Showing posts with label special election. Show all posts
Showing posts with label special election. Show all posts

Tuesday, January 19, 2010

MA Senate Special: Open Thread

FHQ obviously has not weighed in on this race since the primary set the stage early last month. Here we are, though, on yet another election day. The dynamics in this one have been interesting. In political science we operate under the assumption that there will be some tightening in the polls in any race as election day nears. However, in blue Massachusetts, with Ted Kennedy's seat on the line, the fact that Scott Brown has pulled even and even surpassed Martha Coakley in some polls exceeds even those expectations.

The polls are open (and close tonight at 8pm Eastern) and Bay staters are voting. What are your thoughts on how this race has progressed and who do you think will pull this thing out tonight (...or in the near future if we have to wait!?!)?

Recent Posts:

Tuesday, December 8, 2009

Coakley, Brown Win Parties' Nods in MA Senate Specials

[Map courtesy of The Boston Globe--Click to Enlarge]

UPDATE: The map above shows the complete results with 100% reporting.

With 95% of the precincts reporting, Democratic Massachusetts Attorney General, Martha Coakley, and Republican state senator, Scott Brown have earned their respective parties' nominations to face off in the January 19 special (general) election to succeed Ted Kennedy in the Senate. Coakley, in a multi-candidate race nearly reached 50% (at 47% as of now) while Brown amassed over 80% of the Republican primary vote.

It may not be the most exciting thing in the world, but there will be a high profile election on January 19 and FHQ will be watching.

Recent Posts:
Huckabee's Favorability in the Post-Commutation Environment

Thoughts on the Special Democratic Primary Election in Massachusetts Today?

Democratic Change Commission 2012 Rules Recommendations Taking Shape

Thoughts on the Special Democratic Primary Election in Massachusetts Today?

Who is going to win this thing, FHQ readers? Will Coakley be able to maintain the same level of support at the polls today that she has had through most of the polls that have been conducted in this short race. Or will Capuano mount and complete a comeback victory for the Democratic nomination to potentially succeed Ted Kennedy in the Senate?

UPDATE: Here are the particulars on the election today from The Green Papers:

On Tuesday 8 December 2009, Massachusetts will hold a Special Primary for the Senate Class 1 seat. The seat is currently held by Senator Paul G. Kirk, Jr. who was appointed 24 September 2009 by Massachusetts Governor Deval L. Patrick to fill the vacancy caused by the 25 August 2009 passing of Senator Edward Moore "Ted" Kennedy (Democrat).

Dates: Special Primary to fill the seat: Tuesday 8 December 2009. Special Election: Tuesday 19 January 2010. Next regular election: Tuesday 6 November 2012.

Polling hours are 7:00a EST (1200 UTC) to 8:00p EST (0100 UTC). By local option, municipalities may open their polls as early as 5:45 a.m.

Recent Posts:
Democratic Change Commission 2012 Rules Recommendations Taking Shape

Democratic Change Commission Meeting (#3) Tomorrow

The Links (12/3/09)

Tuesday, November 3, 2009

Election Night 2009: Live Blog (ME-ref, NJ-gov, NY-23, VA-gov)

12:26pm: FHQ will return in the morning for some parting shots on Election '09 and to tie up the loose ends in Maine and in CA-10. Everyone has something to spin tonight, but the GOP got the two biggest gets in New Jersey and Virginia.

12:22pm: One last update: Maine's Yes on 1 seems likely to win and repeal the gay marriage law in the Pine Tree state. With about 80% of the precincts in, the lead is nearly 5% for Yes.

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12:16pm: Hoffman has conceded NY-23.

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12:03pm: Owens has jumped back over 49% with almost 90% of the precincts reporting. If the Democrats win in California's 10th district special election the party will have swept all the congressional special elections in 2009. It hasn't been a good night for the Democratic Party, but that is one thing the DCCC can hang its hat on. Now, in 2010, their task will be more difficult.

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12:00am: Fox is calling NY-23 for Owens.

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11:55pm: In other words, of those 5800 absentee ballots returned, Hoffman is going to have to win by about 4:1 to make up the difference between himself and Owens. And yeah, a lot of those ballots were returned when Scozzafava was still in the race. That's an uphill climb for Hoffman.

11:52pm: From the Watertown Daily Times (in NY-23):
"Democrat Bill Owens is leading in the 23rd Congressional District race.

The Plattsburgh attorney has 58,851 votes compared to Conservative Doug Hoffman, a Lake Placid CPA, with 55,618 votes.

Dede Scozzafava, a Republican who dropped out of the race Saturday, has 6,749 votes.

There were more than 10,000 absentee votes sent out before the election and some 5,800 were returned and must be counted. More absentee ballots, if sent before the deadline, could still be received.

Owens now leads in Jefferson, St. Lawrence, Franklin, Clinton and Essex counties.

Hoffman leads in Lewis, Oswego, Oneida, Fulton, Hamilton and Madison counties.

Owens is maintaining a 48 percent to 46 percent lead.

Four precincts in St. Lawrence County are having mechanical problems and total results for the county won't be available tonight."

