Election Night Liveblog and Open Thread

3:08am: It is fitting that the remaining two states to be decided were the closest of all the states in our averages. I'll end on that note for now. I'll be back later to tie up some of the loose ends.

What a night/morning! Thanks for clicking over.

3:01am: There goes Montana for McCain.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

2:59am: Well, that 8am class is calling. Let's stroll through those three two remaining states one last time and I'll leave it there for the night before returning to wrap things up tomorrow.

Missouri: 99% in: McCain has opened up a slightly wider lead; a couple thousand votes.
Montana:
North Carolina: Still "100%" in but those numbers have been stationary for quite a while now.

2:53am: CNN looks as if they have given all of Nebraska to McCain. That Omaha district was the closest, but Maine and Nebraska will once again allocate all their electoral votes to one candidate each.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

2:31am: Wow! 78 votes separate Norm Coleman and Al Franken in that Minnesota senate race. There may be a recount in Missouri in the presidential race, but that North Star state senate race is a lock.

2:30am: Will we have another call? No. That was a big tease from NBC. Cued up the music and everything.

2:27am: McCain's lead in Missouri is down to 398 votes. Yeah, this is getting into Florida 2000 territory. Actually, it is getting into Missouri territory. Both the Democratic and Republican primaries this past year were extremely close and the last several senate races in the state have been really tight.

2:24am: Montana is slipping away for Obama. What had been an early lead has changed into a McCain lead of 50-47 with about 80% of the precincts in.

2:21am: Nate Silver is calling North Carolina the best bet of the remaining four states (prior to the Indiana call). That lead seems like it will be able to hold up with all counties in.

2:17am: Both candidates have 50% in North Carolina and just more than 12,000 votes separate them with Obama ahead.

2:09am: Indiana to Obama. Wow, did Karl Rove get it wrong. 338 electoral votes!?! Who comes up with this stuff! What that means is that McCain will not crack the 200 electoral vote threshold.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

2:08am: Just 554 votes separate McCain and Obama in Missouri with 99% reporting in the Show-Me state.

1:47am: I just went over to the secretary of state's website for North Carolina. The Tar Heel state's outstanding votes seem to be early/absentee. All 100 counties have reported with no county "partially reporting." Incidentally, Obama is still ahead there.

1:45am: Saxby has left the building. The Georgia senator seems to think that the remaining precincts and absentee votes will break evenly but that we likely won't know until later in the morning whether they'll will be a runoff.

1:39am: Alaska has been called for McCain by NBC.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

1:12am: Does anyone out there know what is happening in the states concerning their 2012 primaries and caucuses? Oh, you'll be hearing more about it here.

1:04am: With 99% of the precincts reporting in both Indiana and North Carolina, Obama is ahead 50-49. With a slightly smaller percentage of precincts reporting, Missouri (94%) has McCain up 50-49 as well. In Montana, both candidates are now under 50% and Obama is clinging to a one point 49-48 lead. Still no word out of Alaska.

12:57am: Alaska's polls will be closed statewide as of 1am.

12:55am: 97% are in here in Georgia and Chambliss is now down to 51%. Martin needs to get that under 50% plus one vote to force that runoff. Martin likely needed to be the one in Chambliss's position tonight to be in good shape for December.

12:46am: The story here in the Peach state is that they are shifting into the counting of early votes and absentee ballots to see if the race will have a runoff.

12:40am: I'm still here. Keeping tabs on this Georgia senate race. Chambliss is dropping toward that 50% mark.

12:09am: "A new era of service and sacrifice."

12:05am: Let's have a look around at which states are still out:
North Carolina: 96% reporting: Obama 50% McCain 49%
Missouri: 86% reporting: McCain 50% Obama 49%
Montana: 29% reporting: Obama 52% McCain 45%
Indiana: 97% reporting: Obama 50% McCain 49%

Those are all tight except for Montana, which seems to be coming in slow. Granted, the Treasure state spotted the others at least an hour and a half. But still.

