Tuesday, October 23, 2012

The Electoral College Map (10/23/12)

On a day when there was seemingly more interest in the national polls that were released, there were slim pickings on the state level. Actually, come to think of it, it may have been that there wasn't exactly a who's who of toss up states represented in the scant few state polls released on Tuesday. Much of that had to do with the Monday night debate. Most firms with the exception of ARG were in and out of the field prior to Monday, setting baselines before the foreign policy debate from Boca Raton.

ARG, however, had a couple of toss up state surveys in the field in Nevada and New Hampshire that spanned the weekend and into debate day on Monday. Outside of those two surveys, we got some confirming data from North Dakota and some recalibrating data from Connecticut and Minnesota.

New State Polls (10/23/12)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Obama
Romney
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Connecticut
10/19-10/21
+/- 4.2%
575 likely voters
53
40
4
+13
+11.70
Connecticut
10/21
+/- 4.5%
500 likely voters
52
45
2
+7
--
Minnesota
10/21
+/- 4.5%
500 likely voters
51
46
1
+5
+8.35
Nevada
10/19-10/22
+/- 4.0%
600 likely voters
49
47
3
+2
+4.16
New Hampshire
10/19-10/22
+/- 4.0%
600 likely voters
47
49
3
+2
+3.51
North Dakota
10/12-10/15
+/- 4.4%
500 likely voters
32
57
--
+25
+16.37
North Dakota
10/17-10/18
+/- 4.0%
600 likely voters
40
54
4
+14
--

Polling Quick Hits:
Connecticut:
The Survey USA poll of the Nutmeg state was the firm's first venture into the state this year. The results were not inconsistent with what we have seen from other pollsters. Connecticut is a blue state that has provided the president with a lead in the low teens throughout much of 2012. One of the exceptions to that rule has been Rasmussen and poll-over-poll, this latest survey was a near replica of the one conducted just after the Denver debate. Romney held steady with a share of support higher than in most other polls of the state and Obama gained a point. There really isn't that much to see here.

Minnesota:
Now, in Minnesota that may be a different story. The Obama +5 margin is as tight as any independent poll that has been in the field in the Land of 10,000 Lakes this year. But it stands to reason that Minnesota would draw closer in a way similar to what we have witnessed in the other Lean Obama states of late. The problem from the Romney perspective, as is the case in the other states in its category, is that Obama has consistently been over 50% there and the governor is lagging pretty far behind. The issue on the president's side is that the low end of the range of polling margins in the state may be just five points. Again, it is reasonable to conclude that Minnesota has narrowed some, but this one is perhaps a sign of other similar data to come, but an outlier until that end of the range is confirmed elsewhere.

Nevada:
ARG last surveyed the Silver state back before the first debate and found the president up by seven points. That has been whittled down to two in the latest ARG poll in the state. Obama is down a couple of points since then and Romney is up three. This one really is quite consistent with the polling conducted since the first debate in Nevada. It is right on in terms of the president's share of support compared to both the FHQ weighted average and the raw average of post-debate data. The Romney number, however, runs a little ahead of both of those metrics.

New Hampshire:
The ARG picture in the Granite state is slightly different than in Nevada. First, Romney is in the lead for the second consecutive poll from the firm. But secondly, that edge has contracted since the last survey. Obama gained a point at Romney's expense, cutting a four point lead a week after the first debate in half now. Of course, that is mostly just statistical noise, but ARG is showing a wider Romney advantage in the state where most other pollsters are not. For the most part, the polling in New Hampshire since October 3 has shown a race that is either tied or a one point lead for either candidate.

North Dakota:
Ah, North Dakota. There just hasn't been that much out of the Peace Garden state in the way of polling this year, but the data that has emerged has been clear in showing Mitt Romney in the mid-50s and Obama well back in the upper 30s. If you take the two releases from today and average them, well, that's what you get: Romney in the mid-50s and Obama in the upper 30s. It's a red state, folks.


