11:53pm: Well, I wanted to thank everyone for stopping by to read and comment tonight. Your participation is what makes FHQ fun. Thanks again.
Josh
10:33pm: Maybe Brian Williams misplaced that "boisterous" that he used to describe town hall debates following last week's rather tame affair between the two candidates. But I think it certainly applies to this one. Contrary to what we have typically seen from these sit-down debates, this one had some fireworks. What do you think, Joe the Plumber? Well, Joe has slipped into his Joe Sixpack cape and is off to fight for average Americans. The constant Joe refrain throughout was an interesting exchange. But the question of the hour: Who won? Honestly, I'm torn. The McCain offensive, to me, was a turn off early on, but after I got used to it, I took it all in stride. I spoke early on about whether McCain would receive a get out of jail free card on the going negative simply because it was perceived that he had to. But the answer to that question will have a large say in who actually won this one. If the attacks were normalized for everyone else, as they were in my case, then McCain may get the nod. If that's the case, though, does it change anything. Obama is seen as having the upper hand on domestic issues. Is it a blow to him if McCain was able to top him in friendly territory? And if it is, how much of a blow is it? I'm asking a lot of questions here, but this debate left many unanswered. I'll turn it over to the comments section for now. I may hang around and comment for a while, but I'd like to get the new electoral college map post out tonight. With Florida turning blue, it should offer some interesting analysis. Oh, now I'm trying to sell and hype myself simultaneously. This never ends well.
10:31pm: That is all. Well, "Good job, good job, good job, we did it" forcefully from McCain closes it. Let's see how long the McCain's hang around after this one. Of course it isn't the same as after a town hall debate.
10:29pm: Obama seems to be attempting to channel his inner-Bill Clinton in his closing remarks. It's the economy, stupid. McCain looks like he wants to offer a rebuttal to Obama on this.
10:28pm: McCain plays up the trust angle in his statements.
10:26pm: McCain ends the pre-closing statement portion on a snarky note. "There aren't enough vouchers," so we scrap the whole thing. "Got it."
10:26pm: Obama: "Senator McCain is absolutely right" returns in full force.
10:24pm: I'm guessing Obama lets the long since past McCain comments on abolishing the Department of Education pass. Perhaps that argument is being made in the Bizarro debate. That one is on C-SPAN2.
10:22pm: Obama agrees with McCain on charter schools and increased competition for public schools. But disagrees with McCain's stance on college accessibility and affordability. My student loans are listening.
10:20pm: More federal government involvement in education?
10:18pm: McCain: "It's the civil rights issue of the 21st century."
10:17pm: Question: Is declining education a national security issue?
10:16pm: Out of the troubled waters of abortion and on to education.
10:14pm: McCain is chomping at the bit to respond here at the same time Obama is trying to find common ground on this issue.
10:12pm: McCain rolls his eyes in response to Obama denying that he voted to deny care to these infants of failed abortions. Obama says there was another law on the books already dealing with that.
10:11pm: Ah, and now McCain brings up the present votes and one was on an abortion-related bill before the Illinois senate when Obama was there.
10:09pm: Obama thinks Roe v. Wade was correctly decided. Then he leans on the classic Democratic argument on the issue: choice.
10:07pm: When did Obama vote against Justice Breyer? Maybe it was a "present" vote, but I doubt it.
10:06pm: Alright, Roe v. Wade. Here we go. Supreme Court nominations. Litmus tests? McCain says no.
I apologize for skipping over the substance of that health care discussion, but there was a lot of good stuff in that exchange.
10:05pm: Awesome Freudian slip there from McCain. "Senator Government, uh, Senator Obama." High comedy.
10:04pm: Gold-plated Cadillac?
10:04pm: Welcome to the Joe Debate! Can we get this guy on stage, please?
10:01pm: I sincerely hope that Joe the Plumber is the same person as Joe Sixpack. I'll be disappointed if they aren't one in the same. But which one is the superhero name and which one is the mild-mannered reporter name. Well, I just answered that one. It would be mild-mannered plumber in this case.
10:00pm: Obama: "Here's your fine, Joe [the plumber]. Zero." McCain: "Zero?"
