Thursday, July 2, 2020

The Electoral College Map (7/2/20)

Update for July 2.



Changes (July 2)
StateBeforeAfter
Montana
Lean Trump
Strong Trump
A handful of polls did not quite make it in under the wire before yesterday's update was posted. But those polls from out of Arizona, Michigan and Montana have now been incorporated and made some difference in sparsely surveyed Montana. The Treasure state has now shifted from Lean Trump into Strong Trump territory. And while that bolsters the Strong total of electoral votes for Trump, it further thins out the Lean category on the Trump side of the ledger.

But then again, it has been fairly remarkable throughout the two weeks plus of these updates just how condensed the Lean categories on both sides of the partisan line on the Electoral College Spectrum below. The strong categories on both side represent the largest total, then there are just a handful of Lean states bookended by another significant cache of electoral votes in the Toss Up area. That means there are certainly places to play offense or defense, but that action is happening in mostly in Toss Up rather than into Lean states.

Polling Quick Hits:
Arizona:
Gravis Marketing conducted a poll for One American News Network in Arizona and the results are comparable to those from the survey the firm had out in the field in North Carolina for OANN recently. As with that poll of the Tar Heel state, this one in Arizona looks more like an outlier than not. It is not that Trump cannot hold the lead in Arizona, but rather that he has not approached the 49 percent share he had in this Gravis poll since a February survey by Fabrizio, Lee and Associates had the president at 50 percent. Other than that poll, Trump has just not been all that near the upper 40s in Arizona. And that is the main difference in this poll because Biden's share, while a little lower than some recent polling in Arizona, is at least within the range of support the former vice president has received there. Still, despite the Trump advantage in the survey, the Grand Canyon state remains firmly rooted in Biden Toss Up territory.


Michigan:
That Change Research survey of Michigan from yesterday may have been the only battleground state poll in the wave that had Biden below 50 percent support, but the latest Public Policy Polling survey of the Wolverine state had him right at the majority mark. Michigan, very simply, continues to be the one blue wall flip from 2016 that has been consistently in Biden's favor in 2016. To be sure, the others -- Pennsylvania and Wisconsin -- are on the Biden side of the partisan line, but the margins there have tended to be less favorable to Biden than in Michigan. This poll from PPP did little to change that.


Montana:
Meanwhile, as mentioned above, Montana pushed in the opposite direction that a lot of polling over the last few weeks. That is to say, on the weight of another wide margin in a University of Montana survey, moved the average more toward Trump than it has been the case for other states' averages. However, Trump's share of support did decay since UM was in the field last in February while Biden gained the four points that the president lost. Nevertheless, Montana does not appear to be a pick up opportunity for the former vice president (even if there have only been three total polls of Montana in 2020).


Texas:
Finally, results from a couple of polls out of Texas depicted a race that is very much competitive. On the one hand, Public Policy Polling had Biden ahead by a couple of points, but on the other, YouGov found Trump up four. Average those two and one gets a race that favors Trump by a point. The FHQ graduated weighted average for Texas right now? Trump +1.54. While PPP had Biden toward the upper end of his range in Texas polling, YouGov had Trump near his. The bottom line remains that Texas is competitive. And if Texas is competitive, then, given a hypothetical uniform swing from 2016, there are quite a few states that have built a projected cushion for Biden in the electoral vote tally. At this point, Trump needs Texas a whole lot more than Biden does.


NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2020 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.


The Electoral College Spectrum1
MA-112
(14)
CT-7
(173)
NE CD2-1
PA-203
(269/289)
MO-10
(125)
TN-11
(56)
HI-4
(18)
OR-7
(180)
NH-43
(273/269)
AK-3
(115)
NE-2
(45)
CA-55
(73)
DE-3
(183)
FL-29
(302/265)
SC-9
(112)
AL-9
(43)
VT-3
(76)
CO-9
(192)
NV-6
(308/236)
UT-6
(103)
ID-4
(34)
NY-29
(105)
NM-5
(197)
AZ-11
(319/230)
MS-6
(97)
KY-8
(30)
MD-10
(115)
MN-10
(207)
NC-15
(334/219)
IN-11
(91)
ND-3
(22)
IL-20
(135)
VA-13
(220)
OH-18
(352/204)
AR-6
(80)
SD-3
(19)
WA-12
(147)
ME-2
(222)
GA-16
(368/186)
KS-6
(74)
OK-7
(16)
RI-4
ME CD1-1
(152)
MI-16
(238)
TX-38
(170)
LA-8
NE CD1-1
(68)
WV-5
(9)
NJ-14
(166)
WI-10
(248)
IA-6
ME CD2-1
(132)
MT-3
(59)
WY-3
NE CD3-1
(4)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states up to the Keystone state), he would have 289 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics.