11:42pm: A last glance at New Jersey and Virginia (a lot of red tonight):

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11:30pm: Also, The Albany Project is calling NY-23 for Owens. That's an unofficial call.

11:27pm: After a quick nourishment break, FHQ is back. Let's check in on NY-23 and in Maine. Owens continues to hold on with just under 80% reporting and Yes on 1 has stretched a thin lead into a "thin but not quite as thin" edge.

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11:04pm: Just about half of the precincts are reporting in Maine and Yes on 1 (to repeal the gay marriage law passed by the state legislature) is now ahead.

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10:51pm: Maine is down to 37 votes margin. From Political Wire via Twitter: "Maine gay-marriage initiative currently at a 37-vote difference. Yes, 37. (via @steve_shepard)."

10:45pm: Not vying for the honor of closest? That would be Virginia's gubernatorial race:

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10:43pm: Well, I suppose NY-23 would have to duke it out with the Maine gay marriage ballot measure for that distinction. Things are slightly tighter in the Pine Tree state than in the North Country.

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10:40pm: Over half precincts are in in Upstate New York. Owens has slipped under 50% and the Democrat's lead is down to under 3 points. Could this one be the close one we've been waiting for?

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10:28pm: Corzine could not pull the Brendan Byrne circa 1977 comeback. There has not been a Democratic come-from-behind in a New Jersey gubernatorial race since then. That's mostly because the Democrats are ahead in the polls. The incumbent Democrat was simple too unpopular statewide and Chris Daggett didn't end up pulling enough actual votes away from Christie to make that a non-factor. That's the way it had been in the October polls in the race. Independents broke for Christie in the end and not Daggett.

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10:22pm: Back to NY-23 (Don't worry we'll return for a few notes on Christie's win.): 31% of precincts are in and Owens is still over 50%. Others have said that the story in Virginia and New Jersey tonight was the independents (both broke for the Republicans), but is a moderate, albeit right-leaning, district going for the moderate Democrat instead of the more ideologically extreme Conservative, Hoffman?

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10:15pm: Had to point that out didn't you, FHQ?

10:13pm: We interrupt NY-23 to announce that the AP has called New Jersey for Christie. Wow! That's a much quicker call than we had anticipated. However, FHQ was 2 for 2 on the gubernatorial calls.

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10:10pm: Granted, the last round of polling in NY-23 had Hoffman pulling ahead. The Conservative Party nominee was the momentum candidate heading into today.

10:08pm: Of course, Erick Erickson (RedState) had this to say (also via Twitter): "Hoffman race too close to call for now, but they are still cautiously optimistic."

10:06pm: Marc Ambinder on NY-23 (via Twitter): "Republicans suddenly VERY nervous about NY 23...."

10:04pm: The results are slow to come in up in Maine. With 22% of the precincts reporting, the turnout rate is 81% and No on 1 holds a now very slim lead (50.62%-49.38%).

9:53pm: Nearly two-thirds of the votes are in in New Jersey. I think it is safe to say that Daggett is hurting Jon Corzine. Well, Daggett's having underperformed expectations are anyway. The independent is still at about half of the share FHQ projected him to have based on polling. As we've mentioned that may be a function of the fact that he was the lone alternative to Christie and Corzine in a lot of those polls. The support just wasn't there.

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9:49pm: In local election news, turnout was LIGHT in Winston Salem today. Joines (D) was running unopposed for mayor. I was voter #113 in my precinct. just before 5pm. Yikes!

9:37pm: A quick peek at Virginia: McDonnell is under 60% and Deeds broke the 40% barrier. A big turnaround from a year ago in Virginia.

...for both parties.

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9:30pm: Owens with the early lead in NY-23. Well, that's a 37-25 lead over Hoffman. Scozzafava has 3. Let's project that one based on less than 1% reporting.

...or not.

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9:22pm: Update from Maine. No on 1 is ahead as is the medical marijuana. Turnout was 45% (unofficially) in the Pine Tree state today. That's not bad for a ballot full of referenda. Thanks to Jack for the link to the results.

9:08pm: The story so far in New Jersey is that Daggett is underperforming (Ah, the third party election day fade.) while the two major party candidates are overperforming expectations slightly. With just over a quarter of the state reporting, Christie is over 50%. The Republican hadn't seen that level of support in the polls since the summer. What was his last poll with over 50%? An early August Rasmussen poll. It's been a while. Corzine may yet break that 45% barrier we discussed earlier, but for the time being he's in the low 40s.

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9:05pm: Only 501 precincts yet to come in in Virginia. Nope, not getting any closer. Will Deeds break 40%? That is the question. FHQ had him pegged at 41.0%. There's little doubt McDonnell will exceed FHQ's projection.

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8:59pm: I love the map New York Times has up on their front page. There's nothing like a map being filled in a election results come in:

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8:56pm: Polls are about to close in NY-23. Let the uncertainty begin dissipating.


