Thursday, September 3, 2020

The Electoral College Map (9/3/20)

Update for September 3.


While yesterday's release from Monmouth out of Pennsylvania may have had some yelling, "TIGHTENING!!!!" today's releases served as a counterpoint to that. No, that did not mean that former Vice President Biden was basking in the glow of an increased lead, post-convention season. Rather, they signaled the continued steady course this race for the White House has charted since the late spring (if not earlier). This group of polls today represent six of the most targeted states on the map and in eight of the nine surveys of those states, Biden was ahead. But there is a story in each of these and it is more nuanced than the binary "the race is narrower or not."


Polling Quick Hits:
Arizona
(Biden 49, Trump 40)
Fox News was last in the field in the Grand Canyon state as May turned to June. It was during a time in the race in which Biden's numbers were climbing to their June/July peak across the country. But that late May survey found the former vice president up just four points. That lead has more than doubled during the interim period now that the contest is on the other side of convention season. But both candidates' support in Arizona polls have been noisy throughout August. With some exceptions, Biden's support has tended to hover in a range between 45 and 50 percent as the president's share in there has been in a 42 to 47 percent area. [This Fox poll falls outside of that range on the Trump number.] All that is why Biden's average margin at FHQ is just under four points at 48-44 (rounded) percent.


Florida
(Biden 48, Trump 45)
Gone in Florida are some of the double digit leads that Biden enjoyed in June and July. And while they have been replaced by polling margins in the low to mid-single digits, the former vice president continues to maintain his edge in the Sunshine state. That is reflected in the first Quinnipiac survey of the state with a likely voter screen included. Biden's lead is smaller but persistent even if the margins may be slipping into the margin of error in some polls. And this poll is in line with the average shares of support both candidates have in Florida at FHQ (Biden 49, Trump 44). But it is a marked change from the Q-poll last month among registered voters that found Biden up 13. Again, gone are leads of that size.


Minnesota
(Biden 48, Trump 45)
Like Florida, the sizable double digit advantages Biden once held earlier in the summer in Minnesota have ebbed and been supplanted by margins the single digits. But again, Biden has remained steadily ahead in the surveys as his average margin at FHQ has tracked down to Biden +7.29 which has the state in a tight cluster in the order with Michigan and New Hampshire as of now. Part of what has brought that average down from a perch in the Strong Biden category for a brief moment are polls like the one from Harper today. The more narrow margin in the survey has Biden running a couple of points behind his weighted average share of support at FHQ while Trump runs a couple of points ahead of his. But that the former vice president remains as close to the 50 percent mark and with so few undecideds means that the president has a potentially tough needle to thread in the Land of 10,000 Lakes.


North Carolina
(Biden 50, Trump 46 via Fox News | Biden 48, Trump 46 via Monmouth)
The common theme among the polls in the states above is the consistent if not persistent Biden lead. That is true in a pair of surveys from the Tar Heel state released within the last 24 hours. The Trump number is consistent across both and in line with the rounded FHQ average. All are at 46 percent. It is the Biden number that is more variable. The former vice president has an average share of just more than 47 percent in FHQ's formula and both surveys have Biden running a bit out in front of that. But the overarching story in North Carolina is just how steady things have been. Both candidates have tended to be in pretty tight ranges and within shouting distance of each other in most polls. More often than not, however, Biden has been ahead and that is the reason for his narrow but consistent lead there.


Pennsylvania
(Biden 52, Trump 44 via Quinnipiac | Biden 46, Trump 46 via Pulse Opinion Research)
The polling in the Keystone state today offered a bit of a choose your own narrative scenario. Rasmussen/Pulse provide more fodder alongside Monmouth yesterday for the "gap is closing" angle. But Quinnipiac -- in another likely voter model -- found a wider gap in Biden's direction (but one that was exactly the same as the firm's last poll of the state (among registered voters) in February). Again, that Biden has the advantage is steady but the extent of that advantage varies but in a predictable range. And right now, that has the former vice president with a lead just beyond the Lean/Toss Up line out of Trump's reach. That is what the president has to make up. The ground between Trump's coalition of states and the states he needs stretches from the partisan line all the way to tipping point Pennsylvania.


