The Electoral College Map (10/17/12)

Last night's debate may ultimately move the polls in some way, shape or form, but we won't start seeing that today. And even if we did, this group of states in which new polling data was made available may not be the best collection to demonstrate such a shift. Of the 12 new surveys from eight states, seven of them are from states that to this point have been strongly in favor of either Obama or Romney. And while that doesn't preclude some sort of movement in those states -- as an extension of an overall national shift toward Romney, for instance -- there isn't a whole lot in the data to suggest such a shift. Not a whole lot, mind you, but some.

Let's have a look:

New State Polls (10/17/12)
State	Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Obama	Romney	Undecided	Poll Margin	FHQ Margin
Connecticut	Siena	10/4-10/14	+/- 4.2%	552 registered voters	53	38	7	+15	+11.87
Massachusetts	Public Policy Polling	10/15-10/16	+/- 3.9%	709 likely voters	57	39	4	+18	+20.02
Montana	Rasmussen	10/14	+/- 4.5%	500 likely voters	45	53	1	+8	+9.26
Montana	Public Policy Polling	10/15-10/16	+/- 3.5%	806 likely voters	43	53	4	+10	--
Nevada	Survey USA	10/11-10/15	+/- 3.5%	806 registered voters	48	45	3	+3	+4.04
Nevada	Rasmussen	10/15	+/- 4.5%	500 likely voters	50	47	1	+3	--
Nevada	Grove Insight	10/15-10/16	+/- 4.4%	500 likely voters	50	43	4	+7	--
New Hampshire	Rasmussen	10/15	+/- 4.5%	500 likely voters	50	49	1	+1	+3.77
New Jersey	Neighborhood Research	10/10-10/14	+/- 3.5%	783 likely voters	48.4	41.4	--	+7	+12.21
Washington	Rasmussen	10/14	+/- 4.5%	500 likely voters	55	42	1	+13	+13.26
Washington	Public Policy Polling	10/15-10/16	+/- -.-%	574 likely voters	50	45	4	+5	--
Wisconsin	Marquette Law School	10/11-10/14	+/- 3.4%	870 likely voters	49	48	3	+1	+4.93

Polling Quick Hits:
Connecticut:
This is the first time Siena has been in the field in the Nutmeg state in 2012, and the numbers were consistent with other surveys of the state in terms of the president's numbers. However, it did understate Romney's share of support relative both to recent polling and the FHQ weighted average of the governor's share of support overall. At the end of the day, polling in the late summer hinted at a tighter than expected race in Connecticut, but the margin stretched out in the time since and hasn't contracted all that much in the time since the first presidential debate in Denver.

Massachusetts:
PPP was in the field in the Bay state just a few days ago and the climate there has not changed all that much in that period of time. There was a net two point shift in the president's direction in a state that is going to tip blue anyway.

Montana:
PPP and Rasmussen really could not have made a better case for the FHQ weighted average in the Treasure state. Montana is currently huddled close to the line between the Lean Romney and Strong Romney states and both surveys mimicked such a breakdown; one falling on each side of that (admittedly rather arbitrary) line. Like Connecticut and Massachusetts is firmly within one candidate's column. But in this case, it is in Romney's direction.

Nevada:

Changes (October 17)
State	Before	After
Nevada	Toss Up Obama	Lean Obama

Don't get too wrapped up in the change over for Nevada. After slipping into the Toss Up Obama category a couple of days ago, Nevada is back in the Lean Obama range. That is more a function of the collection of new polls there today and the fact that the Silver state was precariously positioned just -- and I mean just -- on the Toss Up side of the line between the two categories. It is worth mentioning that there were some rather large blips on the radar in Obama's direction before the first debate, but on the whole, most of the margins there fell in the 3-7 point range. Now, post-debate, that is more likely to be in the 2-4 point range with the +7 Obama from Grove Insight being more of an outlier than firmly within the range of results as it would have been before October 3.

