2012 Republican Delegate Allocation: Delaware

This is the thirty-second in a multipart series of posts that will examine the Republican delegate allocation by state.¹ The main goal of this exercise is to assess the rules for 2012 -- especially relative to 2008 -- in order to gauge the impact the changes to the rules along the winner-take-all/proportionality spectrum may have on the race for the Republican nomination. As FHQ has argued in the past, this has often been cast as a black and white change. That the RNC has winner-take-all rules and the Democrats have proportional rules. Beyond that, the changes have been wrongly interpreted in a great many cases as having made a 180º change from straight winner-take-all to straight proportional rules in all pre-April 1 primary and caucus states. That is not the case. 

The new requirement has been adopted in a number of different ways across the states. Some have moved to a conditional system where winner-take-all allocation is dependent upon one candidate receiving 50% or more of the vote and others have responded by making just the usually small sliver of a state's delegate apportionment from the national party -- at-large delegates -- proportional as mandated by the party. Those are just two examples. There are other variations in between that also allow state parties to comply with the rules. FHQ has long argued that the effect of this change would be to lengthen the process. However, the extent of the changes from four years ago is not as great as has been interpreted and points to the spacing of the 2012 primary calendar -- and how that interacts with the ongoing campaign -- being a much larger factor in the accumulation of delegates (Again, especially relative to the 2008 calendar).

For links to the other states' plans see the Republican Delegate Selection Plans by State section in the left sidebar under the calendar.


DELAWARE

Here we are staring an April 24 series of primaries in the face and the 2012 presidential primary calendar has its first real, honest-to-gosh, winner-take-all primary. Well, the First state will be the first Republican contest to allocate/bind all of its delegates to the winner of its presidential preference primary without some sort of caveat. In Florida and Arizona, all of the delegates were allocated to Mitt Romney, but both states were penalized. Both not only lost half of their delegates but their automatic delegates lost their convention voting privileges. Maryland allocated all of its delegates to Romney as well, but the former Massachusetts governor had to win each of the Old Line state's congressional districts to do so. In Washington, DC, Romney also won all of the delegates. Well, all of the non-automatic delegates from the District were bound to him while the automatic delegates remained unbound free agents. The situation was similar in Puerto Rico with the exception that the allocation was conditionally winner-take-all/proportional.²

But Delaware is the first state to allocate and bind all 17 of its delegates -- including automatic delegates -- to the winner of today's closed primary.

Delaware delegate breakdown:

• 17 total delegates
• 11 at-large delegates
• 3 congressional district delegates
• 3 automatic delegates

At-large/congressional district/automatic allocation: The winner of the primary -- whether by plurality or majority -- wins all 17 delegates from the state of Delaware.

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It should be noted that Newt Gingrich picked up the endorsement of Delaware Republican National Committeewoman Priscilla Rakestraw. However, should someone other than Gingrich win the Delaware primary, Ms. Rakestraw will be bound to the winner through the first ballot at the Tampa convention regardless of her preference.

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¹ FHQ would say 50 part, but that doesn't count the territories and Washington, DC.

² If you read that paragraph closely, note that Romney has done quite well in states that have allocated their delegates on a winner-take-all basis. In those states where conditionality rules have been triggered, Romney has been the beneficiary.


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2012 Republican Delegate Allocation: Rhode Island

2012 Republican Delegate Allocation: Connecticut

Race to 1144: MN, MO & WY Conventions

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The 2012 Presidential Primary Calendar (8/3/11)

Delaware's presidential primary move to April 24 means another calendar update:

[Click to Enlarge]

Reading the Map:

As was the case with the maps from past cycles, the earlier a contest is scheduled in 2012, the darker the color in which the state is shaded. Iowa, for instance, is a much deeper shade of blue in January than South Dakota is in June. There are, however, some differences between the earlier maps and the one that appears above.

1. Several caucus states have yet to select a date for the first step of their delegate selection processes in 2012. Until a decision is made by state parties in those states, they will appear in gray on the map.
2. The states where legislation to move the presidential primary is active are two-toned. One color indicates the timing of the primary according to the current law whereas the second color is meant to highlight the most likely month to which the primary could be moved. [With the exception of North Carolina, the proposed movement is backward.]
3. Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina are shaded on the map according to the latest possible date these states would have if Florida opts not to move their primary into compliance with the national party rules. Iowa Republicans and Nevada Republicans and Democrats have decided to accept the party-designated dates, but FHQ operates under the assumption that both will move to a point ahead of the earliest exempt state should one or more move or maintain a February or earlier date.
4. States that are bisected vertically are states where the state parties have different dates for their caucuses and/or primaries. The left hand section is shaded to reflect the state Democratic Party's scheduling while the right is for the state Republican Party's decision on the timing of its delegate selection event.

