Showing posts with label 2010 congressional races. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2010 congressional races. Show all posts

Sunday, September 19, 2010

Has something been missed here?

This simultaneous rally idea that Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert have hatched seems at best oddly timed and at worst counterproductive. In the case of the former, the "Rally to Restore Sanity" and "March to Keep Fear Alive" are scheduled for the weekend before the November 2 midterm elections. Yeah, that's almost as coincidental as Glenn Beck holding a Rally to Restore Honor on the same day and at the same location as Martin Luther King Jr.'s "I have a dream" speech. Coincident or not, Stewart and Colbert are appealing to moderates, but are more likely to energize liberals and Democrats on a weekend that those people would probably be better served volunteering their time going door to door to turn out "on the fence" Democratic voters who might help cushion what looks to be a fairly significant blow to the Democratic majorities in both houses of Congress.

Again, the timing seems odd whether you hold the view that the two Comedy Central late night personalities are Democrats at heart, or like I tell my classes I try to be, equal opportunity offenders.

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Wednesday, September 8, 2010

Turnout always matters unless it doesn't.

Daniel Hopkins over at The Monkey Cage has this to say on the subject of turnout in November:
Last year, political scientists Stephen Ansolabehere and Charles Stewart pointed out that most of Barack Obama’s increased vote total over John Kerry came from black and Hispanic voters. Those two ethnic/racial groups together accounted for an increase of 7 million votes for Obama, as compared to 3 million added votes from non-Hispanic white citizens. So in thinking about the upcoming elections for the House of Representatives, it makes sense to ask about how blacks and Latinos are represented in the most competitive districts. Consider the 42 seats currently held by Democrats that analyst Charlie Cook considers to be “toss ups.” As these races go, so goes the House in all likelihood. According to the Census Bureau, the median toss-up district’sresidents in 2006-8 were 3.6% Latino and 4.8% black—as compared to shares of 15.1% and 12.3% nationally. Simply put, irrespective of turnout, the electorate that will prove decisive in which party controls the House has fewer voters of color than the electorate that proved decisive in electing Obama.
Food for thought with just one more round of primaries between us and a full scale general election campaign.

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Wednesday, September 23, 2009

FHQ Reading Room (9/23/09)

Is it too early to be talking about 2010 congressional predictions?

Tom Holbrook says yes (based on the data).

...and Charlie Cook responds that they aren't predictions; they're warnings.

FHQ's take: I love arguments based on semantics. Seriously though, who doesn't take what Cook is writing as a prediction? The bigger question is whether those reading it take them literally or of their own volition add the caveat that conditions may change between now and November 2010.

Is race an underlying factor in the opposition to Obama's health care reform agenda?

There has been an interesting (political science-based) discussion of this stemming from Jimmy Carter's recent comments.

John Sides weighs in here. And Seth Masket here and here. All are well worth reading.

FHQ's take: As spurious relationships go, this one is the spurious-est. Just because there is a high correlation between ice cream sales and swimming pool drownings doesn't mean that one is driving the other. Both are driven by rising prices. Obama was correct in saying that race wasn't the "overriding" factor and Bill Clinton (as Seth points out) said it even better by mentioning that those opposing Obama would oppose him if he was a white Democrat too.

Who tweets more? Congressional Democrats or Republicans?

Apparently it's Republicans. Additionally, here's a great site that aggregates the tweets of all members of Congress.

FHQ's take: Bookmark Tweet Congress.

What are you waiting for?

Bookmark it now. Go on.

The Dos and Don'ts of Vice Presidential Selection: A Guide for Presidential Nominees

John Edwards' continuing story got Andrew Gelman thinking which, in turn, got Jonathan Bernstein thinking.

FHQ's take: The result is a pretty good guide to VP selection. There has been a certain amount of chatter out there in terms of Republicans selecting the "none of the above option" in terms of those prospective candidates being polled with 2012 in mind. Makes you wonder if Huckabee or Romney would be potential running mates for someone like Palin or Pawlenty (I mean, if the Republican primary voters opt to go in a different direction in 2012 and both Romney and Huckabee still have political careers after all is said and done.).

Recent Posts:
State of the Race: New Jersey Governor (9/22/09)

Arizona in 2012? Still Red.

Expectations and the 2012 Republican Presidential Nomination