Missouri Senate Adjourns; Presidential Primary Bill Saved for Supposed Last Special Session Day on Friday

After threatening earlier in the day to walk out of the Missouri General Assembly special session altogether, the Republican Senate majority came out of recess this evening to announce that it would adjourn until Friday, September 23. At issue was a deal reportedly cut between the state House Republican leadership and Governor Jay Nixon (D) on an economic development package that excluded the Senate Republican leadership input. What this means is that Friday becomes particularly important not only for that specific piece of legislation, but for all the other active bills yet to reconciled between the House and the Senate. That is a list that includes the presidential primary bill.  The pressure is raised even higher for Friday considering that many lawmakers are resistant to the special session extending past that point.

And that translates into a likely whirlwind afternoon and evening session in the Missouri General Assembly to finish up work on the economic package as well as square the differences -- if they exist -- in the chambers' versions of the presidential primary bill. The House has passed a version of HB 3 that shifts the date for the Show Me state presidential primary from February to March but also raises the candidate filing fee in the process. However, there is a Senate amendment to be considered that would eliminate the presidential primary election completely and push for early caucuses by the parties.

Now, it should be noted that the General Assembly had a similar marathon end to the regular session in May. The move of the presidential primary was equally in doubt in conference committee at that time given that committee substitutes to both the House and Senate bills called for the primary, among other things, to be anchored to the the New Hampshire primary, falling a week after the Granite state. In the end, the differences were reconciled in conference and agreed to in both chambers, though the deal was ladened with additional provisions.

The time crunch will potentially produce a similar result on Friday; decreasing the chance of the primary elimination amendment receiving a positive vote before the Senate while also decreasing the chance that the Senate and House enter separate veto sessions to override the Governor Nixon's veto of the regular session bill to move the presidential primary to March (SB 282). The Missouri presidential primary may or may not be moved, but an answer will likely be revealed once and for all on Friday.

In other words, by then it will be known whether Missouri will be stuck on February 7, thus triggering another forward shift in the dates Florida, South Carolina, Nevada, New Hampshire and Iowa -- in that order -- are likely to adopt. Oddly enough, that very likely pushes Florida back to January 31 where it was scheduled in the first place before the law was changed earlier in 2011.

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Republican Legislators in Ohio Push Back Against Democrats on Buckeye State Presidential Primary

Ohio has proven to be an interesting case study of presidential primary movement in the 2012 cycle. For starters, Ohio legislators never considered the Florida/Arizona/Michigan route. There was never any effort to move the primary from a compliant position on the calendar (first Tuesday after the first Monday in March) to a non-compliant earlier spot. Instead, as a means of insuring that legislators and state elections officials had enough time to adjust to newly drawn congressional/state legislative district lines, the effort was always to move the primary back. That was a discussion point from the Ohio secretary of state as early as January and continued as the primary move was inserted in a broad elections bill in April.

But the process -- one motivated by seemingly noble intentions -- has since that time been a rollercoaster ride that has devolved into a political battle over redistricting between the parties in the Ohio state legislature. Democrats last week withdrew support for the May presidential primary bill based on concerns Democratic state legislators and the Ohio Democratic Party had over the Republican-proposed new district lines. As FHQ mentioned, that amounted to not much more than a symbolic move on the part of Democrats. Republicans control both chambers of the legislature in Ohio and can pass the redistricting and presidential primary bills with or without legislative Democrats. Procedurally, however, Democrats have prevented Republicans from inserting an emergency clause that will allow the bills to take effect immediately.

But according to Andy Brownfield of the AP, the Republican majority now has a technical maneuver of their own in order to pass and ultimately protect both bills and have them take effect upon gubernatorial signature. The tactical workaround Republicans have at their disposal as a means of forcing an immediate "effective by" date is to add to the measures some clause dealing with the appropriations of state funds. Any appropriations bill passed by the legislature and signed into law takes immediate effect in Ohio. At least one appropriations option that is being discussed is to create separate primaries for state and federal offices with the former being held as usual in March while the latter would be created and moved to May. The May primary would include not only the presidential primary but those for US House and Senate as well. That would be a set of offices on a primary ballot unique to Ohio. Typically, the split is made at the presidential level while everything else is dealt with -- in states with separate primaries -- in one other primary.