New Hampshire:
The Granite state is now up to four post-debate surveys. That ain't a whole lot, folks. But the picture seems to be pretty clear through that scant level of data. Of the four, three have show either a tie or a one point lead (for Obama). Things are drawing closer and the weighted average in New Hampshire is approaching that of Ohio. If those two were to flip positions on the Electoral College Spectrum below, there wouldn't be that much of a change owing to the small number of electoral votes New Hampshire carries. If Romney won all the states through Iowa and then picked up a hypothetically shifted New Hampshire, that would get the governor to 267 electoral votes; not enough. If Ohio and New Hampshire switched spots, Obama would not need New Hampshire. The president would only have to win the states through Ohio, but that would be cutting it very fine indeed. That would get Obama to 271 electoral votes; just enough to retain the White House for the Democrats. New Hampshire would not be decisive given a switch with Ohio, but it wouldn't be inconsequential either.

New Jersey:
It is an apples to oranges comparison across polling firms, but to see an Obama +7 in both Nevada and New Jersey just doesn't jibe all that well with our understanding of where both of those states are in the order in 2012. Both polls are to the extreme end of the data in both states; beyond the top end of the range in Nevada and below the low end of the range of data in New Jersey. Things have closed some in the Garden state since the first debate (The Q poll yesterday had it at Obama +8.), but not to a level that is quite close enough for Romney to take advantage.

Washington:
Well, Rasmussen nailed things (...at least relative to the FHQ weighted average margin in the Evergreen state). If the +5 margin from PPP in Washington is accurate or even close to accurate, then my first reaction isn't so much Wow! as it is that we really need pollster to put down some stakes in Oregon and conduct some polls in the Beaver state. [FHQ thinks there needs to be some more polling there anyway.] As it is, this one looks now like an outlier given the other recent polling in Washington. There have only been two polls that found the race to be within 10 points and both were mid-summer. Incidentally, one of those, a July Survey USA poll, was the last time any poll found Obama under the 50% level there.

Wisconsin:
FHQ said just last week that it was taking a wait and see approach with the polling in Wisconsin. Up to last Thursday, the firms that had released post-debate polls in the Badger state were all firms that had found margins on the low to mid-level of the range of pre-debate data there. I said then that if we got data suggesting a tight race -- in the one to two point range -- from a firm that had shown a double digit Obama lead before the October 3 debate, then we would have confirmation of a significant contraction there. Well, the last Marquette Law School survey before the debate had Obama up 11 points. Post-debate that margin is down to one. That keeps Wisconsin tracking downward closer to a point of parity between the two major party candidates.

Well, Nevada jumped back into the Lean Obama category, but that seems like a temporary change in the grand scheme of things in this race. That shifts those six electoral votes back across the line into the lean area leaving 79 vulnerable electoral votes in six states to which the president is currently clinging (by FHQ's measurement). Of course, 51 of those electoral votes (Florida, Colorado and Virginia) may be a little closer to the partisan line and Romney than the FHQ metric lets on. In the zero-sum game that is the fight for most electoral votes, that increases Romney's paths to 270 by reducing the president's potential paths. That race could conceivably be one that rests on who wins the group of five states between Wisconsin and Iowa.

...or it could more simply mean that if Romney wins Ohio (along with the three light blue states mentioned above), he wins by claiming 275 electoral votes.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
VT-3 (6)2	WA-12 (158)	NH-4 (257)	MT-3 (159)	MS-6 (58)
HI-4 (10)	NJ-14 (172)	OH-183 (275/281)	GA-16 (156)	KY-8 (52)
RI-4 (14)	CT-7 (179)	IA-6 (281/263)	IN-11 (140)	AL-9 (44)
NY-29 (43)	NM-5 (184)	VA-13 (294/257)	SD-3 (129)	KS-6 (35)
MD-10 (53)	MN-10 (194)	CO-9 (303/244)	SC-9 (126)	AR-6 (29)
MA-11 (64)	OR-7 (201)	FL-29 (332/235)	NE-5 (117)	AK-3 (23)
IL-20 (84)	PA-20 (221)	NC-15 (206)	ND-3 (112)	OK-7 (20)
CA-55 (139)	MI-16 (237)	AZ-11 (191)	TX-38 (109)	ID-4 (13)
DE-3 (142)	WI-10 (247)	TN-11 (180)	WV-5 (71)	WY-3 (9)
ME-4 (146)	NV-6 (253)	MO-10 (169)	LA-8 (66)	UT-6 (6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 281 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics. 3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

