Friday Afternoon Open Thread: The Americano

Newt Gingrich's new site devoted to providing US Hispanics with a bilingual news source with a different take.

"Hispanic Heritage is as rich today in the United States, as it was back in the 1850s when the first bilingual newspapers were printed," states Newt Gingrich. "We think The Americano will provide a much needed traditional values viewpoint that will honor that heritage."

The big question? Was the site created with a 2012 run in mind? What say you, FHQ readers?


Recent Posts:
State of the Race: Virginia Governor (9/18/09)

State of the Race: Virginia Governor (9/17/09)

What if Obama Won the Electoral College 1265-599?*

It's Never too Early for a 2012 (Value Voters) Straw Poll

Next week's Value Voters Summit is certainly not short on speakers doubling as potential hopefuls for the 2012 GOP nomination. And since many are going to be there speaking anyway, why not poll those in attendance to gauge the amount of support behind each candidate among this valuable group of Republican primary voters?

Why not, indeed? Why should Iowa and New Hampshire have all the fun?

Here's the ballot:

Newt Gingrich
Mike Huckabee*
Bobby Jindal
Sarah Palin
Ron Paul
Tim Pawlenty*
Mike Pence*
Rick Perry*
Mitt Romney*
Rick Santorum

*also scheduled to speak

That's a deep pool. But what? No Crist, no Barbour, no Thune?

Normally, I'd add the usual caveats that I include in any 2012 polling post. But in this case, I find this straw poll to be a fairly significant early indicator of how the 2012 field is going to shape up.

"The 2012 presidential primaries may be several years away but many value voters are already surveying the field of possible candidates," said Family Research Council Action President Tony Perkins. "This straw poll is an early test for possible presidential contenders who have shown leadership on the major issues facing our country."

It's no mistake that Mitt Romney will be speaking; this is a group he is absolutely going to have to convince of his conservative bona fides in some respects in order to gain their vote in just more than three years time. He is playing the current period correctly by staking out a firm, fiscally conservative line, but this is a group he will need if he is to be the frontrunner heading into the 2012 primaries. Things looked good on paper for Romney in 2008 as well, but it didn't work out.

One additional note we should make is that there are a few folks on the ballot that have been discussed in the context of splitting this segment of the Republican primary voting bloc in an early state like Iowa; making a Romney victory there more likely. It will be interesting also to see if the Sarah Palins and Mike Huckabees and Rick Santorums of the list split a sizable chunk of the vote in any noticeable way.


Recent Posts:
New Members on the Democratic Party's Rules and Bylaws Committee

State of the Race: Virginia Governor (9/5/09)

The 2012 Presidential Candidates on Twitter (Aug. 2009)

The 2012 Presidential Candidates on Twitter (Aug. 2009)

August meant more than just summer vacation and a congressional recess. Ultimately, the month proved to be -- given those distractions -- a slow month for the prospective 2012 candidates on Twitter. Even at 140 characters or less, most of the (now growing group) of possible candidates found other ways to while away the waning days of summer.

Of course, much of that could have been fueled, at least in terms of perception, by the sudden absence of the most prolific Twitterer of the bunch, Sarah Palin. @AKGovSarahPalin called it quits on the microblogging service as soon as her resignation from the chief executive's position in the 49th state became official, but promised to return (apparently as @SarahPalinUSA) sometime in the future. That day has not come, which leaves us with a conundrum here at FHQ. How do we account for the former Alaska governor's following between two accounts? Much of that issue will disappear eventually once Palin actually begins tweeting again on her new account. For the time being, though, her original account is still pulling in more followers (even with no new tweets since our last update) than the new account, sans tweeting, has. For the time being, then, we'll be using the original account in our updates. And really that only affects her tweets per day numbers and her follower ratio (She's still well ahead of all the other prospective candidates, save Newt Gingrich.). For comparison, however, FHQ will note that @SarahPalinUSA has (as of this morning) just under 4000 followers.

But how did everyone else fare during August?

[Click to Enlarge]

What can you say? Newt Gingrich continues to dwarf all the other candidates with only Palin putting a dent in the former Speaker's advantage. Well technically, it isn't really a dent as Gingrich is still gaining more per month, but Palin is the only one who really registers. Even that is a distant second, though. At the moment (as of this morning) Gingrich was closing in on the one million follower mark. One politician he does trail is Barack Obama who has recently crested above the two million follower level. The bully pulpit, it seems, stretches into the microblogging realm as well.

[Click to Enlarge]

But let's pull Gingrich out and see where the other Twittering pols come in this month. One addition we've made since the July update is Rick Santorum, who appears to be testing the waters for a possible run at the GOP nomination in 2012. I'd wager, he's hoping to get a better response on the campaign trail than on Twitter thus far. That probably isn't a fair assessment, though, considering the former Pennsylvania senator only began tweeting in late July. Still, he's got some catching up to do. There's a little flash of green by his name above, but this graph is clearly about Palin, with Mike Huckabee and Bobby Jindal representing the only others who avoid (what should be dubbed) the monthly Twitter afterthought designation.

[Click to Enlarge]

Granted, as FHQ has argued, a Twitter following is conditioned by how often a candidate is tweeting. Some 2012ers tweet more than others. Gingrich and Palin (even though the latter isn't currently active on the service) continue to maintain large tweet per day numbers. And Mike Huckabee is the only other candidate who makes Twitter a daily routine. Everyone else is only sporadically adding to their comments. FHQ has made a habit of pointing out how Palin, Huckabee and Romney have been constantly clustered together atop 2012 primary polling throughout 2009, but only the former Arkansas governor and his colleague from the north are the ones active through this medium. Mitt Romney, despite being the early favorite for the 2012 nomination, has not turned to Twitter as a means of amassing a following for political purposes. It seems the Bay state's former governor has been busy raising money through his Free and Strong American PAC and making donations to those up for reelection in 2010 to turn to Twitter. But grassroots growth is something that would likely work well for Palin or Huckabee and would make Twitter a valuable tool. Romney on the other hand is working the establishment within the Republican Party and Twitter honestly is not going to do him much good in that capacity. Now, that may change when and if Romney officially announces in say, early 2011, but he may remain a quiet microblogger between now and then. A sudden uptick in Twitter usage may signal Romney is getting ready though. We'll see.

