This isn't complete yet because of the 2nd district in Nebraska (...and Missouri, though it is shaded), but I wanted to go ahead and put it up. It is nice to the see the states gradually fill in. I'll update this and re-post it when everything else falls in line.
Recent Posts:
Frontloading and The Rules in 2008: The Maps
What About Nebraska's 2nd District?
The Georgia Senate Runoff
Friday, November 7, 2008
Frontloading and The Rules in 2008: The Maps
I took part in a forum on the [then] upcoming election earlier in the semester and put together some maps on the frontloading that took place prior to primary and caucus season kicking off on January 3. [My, how those ten months flew by!] There is also a map of the differing rules between the parties governing how delegates are allocated. I should have put these up at the time, but I was more concerned with another map at the time.
This first map lays out which states moved and which states stayed put. It needs another layer to it indicating the states that were already early, but that will be a map for a different time. The real message to take away is that there was a ton of movement this cycle compared to some other recent cycles. The striped states are states where just one party opted to move its contest. All were caucus states (at least for the contests moved). The opposite party in each case chose to stick with the state funded primaries, but had later contests as a result.
[Click Map to Enlarge]
Now let's look at contest type. First, the Democrats. The darker blue states are primary states while the lighter states are the caucuses. Obviously the number of caucuses is dwindling, but it is interesting to see where they are location-wise. Maine is the only state east of the Mississippi that continues to hold a caucus over a primary. Every other caucus state is in the heartland, from the upper midwest into the southwest. Florida and Michigan take on the stripes for obvious reasons. Both held primaries that were initially not counted in terms of delegate allocation. Texas is different because of its primary-caucus set up on the Democratic side.
[Click Map to Enlarge]
And the GOP? Well, the same trends that apply to the Democrats apply here also. Nebraska and New Mexico had Republican primaries and Democratic caucuses while West Virginia held a Republican convention and a Democratic caucus. Washington, like Texas on for the Democrats, has a hybrid primary-caucus system. But instead of playing out over the course of one day, as in Texas, the system stretched out over ten days. The caucus, which determined 51% of the delegates, was held on February 9 while the state's primary followed on February 19 and settled the remaining 49% of the delegates.
[Click Map to Enlarge]
Finally, let's dig a little bit deeper into the delegate allocation rules. It is one thing to discuss the type of contest, and while the Democrats mandate a proportional distribution of delegates based on the vote in each state, the GOP leaves it up to the state parties to decide how they will allocate delegates regardless of whether the state has a primary or caucus as its mode of delegate selection. The dark red states below are the ones the McCain campaign targeted -- the winner-take-all states. His wins in most of those winner-take-all states on Super Tuesday (California, New York, New Jersey and Missouri) all but assured the Arizona senator of the GOP nomination. Meanwhile, Mitt Romney seemingly took the Obama caucus strategy route, but without any of the benefits. All those caucus states from the map above are states -- due to that system -- which allocate delegates proportionally. That made it even more difficult for Romney or anyone else to catch McCain in the delegate count. Trading winner-take-all states for proportional ones on the Republican side is not a recipe for success.
[Click Map to Enlarge]
But GOP delegate allocation isn't a black and white issue. There were a handful of states that used a combination of proportional and winner-take-all systems to dictate how the delegates were divvied up between the candidates. The most common combination was for delegates to be awarded on both the state and county/congressional district level. Within a county or congressional district delegates were allocated on a winner-take-all basis while the statewide delegates would be determined based on whether the leading candidate exceeded a certain percentage threshold -- usually 50%. If that bar was cleared the candidate got all the statewide delegates and if not, they were allocated proportionally.
Let me close by addressing 2012 frontloading briefly. Unless President Obama completely tanks, the Democratic nomination will be uncontested four years from now. With just one contested nomination -- on the Republican side -- the amount of frontloading should diminish. We would expect this regardless of the number of nominations at stake simply because over half the country is already "early". If nothing is done to reform the system in the interim, though, there could be rogue states like Florida and Michigan but we would expect tat they would be predominantly Republican states since that party's nomination is the one at stake.
As I get more into dissertation writing mode over the next few months, there will likely be follow ups here (with maps of course.).
Recent Posts:
What About Nebraska's 2nd District?