To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College.

3 New Hampshire
 is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state for the former vice president. But because the line between New Hampshire and Pennsylvania creates an Electoral College tie (269-269), Pennsylvania is the tipping point state for Trump. It is where the president surpasses 270 electoral votes. Collectively, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania are the tipping point states.

The new survey of Montana shifted the Treasure state seven cells deeper into Trump's coalition of states on the Electoral College Spectrum. That may seem like a significant shift but it happened within a group of states -- the lean states to the bottom of the column where Montana now resides -- that are all within five points of each other. That is a pretty tight range. The other three states held the line, sticking in their same spots from a day ago on the Spectrum.

New Hampshire and Pennsylvania continued to hold down the tipping point in the quest for 270 electoral votes.

Montana's move did not place it on the Watch List below, but it had the effect of pushing Louisiana and Nebraska CD1 off the list. The latter two jurisdictions have not been surveyed to this point in 2020 and are tethered to states that finished around them in (and their movement since) 2016. Montana was one of those states near each four years ago, so the new poll there increased the margins in Louisiana and Nebraska CD1. But all of that is happening in territory that is safely in Trump's column, not anywhere close to the states most likely up for grabs in November.


--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State
Switch
Florida
from Toss Up Biden
to Lean Biden
Georgia
from Toss Up Biden
to Toss Up Trump
Maine
from Lean Biden
to Strong Biden
Mississippi
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Nebraska CD2
from Toss Up Biden
to Lean Biden
New Hampshire
from Toss Up Biden
to Lean Biden
Ohio
from Toss Up Biden
to Toss Up Trump
Pennsylvania
from Toss Up Biden
to Lean Biden
South Carolina
from Lean Trump
to Strong Trump
Utah
from Lean Trump
to Strong Trump
Virginia
from Strong Biden
to Lean Biden
Wisconsin
from Lean Biden
to Toss Up Biden
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was  too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.


--
Related posts:
The Electoral College Map (7/1/20)

The Electoral College Map (6/30/20)

The Electoral College Map (6/29/20)


Follow FHQ on TwitterInstagram and Facebook or subscribe by Email.

Wednesday, July 1, 2020

The Electoral College Map (7/1/20)

Update for July 1.



July opened with another wave of battleground polling by Change Research and another couple of surveys out of Arizona and Colorado. While the margins may have varied across the seven states represented, one thing was true across all of them: Biden was in the lead. And that has been how June has gone in this race between President Trump and former Vice President Biden. As the month progressed, the average margins in the states that matter most in the quest for 270 electoral votes edged upward in Biden's favor.

Polling Quick Hits:
Arizona:
Data Orbital released the results of its first survey of the Grand Canyon state during 2020. And the polling outfit showed a much tighter race than most of the recent polling in the state. While Biden pulled in 47 percent support -- right around his current FHQ average share in the state -- Trump overperformed his average by a couple of points. But that is certainly within range of the margin of error. Yet, June polling has been much more Biden-favorable on the whole. Of the seven surveys that were in the field at least partially in June, only two (including this Data Orbital poll) had the race below Biden +4.


Colorado:
FHQ mentioned this in the first projection post two weeks ago, but if anyone had said in 2008 that Colorado would be anything other than a toss up state, then I would not have believed you. But here it is, three cycles later and the Centennial state looks to be far out of reach for Trump in the fall. It is firmly lodged in the Strong Biden category and the latest Public Policy Polling survey of the state did nothing to dissuade anyone of that conclusion. But for the first 2020 poll of the state back in February, Biden has been above 50 percent there all the way. Trump, on the other hand, finds himself closer to 40 percent. And the average margin in that once battleground state sits at just above 15 points in Biden's direction. The order of states is, on the whole, stable from election to election, but there can be movement and Colorado is a good example of that. Once often in the middle column on the Electoral College Spectrum below, Colorado is now deep into what is typically the middle ground of Democratic states.


Change Research (Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin):
There is not a whole lot to say about this latest wave of battleground surveys from Change Research other than this certainly is not the same results as were pulled out of six states in the last wave in mid-June. This round found Biden north of 50 percent in five of the six states. And the only state where Biden was not above the majority threshold was Michigan, the battleground (or perhaps red 2016) state where Biden has most consistently been above 50 percent. Thirteen times out of 36 surveys conducted in the Wolverine state in 2020, Biden has been over 50 percent. That is nearly twice the number of surveys in which the former vice presidential was beyond that mark in the next closest state, Wisconsin. And that was more than twice as much as the number of times Biden held more than half of the support in polls in remaining four states.


NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2020 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.


The Electoral College Spectrum1
MA-112
(14)
CT-7
(173)
NE CD2-1
PA-203
(269/289)
MO-10
(125)
NE-2
(56)
HI-4
(18)
OR-7
(180)
NH-43
(273/269)
AK-3
(115)
TN-11
(54)
CA-55
(73)
DE-3
(183)
FL-29
(302/265)
MT-3
(112)
AL-9
(43)
VT-3
(76)
CO-9
(192)
NV-6
(308/236)
SC-9
(109)
ID-4
(34)
NY-29
(105)
NM-5
(197)
AZ-11
(319/230)
UT-6
(100)
KY-8
(30)
MD-10
(115)
MN-10
(207)
NC-15
(334/219)
LA-8
NE CD1-1
(94)
ND-3
(22)
IL-20
(135)
VA-13
(220)
OH-18
(352/204)
MS-6
(85)
SD-3
(19)
WA-12
(147)
ME-2
(222)
GA-16
(368/186)
IN-11
(79)
OK-7
(16)
RI-4
ME CD1-1
(152)
MI-16
(238)
TX-38
(170)
KS-6
(68)
WV-5
(9)
NJ-14
(166)
WI-10
(248)
IA-6
ME CD2-1
(132)
AR-6
(62)
WY-3
NE CD3-1
(4)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states up to the Keystone state), he would have 289 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics.


To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College.

3 New Hampshire
 is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state for the former vice president. But because the line between New Hampshire and Pennsylvania creates an Electoral College tie (269-269), Pennsylvania is the tipping point state for Trump. It is where the president surpasses 270 electoral votes. Collectively, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania are the tipping point states.

Yes, there was a new wave of battleground polling, but it did little to change anything on the map, much less the Spectrum above or the Watch List below. Every state kept its same position on each as the calendar turned from June to July. [Only Maine rejoined the List, but not because of a poll of the Pine Tree state. Rather, with just one poll, Maine is tethered to other states that finished around it in 2016. There were enough changes in the states with polls today to shift Maine back onto the List.] Despite that polling, there were no changes, and that had much to do with how little variation there was in the margins across states in the Change Research surveys.

As it stands, July opens with New Hampshire and Pennsylvania as the tipping point states with the chance of an electoral college tie still on the table and Biden with a significant cushion beyond them among the toss up states on the Spectrum. And that cushion grew over June. But as a new month dawns, it remains to be seen whether that trajectory will continue or begin in any way to reverse course as the conventions approach next month.


--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State
Switch
Florida
from Toss Up Biden
to Lean Biden
Georgia
from Toss Up Biden
to Toss Up Trump
Louisiana
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Maine
from Lean Biden
to Strong Biden
Mississippi
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Nebraska CD1
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Nebraska CD2
from Toss Up Biden
to Lean Biden
New Hampshire
from Toss Up Biden
to Lean Biden
Ohio
from Toss Up Biden
to Toss Up Trump
Pennsylvania
from Toss Up Biden
to Lean Biden
South Carolina
from Lean Trump
to Strong Trump
Utah
from Lean Trump
to Strong Trump
Virginia
from Strong Biden
to Lean Biden
Wisconsin
from Lean Biden
to Toss Up Biden
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was  too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.


--
Related posts:
The Electoral College Map (6/30/20)

The Electoral College Map (6/29/20)

The Electoral College Map (6/26/20)

Follow FHQ on TwitterInstagram and Facebook or subscribe by Email.

Tuesday, June 30, 2020

The Electoral College Map (6/30/20)

Changes across the month of June. Update below.




Update for June 30.


Changes (June 30)
StateBeforeAfter
MissouriLean TrumpToss Up Trump

Another couple of polls were released on Tuesday, 18 weeks ahead of Election Day. One was more disruptive, if one can call it that, than the other. But new polling data is new polling data. And there were some changes to the map on the last day of June.

Polling Quick Hits:
Missouri:
First of all, out in the Show-Me state, Garin-Hart-Yang found not only a close presidential race, but a slight Joe Biden lead in a state that President Trump carried by 18 points in 2016. Now, if Missouri were to follow the national and state-level polling trajectory over the last couple of months, then a contraction of some sort could be expected. In fact, even before this poll, Biden was already enough above Hillary Clinton's share of support in 2016 in 2020 Missouri polling that he was in line with the Democrats' average share in the state over the last three presidential election cycles. And Trump was underperforming his Missouri showing by about seven points as well. And that had brought his advantage down to a bit more than six points in the FHQ graduated weighted average there.

