Showing posts with label results. Show all posts
Showing posts with label results. Show all posts

Tuesday, April 22, 2008

Pennsylvania Results

There's enough "what to watch" stuff going around about what is worth keeping tabs on tonight as the results come in from precincts across Pennsylvania (see here and here). 10 is the number du jour; the number Clinton has to clear tonight to have a fighting chance going forward into Indiana and North Carolina in two weeks. With a new contest come visions of the end game. Anything less than 10 points maintains the status quo and an Obama win likely ends things for Clinton by the end of the week. I've said before that her performance thus far and standing in the delegate count has earned her the right to compete until the last contest has been held, but a loss in Pennsylvania is an ominous sign in light of the $10 million hole her campaign is in according to the recent FEC reports. Those are the stakes on this Earth Day where the record turnout of the 2008 primary season stretched to the Keystone state. On to the results:

10:39pm: Margins and delegates, part II: I'll be back in the morning with more on PA and what's ahead. This should make for an interesting discussion group meeting tomorrow afternoon.

9:37pm: Why is it assumed in media accounts that Hillary voters won't vote for Obama if he is the nominee? The opposite scenario isn't getting as much play because Hillary is playing catch up. This is an interesting question though. Why is the media automatically assuming that Obama running behind among certain groups is ominous for him in the fall? Sure, there are polls to suggest that some among the supporters of each would rather vote for McCain than their favored Democrat's rival for the nomination. Is Clinton closer to McCain than Obama though? This seems like a stretch. In a swing state like Pennsylvania, it may matter. But they aren't saying that. This continues to baffle me as this race continues.

9:32pm: Margin and delegates. That's the focus now. Clinton will talk about the win. Obama will talk about the delegates. Does he dare invoke the name of Huckabee and the idea of the miracle he needed to overtake McCain when the math was up against him? I doubt it, but it is an interesting comparison.

9:17pm: CNN has followed suit on the Clinton projection. The question now? What will the final margin be? That's where the true spin begins.

...and the new bickering too. "Clinton was supposed to win!" "We were outspent and still won!" Voters in North Carolina and Indiana must be so excited. FHQ will be reaching out in the next couple of weeks to satellite members in the North Carolina viewing markets for their take on the ads running there.

9:11pm: ABCNews is calling PA for Clinton. That came out of left field. "Despite Delegate lead Obama can't wrap up nomination" is the secondary headline. I've drawn parallels between this race and the Democratic race in 1980 before. That was in terms of the two years' calendars, though. The two races are similar in other ways too. Jimmy Carter gained something of a comfortable lead in the early going but Ted Kennedy had all the big wins coming down the stretch. The result was an extremely divisive convention an a loss in November. Democrats are hoping history doesn't repeat itself.

9:00pm: What am I saying?!? Of course we know more than we did an hour ago. John McCain has won the Pennsylvania primary. I'm somewhat disappointed given the level of chatter among Ron Paul supporters over the last week. Since my Ron Paul post last week, I've been keeping tabs on the chatter and the news from that end of the Republican Party and a lot of the talk concerned how Paul could win in the Keystone state. I'll have an update on the efforts to secure Paul a presence at September's GOP convention later this week.

8:58pm: Nearly an hour in and we still don't know much more than we did an hour ago. We have some numbers trickling in, but it is still too close for a call from any of the networks.

8:41pm: Ah, numbers. Clinton has opened up a nearly two to one lead on Obama.

...with 2100+ votes counted so far.

8:35pm: This is fun. This just popped up in the sidebar of the live blog over at The Caucus: Is Obama a Mac and Clinton a PC? Unless you've been under a rock for the past two or three years, you are familiar with the Apple ads with the "cool" Mac guy and the "square" PC guy. [I suppose I could have gone with another descriptor for the PC character, but I thought I'd use a 50s/60s throwback.] An interesting parallel to the Democratic race. We could see a reprise in the general election if Obama wraps up the nomination.

8:29pm: As of 8:25, the New York Times Election Guide is still showing 0% reporting. It could be a long night.

8:25pm: The Caucus is reporting that two of the big battleground counties, Bucks and Montgomery (both in suburban Philly) will not have any results until 9pm and 10pm respectively (see the 8pm and 8:20 posts over there). The winner of those counties will be in good shape overall, but we won't know who that is for a while...apparently.

8:20pm: The Drudge Report has 0,000,000 beside each candidates name. Will both candidates surpass one million votes? That is a far cry from four years ago when Pennsylvania was an also-ran and only managed a shade under 800,000 votes in a Democratic primary that was after the point at which Kerry had been crowned the nominee.

8:07pm: ABCNews says it's too close to call. Does that mean a large turnout for Obama in the quick-reporting urban centers? If so, this could go on for a while. Not really what the Clinton camp wants.

8:00pm: I've got eight o'clock here. Polls are closed. Start counting.

7:53pm: Seven minutes to go. The Caucus is running a report from watchdog group, Committee of Seventy, that contends that in the Philly area there are some voter identification/registration problems (see 7:50 post at the Caucus). People who were registered as Democrats were appearing as independents on the voter rolls. That's a problem in a closed primary. Send in the provisional ballots. There aren't any hard numbers as to how widespread the problem is, but that could really be a headache for elections officials in the city of brotherly love.

