The Electoral College Map (8/6/12)

There were fewer straggling polls that surfaced either late Friday or over the weekend as compared to the week before. [FHQ wasn't around to deal with them anyway.] Those that were released were of little consequence to the outlook on the electoral college.

New State Polls (8/6/12)
State	Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Obama	Romney	Undecided	Poll Margin	FHQ Margin
Indiana	Rasmussen	7/31-8/1	+/- 5%	400 likely voters	35	51	11	+16	+11.43
South Dakota	Nielson Brothers	7/19-7/23	+/- 4.19%	546 registered  voters	43	49	8	+6	+6.54
Washington	Survey USA	8/1-8/2	+/- 4.4%	524 likely voters	54	37	5	+17	+12.02

Polling Quick Hits:
Indiana:
Now, FHQ said that what changes there were based on the newest collection of polls were not all that consequential, and while that is true on some level, it is not completely so. The latest Rasmussen survey of Indiana showed a slight growth in Mitt Romney's share of support, but a bottoming out of Obama's rate of response in the Hoosier state. The president's loss was offset by a fairly large and nearly equivalent increase in the percent undecided in this poll relative to the May Rasmussen poll.

What that left was a +16 Romney advantage in Indiana. However, for a barely blue state in the 2008 election, that is a larger swing back toward the red than has been witnessed elsewhere in 2012. Does that mean that this one is an outlier? Well, the poll did send the FHQ weighted average on Indiana into Strong Romney, but it was also only the third survey that has been in the field there in 2012. We should, then, expect some volatility albeit perhaps not this much. What is clear for both Indiana and South Dakota below is that these Lean or Strong distinctions are of little import. Neither is at all likely to slip into the president's column now or any time between now and election day. If either is blue on November 6, then the president will have been re-elected.

Changes (August 6)
State	Before	After
Indiana	Lean Romney	Strong Romney
South Dakota	Strong Romney	Lean Romney

South Dakota:
See Indiana. Volatility, very sporadic polling, red state. And yes, red despite the shift toward Obama in this instance. Nielson Brothers is the only polling outlet that has surveyed the Mount Rushmore state. We see there almost the exact opposite of what happened in Indiana, though. The number of undecided respondents shrunk compared to a February poll and while both candidates' shares grew, Obama was the greater beneficiary -- nearly 2:1 -- over that time span. Again, this may have triggered a category shift, but South Dakota will be red in November. Cast in binary terms, both Indiana and South Dakota didn't budge and won't.

Washington:
Survey USA was in the field in Washington state just a couple of weeks ago and things have not changed all that much. Romney has held pat at 37% and Obama shifted from his lowest point in the polling of the Evergreen state to what had been his high water mark in the eight previous surveys. That is not an insignificant change, but one that is well within the range of polling data for each candidate in polling of the state.

All told this round of polling pushed Indiana into a safer position from the Romney campaign perspective. Meanwhile the gap between president and his Republican challenger in South Dakota contracted, but can hardly be considered tenuous for Romney. The changes are a function of the amount of polling in each and are not indicative of any major shift in the race. Both states are red and very likely to stay that way. But both change categories; Indiana dipping deeper into the heart of the Romney side of the Electoral College Spectrum ledger and South Dakota jumping all the way to the middle column.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
RI-4 (7)2	NJ-14 (160)	NH-4 (257)	AZ-11 (167)	MS-6 (55)
HI-4 (11)	WA-12 (172)	OH-183 (275/281)	MT-3 (156)	ND-3 (49)
NY-29 (40)	MN-10 (182)	CO-9 (284/263)	GA-16 (153)	AL-9 (46)
VT-3 (43)	NM-5 (187)	VA-13 (297/254)	WV-5 (137)	KY-8 (37)
MD-10 (53)	CT-7 (194)	IA-6 (303/241)	IN-11 (132)	KS-6 (29)
CA-55 (108)	OR-7 (201)	FL-29 (332/235)	SC-9 (121)	AK-3 (23)
MA-11 (119)	PA-20 (221)	NC-15 (206)	LA-8 (112)	OK-7 (20)
IL-20 (139)	WI-10 (231)	TN-11 (191)	NE-5 (104)	ID-4 (13)
DE-3 (142)	NV-6 (237)	MO-10 (180)	AR-6 (99)	WY-3 (9)
ME-4 (146)	MI-16 (253)	SD-3 (170)	TX-38 (93)	UT-6 (6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 272 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics. 3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

Washington, on the other hand, switches places with Minnesota on the Spectrum and goes off the Watch List into the Strong Obama category in the process. There has been some movement on and off the List of late, but the states most worth watching are the same states that have been worth watching: those in light blue. As we head into the fall campaign, the question remains whether those states stay where they are or drift over toward Romney either en masse or in some other combination.