The Georgia Senate Runoff
Obama is the Unofficial Winner of North Carolina
This first map lays out which states moved and which states stayed put. It needs another layer to it indicating the states that were already early, but that will be a map for a different time. The real message to take away is that there was a ton of movement this cycle compared to some other recent cycles. The striped states are states where just one party opted to move its contest. All were caucus states (at least for the contests moved). The opposite party in each case chose to stick with the state funded primaries, but had later contests as a result.
[Click Map to Enlarge]Now let's look at contest type. First, the Democrats. The darker blue states are primary states while the lighter states are the caucuses. Obviously the number of caucuses is dwindling, but it is interesting to see where they are location-wise. Maine is the only state east of the Mississippi that continues to hold a caucus over a primary. Every other caucus state is in the heartland, from the upper midwest into the southwest. Florida and Michigan take on the stripes for obvious reasons. Both held primaries that were initially not counted in terms of delegate allocation. Texas is different because of its primary-caucus set up on the Democratic side.
[Click Map to Enlarge]And the GOP? Well, the same trends that apply to the Democrats apply here also. Nebraska and New Mexico had Republican primaries and Democratic caucuses while West Virginia held a Republican convention and a Democratic caucus. Washington, like Texas on for the Democrats, has a hybrid primary-caucus system. But instead of playing out over the course of one day, as in Texas, the system stretched out over ten days. The caucus, which determined 51% of the delegates, was held on February 9 while the state's primary followed on February 19 and settled the remaining 49% of the delegates.
[Click Map to Enlarge]Finally, let's dig a little bit deeper into the delegate allocation rules. It is one thing to discuss the type of contest, and while the Democrats mandate a proportional distribution of delegates based on the vote in each state, the GOP leaves it up to the state parties to decide how they will allocate delegates regardless of whether the state has a primary or caucus as its mode of delegate selection. The dark red states below are the ones the McCain campaign targeted -- the winner-take-all states. His wins in most of those winner-take-all states on Super Tuesday (California, New York, New Jersey and Missouri) all but assured the Arizona senator of the GOP nomination. Meanwhile, Mitt Romney seemingly took the Obama caucus strategy route, but without any of the benefits. All those caucus states from the map above are states -- due to that system -- which allocate delegates proportionally. That made it even more difficult for Romney or anyone else to catch McCain in the delegate count. Trading winner-take-all states for proportional ones on the Republican side is not a recipe for success.
[Click Map to Enlarge]But GOP delegate allocation isn't a black and white issue. There were a handful of states that used a combination of proportional and winner-take-all systems to dictate how the delegates were divvied up between the candidates. The most common combination was for delegates to be awarded on both the state and county/congressional district level. Within a county or congressional district delegates were allocated on a winner-take-all basis while the statewide delegates would be determined based on whether the leading candidate exceeded a certain percentage threshold -- usually 50%. If that bar was cleared the candidate got all the statewide delegates and if not, they were allocated proportionally.
Let me close by addressing 2012 frontloading briefly. Unless President Obama completely tanks, the Democratic nomination will be uncontested four years from now. With just one contested nomination -- on the Republican side -- the amount of frontloading should diminish. We would expect this regardless of the number of nominations at stake simply because over half the country is already "early". If nothing is done to reform the system in the interim, though, there could be rogue states like Florida and Michigan but we would expect tat they would be predominantly Republican states since that party's nomination is the one at stake.
As I get more into dissertation writing mode over the next few months, there will likely be follow ups here (with maps of course.).
Recent Posts:
What About Nebraska's 2nd District?
The Georgia Senate Runoff
Obama is the Unofficial Winner of North Carolina
What About Nebraska's 2nd District?
As Rob pointed out in the comments section, the electoral vote for Nebraska's 2nd district is still undecided. You can see in the live blog from Tuesday evening [/Wednesday morning] that I made some mention of whether the whole slate of electoral votes in the Cornhusker state would go for McCain or be split in any way. However, I didn't account for that. Basically, I didn't have time to edit that into the map (...and probably should have made that change yesterday, but didn't) on Tuesday night.
The latest is that there were in excess of 10,000 early votes yet to be counted with McCain holding around a 600 vote lead. That hasn't changed since yesterday, and there doesn't appear to be any deadline or time at which we can expect to know the result (as with those Rockingham County votes in North Carolina the other day).