9:59pm: $5000 tax credit from McCain. Buy into the same coverage we get from Obama. Ah, McCain revisits the fines. Well, you knew that was coming.
9:58pm: McCain is smiling with a response to Obama seemingly at the ready. This has been more entertaining than the other debates, I'll say that.
9:56pm: On to health care.
9:55pm: "I just recited to you the benefits of that agreement." Was McCain talking to Obama or Schieffer on that one?
9:51pm: McCain goes after Obama on semantics. "He will look at -- did you get that -- look at off-shore drilling." And then he returns to free trade, stressing the Columbia agreement and Obama's not having been south of the border. Obama leans on the specifics and his understanding of the situation in response.
9:50pm: McCain has his pen out and ready for Obama's response to his line on unilaterally renegotiating NAFTA. Obama calls for a reexamination of these trade agreements.
9:48pm: How much in four years? Obama says those "bad" sources can be eliminated in ten years time.
9:47pm: New Question: Climate change and oil importation decreases. How much can you lower that level during your time in office. Canadian oil is fine, but Middle Eastern and Venezuelan oil is not according to McCain.
9:46pm: McCain is all in. Angry or not, here I come. He honestly has nothing to lose here.
9:44pm: Is Palin qualified to be president? Obama: I'll leave it up to the American people. Translation: I'm not touching that one with a ten foot pole.
9:43pm: Sorry, I got interrupted during the Biden explanation. I'll watched that back later.
9:39pm: Moving on...
...finally.
Question: People involved in either administration. Starting with the running mates.
9:36pm: ACORN has been a topic here recently. Obama flat-out denies any link between his campaign and the organization.
9:35pm: Obama is trying to work back to the issues. I don't know that this segment has helped either candidate. See, negative campaigning hurts both candidates. Oh, and McCain brings up both Bill Ayers and ACORN.
9:34pm: Yeah, this is silly now. Move on Schieffer.
9:31pm: Wow! We are definitely in the internet age. The "kill him" comments have come to the debates. I like this line of questioning, but I don't know that it necessarily have a place in a high-profile debate. I don't know. Maybe that's just a preference.
9:30pm: Are comparisons in ads the same as negative ads? That one from McCain is on thin ice.
9:28pm: "100% of your ads are negative, John." Obama does seem to take the high road here. He can afford to as the candidate in the lead. He also brushes off the town hall argument before moving on to the "turn the page" comments from the McCain campaign.
9:26pm: And here are the John Lewis comments. McCain was hurt by them and by Obama's lack of a repudiation. And on to the pledge to not opt out of public financing.
9:25pm: Ooh, negative campaigning question. McCain seems to think town halls would have cured it all. I don't think I follow. Seems pretty clear cut to me. The one behind in the polls has to go on the attack.
9:24pm: "I've opposed the Bush administration. I have the scars to prove it." And he calls out Obama on his statements about standing up to the leaders of his party.
9:20pm: Balance the budget? "Senator Obama, I am not president Bush. If you wanted to take him on you should have run four years ago." Indeed. Pursed lips from Obama. He recognizes the offensive from McCain but really doesn't seem to like it.
9:18pm: McCain is definitely on the offensive. Ooh, and there's the projector again. Jon Stewart just last night talked about Republicans not supporting McCain because he recycles (speeches). He's recycling the projector now. Oh, he's not alone.
9:17pm: Schieffer is after them on this one. Well, someone should answer these spending questions. Ah, there's the hatchet.
...from McCain? "Some people will call that a hatchet, then I'll get out the scalpel."
9:16pm: Profligate ways? Well, that went over Joe Sixpack's head.
9:15pm: Obama's up first. Pay-go elicits a smile from McCain. Are we going to work our way back to the scalpel/hatchet line? Third time's the charm they say.
9:14pm: New Question: Deficit adding. This will be good.
9:12pm: Is it me or is McCain playing with fire by continually jumping in on Obama? Or does he get the benefit of the doubt because he has to be on the offensive?
9:11pm: Redistributing the wealth. Is the class warfare argument going to work in this current environment? The McCain campaign has been going that route recently. The media won't let you hear because they're too focused on Bill Ayers. