Monday, October 12, 2009

State of the Race: Virginia Governor (10/12/09)

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It's too bad Public Policy Polling conducted a poll in New Jersey over the weekend. I'm sure those results will be interesting (They are bound to find their way onto FHQ somehow.), but PPP was the last polling outfit to show the Virginia race any closer than eight points -- where the new Mason Dixon poll finds the contest between Bob McDonnell and Creigh Deeds in the Old Dominion. It would be nice to see the before and after because most of the other polling firms weighing in since have shown a widening gap between the two major party candidates in Virginia.

2009 Virginia Gubernatorial Race Polling
Margin of Error
Mason Dixon
Oct. 6-8, 2009
+/- 4%
625 likely voters

FHQ doesn't have any problem with the 8-9 point spreads; that's around where we have the race pegged at this point. It just feels like a 52-45 or 53-44 sort of win for McDonnell at this point. [And yes, that feeling is filtered through the polling data we have at the moment. It isn't a totally subjective ruling.] And with three weeks left, Deeds has to find a way to shift the narrative in a way that will help him. Again, the thesis narrative seems to have run its course. The media has moved on. The onus, then, is on the Democrat to alter the race in some way, shape or form. That may start with tonight's debate in Richmond, but even then, Deeds will have to overcome quiet a deficit and the difficult balance between local forces and national factors that have stoked Republican enthusiasm in the state.

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Robert said...

I was on the CNN Political ticker today reading a story about Romney endorsing Toomey today. Under a picture of Toomey they have the caption "Toomey has not always had a warm relationship with Toomey." Either it is a mistake that will soon be corrected or Pat has a split personality disorder. The link is

Josh Putnam said...

Darn! Missed it! That would have been a nice screen grab to have.

Robert said...

If you read the comments of the link, you'll see that two of us picked it up.