FHQ will spare you here. Importantly, the new information in Nevada and New Hampshire did little to uproot them from their current positions either on the periphery of or within the Toss Up Obama category. Of the rest, none obviously switched categories since the map is the same as it was yesterday and has been now for several days. On the Spectrum, only North Dakota moved, jumping into the far right column deep within the Strong Romney group of states.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
VT-3
(6)2
WA-12
(158)
NH-4
(257)
MT-3
(159)
ND-3
(55)
HI-4
(10)
NJ-14
(172)
OH-183
(275/281)
GA-16
(156)
KY-8
(52)
RI-4
(14)
CT-7
(179)
IA-6
(281/263)
SD-3
(140)
AL-9
(44)
NY-29
(43)
NM-5
(184)
VA-13
(294/257)
IN-11
(137)
KS-6
(35)
MD-10
(53)
MN-10
(194)
CO-9
(303/244)
SC-9
(126)
AR-6
(29)
IL-20
(73)
OR-7
(201)
FL-29
(332/235)
NE-5
(117)
AK-3
(23)
MA-11
(84)
PA-20
(221)
NC-15
(206)
TX-38
(112)
OK-7
(20)
CA-55
(139)
MI-16
(237)
AZ-11
(191)
WV-5
(74)
ID-4
(13)
DE-3
(142)
WI-10
(247)
MO-10
(180)
LA-8
(69)
WY-3
(9)
ME-4
(146)
NV-6
(253)
TN-11
(170)
MS-6
(61)
UT-6
(6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 281 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics.

3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

The Watch List? Well, Minnesota, Nevada and New Hampshire all had new polls released, but none of them affected the states' previous Watch List distinctions. It was a light polling day and thus a status quo sort of day in terms of the averages and where they have the states currently positioned in the rank ordering.

The Watch List1
State
Switch
Florida
from Toss Up Obama
to Toss Up Romney
Georgia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Minnesota
from Lean Obama
to Strong Obama
Montana
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Nevada
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
New Hampshire
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
Ohio
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
Wisconsin
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
1 The Watch list shows those states in the FHQ Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. The List is not a trend analysis. It indicates which states are straddling the line between categories and which states are most likely to shift given the introduction of new polling data. Montana, for example, is close to being a Lean Romney state, but the trajectory of the polling there has been moving the state away from that lean distinction.

Please see:
Posted by Josh Putnam at 11:00 PM 1 comments
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If Virginia is tied, Obama wins1

Despite the fact that the FHQ weighted average formula does not reflect it, I am sympathetic to the notion of the state of Virginia being if not tied, then very close to it at the moment. As FHQ has mentioned over the last several days the polling in the Old Dominion has been back and forth in the time since the first debate in Denver.

But if we are talking electoral strategies, Virginia being the closest state on November 6 translates into an Obama reelection considering the order of states that has been established based not only on historical precedent but also via state level polling throughout 2012. If the partisan line -- the line separating both candidates' shares of states -- is drawn on the Obama side of Virginia (see the Electoral College Spectrum below), then that is enough to get Governor Romney to 257 electoral votes, but pushes Iowa, Ohio and New Hampshire into the president's column and additionally hands him victory with 281 electoral votes.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
VT-3
(6)2
WA-12
(158)
NH-4
(257)
MT-3
(159)
MS-6
(58)
HI-4
(10)
NJ-14
(172)
OH-183
(275/281)
GA-16
(156)
KY-8
(52)
RI-4
(14)
CT-7
(179)
IA-6
(281/263)
SD-3
(140)
AL-9
(44)
NY-29
(43)
NM-5
(184)
VA-13
(294/257)
IN-11
(137)
KS-6
(35)
MD-10
(53)
MN-10
(194)
CO-9
(303/244)
SC-9
(126)
AR-6
(29)
IL-20
(73)
OR-7
(201)
FL-29
(332/235)
NE-5
(117)
AK-3
(23)
MA-11
(84)
PA-20
(221)
NC-15
(206)
ND-3
(112)
OK-7
(20)
CA-55
(139)
MI-16
(237)
AZ-11
(191)
TX-38
(109)
ID-4
(13)
DE-3
(142)
WI-10
(247)
MO-10
(180)
WV-5
(71)
WY-3
(9)
ME-4
(146)
NV-6
(253)
TN-11
(170)
LA-8
(66)
UT-6
(6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 281 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics.

3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

Now, the obvious response here is, "Well, sure, but how good are the polls or a [weighted] average of them at accurately predicting the order of states (based on margin) on election day?" The answer is pretty good and especially good in the case of toss up states. That latter point is a function of the fact that the toss up states are the most polled states more often than not. [There is some variation within toss up states based on how many electoral votes each has and thus their likelihood of altering the outcome of the election.]