The Watch List only saw Nevada switch back to being on the cusp of shifting into the Toss Up Obama category (something that seems inevitable anyway), but it also added Wisconsin. The Badger state, too, is now within range of a shift into the Toss Up Obama category. And if the polling continues to show a narrow Obama lead, we will continue to see the average margin there contract. Beyond those two states, Florida, New Hampshire and Ohio are also worth looking most closely at when new data is added for each.

The Watch List1
State	Switch
Florida	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up Romney
Minnesota	from Lean Obama	to Strong Obama
Montana	from Strong Romney	to Lean Romney
Nevada	from Lean Obama	to Toss Up Obama
New Hampshire	from Toss Up Obama	to Lean Obama
Ohio	from Toss Up Obama	to Lean Obama
Oregon	from Lean Obama	to Strong Obama
Wisconsin	from Lean Obama	to Toss Up Obama
1 The Watch list shows those states in the FHQ Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. The List is not a trend analysis. It indicates which states are straddling the line between categories and which states are most likely to shift given the introduction of new polling data. Montana, for example, is close to being a Lean Romney state, but the trajectory of the polling there has been moving the state away from that lean distinction.

Please see:

Frequently Asked Questions about FHQ graduated weighted average methodology.
&
An Update on how to read it in 2012.

Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/16/12)

2012 Debates: Second Presidential Debate

The Electoral College Map (10/15/12)

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The Electoral College Map (10/16/12)

Debate day, part two.

Piggybacking on the comment FHQ led with yesterday, the small window of time between the vice presidential and second presidential debate perhaps triggered a bit of a slowdown over the weekend from a number of polling firms. But we did get eight polling releases out of eight states today; the same number as a day ago and not that many less than Tuesday a week ago. Regardless of the frequency, the outlook was much the same: the race has closed following the first debate. And that appears to have plateaued some, settling into a new normal heading into the next regularly scheduled potential shock to the system. What impact will that second debate have moving forward.

New State Polls (10/16/12)
State	Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Obama	Romney	Undecided	Poll Margin	FHQ Margin
Colorado	We Ask America	10/15	+/- 2.9%	1206 registered voters	47	48	4	+1	+1.69
Indiana	Rasmussen	10/10-10/11	+/- 4.0%	600 likely voters	41	54	4	+13	+10.58
Iowa	We Ask America	10/15	+/- 2.6%	1499 likely voters	49	46	4	+3	+2.77
Massachusetts	Rasmussen	10/10	+/- 4.5%	500 likely voters	57	42	1	+15	+20.12
New Hampshire	Suffolk	10/12-10/14	+/- 4.4%	500 registered voters	47	47	4	0	+3.93
New Jersey	Quinnipiac	10/10-10/14	+/- 2.7%	1319 likely voters	51	43	5	+8	+12.61
Pennsylvania	Quinnipiac	10/12-10/14	+/- 2.5%	1519 likely voters	50	46	3	+4	+6.63
Washington	Survey USA	10/12-10/14	+/- 4.3%	543 likely voters	54	40	3	+14	+14.01

Polling Quick Hits:
Colorado:
FHQ has made no bones about how well the weighted average is reacting to the slew of post-debate data in the Centennial state. It is lagging. Period. But I don't think it is by that much. The weighted average margin has now drawn down to about a point and a half for the president. The raw average of post-debate polling would have Romney up by a little under a point while the median of post-debate Colorado polling is Romney +1. It is reasonable at this point to say that Colorado is hovering around the partisan line now; just behind Florida where FHQ has it.

