Tuesday, March 1, 2011

The 2012 Presidential Primary Calendar (3/1/11)

FHQ does not want to get in the habit of flooding the market with a million iterations of the 2012 presidential primary calendar, but given the shake up in Minnesota, we will use the excuse to make that change -- on the calendar and map -- and add in links to the newly introduced bills in Alabama and Missouri. For the record, due to an oversight, the Minnesota caucuses were incorrectly slotted into the March 6 position on the calendar in previous versions of the primary calendar. As the state parties in the Land of 10,000 Lakes did not coordinate a date on which to hold next year's caucuses and notify the secretary of state by today, a February 7 date for the caucuses was triggered. For reasons explained in the "shake up" link above, that non-compliant date is not likely to cause too much trouble in view of the parties's delegates selection rules. The state parties still pick up the tab for the caucuses and can move them where and when they want.

The states that bear watching are the states in February below and have yet to introduce legislation to move their contests to later and compliant dates.

[Click to Enlarge]

Reading the Map:
As was the case with the maps from past cycles, the earlier a contest is scheduled in 2012, the darker the color in which the state is shaded. Florida, for instance, is a much deeper shade of blue in January than South Dakota is in June. There are, however, some differences between the earlier maps and the one that appears above.
  1. Several caucus states have yet to select a date for the first step of their delegate selection processes in 2012. Until a decision is made by state parties in those states, they will appear in gray on the map.
  2. The states where legislation to move the presidential primary is active are two-toned. One color indicates the timing of the primary according to the current law whereas the second color is meant to highlight the most likely month to which the primary could be moved. [With the exception of Texas, the proposed movement is backward.] This is clear in most states, but in others -- Maryland and Tennessee -- where multiple timing options are being considered, the most likely date is used. Here that is defined as a bill -- or date change -- with the most institutional support. In both cases, the majority party leadership is sponsoring one change over another (February to March in Tennessee and February to April in Maryland). That option is given more weight on the map.
  3. Finally, Kentucky is unique because the legislation there calls for shifting the primary from May to August. As August is not included in the color coding, white designates that potential move with the May shade of blue.

Reading the Calendar:
  1. Caucus states are italicized while primary states are not. Several caucus states are missing from the list because they have not formalized the date on which their contests will be held in 2012. Colorado appears because the caucuses dates there are set by the state, whereas a state like Alaska has caucuses run by the state parties and as such do not have their dates codified in state law.
  2. States that have changed dates appear twice (or more) on the calendar; once by the old date and once by the new date. The old date will be struck through while the new date will be color-coded with the amount of movement (in days) in parentheses. States in green are states that have moved to earlier dates on the calendar and states in red are those that have moved to later dates. Arkansas, for example, has moved its 2012 primary and moved it back 104 days from its 2008 position.
  3. The date of any primary or caucus moves that have taken place -- whether through gubernatorial signature or state party move -- also appear in parentheses following the state's/party's new entry on the calendar.
  4. States with active legislation have links to those bills included with their entries on the calendar. If there are multiple bills they are divided by chamber and/or numbered accordingly.
  5. Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina appear twice. The earlier entry corresponds with the latest possible date these states would have if Florida opts not to move their primary into compliance with the national party rules. The second, later entry for each of the non-exempt states reflects the position the national parties would prefer the earliest states to hold their delegate selection events.

2012 Presidential Primary Calendar

January 2012
Monday, January 16:
Iowa caucuses1

Tuesday, January 24
New Hampshire1

Saturday, January 28:
Nevada caucuses
South Carolina1

Florida (bills: House/Senate)

February 2012
Monday, February 6:
Iowa caucuses (based on national party rules)

Tuesday, February 7
(Super Tuesday):
Alabama (bills: House)
California (bills: Assembly)
Minnesota caucuses
Missouri (bills: House 1, 2/Senate)
Montana Republican caucuses
New Jersey (bills: Assembly 1, 2/Senate)
New York
Oklahoma (bills: House 1, 2/Senate -- see sidebar for link to track bills)
Tennessee (bills: House 1, 2, 3/Senate 1, 2, 3)

Saturday, February 11:

Tuesday, February 14:
Maryland (bills: House/Senate 1, 2)
New Hampshire (based on national party rules)
Virginia (bills: House 1, 2/Senate)
Washington, DC (bills: Council)

Saturday, February 18:
Nevada Republican caucuses (-28) (moved: 12/16/10)
Nevada Democratic caucuses2 (-28)

Tuesday, February 21:
Hawaii Republican caucuses (+87) (moved: 5/16/09)

Tuesday, February 28:
South Carolina (based on national party rules)

March 2012
Tuesday, March 6:
Massachusetts4 (bills: House)
Rhode Island
Texas (bills: House)

Tuesday, March 13:

Tuesday, March 20:
Colorado caucuses5
Illinois (-42) (bills: Senate) (signed: 3/17/10)

April 2012
Tuesday, April 3:
Kansas (bills: House/Senate -- cancel primary)

Tuesday, April 24

May 2012
Tuesday, May 8:
North Carolina
West Virginia

Tuesday, May 15:
Idaho (+7) (bills: House) (signed: 2/23/11)

Tuesday, May 22:
Arkansas (-104) (bills: House) (signed: 2/4/09)
Kentucky (bills: House)
Washington (bills: House 1, 2/Senate -- cancel primary)

June 2012
Tuesday, June 5:
Montana (GOP -119) (moved: 6/18/10)
New Mexico6
South Dakota

1 New Hampshire law calls for the Granite state to hold a primary on the second Tuesday of March or seven days prior to any other similar election, whichever is earlier. Florida is first now, so New Hampshire would be a week earlier at the latest. Traditionally, Iowa has gone on the Monday a week prior to New Hampshire. For the time being we'll wedge South Carolina in on the Saturday between New Hampshire and Florida, but these are just guesses at the moment. Any rogue states could cause a shift.

2 The Nevada Democratic caucuses date is based on both DNC rules and the state party's draft delegate selection plan as of February 25, 2011.

3 In Arizona the governor can use his or her proclamation powers to move the state's primary to a date on which the event would have an impact on the nomination. In 2004 and 2008 the primary was moved to the first Tuesday in February.

4 Massachusetts and Michigan are the only states that passed a frontloading bill prior to 2008 that was not permanent. The Bay state reverts to its first Tuesday in March date in 2012 while Michigan will fall back to the fourth Tuesday in February.

5 The Colorado Democratic and Republican parties have the option to move their caucuses from the third Tuesday in March to the first Tuesday in February.

6 The law in New Mexico allows the parties to decide when to hold their nominating contests. The Democrats have gone in early February in the last two cycles, but the GOP has held steady in June. They have the option of moving however.

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