Where this potentially breaks down is when states are very closely jumbled together as it appears some or are now in 2012 or when there is late-breaking but insufficient information to predict a swing toward one candidate or another. Looking back four years ago, for instance, the FHQ averages correctly identified that Indiana, Missouri and North Carolina were a distinct cluster (and all on the McCain side of the partisan line), but did not get the election day order right. The best example of a state where late information changed the positioning in the order is Nevada, where signs late in the race four years ago pointed to a wider Obama margin, but there was not enough data to move the averages enough to reflect the reality on the ground (...though the Silver state did move out of the toss up category in the very last election day map).

All this is to say that the order of states is pretty well baked in two weeks out from election day. Given the information we have gathered to this point in the race, if Virginia is tied or if Romney wins the commonwealth by one vote, then it will not be enough to get him north of 270 in the electoral vote tally. However, if the post-Denver compression of the average margins continues it could -- could -- disrupt the tiers of states that have formed. Right now there is a very clear Virginia/Colorado/Florida tier (Tier 1), a New Hampshire/Ohio/Iowa tier (Tier 2) and a Wisconsin/Nevada tier (Tier 3). If Tier 1 leans to Romney and Tier 3 leans to Obama, then the next two weeks in New Hampshire, Ohio and Iowa will be a lot of fun.

...or something less than fun to anyone who is not counting electoral votes.

--
1 If the election was held today.


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Posted by Josh Putnam at 5:00 PM 1 comments
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The Electoral College Map (10/22/12)

A number of polls trickled in throughout the afternoon Monday, setting some pre-debate baselines before the campaign hits the stretch run. In all, there were 17 new surveys from 10 states, and there was a lot of new data from Ohio and Pennsylvania through which to sift.

New State Polls (10/22/12)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Obama
Romney
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Colorado
10/21
+/- 4.5%
500 likely voters
46
50
1
+4
+1.59
Florida
10/18-10/20
+/- -.-%
482 likely voters
46
51
--
+5
+0.55
Iowa
10/21
+/- 4.5%
500 likely voters
48
48
2
0
+2.67
Massachusetts
10/18-10/21
+/- 3.48%
761 likely voters
55
39
6
+16
+19.79
New Hampshire
10/17-10/21
+/- 3.5%
773 likely voters
51
42
5
+9
+3.79
Ohio
10/15
+/- 3.0%
1000 likely voters
46
47
4
+1
+3.08
Ohio
10/17-10/20
+/- 3.0%
1548 likely voters
50
45
3
+5
--
Ohio
10/18-10/21
+/- 4.0%
600 likely voters
47
47
5
0
--
Pennsylvania
10/15
+/- 3.0%
1000 likely voters
48
44
5
+4
+6.21
Pennsylvania
10/18-10/20
+/- -.-%
511 likely voters
52
42
--
+10
--
Pennsylvania
10/17-10/21
+/- 5.0%
444 likely voters
50
45
3
+5
--
Pennsylvania
10/21
+/- 3.3%
887 likely voters
48
45
6
+3
--
Virginia
10/15
+/- 3.0%
1000 likely voters
47
46
3
+1
+2.18
Virginia
10/19-10/20
+/- 3.07%
1000 likely voters
47
49
3
+2
--
Washington
10/17-10/20
+/- 4.4%
500 likely voters
52
39
5
+13
+13.21
Wisconsin
10/15
+/- 3.0%
1000 likely voters
50
47
2
+3
+4.73
Wisconsin
10/18-10/20
+/- -.-%
469 likely voters
51
46
--
+5
--

Polling Quick Hits:
Colorado:
It has been two weeks since Rasmussen was last in the field in Colorado and things have shifted toward Romney in that time. The governor gained a couple of points and the president lost three. However, that probably masks the true state of the race in the Centennial state. Have things moved toward Romney? Some, yes, but not perhaps as much as the poll-over-poll comparison from Rasmussen would lead you to believe. Compared to the FHQ weighted average, the Obama share of support in the poll is in the ballpark, but the Romney share is overstated relative to the other post-debate (Denver) polling. In fact, the raw average of post-debate survey work in Colorado shows a virtual tie (a one-tenth of a point Romney lead). This poll isn't "wrong" but it is on the (Romney) end of the range of polling in the state. The PPP survey last Thursday was on the other (Obama) end of that range.

