H/t: Elections Update for the link.
Recent Posts:
What About North Carolina? Can Obama Swing the Tar Heel State?
The Electoral College Map (10/20/08)
The Electoral College Map (10/19/08)
Monday, October 20, 2008
Early Voting in Forsyth County, GA: Technology at Work
Why call ahead to see if there's a line to vote early when you can simply point and click? Welcome to the internet age of ETV: estimated time of voting.
And, hey Rob, right in your backyard! Or not, unless you have a really big backyard.
H/t: Elections Update for the link.
Recent Posts:
What About North Carolina? Can Obama Swing the Tar Heel State?
The Electoral College Map (10/20/08)
The Electoral College Map (10/19/08)
H/t: Elections Update for the link.
Recent Posts:
What About North Carolina? Can Obama Swing the Tar Heel State?
The Electoral College Map (10/20/08)
The Electoral College Map (10/19/08)
What About North Carolina? Can Obama Swing the Tar Heel State?
Yeah, what about North Carolina? Recently, FHQ has begun discussing the toss up states on our Watch List in terms of "magic numbers." Basically, this asks what it would take from the very next poll released from a state to force that state across, in this case, the partisan line. So, what is the Tar Heel state's magic number? This came up in the comments, and my response ended up being too long not to simply just create a new post.
----
Part of the reason FHQ shifted from a simple weighted average to a graduated weighted average (one that progressively discounts polls based on when they were in the field) is that states like Minnesota and North Carolina were unresponsive to a series of new polls that ran counter to where our averages had each state.
Some of that unresponsiveness was remedied with the methodological change, but did not move either state as much as some would have liked. The bubble seems to have burst in Minnesota for McCain, so the North Star state has worked its way back to essentially where it was prior to the conventions -- a strong Obama state (Sure, some of that has to do with the threshold being dropped.).
North Carolina, though, is a bit different. In the Tar Heel state we have witnessed a string of polls that have shown Obama ahead by margins up to 6 points with just a few pro-McCain polls peppered in. Yet, it is still seemingly stuck in the McCain toss up category. Much of this has to do with the amount of information we have in North Carolina. Even with the older polls discounted, there is an awful lot of McCain support inherent in the average. In other words, there are a lot of McCain polls for this recent series of Obama polls to overcome. The Tar Heel state has had around 50 polls conducted this year and none of them (other than the Zogby internet polls) favored Obama until after the Lehman collapse. That's a lot of McCain support in the average.
As far as a magic number is concerned, North Carolina is a lot like Ohio: it is going to take a lot to move things just a little. For the next poll to push North Carolina into the blue, it would have to give Obama a margin of 45 points. That's just not going to happen. But we may continue to see numbers come in under the current average of 2.4 (for McCain) that continue to chip away at that margin. In fact, I think that is likely. Between now and election day, we are likely to see polls that are in the +/-3 point range with some outliers thrown in.
Just for the heck of it let's do an exercise here. What if we lopped off all the polls conducted before Obama clinched the Democratic nomination; everything from June 3 on (FHQ has done something similar before.)? How would that affect things? Once we reweight the polls based on a lower number of days in the period examined, we find that Obama gains, but that McCain's lead shrinks to only 1.7 points (down from 2.4). What is North Carolina's magic number then? Not surprisingly, it drops, but not to anymore manageable a level. It would still require a poll with Obama ahead by 25 points to turn North Carolina blue. Obviously, the the number of pro-Obama polls it would take to successfully chip away at that average and turn it blue would be far fewer in this instance.
This is in line with my thinking about North Carolina. I'm a native Tar Heel and though I'm not there now, I still have family ties to the state. My sense is that North Carolina is a "close but not quite" state for Obama. Sure, I've been out of the state for a while, but North Carolina still feels (And yes, that certainly strays from the black and white we get from the numbers typically leaned on here at FHQ.) like a state that is a continued demographic shift away from becoming less reliably Republican -- at the presidential level -- and more reliably competitive. It speaks to the Democratic tilt of this election that North Carolina is talked about in the same breath with the Ohios and Floridas on the map.
UPDATE: Our discussion has extended beyond North Carolina in the comments to encompass a discussion of much of the South. Scott has taken the Census data on the African American percentage of the population and regressed that on Obama's support among whites in these states. A simple bivariate regression with some rather interesting results.
Here are the states Scott looked at (all have at one point or another shown John McCain and Barack Obama within single digits of each other):
Virginia: 39% (20%)
North Carolina: 38% (22%)
Georgia: 28% (30%)
South Carolina: 25% (29%)
Louisiana: 18% (32%)
Mississippi: 16% (37%)
Below is the plot of that relationship; one that shows a rather high correlation between the two variables. The data above are rank ordered based on the dependent variable (Obama's white support) and are displayed as such below.
[Click Graphic to Enlarge]
A big tip of the cap to SarahLawrenceScott for a nice addition to our discussion. Kudos!
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/20/08)
The Electoral College Map (10/19/08)
The Electoral College Map (10/18/08)
----
Part of the reason FHQ shifted from a simple weighted average to a graduated weighted average (one that progressively discounts polls based on when they were in the field) is that states like Minnesota and North Carolina were unresponsive to a series of new polls that ran counter to where our averages had each state.
Some of that unresponsiveness was remedied with the methodological change, but did not move either state as much as some would have liked. The bubble seems to have burst in Minnesota for McCain, so the North Star state has worked its way back to essentially where it was prior to the conventions -- a strong Obama state (Sure, some of that has to do with the threshold being dropped.).
North Carolina, though, is a bit different. In the Tar Heel state we have witnessed a string of polls that have shown Obama ahead by margins up to 6 points with just a few pro-McCain polls peppered in. Yet, it is still seemingly stuck in the McCain toss up category. Much of this has to do with the amount of information we have in North Carolina. Even with the older polls discounted, there is an awful lot of McCain support inherent in the average. In other words, there are a lot of McCain polls for this recent series of Obama polls to overcome. The Tar Heel state has had around 50 polls conducted this year and none of them (other than the Zogby internet polls) favored Obama until after the Lehman collapse. That's a lot of McCain support in the average.
As far as a magic number is concerned, North Carolina is a lot like Ohio: it is going to take a lot to move things just a little. For the next poll to push North Carolina into the blue, it would have to give Obama a margin of 45 points. That's just not going to happen. But we may continue to see numbers come in under the current average of 2.4 (for McCain) that continue to chip away at that margin. In fact, I think that is likely. Between now and election day, we are likely to see polls that are in the +/-3 point range with some outliers thrown in.
Just for the heck of it let's do an exercise here. What if we lopped off all the polls conducted before Obama clinched the Democratic nomination; everything from June 3 on (FHQ has done something similar before.)? How would that affect things? Once we reweight the polls based on a lower number of days in the period examined, we find that Obama gains, but that McCain's lead shrinks to only 1.7 points (down from 2.4). What is North Carolina's magic number then? Not surprisingly, it drops, but not to anymore manageable a level. It would still require a poll with Obama ahead by 25 points to turn North Carolina blue. Obviously, the the number of pro-Obama polls it would take to successfully chip away at that average and turn it blue would be far fewer in this instance.
This is in line with my thinking about North Carolina. I'm a native Tar Heel and though I'm not there now, I still have family ties to the state. My sense is that North Carolina is a "close but not quite" state for Obama. Sure, I've been out of the state for a while, but North Carolina still feels (And yes, that certainly strays from the black and white we get from the numbers typically leaned on here at FHQ.) like a state that is a continued demographic shift away from becoming less reliably Republican -- at the presidential level -- and more reliably competitive. It speaks to the Democratic tilt of this election that North Carolina is talked about in the same breath with the Ohios and Floridas on the map.
UPDATE: Our discussion has extended beyond North Carolina in the comments to encompass a discussion of much of the South. Scott has taken the Census data on the African American percentage of the population and regressed that on Obama's support among whites in these states. A simple bivariate regression with some rather interesting results.
Here are the states Scott looked at (all have at one point or another shown John McCain and Barack Obama within single digits of each other):
Virginia: 39% (20%)
North Carolina: 38% (22%)
Georgia: 28% (30%)
South Carolina: 25% (29%)
Louisiana: 18% (32%)
Mississippi: 16% (37%)
Below is the plot of that relationship; one that shows a rather high correlation between the two variables. The data above are rank ordered based on the dependent variable (Obama's white support) and are displayed as such below.
| Obama's White Support as a Function of the Percentage African American |
[Click Graphic to Enlarge]A big tip of the cap to SarahLawrenceScott for a nice addition to our discussion. Kudos!
