Wednesday, July 15, 2009

State of the Race: Virginia Governor (7/15/09)

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Rasmussen released the results from a new survey of the Virginia gubernatorial race earlier today and unlike the New Jersey case did not make a distinction between leaners and non-leaners. Oh well. What the poll did indicate was the Bob McDonnell continues to hold a small lead (44-41) over Creigh Deeds in the race for the top statewide slot in the Old Dominion. Oddly enough, that brings FHQ's graduated weighted average margin in the race to right at three points.

The noticeable thing about the polling conducted since the June 9 primary is that Rasmussen has tended to give Deeds a higher share of support relative to the other handful of polls released. In fact, Rasmussen's poll the day after the primary is the only poll (other than the Anzalone Lizst poll that FHQ is not incorporating into its averages) to show Deeds in the lead. This new poll, however, seems to be in line with the other recent polls that been conducted. As Christian Heinze at GOP12 pointed out today, though, Deeds has the higher "partisan ceiling" simply because he's pulling in fewer Democrats than McDonnell is Republicans at this point.

Deeds had a good June in terms of fundraising thanks to some assistance from the DGA and some labor organizations, but trails McDonnell overall in cash-on-hand. The extent to which the Democrat can unite blue Virginians and catch up in the money game will go a long way toward pulling him even with or pushing him past Bob McDonnell as the summer days fade into to fall. But we're not quite to August yet; still a ways to go.

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