7:35pm: Something else to pass the time: The Monkey Cage has a new post up discussing a paper looking at momentum in the primaries. The authors, Knight and Shiff find that in 2004 Iowa voters were six times more influential in determining the outcome than Super Tuesday voters. That's a lot of influence for such a representative state. Michigan and Florida just got even angrier.

7:32pm: If you need something to do to pass the next twenty-some odd minutes, head over to the New York Times where they have a delegate scenario calculator for "Clinton's Challenge" over the course of the rest of primary season. You can set her percentage of the vote for the remaining contests and determine the percentage of remaining uncommitted superdelegates she needs to win to take the nomination. A neat little gadget.

7:30pm: Polls close in half an hour.

7:25pm: The most interesting nugget from the exit polls so far is that two-thirds of those surveyed think Clinton hit below the belt in her attacks on Obama. That jibes well with the theory I proposed yesterday: that blame attribution for the negative attacks will go a long way toward deciding who wins in Pennsylvania. Of course, those polls also show few last minute deciders, so it may not have matter much anyway.

7:14pm: I will fall back on my old stand-by sneak peek at the exit polls from The Drudge Report. As of 5pm they had these numbers up (REMEMBER, these are exit polls.):
Clinton 52%
Obama 48
Here's the breakdown among whites, blacks, men and women:
Clinton 55%
Obama 44

Clinton 47%
Obama 53

Clinton 60%
Obama 40

Clinton 8%
Obama 92
None of these numbers are particularly surprising, but it would be interesting to see how things look among different age groups. Remember back to Wisconsin (That was eight weeks ago, two weeks prior to Texas-Ohio.) when Obama was cutting into Clinton's support among women and blue collar workers? Things have changed and Clinton seems to be avoiding that scenario among women at least. Again, these are exit polls so we don't know where the data is coming from or if it is an accurate depiction of the Pennsylvania electorate today. With just four points separating the two, Clinton certainly won't be making up much, if any, ground in the delegate count.

Tuesday, February 19, 2008

It's Your Turn Badger State

My apologies to the good folks in Washington and Hawaii, but even at the level of political addiction that I'm at now won't keep up me up to see results that I know I can find out in the morning. The focus tonight will be on the dual contests in Wisconsin. Here are the particulars:
1) Both parties have open primaries. Independents, independents, independents. Which way will they break? McCain or Obama? The GOP race may appear less consequential to those independents and they may move over to the Obama camp.
2) Same day registration is in effect. New people to the process have been going for Obama since Iowa, so that could be a real boon for him.

9:55pm: I'll be back in the morning with a wrap up on Wisconsin and a discussion of Washington and Hawaii.

9:46pm: This has been a fairly shallow post from an analysis standpoint. However, I'll leave with this one note: Clinton's speech tonight in Ohio is an attempt to cast the Democratic battle as the difference between someone who is more substance than style. As part of that equation, she discusses readiness to be commander-in-chief; that she is the best qualified. Funny then (as The Caucus points out--see their 9:30 post) that Wisconsin exit polls seem to indicate that Badger state voters lean toward Obama on that issue. Clinton has an uphill climb, but the debates renew on Thursday in Ohio for what could be an interesting event.

9:30pm: The counties are lighting up now over at the NYT Election Guide for Wisconsin. The results so far (1% reporting):
Obama 54.3%
Clinton 44.7

McCain 58.7%
Huckabee 33.9

9:26pm: CNN has called Wisconsin for Obama. 2008 is different but this is starting to look like 2000 when Gore and Bush were running up victories in the contests that year. Obama and McCain have had all the fun since last Tuesday.

9:18pm: The AP (via The Drudge Report) has Obama jumping out to a lead against a "fading" Hillary Clinton. Sure, Obama has led in the polls in Wisconsin, but to hit Clinton with fading at the outset hurts. Then again, Obama's ability to cut into Clinton's support among women these last two weeks will do that.

9:07pm: As the McCain link below also indicates, Obama is leading Clinton early on. I'm still waiting on the first counties to be colored in on NYT's Election Guide for Wisconsin.

9:02pm: Ha! Well, McCain is the GOP winner according to ABC. Sp much for that "huge, unexpected" victory for Huckabee.

9:00pm: What? No winners projected?

8:55pm: Here's more analysis of the exit polls from The Caucus.

8:50pm: We are ten minutes away from polls closing in Wisconsin. The exit polls are suggesting that "change" was on the mind of Wisconsin voters. On its face that sounds like advantage Obama. But most of the Democratic voters in Wisconsin were women and/or seniors. There were some cracks in those typical Clinton groups last week in the Potomac primaries, but will Wisconsin follow that lead?

Tuesday, February 12, 2008

The Potomac Primary Results Show

Polls close in Virginia in the next couple of minutes and in DC and Maryland at 8pm. How will it play out tonight? We'll use a top down update approach tonight.

9:52pm: Back tomorrow with more on the impact of the race heading forward and impressions of what transpired.

9:50pm: Here are the results via NYT's Election Guide (ooh, with the maps):

9:48pm: CNN and the other networks are now calling DC for Obama and McCain. No real shock there. Well, the shock is that it took so long for any results to surface.