[Click to Enlarge]

Even without being too terribly active, Romney still has a pretty good Follower Ratio (followers/tweet/day). The former Massachusetts governor trails only Newt Gingrich in that respect. Only Bobby Jindal registers anything approaching the bang for the buck that those two are getting out of what they put into the service. And that is where Palin continues to lack. Sure, the Alaskan has been tweetless since July, but for what she put into it even before her resignation, she wasn't getting much of a return in terms of a following.

FHQ will be back next month to see if that changes any.

See FHQ's May, June and July Twitter updates as well.


Recent Posts:
State of the Race: Virginia Governor (9/2/09)

State of the Race: New Jersey Governor (9/1/09)

State of the Race: Virginia Governor (9/1/09)

2012 Presidential Trial Heats (Clarus Research Group): Obama vs. Gingrich/Huckabee/Palin/Romney

Last night we looked at the 2012 Republican primary numbers from the recent Clarus Research Group poll. The same poll that found Mitt Romney doing quite well among Republican respondents in the primary setting also found the former Massachusetts governor matching up against Obama the best among the full national sample.*

...but not by much. The Mike Huckabee/Barack Obama pairing was a near mirror image of the Romney/Obama race (Obama's support against Romney was just one percent shy of the president's against Romney's while the two Republicans' shares remained the same). Before we dig too far in, let's look at the toplines:

Obama: 52%
Gingrich: 34%
Not Sure: 15%

Obama: 48%
Huckabee: 38%
Not Sure: 15%

Obama: 53%
Palin: 34%
Not Sure: 13%

Obama: 47%
Romney: 38%
Not Sure: 15%

Margin of error: +/- 3.1%
Sample: 353 Republican voters
Conducted: August 14-18, 2009

[Click to Enlarge]

For Gingrich, this is the worst showing since the May Public Policy Polling survey (the one that had the most representative sample until the August poll). There really isn't that much to say about the former Speaker. He has been polled among the Big Four throughout 2009, but has yet to measure up to the Huckabee/Palin/Romney group either in the primaries or against the president. That certainly doesn't change here.

[Click to Enlarge]

And while Huckabee does drop off compared to the PPP poll in the field nearly simultaneously, the former Arkansas governor emerges with something to hang his hat on. Earlier we discussed how this poll had Huckabee as the clear choice of Republican women in the primary race which is noteworthy with a woman in the race. But that doesn't translate once a Democrat is added to the equation. Now, we would expect the gender gap to continue to focus female support behind the Democrat and male support with the Republican in any prospective 2012 match up and that trend is not broken here. However, we do see that the gap is smaller for Huckabee (-20) and Romney (-18) than it is for Gingrich (-34) and Palin (-37).**

[Click to Enlarge]

Odd as it may seem, this is the continuing trend in this data as of now. Palin is doing worse among women than with men against Obama and has the highest gender gap (relative to the other Republican candidates). And that is striking. What's worse is that the overall gap between Palin and Obama is now wider than it was prior to her resignation. The three August polls conducted pitting the former Alaska governor against Obama, show the governor under 40% and the president above 50%. That wasn't the case after she announced her resignation, but actually having step down (at least at first glance) seems to be the line of demarcation between these poll trends.

[Click to Enlarge]

Meanwhile, Mitt Romney continues to place, if not the closest to Obama (Huckabee has been consistently closer in the PPP polls.), then second closest. And the former Massachusetts governor has been among (along with Huckabee) the candidates who have been able to minimize the amount of support the president garners in these polls.

The biggest pro and con in all of this 2012 trial heat polling is that one firm (Public Policy Polling) has been doing most of the work. That is good for the sake of comparison across polls, but by the same token is subjecting us to the same house effect over and over again. In other words, we're just missing out on the view from other polling outfits. That's why the Obama/Romney tie in the July Rasmussen poll was so surprising; it followed up the PPP polls that showed Romney close, but struggling to break the 40% barrier. Again, the one thing Romney could hang his hat on there, was that he was keeping the president under 50% in many of those polls. And honestly, that's not a very strong hook and the hat is somewhat heavy.

I still have to caution that this is all extremely early in the 2012 cycle. But the trend among women with Sarah Palin included continues to be a noteworthy statistic across all of these polls.

*Please note that the full national sample size was used in the write up of the Republican primary poll last night. That has been corrected. The Republican portion of the sample was comprised of 353 respondents.

**This figure is calculated as the sum of the deficits among women and men for each candidate against President Obama. For example, in a hypothetical match up between Obama and Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty, if the president had a 53-37 advantage among women (-16 for Pawlenty), but the governor had a slight advantage among men, say, 44-42 (+2 for Pawlenty), the gap would be -14 (-16+2).


Recent Posts:
Have the Races Changed in New Jersey and Virginia?

2012 GOP Presidential Primary Poll (Clarus Research Group): Romney Jumps

Defense Authorization Bill Amendment Could Affect Primary Timing

2012 GOP Presidential Primary Poll (Clarus Research Group): Romney Jumps

Earlier this week, Clarus Research Group released the results that included not only a look at the 2012 Republican presidential primary race, but also glanced at the head-to-heads between President Obama and what FHQ will dub the Public Policy Polling Four (Gingrich, Huckabee, Palin and Romney). In this first part, let's focus on primary race. [We'll get to the general election portion in part two.]

First, the results [pdf]:

Romney: 30%
Huckabee: 22%
Palin: 18%
Gingrich: 15%
Jindal: 4%
Other: 2%
Undecided: 10%

Margin of error: +/- 3.1%
Sample: 353 Republican voters
Conducted: August 14-18, 2009

This is the first evidence anywhere that any of the troika of Huckabee, Palin and Romney are breaking away from one another. Romney has an eight point edge in this poll, the largest margin anyone of the trio has held over anyone else in the group in all of 2009. And this is the first time anyone has eclipsed the 30% mark in any of the polls conducted thus far. That mark is also the highest any prospective 2012 GOP candidate has been since Sarah Palin was at 29% in the February CNN poll. Yes, these are nice factoids, but no, they don't mean that much in 2009. However, as I said, this is the first instance in which there has been any significant light between any of the Huckabee/Palin/Romney group. If one thing has been true in these polls throughout 2009 it is that in any given poll at least two of these candidate are within the margin of error of each other. That isn't the case here.

Also notable is the fact that Jindal made it onto the list of candidates. There isn't anything right or wrong about that, but it is strange to see Jindal included, but someone like Pawlenty left off. I hate that Clarus didn't shed any light on who the candidates were that were among the 2% volunteered group. [I'm willing to bet Mark Sanford wasn't named.] As I've said previously, though, beggars can't be choosers in these situations. Three years out, you can take what you're likely to get.