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/20/08)
The Electoral College Map (10/19/08)
The Electoral College Map (10/18/08)
Sunday, October 19, 2008
The Electoral College Map (10/20/08)
After Saturday's [eventual] update, the comments turned into a wish list of which states should be polled that had not been polled in a while [or every much recently]. Most of that wish list was comprised of states from two basic categories: 1) Blue states that had either polled really closely following convention season but has not really been revisited since or 2) Red states with neighbors that had had tight polling margins but lack of survey work being conducted within their borders. There's one from each category among the nine polls from seven different states. Maine represents the first group while Montana meets the description of the second.
The Pine Tree state had been polling in the low to mid-teens in favor of Obama for much of the summer. But since that time, Maine has drawn closer after a series of polls that came out immediately after the conventions and extended past the bounce period. Only time and more polling will tell us whether this new poll is an outlier or not.
In Montana, there has just been a drop off in polling; not that there was ever a flurry of them from the Treasure state. But after the Palin selection and the conventions, both Montana and North Dakota seemed to jump toward McCain and that appeared to have held up around and after the Lehman collapse triggered the financial sector's problems (the latest round of them at least). But within the last week a few polls from North Dakota have had us all rethinking how well those two states would fall in line with the McCain-Palin ticket. The answer looks to be not as well as originally thought perhaps. Sure this is just one poll, but Montana is essentially back where it was prior to convention season: close, but likely out of Obama's grasp. [Yes, 2008 is the never say never election, but I'll stick by that choice of phrasing until we get some more evidence.] The real news is that the Treasure state is not necessarily a complete write-off for Obama at this point. But it could be a temporary jump as was the case in...
...West Virginia. The Mountain state drew considerably closer within the last week, but on the strength of a couple of polls out today, moves back into the McCain lean category after a short stint as a toss up. That Obama +8 margin in the ARG poll last week, shook things up some, but West Virginia has worked its way out of the mix for the time being. It is certainly closer than has been in the last two presidential cycles, but like Montana, West Virginia just feels like another one of close but not quite states for the Illinois senator.
As we said earlier today, the Powell endorsement and the September fund-raising total for Obama made this a difficult news day for John McCain. It did help that there was some added daylight in West Virginia, but that was cancelled out by the shrinking lead in Montana. There was a solid poll out of Kentucky, but that was cancelled out by the continued double digit Obama leads in Minnesota and Wisconsin. And what does that leave the Arizona senator? Well, there is that one point lead in Ohio. Sadly though, McCain has averaged one or two leads a week among all the polls that are conducted in the Buckeye state and, typically, they are one or two point edges. Meanwhile, Obama has had results ranging from a tie to six points. Ohio is still very close, but it favors Obama ever so slightly all the same. An already poor news day (and one leading into the new week) was not helped especially much by the polling that was released.
[Click Map to Enlarge]
And though, West Virginia's five electoral votes shifted toward safer McCain territory, the underlying electoral vote distribution remained the same, 338-200 for Obama. What West Virginia's exit does, though, is to trim the list of toss up states by one more state. The toss ups now number just six with just 91 electoral votes at stake. Obama has the advantage in four of those six states and has the polls trending in his direction in the remaining two. Now, it is true that the national polls have seemingly peaked for Obama, and this week will be about determining whether the state polls will follow, and if so, by how much? In the end, even if McCain was able to sweep the toss up states, he would still come up short in his bid for the White House.
The Watch List loses both Montana and West Virginia as both are now wedged in the middle area of the McCain lean category. The focus though centers on the four states we spoke about yesterday. Florida, Missouri, Nevada and Ohio are still the states to watch. All retain the same magic number today with the exception of Ohio -- the only state among that group to be polled today. The Buckeye state would have to hand John McCain a lead of 10 points in the next poll to swing the state in the Arizona senator's direction. That's down a point from a day ago. Missouri is already among the McCain toss ups, so that one is the easiest for the Arizona senator to keep. Florida, however, is his most likely target. It would take a three point lead in the next poll out of Florida to shift the Sunshine state across the partisan line into McCain territory.
One other state to watch is Pennsylvania. The Muhlenberg College tracking poll saw Obama peak last week and is starting to show signs of drawing closer. But the question with the Keystone state, is how much closer. The Illinois senator is already pretty consistently over 50% in most of those polls and if the margin settles in around the 10 point mark, Pennsylvania will sooner rather than later shift into the strong Obama category. If that one goes off McCain's list, the Arizona senator's options will be severely limited.
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/19/08)
The Electoral College Map (10/18/08)
Reminder and a Note
The Pine Tree state had been polling in the low to mid-teens in favor of Obama for much of the summer. But since that time, Maine has drawn closer after a series of polls that came out immediately after the conventions and extended past the bounce period. Only time and more polling will tell us whether this new poll is an outlier or not.
In Montana, there has just been a drop off in polling; not that there was ever a flurry of them from the Treasure state. But after the Palin selection and the conventions, both Montana and North Dakota seemed to jump toward McCain and that appeared to have held up around and after the Lehman collapse triggered the financial sector's problems (the latest round of them at least). But within the last week a few polls from North Dakota have had us all rethinking how well those two states would fall in line with the McCain-Palin ticket. The answer looks to be not as well as originally thought perhaps. Sure this is just one poll, but Montana is essentially back where it was prior to convention season: close, but likely out of Obama's grasp. [Yes, 2008 is the never say never election, but I'll stick by that choice of phrasing until we get some more evidence.] The real news is that the Treasure state is not necessarily a complete write-off for Obama at this point. But it could be a temporary jump as was the case in...
| New Polls (Oct. 19) | |||
| State | Poll | Margin | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kentucky | Research 2000/Daily Kos | +14 | |
| Maine | Research 2000/Daily Kos | +15 | |
| Minnesota | Research 2000/Daily Kos | +13 | |
| Minnesota | Star Tribune | +11 | |
| Montana | Research 2000/Daily Kos | +4 | |
| Ohio | Mason-Dixon/NBC | +1 | |
| West Virginia | Mason-Dixon/NBC | +6 | |
| West Virginia | Public Policy Polling | +8 | |
| Wisconsin | Mason-Dixon/NBC | +12 | |
...West Virginia. The Mountain state drew considerably closer within the last week, but on the strength of a couple of polls out today, moves back into the McCain lean category after a short stint as a toss up. That Obama +8 margin in the ARG poll last week, shook things up some, but West Virginia has worked its way out of the mix for the time being. It is certainly closer than has been in the last two presidential cycles, but like Montana, West Virginia just feels like another one of close but not quite states for the Illinois senator.
| Changes (Oct. 19) | |||
| State | Before | After | |
|---|---|---|---|
| West Virginia | Toss Up McCain | McCain lean | |
As we said earlier today, the Powell endorsement and the September fund-raising total for Obama made this a difficult news day for John McCain. It did help that there was some added daylight in West Virginia, but that was cancelled out by the shrinking lead in Montana. There was a solid poll out of Kentucky, but that was cancelled out by the continued double digit Obama leads in Minnesota and Wisconsin. And what does that leave the Arizona senator? Well, there is that one point lead in Ohio. Sadly though, McCain has averaged one or two leads a week among all the polls that are conducted in the Buckeye state and, typically, they are one or two point edges. Meanwhile, Obama has had results ranging from a tie to six points. Ohio is still very close, but it favors Obama ever so slightly all the same. An already poor news day (and one leading into the new week) was not helped especially much by the polling that was released.