But that was before this poll. And before this poll, there had been a handful of surveys conducted in Missouri but only a couple since February. That meant that the early polls were carrying a weight in the average that had decayed quite a bit and were overwhelmed a bit by a fully weighted new poll with Biden ahead. Translation: Missouri jumped from a relatively comfortable Lean Trump state to a state in Trump toss up turf. But this poll, as FHQ explained earlier in a Twitter thread, is an outlier. The swing in this poll from 2016 to 2020 is almost twice what the average swing has been across all states.

It is not that Missouri cannot be closer than it was in 2016, but this poll paints a picture that is a bit tighter than the rest of the polling out there might otherwise depict. That said, if Missouri is within six points -- even with Trump in the lead -- that means that a lot of other states are running much closer than they were in 2016 and are likely a bit bluer than they were four years ago.

And that is pretty much what the map above and Electoral College Spectrum below have consistently shown since FHQ began updating these projections two weeks ago.


New York:
Siena has done most of the survey work in the Empire state in 2020 and the university-based polling outfit added another poll today. There is not much to say about this one. Last month Biden led 57-32 and one month later, the former vice president led 57-32. Like the Pennsylvania poll a day ago, this one was right around the preexisting average here at FHQ. So this one was a confirming poll more than anything else. Biden is in no danger in New York and the new Siena poll did not break with that likely conclusion.


NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2020 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.


The Electoral College Spectrum1
MA-112
(14)
CT-7
(173)
NE CD2-1
PA-203
(269/289)
MO-10
(125)
NE-2
(56)
HI-4
(18)
OR-7
(180)
NH-43
(273/269)
AK-3
(115)
TN-11
(54)
CA-55
(73)
DE-3
(183)
FL-29
(302/265)
MT-3
(112)
AL-9
(43)
VT-3
(76)
CO-9
(192)
NV-6
(308/236)
SC-9
(109)
ID-4
(34)
NY-29
(105)
NM-5
(197)
AZ-11
(319/230)
UT-6
(100)
KY-8
(30)
MD-10
(115)
MN-10
(207)
NC-15
(334/219)
LA-8
NE CD1-1
(94)
ND-3
(22)
IL-20
(135)
VA-13
(220)
OH-18
(352/204)
MS-6
(85)
SD-3
(19)
WA-12
(147)
ME-2
(222)
GA-16
(368/186)
IN-11
(79)
OK-7
(16)
RI-4
ME CD1-1
(152)
MI-16
(238)
TX-38
(170)
KS-6
(68)
WV-5
(9)
NJ-14
(166)
WI-10
(248)
IA-6
ME CD2-1
(132)
AR-6
(62)
WY-3
NE CD3-1
(4)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states up to the Keystone state), he would have 289 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics.


To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College.

3 New Hampshire
 is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state for the former vice president. But because the line between New Hampshire and Pennsylvania creates an Electoral College tie (269-269), Pennsylvania is the tipping point state for Trump. It is where the president surpasses 270 electoral votes. Collectively, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania are the tipping point states.

While Missouri's shade may have lightened on both the map and the Spectrum, it did not budge on the Spectrum, retaining its space in the order. The average margin there for Trump may have shrunk some, but it remains a distant takeover opportunity for Biden if it can really be considered one at all. But it is noteworthy that the Trump toss ups have now extended into the fourth column on the figure.

New York obviously did not go anywhere. It, too, stayed in place with the new poll basically affirming the extant state of the race there.

With no new polls in either New Hampshire or Pennsylvania, not to mention those states immediately around them, the tipping point states remained the same as June came to a close. Meanwhile, the Watch List was also unchanged from a day ago. The same group of states near the break points in the various categories were stuck in neutral.


--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State
Switch
Florida
from Toss Up Biden
to Lean Biden
Georgia
from Toss Up Biden
to Toss Up Trump
Louisiana
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Mississippi
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Nebraska CD1
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Nebraska CD2
from Toss Up Biden
to Lean Biden
New Hampshire
from Toss Up Biden
to Lean Biden
Ohio
from Toss Up Biden
to Toss Up Trump
Pennsylvania
from Toss Up Biden
to Lean Biden
South Carolina
from Lean Trump
to Strong Trump
Utah
from Lean Trump
to Strong Trump
Virginia
from Strong Biden
to Lean Biden
Wisconsin
from Lean Biden
to Toss Up Biden
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll the thad Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was  too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.


--
Related posts:
The Electoral College Map (6/29/20)

The Electoral College Map (6/26/20)

The Electoral College Map (6/25/20)



Follow FHQ on TwitterInstagram and Facebook or subscribe by Email.