[Click to Enlarge]

One theme that FHQ will touch on tomorrow is how Palin is doing among women; not that well. We have observed that phenomenon in the context of the head-to-heads with Obama but not in a primary setting. Surprisingly, Huckabee actually does better amongst women than men; the former Arkansas governor is +11 in the female to male comparison. Every other Republican candidate falls well behind that mark, however; all the way into the negatives. Romney has the largest deficit (-7), while Gingrich, Jindal and Palin all have -3 deficits of women to men. That certainly is more in line with where Republican candidates end up in these comparisons versus Democrats, but that Huckabee number is noteworthy.

Tomorrow FHQ will have a glance at how those gender breakdowns look in the trial heats against Obama.


Recent Posts:
Defense Authorization Bill Amendment Could Affect Primary Timing

Nevermind: Democratic Change Commission Meeting Postponed

Speak of the Devil: The Texas Two-Step in Court

Marist 2012 Presidential Poll: Palin Lags Well Behind Obama but Holds Her Own in the GOP Primary Race

Marist set the 2012 jokes aside for a moment and actually got involved in the early polling for the next presidential election. Nationally, the Marist University poll probed its 938 respondents on questions focused on Sarah Palin, but for 2012, matched the former Alaska governor against President Obama and gauged her odds in the race for the Republican nomination as well. The results? In the general election, not so good. But in an early look at the primary race, Palin was once again closely clustered with both Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee setting the 2012 pace. Newt Gingrich, Bobby Jindal and Tim Pawlenty trailed that group to varying degrees and nearly a quarter of the respondents were still undecided. That's a pretty good chunk of those polled still playing the wait and see game. In fact, "unsure" would win if the election were held today. Reminds you of Jimmy Carter losing to "uncommitted" in the 1976 Iowa caucuses yet still winning the contest, doesn't it? That is the highest that type of figure has been. Of course, this is asking "unsure" but doesn't include "other" along with it to incorporate those who might feel strongly about a candidate off this list.

Let's look at the results and their attendant graphics. First the general election match up:

[Click to Enlarge]

Obama: 56%
Palin: 33%

Margin of error: +/- 3.5 points
Sample: 854 registered voters
Conducted: August 3-6, 2009

First of all, the rub on a lot of these polls lately has been the divide between the registered voter results and the likely voter results. This poll is made up of registered voters and that likely is helping bump up Obama's support. Likely voters would give us a more Republican flavor and Palin would hypothetically be closer. Still, Obama would undoubtedly be ahead in a likely voter sample. The one thing were missing here (and Public Policy Polling will help me out with this tomorrow.) is another Republican polled against Obama. Without that, we are deprived of the interesting gender gap numbers we've seen among the Republicans versus Obama. Other Republicans have been running ahead of Palin against Obama among women in other polls.

And the Republican primary race?

[Click to Enlarge]

Romney: 21%
Palin: 20%
Huckabee: 19%
Gingrich: 10%
Jindal: 5%
Pawlenty: 1%
Unsure: 24%

Margin of error: +/- 5.5 points
Sample: 310 Republicans (& Republican-leaning independents)
Conducted: August 3-6, 2009

There isn't much new here that we haven't discussed either earlier in this post or in conjunction with another primary poll. It isn't like the wide margin in the Palin-Obama trial heat (a figure that runs counter to the closing gap witnessed over the last several months.). Again, at this early point, it is Romney, Palin and Huckabee in no particular order and then everyone else. That doesn't mean someone else won't be the GOP nominee in 2012, but these are the top options as of August 2009 (and throughout the year for that matter).

NOTE: There should be some additional 2012 numbers from PPP sometime tomorrow.


Recent Posts:
Which Republican is the Biggest Threat in 2012?

2012 New Hampshire Republican Primary Poll: Romney Up Big

Rick Santorum for President? ...and Romney in Iowa

Which Republican is the Biggest Threat in 2012?

This wasn't the question that Greenberg Quinlan and Rosner posed to the participants at Netroots Nation, but if you reverse the ordering of the results, you'd get a rough idea of who liberals and progressives find are the biggest threats to Barack Obama's re-election bid in 2012. First, though, let's look at the question and the results [pdf]:

Q.16 Of the main contenders for the 2012 Republican nomination for President, please indicate
who, in your opinion, would be the easiest to beat.
Total

Sarah Palin.......................................................................... 36
Rick Santorum..................................................................... 20
Bobby Jindal........................................................................ 12
Ron Paul .............................................................................. 7
Rudy Giuliani........................................................................ 5
Jeb Bush.............................................................................. 4
Jon Kyl ................................................................................. 3
Mike Huckabee.................................................................... 2
Tim Pawlenty........................................................................ 1
Mitt Romney......................................................................... 1
(No Answer) ........................................................................ 9

Margin of error: n/a
Sample: 252 conference participants
Conducted: August 13-14, 2009

252 respondents is hardly representative of Democrats as a whole (much less the Republicans who will largely decide who their 2012 nominee will be), but I would wager a guess that this result is a pretty good representation of those attending Netroots. Regardless, Palin is perceived to be the easiest for Obama to beat in 2012 (over a third of the respondents) with Romney and Pawlenty bringing up the rear with only one percent each. Again, this isn't necessarily the same question, but if we flip those results, we would likely have at least a close approximation of the Republican whom those at NN see as the best challenger to the president three years hence.

Other than telling me that some Republicans out there are now ready to write checks to Romney and Pawlenty, this list makes me think of the Democrats vying for the party's nomination in 2004. I've tried to link the prospective 2012 Republican presidential field to the Democratic field in 2008, but the the better comparison may be 2004, especially in lieu of the fact that the GOP will be in the same position the Democrats were in in 2004: out of the White House and out of power on the Hill. Who were the 2004 principals and who are their 2012 counterparts?

John Kerry: Mitt Romney (early frontrunner who may or may not stumble along the way to the nomination)

John Edwards: Tim Pawlenty (up-and-comer making a populist appeal)

Dick Gephardt: Mike Huckabee (solid, if uninspiring choice, but at the wrong place at the wrong time)

Howard Dean: Sarah Palin (heart-on-the-sleeve type who effectively uses technology to make their appeals to an enthusiastic base within the party)

Will it play out that way? Perhaps, though not in anything resembling the same order. Palin, for instance, may or may not have already had her Dean Scream moment. One thing I will say is that a Romney/Pawlenty ticket wouldn't be a bad choice for the Party of Lincoln.