12:02am: Ooh, and Scranton gets a shout out. Who woulda thunk it?

12:01am: A nod to the service and sacrifice of John McCain.

11:59pm: Oh, polls in Alaska are about to close.

11:57pm: And here comes the 44th President of the United States onto the stage at Grant Park.

11:42pm: Nevada to Obama. Well, that's 338 folks. Our graduated weighted averages have gotten us this far. As S.D. has mentioned in the comments, North Carolina is still very tight and has shifted over to McCain at this point. We'll have to see how all the rest of it shakes out.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

11:29pm: CNN has Arizona going for McCain and the entirety of Nebraska's 5 electoral votes going to McCain. That pushes the Arizona senator's tally to 152 electoral votes.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

11:28pm: McCain is still uncomfortable with the negativity. He obviously doesn't like the booing of Obama-Biden during his speech.

11:20pm: NBC just pushed Florida into the blue column for Obama. That's 333 and only Nevada away from matching the FHQ map. Or is that the Karl Rove map?

[Click Map to Enlarge]

11:13pm: And there goes Colorado for Obama. That breaks the 300 electoral vote barrier. That's the first time that has happened in three elections.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

11:08pm: Add Hawaii and Virginia to Obama's tally and Idaho and South Dakota to McCain total. That's 297-142. NBC is showing 146 for McCain right now with Nebraska, I guess, giving 4 electoral votes to McCain. Could one of those congressional districts move into Obama's column?

[Click Map to Enlarge]

11:00pm: NBC calls the election for Obama on the strength of calls in all three west coast states. That's 280 electoral votes for the Illinois senator. I'll hold off on coloring Florida in.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

10:59pm: The AP calls Florida for Obama.

10:50pm: North Carolina, Indiana, Virginia and Missouri are all really close. And only Virginia was off the recent Watch Lists, having pushed into the Obama lean category.

10:31pm: The stars at night are big and bright! Fill in the blank. Texas goes to McCain. Along with the Magnolia state further east, McCain has a clean sweep of the Deep South states. But Obama has only really been competitive in those peripheral south states like Virginia and North Carolina. By the way, Virginia looks much closer than our averages have projected. But the recent polling had only just started to come back from that nine and ten point high a couple of weeks back.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

10:19pm: Iowa and New Mexico to Obama and Arkansas, Kansas, Louisiana and Utah turn red. It should be noted that two of the closest states from both four and eight years ago -- Iowa and New Mexico went rather quickly tonight for Obama. It has looked that way in the polling for a while now, but that has been quite a shift in those two states.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

10:12pm: I should have made an announcement before I headed out, but I'm back at the electoral vote counting, Rovian bat cave now. And fortunately so. Everyone was sucking up the bandwith where I was and I quickly grew tired of slow load times. Zipping around now.

I've got some catching up to do. Hold on just a moment and I'll put another set of maps up.

9:40pm: As I was just saying to Rob in the comments, anything for Obama on the McCain side of the victory line (Colorado) on the Electoral College Spectrum is crippling to McCain. It is over. The 44th president of the United States is Barack Obama. Well, it was during the 9 o'clock hour. So, I had that right in the scenario analysis earlier today.

9:34pm: Unless there is a McCain surprise out there -- and I don't see one -- it is over. Ohio to Obama.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

9:27pm: West Virginia to McCain. Mark another one off.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

9:16pm: Georgia to McCain. So much for competition in the Peach state. A political scientist can hope, can't he.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

9:00pm: And now with the 9 o'clock closings, Obama is up to 175, adding Minnesota, Wisconsin New York, Rhode Island and Michigan. As I just heard, it has been all good news for the Dems and nothing good for the Republicans. Well, McCain got North Dakota and Wyoming. Mark those off the list.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

8:59pm: Alabama to McCain. 103-43 for Obama.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

8:49pm: It has gone down hill fast here. If you look at the post I had earlier today on election night scenarios, once you factor in all of the strong states that Obama should win (those with polls still open), he is sitting at 264 electoral votes. So when I say Virginia or Colorado and it is over. It really is.

