Thursday, June 25, 2009

State of the Race: New Jersey Governor (6/25/09)

It has been a couple of weeks, and things still don't really look any different in the race for New Jersey governor. Jon Corzine still trails Chris Christie by nearly ten points in FHQ's graduated weighted average of the race even after a new Strategic Vision poll was released last night. And while that isn't necessarily a death knell for the incumbent Democrat, the fact that all three post-primary polls have had Christie above the 50% mark does not bode well for Corzine. Of course, conventional wisdom continues to tell us that Democrats and some independents will come home to roost in time for the November election. Time will tell. [Recall that the state silhouette above gets bluer/redder depending upon how the average fluctuates. With no decided change since the original version, the color stays as red as it was two weeks ago.]

In the meantime, here is a graphic that ties together the first two iterations of the averaging on this race's polling. As was the case in the Virginia version, this one will look better once we have more polls come out. You have to start somewhere though. Unlike the Virginia example, undecideds in New Jersey are actually following the pattern we'd expect: decreasing as the election draws closer. But we have more polls in the New Jersey race than for Virginia's.

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