Reading the Calendar:

1. Caucus states are italicized while primary states are not. Several caucus states are missing from the list because they have not formalized the date on which their contests will be held in 2012. Colorado appears because the caucuses dates there are set by the state, whereas a state like Alaska has caucuses run by the state parties and as such do not have their dates codified in state law.
2. States that have changed dates appear twice (or more) on the calendar; once by the old date and once by the new date. The old date will be struck through while the new date will be color-coded with the amount of movement (in days) in parentheses. States in green are states that have moved to earlier dates on the calendar and states in red are those that have moved to later dates. Arkansas, for example, has moved its 2012 primary and moved it back 104 days from its 2008 position.
3. The date of any primary or caucus moves that have taken place -- whether through gubernatorial signature or state party move -- also appear in parentheses following the state's/party's new entry on the calendar.
4. States with active legislation have links to those bills included with their entries on the calendar. If there are multiple bills they are divided by chamber and/or numbered accordingly.
5. Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina appear twice. The earlier entry corresponds with the latest possible date these states would have if Florida opts not to move their primary into compliance with the national party rules. The second, later entry for each of the non-exempt states reflects the position the national parties would prefer the earliest states to hold their delegate selection events.

2012 Presidential Primary Calendar

December 2011

Monday, December 5:

Iowa caucuses¹

Tuesday, December 13:

New Hampshire¹

Saturday, December 17:

Nevada caucuses¹

South Carolina¹

A note on the placement of Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina.

An additional note on WHY ON EARTH Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina are placed in December.

January 2012

Tuesday, January 31:

Florida (bills: House 1, 2/Senate) (moved to no date: 5/19/11)

February 2012

Monday, February 6:

Iowa caucuses (moved: 2/8/11) (based on national party rules)

Tuesday, February 7:

Alabama

Arkansas

California

Connecticut

Delaware

Georgia (bills: House) (moved to no date: 5/13/11)

Illinois

Minnesota Republican caucuses (bills: House/Senate) (moved: 3/1/11)

Missouri (bills: House 1, 2, 3/Senate)

Montana Republican caucuses

New Jersey (bills: Assembly 1, 2/Senate 1, 2)

New York

Oklahoma

Tennessee

Utah

Saturday, February 11:

Louisiana

Tuesday, February 14:

Maryland

New Hampshire (based on national party rules)

Virginia

Washington, DC

Saturday, February 18:

Nevada Republican caucuses (-28) (moved: 12/16/10) (based on national party rules)

Nevada Democratic caucuses² (-28) (moved: 2/24/11) (based on national party rules)

Tuesday, February 21:

Hawaii Republican caucuses (+88) (moved: 5/16/09)

Wisconsin (bills: Assembly, Senate)

Tuesday, February 28:

Arizona³

Michigan⁴ (bills: House)

South Carolina (based on national party rules)

March 2012

Tuesday, March 6 (Super Tuesday):

Colorado caucuses (+14) (bills: House) (moved: 5/27/11)

Idaho Republican caucuses (+70) (moved: 7/16/11)

Massachusetts⁴ (bills: House)

Minnesota Democratic caucuses (-28) (moved: 3/17/11)

Ohio

Oklahoma (-28) (bills: House 1, 2, 3/Senate 1, 2) (moved: 5/3/11)

Rhode Island

Tennessee (-28) (bills: House 1, 2, 3/Senate 1, 2, 3) (moved: 5/9/11)

Texas (bills: House/Senate)

Vermont

Virginia (-21) (bills: House 1, 2/Senate) (moved: 3/25/11)

Sunday, March 11:

Maine Democratic caucuses (-28) (moved: 3/27/11)

Tuesday, March 13:

Alabama (-35) (bills: House 1, 2) (moved: 6/9/11)

Hawaii Republican caucuses (+67 and -21) (moved: 5/14/11)

Mississippi

Utah Democratic caucuses (-35) (moved: 3/25/11)