8:39pm: Pennsylvania to Obama. That's two of the three states. Virginia and it will be over. But I don't expect the Old Dominion for a while.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

8:30pm: At the bottom of the hour, one of the three states I mentioned before, broke for Obama. New Hampshire stays blue in 2008 (the only state to turn blue in 2004).

[Click Map to Enlarge]

8:24pm: Obama edges ahead in the count, adding Maine, Massachusetts, Connecticut, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware, DC and Obama's home of Illinois. McCain adds Tennessee and Oklahoma. Obama 77- McCain 34. No surprises so far.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

8:22pm: Well, here comes North Carolina at 8:30. Oh, and Arkansas

8:11pm: Well, the CNN lady in Grant Park is yelling at me. I suppose it is loud there.

8:00pm: South Carolina to McCain, according to CNN. No surprises there.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

7:55pm: Well, the clock is approaching the 8 o'clock hour. There are lots of closings then. Which to keep an eye on? Pennsylvania and Missouri. I don't expect a quick call on Pennsylvania. But that is one of the three early states to watch. If any of the Virginia, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire group is called soon, we'll start getting an indication of how the evening will go.

7:50pm: I'm assuming those early returns in South Carolina are coming in from the Low Country. Obama will not win the Upstate. That much I can tell you. Sorry to disappoint Upstate Obama fans.

7:45pm: Well, I guess we have our answer on West Virginia. A little too early, I suppose.

I just spoke with my sister in Charleston, SC and she waited in line for four hours this afternoon. She was dismayed to learn that my wait was but 4 seconds. Oh well. We did take some pictures at the polling place at Firehouse #7 here in Athens, GA, but were brutally rebuffed when we tried to get an inside shot of the machines. Couldn't even shoot the room. The pictures that we (my wife) were able to take should hopefully come my way later this evening. I'll post them when I have them. They're ever so exciting.

7:29pm: We are approaching 7: 30 and that means time for Ohio and West Virginia to close up shop. Do we have a wait on West Virginia or will it be an easy call for McCain?

7:22pm: I should also add that NPR called Vermont for Obama.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

7:12pm: Alright, I'm in position. Hunkered down and ready to go. Or is that fired up; ready to go! One of those. Well, I should take a moment to talk a little bit about how we'll be calling things tonight (since ) NPR did the same on the way over here. I'm not in this to be first, so I'll wait until someone else (a reputable source) has made a call before putting a new map up. NPR has handed Kentucky to John McCain and I'll have that one up shortly.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

6:47pm: I'm off to my undisclosed location for the next few hours. I should have checked before now, but hopefully they have wi-fi. If not it will be a short stay before I head back to the electoral vote counting batcave. Back in a few.

6:11pm: And we're off! The first round of poll closings have begun in Indiana and Kentucky. No call yet from the networks on Kentucky. Either they are showing a surprising amount of restraint or Kentucky's close. I'm going with the former.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

This should be a fun night. The comments section is open so have at it. Oh, if you haven't had a chance yet, go and check out the final electoral college map. It is just the map. I'll have the Spectrum, polls and other graphics up sometime tomorrow. It has been a whirlwind day. I can't believe The Fix said election day was usually boring. Boo! Anyway, the big news was that Nevada moved into the Obama lean category.


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FHQ's Final Electoral College Map (11/4/08)

[NOTE: The map you see below is FHQ's final electoral college prediction. For a look at the final results, click here.]

[Click Map to Enlarge]

Nevada moves into the Obama lean category.


Recent Posts:
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An Election Night Scenario Analysis, Part II

Final Update: The Electoral College from a Different Angle

Election Protection

If you haven't already, check out Election Protection for alerts on the voting problem spots today. I don't want to make light of this, but notice how there aren't any reports on Idaho or Vermont right now. It's all Florida and Michigan and Virginia and Missouri and Georgia (!?!) on there.