9:30pm: Again, that didn't take long. The networks (here's CNN) have chalked Maryland up for Obama and McCain already. Not really a surprise on either side, but such an early call is bad news for Clinton and Huckabee.

9:29pm: Well, DC won't post anything until 10:30 according to the Board of Elections there (via The Caucus--9:25pm post).

9:17pm: Suh-low. Things have slowed way down. Well, polls are only a few more minutes away from closing in Maryland.

8:54pm: Well, the 8 o'clock hour was a bit strange. Maryland got pushed back and DC disappeared. The New York Times has replaced the 8pm poll closing time with 0% reporting for DC, so the numbers should begin trickling (apparently) in soon.

8:41pm: Now all the rest of the networks are following suit on the McCain call in Virginia. Does Huckabee's showing attain better than expected status? The margin will be less than ten points. In the end, I think it continues to indicate that McCain has issues with conservatives, but that story is going to get old fast if McCain keeps winning.

8:35pm: CNN is calling Virginia for McCain. This thing is still very close (from the NYT Election Guide--48% reporting).
McCain 46.4%
Huckabee 45.2

8:18pm: Ouch! The shake ups continue in the Clinton campaign. Now her deputy campaign manager, Mike Henry, has resigned (via The Fix). This just won't look good beside headlines like the one immediately below.

8:16pm: CNN is running the headline, "Obama Wins 6th in a Row." Truthfully, does that smack of momentum or not?

8:01pm: Or not. Polls in Maryland will be open until 9:30pm because of inclement weather across the state.

7:53pm: We are now seven minutes away from DC and Maryland closing up shop for the night. How quickly will those races be called and how much longer will the GOP race in Virginia play out?

7:50pm: Is it me or is this Clinton-Texas-Ohio firewall strategy not at least somewhat reminiscent of Giuliani's holing up in Florida for the entire month of January? Now, I'm sure she'll make some appearances in Wisconsin, but Obama is there now celebrating his Virginia win (see 7:41 post on The Caucus live blog). I don't know, that parallel just popped into my head.

7:45pm: Just looking at the map on the Times Election Guide for Virginia, western Virginia looks like Arkansas east. Clinton and Huckabee did their best in the rural, mountain part of the state. Look for the college areas (also in the mountain region of Virginia) in Blackburg and Charlottesville to go for Obama and McCain though.

7:41pm: I don't know what hurts McCain worse: that Virginia is close or that Virginia has an open primary and it is still a close race with independents (Well, the ones who didn't decide to cast their vote for Obama. I thought that was supposed to be the New Hampshire outcome.).

7:33pm: Now the numbers that we expected to see begin to emerge (3% reporting). The better than expected scenario looks better for Huckabee than it does for Clinton right now.
Obama 62.1%
Clinton 36.9

McCain 44.3%
Huckabee 48.2

7:21pm: Here come the Virginia numbers (from the New York Times Election Guide--0% reporting):
Obama 50.6%
Clinton 48.1

McCain 38%
Huckabee 54.9
What does that tell us? Not much. If anything, if the numbers were flip-flopped between parties it would probably end up being more accurate. Now's the time to remind everyone that it is the Times that has those great county by county maps.

7:15pm: Despite the exit polling, let's not forget that Virginia holds an open primary and that Maryland is closed. That may give Clinton something of an advantage in Maryland until you factor in the reports of very high turnout among African Americans there (see caption below picture). One thing to note also from that story is that white men went with Obama over Clinton in Virginia. Virginia women backed Obama as well (see 7:09 post on The Caucus' live blog).

7:08pm: Notice that no one is calling the Virginia race on the Republican side. Can that be good news for McCain?

7:03pm: Now the New York Times is reporting that the major networks (Here's ABC's.) and the AP have projected Obama the winner in Virginia. That was fast.

7:00pm: The Drudge Report is indicating that exit polls show Obama ahead 2:1 in Virginia and Maryland and 3:1 in DC. If that comes to pass that will out pace even the rosiest of polls favoring Obama in those locales recently. *As always, these are exit polls, not actually results.

New Mexico and Washington...Still Up in the Air

Let's start off in New Mexico. Voting in the Land of Enchantment ended last Tuesday (Super Tuesday) and the result of the Democratic caucuses is still undecided. In fact, Clinton and Obama, just like in the broader contest, are virtually tied. The vote totals from the New York Times Election Guide count favors Clinton by about 1100 votes or .8 percentage points. Fine, it was a close election. Clinton won. What's the big deal? Well, at issue are 15,100 provisional ballots. According to the New Mexico Democratic Party, a first run through those ballots netted almost 5500 ballots cast by registered Democrats; or enough to potentially swing the election (That's 3.7% of the vote.). A second check of those ballots will be made against a "more extensive database" and could yield more registered Democrats who cast ballots.

What do we make of this? Well, no matter what the outcome is (and it will be a close margin for either candidate), there will be a nearly equivalent number of delegates allocated to each candidate. It is an important outcome for either though and here's why. The Latino vote and the implications that has for Texas on March 4. Clinton has done well in southwestern states with large proportions of Latino voters. She has wins in California, Nevada and Arizona. If she wins New Mexico, that is a bridge from California all the way to Texas bolstered by that demographic group. That is a nice argument to be able to make in a state as seemingly vital to her campaign as Texas. On the other hand, if Obama were to come out victorious in New Mexico, he could argue that he can hold his own in heavily Latino states, whether he carries that group or not. He got one more delegate out of Nevada than Clinton despite placing second and that coupled with a New Mexico win would create a good Obama talking point for Texas Democrats. In other words, New Mexico may make its way in to the discussions once the focus shifts to Texas based on demographics.