Wisconsin
(Biden 50, Trump 42)
Finally, Fox News was also in the field with a survey of Wisconsin. It was not the 13 point advantage in the Opinium poll from a day ago. Instead, the eight point margin and where the candidates were was consistent much of the recent polling in the Badger state, even if it had Biden a bit out in front of his FHQ average share of support and the president a little less than a point behind his. The simple truth is that with rare exception, the former vice president has led in Wisconsin and the gap there has not shown any significant signs of contraction in August. Yes, there may be an outlier like the poll cited above in there, but this Fox survey is in line where the majority of polling has been in Wisconsin to this point.



NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2020 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.


The Electoral College Spectrum1
MA-112
(14)
CT-7
(162)
WI-10
(252)
AK-3
(125)
UT-6
(60)
HI-4
(18)
NJ-14
(176)
PA-203
NE CD2-1
(273 | 286)
SC-9
(122)
IN-11
(54)
CA-55
(73)
OR-7
(183)
NV-6
(279 | 265)
MO-10
(113)
ID-4
(43)
VT-3
(76)
NM-5
(188)
FL-29
(308 | 259)
MT-3
(103)
KY-8
(39)
NY-29
(105)
CO-9
(197)
AZ-11
(319 | 230)
KS-6
NE CD1-1
(100)
AL-9
(31)
WA-12
(117)
VA-13
(210)
NC-15
ME CD2-1
(335 | 219)
MS-6
(93)
ND-3
(22)
MD-10
(127)
ME-2
(212)
IA-6
(203)
AR-6
(87)
SD-3
(19)
IL-20
(147)
MN-10
(222)
OH-18
(197)
NE-2
(81)
OK-7
(16)
ME CD1-1
RI-4
(152)
MI-16
(238)
GA-16
(179)
LA-8
(79)
WV-5
(9)
DE-3
(155)
NH-4
(242)
TX-38
(163)
TN-11
(71)
WY-3
NE CD3-1
(4)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states plus the Pennsylvania), he would have 286 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics.


To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College.

3 Pennsylvania
 is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state. The tipping point cell is shaded in yellow to denote that and the font color is adjusted to attempt to reflect the category in which the state is.

The polling releases on the day offered the potential to shake things up here at FHQ. However, despite the fact that all eight polls came from six of the most targeted states of 2020, none budged on the map, the Spectrum or the Watch List. All three depictions remain just as they were a day ago. FHQ has read several times this week that the president needed more than a small bump coming out of last week's convention, especially if this is going to represent Trump's high water mark in 2020 polling. The events of the convention do not appear to have delivered on that and that presents a problem for the president unless he can bring Biden down to his level, something the campaign has been unable to do to this point.

FHQ said this last week on Twitter and will repeat it again here: This is a steady race. Opinions on the president have mostly crystalized. The only real blip seen in this pattern was Biden's rise in June and July. Other than that period, this race has seen Biden consistently ahead where it counts most. That is not to say that things cannot change in the 61 days before election day, but they have yet to really budge up to now.


Where things stood at FHQ on September 3 in...
2016
2012
2008


--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State
Potential Switch
Florida
from Toss Up Biden
to Lean Biden
Iowa
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Biden
Maine
from Strong Biden
to Lean Biden
Maine CD2
from Toss Up Biden
to Toss Up Trump
Mississippi
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Nebraska CD2
from Lean Biden
to Toss Up Biden
Nevada
from Toss Up Biden
to Lean Biden
Ohio
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Biden
Pennsylvania
from Lean Biden
to Toss Up Biden
South Carolina
from Lean Trump
to Toss Up Trump
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was  too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.


--
Related posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/2/20)

The Electoral College Map (9/1/20)

The Electoral College Map (8/31/20)



Follow FHQ on TwitterInstagram and Facebook or subscribe by Email.

Wednesday, September 2, 2020

The Electoral College Map (9/2/20)

Update for September 2.


Without Morning Consult dropping a couple of waves of battleground polling from 11 states, the second day of September was a bit quieter on the polling front that was the first. However, it nonetheless carried a quartet of surveys from some of the most watched states of the 2020 race. No, unlike yesterday, there were no changes to the overarching electoral vote tally, but there was some important movement from at least one of the toss up states.


Polling Quick Hits:
Florida
(Biden 50, Trump 43)
Of the polls that have been in the field in the Sunshine state since the beginning of convention season on August 17, Opinium's first foray into Florida seems the most out of place. Now, there have only been four polls conducted in that span, but the other three have shown a tighter race than the seven point advantage Opinium found in the perennial swing state. It is not that the poll is necessarily an outlier, but it looks much more like polls that were done prior to the conventions where Biden was hovering around the majority threshold and Trump was often in the low or mid-40s. The big difference here, then, is that Trump is still in the low 40s where most polls since convention season have found the president a bit higher in Florida.


