Tuesday, June 9, 2009

Virginia is for Voters: Results Edition

The results are coming in for the Democratic gubernatorial primary (and have been for well over an hour now). Just like last week, Jack was at the ready to provide us with a link to the results online.

Thus far, Creigh Deeds is doing his best to outdo even the best of the recent polling forecasts. Did I really say he'd underperform those numbers? Nah, that couldn't have been me. Oh.

June 11, 12:36pm: The final unofficial numbers are in:
Deeds finished up with just under half the total vote cast in Tuesday's primary. The state senator and Democratic gubernatorial candidate was 729 votes shy of that 50% mark.

10:42pm: Deeds' surge extended beyond votes. Google searches of the three candidates over the last thirty days are indicative; not to the level of recent polling or of the vote tonight, but indicative of Deeds supplanting McAuliffe as frontrunner in the race for the nomination.

10:16pm: While we await the results from the final five precincts, Christian Heinze over at GOP12 has some 2012 implications for us to ponder based on who is likely to be a McDonnell supporter:
"From a 2012 perspective, you can expect even more 2012 candidates to fundraise and stump for McDonnell, as they advance their message by advancing McDonnell's."
"It's been said many times, but only because it's true -- the 2009 race has big 2012 implications."

9:53pm: Parts of Isle of Wight County and Suffolk City in the 4th, parts of Mecklenburg in the 5th, one precinct in Alleghany County in the 6th and another portion of Alleghany County in the 9th are all still out at this point. Looking at the votes in already in those areas, it likely won't be enough to push Deeds over the 50% barrier.

9:38pm: Just eight precincts remain to be incorporated into the final unofficial tally, but we should note that of the 11 Virginia congressional districts, Deeds won 10. Terry McAuliffe won the 3rd (Richmond and Norfolk) by less than 1000 votes out of over 37,000 cast.

Deeds has been able to win everywhere in this primary, but can that success be extended statewide in the general? This is not a bad way to start. He may have done well enough to make his victory -- and not McAuliffe's polling collapse -- the story coming out of tonight. That won't hurt as the general election campaign begins.

9:34pm: Deeds is up to 49.79% with almost all precincts in. Whether the new Democratic nominee breaks 50% + 1 vote may be the most exciting counting of the night in this race. And no, that's not a good thing for McAuliffe or Moran.

9:24pm: Deeds' percentage was slowly declining toward 49%, but it has climbed back up to 49.49% with nearly 99% reporting. Will he get that majority? Like the 60 seats in the Senate, it won't matter much since the result is so decisive.

9:19pm: Nate Silver's got McDonnell or Deeds in the thick of 2012 and 2016 VP buzz given Virginia's new status as a swing state (see comment at 8:37pm on 538.). Who does that three or seven years in advance? Oh, I see.

9:11pm: Nevermind. Huckabee's got a new goal for McDonnell now that the Republican gubernatorial candidate cleared 5000 Facebook supporters. "...lets start new goal 10,000 by Friday at midnight."

9:10pm: On a related note, Mike Huckabee tweets: "Please help @bobmcdonnell reach 5,000 fans on FB by midnight..." Another sign of the changing dynamics of political campaigns.

9:06pm: Google Blast? Times, they are a-changin' on the campaign front.

...in case you didn't know.

And remember folks, the 2009 uses of this web ad-buying technique are just test runs for 2010 and 2012. Just think of where things can go in just three more years.

9:02pm: Deeds is not only going to win, but he'll approach a 50% majority in a three candidate race. And with nearly 95% of precincts in, turnout might just hit 6%.

8:55pm: A few thoughts on the upcoming campaign from a comment earlier in the day:
"McDonnell has won statewide and is popular, but that win was by .01% or 323 votes. Let's say McDonnell's popularity gives him, what, a 5?, 10? point boost relative to that 2005 outcome. To what extent is that offset by the growth in registration between 2005 (4.4 million) and 2008 (4.9 million)? My guess is that that growth is more Democratic than it is Republican.

"But that brings us back to the turnout question. Turnout was nearly 45% in 2005 and I'd guess that it would meet or surpass that level this year given the stakes."
8:52pm: Well, perhaps I should have checked the newswire before I started. It may have saved me some typing. Deeds wins. Now we have a rematch of the 2005 attorney general race for November.

8:46pm: This pretty much says it all. Chris Cillizza of The Fix fame cited Fairfax County and Norfolk City as areas to watch as the results rolled in this evening. African American voters in Norfolk were crucial to McAuliffe's chances. Deeds is beating the former DNC chair there. In Fairfax, the populous Northern Virginia hotbed for Democrats, Moran was supposed to minimize Deeds advantage in order for McAuliffe to have chance. The result? Deeds again is prevailing with a portion of the vote closely mirroring his share statewide.

8:41pm: Deeds' home county, Bath County had 830 votes cast (nearly a quarter of all voters in the county). The final tally there? Deeds: 800, McAuliffe: 25, Moran: 5. That isn't a lot of votes, but percentage-wise, that's a home court advantage.

8:32pm: Well, at least turnout broke that 5% barrier.

...but not by much. Hey, there are still 15% of precincts yet to call their results in. We could see 6% turnout. Of course, FHQ should note that without party registration in the commonwealth, Virginia calculates turnout based on the total number of registered voters. Still, that's not a number you'd like to see in any election; democratic or otherwise.

8:20pm: With over 75% of precincts reporting, Deeds is up by a healthy margin. And that may be understating matters.

Recent Posts:
Is a Week Old New? 2012 GOP Primary Poll

Virginia is for Voters

The Calm After the... Well, It Wasn't a Storm.


Jack said...

Boring, boring, boring. We were supposed to have a close, exciting race here. This wasn't Franken-Coleman as much as it was John Barrasso-Nick Carter. Game 6 of the Stanley Cup Finals and the Mets game were both far more exciting. New York state politics are, as usual, far more exciting — I'm not sure that's the best word to use. (Paterson, incidentally, was behind this coup, as the idea of Espada becoming governor if anything happens to Paterson should have most New Yorkers saying an extra prayer every night for the state's chief executive.)

Ed Kilgore on 538 convinced me that this isn't such a terrible thing for the Democrats (I can be convinced of stuff easily sometimes. Ron Paul 2012!) but it would have been more fun if there was a three-way recount, complete with allegations of voter intimidation, fraud, the whole nine yards.

Josh Putnam said...

Boring indeed.

Somehow your recount scenario sounds like a worst case scenario for Democrats.

...but it would be entertaining.

Jack said...

On this blog I put aside all partisan feelings and hope for the most dramatic events possible.

Okay, not really.