Indiana:
One thing that can be said of the Hoosier state in 2012 is that it is not a toss up as it became late in the 2008 race. And with polls showing Romney up double digits or close to it, that isn't going to change late in 2012. Both candidates have gained support since the last Rasmussen poll from late July/early August and that is simply a function of undecideds deciding. This isn't 2004 -- when Bush bested Kerry by around 20 points in Indiana -- but Indiana has shifted back toward the Republicans in 2012 (relative to 2008) a bit more than some other states.

Iowa:
Two days in a row now there have been polling releases from the Hawkeye state. Still, the two represent two-thirds of the post-debate polling in Iowa. That just isn't that much. The poll-over-poll comparisons in the pre- to post-debate polling from ARG showed a seven point shift to Romney. The comparison using Rasmussen surveys shows a five point swing to the president. We Ask America was also in the field both immediately before and now after the first debate in Denver and basically splits the difference in terms of the shifts in the other two sets of polls; a one point shift toward Romney. Obama gained a point relative to his share in the pre-debate survey and Romney added a couple of points. But there is still room for more data in Iowa.

Massachusetts:
Well, on the one hand, here is some more data on the presidential race in the Bay state. On the other, it really isn't doing a whole lot for us. Since the last Rasmussen survey both candidates have added a couple of points to their shares of support, but the Obama +15 margin remains. ...as does the dark blue shade for the state on the map below.

New Hampshire:

Changes (October 16)
State	Before	After
New Hampshire	Lean Obama	Toss Up Obama

FHQ complained about Iowa being underpolled yesterday and will make the same claim here in the context of New Hampshire polling. Just three polls conducted after October 3 is just not adequate in terms of constructing a picture of the true nature of the race in the Granite state. Granted, if the national and other toss up state polling margins have dropped then the they have in New Hampshire as well. But as is our wont here at FHQ, we want to know if New Hampshire is affected about the same or is closing more or less than the other competitive states. Two of the three post-debate surveys show a tie, but that is hardly definitive evidence. That said, on the weight of the new data from those polls, the FHQ weighted average margin has contracted, bringing the Granite state back into the Toss Up Obama category. Again, as was the case when this happened with Nevada, it is important to note just how much the average has shrunk. Recall that New Hampshire slipped into the Lean Obama category just before we dropped the cutpoints between the categories. That meant that New Hampshire had even more ground to make up if the trajectory of polling ever turned around (At that point things were moving in the president's direction.) and it began to creep back toward the toss up category. It did and the average is now back within the toss up range.

New Jersey:
New Jersey is no different from the rest of the nation. If the national and state level polls are drawing closer, then it stands to reason that we would see at least some narrowing in the polling conducted post-debate in the Garden state. This Q poll seems to provide some evidence of that. It seems to be evidence of it until one considers that the previous poll of the state from the firm in between the two conventions found pretty much the same thing. In fact, Romney's share of support in the survey has trailed off by a point while Obama held steady at a 51% share. But this is an interesting comparison; the inter-convention period to the post-debate period. Some comparisons have been drawn between those two in terms of trying to quantify just how large an impact the Democratic convention in tandem with, perhaps, the fallout from Romney's 47% comments. If the first debate erased that post-convention bounce for the president, here is some proof.

Pennsylvania:
Post-debate, Quinnipiac has Pennsylvania around where both Rasmussen and Muhlenberg have the race: in the +4-5 range for Obama. There are a couple of other polls with the margin slightly higher, and together with this data -- in concert with all the 2012 polling there -- have the FHQ weighted average margin just north of that range, but narrowing somewhat. This Q poll shows an eight point shift in the margin since the September Q poll of the Keystone state. And that was an zero-sum shift between the candidates poll-over-poll; +4 Romney, -4 Obama.