Back to the poll: No Thune. No Barbour. And most glaringly, no Gingrich. Is that because none of those three would be "easy" to beat or because not one of the 252 respondents thought of them as potential 2012 candidates? I'd lean toward the latter, but I don't consider that margin to be very wide between those two camps. In fact, the more I think about it, the more I find I'm reconsidering that answer.

Hat tip to GOP12 for the link.


Recent Posts:
2012 New Hampshire Republican Primary Poll: Romney Up Big

Rick Santorum for President? ...and Romney in Iowa

Democratic Change Commission Set to Reconvene in St. Louis on August 29

2012 New Hampshire Republican Primary Poll: Romney Up Big

Now Hampshire and Populus Research have a new poll out on the 2012 race in the Republican primary in the Granite state. I'll be interested to see the cross tabs on this one when and if they are released. The gender splits when Sarah Palin has been involved in surveys have been interesting (women moving away from the former Alaska governor in the head to heads against Obama) to say the least. Here are the results:

Romney: 50%
Palin: 17%
Huckabee: 17%
Gingrich: 13%
Pawlenty: 3%

Margin of error: +/- 5 points
Sample: 403 likely Republican primary voters
Conducted: 8/10-11/09

FHQ will have more on this when the full results are made available. At first glance, Romney is getting about half of the McCain support from the 2008 New Hampshire primary (if this poll is representative) to get to 50%. Despite the commanding lead, that seems a low amount for Romney to be pulling from McCain supporters (even if on the surface).

Hat tip to Pollster for the link.


Recent Posts:
Rick Santorum for President? ...and Romney in Iowa

Democratic Change Commission Set to Reconvene in St. Louis on August 29

The 2012 Presidential Candidates on Twitter (July 2009)

Rick Santorum for President? ...and Romney in Iowa

How many social conservative presidential candidates does it take to hand Mitt Romney the 2012 Republican presidential nomination?

Palin

Huckabee

Santorum

The 2012 primary calendar, if it remains similar to 2008, sets up nicely for Romney. Stay in the top three in Iowa, win New Hampshire, win Nevada, keep it close in South Carolina and win in Florida before Super Tuesday and that is likely good enough to put Romney over the top. That's a classic frontrunner's path to the nomination.

Now, none of the above three folks have thrown their hats in the 2012 ring, but let's assume for a minute that all three and Mitt Romney are in. You never know what Sarah Palin is going to do, Huckabee, I think, will opt for another go of it unless he continues to struggle with the financial end of the campaign, and Rick Santorum is off to Iowa for some speaking commitments this fall. I don't know, but if those three announce that they intend to seek the Republican presidential nomination, Romney may be able to win the Iowa caucuses and not look back.

I've mentioned the idea that Palin and Huckabee could split the social conservative vote in Iowa and help Romney win, but if Santorum is in, it seems a social conservative split and Romney win could become a more likely scenario. Huckabee's already a proven commodity in the Hawkeye state after having won the caucuses in 2008, and Palin is a known quantity, but what about Santorum? Doesn't he have also-ran written all over him after losing his reelection bid to his Pennsylvania Senate seat in 2006? Well, yeah. The former senator doesn't even register on this Palin-less version of the 2012 Candidate Tracker:

[Click to Enlarge]

However, Santorum strikes me as someone who is outspoken enough on issues important to social conservatives (abortion and gay marriage especially) to pull in a fervent following in the Hawkeye state. He'd be more Ron Paul than Duncan Hunter in 2008 for instance. This is, after all, someone Glenn Beck called a "Winston Churchill type" in a February 2008 interview with NPR. There is something there, but it remains to be seen whether a Santorum candidacy is one that would be able to catch on.

Regardless of whether Santorum announces his candidacy and/or draws some interest in such a capacity, let's take a closer look at Iowa in 2012. Romney received a quarter of the vote in Iowa in 2008 and was polling around that mark ahead of the caucuses as well. It is unlikely that Romney keeps all of those voters in 2012, but if he comes in as the frontrunner, caucusgoers may be more willing to give him a look. Plus, McCain's share of the vote from 2008 (13%) will be up for grabs as well and those voters will be more likely to move toward Romney than any of the two or three social conservatives. Let's assume that Romney retains 90% of his 2008 vote but that is offset by a "frontrunner bonus." On top of that let's make the modest assumption that Romney pulls in three-quarters of the McCain/Giuliani share of the 2008 Iowa vote. That would net the former Massachusetts governor an additional 12%. That puts Romney at 37%, leaving just 63% for the social conservative candidates to split. Add in Pawlenty and the other candidates likely to enter the race and the math becomes difficult to overcome. If the field is crowded -- and it likely will be -- then 35% will likely be more than enough to win the caucuses.

One thing we've yet to mention, though, is turnout. If Republicans are motivated, then turnout is likely to exceed the levels from 2008. And of course that throws a wrench into the calculations above. No matter what turnout looks like, however, if there is a crowded social conservative field, the product is going to be watered down and the likelihood of Romney slipping in the back door and winning increases.

I think Santorum's reception in Iowa is worth keeping tabs on.


Recent Posts:
Democratic Change Commission Set to Reconvene in St. Louis on August 29

The 2012 Presidential Candidates on Twitter (July 2009)

FHQ is back...

The 2012 Presidential Candidates on Twitter (July 2009)

For the last couple of months FHQ (or @FHQ) has been tracking the Twitter feeds of some (or most) of the prospective 2012 Republican presidential candidates (see the May and June updates). And yes, it's time for a belated update covering the changes from July (and the first 5 days in August).

[Click to Enlarge]

I'm not going to over-analyze this because most of the patterns from the previous iterations earlier in the summer were sustained in July. Newt Gingrich, I think, qualifies as a chronic Twitterer, and as such, has built up quite a following. None of the other possible candidates come close to matching the former speaker's following. And that still has the effect of skewing how the other candidates are perceived with Gingrich included. So let's take him out and see where everyone stands (...other than well behind the Georgian):

[Click to Enlarge]

From this view, Sarah Palin is the new Newt Gingrich. Her post-resignation announcement didn't do anything to hurt her Twitter following, as she saw a more than 100% increase over her total number of Twitter followers entering the month. Of course, with the now former Alaska governor's resignation becoming official on July 26, her @AKGovSarahPalin feed is no more. Now, I've been out of the loop this last week because of my move, but I haven't seen any news of her reappearing on Twitter with a new feed account name. Obviously, as long as Palin is without an account, she can't be accurately counted in these monthly updates and that also introduces the issue of how to account for her new feed and its following once it is up and running. She will, after all, be starting from scratch and it may take her time to clear that 100,000 follower barrier again.