Georgia
(Trump 48, Biden 41)
The story is not dissimilar across the northern border in Georgia, where a Landmark poll showed the president up by a healthy seven point margin. Since the firm last surveyed the Peach state in mid-August right before the conventions, Trump's share of support ticked up one point, but Biden's decreased by four. That 48 percent share of the president's is toward the upper end of his range in Georgia poll. However, Biden has not been as low at 41 percent in the state since a May TargetSmart poll found 14 percent undecided or aligned with other candidates and both major party contenders in the low 40s. Again, this may be a new trend, but it differs on the Biden number from where his FHQ average share has settled: around 45 percent.


Pennsylvania
(Biden 48, Trump 47)
While the other polls on the day ran against the idea that the race to 270 is tightening in the time since the conventions, the updated Monmouth poll of Pennsylvania was consistent with it. Since Monmouth was last in the Keystone state, the Biden's advantage in the low turnout likely voter sample version of the survey dropped from seven points to just one. The three point contraction in the former vice president's support in July ended up being tacked onto the president's total share in August. And while Biden's share is consistent with the range in other recent surveys, Trump's is on the very top of his range in the commonwealth. This sort of variability should be expected from poll to poll across firms, but whether the battle for Pennsylvania's 20 electoral votes is currently this close is going to hinge on more polls reflecting that reality. And Pennsylvania's margin now sits at 5.29 points in Biden's direction.


Wisconsin
(Biden 53, Trump 40)
Last but not least, Opinium was also in the field in Wisconsin. And while FHQ has been diplomatic about whether the other polls were outliers, it will not in this case. Joe Biden does not lead Donald Trump by 13 points in the Badger state. And it is not that these types of polls have not been seen in Wisconsin. After all, there was a Biden +10 poll from Redfield and Wilton Strategies just as the Democratic convention was getting underway. And like that poll, this one -- in the field just after the Democratic convention and during the first couple of days of the Republican convention -- finds Trump toward the nadir of his support in the state during the summer and Biden near his height. Those sorts of results can happen, but it would have been nice to see what this poll may have looked like had it been in the field a few days later.



NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2020 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.


The Electoral College Spectrum1
MA-112
(14)
CT-7
(162)
WI-10
(252)
AK-3
(125)
UT-6
(60)
HI-4
(18)
NJ-14
(176)
PA-203
NE CD2-1
(273 | 286)
SC-9
(122)
IN-11
(54)
CA-55
(73)
OR-7
(183)
NV-6
(279 | 265)
MO-10
(113)
ID-4
(43)
VT-3
(76)
NM-5
(188)
FL-29
(308 | 259)
MT-3
(103)
KY-8
(39)
NY-29
(105)
CO-9
(197)
AZ-11
(319 | 230)
KS-6
NE CD1-1
(100)
AL-9
(31)
WA-12
(117)
VA-13
(210)
NC-15
ME CD2-1
(335 | 219)
MS-6
(93)
ND-3
(22)
MD-10
(127)
ME-2
(212)
IA-6
(203)
AR-6
(87)
SD-3
(19)
IL-20
(147)
MN-10
(222)
OH-18
(197)
NE-2
(81)
OK-7
(16)
ME CD1-1
RI-4
(152)
MI-16
(238)
GA-16
(179)
LA-8
(79)
WV-5
(9)
DE-3
(155)
NH-4
(242)
TX-38
(163)
TN-11
(71)
WY-3
NE CD3-1
(4)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states plus the Pennsylvania), he would have 286 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics.


To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College.

3 Pennsylvania
 is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state. The tipping point cell is shaded in yellow to denote that and the font color is adjusted to attempt to reflect the category in which the state is.

Despite some noisy polls in a handful of important states to the outcome of the 2020 electoral math, little changed. The map remained as it did a day ago, continuing to show a 335-203 electoral vote lead for Biden. And on the Spectrum above, Florida, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin all held their positions in the order (Pennsylvania once again as the tipping point state). But Georgia, on the weight of the Landmark Communications poll pushed past Iowa and Ohio in the order of states. The Peach state moved from the most competitive state on the board to just off the Watch List below. But only just. And that underscores something FHQ mentioned on Twitter this morning: The Maine CD2, Iowa, Ohio and Georgia cluster is fairly tightly knotted together and any new surveys of any of them could easily jumble them among each other. The exact order, then, is not as important about the separation between these states in the order. Those four are the most likely the change the overall electoral vote tally, but North Carolina and Texas are next in line, separated from that cluster but certainly in range of change given the right mix of future polls. For now, however, that separation exists and is important to note.