That helps ward off the procedural move by Democratic legislators, but prevent -- at least in the case of the redistricting bill -- those same Democrats and the Ohio Democratic Party from attempting to place the new lines before Ohio voters in 2012 as they have done with the voter ID and reduced early voting law (the one that included the May presidential primary provision).

Look for any changes to the bill to surface when the House-passed HB 318 emerges from committee on the Senate side.

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Michigan is a Rick Snyder Signature Away from Solidifying February 28 Presidential Primary Date

This afternoon the Michigan state House passed SB 584 by a vote of 63-45 on partisan lines. The House passage of the bill now sends the legislation to the desk of Governor Rick Synder (R) for his consideration. The bill maintains the status quo on the presidential primary date -- February 28 -- but attempts to restrict the participation in the primary to Republican registrants.

Assuming the legislation is signed, Michigan would join Arizona as a state in violation of the RNC rules on delegate selection. Unlike Arizona, however, Michigan might be able to petition the national party for an exemption to the rule based on the fact that other elections are traditionally held on the fourth Tuesday in February. Whether the state party would be successful in that action will be up to the RNC which has maintained a pretty consistent line on potential rogue states: that states meeting that criteria would lose half of their delegates.

Gubernatorial action is now pending on legislation affecting presidential primary dates in Michigan, New Jersey and Wisconsin.

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Additional Notes on the Missouri Presidential Primary Situation

FHQ has stated already that we are not nearly as pessimistic about the proposed move of the Missouri presidential primary to March as we were when the news broke last week that the special session legislation (HB 3) to actually move the primary became lodged in the state Senate. That is because there is still one escape valve that the Republican majority can use that will also move the primary to March 6: a veto override of SB 282.¹

Of course, it would help if we had confirmation that this was actually an option. On that front, however, there are conflicting signals from the two chambers of the Missouri General Assembly. The House is saying on the one hand that the September 14 veto session was a one-day event and has concluded. The Senate, on the other, indicates that a veto override of SB 282 is still possible.

Which is right?

Procedurally, the legislature has a ten day window in which to consider overriding a gubernatorial veto. While the House has completed its veto override business for 2011, the Senate may yet send some more actionable bills its way. The veto session operates not unlike executive sessions in the US Senate. The Senate will basically hit the pause button on what it is working on to go into executive session to consider executive branch nominations to various posts. In listening into the session last Wednesday in the Missouri Senate, it appears that the mechanism is the same in the Missouri General Assembly. The Senate stopped off its discussion of a handful of House-passed special session bills and went into veto session for a couple of hours before returning to raise the issues that have come to the fore with the presidential primary bill (HB 3).

Technically, then, if the Senate successfully overrides Nixon's veto of SB 282 -- the seemingly only available option to move the primary to March 6 -- then the bill would presumably go over the House and that chamber could likewise enter a veto session to consider the bill. And that can take place within the ten calendar day window discussed above. In other words, since both chambers had veto sessions on September  14, each would have to act on a veto override on or before Friday, September 23 (this coming Friday).

Either the veto will be overridden by the end of the work week or the special session will or will not extend into next week to resolve the conflict over the special session legislation. One option will be off the table at the end of the week though. And the the viability of that veto override option will depend to a great degree on how ominous the passage of HB 3 is throughout the rest of this week as well. If a block of that bill is firmed up, the chances of a veto override increase. But if a deal can be cut on the primary or caucus -- via HB 3 -- then the override becomes a distant memory. The way Senate Republicans are playing this, however, makes it look like they are only giving Democrats in the legislature one escape route: the override.

The Republican majority will need four Democrats in the House to override any veto. The Democrats may feel the pressure to go along with the override if they are faced with a non-compliant presidential primary.²

--
¹ After a rather circuitous route through the legislature (follow the path via the Missouri tag), SB 282 was vetoed by Missouri Governor Jay Nixon (D). The governor did this not to keep the Show Me state presidential primary in a non-compliant February position on the calendar, but to prevent the legislative branch from curbing executive power in the area of statewide vacancy appointments. To kill the part the governor did not like, then, he had to kill the whole bill.