Thanks to friend of FHQ, Brad Collins, for the link.


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An Election Night Scenario Analysis, Part II

Yesterday FHQ examined how this evening would progress given the poll closing times and what we know about the competitiveness in each state. Here are those assumptions again:

1) All strong states are able to be called as soon as the polls close in those states.
2) All lean states have an hour lag before they are called.
3) All toss up states with an FHQ average over 2 points have a three hour lag before they are called.
4) All toss up states with an FHQ average under two points have a four hour lag before they are called.

Given those assumptions we can project that Obama will wrap things up about 11pm this evening. But we can handicap this scenario some. We know, for instance, that, despite the late closing times, California will go for Obama and Idaho/Utah will hand McCain their electoral votes. So let's remove that first assumption and factor all the strong states as states that have already decided for their respective candidates. Based on the McCain campaign's final weekend itinerary, we know that they are targeting New Hampshire and Pennsylvania. For the sake of this exercise then, let's assume that both are lean states. If we consult our Electoral College Spectrum, we know that the would give Obama 239 electoral votes and McCain would be spotted 137.

Before the first polls even close, this is what the map would look like:

[Click Map to Enlarge]

Between 6pm and 7:30pm polls close in Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Ohio, Virginia and West Virginia. But we don't add anything to the map just yet. Those are all still wait and see states.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

However, at 8pm we can slide Georgia and West Virginia into the McCain total and Virginia into Obama's tally. Now the Illinois senator is within 18 electoral votes of victory.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

An hour later, Colorado's polls close, but if we are assuming that Pennsylvania and New Hampshire are lean states, then Obama would cross the 270 threshold around that time.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

Early on in the evening then, we will have a very good idea based on how quickly Virginia, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania break who the next president of the United States is.

A very big thanks to Paul Gurian for the suggestion on this one.


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Final Update: The Electoral College from a Different Angle

Let's take one final look at the Electoral College via the 50% Rule from Scott. For those who missed the first few versions, you can find the first here and the updates here and here. Here's the premise (...from the original post):

There are two basic questions being asked:
1) Is one of the candidates above the 50% mark in a state currently?

2) Has one of the candidates been the only one to surpass 50% in any reputable state poll?
If the answer is yes to both, then that implies there has been some consistency to the candidate being or having been over 50% in those averages. Those are the states that are designated solid states for either McCain or Obama.

If the answer to the second question is yes but the answer to the first question is no, that state is a lean state. In other words, there is some potential there for one of the candidates to cross that threshold. It has happened before. However, that support has either waned and is dormant or is latent in the current period.

If the answers to both questions are no, then that state is a toss up according to this metric. In this scenario, neither candidate has demonstrated the level of support in the polls to translate to an outright win in the state. As Scott put it:

"The idea is that if a state consistently polls 50-47, regardless of the methodology of the poll or the state of the national race, it's very hard for the trailing candidate to win. But if a state has a lot of polls like 46-40, but the leading candidate never breaks 50, the trailing candidate has a chance."

He added:
"There are two different ways a state can end up a toss-up. One is to have neither candidate reach 50 in any poll since McCain became the presumptive nominee. The other is to have both candidates do it, but to have neither break 50 in the pollster.com average."

Finally, Scott includes a couple of caveats to this last update:
"There have been two important changes in methodology for this last map, both designed to make it more sensitive to more recent information:

• The "more sensitive" setting was used at Pollster.com.
• To determine "lean" states, I only looked at polls taken between the first debate and now."

And how does this change things on the map?