--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State
Potential Switch
Florida
from Toss Up Biden
to Lean Biden
Iowa
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Biden
Maine
from Strong Biden
to Lean Biden
Maine CD2
from Toss Up Biden
to Toss Up Trump
Mississippi
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Nebraska CD2
from Lean Biden
to Toss Up Biden
Nevada
from Toss Up Biden
to Lean Biden
Ohio
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Biden
Pennsylvania
from Lean Biden
to Toss Up Biden
South Carolina
from Lean Trump
to Toss Up Trump
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was  too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.


--
Related posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/1/20)

The Electoral College Map (8/31/20)

The Electoral College Map (8/29/20)


Follow FHQ on TwitterInstagram and Facebook or subscribe by Email.

Tuesday, September 1, 2020

The Electoral College Map (9/1/20)

Update for September 1.


Changes (September 1)
StateBeforeAfter
Ohio
Toss Up Biden
Toss Up Trump
September opened with a flurry of new polling led by the wave of pre- and post-convention waves of battleground surveys in 11 states from Morning Consult. In fairness, the latter wave was not in the field completely after the Republican convention. In fact, it began after the Democratic convention adjourned and interviews ran through and after the Republican convention. Regardless, the impact of the two conventions is a bit of a mixed bag through that lens. Biden gained ground over Trump in four states while the president did the same in five other states. In two states -- Colorado and Texas -- the margin stayed the same.

But importantly, there was some sorting among the most competitive states on the board. Ohio again jumped the partisan line into Toss Up Trump territory and Georgia, while continuing to be classified as the same, displaced Ohio as the closest state on the map. Elsewhere...


Polling Quick Hits:
Michigan
(Biden 48, Trump 44)
In the Great Lakes state, Public Policy Polling was back in the field for the first time since the end of July and found a marginally tighter race, but with Biden still in the lead. The movement was small enough to be consider statistical noise absent other similar polls. But in truth, the was one that had Biden in the heart of his range in Michigan surveys as Trump hovered near the top of his. There has not been reliable and consistent evidence of the race narrowing, so take this one with a grain of salt until there are more polls out of Michigan. And there will be more polls. Michigan remains the most frequently surveyed state in calendar 2020.


Montana
(Trump 48, Biden 44)
The Democratic-leaning House Majority PAC commissioned a poll of Montana from Expedition Strategies and found a tighter race there than either the extant polling or he averages here at FHQ have generally found. Biden was not at his polling zenith in the Treasure state in this poll, but he was running a bit ahead of his FHQ average in the state. Meanwhile Trump was at his summertime low in the state. Montana remains comfortably within the Lean Trump category.


Nevada
(Biden 44, Trump 39)
Nearly on the opposite end of the spectrum from Michigan is underpolled Nevada. Sure, there are still states out there in which there has yet to be a poll conducted, but for a state that is often placed among the presidential targets, Nevada just has not been polled all that frequently. The UNLV poll was the first released from the Silver state in over 120 days. That is a lot of missed opportunities for additional public opinion data and a lot of missed changes over a period -- since late April -- that was among the most dynamic in a race that has seemingly settled into stable equilibrium of sorts. In any event, that Biden led by five points actually increased the average distance between the former vice president and Trump in the state. But with so many undecideds -- 12 percent -- unprompted to reveal a lean toward one candidate or the other, the survey come across as a day late and a dollar short in terms of assessing things in Nevada. Still, the update is nice.  


North Carolina
(Trump 49, Biden 47)
Over in the Tar Heel state, yet another survey from East Carolina -- the second in August -- found the president easing into the lead. The series of polls from ECU in calendar 2020 has always shown a close race, but one that seems to be moving in Trump's direction (save one Trump lead back in May). North Carolina, very simply, is close. The unweighted average of polls conducted there in August alone has Biden ahead 48-47, and this poll fits in well with that data.


Morning Consult (pre-/post-convention battleground waves)
Finally, the series of battleground surveys from Morning Consult, again, sends a bit of a mixed signal. There are decent signs for both candidates, but it is in Arizona where the changes were most pronounced and favoring Biden. The former vice president has been north of 50 in the Grand Canyon state, but that has not been paired with a Trump data point in the low 40s until now. Biden has consistently led in Arizona since FHQ began these projections back in June, but this last one appears to be an outlier.