Other than Palin and Gingrich, though, Bobby Jindal and Mike Huckabee continue to have solid followings with Mitt Romney and Tim Pawlenty further back. Everyone else is lagging. Yeah, John Ensign is in Pawlenty territory in terms of his following, but the Nevada senator and Mark Sanford are still being considered here only to see how their scandals affect their standing in the Twitter-verse. Neither are serious candidates for president in 2012 at this point, if either ever was to begin with in the first place.

[Click to Enlarge]

But here's the thing about all this: Followings are somewhat dependent upon how often someone is tweeting (and who they are). If we shift to observing the number of tweets each candidate has per day (based on the number of days since the candidate began using Twitter), we again see Sarah Palin and Newt Gingrich at the top, well ahead of the other prospective Republican presidential candidates. And while that may be the case, we don't really get a sense of how much bang for the buck each candidate is getting from using Twitter. For that we need an index that compares the tweets per day data above to the number of followers; something FHQ will call the Follower Ratio. This controls not only for the time aspect (how long each candidate has been using Twitter), but the number of other Twitter users following them as well. The higher the follower ratio, then, the more a candidate is getting out of the service. For instance, you can tweet all that time, but if no one's watching, what does it matter (The old, if a tree falls in the forest question.)? Once we take those factors into account, what do the usages of Twitter by the prospective 2012 Republican presidential candidates look like?

[Click to Enlarge]

Gingrich is still up there, but suddenly Sarah Palin has dropped off. The former Alaska governor is not getting the same level of return on her tweeting investment as the former speaker. Yet, now Bobby Jindal and Mitt Romney have improved positions vis a vis the other potential candidates. In other words, for what each is putting into Twitter, they are getting a fairly good return on that usage. Each has a pretty good following considering both Jindal and Romney put next to nothing into Twitter. For Jindal, that means a tweet every four days or so and for Romney, a tweet approximately every eleven days. While they aren't tweeting with Gingrich-like frequency, they are getting a good return on a small investment. Couched in slightly different terms, there seems to be a good level of interest in both Jindal and Romney's Twitter feeds despite the fact that they only rarely update them. Contrast that with someone like Mike Huckabee, who tweets almost twice a day, but doesn't have the following to match that rate. It would be interesting to compare that figure to various PAC contributions to see whether the interest on Twitter in any way correlates to the interest in contributing. Looking at the PAC receipts, the ordering matches up: Romney > Palin > Huckabee.

In any event, this ratio will be something to keep our eye on over time.


Recent Posts:
FHQ is back...

State of the Race: Virginia (7/31/09)

State of the Race: New Jersey (7/31/09)

FOX Poll: 2012 GOP Primary--The Romney/Huckabee Dead Heat Continues

Yesterday, Fox released an update of their May survey on the 2012 Republican presidential primary field. Here are the numbers of interest:

Romney: 22%
Huckabee: 21%
Palin: 17%
Giuliani: 13%
Gingrich: 9%
J. Bush: 1%
Pawlenty: 1%
Sanford: 0%
Other: 1%
Too early: 10%

Margin of error: +/- 6 points
Sample: 303 Republicans (national)
Conducted: July 21-22, 2009

[Click to Enlarge]

There's nothing shocking about these results. As most of these polls have demonstrated, Romney, Huckabee and Palin lead the pack. However, we can also glean from the inclusion of Giuliani among the list of candidates, that name recognition probably matters an awful lot. The former New York mayor and Newt Gingrich are below the trio at the top, but above some of the lesser-known candidates and those named Bush. As I've continued to say, there are some well-formed options at the top, but some of the other options are not as well-defined at this point. Tim Pawlenty seems to be signaling a presidential run both by not seeking a third term as Minnesota's governor and by assuming the vice chair position within the Republican Governors Association. I suspect we'll see Pawlenty's name rise over the course of the next couple of years.

Everyone else is stationary for the most part since the May poll by Fox. Interestingly, those responding that it is too early to tell rose from 7% to 10%.


Recent Posts:
Modified Delaware Plan

The Week Ahead

Presidential Primary Reform Week: Reading Room

Oops! A 2012 GOP Primary Poll FHQ Missed and Another Rant on the Over-Interpretation of These Polls

Home renovations like the ones FHQ did in mid-May can put a damper on your 2012 poll-watching in a heartbeat. And apparently my blogger-turned-handyman days caused me to miss one of the 2012 GOP primary poll conducted by FOX [pdf] during that period.

Excuses, excuses.

Anyway a hearty thank you to GOP12 via CQ PollTracker via GOP12 for the belated heads up. For the record, here are the particulars:

Huckabee: 20%
Romney: 18%
Gingrich: 14%
Palin: 13%
Giuliani: 12%
Sanford: 4%
Bush: 3%
Jindal: 3%

Margin of Error: +/- 3 points (+/- 6 points among Republicans)
Sample: 900 registered voters (274 Republicans)
Conducted: May 12-13, 2009

I'll skip the analysis and leave it at this: This is the only primary poll thus far that does not have Palin clustered at the top with Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee; well above everyone else. [And yes, how quaint. Mark Sanford was included -- pre-Argentina.]

Sadly, with Giuliani and Sanford now tacked onto the list of candidates, the key took up too much room and the color scheme Google Docs provided was repetitive and confusing. In sum, that was not really a workable order. The key is now gone from the figure and the names are added nearby the lines or points they correspond to. Most of the color issues were moot once I withheld the "other" line. It matched nearly identically the color given to Jindal's data. The other change is that I've added in the element of time. Everyday is accounted for in the series now so that it doesn't appear as if each poll is equidistant from the next.

Here's the trend updated through today:

[Click to Enlarge]

[If you find anything about the above graph confusing still, please let me know in the comments section.]

----

Before I close, I did want to mention one other issue with this FOX poll and the poll ABC and the Washington Post released this morning. In each case, we are talking about a 2012 primary question that is based on the responses of less than 300 Republicans (and/or Republican-leaning independents) nationally. When the goal is 1000, less than 300 respondents has the effect of REALLY ramping up the margin of error. In the process, the representativeness of the poll is made all the more questionable for something that is already well in advance of primary season (or even the competitive tail end of the invisible primary for that matter). As I've said recently, I like seeing these numbers and I enjoy seeing the trends, but these things absolutely have to be taken with a grain of salt. And occasionally I like to fold in some discussion of fundraising or organization, but I try to avoid claims like these at all costs. To assert that Huckabee leads this race or that it is beneficial for Romney to "draft" behind Huckabee is patently ridiculous. Given the margins in the polls conducted so far, Romney and Huckabee are tied (with Sarah Palin). Now, it could be that the perception that Huckabee is ahead is helpful to Romney in that "everyone else" is gunning for the former Arkansas governor and not Romney, but still. Let's just watch these numbers come in and not over-interpret them.