[Click Map to Enlarge]
With that in mind, we'll pull that electoral vote off the board and we'll color it in when the results are official. It appears as if Obama will take the district, though. If we focus on just those early votes -- and not the additional 5000+ provisional ballots -- if Obama gets the same 61% of the vote that he received throughout the rest of the early voting in the state/district (That isn't clear, but I suspect that refers to the district instead of statewide.), then the president-elect stand to gain about 2400 votes. Enough to pass John McCain, in other words.
Recent Posts:
The Georgia Senate Runoff
Obama is the Unofficial Winner of North Carolina
More on North Carolina: UPDATE
The latest is that there were in excess of 10,000 early votes yet to be counted with McCain holding around a 600 vote lead. That hasn't changed since yesterday, and there doesn't appear to be any deadline or time at which we can expect to know the result (as with those Rockingham County votes in North Carolina the other day).
[Click Map to Enlarge]With that in mind, we'll pull that electoral vote off the board and we'll color it in when the results are official. It appears as if Obama will take the district, though. If we focus on just those early votes -- and not the additional 5000+ provisional ballots -- if Obama gets the same 61% of the vote that he received throughout the rest of the early voting in the state/district (That isn't clear, but I suspect that refers to the district instead of statewide.), then the president-elect stand to gain about 2400 votes. Enough to pass John McCain, in other words.
Recent Posts:
The Georgia Senate Runoff
Obama is the Unofficial Winner of North Carolina
More on North Carolina: UPDATE
Thursday, November 6, 2008
The Georgia Senate Runoff
There hasn't been a whole lot of talk around here during this cycle devoted to races other than the presidential race. [I don't think there are too many people that are complaining about this.] However, with the Senate race here in the Peach state heading for a December 2 runoff between incumbent Saxby Chambliss and Jim Martin, I thought it appropriate to shift the focus to the one remaining high profile race anyone's campaigning for.
[It certainly isn't the only undetermined race at this point. There will be a recount in Minnesota's senate race and the Ted Stevens' situation in Alaska makes that one worth watching if only for more speculation about who would potentially fill his shoes if he were to win and be forced out of office. Sarah Palin, I'm looking in your direction. The former VP choice on the GOP side won't have direct appointment powers on a replacement because the two conflicting laws Alaska has on the books call for a special election within 90 days. However, what is not known is if the governor has the power to appoint someone on an interim basis for that period of time. We'll have to hold off on that speculation for now, but part one -- Stevens winning -- looks likely.]
But back to Georgia...
So what do we know about this race? I could tell you, but I better show you with a map first.
[Click Map to Enlarge]
Sure, that doesn't tell you anything more than you already knew. Chambliss spent the evening of November 4 watching his percentage in the vote returns creep closer and closer to the 50% plus one vote mark that the candidates had to avoid in order to prevent a runoff. And the incumbent Republican missed it by .2%. That aside, though, Georgia likely won't become the center of the political universe for the next month since the Democrats won't get to 60 seats in the Senate, and unless the Minnesota recount overturns the apparent result -- and I can't think if a case where a recount led to a anyone other than the original projected winner winning -- then the best the Democrats can hope for is 59. And Ted Stevens will have something to say about that.
Like Al Franken in that recount in Minnesota, Jim Martin will have a difficult time getting over the hump in Georgia. But let's talk a little about where the former state senator will have to do well between now and December 2. The first thing we can do is look at where the race was close but favored Chambliss on Tuesday. But let's filter that through where Lt. Governor Mark Taylor did well in 2002. Why Mark Taylor and not Max Cleland? To start, Taylor won in 2002 when Cleland did not. But Taylor was also the last Democrat to win a statewide office this high. Where the former lt. governor did well six years ago -- in a Republican-leaning election -- would add quite a few more counties to the map, but when you factor in how well Martin did on Tuesday in some of those south Georgia counties, you only end up with a handful of additional areas to potentially target. If you look at the map below, those are the counties in white. And all of them share a border with a county that went for Martin (except Turner County which borders another potential target county, Ben Hill County).
