/7-10/10
--
917 likely voters
41
37
9
+4
+1.03
Ohio
10/7-10/10
--
1304 likely voters
44
39
9
+5
+0.80
Oklahoma
10/18-10/20
+/- 4.26%
530 likely voters
30
60
6
+30
+24.91
Texas
10/20-10/21
+/- 4.4%
1031 likely voters
43
46
3
+3
+6.77


Polling Quick Hits:
With just 16 days until Election Day there were just a trickle of polls to close out the weekend. Only two -- a pair of polls from YouGov -- were in the field completely following the final presidential debate. The rest were either older (Lucid surveys of Iowa and Ohio) or straddled the third debate (Sooner Poll).

Florida:
There have been Florida surveys that have favored Trump since the first debate, but they are few and far between. The latest in the Sunshine state from YouGov is yet another poll to add to the overwhelming evidence that Clinton is ahead in the two to four point range. Clinton has carved out a consistent spot in the mid-40s while Trump has maintained a position in the low 40s with little variation. This survey is consistent with that.


Iowa:
If leads have been atypical in Florida polls for Trump, the same is true in Iowa but for Clinton. This difference between the two states is that it is rare to see a day pass without a new poll from the Sunshine state. Iowa, on the other hand, has mostly witnessed a range from tied to +8 for Trump since the beginning of September. This older, internet-based poll from Lucid in the Hawkeye state is a bit of an aberration in that it finds Clinton ahead. But it is one of just a handful of polls in the state in that September to October window. There have only been a few surveys but that has not meant wild variation in the averages. Instead, Iowa has been stuck in neutral favoring Trump but by a margin less than one and a half points. Any marked shift toward Clinton could bring Iowa to her side of the partisan line, but that is anything but apparent at this point.


Ohio:
The Lucid poll hit in a sequence of the polling in Ohio following the first debate and the Trump tapes where Clinton was reeling off a series of survey wins. In the time since, however, the polling has narrowed somewhat (or has become more variable in any event). It is less that the polling has narrowed then it is that the average here at FHQ had shrunk. Clinton's grasp on the lead has been tenuous but persistent in the Buckeye state. That remains so even with the addition of a good poll there for the former Secretary of State.


Oklahoma:
No surprises in the Sooner state. Oklahoma still resides at the far lower right end of the Electoral College Spectrum. The latest Sooner Poll only confirmed that positioning.


Texas:
The Lone Star state has taken up a position well within the heart of the Lean Trump area almost the whole cycle. That was already about half of the margin by which Romney won the state in 2012. In other words, if Texas is a harbinger, then there was already evidence that the overall map had shifted some toward the Democrats. But in October that Lean area advantage has given way to a sequence of surveys in Texas that has roughly halved that Trump advantage. Those five to nine point polling leads of the summer are now two to four points. Now, the average here at FHQ has trailed off more slowly, but it has gradually crept down and now Texas is the closest of the small number of Lean Trump states; the one on the Lean/Toss Up line. The odds are that Texas remains red on Election Day, but if the conversation is whether the Lone Star state is going to turn blue, then the Electoral College majority is already in the Democrats' possession.


--
Changes (10/23/16)
The addition of the Lucid Iowa poll decreased the Hawkeye state average enough to push Iowa past Arizona and up against the partisan line. Texas, too, moved in the direction of the partisan line, swapping places with Missouri on the Electoral College Spectrum. Oklahoma moved in the opposite direction. Now, only Wyoming separates Oklahoma from being the reddest of red states.

Both the map and the Watch List remained unchanged from a day ago.




The Electoral College Spectrum1
MD-102
(13)
WA-12
(162)
PA-20
(263)
MO-10
(126)
SD-3
(53)
HI-4
(17)
NJ-14
(176)
CO-94
(272 | 275)
AK-3
(116)
AR-6
(50)
VT-3
(20)
OR-7
(183)
FL-29
(301 | 266)
SC-9
(113)
ND-3
(44)
CA-55
(75)
NM-5
(188)
NC-15
(316 | 237)
IN-11
(104)
KY-8
(41)
MA-11
(86)
MI-16
(204)
NV-6
(322 | 222)
UT-6
(93)
NE-53
(33)
NY-29+13
(116)
VA-13
(217)
OH-18
(340 | 216)
MS-6
(87)
AL-9
(28)
IL-20
(136)
ME-23
(219)
IA-6
(198)
KS-6
(81)
ID-4
(19)
DE-3
(139)
MN-10
(229)
AZ-11
(192)
LA-8
(75)
WV-5
(15)
CT-7
(146)
WI-10
(239)
GA-16+13
(181)
MT-3
(67)
OK-7
(10)
RI-4
(150)
NH-4
(243)
TX-38
(164)
TN-11
(64)
WY-3
(3)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Clinton's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 275 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics.
To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College.

3 Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral college votes to candidates in a more proportional manner. The statewide winner receives the two electoral votes apportioned to the state based on the two US Senate seats each state has. Additionally, the winner within a congressional district is awarded one electoral vote. Given current polling, all five Nebraska electoral votes would be allocated to Trump. In Maine, a split seems more likely. Trump leads in Maine's second congressional district while Clinton is ahead statewide and in the first district. She would receive three of the four Maine electoral votes and Trump the remaining electoral vote. Those congressional district votes are added approximately where they would fall in the Spectrum above.

