Thursday, April 5, 2012

Race to 1144: MD, DC & WI Primaries

Contest Delegates (via contest results and rules, and RNC, Georgia Secretary of State)
Automatic Delegates (Democratic Convention Watch)

Delegate breakdown (post-MD, DC & WI):

Changes since Louisiana (3/24/12):
  • Romney: +92 delegates (Maryland: +37, Washington, DC: +16, Wisconsin: +33, North Dakota: +5, Tennessee: +1)
  • Santorum: +10 delegates (Wisconsin: +9, North Dakota: +1)
  • Gingrich: -1 delegate (Tennessee: -1)
1) Mitt Romney won all of the at-large and automatic delegates in both Maryland and Wisconsin, all eight congressional districts in Maryland, five of eight districts in Wisconsin and all of the at-large delegates from DC. Rick Santorum won the remaining three congressional districts in Wisconsin.

2) Of the slate of 25 delegates selected at the North Dakota Republican state convention on March 31, five are pledged Romney supporters and one is a known Santorum advocate.

3) The Tennessee Republican Party finalized the congressional district vote count and delegate allocation this week. The effects were minimal. One delegate shifted from Newt Gingrich's total in Tennessee to Mitt Romney's column.

4) The allocation of the delegates in Georgia is based on the most recent vote returns published online by the office of the Georgia Secretary of State. The allocation here differs from the RNC allocation in Georgia. The above grants Gingrich one additional delegate (which has been taken from Romney's total). ***UPDATE*** Due to the way the Georgia Republican Party rounds fractional delegates, the FHQ count was off by one delegate (+Romney/-Gingrich). The congressional district count is unaffected (Gingrich 31, Romney, 8 and Santorum 3), but the way the at-large delegates are allocated to Gingrich and Romney -- the only candidates over 20% statewide -- is a bit quirky. Gingrich's portion of the vote would have entitled him to 14.6 delegates and Romney's 8.0. Under Georgia Republican rules, Gingrich is given 14 delegates and Romney 8. That leaves nine delegates unclaimed because the remaining candidates did not clear the 20% threshold. The candidate with the highest "remainder" is awarded the first delegate and the candidates over 20% trade turns until all of those delegates are allocated. Remember, Gingrich did not round up to 15 delegates (14.6), but that 0.6 gives him a larger "remainder" than Romney. The former speaker, then, is allocated the first of nine delegates. With an odd number of delegates leftover, Gingrich would have a fifth turn after Romney's fourth and that would end the allocation of those "extra" delegates. Gingrich would claim five to Romney's four. Of the 31 at-large delegates, Gingrich is allocated 19 and Romney 12. Please note that for winning the statewide vote, Gingrich is allocated the three automatic delegates. That makes the final allocation Gingrich 53, Romney 20 and Santorum 3.

5) The Alabama primary results by congressional district have not been released by the Alabama Republican Party. The allocation above is based on the RNC interpretation of the allocation.

6)  Iowa Republican Party Chairman Spiker was a part of the Paul campaign in Iowa and resigned his position upon taking up the post of party chair. While he has expressed his intent to side with whomever the Republican nominee will be, Spiker has not also directly signaled any neutrality in the race. The door is open for his support of Paul at a potential contested convention. While FHQ includes Spiker in Paul's delegate total, it is necessary to make note of the possible future subtraction of one delegate that would bring the Texas congressman's total to 26.

Recent Posts:
2012 Republican Delegate Allocation: Maryland

2012 Republican Delegate Allocation: Washington, DC

Americans Elect and the Electoral College

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Matthew Tanner said...

I think the difference for Georgia is the 3 RNC delegates. I believe they are interpreting the rule to mean that all 3 will go to the statewide winner, but NOT as winner-take-all delegates. Rather they are just part of the proportional delegates awarded to the statewide winner. Therefore you should use 34 as your number of proportional delegates.

Josh Putnam said...

I'm sympathetic to that argument. The math certainly works out in conjunction with the RNC's allocation of the Georgia delegates that way. [...and I definitely defer to the RNC/GAGOP on that.]

That said, the addition to the GAGOP delegate rules to account for this has them running verbal circles around themselves:

"For the purpose of this allocation, RNC Delegates (State Chairman, National Committee Woman and National Committee Man) shall be considered at large delegates and be allocated to the candidate to the candidate receiving the largest percentage of the votes.

At-large? Or winner-take-all? If at-large, then they are proportionally allocated or at least thrown in the pool of at-large delegates. But if the candidate receiving the largest percentage of the vote, then it's winner-take-all.

Bottom line: If you rewrite your delegate selection rules make sure it is in a year with a clear frontrunner. ;)

Matthew Tanner said...

I definitely agree with you that the wording is unclear, that there is room for interpretation, and therefore the rule is badly written.