Thursday, January 3, 2008

Huckabee takes Iowa...Obama too.

The New Yorks Times blog The Caucus is reporting that Romney has conceded and that's with just fifteen percent of the precincts reporting as of 8:05pm (IA time). On to South Carolina for Huckabee and Romney heads to New Hampshire to try and hold off McCain for the next few days.

For the Dems, it is a tight race. Obama tops the list and Edwards is literally a handful of votes ahead of Clinton with 50% of the precincts in.

UPDATE: Things are still tight on the Democratic side. Obama seems to be pulling away but as of 8:30pm Edwards led Clinton by just three votes. Obama is doing better than expected in conservative area; areas considered to be Edwards' strongholds.

UPDATE: The New York Times is calling the Democratic race for Obama. With 84% of precincts reporting (8:41pm), Obama led with 37% of the vote. Edwards still holds an extremely slim edge over Clinton (just four votes). Let the spin begin from those two camps. The way I read it, a third place finish is a third place finish for Clinton. It will be interesting to see how they play that as the race shifts to New Hampshire.

UPDATE: At 9pm with 92% of the precincts in, Obama-37, Edwards-30 and Clinton-30. Edwards holds a nine vote lead over Clinton.


Robert said...

Looks good for Obama. A win in New Hampshire will make it very difficult for Clinton to capture the nomination. I think she is in a box right now. If she goes negative, then it reinforces what he has been saying all along that we are back to the politics of the 90s. If she doesn't go negative, then it is hard to see him being taken down. I also think she needs to define Bill's role in the next Clinton administration. I don't see how Edwards can compete after New Hampshire unless he wins it outright.

On the Republican side, Huckabee established that he is a viable candidate for the nomination. The winner in NH will also become viable, but it seems that Romney needs a win in both NH & MI to continue to play. I think we are a long way from declaring a nominee in the Republican party. I am not ready to count either Fred or Rudy out just yet, but they each need to win something before Feb. 5.

I believe that the Independents will give victories to Obama and McCain in New HAmpshire.

Josh Putnam said...

Hey Rob. We've missed your input these last couple of days.

In the Iowa postmortem today, the group came to much the same conclusions on both sides. With the third place showing last night, Clinton is in a box in a lot of ways. I see Obama pulling an awful lot of independents into the Democratic primary and potentially delivering him a McCain circa 2000 kind of victory. They were even in the NH polls even before Obama took Iowa.

For the Republicans, NH is shaping up as another Iowa, but between Romney and McCain. Yes, Huckabee is more viable today than he was yesterday, but as we've said in the live group a number of times, he just doesn't play well in NH. The winner of that contest is very well positioned in Michigan whether it is McCain or Romney. I think it'll be McCain as well. Regardless, the winner in NH has a leg up in Michigan which sets up a showdown in SC between Huckabee and the NH/MI winner. The winner there then heads to Florida where Giuliani is waiting. That will be the set up for Super Tuesday the next week. Should the person that makes it to Florida be McCain then Giuliani may be in trouble. McCain would have a lot of momentum and is a similar candidate to Giuliani. That's a long way off though. Well, not that long, but a lot will happen.

Do you think that McCain even needs independents to win in NH? He's already caught up with Romney and in some cases passed him in some NH polls. I just think a lot of those (and I mean a lot) independents are going to break for Obama. But I don't necessarily see that as killing McCain's chances. The momentum seems to be on his side at the right time.

Robert said...

Josh, I agree with what you say. Ed Rollins was on one of the shows I was watching Thursday night and he indicated that Rudy was out of money. If that is the case, he is in deep trouble, because the whole way he can win in the big states is to blanket the airwaves with commercials.

On another note, I thought it was telling that Edwards arrived in NH at 6:30 Friday morning and was giving a speech at 7:00. As of this morning (Saturday)nobody seems to know where Fred Thompson is. I guess he will show up at tonight's debate.

See you Wednesday!

Josh Putnam said...

As if the McCain resurrection wasn't enough, now Giuliani is having financial issues? Ouch. So holing up in Florida isn't so much a strategy as the only option for him.

Edwards cannot waste any time trying to get people to buy into the "Hillary's out, Obama's next" message.

Thompson is busy wrapping up his one delegate in Wyoming today.

Josh Putnam said...

Correction: Thompson got three delegates in Wyoming. Early reporting was bad today. Everyone is in NH I suppose.

Robert said...

Ed Rollins may not be the most reliable source, but if Giuliani is really in financial troubles, that changes the dynamic!

PHGurian said...

Early New Hampshire polls indicate that Obama has moved up 5-10% in New Hampshire while Clinton has slipped a bit. Clinton’s perception as “inevitable” and “unbeatable” has been shaken. However, Clinton still has a substantial following and a strong organization. Frontrunners often lose Iowa but go on to win New Hampshire and the nomination.
Obama got a boost in Iowa. He showed that he’s truly competitive with Clinton and that he can win among white voters. By defeating Edwards, he took a big step toward becoming the alternative to Clinton. Democrats who don’t like Clinton have been divided among several candidates; they may now rally around Obama.
Edwards survived but did not improve his position. He needs to either win or come in a close second in New Hampshire to remain viable.

Romney lost ground in Iowa. If he loses New Hampshire, he’s in serious trouble.
Huckabee got a big boost from the Iowa results. He needs to follow up this victory with a strong showing in New Hampshire or Michigan and a win in South Carolina. New Hampshire is not friendly territory. Huckabee may get a boost from his victory in Iowa but probably not enough to defeat either Romney or McCain there.
McCain benefitted from the Iowa results. McCain needs to win New Hampshire and his main opponent there, Mitt Romney, did poorly in Iowa. That will likely help McCain in New Hampshire. Early New Hampshire polls show McCain with about a slight lead over Romney in New Hampshire, with Huckabee a distant third.
Giuliani’s hope is that no one candidate will emerge from the early contests with momentum. Giuliani is pinning his hopes on Florida and Super Tuesday. So he was probably pleased to see Romney fail to win Iowa. However, that increases the likelihood of McCain winning New Hampshire and gaining momentum.
Fred Thompson survived Iowa, but he’s running last in New Hampshire and is not especially strong anywhere else.

Independents in New Hampshire
New Hampshire has an “open” primary. Since there are a lot of independents in New Hampshire, those voters can make a difference. This year, New Hampshire independents seem to like Obama and McCain.

An average of New Hampshire polls taken January 4-5 show McCain with 33%, Romney with 28%, Huckabee with 11%, and Giuliani with 10%. Among Democrats, Obama has 35%, Clinton 30%, and Edwards 20%. If the results match the polls, Edwards, Romney and Thompson could be on their way out. South Carolina looms large for both parties.

Josh Putnam said...

I'm going to bump your comment in to a stand-alone post.