[Click Map to Enlarge]
Well, let's not leave that 2002 Cleland-Chambliss senate race out of the equation altogether. We can add one other layer to this by asking where Chambliss won on Tuesday that he did not six years ago. Again, we can add a few more counties to the list (the ones in gray above), but none of them, other than Seminole County in the far southwest corner of the state were within 13 points on Tuesday night. In other words, they just aren't viable targets for Martin.
The flip side of the coin on this is that there are also areas where Martin outperformed Cleland and could be vulnerable in the runoff. Oddly enough, there are six counties in this category (those in light blue) to counterbalance the six counties where Chambliss exceeded his own numbers from 2002. That is somewhat problematic for Martin and throws it back to those white counties. The problem there is that while there were seven close counties that favored Chambliss a couple of days ago, there were 18 close counties where Martin edged out the incumbent. And as we saw in the presidential race, if any momentum develops toward the end of the race, the potential that all the close areas break for the momentum-possessing candidate increases. By that measure, Martin clearly had some level of momentum on Tuesday; if only Obama's coattails.
But Martin won't have those coattails on December 2, but he will have to face the challenges described above as well as to overcome what is likely to be a rather significant drop in the turnout rate. The last time that there was a Senate runoff in Georgia under this 50% plus one vote law was the Wyche Fowler-Paul Coverdale race in 1992. Fowler, an incumbent Democrat, won the first round, but lost to Coverdale in the runoff when turnout decreased by 44.31%. Not only will Martin have to gain ground on an incumbent in some of the counties above (and likely more), but he'll have to get out the vote in a more efficient way than Saxby Chambliss. Paul Coverdale did come from behind, but for Martin, the state isn't trending toward the Democrats in 2008 the way it was moving toward the Republicans in 1992.
President-elect Obama could still be the wildcard here. But will the incentive be there to intervene without a 60th, filibuster-proof seat on the line?
Recent Posts:
Obama is the Unofficial Winner of North Carolina
More on North Carolina: UPDATE
What's the Matter with North Carolina?
[It certainly isn't the only undetermined race at this point. There will be a recount in Minnesota's senate race and the Ted Stevens' situation in Alaska makes that one worth watching if only for more speculation about who would potentially fill his shoes if he were to win and be forced out of office. Sarah Palin, I'm looking in your direction. The former VP choice on the GOP side won't have direct appointment powers on a replacement because the two conflicting laws Alaska has on the books call for a special election within 90 days. However, what is not known is if the governor has the power to appoint someone on an interim basis for that period of time. We'll have to hold off on that speculation for now, but part one -- Stevens winning -- looks likely.]
But back to Georgia...
So what do we know about this race? I could tell you, but I better show you with a map first.
[Click Map to Enlarge]Sure, that doesn't tell you anything more than you already knew. Chambliss spent the evening of November 4 watching his percentage in the vote returns creep closer and closer to the 50% plus one vote mark that the candidates had to avoid in order to prevent a runoff. And the incumbent Republican missed it by .2%. That aside, though, Georgia likely won't become the center of the political universe for the next month since the Democrats won't get to 60 seats in the Senate, and unless the Minnesota recount overturns the apparent result -- and I can't think if a case where a recount led to a anyone other than the original projected winner winning -- then the best the Democrats can hope for is 59. And Ted Stevens will have something to say about that.
Like Al Franken in that recount in Minnesota, Jim Martin will have a difficult time getting over the hump in Georgia. But let's talk a little about where the former state senator will have to do well between now and December 2. The first thing we can do is look at where the race was close but favored Chambliss on Tuesday. But let's filter that through where Lt. Governor Mark Taylor did well in 2002. Why Mark Taylor and not Max Cleland? To start, Taylor won in 2002 when Cleland did not. But Taylor was also the last Democrat to win a statewide office this high. Where the former lt. governor did well six years ago -- in a Republican-leaning election -- would add quite a few more counties to the map, but when you factor in how well Martin did on Tuesday in some of those south Georgia counties, you only end up with a handful of additional areas to potentially target. If you look at the map below, those are the counties in white. And all of them share a border with a county that went for Martin (except Turner County which borders another potential target county, Ben Hill County).