Please.


Recent Posts:
Presidential Primary Reform Week: The National Association of Secretaries of State's New President

ABC/WaPo Poll: 2012 GOP Primary--Huckabee Back on Top, but...

Presidential Primary Reform Week: The Fair and Representative Presidential Primaries Act of 2009

ABC/WaPo Poll: 2012 GOP Primary--Huckabee Back on Top, but...

ABC News and Washington Post have a new poll out that the blogosphere is jumping on to trumpet the decline of Sarah Palin's favorability. Yeah, FHQ won't be jumping on that bandwagon, but we will discuss the 2012 Republican primary question that was nestled deep in the results. [For the record, the Palin numbers reflect opinion of her among folks of all partisan stripes. The Republican ones are the only ones that really matter at the moment.] Yes, the usual cast of characters are represented,* but I like the fact that the names of prospective GOP candidates whose names were volunteered (not on the list of candidates named) were included in the results as well. Among that group -- which included Charlie Crist, Bobby Jindal, John Thune and other -- Jindal did the best, pulling in about 2% among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. Both Crist and Thune garnered less than a percentage point each.

Here are the results:

Huckabee: 26%
Romney: 21%
Palin: 19%
Gingrich: 10%
Pawlenty: 4%
Bush: 3%
Jindal: 2%
Barbour: 1%
Thune: less than 1%
Crist: less than 0.5%

Margin of error: +/- 3.5 points
Sample: 1001 adults
approx. 292 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents
Conducted: July 15-18, 2009

[Click to Enlarge]

First of all, this figure is getting a touch messy with the inclusion of Thune and Crist. Even still, the same pattern we've seen in these polls reemerges here: the Huckabee/Palin/Romney trio continue to be clustered relatively close together, outpacing all other possible candidates. [And it should be noted that that pattern surfaces with just 292 GOP/GOP-leaning respondents nationally. So take this poll with an extra grain of salt -- this question at least. The margin of error among that portion of the sample is likely pretty high.] It just so happens that the former Arkansas governor is getting another turn at the top.

I wouldn't read too much into Huckabee's showing (or anyone else for that matter), but I will take the opportunity to say that if last year's delegate runner-up for the GOP nomination is serious about a repeat bid in 2012, he is going to have to get a move on. From a polling perspective, he's fine, but financially he's quickly falling off the pace being set by his leading counterparts' political action committees. Both Romney's Free and Strong America PAC and Palin's SarahPAC are doing quite well in the first half of 2009. Huckabee, on the other hand, has yet to report any numbers for his Huck PAC, and that fact in conjunction with the news that the PAC is undergoing some restructuring, is a troubling start.

Again, this is all extremely early. As John McCain demonstrated during the 2008 cycle, campaign restructuring and dire financial straits aren't necessarily dealbreakers. However, 2012 won't be 2008 for the Republicans. They are facing an incumbent Democrat in the White House and will likely be looking for someone who has some gravitas among the elites within the party and an ability to raise funds and lots of them. Romney meets both those criteria the best at the moment. Palin lacks the internal party connections and Huckabee trails on both fronts.

The main question now is whether 2012 will be like 1996 or 2000 for the Republican Party. Will they have a fairly active primary campaign like in 1996 or will most of the party quickly coalesce around a candidate as in 2000? Part of the problem of assessing that question is that we have reached something of a crossroads on the divisive primaries/parties question. The pre-2008 thinking was that the quicker you line up behind someone (thus avoiding drawn-out divisiveness), the better your chances are in the general election. Post-2008, though, the thinking is slightly different. Can a drawn-out, yet not personally divisive nomination battle actually help a parties nominee from an organizational standpoint? Obama's narrow electoral college wins in Indiana and North Carolina are often cited as evidence that the primary campaign organization helped in the general election.

My (two and a half years in advance) guess is that the GOP may pay some lip service to the organizational idea, but will ultimately make a quick decision on the 2012 nomination. And I should note that I've been talking about this as if the party has complete control over this. They don't. Conditions have a large say in the matter. Democratic primary and caucus voters were evenly divided in 2008, but Republican voters may not follow suit in 2012. That potential is there (Palin grassroots vs. Romney establishment, for example), but, as I said, I think it is more likely that a consensus forms around one candidate. If the GOP elite signal in a way similar to 2000 with Bush, that they are solidly behind one candidate, then it will be difficult for anyone to disrupt the inevitability story.

All that from a poll of 292 Republicans and independents leaning Republican? Yeah, I know.

*The list of candidates included Haley Barbour, Jeb Bush, Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty and Mitt Romney.


Recent Posts:
Presidential Primary Reform Week: The Fair and Representative Presidential Primaries Act of 2009

Presidential Primary Reform Week: Congressional Action

Louisiana 2012: Jindal/Palin Both Top Obama

2012 GOP Primary Polling (July 2009 -- Rasmussen)

Is Palin in? Is she out?

That's been what everyone has been trying to hash out over these last few days since the former VP nominee's resignation announcement Friday. Regardless of the answer, though, Palin remains among the top tier of candidates in Rasmussen's first poll of the 2012 Republican presidential primary race (a poll conducted after the announcement). The soon to be former Alaska governor continues to poll nearly evenly with both Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee and as a trio they consistently run about ten points ahead of former Speaker of the House, Newt Gingrich and well ahead of the other potential challengers.

Between the two early CNN polls on the race (here and here) and the newly released Rasmussen poll, there is a fairly clear picture of where things stand. There is a top tier of candidates that has been solidified -- whether they enter or not -- and an as of yet undetermined group of secondary candidates. And those options haven't significantly changed since last November's election. Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee had their hats thrown in the race by virtue of their showings in the 2008 Republican primaries. Similarly, Sarah Palin being tapped as the 2008 presidential ticket number two and Gingrich's continued outspoken manner kept the two of them toward the front of the 2012 presidential queue.

[Click to Enlarge]

Those four options have been there, but the darkhorse options behind them have emerged and faded very quickly for still being three years away from the next round of primaries and caucuses. By this point, it is a bit redundant to recount the stories of Jon Huntsman, John Ensign or Mark Sanford, but it is the candidates of that ilk who will likely fill out the primary field in just two short years. This time around, Tim Pawlenty and Haley Barbour are the secondary candidates included in the poll. And as has been the case in the CNN polls (with Bobby Jindal and Jeb Bush ), the candidates outside of the foursome mentioned above lag well behind. However, among likely Republican primary voters, it is this group of candidates that still has the most to gain. Opinion has largely solidified around Palin, Romney, Huckabee and Gingrich and it is overwhelmingly positive (favorability to unfavorability ratio) as one might expect for well-known, prospective candidates among Republican voters.

[Click to Enlarge]

And while the "not sures" are well into the single digits for that quartet in the Rasmussen poll, over a quarter of respondents are still unsure about both Pawlenty and Barbour. In other words, there is still a significant faction of likely Republican primary voters who have yet to fully weigh in on those secondary candidates. And there is still plenty of time for each to grow his or her support, but the second tier candidates have the most wiggle room and can yet make it up to the top tier.

Time will tell...


Recent Posts:
And Another Thing About Those Winner-Take-All Primaries

Happy July 4th! No More 'Politics as Usual' Palin Edition

State of the Race: New Jersey (7/1/09)

The 2012 Presidential Candidates on Twitter (June 2009)

Last month FHQ (or @FHQ*) joined the ranks of the Twitter nation in order to track not only how the prospective Republican presidential candidates use the service, but to gauge each person's follower level throughout the invisible primary period.

[Click to Enlarge]

The pattern in June looks pretty much as it did a month ago. To put it mildly, Newt Gingrich has either a tremendous head start or just a plain ol' lead over the other potential candidates. That advantage continues to dwarf the others to the point that the differences between them is hardly noticeable. [To add in the likely Democratic nominee, President Obama currently have more than 1.5 million followers.] Before I omit Gingrich in order to better examine the other candidates' followings, let me make a couple of caveats.

First, what you're seeing is a division in the data that isn't necessarily something that provides and apples to apples comparison. The blue portion of the bars is the follower level each candidate had from the creation of their Twitter account through the end of May (Well, May 27 to be exact.) while the red segment represents what the candidates gained since the original data was collected last month. No, that's not directly comparable, but as we continue to add in subsequent data in the months ahead, this start-up issue will lessen to some extent.

Secondly, what's to be done with John Ensign and Mark Sanford? I'm going to leave them both in for the time being despite the fact that their White House aspirations have been extinguished. However, if anything, it will be interesting to see how the two scandal-plagued pols, use Twitter in the continuing aftermath of their respective revelations. That's future omissions, but what about additions? I looked for a Mitch Daniels Twitter feed but the Indiana governor has yet to become a convert. Give it time, Hoosiers.

With that out of the way, let's look at the numbers for everyone but Gingrich, who added about 200,000 followers in June. The other three of the GOP "top four" -- Gingrich, Huckabee, Palin and Romney -- are ahead of the curve. [The top four are given that designation simply because they are the most mentioned candidates for 2012 in addition to being the ones consistently included in the admittedly scant polling on the 2012 race. The phenomenon seems to stretch to Twitter as well.] Though Romney lags behind (We'll get to why in a moment), Huckabee and Palin along with Bobby Jindal, there's still enough distance between the former Massachusetts governor and everyone else to include him in the group of candidates on the upper end of the Twitter follower distribution. Huckabee, Jindal and Romney had modest follower gains in June and Sarah Palin, like Newt Gingrich, had about a 60% increase in those following her in that same span.

[Click to Enlarge]

Of the remaining prospective candidates, no one, at this point, seems to be breaking from the pack to indicate any level of emergence. Ensign and Sanford may see increases, but it is a safe bet that those gains won't be related to folks searching them out because they're interested in the pair's White House chances.

Now, there's one factor that I alluded to last month but didn't delve into that deeply: the idea that a candidate's follower count is a function of how often the candidates are tweeting, not just interest in their presidential ambitions. Mitt Romney, for example, has an impressive list of followers for someone who is tweeting so infrequently. That may tell us something about people's interest in his potential candidacy in 2012. What about the others? Tim Pawlenty, like Romney, likely lags because the Minnesota governor isn't as frequent a tweeter as, say, Sarah Palin or Newt Gingrich. The latter two tweet a lot and have a significant number of followers to show for it; each averaging over five tweets per day since they opened their Twitter accounts.

[Click to Enlarge]

Mike Huckabee is another candidate that tweets with relative regularity, but the former Arkansas governor and presidential candidate is hurt by the fact that he was an early adopter of Twitter (joining last summer). Of the rest, only Mark Sanford clears the one tweet/day barrier. But he's been pretty quiet since his "hike" last weekend.

One to watch? I'd keep an eye on John Thune. No, the support isn't there now, but with Ensign's resignation from the Republican Senate Policy Chair position and Thune's rise to that rank, the South Dakota senator has a higher profile now. Add to that Thune's new web site concerning the Sotomayor confirmation process (something FHQ tweeted), and you have an apparent increased web presence.

But I suppose we'll see in another month.

*And if you're not already following us, click here, sign up and follow. There are often items that are worth a read (and/or beyond the purview of this blog) that get a tweet.


Recent Posts:
Winner-Take-All Democratic Primaries?

DemRulz Liveblog of Democratic Change Commission Meeting

Is Next in Line a Myth?

Is a Week Old New? 2012 GOP Primary Poll

FHQ is late on this -- about a week late -- but we find it necessary to keep a log of 2012 polls even if it means a delay.

CNN released a second poll on the 2012 GOP primary race; an update from February.

Pollster: CNN/Opinion Research
Date: 5/14-17/2009
Sample: 1010 adults (nationwide phone survey)
Margin of error: +/-4.5 points
Results:
Huckabee -- 22%
Palin -- 21%
Romney -- 21%
Gingrich -- 13%
Other -- 10%
Jeb Bush -- 6%

Not included: Bobby Jindal (in February -- 9%)

This isn't exciting because there aren't many polls, but like the trial heats PPP is doing with Obama, I feel compelled to create a visual for this:
Palin and Huckabee slip some from February, but both are still very much clustered together with Mitt Romney atop the pack still. Much of that could be attributable to Gingrich's inclusion in the second poll. The former Speaker pulled in 13% while Palin and Huckabee lost 12% combined. That conclusion, though, is a leap of faith to some degree. What's interesting is that 10% of Republicans are still planning on supporting "somone else," a result that didn't change with Jindal being dropped and Bush and Gingrich being added. I wonder if that is Ron Paul? Some of it likely is.