² Then again, Missouri Democrats could always lean on the already-scheduled March 29 caucuses as a means of allocating delegates to the Democratic convention. But that would mean potentially adopting a caucus/convention system long term; something with which the state party may or may not be comfortable.

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Michigan Senate Presidential Primary Bill Passes House Committee

The Michigan House Redistricting and Elections Committee this morning recommended SB 584 for passage (without amendment) by the full House. The only bill that was on the committee agenda for today would maintain a February 28 date for the presidential primary in the Wolverine state while modifying the parameters for participation in the contest. On the state Republican Party's request, the legislature is making efforts to "close" the contest to independents and Democrats by requiring a sworn statement that any voter is a Republican (in this case) as a means of enforcement. Additionally, that information will, after the primary, be made publicly available.

The bill now goes to the House floor for consideration by the full chamber.

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Maine GOP to Caucus Between February 4-11

[Click to Enlarge]

The Maine Republican Party last weekend (Saturday, September 10) voted at their State Central Committee meeting to hold caucuses as a means of beginning the presidential delegate allocation process between Saturday, February 4 and Saturday, February 11.¹ Since the Maine process does not directly allocate delegates during the initial step of the caucus process, the state party will not be vulnerable to the half delegation penalty for holding a non-compliant contest. Iowa and Nevada were the only pre-February states during the 2008 cycle to avoid sanction from the Republican National Committee for the same reason.

As Alexander Burns at Politico points out Maine is one of a handful of caucus states considering this option -- and recall the dates of caucuses in Alaska, North Dakota and Washington are still unknown -- and it remains unclear what the individual or collective impact of Minnesota or Maine or even Colorado or Louisiana holding such early caucus meetings. The RNC really has no recourse. These states would not be in violation of the 2012 Republican delegate selection rules and are thus free to hold the early meetings.  That said, the true impact of the moves can be answered only by the campaigns actions. If the candidates stay away, then none of these states will be of consequence in the grand scheme of the nomination race. But with the contest looking like a protracted delegate fight -- at this point in time -- between Rick Perry and Mitt Romney, it will be difficult to keep the candidates away from states where delegates will not be on the line, but where the initial stages can influence subsequent steps in the process and thus the ultimate allocation of delegates.

FHQ has a few thoughts on this situation.
1. One really needs go no further back than the 2008 cycle to see how the non-binding, initial stages of a caucus/convention process can have an outsized impact on the final allocation of delegates. Many recall how Mitt Romney scored a large-margin victory in Nevada on the same Saturday as the 2008 South Carolina primary. The latter had drawn most of the attention from the Silver state and Romney coasted to victory with Ron Paul a distant second. The Texas congressman may have been well back of Romney in the tally, but the Paul delegates from the precinct level were able to organize their efforts enough to wreak havoc on the subsequent steps in the process. The Nevada Republican Party eventually canceled the state convention and the state central committee allocated the delegates via conference call. In other words, underestimate the potential impact of these early contests at your own risk, especially in the context of a competitive, two person race.

2. FHQ semi-jokingly tweeted the other day in response to the news that Mitt Romney was heading to Arizona to campaign that if the RNC was utilizing the same penalties the DNC has adopted and used over the last two cycles, Romney would not be out in Arizona. No, instead the former Massachusetts governor would stay well away from the Grand Canyon state in order not to lose any delegates he may win in the contest. The Democratic Party not only [planned to] stripped half the delegations of states violating the timing rules for primaries and caucuses, but candidates campaigning in any such rogue state ahead of the non-compliant contest there would lose any delegates won in the primary or caucus.