While we're on the subject of Texas, it should be noted that the state continues to have a hybrid primary/caucus system of delegate allocation on the Democratic side. That system has been in place since 1980 when a non-binding primary was added. The primary gained significance when it became binding in 1988 for the bigger iteration of the Southern Super Tuesday. Michael Dukakis won the primary (and the attention) while Jesse Jackson managed a win in the caucuses. It, no doubt, is easy to see a similar "split decision" scenario playing out this year in Texas. 228 total delegates are up for grabs in Texas. 126 are at stake in the primary while 67 are on the line in the caucus portion. There are 35 additional superdelegates as well. That dynamic is certainly worth keeping an eye on as the Texas delegate selection event approaches on March 4.

In Washington, the controversy is on the GOP side. The past weekend's caucus in the Evergreen State caused a stir over when the race was "called." Luke Esser, the state GOP chair, guesstimated that McCain was the narrow winner over Huckabee with only 87% of the precincts reporting. And really, how is that any different than what the networks do any time we have one of these contests. Mike Huckabee thought otherwise, drawing parallels between the state party's electoral actions and those of the former Soviet Union. Esser has disputed those claims with an open letter posted on the party's web page. And the results to this point seem to back him up. But it is all very convenient since the letter was posted today and the latest results were up as of late last night. Huckabee will lose this fight. He would be better served focusing on Virginia and Texas.

Here are those Washington GOP results.

Saturday, February 9, 2008

Here Come the Results...and the Delegate Count

As Mike Huckabee has been apt to do during this cycle, he struck first. He won the nation's first contest in Iowa. He won the first contest of Super Tuesday in West Virginia. And, as I posted earlier, he won the first contest of this weekend in Kansas. His win there kicked off the results of the day. Results that are just now starting to come in.

I'll resist the urge to go faux game show voice on you and declare, "Tell them what they've won," (Well, I just did it, didn't I?) but here is the picture that is beginning emerge this evening. This is going to sound like a broken record from Super Tuesday night and its aftermath, but caucuses are Obama's territory. He's been given the nod in both Nebraska and Washington (state). And by the same large margins he enjoyed in the caucuses on Tuesday night (two to one in both cases). At some point these large margins in the caucuses are going to help him catch up with (or increase) and pass Clinton's delegate total. His totals relative to hers will increase because the margins in these caucuses are so large compared to the near even division of delegates in most of the other primaries.

While we're on the subject of delegates, the New York Times has a couple of good pieces up now. One discusses the disparity in delegate counts from the networks, new outlets and the campaigns while another details the efforts of the Clinton and Obama camps to lure superdelegates into their folds. The members of Congress they spoke to in the latter article, seemed a bit unnerved by the task of potentially choosing the party's nominee. They seem to be biding their time, hoping that one of the candidates emerges as the winner at the conclusion of primary season.

Saturday's Results:
Kansas GOP

Washington: Washington Democrats are nearly two-thirds done with their vote tallying, and state Republicans have yet to report any results. The party's web page even turned up nothing; only the message that results would come to light starting at 6pm(PT) or fifteen minutes ago by my watch.

Nebraska Dems
from the New York Times
from the Nebraska Democratic Party

Louisiana: Very early on in the Pelican state (We're talking 0% reporting.), here's what we see:
Obama 59%
Clinton 28

McCain 58%
Huckabee 19

9:39pm: There are some tight races shaping up for the GOP in Washington (Huckabee 25.9% McCain 26.6--16% reporting) and the Dems in Louisiana (Obama 40.3% Clinton 40.7--still 0% reporting).

The morning after:
Not surprisingly, 0% reporting doesn't mean a whole lot. Once the rest of Louisiana start sending in their vote tallies, it was clear that Obama, as he had in Nebraska and Washington, had won a convincing victory. Louisiana also delivered something of a surprise on the Republican end. Though Mike Huckabee won in Louisiana, he didn't get any delegates out of the victory. The winner of the GOP primary in the state had to win a majority of the vote to be allocated the twenty delegates at stake. Those delegates will now go to the Republican national convention in Minneapolis/St. Paul unpledged. All but six of the remaining delegates on the line in Louisiana (21) will be awarded at next weekend's state convention.

In Washington, the Republican race was a tight, four-way affair. McCain and Huckabee were separated by about two percentage points (25.5 - 23.7) with 87% of caucus sites reporting. Ron Paul (20.6) and Mitt Romney (16.5) were just a handful of points behind though. To be clear, those latter two won't factor into the media discussions of the results today, but it is clear that they received a good bit of support in the state.