8:46pm: FHQ is late to start, but it doesn't look like we missed much in Virginia:
[Click to Enlarge]

That one gets an, "Ouch" rating. I felt like FHQ's averages may have undervalued McDonnell's potential vote share, but Deeds' polling versus Deeds' vote share aren't that different. Yes, I see that it's official in Virginia. Did the above graphic leave any room for doubt?

Recent Posts:
State of the Race: New Jersey Governor (11/3/09) -- Final

State of the Race: Virginia Governor (11/3/09) -- Final

Final Virginia Update coming between 2 & 3 this afternoon.

Election Day 2009: What's on Tap? -- A Viewing Guide

Here's the rundown from The Green Papers:

polls open from 6 AM local time (1100 GMT) to 8 PM local time (0100 GMT, 4 Nov)

Statewide offices up for election:

  • Governor, with Lieutenant Governor elected on a ticket with the winning gubernatorial candidate (NOTE: this is the very first time NEW JERSEY will be electing a Lieutenant Governor).


polls open from 6 AM local time (1100 GMT) to 7 PM local time (0000 GMT, 4 Nov)

Statewide offices up for election:

  • Governor
  • Lieutenant Governor (elected separately from Governor)
  • Attorney General

SPECIAL ELECTIONS for U.S. House of Representatives

CALIFORNIA's 10th Congressional District:

  • to fill the vacancy caused by the resignation of Ellen Tauscher [Democrat], 27 June 2009, to become Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security.

polls open from 7 AM local time (1500 GMT) to 8 PM local time (0400 GMT, 4 Nov)

NEW YORK's 23rd Congressional District:

  • to fill the vacancy caused by the resignation of John McHugh [Republican], 21 September 2009, to become Secretary of the Army.

polls open from 6 AM local time (1100 GMT) to 9 PM local time (0200 GMT, 4 Nov)

Oh, and let's not forget Maine. Polls opened at 6am this morning and will close at 8pm this evening on the ballot question concerning the repeal of the state law permitting gay marriage.

Recent Posts:
State of the Race: New Jersey Governor (11/2/09)

State of the Race: New Jersey Governor (11/1/09)

State of the Race: Virginia Governor (11/1/09)

Tuesday, March 31, 2009

NY-20: Does a Tie Mean the Nation is Brutally Divided?

If a Tedisco win meant the beginning of a Republican comeback nationally and a Murphy win meant the nation is on-board with the Obama administration, what does a 65 vote margin with 610 of 610 precincts reporting (and a few thousand absentee ballots to be counted) mean?

[Click for Election Results via The Saratogian]

There's only one answer to that: elections are fun!

UPDATE: As per Jack, via The Saratoagian, it's now down to a 25 vote Murphy edge in NY-20.
[Click to Enlarge]

Recent Posts:
All Eyes on NY-20

Public Financing, Dead?

Florida in 2012: A Companion Bill

All Eyes on NY-20

[Click Map to Enlarge]

FHQ has been quiet on this one, which is unusual for an elections site. But special elections are nice. For elections nerds like myself, they are a welcome respite from the dark period between regularly scheduled elections. However, it is difficult to apply lessons learned from past special elections to any new one that comes along simply because the circumstances from one special election to the next (or from a general election to a special election) vary so widely.

The congressional special elections in the winter and spring of 2008 were nice in that all of them were conservative districts that broke toward the Democrats. There was something of a trend that could be parsed from that; a trend that culminated with Obama winning the White House and Democrats increasing their majorities in Congress. But it's easy to read too much into these specials. For one thing, they aren't always successfully nationalized. Often they hinge on state or local quirks. Scott Murphy is attempting to nationalize the NY-20 special by linking Jim Tedisco to the likes of Rush Limbaugh, Sarah Palin and George W. Bush. And Tedisco, for his part, is running away from national Republicans despite leaning on NRCC money. In the context of decreasing poll numbers, that's never really a good sign.

Can we extrapolate anything from those poll numbers, though? Given that there have only been six polls* conducted (three of them partisan), there isn't a whole lot of information out there. What those polls do tell us is that the trend has been toward Murphy. He has gained 8 points from poll to poll in the Siena sequence of polls and has a lead that is right around the margin of error to slightly above it.

But drawing anything anymore substantive than that from those numbers is a fool's errand. [Just look back to the Georgia Senate runoff for one such example.] Specials always come down to turnout. And with this race being so closely scrutinized on the national level, polling could either energize Republicans (in a Republican-leaning district) to head out to their nearest polling station or it could, given the current trend and the potential perception of reality, keep them away. For Democrats, it is a question of whether they are still as motivated as they were in November when Obama won the district by three points and incumbent Democratic congresswoman (turned senator), Kirsten Gillibrand, took over three-fifths of the vote.

But, does the tide wash a little further up the beach or has it already begun receding? That's what the media will be talking about tonight when the polls close at 9pm, but in special elections it is rarely that black and white. The results will do a better job of telling us whether Murphy was able to successfully nationalize this race.

*You'll have to back out to Pollster's front page to see the information on the sixth poll; the third one conducted by the DCCC.

Recent Posts:
Public Financing, Dead?

Florida in 2012: A Companion Bill

NPR's 2012 Bracket Results (2nd Round) Are Now Up