The Democratic Party muddled the effectiveness of that penalty to some degree by changing, rechanging and then changing again the penalties because of the Florida and Michigan situation. But the main reason the penalty did not appear to work was that Republican candidates, unfettered by those rules, were campaigning vigorously in both states. If the candidates can be kept out of a state, then the state has no attention and thus no motivation to be early in the process. [Just as a side note, think of how severe a Republican candidate-centered penalty like that would affect things in an early state with winner-take-all allocation by congressional district. That could end up being a large number of unpledged/should have been pledged delegates, and thus an effective deterrent to the leapfrogging problems of 2008 and 2012.]

3. Finally, there is some precedent for this sort of thing in a Republican nomination race: 1996.  In that year, Hawaii, Alaska and Louisiana all held caucuses -- and in Louisiana's case a binding caucus -- prior to the Iowa caucuses. Phil Gramm was knocked out of the race due to Louisiana, candidates visited Alaska and because Bob Dole, from neighboring Kansas, was running, Iowa was minimized. That put a huge amount of pressure on the Republican candidates in New Hampshire. Why the traditional first two states did not jump the other states in 1996 is still an unanswered question, and honestly I don't know that that provides any window into what the early states might do as a result of the presence of these early, non-binding caucuses early in the calendar in 2012. But it has happened before. However, it was in the frontloaded, not hyper-frontloaded (2000-2008), as FHQ likes to call it, era.

The key with this is not to look to the RNC for answers. They won't have any. The rules don't cover it. Follow the candidates and look to the reactions in the earliest of states; particularly Florida now.

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¹ Below is the email response FHQ received from Maine Republican Party Chairman Charles Webster earlier this week regarding the Pine Tree state Republican caucuses. At this time FHQ cannot confirm the date of the 2012 state convention where the delegate allocation will actually take place.

Charles Webster via davidson.edu to Joshua

The Republican State Committee voted on Saturday to request that all towns in Maine caucus between Feb 4 and Feb 11- 2012.
We will ask that every town notify the State Party by Feb 11 as to their choice for President.
We will announce those results, at a gathering to be held on Saturday Feb 11 at a location to be decided later

________________________________
Date: Mon, 12 Sep 2011 16:31:20 -0400
Subject: 2012 Maine Republican Caucuses

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NH's Gardner Indicates Granite State Presidential Primary Will Stay a Week Ahead of Other States

FHQ loves it when New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner comes along and says in a sentence or two what FHQ has spent months trying to tell our readers and other passersby. Here is what Gardner had to say to John DiStaso of the Manchester Union-Leader:

“In the end, if it's Nevada going on the 18th, then we're not going on the 14th, but I don't think it's going to be Nevada in the end” that prompts an earlier date for New Hampshire.

It is funny that Gardner should say this on the very day that I questioned on The Daily Rundown how strictly he would observe the New Hampshire election law that requires not only at least a seven day window before the primary (Iowa usually holds its caucuses eight days in advance of the New Hampshire primary.) but a similar buffer after the contest as well. FHQ has said for a while now that the tentative dates that are out there for the first four states are just that, tentative. In fact, they are a DNC creation that not all of the first four states are recognizing. The RNC only requires that Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina go no earlier than February. The Iowa and Nevada Republican Parties have gone along with that plan, penciling in their caucuses for the DNC-mandated dates (February 6 and 18 respectively), but nothing formal or otherwise has come out of either New Hampshire or South Carolina.

Gardner knows better.

And he basically put a death knell in the Nevada-just-four-days-after-New-Hampshire plan with just one statement. That, in turn, means that New Hampshire will likely go a full week and a half before either Nevada or Nevada/South Carolina if both choose to hold Saturday contests.

Now, folks may be wondering, "Well, what about 2008?" The 2008 calendar put both Iowa and New Hampshire behind the eight ball. Iowa's caucuses were pushed right up against New Year's Day on January 3, and New Hampshire positioned itself just five days later, but a full seven days ahead of the non-compliant January 15 primary in Michigan. In 2008, New Hampshire for months was tentatively penciled in for January 22, but Gardner laid waste to that notion by holding out until all the other states settled their dates before scheduling New Hampshire's (as close to compliant with the state law as he could get without pushing Iowa into December and out of compliance with the national party rules).