What does it all mean? Well, on the Republican side, McCain is in the same position he was in on Tuesday night. He is in great shape in the delegate count in relation to his main competitor. However, he doesn't have things completely wrapped up as candidates at the same point in past cycles (post-Super Tuesday) and it never looks good to lose any contest when you are the "presumptive" nominee. I'll be honest: I hadn't thought of this until yesterday when I saw some Huckabee supports talking about it. Is his candidacy now about winning or stopping McCain from winning? It may not be the Huckabee campaign's intention, but this sentiment is starting to rise up from within the anti-McCain faction of the party. The goal is not to have Huckabee necessarily become the nominee, but to keep McCain from gaining the 1191 delegates necessary to become the nominee. That could trigger a brokered convention with McCain as the clear frontrunner, but it would be a brokered convention nonetheless. Will this happen? I doubt it. These sorts of things just don't happen in a party like the Republican party that operates from the top-down.

And on the Democratic side? Well, Obama's run through yesterday's three states has put the pressure on the Clinton campaign to be sure. Maine is seen as hospitable territory for her. And as such, it becomes the closest thing to a must win since the race hit New Hampshire. And with the Potomac Primary coming up on Tuesday (three primaries with a sizable African American presence), it may be Clinton's last best shot before the race hits Texas on March 4. To be clear, Virginia is seen as a good opportunity for Clinton as well, but not as good as Maine is today. All wouldn't be lost with another Obama win (in another caucus), but it is incumbent upon the Clinton folks to stem the tide of the Obama momentum before it is too late.

Tuesday, February 5, 2008

Super Tuesday Results (Live Blog)

Let's dispatch with the niceties and get right down to business. There are a lot of delegates at stake in today's contests and the fun starts right here in Georgia. Polls closed at 7pm.

7:06pm: Well, it didn't take long here. Georgia was seen as a strong lean to Obama heading into today and having a quick call go his way, is a good start to the evening.

7:13pm: The Drudge Report has some early exit poll numbers up. Obama is way ahead in some states, Clinton in others. California, Massachusetts and Missouri are close (ABC News just called those the bellwether states for Democrats tonight.). New Jersey is a surprising but small lean to Obama. Of course, now Drudge is up with a warning cautioning folks not to put too much stock in exit poll numbers.

7:25pm: Speaking of exit polls, change seems to be the word of the day. Good news for Obama.
From The Caucus:
"Georgia Closes: Here’s one thing we can tell you so far from the early exit polls, conducted by Edison/Mitofsky. For Democrats, the most important issue facing the country is the economy, far out-pacing the war in Iraq and health care. Nine of 10 Democratic primary voters say the economy is either not so good or poor."

7:40pm: And what of the GOP? The race is tight in Georgia.
McCain 37%
Huckabee 32
Romney 27
7:43pm: Let's not forget that Bill Clinton used Georgia as his first, post-New Hampshire (Comeback Kid circa 1992) victory to catapult him into the driver's seat in the race for the nomination that year. The state also played a valuable role in his general election campaign in 1992. For the Clintons to lose the state says a lot. Mostly that the state Democratic party is much different today than it was in 1992. Zell Miller led the charge in Georgia for Clinton in 1992. That wing of the party as since moved on leaving a party much more female and much more African American than they were then (simple percentages of the party).

7:57pm: Hold on everyone. 8pm is the biggest poll closing of the night. Buckle up; this next hour could get interesting. Two of those bellwethers close in a few minutes (Massachusetts and Missouri).

8:02pm: CNN has called Illinois for Obama and McCain, Oklahoma for Clinton and Connecticut for McCain.

8:14pm: McCain takes New Jersey and Romney counters with a win in home state Massachusetts.

8:17pm: No real surprises so far. McCain is doing well where the polls had him ahead in the last few days, Romney won in his home state and Clinton and Obama are trading victories evenly.

8:34pm: Polls just closed in Arkansas. Favorite son, Mike Huckabee has already been declared the projected winner. No word on their favorite adopted daughter and former First Lady in the state.

8:37pm: Nevermind. That didn't take long. Clinton takes Arkansas and adds Tennessee as well.

8:39pm: This is an interesting series of results. Huckabee really seems to be doing well (early) in the South. He looks to be in good position in the Alabama, Tennessee, Georgia and Arkansas. Meanwhile, it is hard to get a feel for the results on the Democratic side. I can understand "home" state wins for Obama and Clinton. Georgia resembled South Carolina demographically for Obama, and beyond that, there seems to be a break for Obama in the deep South (Georgia and Alabama) while Clinton is doing well in the "border" states (Tennessee and Arkansas). Other areas are more difficult to peg.

8:46pm: Delaware to McCain. Just a few delegates, but the continuation of the trend in his favor tonight.

8:57pm: Here comes 9pm. Another six states close their polls and we learn more about those unsettled states from the previous hour. New Jersey, I'm looking your way.

9:03pm: Alright, I've reclaimed the TV and I'm tuned in to ABC. They just projected New York and Massachusetts for Clinton, Delaware for Obama and Huckabee continues a nice run in the South with a projected win in Alabama. (Results from CNN and they aren't willing to call Massachusetts for Clinton or Alabama for Huckabee.).

9:12pm: Add the AP to the list of news agencies calling Massachusetts for Clinton and Alabama for Huckabee.

9:16pm: Georgia for the GOP continues to be tight.
Huckabee 35%
McCain 32
Romney 29
9:18pm: ABC just projected Clinton the winner in New Jersey. So other than Deleware, Clinton is doing well in the Northeast. Connecticut is still up in the air.