Changes (Oct. 27- Nov. 3)
State	Before	After
Nevada	Obama lean	Strong Obama
Ohio	Strong Obama	Obama lean
Rhode Island	Obama lean	Toss Up
North Dakota	McCain lean	Toss Up
South Dakota	McCain lean	Strong McCain

Here's the analysis from Scott:
"Probably the most important changes from the last map are that Ohio has slipped to an Obama lean, but Nevada has firmed up to a solid state for Obama. That still leaves Obama with 287 solid electoral votes, well above the threshold for the Presidency.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

"North Dakota and Rhode Island have slipped to toss up status. For North Dakota that may be legitimate; a recent Research 2000 poll shows McCain up 47 to 46. Rhode Island, on the other hand, is almost certainly an artifact of some strange recent polls by local outifts; the last three show 19, 24, and 26% of the voters still undecided. They also show double-digit leads for Obama, so don't think that Rhode Island is really in play.

"On McCain's side of the ledger, Georgia and South Dakota have firmed up for him again, but that will be small solace for the Republicans [tonight]."


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NOTE: In the interest of time, I'm going to keep this short. [I'll also add in the polls a little later on, but I wanted to get this up.]

On the last full day of campaigning before election day on Monday, we were treated to a mountain of new polling. In all, there were 52 new polls from 20 states and they gave us a relatively clear picture of what to expect today. Now, we shouldn't get wrapped up in one day's worth of polling on Election Eve anymore than we should after, say, the conventions, but once those polls are factored in to FHQ's graduated weighted average of all the polls in a state since Super Tuesday, we get a pretty good idea of where the candidates are relative to each other in each of the states.

On Election Day, that idea looks a lot like an Obama victory. There is actually no movement on Obama's side of the partisan line today, but Georgia slips out of the strong McCain category and into the McCain lean area. Will the Peach state move even more toward Obama once the votes are cast today and tabulated this evening? Possibly. The Pollster trend line is very instructive. McCain is moving down and Obama is moving up. The only question is whether Obama is actually able to pass McCain today or whether, if that trend line continued on its current course, that would happen if the election were next Tuesday instead of today. Well, that's why we cast our votes. We'll see soon enough.

Changes (Nov. 3)
State	Before	After
Georgia	Strong McCain	McCain lean

Still, centering in on just those strong Obama states provides some insight. As we've said, the Illinois senator is just six electoral votes shy of 270 with those strong states alone. All he has to do is pick up Colorado or Virginia or Nevada or Ohio or Florida. Obama could even lose Pennsylvania and add Colorado and Virginia to win.

...or Ohio.

...or Florida.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

In other words, Obama is poised to become the 44th President of the United States. There was no November surprise. [Well, this coal thing could prove consequential at the margins, but that hardly qualifies as a surprise.] And the only things left unknown are turnout and the Bradley effect.

Will turnout be as high or higher than expected? Well, as I went past our polling station to catch the bus this morning, the line was out the door, around the building and into the fire truck garage at Athens Firehouse #7. But it was like that on a misty morning four years ago as well.

Will there be an above average Bradley effect? As we've shown, an average Bradley effect just won't do it for McCain. It would be closer, but Obama would likely emerge victorious.

The Electoral College Spectrum* -- (11/4/08)
HI-4 (7)**	ME-4 (157)	NM-5 (264/279)	ND-3 (160)	SC-8 (66)
VT-3 (10)	OR-7 (164)	CO-9*** (273/274)	WV-5 (157)	KY-8 (58)
NY-31 (41)	WA-11 (175)	VA-13 (286/265)	GA-15 (152)	TN-11 (50)
DE-3 (44)	NJ-15 (190)	NV-5 (291/252)	AZ-10 (137)	KS-6 (39)
IL-21 (65)	IA-7 (197)	OH-20 (311/247)	SD-3 (127)	NE-5 (33)
RI-4 (69)	MN-10 (207)	FL-27 (338/227)	MS-6 (124)	AL-9 (28)
MD-10 (79)	WI-10 (217)	MO-11 (349/200)	AR-6 (118)	WY-3 (19)
MA-12 (91)	PA-21 (238)	NC-15 (364/189)	LA-9 (112)	ID-4 (16)
CA-55 (146)	MI-17 (255)	IN-11 (375/174)	TX-34 (103)	UT-5 (12)
CT-7 (153)	NH-4 (259)	MT-3 (163)	AK-3 (69)	OK-7 (7)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Obama's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 274 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***Colorado is the state where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. It is currently favoring Obama, thus the blue text in that cell.