Tuesday, March 20:

Colorado caucuses

Illinois (-42) (bills: Senate) (moved: 3/17/10)

Saturday, March 24:

Louisiana (-42) (bills: House) (moved: 6/29/11)

April 2012

Tuesday, April 3:

Kansas (bills: House 1, 2/Senate -- cancel primary) (canceled: 5/25/11)

Maryland (-49) (bills: House/Senate 1, 2) (moved: 5/10/11)

Washington, DC (-49) (bills: Council) (moved: 4/27/11)

Saturday, April 7:

Hawaii Democratic caucuses (-46) (moved: 3/18/11)

Wyoming Democratic caucuses (-28) (moved: 3/16/11)

Saturday, April 14:

Idaho Democratic caucuses (-67) (moved: 5/1/11)

Kansas Democratic caucuses (-67) (moved: 5/24/11)

Nebraska Democratic caucuses (-63) (moved: 3/5/11)

Sunday, April 15:

Alaska Democratic caucuses (-68) (moved: 4/4/11)

Washington Democratic caucuses (-64) (moved: 4/30/11)

Tuesday, April 24:

Connecticut (-77) (bills: House) (moved: 7/8/11)

Delaware (-77) (bills: Senate) (moved: 7/27/11)

New York (-77) (bills: Assembly/Senate) (moved: 7/13/11)

Pennsylvania

Rhode Island (-49) (bills: House/Senate) (moved: 7/1/11)

May 2012

Saturday, May 5:

Michigan Democratic caucuses (-67) (moved: 4/13/11)

Tuesday, May 8:

Indiana

North Carolina (bills: Senate)

Ohio (-63) (bills: House) (moved: 7/5/11)

West Virginia

Tuesday, May 15:

Idaho (+7) (bills: House) (moved: 2/23/11)

Nebraska

Oregon (bills: House)

Tuesday, May 22:

Arkansas (-105) (bills: House) (moved: 2/4/09)

Idaho

Kentucky (bills: House) (died: legislature adjourned)

Washington (bills: House 1, 2/Senate -- cancel primary) (canceled: 5/12/11)

June 2012

Tuesday, June 5:

California (-119) (bills: Assembly) (moved: 7/29/11)

Montana (GOP -119) (moved: 6/18/10)

New Mexico⁵ (bills: Senate) (died: legislature adjourned)

North Dakota Democratic caucuses (-119) (moved: 4/21/11)

South Dakota

Tuesday, June 26:

Utah (Republicans only) (-140) (moved: 6/5/11)

¹ New Hampshire law calls for the Granite state to hold a primary on the second Tuesday of March or seven days prior to any other similar election, whichever is earlier. Florida is first now, so New Hampshire would be a week earlier at the latest. Traditionally, Iowa has gone on the Monday a week prior to New Hampshire. For the time being we'll wedge South Carolina in on the Saturday between New Hampshire and Florida, but these are just guesses at the moment. Any rogue states could cause a shift.

² The Nevada Democratic caucuses date is based on both DNC rules and the state party's draft delegate selection plan as of February 24, 2011.

³ In Arizona the governor can use his or her proclamation powers to move the state's primary to a date on which the event would have an impact on the nomination. In 2004 and 2008 the primary was moved to the first Tuesday in February.
⁴ Massachusetts and Michigan are the only states that passed a frontloading bill prior to 2008 that was not permanent. The Bay state reverts to its first Tuesday in March date in 2012 while Michigan will fall back to the fourth Tuesday in February.
⁵ The law in New Mexico allows the parties to decide when to hold their nominating contests. The Democrats have gone in early February in the last two cycles, but the GOP has held steady in June. They have the option of moving however.

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Delaware Governor Quietly Signs Presidential Primary Bill, Moving Election to April 24

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Delaware Governor Quietly Signs Presidential Primary Bill, Moving Election to April 24

[Click to Enlarge]

With little fanfare,¹ Delaware governor, Jack Markell (D), quietly signed SB 89 into law on Wednesday, July 27. The legislation, nearly unanimously supported in both chambers of the state legislature, calls for moving the presidential primary in the First state from the first Tuesday in February to the fourth Tuesday in April. In that slot Delaware will have a presidential primary that coincides with presidential primaries in neighboring New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and Connecticut. That regional primary should comprise the largest cache of delegates between the diminished Super Tuesday on March 6 and the first Tuesday in June when California (and likely New Jersey) hold presidential primaries concurrently with delegate selection events in Montana, New Mexico and North and South Dakota.

