Monday, October 5, 2009

State of the Race: Virginia Governor (10/5/09)

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One week further down the gubernatorial campaign trail in the Old Dominion and the picture looks the same. least from Survey USA. The polling firm continues to show a double digit lead for Bob McDonnell. However, this is the closest the race has been in the series of polls Survey USA has done in the Virginia gubernatorial race since the two polls immediately prior to the June 9 Democratic primary (leads of one point and four points for McDonnell, respectively). But minimally closing the gap yet remaining over ten points back is a small consolation to the Deeds campaign as the contest enters the final four weeks. FHQ is still of a mind that these polls are on the McDonnell-heavy side. The likely voter model Survey USA has been using has yielded more Republicans than Democrats -- as has Rasmussen -- yet Rasmussen has found a tighter race. Well, slightly tighter anyway.

2009 Virginia Gubernatorial Race Polling
Margin of Error
Survey USA
Oct. 2-4, 2009
+/- 4%
608 likely voters

Now, FHQ is not saying that this race is closer it appears; Survey USA just appears to be an outlier. Does that put McDonnell in the driver's seat? This poll certainly isn't hurting the Republican's averages here. He's topped the 50% mark for the first time since the early September Survey USA poll pushed him beyond that point. But that was quickly followed by the seemingly thesis-triggered contraction of the margin between the two major party candidates. For Deeds that September surprise may have come a month too early.

There's still might be time enough for a comeback, but as Tom Jensen at Public Policy Polling tweeted today:
"Very few minds are being changed in Virginia. Deeds will need remarkable Dem turnout:"
I think that sums it up.

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