[Click Map to Enlarge]Well, let's not leave that 2002 Cleland-Chambliss senate race out of the equation altogether. We can add one other layer to this by asking where Chambliss won on Tuesday that he did not six years ago. Again, we can add a few more counties to the list (the ones in gray above), but none of them, other than Seminole County in the far southwest corner of the state were within 13 points on Tuesday night. In other words, they just aren't viable targets for Martin.
The flip side of the coin on this is that there are also areas where Martin outperformed Cleland and could be vulnerable in the runoff. Oddly enough, there are six counties in this category (those in light blue) to counterbalance the six counties where Chambliss exceeded his own numbers from 2002. That is somewhat problematic for Martin and throws it back to those white counties. The problem there is that while there were seven close counties that favored Chambliss a couple of days ago, there were 18 close counties where Martin edged out the incumbent. And as we saw in the presidential race, if any momentum develops toward the end of the race, the potential that all the close areas break for the momentum-possessing candidate increases. By that measure, Martin clearly had some level of momentum on Tuesday; if only Obama's coattails.
But Martin won't have those coattails on December 2, but he will have to face the challenges described above as well as to overcome what is likely to be a rather significant drop in the turnout rate. The last time that there was a Senate runoff in Georgia under this 50% plus one vote law was the Wyche Fowler-Paul Coverdale race in 1992. Fowler, an incumbent Democrat, won the first round, but lost to Coverdale in the runoff when turnout decreased by 44.31%. Not only will Martin have to gain ground on an incumbent in some of the counties above (and likely more), but he'll have to get out the vote in a more efficient way than Saxby Chambliss. Paul Coverdale did come from behind, but for Martin, the state isn't trending toward the Democrats in 2008 the way it was moving toward the Republicans in 1992.
President-elect Obama could still be the wildcard here. But will the incentive be there to intervene without a 60th, filibuster-proof seat on the line?
Recent Posts:
Obama is the Unofficial Winner of North Carolina
More on North Carolina: UPDATE
What's the Matter with North Carolina?
Wednesday, November 5, 2008
Obama is the Unofficial Winner of North Carolina
Here's the story from the News and Observer. I'll have a map up in a while. The state won't become official until the provisional ballots are counted next month.
[Click Map to Enlarge]
Recent Posts:
More on North Carolina: UPDATE
What's the Matter with North Carolina?
Voting in Athens, GA: A Small Pictorial
[Click Map to Enlarge]
More on North Carolina: UPDATE
The News and Observer out of Raleigh is reporting that there are 18,000 ballots to be counted in McCain-leaning Rockingham County (in white below). McCain would have to get about 83% of those votes to tie or surpass Barack Obama and that would run above the proportion of votes has gotten in the county thus far. CNN has Rockingham County at 57%-42% in favor of McCain. If McCain gets 57% of those remaining 18,000 votes, he would only gain about 2000 votes on Obama and that won't close the gap nearly enough. Word out of Rockingham County is that they will have those counted by 5pm this evening. 30 minutes from now.
[Click Map to Enlarge]
So, it wasn't as dire as waiting a couple of days for provisional ballots to be sifted through.
...yet.
But we are getting closer to calling North Carolina.
UPDATE: There have been 26,000 new votes added to the tally at NBC and they have broken about half and half but slightly favor Obama (by 900 votes). And that obviously isn't cutting into that lead Obama has. NOTE: I have no idea if any of these 26,000 encompass any of the 18,000 Rockingham votes alluded to above.
Recent Posts:
What's the Matter with North Carolina?
Voting in Athens, GA: A Small Pictorial
Missouri to McCain
[Click Map to Enlarge]So, it wasn't as dire as waiting a couple of days for provisional ballots to be sifted through.
...yet.
But we are getting closer to calling North Carolina.
UPDATE: There have been 26,000 new votes added to the tally at NBC and they have broken about half and half but slightly favor Obama (by 900 votes). And that obviously isn't cutting into that lead Obama has. NOTE: I have no idea if any of these 26,000 encompass any of the 18,000 Rockingham votes alluded to above.
Recent Posts:
What's the Matter with North Carolina?
Voting in Athens, GA: A Small Pictorial
Missouri to McCain
What's the Matter with North Carolina?
The Charlotte Observer is reporting today that the hold up in North Carolina is because of the counting of provisional ballots.