9:21pm: ABC News is harping on Huckabee in the South. They showed raw numbers for Oklahoma, Tennessee and Missouri and Huckabee is in great shape in all three. That spells trouble for McCain. The talk on conservative talk radio about McCain being a true conservative may have carried some weight among those Southern conservatives/evangelicals.

9:27pm: Drudge via ABC News (now at commercial break) is projecting Obama the winner in Alabama. Now CNN is following suit.

9:33pm: McCain wins another big one in New York. Ah, the Giuliani factor.

9:39pm: Obama seems to be ahead in all the caucus states that have closed thus far (Kansas, North Dakota, Minnesota and Idaho). So while Clinton has a lead in states (and in delegates), Obama can add some states to the list with wins in these states. And again, these are the red states he's been talking about being able to penetrate in the general election; ones where Clinton wouldn't be able to do as well.

9:46pm: The Caucus talks about the influence of money in the Democratic contest in Massachusetts:
"Money, Money, Money Here’s a hint about Mrs. Clinton’s strong showing in Mass. She way outspent Mr. Obama on television. Per the Campaign Media Analysis Group: She ran 309 spots, costing $65,000, compared with 120 spots by Mr. Obama, who spent $27,000. That spending in Massachusetts is from Jan. 2007 through Feb. 3, 2008."

9:57pm: Over to CBS. They've just called Oklahoma for McCain. That helps stem the Southern tide that Huckabee has built this evening.

10pm: A few more states close (Utah, Colorado, Arizona, North Dakota-R). Now NBC gets into the mix. I'm switching to them now. Maybe Tim Russert will get his dry erase board out. There are delegates to be counted so I'm counting on it. No pun intended.

10:01pm: Romney takes Utah. Well, that didn't take long. No surprise. Mormons like Romney.

10:14pm: Another caucus, another Obama lead. This time in Colorado. Why are his people such good caucusers? Even when he lost in Nevada he still won one more delegate. This is an interesting development.

10:18pm: And to follow up, Obama has been declared the winner of the North Dakota caucuses by CNN.

10:22pm: In case you forgot, California's polls close in about thirty-five minutes.

10:25pm: Obama has broken through again in the Northeast with a win in Connecticut. Chalk up another caucus for him in Kansas as well.

10:31pm: NBC calls Utah for Obama.

10:34pm: Drudge is calling big wins for Huckabee in Georgia, Tennessee and Missouri (and Idaho's caucus for Obama). Unbelievable showing for Huckabee in the South. His campaign has made a real statement in this race. Brian Williams and Russert are talking VP for Huckabee. One other thing on Huckabee: he has run a heck of a campaign, especially financially. Think of the bang for his buck that he has gotten versus say, Mitt Romney.

10:39pm: CNN has called Alabama for Huckabee. Is that in the South?

10:45pm: Obama has overtaken Clinton in the delegate count with this recent string of victories in the heartland.

10:46pm: McCain wins in Arizona. Favorite sons (and daughters) are doing well tonight. While Huckabee is winning some contests, McCain is winning a lot of delegates. He may have some problems with the GOP base but he's got a very healthy delegate lead.

10:50pm: Another caucus for Obama. Minnesota goes for him as well. Need I say more. He has really made strides in the Midwest and in the Prairie and Mountain states. If Huckabee is a threat to McCain because of his strength then Obama similarly affects Clinton in the heartland.

10:53pm: We are on the edge of California officially joining the Super Tuesday party. Polls may close shortly there, but if recent surveys are any indication, then we won't know much in tight races on both sides.

10:59pm: ABC disagrees with the above delegate count. They still have Clinton in the lead.

11:00pm: TV has betrayed me. I'm switching to complete online coverage.

11:05pm: No call in the Show-Me state for the Democrats. Missouri is tight but with 78% of precincts reporting, Clinton maintains a five point edge (51-46). It is even tighter for McCain and Huckabee. Only one point separates McCain from Huckabee there.

11:09pm: NBC has called Georgia for Huckabee now.

11:11pm: California is still too close to call on both sides.

11:12pm: Romney wins in North Dakota. Again, it may not be much, but if he can pull out a win in California, then he'll have a few states to hang his hat on.

11:15pm: Add Minnesota's caucuses to Romney's tally.

11:41pm: Obama has added Idaho's caucuses to his column now. Another caucus.

11:47pm: That pesky 9am class is staring me in the face now. Let the delegate counting begin. I'll be back in the morning to wrap things up. An interesting night so far.

The morning after: California may have been "too close to call" once polls closed there, but Missouri takes the cake as the closest state of the night. The tightness of the races on both sides scared the networks off of calling the state until after midnight--four hours after the polls
had closed there (Georgia's GOP race lasted nearly that long as well.). You can't automatically make the claim that Missouri is the new, close general election state, but file the Show-Me state away until November. The baton may be passed their way from Ohio (in the same way that Ohio claimed the mantle from Florida, circa 2000.).

Here are the results (gotta love the maps):


Now we can all get out our calculators and begin counting delegates in the same way that electoral votes have been counted in the last two presidential general elections.

Tuesday, January 29, 2008

Primary Results from the Sunshine State

The Drudge Report is giving McCain an ever so slight edge via the Florida exit polls. Say what you will about Drudge, but he was calling the battleground states with surprising accuracy during the 2004 election.

