Monday, July 13, 2009

A 2012 Obama v. Palin Poll in North Carolina?

If you didn't catch my tweet earlier, Public Policy Polling is due to begin releasing some numbers from its most recent survey of North Carolinians tomorrow. Included are some questions regarding President Obama's favorable ratings in the state as well as Sarah Palin's. And as I alluded to in the above link, PPP has hinted at the fact that this will include a North Carolina sample on the Obama v. Palin question for 2012. Now, Minnesota and Texas weren't anything to sneeze at -- again, a poll is a poll, especially where 2012 is concerned -- but in North Carolina, you have one of the closest states from the the 2008 presidential election and a real potential barometer of the current (and distant) state of play for 2012. We may not be able to draw anything from this survey, but it will be interesting to see how the numbers shake out in a 2008 swing state.

Here's the link to PPP's blog. FHQ will have something up when and if they post the 2012 numbers. Last week's Minnesota poll came out in two parts, so it could be Wednesday before the 2012 numbers go live and the full results are made available. Stay tuned for that and a couple other little things I've put together for tomorrow.

Recent Posts:
A Woefully, nay, Dreadfully Tardy Update of the 2012 Presidential Trial Heats

A 2012 Minnesota Toss Up, Too?

A 2012 Texas Toss Up?


Simple thoughts said...

well if obama is at 49% in ohio North carolina should be intresting

I would expect obama up about 5 points.

Josh Putnam said...

Tom Jensen at PPP said that Palin did better in North Carolina than she did in Minnesota and that the Alaska governor is within single digits. It is a Democratic-leaning polling outfit, but his tone seemed to indicate that it was a larger spread than 5. Hopefully we'll see today.

Out of curiosity, why 49%? That isn't that big a change from the 50/50 split the president and John McCain had in November. Now, if Obama's favorable/unfavorable numbers are low, a 49% share would be interesting.

...but you'd expect that to be lower with increasing unfavorables.