Florida:
FHQ will take a similar tack in Florida where the range of polling margins appears to be in the Obama +1 to Romney +5 range at the moment. Angus-Reid's first survey in the field in the Sunshine state comes down on the very (Romney) end of that range, but it is a result that is consistent with the established order of states. Florida is more in Romney's direction than the Ohio poll from the firm yesterday and the Ohio poll is more toward the middle than the Michigan poll from yesterday as well. [The order holds when the surveys from Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are added too. But I'll get to those shortly.] This is a long way of saying that this poll is par for the course. Florida may be ever so slightly tipped toward the president in the FHQ weighted averages, but that is gradually changing. Remember that the averages are rather conservative and when a change occurs -- if one occurs -- it is usually a lasting change.

Iowa:
Again, as was the case with the new polling data from Florida, little changed based on the newly added information from Iowa either. A tied poll -- as the new Rasmussen survey shows -- is consistent with the range of polls established in the time since the first debate. That is the current Romney end of the range in the Hawkeye state. Like in Colorado -- another Rasmussen poll today -- this poll nails Obama's share of support but is a bit higher than both the FHQ weighted average and raw, post-debate levels of support in the polls for Governor Romney. The president's lead in those two metrics is either 2.7 (FHQ) or 2.1 (raw, post-debate)

Massachusetts:
Kimball Political Consulting last conducted a survey in the Bay state in early September and that poll showed the same 55-39 advantage that the newly released October poll indicates. In a Strong Obama state with little or no electoral suspense (at the presidential level anyway), that's a talking point, but that's about it.

New Hampshire:
Tied, Romney +4, Tied, Obama +1, Romney +1, Obama +9. Those are the post-Denver margins in the Granite state. Which one doesn't go with the others? Well, I suppose a case could be made for the Romney +4 or the Obama +9, but I'll let the ARG poll slide for the moment. It isn't nearly as off as the UNH poll released today seemingly is. FHQ will leave it there.

Ohio:
The Pulse survey was conducted on the eve of the second presidential debate, and a week afterward, it is probably somewhat dated. That said, along with the other two polls, the FHQ weighted average for Ohio continues to slowly track downward. And while that may be the case, both it (Obama +3.1) and the raw, post-debate average (Obama +1.6) continue to favor the president. There are two views of this: either it is the type of narrowing that is typical of late polling as undecideds come off the board or there is some real movement toward Romney. The reality is somewhere in between as there has definitely been some post-debate movement toward Romney, but it is running just a bit above the normal narrowing that we usually see in a non-2008 general election. The point here is that there is an established range of polling data in the Buckeye state that runs from tied to about a three point lead for the president. But the more data we get on that Romney end of the range, the closer that is to reflecting the reality.

Pennsylvania:
The four new additions from Pennsylvania today are kind of all over the map, but the average margin across the quartet of polls is Obama +5.5. That is more indicative of things in the Keystone state than if we tried to take each of the four one-by-one. The truth is that Pennsylvania is a lot like another state that is near it in the averages, Michigan. And as we indicated with Michigan a day ago, Obama is in a good position; hovering in Pennsylvania around the 49% mark in both the FHQ weighted average share of polling support and the raw, post-debate average. Now, that is not an unbeatable position, but it is a tough one overcome from the Romney campaign perspective; especially given Romney's averages. Nearly all of the remaining undecideds would have to break in the governor's direction on election day for him to even come into range in either Michigan or Pennsylvania.

Virginia:
The meme in Virginia around FHQ the last few days has been the way that Obama and Romney have traded leads in the polls there of late. That is again the case among the pair of polls released today. And as we said yesterday, that has muted the impact on the averages. The trajectory has been ever so slightly toward Romney but it is not a very steep decline in the averages. Virginia is in that tier of states with Colorado and Florida that has moved within range for Romney in the FHQ weighted average, but has yet to actually jump the partisan line into the Toss Up Romney category.

Washington:
There is not much of a story in Washington. The Strategies 360 survey of the Evergreen state is right on the FHQ weighted average of polling in the state. That isn't a recipe for change in a state that hasn't really budged from the Strong Obama category throughout 2012.

Wisconsin:
Both the Angus-Reid and Pulse surveys of the Badger state are consistent with the ordering of other states in which they were both also in the field. Wisconsin is somewhere on the Obama side of Ohio at this point. The range of polling isn't as important in Wisconsin right now as Obama's relative position to 50% there. The margin can be very close indeed, but if the president is consistently either at or hovering around that threshold, then it really doesn't matter where Romney is in the polls by comparison. If there is a reason Romney has mostly steered clear of the Badger state recently, this is it. Wisconsin is one of those close but not quite sorts of states given the information we have now.