That said, the junior senator from Illinois stands to gain 338 electoral votes when all the votes are counted if our map is correct. However, as we've discussed in light of recent polling, Obama can extend that number if this turns into a wave election. It wouldn't be unexpected if Obama swept the toss up states on both sides of the partisan line and stretched into the McCain lean states. Is that likely? Well, not as likely as Obama winning those states up to the partisan line (where light blue turns to pink), but it is certainly possible. Missouri is as close to a tie as it can get right now -- by our measure and in recent polling. Both the Show-Me state and North Carolina are within where Florida is on the opposite side of the line and with the way the momentum is heading, seem more likely candidates to change sides than the Sunshine state. Essentially the further you go into the red or blue the less likely it is that Obama or McCain, respectively, are able to peel off those states from their opponent.

The Watch List*
State	Switch
Arizona	from Strong McCain	to McCain lean
Florida	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up McCain
Georgia	from McCain lean	to Strong McCain
Michigan	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
Missouri	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
Nevada	from Toss Up Obama	to Obama lean
Montana	from McCain lean	to Toss Up McCain
New Hampshire	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
New Mexico	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
North Carolina	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
Ohio	from Toss Up Obama	to Obama lean
Virginia	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
West Virginia	from McCain lean	to Strong McCain
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Today's Watch List is, well, superfluous. It appears that some last-minute Zogby polls will be the last ones to incorporate into FHQ's averages. However, what the list does now is provide an idea of where these states are in relation to the various lines of demarcation.


What's on tap for today at FHQ?
1) We've got an update from Scott on his 50% Rule Electoral College Map.
2) I'll have the final map update up mid-afternoon.
3) FHQ is lucky enough to be married to a photographer. I may talk her into bringing the camera with us to vote today. If so, I'll post the pictures.
4) I will also tweak the Election Night Scenario Analysis.
5) Last but not least, I'll be liveblogging election night. And yeah, I'll have some nice chronological maps to look at for years to come, so that we have a record of the evening's progression. One thing we lack from the networks is what that looks like. To them, once a state is colored in that's it.

I hope to see everyone here this evening and if you haven't already, go on out and vote. It's election day! Or as someone told me in a surprised voice on the bus this morning, "Oh, it's president day!"

It sure is.

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Open Thread: Election Day! AM Edition

Alright folks. The long haul ends today. [Well, the action that will trigger the end is over tonight. The ultimate decision make take a while to emerge.] While you wait on the new map -- and I'll likely have two out today -- I thought I'd open it up for people to weigh in with their thoughts on this election day morning.

• Have you voted? If not, when will you?
• What are your predictions?
• What state will be a surprise win for Obama? ...for McCain?

I'll be back shortly.


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An Election Night Scenario Analysis

I've seen this done on a couple of other sites, but let's assume, just for the heck of it, that FHQ is right and Obama wins the presidency by a 338-200 count in the electoral college. Well, how would Tuesday night play out if each of the 50 states plus DC broke the way our map shows? If you use the poll closing times that The Green Papers has posted, then the evening would likely progress something like below.

[Why post one map with all the different times when you can post 10 of them?]

First let's make a few basic assumptions:
1) All strong states are able to be called as soon as the polls close in those states.
2) All lean states have an hour lag before they are called.
3) All toss up states with an FHQ average over 2 points have a three hour lag before they are called.
4) All toss up states with an FHQ average under two points have a four hour lag before they are called.