[Click Map to Enlarge]And though, West Virginia's five electoral votes shifted toward safer McCain territory, the underlying electoral vote distribution remained the same, 338-200 for Obama. What West Virginia's exit does, though, is to trim the list of toss up states by one more state. The toss ups now number just six with just 91 electoral votes at stake. Obama has the advantage in four of those six states and has the polls trending in his direction in the remaining two. Now, it is true that the national polls have seemingly peaked for Obama, and this week will be about determining whether the state polls will follow, and if so, by how much? In the end, even if McCain was able to sweep the toss up states, he would still come up short in his bid for the White House.
| The Electoral College Spectrum* | ||||
| HI-4 (7)** | ME-4 (157) | NH-4 (264/278) | WV-5 (160) | LA-9 (67) |
| VT-3 (10) | WA-11 (168) | CO-9*** (273/274) | MT-3 (155) | KY-8 (58) |
| RI-4 (14) | OR-7 (175) | VA-13 (286/265) | GA-15 (152) | KS-6 (50) |
| MA-12 (26) | IA-7 (182) | NV-5 (291/252) | MS-6 (137) | TN-11 (44) |
| MD-10 (36) | NJ-15 (197) | OH-20 (311/247) | TX-34 (131) | NE-5 (33) |
| NY-31 (67) | MN-10 (207) | FL-27 (338/227) | AR-6 (97) | AL-9 (28) |
| DE-3 (70) | WI-10 (217) | MO-11 (349/200) | AK-3 (91) | WY-3 (19) |
| CT-7 (77) | PA-21 (238) | NC-15 (364/189) | SC-8 (88) | ID-4 (16) |
| IL-21 (98) | NM-5 (243) | IN-11 (174) | AZ-10 (80) | OK-7 (12) |
| CA-55 (153) | MI-17 (260) | ND-3 (163) | SD-3 (70) | UT-5 (5) |
| *Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Obama's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 274 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***Colorado is the state where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. It is currently favoring Obama, thus the blue text in that cell. | ||||
The Watch List loses both Montana and West Virginia as both are now wedged in the middle area of the McCain lean category. The focus though centers on the four states we spoke about yesterday. Florida, Missouri, Nevada and Ohio are still the states to watch. All retain the same magic number today with the exception of Ohio -- the only state among that group to be polled today. The Buckeye state would have to hand John McCain a lead of 10 points in the next poll to swing the state in the Arizona senator's direction. That's down a point from a day ago. Missouri is already among the McCain toss ups, so that one is the easiest for the Arizona senator to keep. Florida, however, is his most likely target. It would take a three point lead in the next poll out of Florida to shift the Sunshine state across the partisan line into McCain territory.
| The Watch List* | |||
| State | Switch | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado | from Obama lean | to Toss Up Obama | |
| Florida | from Toss Up Obama | to Toss Up McCain | |
| Indiana | from McCain lean | to Toss Up McCain | |
| Minnesota | from Strong Obama | to Obama lean | |
| Missouri | from Toss Up McCain | to Toss Up Obama | |
| Nevada | from Toss Up Obama | to Toss Up McCain | |
| New Mexico | from Obama lean | to Strong Obama | |
| North Carolina | from Toss Up McCain | to McCain lean | |
| Ohio | from Toss Up Obama | to Toss Up McCain | |
| Pennsylvania | from Obama lean | to Strong Obama | |
| Wisconsin | from Strong Obama | to Obama lean | |
| *Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. | |||
One other state to watch is Pennsylvania. The Muhlenberg College tracking poll saw Obama peak last week and is starting to show signs of drawing closer. But the question with the Keystone state, is how much closer. The Illinois senator is already pretty consistently over 50% in most of those polls and if the margin settles in around the 10 point mark, Pennsylvania will sooner rather than later shift into the strong Obama category. If that one goes off McCain's list, the Arizona senator's options will be severely limited.
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/19/08)
The Electoral College Map (10/18/08)
Reminder and a Note
The Electoral College Map (10/19/08)
The slow Saturdays continue, but this week's has given way to news-packed Sunday, which from all indications will favor Obama heading into the new week. But Colin Powell endorsements and the revelation that your campaign has raised $150 million during the month of September tend to do that. It isn't as if the McCain campaign didn't try in their own right to create a topic of discussion at the outset of a new news week. Sarah Palin's appearance on Saturday Night Live was pretty funny.
All those links aside, Saturday lacked as far as the number of polls were concerned, but certainly did not lack in impact. The Hamilton poll of Florida showed Obama ahead by four points and that once again shifted Florida to the blue side of the partisan line (see Electoral College Spectrum below). Like Nevada, Ohio and Virginia before it, the Sunshine state took a couple of days to work out the kinks. All four have turned blue recently, but all four took some time to switch over fully, switching, then switching back before turning blue for an extended period of time. Now, it could be that Florida turns pink again and stays there, but if the Sunshine state is like any of its fellow Obama state converts, then it is likely to stay blue for a little while. Yeah, I realize there's only a little while left in the race. That makes this (re-)move even more significant. But Florida is still close and I'll address what McCain will need from the polls in the coming days to pull it back to the Republican side of the partisan line.
There were also new polls from North Carolina and Wisconsin. Neither is particularly out of line with other recent polls in the Tar Heel and Badger states. Both, however, are outside of the weighted averages of each here at FHQ. Wisconsin is already in the strong Obama category, having switched due to the fact that the threshold between the strong and lean categories was dropped to seven points just yesterday. But the Badger state's movement further into safety for Obama has continued unabated following the meltdown on Wall Street. The same is true in North Carolina. The starting point is all that differs. Wisconsin has hovered between a lean and a toss up for Obama most of the year and has moved into a stronger position for the Illinois senator. North Carolina has also moved into a stronger position for Obama, but started out as a McCain lean state and has gone back and forth between a lean and a toss up for much of the summer. The polling movement in the Tar Heel state since late September has favored Obama and pulled into a much more competitive status, but it still favors McCain at this point overall.
[Click Map to Enlarge]
With Florida on the blue side of the partisan line again, Obama's advantage in the electoral college is back up to 138 electoral votes. But as was pointed out in yesterday's update, the toss ups on the blue side of the Electoral College Spectrum just serve the purpose of padding the stats so to speak. If Obama wins in his strong and lean states, he will pass 270 electoral votes without needing any of those toss up states, blue or pink. In terms of entering the White House that means that Obama would work closer to mandate-claiming electoral vote margin on election day. But there are still two weeks left in this race. Let us not put the cart before the horse, eh, Democrats.
And as there are two weeks left, there's still something to talk about strategy-wise. There are two potential dynamics at work here that we likely won't have a firm answer to until (or after) election day. On the one hand, there is no evidence that there is a Bradley effect at play in this race, but we never really find out until the votes are cast. On the other hand, there's the possibility that there is, as the panel on This Week called it this morning, an Obama effect; that there are conservatives who are telling friends and, more importantly, pollsters that they are voting for McCain but will vote for Obama instead. Should it continue to look as if Obama will win as comfortably as it seems he might at this point, those folks may be more inclined to jump on the bandwagon. Again, we won't know that either effect (or a combination of the two) is taking place until after the fact. [Hey, we have to have something to examine after the election, right?] Regardless, Obama's financial situation puts McCain and his campaign at a real disadvantage, causing them to play defense in Bush states instead of competing effectively in states like Michigan or Wisconsin.
Turning to the Watch List, Florida, Nevada and Ohio are still the states to watch closely for the time being. Those three along with Missouri (which joined the list yesterday...but was mistakenly omitted) are the states that could cross the partisan line in the event new polling is released. Missouri is a long way off from completely switching over, though. The Show-Me state's magic number is at 14 for Obama. In other words, it would take a poll showing Obama up 14 points to pull the state into the blue. The more likely route is that a series of polls favors Obama between now and election day. The situation in Ohio is similar for McCain. It would take an 11 point margin favoring the Arizona senator to turn the Buckeye state pink. Of course, that is more a function of the number of polls conducted in Ohio over the course of this campaign. The reality is that Ohio is close and has been throughout the process. The magic numbers for McCain in Florida and Nevada are more manageable, but no less difficult for the Arizona senator to overcome down the stretch. In Florida, McCain needs a +3 margin in the next poll to turn the state pink, and in Nevada, the Arizona senator would need a six point margin to accomplish the same.
There is some evidence that the Obama surge has peaked and is receding at the national level. On the state level, the evidence so far is scant, but the state polls tend to run on a lag behind the national polls. This week will be the time to see if that recession spreads to the state polls as well. There are some battleground polls out already today that may shake things up, but we'll have to see their effect a little later.