January 22, 2008 was never the date of the New Hampshire primary where it counted: with Bill Gardner. And February 14, 2012 was never likely to be the date of the Granite state primary either unless, of course, no states defied the rules.

That hasn't happened and neither will February 14.

...for New Hampshire anyway.

--
What does this mean for the final calendar? Well, it means what it always means: that New Hampshire is very likely to be the last player to make a move in this date setting process. Beyond that, however, it means that New Hampshire won't settle for just a four day buffer between it and the third state to hold a primary or caucus. Gardner appears to think that that third state could be Missouri or Wisconsin. FHQ has gotten assurances from folks on the ground in Nevada, though, that Republicans in the Silver state will move up to stay within the first four states grouping. This is now the second time that Gardner has brought up Wisconsin as a rogue state. He may know something that FHQ does not, but by all indications, the Badger state move to April in moving along as planned. Governor Walker has some say in the matter -- he could veto the measure -- but I have seen nothing, pro or con, to signal what Walker is likely to do. Missouri is a threat, but as I said yesterday, I'm less pessimistic about the move to March in the Show Me state than I was on the evening the news broke about the hold up of the legislation in the state Senate.

But what does it mean for the calendar?

January 23: Iowa
January 31: New Hampshire
February 7: Minnesota, (Missouri*)
February 11: Nevada
February 18: South Carolina
February 21: Florida, Georgia (Wisconsin*)
February 28: Arizona, Michigan

*Assuming neither Missouri nor Wisconsin move their primaries.

Now, this is completely speculative, but it does take into account the information that we have at the moment; information that can and will very likely change in a heartbeat.

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Members of President Preference Primary Date Selection Committee Named in Florida

Speaking of the Presidential Preference Primary Date Selection Committee...

With the clock ticking down to the October 1 deadline by which state law requires a decision on the date of the Florida presidential primary to be made, Governor Rick Scott, House Speaker Dean Cannon and Senate President Mike Haridopolos today named the members of the committee to complete that task.¹ The nine member -- three members chosen by the governor and the state House and Senate leaders -- Presidential Preference Primary Date Selection Committee (PPPDSC) is made up of six Republicans and three Democrats. The three Republican leaders had to select at least one Democrat based on the law behind the creation of the PPPDSC. That explains the 6-3 Republican advantage on the committee.

The nine members according to Michael Bender at The Buzz (St. Petersburg Times) are: 

Republicans: Jenn Ungru, former Gov. Bob Marinez, Sens. John Thrasher of St. Augustine and Rene Garcia of Hialeah, and Reps. Carlos Lopez Cantera of Miami and Seth McKeel of Lakeland.

Democrats: Sen. Gary Siplin of Orlando, former Sen. Al Lawson and state Rep. Cynthia Stafford of Miami.

The News Service of Florida is reporting that the PPPDSC is set to have its first meeting next week on Friday, September 23. That is just eight days prior to the deadline for a date decision. It is also a date that overlaps with the planned Presidency V event which will bring some of the Republican presidential hopefuls to the state for a debate and straw poll. A second meeting is scheduled the following Friday; the day before the October 1 deadline.

UPDATE: Of the six legislative members of the committee (four of which are Republicans), one, John Thrasher, has already endorsed Romney. Here is the full list of Florida Republican endorsements thus far..

--
¹ Here are the press releases from...
Scott:

Today, Florida Governor Rick Scott announced his three choices for Florida’s Presidential Preference Primary Date Selection Committee.
Former Republican Governor Bob Martinez served as Florida’s 40th governor from 1987 to 1991. Before that he served as the mayor of Tampa, the city where he was born.
Former Democrat Senator Al Lawson represented Floridians from 11 panhandle counties from 2001 to 2011 in the state senate, and before that he served nearly two decades in the Florida House of Representatives.
Jenn Ungru, a Republican, is Governor Scott’s deputy chief of staff with oversight responsibilities over the Department of State. She has served in the Scott administration since the inauguration and has more than a decade of campaign and election experience in Florida and nationwide.