One hour before the first polls close, we'll start with a blank slate.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

Indiana and Kentucky start the night off with 6pm closings in the Eastern time zone areas of their states. I won't do this for any of the other states, but I'm going to assume that the networks will want something to talk about early. Even without all the polls in Kentucky closed, they'll call the Bluegrass state for McCain. Indiana? Well, it'll be a bit longer.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

Though Georgia may make it into the lean area after this final day, it is still a strong state here. As such Georgia and South Carolina join Kentucky as early states going for McCain. Add Vermont to Obama's tally at 7pm and put Virginia into the wait and see category. Like Indiana an hour earlier, Florida has a first wave of closings in the Eastern time zone. The count at 7pm: 31-3, McCain.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

At 7:30pm Ohio and West Virginia close their polls. If 2004 and the primaries earlier this year are any indication, then there will likely be an extension of the polling hours in the Buckeye state. However, both of these states are outside of the strong category and will have a wait before being called for either candidate.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

If 7pm brought a mini-wave of closings, 8pm brings the first big wave of the evening. Illinois, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Virginia (after the hour lag) move into the Obama column, opening up a small lead for the Illinois senator. McCain adds a couple of states from the Deep South and Oklahoma. Missouri, meanwhile is placed in the wait and see category for the time being.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

Thirty minutes later, Arkansas moves into the red for McCain and North Carolina holds off until later.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

At 9pm, New York and Texas cancel each other out, but Obama adds Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Wisconsin while McCain gets Arizona, Louisiana and a handful of mountain west and prairie states. Colorado's polls close, too, but a call will wait for an hour. Obama's tally approaches 200 and McCain breaks 100 electoral votes.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

At 10pm Obama adds Colorado and Iowa as McCain grabs Kansas. Polls close in Montana and Nevada as well, but both will have to wait for a call as a lean state and toss up state respectively.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

Already at 209, Obama adds the west coast states at 11pm but Florida and Ohio also break for the Illinois senator. That big rush of electora votes puts Obama over the top and he becomes the 44th president.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

At midnight, Alaska's polls close and brings the day to a close with only a few polling sites still open in the Last Frontier and Nevada and North Carolina outstanding. Both go for McCain in the wee hours of November 5.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

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The Electoral College Map (11/3/08)

Happy Election Eve everyone! Yes, that's right, there's only one more day in this campaign (...except if it's not the last day. Buckle up Floridians!). FHQ has been at it nearly as long as Barack Obama has been in the race. My intent was not to follow him but to keep up with the movement of primaries and caucuses, as that effort was ramping up in the late winter/early spring of 2007 when this blog started. Anyway, something tells me folks aren't clicking their way over to read a history of this blog.

How about that race for the Whate House? Well, FHQ has not weighed in with an official gut/heart prediction, but as I said yesterday in the examination of other predictions out there, our 338-200 electoral vote tally is not likely to change between now and tomorrow. Florida continues to slightly favor Obama in the polls out Monday morning, North Carolina is drifting back toward McCain and Missouri is as close to a draw as it is going to get (...if our methodology is to be believed). Those are the only three states where a category switch would mean a shift in the electoral vote totals for either candidate and it doesn't look like any of the three will move from where they are now. [But I could be wrong. We're likely to get a lot of polling today.]

Those three states aside, FHQ's current electoral vote distribution is basically equivalent to the average of twenty other predictions now. Is that where we think things will end up tomorrow? I don't know, but my gut is telling me to stand by the statistics behind our map as a guide. I'll hopefully have something more official up in the morning.

New Polls (Nov. 2)
State	Poll	Margin
Colorado	Mason-Dixon/NBC	+5
Illinois	Rasmussen	+22
Kentucky	Survey USA	+16
Maine	Rasmussen	+13
Minnesota	Star Tribune	+11
Missouri	Mason-Dixon/NBC	+1
Nevada	Mason-Dixon/NBC	+4
New Mexico	Albuquerque Journal	+8
North Carolina	Mason-Dixon/NBC	+3
Ohio	Mason-Dixon/NBC	+2
Pennsylvania	Rasmussen	+6
Pennsylvania	Survey USA	+7
Virginia	Survey USA	+4
Virginia	Public Policy Polling	+6

Regardless, Sunday brought 14 new polls from 12 states. And yes, Mason-Dixon shows McCain ahead in Missouri, Ohio and North Carolina, the latter two in which Obama has been ahead in recent polling. However, Obama hadn't been ahead in any of the previous Mason-Dixon polls of those three states. It should be said that Missouri held firm at +1 for McCain since the last Mason-Dixon poll and both North Carolina and Ohio moved toward McCain by 3 and 1 points, respectively. In fact, among that series of Mason-Dixon polling, the lead the firm showed for Obama in Virginia represented the first such lead in the state for the Illinois senator from Mason-Dixon.