The numbers from those polls:
McCain 34.3%
Romney 32.6
Giuliani 15.3
Huckabee 12
*These are not raw numbers from the actual primary. They are exit poll numbers. Keep in mind that absentee and early voting has reached new heights in Florida during the lead up to today.

The press is showing some surprising restraint (at least in my eyes) in not really saying a whole lot about the Democratic race thus far. Despite there being no delegates at stake in Florida for the Democrats, turnout has been high. Of course, as Rob rightly points out in the comments section below, there was a tax initiative on the ballot that motivated a lot people to turnout today.

7:31pm: Early results are in. Reports of a tight race between McCain and Romney were right on the mark.
McCain 30.2
Romney 30.0
Giuliani 17.4
Huckabee 15.5

For the Democrats, Clinton is enjoying a margin similar to what Obama had over her in South Carolina last weekend.
Clinton 53.5%
Obama 26.1
Edwards 16.5

I should also add that exit polls are showing that the economy was viewed (see first post at botton) by over half of Democrats and by nearly half of all Republican primary voters are the biggest issue.

9:21pm: With 57% in on the GOP side, McCain has a four point lead.
McCain 35.4%
Romney 31.4
Giuliani 15.0
Huckabee 13.3
For the Dems, Clinton is still up by around 20 points. Is there anyway that if Obama sneaks to within 15 points or less (not really all that likely) of the lead, that he can claim some small measure of victory? I'd lean toward no, but what are other people's thoughts?

A couple of other things:
CBS Evening News on their broadcast tonight had a striking figure concerning the number of ads McCain and Romney have run so far. Romney had a nearly 10-1 edge with 4000 some ads run to McCain's 470 or so. Predictably CBS replaced their pre-Florida results segment with post-Florida coverage on their online version of the news. The Fix made mention of the same statistic adding even more information (saying that that was just in Florida). See the fourth bullet point down for that. The Times also has a piece discussing McCain's spending lately. That may explain the shortness of cash in his coffers.

Well, as of 9:37pm
, the conservative New York Times (at least when it comes to calling winners of these things and counting delegates) has called the GOP race for McCain. That should certainly help financially heading into the smörgåsbord of primaries and caucuses next Tuesday.

Here are the final results from Florida:
McCain 36.0%
Romney 31.1
Giuliani 14.6
Huckabee 13.5

Clinton 49.7%
Obama 33.0
Edwards 14.4

Saturday, January 26, 2008

Obama Back in the Win Column in South Carolina

Well, that didn't take long. Eleven minutes after the polls closed in South Carolina, The New York Times called Obama the winner of the state's Democratic primary. Exit polls are showing an overwhelming level of support for Obama amongst African Americans. Among whites, the three candidates were much closer when Clinton and Edwards bunch together and Obama not far behind. The question now is how well was Edwards able to do ( Clinton's expense). The answer to that question will go a long way toward telling us whether he'll be able to survive until Super Tuesday (a week from Tuesday) and how much spin we will hear out of the Clinton camp.

7:29pm: They must round down because with 0% of precincts reporting Obama leads.
Obama 64%
Clinton 24
Edwards 12

7:38pm: Just to show that even 0% was no fluke: with 2% now reporting it's...
Obama 51%
Clinton 34
Edwards 15

Oh and don't forget to check things out over at Those maps will look good once they start coloring them in. And no phone books or xeroxed copies of maps necessary.

Also, The Caucus over at the New York Times has a nice live blog going concerning the primary results.

9:25pm: I'm assuming that this is going to pass the decisiveness test that Rob placed on an Obama victory. With 96% in it's:
Obama 55%
Clinton 27
Edwards 18

So, let's do an instant analysis here. Obama has made a statement that he's going to be a factor on February 5 (that he's not just the guy who won Iowa). Clinton has has her string of victories broken and will now begin to spin the "unimportance" of South Carolina. Edwards is now left wondering whether he can keep garnering as much of the support as he has in the earlier states when it is clear he won't win the nomination. You can't be kingmaker if you can't at least pick off a decent chunk of delegates.

There are now two days between now and the Florida primary on Tuesday. Do any of the Democrats venture into the state in that time? Is Edwards desperate enough even after having cast himself as the rule guy in this race (taking matching funds, staying out of Michigan and off the ballot there) to break the party rules and attempt to make some waves in Florida?

Tuesday, January 22, 2008

Nevada Caucuses (postmortem)

If you haven't already, head over to politickerNV and check out David Damore's wrap up of the unprecedented week that was in Nevada last week.

Saturday, January 19, 2008

Clinton and Romney claim Nevada Victories and SC polls just closed

Former Massachusetts governor, Mitt Romney made it two in a row with an easy win in the Nevada GOP caucus this morning to go along with his win in the Michigan primary on Tuesday. Taking a winning streak into an off week won't hurt him either with Florida voters now having just less than two weeks to consider what still remains an open race on the Republican side. While Romney's camp made a last minute decision to focus on Nevada every other candidate (well, almost every other one--Giuliani is still in Florida) was putting in time in South Carolina. The polls just closed in the Palmetto state and early exit polls indicate the economy and immigration (see 7:09pm post) were on the minds of South Carolina's Republican primary voters; a clear advantage for Huckabee. TRACKING...