4 Colorado is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Currently, Colorado is in the Toss Up Clinton category.



NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.


The Watch List1
State
Switch
Colorado
from Toss Up Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Indiana
from Lean Trump
to Strong Trump
Mississippi
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Ohio
from Toss Up Clinton
to Toss Up Trump
Oregon
from Lean Clinton
to Strong Clinton
Pennsylvania
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
Utah
from Lean Trump
to Strong Trump
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/22/16)

The Electoral College Map (10/21/16)

The Electoral College Map (10/20/16)

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Tuesday, August 2, 2016

The Electoral College Map (8/2/16)




New State Polls (8/2/16)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Clinton
Trump
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Georgia
7/31
+/- 4.0%
787 likely voters
45.7
45.9
3.0
+0.2
+1.88
Georgia
7/29-7/31
+/- 4.0%
628 likely voters
42
46
5
+4
--
Oklahoma
7/20-7/25
+/- 4.91%
398 likely voters
29
53
11
+24
+24


Polling Quick Hits:
Georgia:
Most will zero in on the tied Landmark poll of the Peach state, but when considered alongside the latest Survey USA poll in Georgia, one gets a picture that on par with the state of affairs in the state at the moment. In other words, split the difference between these two polls and one gets the same Trump +2 picture that was already where the FHQ average was. The addition of these polls shaves a few one-hundredths off the average, but Georgia remains a close state. However, it is one that is still less a need than a want for Clinton. Arizona and Nevada are clearer targets (see Spectrum below). All three are needs for Trump in any legitimate path to 270.


Oklahoma:
Out in the Sooner state, well, the one thing that can be taken from this is that there is now some data in from an unpolled, typically ruby red state. That has been lacking when compared to the other five categories FHQ uses. Not surprisingly, the Sooner Poll shows Trump well ahead of Clinton in Oklahoma. Yet, Oklahoma was a state where Romney won in November by 2:1. Trump is off that pace in the heart of summer, but is in a comparable position to where Romney was at a similar time (in the same poll) in 2012. Sure, Trump is lagging, but not by much. Needless to say, Oklahoma is not showing signs of being dramatically closer (as neighboring Kansas has).

--
Georgia keeps its position on the Spectrum below while Oklahoma and West Virginia flip flop spots on the bottom right at the far Republican end of the figure. Neither is on the Watch List. The decay function, if one wants to call it that in this instance, has the average margin in Arizona slightly growing -- in favor of Trump -- over time. It has nudged past Nevada leaving the Silver state as the closest Trump-leaning toss up state. Both Arizona and Nevada remain on the Watch List within a fraction of a point of shifting into Toss Up Clinton territory. Unlike all of the Clinton toss ups, Arizona and Nevada -- on the Trump side of the victory line -- are the only toss ups on the Watch List. In other words, they are the closest to switching sides and altering the current electoral vote tallies.




The Electoral College Spectrum1
HI-42
(7)
NJ-14
(175)
VA-133
(269 | 282)
UT-6
(158)
LA-8
(55)
MD-10
(17)
DE-3
(178)
IA-63
(275 | 269)
AK-3
(152)
SD-3
(47)
RI-4
(21)
WI-10
(188)
NH-4
(279 | 263)
MO-10
(149)
ND-3
(44)
MA-11
(32)
NM-5
(193)
FL-29
(308 | 259)
IN-11
(139)
ID-4
(41)
VT-3
(35)
OR-7
(200)
NC-15
(323 | 230)
TX-38
(128)
NE-5
(37)
CA-55
(90)
CT-7
(207)
OH-18
(341 | 215)
KS-6
(90)
AL-9
(32)
NY-29
(119)
ME-4
(211)
NV-6
(197)
TN-11
(84)
KY-8
(23)
IL-20
(139)
CO-9
(220)
AZ-11
(191)
SC-9
(73)
OK-7
(15)
MN-10
(149)
MI-16
(236)
GA-16
(180)
AR-6
(64)
WV-5
(8)
WA-12
(161)
PA-20
(256)
MS-6
(164)
MT-3
(58)
WY-3
(3)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Virginia (all Clinton's toss up states plus Virginia), he would have 282 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics.


To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College.

3 Iowa and Virginia are collectively the states where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. If those two states are separated with Clinton winning Virginia and Trump, Iowa, then there would be a tie in the Electoral College.



NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.



The Watch List1
State
Switch
Alaska
from Lean Trump
to Toss Up Trump
Arizona
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Clinton
Arkansas
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Missouri
from Lean Trump
to Toss Up Trump
Nevada
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Clinton
New Jersey
from Strong Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Pennsylvania
from Toss Up Clinton
to Lean Clinton
South Carolina
from Lean Trump
to Strong Trump
Tennessee
from Lean Trump
to Strong Trump
Utah
from Toss Up Trump
to Lean Trump
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.



Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (8/1/16)

The Electoral College Map (7/29/16)

The Electoral College Map (7/28/16)

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