Showing posts with label election results. Show all posts
Showing posts with label election results. Show all posts

Friday, November 13, 2020

The Electoral College Map (11/13/20) -- 306-232

Update for the afternoon of November 13.


The final calls were made on Friday afternoon with Georgia's 16 electoral votes going to Biden and North Carolina's 15 to Trump. That brings the final 2020 electoral vote tally to Biden 306, Trump 232, the exact same final total in 2016 but on opposite sides of the partisan line. 

The scorecard for FHQ was similar to the 2008 projection when we missed on Indiana, North Carolina and Nebraska's second congressional district. Then, the polls-based projection understated Obama's strength. But in 2020 the projection understated President Trump's position in several states through the lens of the state-level polls. So whereas in 2008 the polls lagged behind the eventual winner's performance, in 2020, the issue was the opposite: running in front of the eventual winner. Although the FHQ projection had President-elect Biden winning Florida, Maine's second congressional district and North Carolina, he fell short in all three. 

But FHQ will have a more robust rundown of how the projection in the days to come. For now, the wait is on for state-level certification, the Electoral College vote in December, the congressional count in early January and inauguration on January 20, 2021. All that will occur in the next 68 days.


Thursday, November 12, 2020

The Electoral College Map (11/12/20) -- Biden Adds Arizona

 Update for the evening of November 12.


Another batch of counted votes out of Arizona was enough to push President-elect Biden over the the top in the Grand Canyon state on Thursday night. Biden claims the state's 11 electoral votes -- the first time for a Democratic nominee since Bill Clinton won the state in 1996 -- after President Trump ran out of uncounted ballots to realistically (mathematically) eliminate the narrow deficit separating him and his successor.

Georgia and North Carolina now stand as the only uncalled states. The Peach state enters a hand-counted recount on Friday. Results in North Carolina are now imminent. Counties across the Tar Heel state will finalize their unofficial counts throughout the day on Friday following the deadline on Thursday (November 12) for mail-in ballots postmarked by election day to arrive.


Wednesday, November 11, 2020

The Electoral College Map (11/11/20) -- Alaska Raises Trump's Total

 Update for the morning of November 11.


New tranche of counted ballots in the Last Frontier puts Alaska in President Trump's column. 

Biden leads in Arizona (no consensus call) and Georgia (uncalled with upcoming hand recount) while Tump has the edge in North Carolina (uncalled but results likely after November 12 deadline for mail-in ballots to arrive).

To this point, the 2020 map looks like the 2016 map with the exception of Biden flips in Michigan, Nebraska's second congressional district, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.


Saturday, November 7, 2020

The Electoral College Map (11/7/20) -- Biden Tops 270

 Update for November 7 (afternoon).


Calls in Pennsylvania and Nevada in relatively quick succession put former Vice President Biden over the top.


Friday, November 6, 2020

The Electoral College Map (11/6/20) -- Morning Update

Update for the morning of November 6.


No calls on Thursday, but...
Trump continued to gain ground in the vote count in Arizona.
Biden overtook Trump in the vote count in Georgia.
Biden continued to gain ground in the vote count in Pennsylvania.


Wednesday, November 4, 2020

Friday, November 16, 2012

2012 Electoral College Wrap Up, Part 2

FHQ will have much more on this later, but we wanted to get the final results through the lens of our map and the Electoral College Spectrum up before too much time passed.



The 2012 Electoral College Spectrum1
HI-4
(7)2
IL-20
(163)
IA-6
(243)
IN-11
(154)
KS-6
(59)
VT-3
(10)
ME-4
(167)
PA-20
(263)
SC-9
(143)
AL-9
(53)
RI-4
(14)
WA-12
(179)
CO-93
(272/275)
MS-6
(134)
KY-8
(44)
NY-29
(43)
OR-7
(186)
VA-13
(285/266)
AK-3
(128)
NE-5
(36)
MD-10
(53)
NM-5
(191)
OH-18
(303/253)
MT-3
(125)
AR-6
(31)
MA-11
(64)
MI-16
(207)
FL-29
(332/235)
TX-38
(122)
WV-5
(25)
CA-55
(119)
MN-10
(217)
NC-15
(347/206)
LA-8
(84)
ID-4
(20)
DE-3
(122)
WI-10
(227)
GA-16
(191)
SD-3
(76)
OK-7
(16)
CT-7
(129)
NV-6
(233)
MO-10
(175)
ND-3
(73)
WY-3
(9)
NJ-14
(143)
NH-4
(237)
AZ-11
(165)
TN-11
(70)
UT-6
(6)
1Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney had won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Obama's toss up states), he would have gained 275 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would have needed in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics.


3
Colorado is the state where Obama crossed the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

Final FHQ projection.



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Wednesday, November 5, 2008

Obama is the Unofficial Winner of North Carolina

Here's the story from the News and Observer. I'll have a map up in a while. The state won't become official until the provisional ballots are counted next month.
[Click Map to Enlarge]
Recent Posts: More on North Carolina: UPDATE What's the Matter with North Carolina? Voting in Athens, GA: A Small Pictorial

More on North Carolina: UPDATE

The News and Observer out of Raleigh is reporting that there are 18,000 ballots to be counted in McCain-leaning Rockingham County (in white below). McCain would have to get about 83% of those votes to tie or surpass Barack Obama and that would run above the proportion of votes has gotten in the county thus far. CNN has Rockingham County at 57%-42% in favor of McCain. If McCain gets 57% of those remaining 18,000 votes, he would only gain about 2000 votes on Obama and that won't close the gap nearly enough. Word out of Rockingham County is that they will have those counted by 5pm this evening. 30 minutes from now.
[Click Map to Enlarge]

So, it wasn't as dire as waiting a couple of days for provisional ballots to be sifted through.

...yet.

But we are getting closer to calling North Carolina.

UPDATE: There have been 26,000 new votes added to the tally at NBC and they have broken about half and half but slightly favor Obama (by 900 votes). And that obviously isn't cutting into that lead Obama has. NOTE: I have no idea if any of these 26,000 encompass any of the 18,000 Rockingham votes alluded to above.


Recent Posts:
What's the Matter with North Carolina?

Voting in Athens, GA: A Small Pictorial

Missouri to McCain

What's the Matter with North Carolina?

The Charlotte Observer is reporting today that the hold up in North Carolina is because of the counting of provisional ballots.
"With all precincts counted, Obama leads McCain by about 11,000 votes out of more than 4.2 million cast. But state Elections Director Gary Bartlett said Wednesday morning that a small number of provisional ballots must be counted in the coming days."
A couple of days?
[Click Map to Enlarge]

This is what happens when a typically reliable partisan state suddenly becomes competitive. He-e-e-e-y-y-y, what about Virginia or Indiana? Virginia wasn't that close yesterday and Indiana had a close contest dry run during the Democratic primaries. North Carolina? The Tar Heel state wasn't contested on the Republican side and Barack Obama won the state going away. The North Carolina Board of Election's first run under competitive circumstances was last night.


Recent Posts:
Voting in Athens, GA: A Small Pictorial

Missouri to McCain

Open Thread: The Morning After

Missouri to McCain

NBC is reporting that Missouri has gone for McCain. Let's color the Show-Me state in.

[Click Map to Enlarge]


Recent Posts:
Open Thread: The Morning After

Election Night Liveblog and Open Thread

FHQ's Final Electoral College Map (11/4/08)