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/18/08)
Reminder and a Note
The Electoral College Map (10/17/08)
| New Polls (Oct. 18) | |||
| State | Poll | Margin | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Florida | Hamilton | +4 | |
| North Carolina | Research 2000/Daily Kos | +2 | |
| Wisconsin | UW-Milwaukee | +15.1 | |
All those links aside, Saturday lacked as far as the number of polls were concerned, but certainly did not lack in impact. The Hamilton poll of Florida showed Obama ahead by four points and that once again shifted Florida to the blue side of the partisan line (see Electoral College Spectrum below). Like Nevada, Ohio and Virginia before it, the Sunshine state took a couple of days to work out the kinks. All four have turned blue recently, but all four took some time to switch over fully, switching, then switching back before turning blue for an extended period of time. Now, it could be that Florida turns pink again and stays there, but if the Sunshine state is like any of its fellow Obama state converts, then it is likely to stay blue for a little while. Yeah, I realize there's only a little while left in the race. That makes this (re-)move even more significant. But Florida is still close and I'll address what McCain will need from the polls in the coming days to pull it back to the Republican side of the partisan line.
| Changes (Oct. 18) | |||
| State | Before | After | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Florida | Toss Up McCain | Toss Up Obama | |
There were also new polls from North Carolina and Wisconsin. Neither is particularly out of line with other recent polls in the Tar Heel and Badger states. Both, however, are outside of the weighted averages of each here at FHQ. Wisconsin is already in the strong Obama category, having switched due to the fact that the threshold between the strong and lean categories was dropped to seven points just yesterday. But the Badger state's movement further into safety for Obama has continued unabated following the meltdown on Wall Street. The same is true in North Carolina. The starting point is all that differs. Wisconsin has hovered between a lean and a toss up for Obama most of the year and has moved into a stronger position for the Illinois senator. North Carolina has also moved into a stronger position for Obama, but started out as a McCain lean state and has gone back and forth between a lean and a toss up for much of the summer. The polling movement in the Tar Heel state since late September has favored Obama and pulled into a much more competitive status, but it still favors McCain at this point overall.
[Click Map to Enlarge]With Florida on the blue side of the partisan line again, Obama's advantage in the electoral college is back up to 138 electoral votes. But as was pointed out in yesterday's update, the toss ups on the blue side of the Electoral College Spectrum just serve the purpose of padding the stats so to speak. If Obama wins in his strong and lean states, he will pass 270 electoral votes without needing any of those toss up states, blue or pink. In terms of entering the White House that means that Obama would work closer to mandate-claiming electoral vote margin on election day. But there are still two weeks left in this race. Let us not put the cart before the horse, eh, Democrats.
| The Electoral College Spectrum* | ||||
| HI-4 (7)** | ME-4 (157) | NH-4 (264/278) | ND-3 (158) | LA-9 (67) |
| VT-3 (10) | WA-11 (168) | CO-9*** (273/274) | MT-3 (155) | KY-8 (58) |
| RI-4 (14) | OR-7 (175) | VA-13 (286/265) | GA-15 (152) | KS-6 (50) |
| MA-12 (26) | IA-7 (182) | NV-5 (291/252) | MS-6 (137) | TN-11 (44) |
| MD-10 (36) | NJ-15 (197) | OH-20 (311/247) | TX-34 (131) | NE-5 (33) |
| NY-31 (67) | WI-10 (207) | FL-27 (338/227) | AR-6 (97) | AL-9 (28) |
| DE-3 (70) | MN-10 (217) | MO-11 (349/200) | AK-3 (91) | WY-3 (19) |
| CT-7 (77) | PA-21 (238) | NC-15 (364/189) | SC-8 (88) | ID-4 (16) |
| IL-21 (98) | NM-5 (243) | WV-5 (369/174) | AZ-10 (80) | OK-7 (12) |
| CA-55 (153) | MI-17 (260) | IN-11 (169) | SD-3 (70) | UT-5 (5) |
| *Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Obama's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 274 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***Colorado is the state where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. It is currently favoring Obama, thus the blue text in that cell. | ||||
And as there are two weeks left, there's still something to talk about strategy-wise. There are two potential dynamics at work here that we likely won't have a firm answer to until (or after) election day. On the one hand, there is no evidence that there is a Bradley effect at play in this race, but we never really find out until the votes are cast. On the other hand, there's the possibility that there is, as the panel on This Week called it this morning, an Obama effect; that there are conservatives who are telling friends and, more importantly, pollsters that they are voting for McCain but will vote for Obama instead. Should it continue to look as if Obama will win as comfortably as it seems he might at this point, those folks may be more inclined to jump on the bandwagon. Again, we won't know that either effect (or a combination of the two) is taking place until after the fact. [Hey, we have to have something to examine after the election, right?] Regardless, Obama's financial situation puts McCain and his campaign at a real disadvantage, causing them to play defense in Bush states instead of competing effectively in states like Michigan or Wisconsin.
| The Watch List* | |||
| State | Switch | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado | from Obama lean | to Toss Up Obama | |
| Florida | from Toss Up Obama | to Toss Up McCain | |
| Indiana | from McCain lean | to Toss Up McCain | |
| Minnesota | from Strong Obama | to Obama lean | |
| Missouri | from Toss Up McCain | to Toss Up Obama | |
| Montana | from McCain lean | to Strong McCain | |
| Nevada | from Toss Up Obama | to Toss Up McCain | |
| New Mexico | from Obama lean | to Strong Obama | |
| North Carolina | from Toss Up McCain | to McCain lean | |
| Ohio | from Toss Up Obama | to Toss Up McCain | |
| Pennsylvania | from Obama lean | to Strong Obama | |
| West Virginia | from Toss Up McCain | to McCain lean | |
| Wisconsin | from Strong Obama | to Obama lean | |
| *Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. | |||
Turning to the Watch List, Florida, Nevada and Ohio are still the states to watch closely for the time being. Those three along with Missouri (which joined the list yesterday...but was mistakenly omitted) are the states that could cross the partisan line in the event new polling is released. Missouri is a long way off from completely switching over, though. The Show-Me state's magic number is at 14 for Obama. In other words, it would take a poll showing Obama up 14 points to pull the state into the blue. The more likely route is that a series of polls favors Obama between now and election day. The situation in Ohio is similar for McCain. It would take an 11 point margin favoring the Arizona senator to turn the Buckeye state pink. Of course, that is more a function of the number of polls conducted in Ohio over the course of this campaign. The reality is that Ohio is close and has been throughout the process. The magic numbers for McCain in Florida and Nevada are more manageable, but no less difficult for the Arizona senator to overcome down the stretch. In Florida, McCain needs a +3 margin in the next poll to turn the state pink, and in Nevada, the Arizona senator would need a six point margin to accomplish the same.
There is some evidence that the Obama surge has peaked and is receding at the national level. On the state level, the evidence so far is scant, but the state polls tend to run on a lag behind the national polls. This week will be the time to see if that recession spreads to the state polls as well. There are some battleground polls out already today that may shake things up, but we'll have to see their effect a little later.
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/18/08)
Reminder and a Note
The Electoral College Map (10/17/08)
Saturday, October 18, 2008
The Electoral College Map (10/18/08)
If Thursday's polls were in friendly territory for Obama, Friday's polls were much more friendly to John McCain than they have been in a while. Well, having polls released from Alaska, Mississippi, Texas and Wyoming never hurts. But it wasn't just ruby red states where the Arizona senator got some favorable polling. For the first time in that last little while there was a poll that showed McCain ahead in Florida. And given that the state had just turned blue here at FHQ, that can never be seen in a poor light. Between that Survey USA poll and the Research 2000 poll that had Obama up four points, the Sunshine state was tipped back into McCain toss up territory, but only just barely. If the McCain-friendly poll proves to be an outlier, then Florida will turn back. As we enter a new week, though, the situation in the Sunshine staet will definitely be something to keep an eye on.
And while Friday's polls were more positive for McCain than a set of polling has been for the Arizona senator, it wasn't all good. The spread in Colorado continues to be troubling for the McCain campaign. The Centennial state is the state where McCain would cross over 270 electoral votes if he was able to sweep the toss up states (blue and pink). That may seem a stretch, but without Colorado, such an effort would be all for naught.
The other big news of the day was yet another poll showing a tight race in North Dakota. The state has been sporadically polled this year, but has periodically looked close. Following the Palin selection and the Republican convention it looked as if the door had been closed on North Dakota, especially when the Obama campaign pulled out of the state. But, as has been the case in many states across the country, the economic crisis has seemingly triggered a reevaluation of the race and has brought Obama closer in the process. This has gone beyond outlier status as we now have two polls (Three if you count the union-aligned, Democratic poll that showed Obama up three points.) that show a much more competitive race in North Dakota than just a month ago.