Cannon:

Please find attached my correspondence to Secretary of State Kurt Browning appointing the following House Members to the Presidential Preference Primary Date Selection Committee:
Representative Carlos Lopez-Cantera
Representative Seth McKeel
Representative Cynthia Stafford

Haridopolos:

Senate President Mike Haridopolos (R-Merritt Island) today announced the appointment of Senators Rene Garcia, Gary Siplin and John Thrasher to the Presidential Preference Primary Committee.
Senator Rene Garcia (R-Hialeah) currently represents Florida Senate District 40, which consists of part of Miami-Dade County.  Garcia first was elected to the Senate in 2010.  Prior to serving in the Florida Senate, Garcia was a member of the Florida House of Representatives from 2000-2008.
Senator Gary Siplin (D-Orlando) currently represents Florida Senate District 19, which consists of parts of Orange and Osceola Counties.  Siplin was first elected to the Senate in 2002 and was subsequently reelected.  Prior to serving in the Florida Senate, Siplin was a member of the Florida House of Representatives from 2000-2002.
Senator John Thrasher (R-St. Augustine) currently represents Florida Senate District 8, which consists of parts of Duval, Flagler, Nassau, St. Johns and Volusia Counties.  Thrasher was first elected to the Senate in 2009 and was subsequently reelected.  Prior to serving in the Florida Senate, Thrasher was a member of the Florida House of Representatives from 1992-2000; he also served as Speaker of the Florida House from 1998-2000.

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The Florida Presidential Primary is Not Currently Scheduled for January 31

One question that FHQ gets periodically is about whether Florida is or is not scheduled -- according to state election law -- on the last Tuesday in January. As has been recounted in great detail in this space over the last several months, the state legislature ceded the authority to schedule the presidential primary date to the newly created Presidential Preference Primary Date Selection Committee (PPPDSC).

But the question remains: Is the PPPDSC making a decision to change the date from January 31 in the 2012 cycle or are they working from a blank slate (with the ability to set the date between the first Tuesday in January and the first Tuesday in March)?

Admittedly, FHQ has done a poor job of relating this to our readers as well as a broader audience, and I would like to set the record straight once and for all. The enrolled version of HB 1355 -- the bill that created the PPPDSC -- strikes the reference in the presidential primary law to the last Tuesday in January (see 103.101(1)(b) for the details). And the 2011 Florida Statutes reflect that change (see the same 103.101(1)(b) section).

In other words, the Florida primary is completely date-less at this point in the evolution of the 2012 presidential primary calendar and has been since May 19 when the bill was signed into law.  The PPPDSC will not be moving the primary back from that last Tuesday in January date. Instead, the members are charged with selecting a date in the window between January 3 and March 6 (for the 2012 cycle). Florida could still end up on January 31, but it will only be because it sees a threat to its desired fifth position from a state like Missouri -- should a move to March in the Show Me state prove impossible -- or Minnesota -- where Republican caucuses are currently scheduled for February 7.

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Ohio May Presidential Primary Bill -- Sans Emergency Clause -- Passes State House

Despite all the uproar from Ohio House Democrats earlier in the week, the Republican majority today went ahead with separate pieces of legislation dealing with a new redistricting proposal and moving the Buckeye state presidential primary back to May. House Democrats, upset with the new district maps, threatened to withhold support for the bill moving the presidential primary from March to May. As FHQ pointed out in the post linked above, however, the Democratic threat was only applicable if Republicans were insistent about the measure taking effect immediately. The House majority apparently was not, as the emergency clause -- the mechanism by which the law would have taken effect upon gubernatorial signature -- was removed and the bill was passed by the full House. Instead of taking effect immediately, the bill would become law 90 days after being signed by Governor John Kasich (R).

HB 318 -- the House version of SB 217 -- now heads to the Senate for consideration, and the Ohio primary is one step closer to moving to the first Tuesday after the first Monday in May for the second time.

NOTE: The Ohio legislative website does not have the vote tally up at this time, but the AP is reporting the bill has passed and the page for HB 318 marks the bill "As passed by the House".

UPDATE: The final vote was 63-29 in favor of HB 318.

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