Yesterday FHQ put reporting from the Associated Press that Democrats could vote later this week on which states will fill out the party's early state lineup for 2028 into the context of what a decision now may mean for which states are likely to make the cut.
What was missing from the AP account was just how much weight that could was carrying. Adam Sexton at WMUR in Manchester, NH shed a little more light on that:
"There is a lot of uncertainty right now over what the Democratic National Committee's Rules & Bylaws Committee will do when it potentially starts voting on the order of its presidential nominating calendar later this week."'It could be this week, could be the next couple of weeks,' said Ray Buckley, chairman of the New Hampshire Democratic Party. 'It could be in the next couple months. That's really up to the committee to decide.'"
Buckley is not only chairman of the New Hampshire Democratic Party but a member of the Rules and Bylaws Committee as well. FHQ would not say that the chairman is throwing cold water on the notion of a vote this week to determine which states might get waivers from the party to hold early contests in 2028 and when those contests will be. However, Buckley is not saying that things are full steam ahead on that front either.
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Noteworthy: So what? What does it matter if there is a vote on the calendar rules now, in two weeks or two months?
Well, again, a vote now, as FHQ argued in yesterday's post, takes a number of options off the table. The states, among those 12 that applied for early status with the DNC, may not be limited all that much by a decision now, but where those pieces could be moved around in the early window of the primary calendar would be greatly constrained. And only time, not to mention the certainty of the midterm results, can resolve that.
In a nutshell, that is what the members of the Rules and Bylaws Committee are wrestling with: Decide now and move on or wait and use the information from the midterms to better tailor an early calendar order. Clearly the latter would represent in many respects a repeat of the party's process for the 2024 calendar. And while it has been a while, it has been reported that DNC Chair Frank Martin seems to be pushing for an earlier decision. As Politico put it in a piece nearly a year ago:
One DNC member, granted anonymity to discuss the issue candidly, said DNC Chair Ken Martin told them he wanted the primary calendar to be sorted out quickly, potentially as soon as the end of 2025 or early 2026, and has urged rules members to expect related meetings throughout this fall.
No, a decision on the calendar did not come in 2025 or early 2026, but that does indicate some pressure from the chair for a decision earlier rather than later. That may factor into the timeline for a calendar decision.
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