Florida, though, is not the only change to speak of today. Due to the time crunch in the presidential race, FHQ has once again decided to shift the category-defining thresholds in our graduated weighted averages. It is our feeling that with just more than two weeks remaining in this campaign that three points is the limit to the ground that can be made up (down from four points). For example, during simultaneously occurring debate season and economic situation, Obama essentially gained two points in many of the crucial states. If such high-profile events don't shift the averages anymore than two points, then the closing argument phase will be hard-pressed to match that without intervention from some external event or events. Such a shift isn't impossible, but it is decreasingly likely with each passing day.
The line between the toss up category and the lean category, then, is now at a margin of three points. Similarly, the line between the strong and lean states has been moved down from a nine point margin to seven points. The effect of both shifts is to push Colorado and and Indiana into the Obama lean and McCain lean categories, respectively, and to bring Minnesota and Wisconsin into the strong Obama area.
[Click Map to Enlarge]
What that does is make the map even darker, leaving just a handful of toss up states from Virginia all the way down to West Virginia (see the middle column of the Electoral College Spectrum below) as the remaining seven toss up states. Together they amount to 96 electoral votes. But the Colorado shift into the Obama lean category if rather monumental. With those nine electoral votes added to the two "safer" categories (strong and lean), Obama is now over 270 when the two are combined. Translation: the toss ups are inconsequential if Obama wins his strong and lean states. So despite the fact that Florida turns pink once again and the electoral vote margin shrinks to 311-227, Obama is in a better position with just two weeks left in this race.
The Electoral College Spectrum doesn't see that many changes to the rankings, but with the threshold shift, the strong Obama states now stretch over halfway down the second column from the left. On the right side, McCain's strong states held steady, not adding any states in the shift.
The move of the lines means that the states clustered around them is different as well. Florida, Nevada and Ohio remain -- close to crossing the partisan line over to the opposing side -- but now states like Pennsylvania and New Mexico are close to moving into a safer position for Obama. Indeed, most of the states on the Watch List are now colored in some shade of blue. Montana along with North Carolina and West Virginia are in positions to move into one of the safer categories for McCain. All of those states have been moving toward Obama of late, however. With a new week coming, we'll have to see if the Obama surge has peaked, plateaued or have begun to dissipate, bring the two candidates closer together.
UPDATE: Missouri was mistakenly omitted from the Watch List. The new Rasmussen poll of the Show-Me state pulled Missouri's average under the one percentage point mark.
Recent Posts:
Reminder and a Note
The Electoral College Map (10/17/08)
The Electoral College Map (10/16/08)
| New Polls (Oct. 17) | |||
| State | Poll | Margin | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska | Research 2000/Daily Kos | +19 | |
| California | Survey USA | +24 | |
| Colorado | Rasmussen | +7 | |
| Florida | Research 2000 | +4 | |
| Florida | Survey USA | +2 | |
| Georgia | Research 2000/Daily Kos | +6 | |
| Mississippi | Research 2000/Daily Kos | +10 | |
| Missouri | Rasmussen | +6 | |
| Nevada | Rasmussen | +5 | |
| North Dakota | Research 2000/Daily Kos | 0 | |
| Oregon | Research 2000/Daily Kos | +15 | |
| Texas | Research 2000/Daily Kos | +12 | |
| Wyoming | Research 2000/Daily Kos | +23 | |
And while Friday's polls were more positive for McCain than a set of polling has been for the Arizona senator, it wasn't all good. The spread in Colorado continues to be troubling for the McCain campaign. The Centennial state is the state where McCain would cross over 270 electoral votes if he was able to sweep the toss up states (blue and pink). That may seem a stretch, but without Colorado, such an effort would be all for naught.
The other big news of the day was yet another poll showing a tight race in North Dakota. The state has been sporadically polled this year, but has periodically looked close. Following the Palin selection and the Republican convention it looked as if the door had been closed on North Dakota, especially when the Obama campaign pulled out of the state. But, as has been the case in many states across the country, the economic crisis has seemingly triggered a reevaluation of the race and has brought Obama closer in the process. This has gone beyond outlier status as we now have two polls (Three if you count the union-aligned, Democratic poll that showed Obama up three points.) that show a much more competitive race in North Dakota than just a month ago.
| Changes (Oct. 17) | |||
| State | Before | After | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado* | Toss Up Obama | Obama lean | |
| Florida | Toss Up Obama | Toss Up McCain | |
| Indiana* | Toss Up McCain | McCain lean | |
| Minnesota* | Obama lean | Strong Obama | |
| Wisconsin* | Obama lean | Strong Obama | |
| *Change brought about by shifting of the lean/strong and toss up/lean lines, not new polling. | |||
Florida, though, is not the only change to speak of today. Due to the time crunch in the presidential race, FHQ has once again decided to shift the category-defining thresholds in our graduated weighted averages. It is our feeling that with just more than two weeks remaining in this campaign that three points is the limit to the ground that can be made up (down from four points). For example, during simultaneously occurring debate season and economic situation, Obama essentially gained two points in many of the crucial states. If such high-profile events don't shift the averages anymore than two points, then the closing argument phase will be hard-pressed to match that without intervention from some external event or events. Such a shift isn't impossible, but it is decreasingly likely with each passing day.
The line between the toss up category and the lean category, then, is now at a margin of three points. Similarly, the line between the strong and lean states has been moved down from a nine point margin to seven points. The effect of both shifts is to push Colorado and and Indiana into the Obama lean and McCain lean categories, respectively, and to bring Minnesota and Wisconsin into the strong Obama area.
[Click Map to Enlarge]What that does is make the map even darker, leaving just a handful of toss up states from Virginia all the way down to West Virginia (see the middle column of the Electoral College Spectrum below) as the remaining seven toss up states. Together they amount to 96 electoral votes. But the Colorado shift into the Obama lean category if rather monumental. With those nine electoral votes added to the two "safer" categories (strong and lean), Obama is now over 270 when the two are combined. Translation: the toss ups are inconsequential if Obama wins his strong and lean states. So despite the fact that Florida turns pink once again and the electoral vote margin shrinks to 311-227, Obama is in a better position with just two weeks left in this race.
| The Electoral College Spectrum* | ||||
| HI-4 (7)** | ME-4 (157) | NH-4 (264/278) | ND-3 (158) | LA-9 (67) |
| VT-3 (10) | WA-11 (168) | CO-9*** (273/274) | MT-3 (155) | KY-8 (58) |
| RI-4 (14) | OR-7 (175) | VA-13 (286/265) | GA-15 (152) | KS-6 (50) |
| MA-12 (26) | IA-7 (182) | NV-5 (291/252) | MS-6 (137) | TN-11 (44) |
| MD-10 (36) | NJ-15 (197) | OH-20 (311/247) | TX-34 (131) | NE-5 (33) |
| NY-31 (67) | MN-10 (207) | FL-27 (338/227) | AR-6 (97) | AL-9 (28) |
| DE-3 (70) | WI-10 (217) | MO-11 (349/200) | AK-3 (91) | WY-3 (19) |
| CT-7 (77) | PA-21 (238) | NC-15 (364/189) | SC-8 (88) | ID-4 (16) |
| IL-21 (98) | NM-5 (243) | WV-5 (369/174) | AZ-10 (80) | OK-7 (12) |
| CA-55 (153) | MI-17 (260) | IN-11 (169) | SD-3 (70) | UT-5 (5) |
| *Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Obama's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 274 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***Colorado is the state where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. It is currently favoring Obama, thus the blue text in that cell. | ||||
The Electoral College Spectrum doesn't see that many changes to the rankings, but with the threshold shift, the strong Obama states now stretch over halfway down the second column from the left. On the right side, McCain's strong states held steady, not adding any states in the shift.
| The Watch List* | |||
| State | Switch | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado | from Obama lean | to Toss Up Obama | |
| Florida | from Toss Up McCain | to Toss Up Obama | |
| Indiana | from McCain lean | to Toss Up McCain | |
| Minnesota | from Strong Obama | to Obama lean | |
| Missouri | from Toss Up McCain | to Toss Up Obama | |
| Montana | from McCain lean | to Strong McCain | |
| Nevada | from Toss Up Obama | to Toss Up McCain | |
| New Mexico | from Obama lean | to Strong Obama | |
| North Carolina | from Toss Up McCain | to McCain lean | |
| Ohio | from Toss Up Obama | to Toss Up McCain | |
| Pennsylvania | from Obama lean | to Strong Obama | |
| West Virginia | from Toss Up McCain | to McCain lean | |
| Wisconsin | from Strong Obama | to Obama lean | |
| *Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. | |||
The move of the lines means that the states clustered around them is different as well. Florida, Nevada and Ohio remain -- close to crossing the partisan line over to the opposing side -- but now states like Pennsylvania and New Mexico are close to moving into a safer position for Obama. Indeed, most of the states on the Watch List are now colored in some shade of blue. Montana along with North Carolina and West Virginia are in positions to move into one of the safer categories for McCain. All of those states have been moving toward Obama of late, however. With a new week coming, we'll have to see if the Obama surge has peaked, plateaued or have begun to dissipate, bring the two candidates closer together.