The move now leaves only New Jersey -- a Chris Christie signature away from moving itself -- and Missouri as the only states remaining from the 2008 Super Tuesday date. [Minnesota is an exception to that even though the Republican caucuses there are scheduled for the same date as last time. The Minnesota caucuses were scheduled for the first Tuesday in March before the state law that was changed 2008. Following passage of that law, the parties had the option of collectively deciding on a common date. Having not exercised that option by March 1 of this year, the caucuses were automatically scheduled for the first Tuesday in February. Minnesota Democrats have since opted for a March 6 date for their caucus meetings.]

You can find an update of the 2012 Presidential Primary Calendar here.

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¹ FHQ is reminded of this.

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California Presidential Primary to June 5

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Delaware House Makes Quick Work of April Presidential Primary Bill

The Delaware House spared no time in passing SB 89 after the bill emerged from committee earlier this afternoon. By a unanimous vote -- 41-0 -- on the day before the legislature is set to adjourn, the House passed and sent off to Governor Jack Markell (D) the bill that would move the First state's presidential primary back nearly three months (from the first Tuesday in February to the fourth Tuesday in April).

Should Governor Markell sign the legislation, Delaware's primary would coincide with primaries in Connecticut, New York, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island.

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Delaware House Committee Advances April Presidential Primary Legislation

The Delaware state House Administration Committee this afternoon unanimously passed -- by a vote of 5-0 -- SB 89, the bill that would move the First state's presidential primary from the first Tuesday in February to the fourth Tuesday in April. As was stated earlier today in FHQ's post updating the situation in Rhode Island, that would place Delaware on a date shared by four other neighboring states (Connecticut, New York, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island), forming a small northeastern/mid-Atlantic regional primary.

The bill now heads to the House floor for consideration there by the full lower chamber.

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Delaware Senate Votes to Pass April Presidential Primary Legislation

The Delaware state Senate on Thursday, June 16, passed SB 89 by a 19-1 vote. The bill would move the First state's presidential primary from the first Tuesday in February to the fourth Tuesday in April; coinciding with primaries in neighboring Pennsylvania and when Governor Malloy signs the legislation in the Nutmeg state, Connecticut.

The bill will now move to the Delaware state House for consideration and will have to be moved through the lower chamber prior to the legislative session adjourning at the end of the month.

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April 24th Primary Bill Passes Committee Hurdle in Delaware Senate

The Delaware state Senate Administrative Services/Elections Committee on Wednesday considered and passed SB 89 with a 4 (out of the six members) on the merits. That basically clears the way for the bill to be considered by the full Senate in relatively short order and be moved from one Democratic-controlled chamber to the next before the session ends at the end of June.

SB 89 is now on the Senate's "Ready List" and could be debated and voted upon quickly in the near future. The bill would move the First state's presidential primary from the first Tuesday in February to the last Tuesday in April -- the same date as Pennsylvania and as Connecticut is targeting with with legislation to move the primary there.

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Bill to Move Delaware Presidential Primary to April Introduced in State Senate

As expected, state Senator Michael Katz (D-4th, Centerville) introduced SB 89 in the Delaware Senate this afternoon. The bill would move the presidential primary in the first state from the first Tuesday in February to the fourth Tuesday in April. That would place the Delaware primary on the same date as the primary in Pennsylvania and the proposed date of the Connecticut primary. According to Secretary of State Denise Merrill last week, that date will also potentially add the primaries for New York and Rhode Island.

SB 89 will be added to the Presidential Primary Bills Before State Legislatures section in the left sidebar. A link to the legislation will also be added to the 2012 Presidential Primary Calendar.