There are a couple of points that FHQ would like to drive home today. First, consistent with the way things have been around these parts for quite a while now, the map and underlying electoral vote tally are unchanged today. That is also true where it matters most on the Electoral College Spectrum below. But secondly, note also the language that kept recurring above: the Romney end of the range. President Obama continues to hold smaller, but consistent leads in the surveys conducted in most of the toss up states. However, there are seemingly more and more polls that are occurring on the Romney end of the range of polls. Now, that end could still be tied as it is in, say, Iowa or Ohio or favoring Romney as in Colorado or Florida. In other words, there is some variation. Yet, to the extent the Romney end of the range sorts of polls continue to pop up, the averages will continue to compress. The question posed by FHQ above is important, though. Is that normal late-game narrowing in the polls or is that plus continued movement toward Romney? The slow, incremental change leads FHQ to the conclusion that it is likely more the former than the latter, but there are still two weeks to go in this thing.

Note that we mentioned that there were no changes to the Spectrum where it matters most -- the middle, most competitive column -- but there was a change on the periphery. Massachusetts and Illinois swapped places in the left-most, Obama column.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
VT-3
(6)2
WA-12
(158)
NH-4
(257)
MT-3
(159)
MS-6
(58)
HI-4
(10)
NJ-14
(172)
OH-183
(275/281)
GA-16
(156)
KY-8
(52)
RI-4
(14)
CT-7
(179)
IA-6
(281/263)
SD-3
(140)
AL-9
(44)
NY-29
(43)
NM-5
(184)
VA-13
(294/257)
IN-11
(137)
KS-6
(35)
MD-10
(53)
MN-10
(194)
CO-9
(303/244)
SC-9
(126)
AR-6
(29)
IL-20
(73)
OR-7
(201)
FL-29
(332/235)
NE-5
(117)
AK-3
(23)
MA-11
(84)
PA-20
(221)
NC-15
(206)
ND-3
(112)
OK-7
(20)
CA-55
(139)
MI-16
(237)
AZ-11
(191)
TX-38
(109)
ID-4
(13)
DE-3
(142)
WI-10
(247)
MO-10
(180)
WV-5
(71)
WY-3
(9)
ME-4
(146)
NV-6
(253)
TN-11
(170)
LA-8
(66)
UT-6
(6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 281 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics.

3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

Though the Watch List remained unchanged as well, it is worth commenting on just how close Ohio is to dropping off the list now. The FHQ weighted average for the Buckeye state sits at 3.08 at the moment. If the polls keep coming in on the Romney end of the range, Ohio will slide more firmly into the Toss Up Obama category.

The Watch List1
State
Switch
Florida
from Toss Up Obama
to Toss Up Romney
Georgia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Minnesota
from Lean Obama
to Strong Obama
Montana
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Nevada
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
New Hampshire
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
Ohio
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
Wisconsin
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
1 The Watch list shows those states in the FHQ Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. The List is not a trend analysis. It indicates which states are straddling the line between categories and which states are most likely to shift given the introduction of new polling data. Montana, for example, is close to being a Lean Romney state, but the trajectory of the polling there has been moving the state away from that lean distinction.



Posted by Josh Putnam at 11:20 AM 0 comments
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Monday, October 22, 2012

2012 Debates: Third Presidential Debate (Foreign Policy)

Tonight's third and final presidential debate will get underway at 9pm from Lynn University in Boca Raton, Florida. This will be the first debate featuring a sit down format (like the vice presidential debate) and will focus on foreign policy issues. Bob Schieffer of CBS News will moderate and has chosen the following topic areas to cover this evening:
  • America's role in the world
  • Our longest war - Afghanistan and Pakistan
  • Red Lines - Israel and Iran
  • The Changing Middle East and the New Face of Terrorism - I
  • The Changing Middle East and the New Face of Terrorism - II
  • The Rise of China and Tomorrow's World
The format tonight is similar to the first debate in that a broad question will be asked, the candidates will have two minutes each to respond and then the discussion will continue for the remainder of the 15 minute block set aside for each "pod". Mr. Schieffer will have the opportunity to follow up as Martha Raddatz did in the vice presidential debate. Jim Lehrer had that same power in the first debate as well, but gave the candidates more latitude.

The same rules apply as last week. Feel free to weigh in with comments and other observations in comments section. I'll pop over periodically respond, but I'll be most active on Twitter (@FHQ). Feel free to follow along there using the hashtag #fhqdebate.


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Posted by Josh Putnam at 8:00 PM 0 comments
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