But all of this is silly. The 2012 campaign hasn't started yet.

...or has it.

Hat tip: GOP12, which wasn't late with poll commentary on this one.


Recent Posts:
Virginia is for Voters

The Calm After the... Well, It Wasn't a Storm.

Past is Prologue? The New Jersey Governor's Race

The 2012 Presidential Candidates on Twitter

The real reason FHQ now has a presence on Twitter is because I wanted to check out the involvement the top contenders for the 2012 Republican nomination have on the service. To me, that was the easiest way to answer the "How much is Twitter worth?" question. And the resounding answer to the question was, "A lot." With some caveats, all of FHQ's Elite Eight candidates for 2012 have a Twitter account and use them with varying levels of frequency. For instance, Newt Gingrich, Sarah Palin and Mike Huckabee tweet quite a bit -- multiple times a day and every one of those Elite Eight (plus Bobby Jindal, John Thune, Haley Barbour and John Ensign) have at least put something up in the last week.

But who's watching? A Twitter presence obviously doesn't amount to much if no one is paying attention. Newt Gingrich, for instance, just yesterday made a couple of Sotomayor-related comments (here and here) that netted the former Speaker an additional 5000 followers. That is a drop in the bucket compared to his total number of followers, but that influx amounts to about a fifth of the total number of followers of the next highest prospective candidate, Sarah Palin.

To what extent, then, are the potential 2012 candidates being followed on Twitter?
As of yesterday around this time, Newt Gingrich had about 344,000 followers of his Twitter feed. For the sake of comparison, Barack Obama has about 1.3 million followers and FHQ has 1. Gingrich's total dwarfs all the other possible candidates and skews an otherwise nice figure. As such, let's remove the former Speaker and look at the remaining nine likely possibilities.
Basically, you have the troika of Palin, Jindal and Huckabee and then everyone else. Those three all offer relatively frequent contributions -- though Jindal has been quiet in May compared to April -- and that certainly helps augment their follower totals. Sure, Mitt Romney is there too, but that feed has but one tweet and overall is likely hampered by that fact -- in terms of Twitter at least. Charlie Crist is also hurt by the fact that he has started a feed to coincide with his Senate run announcement. In other words, that one has only been active for a couple of weeks.

Now, what does all of this mean? Well, tracking Twitter followers is interesting, but as is the case with Google Trends data, not without shortcomings. The main issue is whether those followers are active or if they are Twitter quitters. Gingrich has a solid total, but what if, say, a third of those followers aren't actively following anymore? [Well, that still beats everyone else, doesn't it?] Of course, it is more damaging when you consider the 60% drop off Nielsen found. Still, I think this is another layer that can be added in to the candidate emergence picture.


Recent Posts:
FHQ Now on Twitter

Does the Sotomayor Choice Make Texas a Swing State?

Two Huckabee Slips in One Day?

Memorial Day Travel and the 2012 Bumper Sticker Battle

The influence of bumper stickers on election outcomes can certainly be questioned (They have an effect?), but if my trip from Georgia to North Carolina and back (through early primary state, South Carolina, mind you) is any indication, then 2012 will be fought between Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin.


Mitt had some support in the Charlotte area...


















...and Sarah had her's on an Alabama RV in the Gaffney area of northeastwest South Carolina.








Recent Posts:
GOP Temporary Delegate Selection Committee in Place

More 2012 Polling: Huckabee's Still Tops Against Obama but No One Does Well

The 2012 Presidential Primary Calendar (5/20/09)

GOP Temporary Delegate Selection Committee in Place

Here's the press release:

RNC CHAIRMAN MICHAEL STEELE ANNOUNCES APPOINTMENTS TO TEMPORARY DELEGATE SELECTION COMMITTEE

WASHINGTON – Republican National Committee (RNC) Chairman Michael Steele today announced the appointment of Ohio National Committeeman Bob Bennett, Wisconsin National Committeeman Steve King, Florida National Committeeman Paul Senft, former Maryland Secretary of State Mary Kane, former Michigan Republican Party Chairman Saul Anuzis, former Office of Personnel Management Director Kay James, former Iowa Republican Party Chairman Brian Kennedy, former White House Spanish media spokesperson Mercy Schlapp, and former New Hampshire Attorney General Tom Rath to the RNC Temporary Delegate Selection Committee.

“I am proud to announce the appointments of this impressive group of people to the RNC Temporary Delegate Selection Committee. They are all exceptionally qualified people and I look forward to working with them in the future,” said Chairman Steele.

The RNC Temporary Delegate Selection Committee serves to review the timing of the election, selection, allocation, or binding of delegate and alternate delegates to the Republican National Convention. In accordance with The Rules of the Republican Party, the RNC Chairman appoints three RNC members and six non-members to the RNC Temporary Delegate Selection Committee, which is already comprised of four elected RNC members.

Notes:
1) Was the GOP trying to keep this quiet? By releasing this on a Friday -- the Friday before a holiday weekend no less -- this news was bound to receive less coverage than if it had been broken on almost any other day. That certainly seems to have been the case. The Democratic Change Commission's announcement garnered more coverage than its Republican counterpart. Granted, I'm on the road and wasn't as on top of things today as I usually am, but still, I had to search for mentions of this announcement. Color me perplexed.

2) Take a look at the new members of the committee. All nine are from blue states. Ohio, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Iowa, Florida, Michigan and Maryland are all represented as are Virginia (Kay James) and Florida again (Mercy Schlapp). Most importantly -- to them at least -- Iowa and New Hampshire have a seat at the table, but so do upstarts Florida and Michigan. Ohio GOP chair, Bob Bennett has been pushing the Ohio Plan for a while now (see here for more). But where are Texas and South Carolina, or for that matter, any southern state? This provides at least some indication of the direction Michael Steele will take the party. It is a nod to the need to expand the party outside of the South. But to have no southern states represented? That's certainly a break from the past.

The full committee is due to issue a report with recommendations on the rules of the 2012 primary season next summer and FHQ will have an eye on the progress between now and then.


Recent Posts:
More 2012 Polling: Huckabee's Still Tops Against Obama but No One Does Well

The 2012 Presidential Primary Calendar (5/20/09)

Here's the Problem for Palin in a Nutshell