Washington:
Par for the course on Washington. The latest Survey USA poll showed some movement toward Romney. Obama's share dropped a couple of points and Romney's rose by four since the September poll of the Evergreen state from the firm. That 20 point gap was a bit over where the established FHQ weighted average had been. This one isn't.

Perhaps most notably, but not all that surprisingly given changes elsewhere, New Hampshire slides back into the Toss Up Obama category after a brief post-convention stint in the Lean Obama area. That shifts those not inconsequential four electoral votes into a more vulnerable position from the Obama campaign perspective. It is not as if those have been off the Romney board, but they are becoming more attainable for the governor following the the polling changes triggered by the first debate (...though the numbers were beginning to track back just before October 3). New Hampshire is one of those states that becomes more important if Romney is unable to swing Ohio back into the red. It is an important electoral college piece in tandem with, say, Wisconsin or Iowa and/or Nevada. [This assumes Romney is able to push the partisan line up the Electoral College Spectrum to encompass Florida, Colorado and Virginia. It also assumes that if the order below is followed that Nevada, New Hampshire and Wisconsin all jump Ohio in the order.]

The New Hampshire change shuffles up the inter-category electoral vote tally on the map. The contraction of the average in the Granite state also pushes it just past Nevada next to Ohio on the Spectrum. The only other change on the Spectrum was that Indiana and Georgia flipped positions. But both are well into the Romney column and not decisive chips in the effort to cobble together 270 electoral votes.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
VT-3 (6)2	WA-12 (158)	NH-4 (257)	MT-3 (159)	MS-6 (58)
HI-4 (10)	NJ-14 (172)	OH-183 (275/281)	GA-16 (156)	KY-8 (52)
RI-4 (14)	CT-7 (179)	IA-6 (281/263)	IN-11 (140)	AL-9 (44)
NY-29 (43)	NM-5 (184)	VA-13 (294/257)	SD-3 (129)	KS-6 (35)
MD-10 (53)	MN-10 (194)	CO-9 (303/244)	SC-9 (126)	AR-6 (29)
MA-11 (64)	OR-7 (201)	FL-29 (332/235)	NE-5 (117)	AK-3 (23)
IL-20 (84)	PA-20 (221)	NC-15 (206)	ND-3 (112)	OK-7 (20)
CA-55 (139)	MI-16 (237)	AZ-11 (191)	TX-38 (109)	ID-4 (13)
DE-3 (142)	WI-10 (247)	TN-11 (180)	WV-5 (71)	WY-3 (9)
ME-4 (146)	NV-6 (253)	MO-10 (169)	LA-8 (66)	UT-6 (6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 281 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics. 3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

The same two states that moved above are the same two states involved in the changing Watch List today. Indiana moves off the list and New Hampshire -- once a lean state on the cusp of moving into the toss up category -- is now in the Toss Up Obama category but within a fraction of a point of being back in the lean area. However, the trajectory of the polling in the Granite state following the first debate does not have the average tracking back in that direction.

The Watch List1
State	Switch
Florida	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up Romney
Minnesota	from Lean Obama	to Strong Obama
Montana	from Strong Romney	to Lean Romney
Nevada	from Toss Up Obama	to Lean Obama
New Hampshire	from Toss Up Obama	to Lean Obama
Ohio	from Toss Up Obama	to Lean Obama
Oregon	from Lean Obama	to Strong Obama
1 The Watch list shows those states in the FHQ Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. The List is not a trend analysis. It indicates which states are straddling the line between categories and which states are most likely to shift given the introduction of new polling data. Montana, for example, is close to being a Lean Romney state, but the trajectory of the polling there has been moving the state away from that lean distinction.

Please see:

Frequently Asked Questions about FHQ graduated weighted average methodology.
&
An Update on how to read it in 2012.

Recent Posts:
2012 Debates: Second Presidential Debate

The Electoral College Map (10/15/12)

The Electoral College Map (10/14/12)

Are you following FHQ on Twitter, Google+ and Facebook? Click on the links to join in.