UPDATE: Missouri was mistakenly omitted from the Watch List. The new Rasmussen poll of the Show-Me state pulled Missouri's average under the one percentage point mark.
Recent Posts:
Reminder and a Note
The Electoral College Map (10/17/08)
The Electoral College Map (10/16/08)
Friday, October 17, 2008
Reminder and a Note
For tonight's update, the thresholds between categories will be lowered to reflect the fact that there are just 18 days until the election. In other words, there will likely be some changes to the map that are a function of the switch and not a fundamental shift in FHQ's methodology.
That's the reminder. And the note?
Well, I've been looking at some of the Bradley/Wilder effect data today and will hopefully have a post up concerning that over the weekend. I could probably get that out tonight, but with the switch from the line drop, it may be a bit too much scenario analysis. As such I'll separate the two and get the Bradley/Wilder effect post out later in the weekend. Hopefully I've caught enough people before they've headed out the door for the weekend.
There will be some other changes to the map tonight as well. But I'll make you come back to see those.
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/17/08)
The Electoral College Map (10/16/08)
Live Blog and Open Thread: Final Presidential Debate
That's the reminder. And the note?
Well, I've been looking at some of the Bradley/Wilder effect data today and will hopefully have a post up concerning that over the weekend. I could probably get that out tonight, but with the switch from the line drop, it may be a bit too much scenario analysis. As such I'll separate the two and get the Bradley/Wilder effect post out later in the weekend. Hopefully I've caught enough people before they've headed out the door for the weekend.
There will be some other changes to the map tonight as well. But I'll make you come back to see those.
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/17/08)
The Electoral College Map (10/16/08)
Live Blog and Open Thread: Final Presidential Debate
Thursday, October 16, 2008
The Electoral College Map (10/17/08)
Thursday was slow poll day and none of the polls released today were from particularly friendly territory for the McCain campaign. Connecticut, New York, and Oregon are expected to be blue states and nothing out of Pennsylvania recently has indicated that the Keystone state won't be as well. In Ohio and Virginia, though, there was some interesting data.
The tie in Rasmussen's survey of the Buckeye state is interesting in that it breaks from what we have seen out of Ohio recently. But in the context of the other Rasmussen polls of late, it isn't a stretch. Even in the post-Lehman environment, Obama never got higher than the two point margin earlier in the week in the Rasmussen/FOX battleground poll. Everything else from Rasmussen in Ohio has shown a race oscillating within the McCain +1 to Obama +2 range; basically a tie. Taken alone, then, this poll makes it look like Ohio is tightening some. It isn't because it was already tight. It has been this whole time. Obama just has the slight advantage now. And as I explained in yesterday's post, it is likely to stay there.
In Virgina, polls continue to provide Obama with margins outside of the margin of error. As such, the Old Dominion is slowly creeping out of the zone of competitiveness. Tomorrow's update will lower the lean/toss up line to three points to reflect the difficulty both candidates will have in making up more than three points over the final 18 days of the race. I don't want to stretch beyond the parameters of the Watch List, but Virginia would be under 1.5 points from moving into the Obama lean category with the line at three points. But that 1.5 points will be tough to break with such a short period of time until the election. Like Ohio, Virginia is close -- not as close -- but is currently favoring the junior senator from Illinois. It should also be noted that the Christopher Newport University poll has shifted 15 points since last month. Prior to the mess on Wall Street, CNU had the race in Virginia at McCain +9. That's a pretty big turnaround in just one one's time.
[Click Map to Enlarge]
With just two polls in states of consequence (Sorry, Connecticut, New York and Pennsylvania. This is the hand the electoral college has dealt you in October of 2008.), there just wasn't that much of an opportunity for any further redistribution of electoral college votes. Virginia isn't even on the Watch List and wasn't expected to shift necessarily. What that does mean is that the tally remains 338-200 in favor of Obama. If FHQ's graduated weighted averages of the states reflect how each state would vote, then Obama would emerge victorious from the electoral college.
The map stays the same and the Electoral College Spectrum only saw minor alterations. The race is still a battle in the states from Colorado on down to Indiana in that center column. It is within those states that this campaign is currently being waged. And as we discussed yesterday, the momentum is seemingly behind Obama in all those states save Indiana. And that may be more a function of a lack of polling in the Hoosier state over the last week or so than anything else. Even so, Indiana is closer to switching to a McCain lean than to an Obama toss up as we can see on the Watch List below. The list is unchanged since yesterday and that means that Florida, Nevada and Ohio are still the the states to keep an eye on as new polling is released.
With no new polling today from Florida or Nevada, their magic numbers don't change. It would still require a tie in the next Florida poll to push the Sunshine state back into McCain territory. And only something four points or greater in favor of McCain would turn Nevada pink. There was a new poll in Ohio today, but that tie did nothing to change the Buckeye state's magic number. It would still take one poll with a +11 point margin for McCain to swing the state.
Finally, I should say something about the Zogby Interactive numbers out today. FHQ dropped the internet-based polls from our averages recently, but I still like to look at the margins. Everything is basically in line with recent numbers out of those states, but Missouri seems a bit too pro-Obama and Ohio just slightly more pro-McCain than other polls from those states. However, the issues inherent in the methodology preclude us from using that data to determine our averages.
NOTE: Keep in mind that with the lines between categories being dropped for tomorrow's update, there is likely to be a significant shake up on the Watch List. As the lines move, so too do the states within a fraction of a point of those thresholds. I'll have more on that tomorrow.
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/16/08)
Live Blog and Open Thread: Final Presidential Debate
Breaking: Florida to Turn Blue
| New Polls (Oct. 16) | |||
| State | Poll | Margin | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Connecticut | Rasmussen | +17 | |
| New York | Rasmussen | +20 | |
| Ohio | Rasmussen | 0 | |
| Oregon | Rasmussen | +13 | |
| Pennsylvania | Muhlenberg College | +16 | |
| Virginia | Chris. Newport Univ. | +6 | |
The tie in Rasmussen's survey of the Buckeye state is interesting in that it breaks from what we have seen out of Ohio recently. But in the context of the other Rasmussen polls of late, it isn't a stretch. Even in the post-Lehman environment, Obama never got higher than the two point margin earlier in the week in the Rasmussen/FOX battleground poll. Everything else from Rasmussen in Ohio has shown a race oscillating within the McCain +1 to Obama +2 range; basically a tie. Taken alone, then, this poll makes it look like Ohio is tightening some. It isn't because it was already tight. It has been this whole time. Obama just has the slight advantage now. And as I explained in yesterday's post, it is likely to stay there.
In Virgina, polls continue to provide Obama with margins outside of the margin of error. As such, the Old Dominion is slowly creeping out of the zone of competitiveness. Tomorrow's update will lower the lean/toss up line to three points to reflect the difficulty both candidates will have in making up more than three points over the final 18 days of the race. I don't want to stretch beyond the parameters of the Watch List, but Virginia would be under 1.5 points from moving into the Obama lean category with the line at three points. But that 1.5 points will be tough to break with such a short period of time until the election. Like Ohio, Virginia is close -- not as close -- but is currently favoring the junior senator from Illinois. It should also be noted that the Christopher Newport University poll has shifted 15 points since last month. Prior to the mess on Wall Street, CNU had the race in Virginia at McCain +9. That's a pretty big turnaround in just one one's time.