The other noteworthy state-level surveys to pull out of this are the two Ohio polls that have Trump ahead at a level that has not really been seen in the Buckeye state in 2020. The exception is from Morning Consult from May. The common thing across the four polls the firm has conducted in the state is that Trump has been close to the 50 percent mark in all of them, ahead of his FHQ average there. And while the Ohio additions pushed it over onto Trump turf, the new polls in Georgia -- another very close state -- moved the average there closer to the partisan line, bringing the Peach state within two-tenths of changing shades on the map above.

Arizona: Biden +10 (Biden +7, Trump -5 since pre-convention wave)
Colorado: Biden +10 (Biden +/-0, Trump +/-0)
Florida: Biden +2 (Biden -1, Trump +2)
Georgia: Biden +3 (Biden +3, Trump -1)
Michigan: Biden +10 (Biden +2, Trump -2)
Minnesota: Biden +7 (Biden +/-0, Trump +1)
North Carolina: Biden +2 (Biden +/-0, Trump +1)
Ohio: Trump +5 (Trump +1, Biden +/-0)
Pennsylvania: Biden +4 (Biden -1, Trump +1)
Texas: Trump +1 (Trump +1, Biden +1)
Wisconsin: Biden +9 (Biden +3, Trump +/-0)


NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2020 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.


The Electoral College Spectrum1
MA-112
(14)
CT-7
(162)
WI-10
(252)
AK-3
(125)
UT-6
(60)
HI-4
(18)
NJ-14
(176)
PA-203
NE CD2-1
(273 | 286)
SC-9
(122)
IN-11
(54)
CA-55
(73)
OR-7
(183)
NV-6
(279 | 265)
MO-10
(113)
ID-4
(43)
VT-3
(76)
NM-5
(188)
FL-29
(308 | 259)
MT-3
(103)
KY-8
(39)
NY-29
(105)
CO-9
(197)
AZ-11
(319 | 230)
KS-6
NE CD1-1
(100)
AL-9
(31)
WA-12
(117)
VA-13
(210)
NC-15
ME CD2-1
(335 | 219)
MS-6
(93)
ND-3
(22)
MD-10
(127)
ME-2
(212)
GA-16
(203)
AR-6
(87)
SD-3
(19)
IL-20
(147)
MN-10
(222)
IA-6
(187)
NE-2
(81)
OK-7
(16)
ME CD1-1
RI-4
(152)
MI-16
(238)
OH-18
(181)
LA-8
(79)
WV-5
(9)
DE-3
(155)
NH-4
(242)
TX-38
(163)
TN-11
(71)
WY-3
NE CD3-1
(4)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states plus the Pennsylvania), he would have 286 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics.


To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College.

3 Pennsylvania
 is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state. The tipping point cell is shaded in yellow to denote that and the font color is adjusted to attempt to reflect the category in which the state is.

This group of polls actually triggered a number of changes on the Spectrum above. No, they were not big changes in the order of states, but they were changes nonetheless. Ohio not only jumped into Trump territory but bypassed both Georgia and Iowa in the process. That seems bigger, however, than it maybe is. In reality, that change is more a function of just how closely those three states were clustered around the partisan line in the first place. On the weight of today's additions, Montana traded spots with Kansas, Colorado flipped with New Mexico and Nevada, after months without an update, pushed past Florida in the order.

That latter change was enough to properly put Nevada on the Watch List below. But while Nevada joined the list, Wisconsin slipped just off it, keeping the number of states (and districts) to watch for new polling at eleven.

--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State
Potential Switch
Florida
from Toss Up Biden
to Lean Biden
Georgia
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Biden
Iowa
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Biden
Maine
from Strong Biden
to Lean Biden
Maine CD2
from Toss Up Biden
to Toss Up Trump
Mississippi
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Nebraska CD2
from Lean Biden
to Toss Up Biden
Nevada
from Toss Up Biden
to Lean Biden
Ohio
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Biden
Pennsylvania
from Lean Biden
to Toss Up Biden
South Carolina
from Lean Trump
to Toss Up Trump
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

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Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was  too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.


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Related posts:
The Electoral College Map (8/31/20)

The Electoral College Map (8/29/20)

The Electoral College Map (8/28/20)


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