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Hints of an April 24 Regional Primary from CT Secretary of State

Here's the press release from Connecticut Secretary of State, Denise Merrill:

Secretary Merrill: 2012 Presidential Primary Likely to Move to April 24th in House Vote

House Passage of HB 6532 Puts Connecticut on Path to Have Unified Presidential Primary with Pennsylvania, New York, Rhode Island

Hartford: Secretary of the State Denise Merrill today noted that unanimous House passage of House Bill No. 6532, “An Act Concerning the Presidential Preference Primary,” sets Connecticut on a path to move the date of the 2012 Presidential Primary to back to Tuesday April 24, 2012. Current state law pegs the Connecticut Presidential Preference Primary to the first Tuesday following the first Monday in February, and the last such primary took place on February 5, 2008. Since then, both the Democratic and Republican national committees have provided state parties with incentives to move their primaries to later dates to avoid the front-loading of the Presidential selection process. Both state Democratic and Republican party leadership have agreed on the date of April 24, 2012 as an acceptable date for Connecticut’s next Presidential Preference Primary, a date which may result in a regional primary with the neighboring states of Pennsylvania, New York, and Rhode Island.

“I am happy to see both parties have agreed on the April 24^th date for our Presidential Preference Primary, and I call on the State Senate to approve this measure quickly so we can begin to plan for this important election,” said Secretary Merrill, Connecticut’s chief elections officer. “Pushing the primary date back a little will allow Connecticut to have more regional clout, especially if our neighboring states also move their primaries to that day. This helps both state parties and the voters, who are already paying close attention to the critical process of choosing our President.”

House Bill No. 6532 had originally named a date of March 6, 2012 to hold the next Presidential Primary in Connecticut, a date shared by the state of Massachusetts. The date was moved further back to April 24^th due to further incentives from the national parties and in order to avoid coinciding with the Connecticut Mastery Tests taking place in schools, which could have created logistical problems as many polling places are public schools in Connecticut.

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Hmmm.

This is an interesting follow up to FHQ's discussion of the amendments added to the Connecticut bill that would move the presidential primary to April 24. It is even more interesting in the face of the impending bill in Delaware (This would force the Delaware primary even further back into the shadows in the eyes of the presidential contenders.). Let's look at this regional conglomeration a little more closely. Pennsylvania will not have to do anything. The Keystone state is already scheduled for April 24. Connecticut and Delaware are both already eying that date in actual or future legislation.

But moves in New York and Rhode Island are news to FHQ. Given the fact that New York law schedules the Empire state's presidential primary for the first Tuesday in February, it is still among the states that, under national party rules, has to change the date of its contest in order to comply with those rules. In other words, New York is a state FHQ has been observing rather closely since the first of the year. No legislation has been proposed in either chamber in the New York legislature. And it should be noted that while Democrats control the governor's mansion and the state House, Republicans hold a narrow majority in the state Senate. On the surface, then, there would be a potential partisan roadblock to a move to April. That said, mention of that roadblock should be tempered by the fact that New York Republicans -- like their counterparts in Delaware, Georgia, Ohio and Texas and add Connecticut to that list -- have traditionally allocated delegates on a winner-take-all basis. If the Republican Party of New York desires the status quo on that front, members may be more amenable to a move to late April (a month in which New York scheduled its primary for all but one cycle between 1976 and 1992).

In Rhode Island, the story is slightly different. First of all, Democrats control both chambers of the Rhode Island legislature and Republican-turned-Independent Lincoln Chafee occupies the governor's mansion. The latter would not necessarily have a clear reason to sign or veto a bill to move the presidential primary in the Ocean state. Secondly, Rhode Island Republicans do not have the motivation that the above list of states does. The party has traditionally allocated national convention delegates proportionally. The states currently first Tuesday in March position is not a problem for the party then. The state already has proportional allocation and would not have to make a change to stay in compliance with RNC rules. Finally, Rhode Island, while not on FHQ's watch list, has not seen any legislation proposed to change the presidential primary date. There are two bills -- HB 5653 and SB 399 -- that "would make changes relating to the primaries for election of delegates to national conventions and for presidential preference". But neither bill addresses the Rhode Island statute (17-12.1-1) that sets the presidential primary date. Instead, both bills make minor changes to candidate filing deadlines and other smaller details. The original Senate version has already passed and moved to the House. Both bills, then, are in committee in virtually the same form in the House and neither includes any provision to move the presidential primary. Unlike New York and its year-round legislative session, the Rhode Island legislature adjourns late next month.

Obviously, this is something that bears attention over the next few weeks. This would be a fairly significant regional primary and the attendant delegate boost on the Democratic side due to "clustering" would be rather large for already delegate-rich states like Pennsylvania and New York. It would also have the effect on the Republican side -- where all the action is going to be anyway -- of stripping out from the beginning, February/March part of the calendar a grouping of comparatively more moderate states. But FHQ will save the discussion of that impact for another, future post. Stay tuned...