[Click Map to Enlarge]With just two polls in states of consequence (Sorry, Connecticut, New York and Pennsylvania. This is the hand the electoral college has dealt you in October of 2008.), there just wasn't that much of an opportunity for any further redistribution of electoral college votes. Virginia isn't even on the Watch List and wasn't expected to shift necessarily. What that does mean is that the tally remains 338-200 in favor of Obama. If FHQ's graduated weighted averages of the states reflect how each state would vote, then Obama would emerge victorious from the electoral college.
| The Electoral College Spectrum* | ||||
| HI-4 (7)** | ME-4 (157) | NH-4 (264/278) | ND-3 (158) | LA-9 (67) |
| VT-3 (10) | WA-11 (168) | CO-9*** (273/274) | MT-3 (155) | KY-8 (58) |
| RI-4 (14) | OR-7 (175) | VA-13 (286/265) | GA-15 (152) | KS-6 (50) |
| MA-12 (26) | IA-7 (182) | NV-5 (291/252) | MS-6 (137) | TN-11 (44) |
| MD-10 (36) | NJ-15 (197) | OH-20 (311/247) | AR-6 (131) | NE-5 (33) |
| NY-31 (67) | MN-10 (207) | FL-27 (338/227) | AK-3 (125) | AL-9 (28) |
| DE-3 (70) | WI-10 (217) | MO-11 (349/200) | TX-34 (122) | WY-3 (19) |
| CT-7 (77) | PA-21 (238) | NC-15 (364/189) | SC-8 (88) | ID-4 (16) |
| IL-21 (98) | NM-5 (243) | WV-5 (369/174) | AZ-10 (80) | OK-7 (12) |
| CA-55 (153) | MI-17 (260) | IN-11 (380/169) | SD-3 (70) | UT-5 (5) |
| *Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Obama's toss up states), he would have 274 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***Colorado is the state where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. It is currently favoring Obama, thus the blue text in that cell. | ||||
The map stays the same and the Electoral College Spectrum only saw minor alterations. The race is still a battle in the states from Colorado on down to Indiana in that center column. It is within those states that this campaign is currently being waged. And as we discussed yesterday, the momentum is seemingly behind Obama in all those states save Indiana. And that may be more a function of a lack of polling in the Hoosier state over the last week or so than anything else. Even so, Indiana is closer to switching to a McCain lean than to an Obama toss up as we can see on the Watch List below. The list is unchanged since yesterday and that means that Florida, Nevada and Ohio are still the the states to keep an eye on as new polling is released.
With no new polling today from Florida or Nevada, their magic numbers don't change. It would still require a tie in the next Florida poll to push the Sunshine state back into McCain territory. And only something four points or greater in favor of McCain would turn Nevada pink. There was a new poll in Ohio today, but that tie did nothing to change the Buckeye state's magic number. It would still take one poll with a +11 point margin for McCain to swing the state.
| The Watch List* | |||
| State | Switch | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Florida | from Toss Up Obama | to Toss Up McCain | |
| Indiana | from Toss Up McCain | to McCain lean | |
| Iowa | from Strong Obama | to Obama lean | |
| Michigan | from Obama lean | to Toss Up Obama | |
| Nevada | from Toss Up Obama | to Toss Up McCain | |
| New Hampshire | from Obama lean | to Toss Up Obama | |
| New Jersey | from Strong Obama | to Obama lean | |
| Ohio | from Toss Up Obama | to Toss Up McCain | |
| Oregon | from Strong Obama | to Obama lean | |
| *Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. | |||
Finally, I should say something about the Zogby Interactive numbers out today. FHQ dropped the internet-based polls from our averages recently, but I still like to look at the margins. Everything is basically in line with recent numbers out of those states, but Missouri seems a bit too pro-Obama and Ohio just slightly more pro-McCain than other polls from those states. However, the issues inherent in the methodology preclude us from using that data to determine our averages.
NOTE: Keep in mind that with the lines between categories being dropped for tomorrow's update, there is likely to be a significant shake up on the Watch List. As the lines move, so too do the states within a fraction of a point of those thresholds. I'll have more on that tomorrow.
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/16/08)
Live Blog and Open Thread: Final Presidential Debate
Breaking: Florida to Turn Blue
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
The Electoral College Map (10/16/08)
On the day of the final presidential debate of 2008 there were another 16 new polls released in 12 states. And none were bigger than the three polls out of Florida. No, there's nothing out of the ordinary in those three polls given what we've seen since the economic crisis began. However, there was enough support for Barack Obama across the three to shift the Sunshine state into the blue. Now, several other sites have had Florida going for Obama for a week or more, but I've argued that when and if the state shifted here at FHQ, it would mean something. In states like Florida, where there has been a lot of polling all year, there is a tendency for our weighted averages to react slowly. For Florida, the early part of the year and even into the summer saw the establishment of a pretty clear McCain lead there. And even when the past polls were discounted, the Arizona senator still held on to a lead; a diminished one, but a lead nonetheless. In other words, when shifts occur here at FHQ -- especially in frequently polled states -- they are usually lasting changes. The worst of it, then, for the McCain campaign is that when trackers with conservative methodologies start showing vital states to the Arizona senator's electoral fortunes turning blue. [I feel the need to stress once again that the "conservative" in that last sentence refers to the statistics behind our weighted averages. It is not an ideological issue. The average is set up to react but not react too easily to new information. The attempt here is always to be as impartial as possible.]
On the heels of a fiery debate performance that, at first glance didn't go over too well, this Florida situation is not a positive development for the McCain campaign. They don't need some two-bit electoral college analysis to tell them that, though. The GOP standard bearer's campaign has likely known this for a while. After pulling out of Michigan altogether a couple of weeks ago and now having the RNC pull its ads in Wisconsin to focus on "red states," there just isn't any doubt that those resources are being shifted to states like Florida, North Carolina and Virginia. All three were Bush states just four years ago.
While the Sunshine state was the only mover of the day, that didn't mean that the rest of the polling wasn't enlightening. Again, the list is overwhelmingly blue, with the exception of a healthy, but below normal margin in Kansas and a trio of "too close" surveys from Georgia, Missouri and West Virginia.
But let's not doom and gloom it too much. There's only so much negativity this campaign can take, right? Let's shift our focus to some of those blue polls and how Obama is doing. Other than Florida, the Illinois senator is also in good shape in Massachusetts, where some surprisingly low numbers earlier in the year have given way to the typically pro-Democratic tilt of the Bay state. And among the closest states polled today, Colorado, Nevada and Virginia, in addition to Florida, continue to show Obama ahead. The same is true in North Carolina as well. But the Tar Heel state is one of the few remaining McCain toss ups that has not crossed the partisan line to join Obama's coalition of states. Polling has been scant in Indiana, but the other three toss ups on McCain's side of the partisan line have all shown Obama ahead in the last week. But in a wave election, all four states are likely on the table as potential changes over the remaining 19 days of the race.
[Click Map to Enlarge]
The fact that there are just four McCain toss up states left is indicative of the current state of the race. Not only is McCain now behind in every category comparison (strong to strong, lean to lean and toss up to toss up), but he has been pushed to the brink in the electoral college tally as well, teetering on the threshold between the 200s and 100s. I don't want to overstate matters too much, but if the battle over the next two and a half weeks is in North Carolina and Missouri, then the race is over. McCain's only hope is to somehow swing Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania and even then he would come up two electoral votes shy of what is needed. Sweeping those three is a tall order in any election, but having to do it when Pennsylvania is moving rapidly into the darker blue, is nigh impossible.
But that's what the McCain campaign is facing currently. And with the thresholds between categories being dropped over the weekend, the perception is only going to get worse. The Obama lean blue has already stretched into the middle column of the Electoral College Spectrum and the light blue is gradually inching downward into formerly McCain states as well. I haven't decided on where I'll shift the strong/lean line yet (wherever a natural break occurs), but the lean/toss up line will be dropped to a 3% margin. In other words, our estimation of what is an attainable amount of ground to be made up in two and a half weeks time is three points. Any state outside of that margin is going to be difficult to swing without an outside factor intervening. [Then again, changing the overall dynamic of the race depends on that also.] Colorado would turn darker blue and Indiana and West Virginia darker red. That leaves the states between Virginia and North Carolina within that range. Those six states account for 91 electoral votes and McCain would have to sweep them all plus another state to break 270. And that's another scenario that is difficult to envision in the current environment.
Though there is still some jockeying for position going on, the Watch List is essentially down to just three states now, Florida, Nevada and Ohio. Yes, you could throw Indiana in there as well, but I'll focus on just those states most likely to shift sides of the partisan line for the time being. The rest of the list is comprised of states that just are not likely at this point to switch sides. But Florida, Nevada and Ohio are. All three are within a fraction of a point in our averages of moving back toward McCain.