Changes (Nov. 2)
State	Before	After
New Mexico	Obama lean	Strong Obama

Speaking of Virginia, the Old Dominion along with Pennsylvania both appear to be in the midst of a waning campaign narrowing effect. Both states (or commonwealths) had flirted with or surpassed the ten point mark in recent polling, but have since seen that as a peak that has given way to a mid- to upper single digit group of polls in each. Neither, though, is at risk of switching categories at this point. Virginia is still solidly within the Obama lean category and Pennsylvania is too far into the strong Obama category to reverse now.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

But, as I said, the 338-200 electoral vote distribution today is the same as it was a day ago. Obama's strong category was bolstered by the re-addition of New Mexico as day after the PPP poll of the Land of Enchantment work its way out of the most recent poll status. The Illinois senator is back up to 264 electoral votes in his strong category, just six electoral votes shy of what is needed to win. Claim Colorado and it is over. Of course, I'm sure the Obama campaign has its sights set on something a bit further beyond the victory line than that. And from the looks of the other predictions and the shifting of the MSM discussion to the Senate races, that's likely to be the case. How likely? Well, we'll know sometime tomorrow.

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4 (7)**	ME-4 (157)	NM-5 (264/279)	MT-3 (160)	AK-3 (61)
VT-3 (10)	OR-7 (164)	CO-9*** (273/274)	WV-5 (157)	KY-8 (58)
NY-31 (41)	NJ-15 (179)	VA-13 (286/265)	GA-15 (152)	TN-11 (50)
DE-3 (44)	WA-11 (190)	NV-5 (291/252)	AZ-10 (137)	KS-6 (39)
IL-21 (65)	IA-7 (197)	OH-20 (311/247)	SD-3 (127)	NE-5 (33)
RI-4 (69)	MN-10 (207)	FL-27 (338/227)	MS-6 (124)	AL-9 (28)
MD-10 (79)	WI-10 (217)	MO-11 (349/200)	AR-6 (118)	WY-3 (19)
MA-12 (91)	PA-21 (238)	NC-15 (364/189)	LA-9 (112)	ID-4 (16)
CA-55 (146)	MI-17 (255)	IN-11 (375/174)	TX-34 (103)	UT-5 (12)
CT-7 (153)	NH-4 (259)	ND-3 (163)	SC-8 (69)	OK-7 (7)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Obama's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 274 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***Colorado is the state where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. It is currently favoring Obama, thus the blue text in that cell.

Right now, McCain either has to sweep the toss up states and win Virginia and Colorado or he has to sweep the toss up states and win Pennsylvania. That probably isn't the ideal number of paths to 270 for McCain. Things looked much better for the Arizona senator pre-Lehman.

The Watch List*
State	Switch
Arizona	from Strong McCain	to McCain lean
Florida	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up McCain
Georgia	from Strong McCain	to McCain lean
Michigan	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
Missouri	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
Nevada	from Toss Up Obama	to Obama lean
New Hampshire	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
New Mexico	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
North Carolina	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
Ohio	from Toss Up Obama	to Obama lean
Virginia	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
West Virginia	from McCain lean	to Strong McCain
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Still, if you are watching the polls today, keep an eye on all the toss up states but pay particular attention to Florida, Missoui and North Carolina. If there are to be any electoral vote changes here before tomorrow it will come from some combination of those states.

Last Day!


Recent Posts:
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The Electoral College Map (11/2/08)

The Electoral College Map (11/1/08)