7:41pm: Very early but with one percent of precincts in, McCain has a 38-23 lead over Huckabee (Look, I said it was early.).

8:05pm: Just to show you that 1% isn't representative of the entire state of South Carolina on the GOP side: McCain 34, Huckabee 30 with 12% in. This one could be fun. Third place seems like a real battle between Thompson and Romney with hovering around 14%.

9:29pm: The New York Times is calling the race for McCain. When you look at that 15% that Thompson got you can't help but wonder how much that hurt Huckabee's chances at a win in SC. He (Huckabee) has a tough row to hoe now.

Meanwhile the Democrats had a caucus in Nevada as well, where Hillary Clinton continued a streak of her own. She has now run her streak of victories to two (three if you want to count Michigan and the DNC isn't) after an initial setback in Iowa's caucuses. And boy were the polls from earlier in the week wrong. What looked like a tight three-way race for the Silver state turned into a tight two-way race as former North Carolina senator, John Edwards managed a meager four percent of the vote. Clinton and Obama split the remaining 96%, 51-45. Obama didn't seem to get the support he was hoping for from the endorsement of the Culinary Workers union. While the union's endorsement was seen as a big deal, it didn't prove influential among the rank and file members as some strayed into the Clinton camp.

While the GOP is off until Florida on January 29, the Democrats have their own primary in South Carolina next Saturday where the support of African Americans will be key to which ever candidate claims victory there.

Nevada results.

Tuesday, January 15, 2008

GOP opts for foot race to determine nominee following Michigan primary

Someone has to win this thing, right? First Huckabee. Then McCain. Now Romney (Sorry Wyoming. If the GOP race continues like this, those eight delegates may eventually prove consequential despite the lack of coverage ten days ago.). The AP is projecting that Romney has won the Michigan primary by a similar margin to what McCain won New Hampshire by last week. Honestly, don't be surprised if Fred Thompson wins in South Carolina over the weekend. So once Giuliani wins in Florida the Republicans can start over again on Super Tuesday.
Romney 37%
McCain 31
Huckabee 16
--with 11% of precincts in.

Meanwhile Clinton has a commanding 2-1 lead over "uncommitted" on the Democratic side.
Clinton 61%
Uncommitted 33
--with 18% of precincts reporting (9:20pm)

Oh and the Democrats are debating (sans Kucinich). I'm on the outside looking in since MSNBC and laptop aren't on speaking terms tonight. If you are in the same boat I'm in, The Caucus blog over at The New York Times is live blogging the debate.

Tuesday, January 8, 2008

McCain is the choice of New Hampshire Republicans again

Well, that didn't take long. Less than two hours after the polls closed the race has already been called for McCain on the GOP side (8:30pm). The real surprise is that with 15% of the precincts reporting Clinton leads Obama 40-36 with Edwards a distant third. Early numbers indicate that New Hampshire women are going with Clinton in a reverse from what happened in Iowa last Thursday (see 8:32pm post in above link).

UPDATE: The numbers on the Democratic side largely held up as the precincts continued to come in.
Clinton 39%
Obama 36
Edwards 17
So Clinton won a "shocking" comeback victory and the polls fooled us all.

Saturday, January 5, 2008

Romney wins in Wyoming

The nomination fight left Iowa Thursday and headed, for the most part, to New Hampshire in anticipation of Tuesday's primary there. However, the GOP took a small detour to Wyoming today, for a caucus there. Mind you, this detour did not include any immediate attention from any of the Republican candidates, but it did include a caucus that distributed twelve delegates to this summer's GOP convention in Minneapolis. Small peanuts, sure. But a win's a win and Mitt Romney can now lay claim to a win in Wyoming's county conventions; wrapping up eight of the twelve delegates at stake.

What impact does that have on New Hampshire for Tuesday? Given that you really have to dig to find any news of this and the fact that visits from the candidates were limited at best, I doubt much affect will be felt.

The results:
Romney: 8 delegates
Thompson: 3
Hunter: 1

Thursday, January 3, 2008

Huckabee takes Iowa...Obama too.

The New Yorks Times blog The Caucus is reporting that Romney has conceded and that's with just fifteen percent of the precincts reporting as of 8:05pm (IA time). On to South Carolina for Huckabee and Romney heads to New Hampshire to try and hold off McCain for the next few days.

For the Dems, it is a tight race. Obama tops the list and Edwards is literally a handful of votes ahead of Clinton with 50% of the precincts in.

UPDATE: Things are still tight on the Democratic side. Obama seems to be pulling away but as of 8:30pm Edwards led Clinton by just three votes. Obama is doing better than expected in conservative area; areas considered to be Edwards' strongholds.

UPDATE: The New York Times is calling the Democratic race for Obama. With 84% of precincts reporting (8:41pm), Obama led with 37% of the vote. Edwards still holds an extremely slim edge over Clinton (just four votes). Let the spin begin from those two camps. The way I read it, a third place finish is a third place finish for Clinton. It will be interesting to see how they play that as the race shifts to New Hampshire.

UPDATE: At 9pm with 92% of the precincts in, Obama-37, Edwards-30 and Clinton-30. Edwards holds a nine vote lead over Clinton.