But what would it take to do that? What is each state's magic polling number do get that done. In Florida, there is enough McCain support in those past polls that a tie in the next poll would bring the Sunshine state back into the pink. But there has not been a tie or a pro-McCain result in Florida since the end of September. In Nevada, it would take a survey showing the Arizona senator ahead by four points to shift the Silver state toward McCain. There hasn't been a poll showing anything greater than McCain +3 since August though. Finally in Ohio, the news is a bit more grim. Again, when we have a lot of data on one state, it becomes much more difficult to shift. That is certainly the case in Ohio. It took a while for the Buckeye state to turn blue here when it had shifted on other sites, but the move here is indicative of a lasting shift. At this point, it would take one poll showing McCain ahead by 11 points to shift Ohio back to him. There just haven't been those types of margins in Ohio. The more likely route to a change is a series of polls showing McCain ahead in Ohio, but time is running out on that possibility.
Time is running out on this race, period, at this point. 19 days to go.
Recent Posts:
Live Blog and Open Thread: Final Presidential Debate
Breaking: Florida to Turn Blue
The Electoral College Map (10/15/08)
| New Polls (Oct. 15) | |||
| State | Poll | Margin | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado | CNN | +7 | |
| Florida | Datamar | +5 | |
| Florida | Insider Advantage | +4 | |
| Florida | CNN | +3 | |
| Georgia | CNN | +6 | |
| Illinois | Rasmussen | +17 | |
| Kansas | Rasmussen | +13 | |
| Massachusetts | Survey USA | +24 | |
| Massachusetts | Rasmussen | +28 | |
| Missouri | CNN | +1 | |
| Nevada | Insider Advantage | +3 | |
| New Mexico | Survey USA | +7 | |
| New Mexico | Rasmussen | +13 | |
| North Carolina | Insider Advantage | +2 | |
| Virginia | CNN | +9 | |
| West Virginia | Insider Advantage | +2 | |
On the heels of a fiery debate performance that, at first glance didn't go over too well, this Florida situation is not a positive development for the McCain campaign. They don't need some two-bit electoral college analysis to tell them that, though. The GOP standard bearer's campaign has likely known this for a while. After pulling out of Michigan altogether a couple of weeks ago and now having the RNC pull its ads in Wisconsin to focus on "red states," there just isn't any doubt that those resources are being shifted to states like Florida, North Carolina and Virginia. All three were Bush states just four years ago.
| Changes (Oct. 15) | |||
| State | Before | After | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Florida | Toss Up McCain | Toss Up Obama | |
While the Sunshine state was the only mover of the day, that didn't mean that the rest of the polling wasn't enlightening. Again, the list is overwhelmingly blue, with the exception of a healthy, but below normal margin in Kansas and a trio of "too close" surveys from Georgia, Missouri and West Virginia.
But let's not doom and gloom it too much. There's only so much negativity this campaign can take, right? Let's shift our focus to some of those blue polls and how Obama is doing. Other than Florida, the Illinois senator is also in good shape in Massachusetts, where some surprisingly low numbers earlier in the year have given way to the typically pro-Democratic tilt of the Bay state. And among the closest states polled today, Colorado, Nevada and Virginia, in addition to Florida, continue to show Obama ahead. The same is true in North Carolina as well. But the Tar Heel state is one of the few remaining McCain toss ups that has not crossed the partisan line to join Obama's coalition of states. Polling has been scant in Indiana, but the other three toss ups on McCain's side of the partisan line have all shown Obama ahead in the last week. But in a wave election, all four states are likely on the table as potential changes over the remaining 19 days of the race.
[Click Map to Enlarge]The fact that there are just four McCain toss up states left is indicative of the current state of the race. Not only is McCain now behind in every category comparison (strong to strong, lean to lean and toss up to toss up), but he has been pushed to the brink in the electoral college tally as well, teetering on the threshold between the 200s and 100s. I don't want to overstate matters too much, but if the battle over the next two and a half weeks is in North Carolina and Missouri, then the race is over. McCain's only hope is to somehow swing Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania and even then he would come up two electoral votes shy of what is needed. Sweeping those three is a tall order in any election, but having to do it when Pennsylvania is moving rapidly into the darker blue, is nigh impossible.
| The Electoral College Spectrum* | ||||
| HI-4 (7)** | ME-4 (157) | NH-4 (264/278) | ND-3 (158) | LA-9 (67) |
| VT-3 (10) | WA-11 (168) | CO-9*** (273/274) | MT-3 (155) | KY-8 (58) |
| RI-4 (14) | OR-7 (175) | VA-13 (286/265) | GA-15 (152) | KS-6 (50) |
| NY-31 (45) | IA-7 (182) | OH-20 (306/252) | MS-6 (137) | TN-11 (44) |
| MA-12 (57) | NJ-15 (197) | NV-5 (311/232) | AR-6 (131) | NE-5 (33) |
| MD-10 (67) | MN-10 (207) | FL-27 (338/227) | AK-3 (125) | AL-9 (28) |
| DE-3 (70) | WI-10 (217) | MO-11 (349/200) | TX-34 (122) | WY-3 (19) |
| IL-21 (91) | NM-5 (222) | NC-15 (364/189) | SC-8 (88) | ID-4 (16) |
| CT-7 (98) | PA-21 (243) | WV-5 (369/174) | AZ-10 (80) | OK-7 (12) |
| CA-55 (153) | MI-17 (260) | IN-11 (380/169) | SD-3 (70) | UT-5 (5) |
| *Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Obama's toss up states), he would have 274 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***Colorado is the state where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. It is currently favoring Obama, thus the blue text in that cell. | ||||
But that's what the McCain campaign is facing currently. And with the thresholds between categories being dropped over the weekend, the perception is only going to get worse. The Obama lean blue has already stretched into the middle column of the Electoral College Spectrum and the light blue is gradually inching downward into formerly McCain states as well. I haven't decided on where I'll shift the strong/lean line yet (wherever a natural break occurs), but the lean/toss up line will be dropped to a 3% margin. In other words, our estimation of what is an attainable amount of ground to be made up in two and a half weeks time is three points. Any state outside of that margin is going to be difficult to swing without an outside factor intervening. [Then again, changing the overall dynamic of the race depends on that also.] Colorado would turn darker blue and Indiana and West Virginia darker red. That leaves the states between Virginia and North Carolina within that range. Those six states account for 91 electoral votes and McCain would have to sweep them all plus another state to break 270. And that's another scenario that is difficult to envision in the current environment.
| The Watch List* | |||
| State | Switch | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Florida | from Toss Up Obama | to Toss Up McCain | |
| Indiana | from Toss Up McCain | to McCain lean | |
| Iowa | from Strong Obama | to Obama lean | |
| Michigan | from Obama lean | to Toss Up Obama | |
| Nevada | from Toss Up Obama | to Toss Up McCain | |
| New Hampshire | from Obama lean | to Toss Up Obama | |
| New Jersey | from Strong Obama | to Obama lean | |
| Ohio | from Toss Up Obama | to Toss Up McCain | |
| Oregon | from Strong Obama | to Obama lean | |
| *Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. | |||
Though there is still some jockeying for position going on, the Watch List is essentially down to just three states now, Florida, Nevada and Ohio. Yes, you could throw Indiana in there as well, but I'll focus on just those states most likely to shift sides of the partisan line for the time being. The rest of the list is comprised of states that just are not likely at this point to switch sides. But Florida, Nevada and Ohio are. All three are within a fraction of a point in our averages of moving back toward McCain.
But what would it take to do that? What is each state's magic polling number do get that done. In Florida, there is enough McCain support in those past polls that a tie in the next poll would bring the Sunshine state back into the pink. But there has not been a tie or a pro-McCain result in Florida since the end of September. In Nevada, it would take a survey showing the Arizona senator ahead by four points to shift the Silver state toward McCain. There hasn't been a poll showing anything greater than McCain +3 since August though. Finally in Ohio, the news is a bit more grim. Again, when we have a lot of data on one state, it becomes much more difficult to shift. That is certainly the case in Ohio. It took a while for the Buckeye state to turn blue here when it had shifted on other sites, but the move here is indicative of a lasting shift. At this point, it would take one poll showing McCain ahead by 11 points to shift Ohio back to him. There just haven't been those types of margins in Ohio. The more likely route to a change is a series of polls showing McCain ahead in Ohio, but time is running out on that possibility.
Time is running out on this race, period, at this point. 19 days to go.
Recent Posts:
Live Blog and Open Thread: Final Presidential Debate
Breaking: Florida to Turn Blue
The Electoral College Map (10/15/08)
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