[Click Map to Enlarge]
This is what happens when a typically reliable partisan state suddenly becomes competitive. He-e-e-e-y-y-y, what about Virginia or Indiana? Virginia wasn't that close yesterday and Indiana had a close contest dry run during the Democratic primaries. North Carolina? The Tar Heel state wasn't contested on the Republican side and Barack Obama won the state going away. The North Carolina Board of Election's first run under competitive circumstances was last night.
Recent Posts:
Voting in Athens, GA: A Small Pictorial
Missouri to McCain
Open Thread: The Morning After
"With all precincts counted, Obama leads McCain by about 11,000 votes out of more than 4.2 million cast. But state Elections Director Gary Bartlett said Wednesday morning that a small number of provisional ballots must be counted in the coming days."A couple of days?
[Click Map to Enlarge]This is what happens when a typically reliable partisan state suddenly becomes competitive. He-e-e-e-y-y-y, what about Virginia or Indiana? Virginia wasn't that close yesterday and Indiana had a close contest dry run during the Democratic primaries. North Carolina? The Tar Heel state wasn't contested on the Republican side and Barack Obama won the state going away. The North Carolina Board of Election's first run under competitive circumstances was last night.
Recent Posts:
Voting in Athens, GA: A Small Pictorial
Missouri to McCain
Open Thread: The Morning After
Voting in Athens, GA: A Small Pictorial
Here are a few shots of democracy at work in Athens, GA yesterday. Actual democracy at work not shown. As I said during the results live blog last night, we weren't allowed to take any pictures inside the room with the voting machines. But Hillary Clinton can campaign mere feet from voting booths? Political science can only take you so far. Apparently taking pictures inside a polling station are beyond that point. And for the record, I did play the "I'm a political scientist" card.
Here's our polling station at Fire Station #7. See, no line. Well, not at 3:30pm in the afternoon. At 7:30am the line was out the door and around to the right there. The ladies checking IDs [Yeah, Georgia has one of those ID laws on the books too.] said that that traffic flow continued into the 11 o'clock hour and died down some after lunch.
[Click to Enlarge]
Poll working at its finest. Things had slowed down enough by the time that we got there to vote that these two poll workers could be greeters. The gentleman even walked over with my kids and let them hop on the back one of the many painted, plaster [Georgia] bulldogs around town.
[Click to Enlarge]
And finally, here is the door to the infamous Room of Democracy. They had 8 machines set up in there; an increase over the 4 or 6 they had four years ago. They had also added a nice provisional ballot station for this election. That certainly worked better than pulling those folks aside like they did in 2004 and loudly discussing where they were supposed to be.
[Click to Enlarge]
Bonus Picture: Yeah, that's me.
...as Joe the Plumber on Halloween. In the end I decided to take my own costume advice and go with Joe. Plus, I thought it would be nice for everyone to put a face with the name. Admittedly, it is a stupid looking face here, but I don't photograph very well, especially with a plunger by my side. There's a reason I'm an academic.
[Click to Enlarge]
Thanks to the good folks at Paisley Pictures for providing the pictures.
Recent Posts:
Missouri to McCain
Open Thread: The Morning After
Election Night Liveblog and Open Thread
Here's our polling station at Fire Station #7. See, no line. Well, not at 3:30pm in the afternoon. At 7:30am the line was out the door and around to the right there. The ladies checking IDs [Yeah, Georgia has one of those ID laws on the books too.] said that that traffic flow continued into the 11 o'clock hour and died down some after lunch.
[Click to Enlarge]Poll working at its finest. Things had slowed down enough by the time that we got there to vote that these two poll workers could be greeters. The gentleman even walked over with my kids and let them hop on the back one of the many painted, plaster [Georgia] bulldogs around town.
[Click to Enlarge]And finally, here is the door to the infamous Room of Democracy. They had 8 machines set up in there; an increase over the 4 or 6 they had four years ago. They had also added a nice provisional ballot station for this election. That certainly worked better than pulling those folks aside like they did in 2004 and loudly discussing where they were supposed to be.
[Click to Enlarge]Bonus Picture: Yeah, that's me.
...as Joe the Plumber on Halloween. In the end I decided to take my own costume advice and go with Joe. Plus, I thought it would be nice for everyone to put a face with the name. Admittedly, it is a stupid looking face here, but I don't photograph very well, especially with a plunger by my side. There's a reason I'm an academic.