The Watch List1
State	Switch
Connecticut	from Strong Obama	to Lean Obama
Georgia	from Strong Romney	to Lean Romney
Michigan	from Lean Obama	to Toss Up Obama
Nevada	from Lean Obama	to Toss Up Obama
New Hampshire	from Toss Up Obama	to Lean Obama
New Mexico	from Strong Obama	to Lean Obama
Ohio	from Toss Up Obama	to Lean Obama
West Virginia	from Strong Romney	to Lean Romney
Wisconsin	from Lean Obama	to Toss Up Obama
1 Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

EDIT: There was also a new poll out of Virginia that showed the president up four points on Romney (44-40). There was, however, not enough information from Gravis Marketing (i.e.: sample size, dates, etc.) to include it in the weighted average in the Old Dominion.

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Frequently Asked Questions about FHQ graduated weighted average methodology.

Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (8/2/12)

The Electoral College Map (8/1/12)

The Electoral College Map (7/31/12)

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The Big Montana

It's not just a 1lb. roast beef sandwich at Arby's anymore. The Treasure state (...and the twenty plus superdelegates who announced as soon as the polls closed in Montana) put Obama over the top in the delegate count for the Democratic nomination. I'm probably not the first to say it and I probably won't be the last. However, we just completed exactly five months of primary season (January 3-June 3). And the general election kicks off tomorrow; exactly five month before the election day on November 4. Ah, symmetry. This next five months will certainly be hard pressed to match the previous five months for drama and excitement.

So Obama sheds the VANP (very almost nearly presumptive) nominee title, and assumes the mantle of presumptive nominee. Here we go. Fasten your seat belts, it's going to be a bumpy ride.

I'll be back tomorrow with our first look at the electoral maps during general election season.


Recent Posts:
The Long and Winding Road

Maine Final Tally: 59% of the Vote, 63% of the Delegates

Half and Half: The Florida and Michigan Story

The Long and Winding Road

And here we are, five months after we started, at the conclusion of primary season. I would be remiss if I didn't mention that I have a tear in my eye at the thought. But hey, talk of states moving their delegate selection events for the 2012 cycle has already begun (Arkansas, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky and Minnesota). And the Republicans have nomination system reform on the agenda for their convention later this summer. So, I'll manage to keep busy (...between that and this general election thing, whatever that is. FHQ has always been of the mind that these presidential elections end once primary season ends anyway. But that's just a personal preference just like my affinity for the early rounds of the NCAA tournament. But I digress.).

Montana and South Dakota bring up the rear today in the final two contests of the nomination phase of the 2008 campaign. [Of course, there are Republican contests in New Mexico and South Dakota today as well. The GOP already held delegate selection in Montana during a February 5 caucus, but hold a beauty contest primary today. My guess is that McCain improves upon his third place showing there, though Romney still has all 25 delegates--until the convention that is.] For the Democrats, both states offer a combined 31 pledged delegates, not to mention some interesting rules quirks. Yeah, you knew I'd take notice of those.

In South Dakota the polls close on the closed primary at 9pm Eastern.

One hour later, the polls close in Montana (10pm Eastern). The primary format is more suitable to Obama in the Treasure state. Open primaries have been more favorable to Obama with independents allowed to participate. That Montana's primary is open and South Dakota's is closed may explain some of the differences between the expectations in the two states. South Dakota is expected to be the closer of the two races (...though, as Rob pointed out in the Maine post below, the latest poll out of South Dakota has Clinton up by 26 points. Fivethirtyeight discounts that finding though, pinning the race as a five point Obama win.). Montana has the added quirk that it treats its delegate allocation as if it were still 1980 and the state still had two congressional districts. The state is split into eastern and western halves with each getting 5 of the 16 pledged delegates.

I'll be back with some brief coverage tonight, but it will be interesting to chart the superdelegate endorsements throughout the day. Demconwatch is the place to track that, if you are so inclined.


Recent Posts:
Maine Final Tally: 59% of the Vote, 63% of the Delegates

Half and Half: The Florida and Michigan Story

Carl Levin's Statement to the Rules and Bylaws Committee