Tuesday, November 3, 2009

State of the Race: Virginia Governor (11/3/09) -- Final

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FHQ is of the opinion that it did a better job putting the wraps on this race in our Sunday night update. Nothing in the two polls released on Monday in the Virginia gubernatorial race did anything to disrupt the conventional wisdom that Virginia will continue its streak of electing governors from the party not represented in the White House. If anything, both the PPP and Survey USA survey's provided additional proof that today's vote would be an overwhelming victory for Republican Bob McDonnell. More than anything, though, with the final polls in, we can assess the situation and, in this race at least, go out on a limb and make a prediction. That the state of Virginia in the graphic above is now completely red should be indicative enough of the fact that the evidence is pointing toward a McDonnell victory tonight. But now it is official.

2009 Virginia Gubernatorial Race Polling
Margin of Error
Public Policy Polling [pdf]
Oct. 31-Nov. 1, 2009
+/- 2.6%
1457 likely voters
Survey USA
Oct. 30-Nov. 1, 2009
+/- 4.1%
502 likely voters

Early on, the exit polls are showing the turnout is lower than expected in some Republican areas. The Democrats are touting those numbers, but it will take an awful lot of that to get Deeds anywhere close to winning this race. And lest everyone --Democrats specifically -- forget, the early 2004 presidential exit polls indicated that the United States would have a new president, President Kerry. Alas, it didn't quite turn out that way, if memory serves. As Markos Moulitsas just tweeted, "WTF, there are exit polls today? Big question -- which side will get punk'd by them?" Indeed. It would not be wise of Deeds supporters to put too much stock into them; not these early ones at least.

Prediction: McDonnell wins.
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Recent Posts:
Final Virginia Update coming between 2 & 3 this afternoon.

Election Day 2009: What's on Tap? -- A Viewing Guide

State of the Race: New Jersey Governor (11/2/09)


Robert said...

Are you predicting the New Jersey race or NY-23?

Josh Putnam said...

I was going to sit down on Saturday night with the numbers from NY-23 and give them the ol' graduated weighted average treatment (with the caveat that it has done horribly with so little data in the past -- see GA-Sen runoff '08), but Scozzafava's drop out and next day surprise endorsement put a wrench in that plan.

There's just too much uncertainty in that race.

But in New Jersey, it's close with a fair amount of data. I'm still looking some things over, but will probably make an editorial decision soon on a prediction.