[Click to Enlarge]Thanks to the good folks at Paisley Pictures for providing the pictures.
Recent Posts:
Missouri to McCain
Open Thread: The Morning After
Election Night Liveblog and Open Thread
Missouri to McCain
NBC is reporting that Missouri has gone for McCain. Let's color the Show-Me state in.
[Click Map to Enlarge]
Recent Posts:
Open Thread: The Morning After
Election Night Liveblog and Open Thread
FHQ's Final Electoral College Map (11/4/08)
[Click Map to Enlarge]Recent Posts:
Open Thread: The Morning After
Election Night Liveblog and Open Thread
FHQ's Final Electoral College Map (11/4/08)
Open Thread: The Morning After
Well, I'm going to have a hard time breaking it off with Election '08 after a nearly two year long relationship. But I'm keeping my eyes peeled for the next one, Election '12, I think it's called.
I've got to say, it feels strange not to have a new map to put up this morning or to be working on. There were a lot of maps up between the close of the conventions and yesterday. I'll update those posts from yesterday to include the polls and other graphics a little later today and will have a nice real versus predicted Electoral College Spectrum comparison when the results are finalized in these last few states. And I'll obviously update the maps to reflect any changes there when they occur.
Let's update things a bit for the morning before I open it up to comments.
Indiana: NBC and FOX have called it for Obama. CNN is still holding out. I suspect that NBC and FOX have it right.
Missouri: NBC -- as S.D. just pointed out -- has become the first to call the Show-Me state for McCain. No one else is following suit.
...yet.
North Carolina: The Tar Heel state looks to be following Indiana on this one, but early votes are the outstanding portion of the vote at the moment. I haven't heard or seen this anywhere, but I also wonder if there are some military votes from the military bases in the state that may still be out. I would suspect if it was just early votes, they'd perhaps go ahead and make a call since that is likely to favor Obama. Military votes, on the other hand, would be expected to go in the other direction.
Speaking of military votes, does anyone know how that shook out last night? I remember reading that the contributions from military sources this time around was much more competitive in 2008 than it had been in the past, but I'm curious to see if that translated into votes in any way.
And one more question: Are Indiana, Missouri and North Carolina states where an automatic recount is triggered if the race is within a certain margin? Missouri certainly looks like a candidate for one and North Carolina could too once the final votes come in.
Thoughts on that or anything else? The comments section is now open.
Recent Posts:
Election Night Liveblog and Open Thread
FHQ's Final Electoral College Map (11/4/08)
Election Protection
I've got to say, it feels strange not to have a new map to put up this morning or to be working on. There were a lot of maps up between the close of the conventions and yesterday. I'll update those posts from yesterday to include the polls and other graphics a little later today and will have a nice real versus predicted Electoral College Spectrum comparison when the results are finalized in these last few states. And I'll obviously update the maps to reflect any changes there when they occur.
Let's update things a bit for the morning before I open it up to comments.
Indiana: NBC and FOX have called it for Obama. CNN is still holding out. I suspect that NBC and FOX have it right.
Missouri: NBC -- as S.D. just pointed out -- has become the first to call the Show-Me state for McCain. No one else is following suit.
...yet.
North Carolina: The Tar Heel state looks to be following Indiana on this one, but early votes are the outstanding portion of the vote at the moment. I haven't heard or seen this anywhere, but I also wonder if there are some military votes from the military bases in the state that may still be out. I would suspect if it was just early votes, they'd perhaps go ahead and make a call since that is likely to favor Obama. Military votes, on the other hand, would be expected to go in the other direction.
Speaking of military votes, does anyone know how that shook out last night? I remember reading that the contributions from military sources this time around was much more competitive in 2008 than it had been in the past, but I'm curious to see if that translated into votes in any way.
And one more question: Are Indiana, Missouri and North Carolina states where an automatic recount is triggered if the race is within a certain margin? Missouri certainly looks like a candidate for one and North Carolina could too once the final votes come in.
Thoughts on that or anything else? The comments section is now open.
Recent Posts:
Election Night Liveblog and Open Thread
FHQ's Final Electoral College Map (11/4/08)
Election Protection
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