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Legislation to Move Delaware Primary to April on the Horizon

Celia Cohen at Delaware Grapevine notes:

After talking it over, state party leaders for the Democrats and the Republicans mutually decided the voting should be moved to April 24.

Legislation officially shifting the primary from the first Tuesday in February to the last Tuesday in April is expected to be introduced after the General Assembly returns May 31 from a two-week recess, so it can be passed by the end of the session on June 30.

The new date would have Delaware voting at the same time as Pennsylvania.

Of course, at one point, there was discussion of Delaware aligning its primary with the then-proposed moves (to April 3) of Maryland and Washington, DC. Ms. Cohen on that point:

Here in Delaware, the Democrats were the ones to approach the Republicans about making the change. John Daniello, the Democratic state chair, suggested they set up a mini-regional primary, either by voting on April 3 with Maryland and Washington, D.C., or on April 24 with Pennsylvania.

The Republicans were inclined to listen. Not only was it consistent with their own party's thinking, but the state Senate is run by the Democrats, the state House of Representatives is run by the Democrats, and the governor is a Democrat, so the Democrats could do what they wanted, anyway.

"We found ourselves in the position of not having a lot of negotiating strength," quipped Laird Stabler, the Republican national committeeman.

Both parties preferred aligning with Pennsylvania, mainly because of the influence of Philadelphia television on candidates' advertising and appearances.

"I think it's a good fit. There is a high probability that candidates will skip over the line and come to Delaware," said Priscilla Rakestraw, the Republican national committeewoman.

Depending upon which lens through which one views this, Republicans are either acting pragmatically, yielding to the Democratic majority, or in their own self interest. More accurately, it is probably a bit of both. Republicans do not have much of a choice here, but this move -- whether it would have been to April 3 or April 24 -- is not absent any benefit for Delaware Republicans. FHQ disagrees with the Republican National committeewoman about candidates crossing state lines from Pennsylvania into Delaware. That isn't where the true gains lie.

The best test of this is the Potomac Primary in 2008; particularly looking at the candidate visits the District got relative to Maryland and Virginia.¹ Sadly, FHQ doesn't have the data for DC, but the distribution of visits between Maryland (13 visits) and Virginia (41 visits) was tilted toward the more delegate-rich Old Dominion. Another, less adequate test is to look at the contests of March 4, 2008; Texas and Ohio on one hand, and Rhode Island and Vermont on the other . The regional element is removed but the big state/small state factor remains present. Again, the visits were tilted toward the larger states. Texas (116 visits) and Ohio (70 visits) found candidates on the ground much more than in Rhode Island (6 visits) and Vermont (2 visits). Now, the argument could be made that the distribution here is roughly in line with the proportion of delegates each of those states (in both test cases) has.

Those cases aside, Delaware (2 visits) would not have to do much to double or triple its number of visits from 2008 in 2012. But as a tag-a-long with Pennsylvania, First state Republicans probably will not get the bump for which they are looking. Some bump, perhaps. Big bump, not really.

No, the true gain for Delaware Republicans is in the fact that by going along with the Democratic legislative majority's plan to move back to April 24, the state party will be able to -- like Georgia, Ohio and Texas -- maintain a winner-take-all allocation method in its delegate selection process; a method the party has traditionally used. This is an emerging trend among Republicans in various states. There is a group of states (see states that have moved to March 6) that value the influence but don't mind move to proportional allocation required of all pre-April states by the RNC and those that value winner-take-all rules over influence (see above). The latter group is gambling that the nomination race will still be competitive by the time it gets to them in April and May.

We shall see. Regardless, a move to April in Delaware is imminent.

*Thanks to Celia Cohen for sending this news along to FHQ.

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¹ The number of candidate visits is one that depends on several factors. Competition breeds more visits. The more competitive a state is, the more visits it will receive. As a means of extension, the number of parties with competitive nomination races and the number of candidates involved also must be taken into account. 2012 will only see one competitive nomination race. Also, earlier states will receive more visits relative to later states. This is a function of the fact that recent nominations have been decided early, and furthermore, a function of the intra-primary season winnowing of candidates that takes place. On that latter point, the later it is in the process, the fewer viable candidates will be involved.

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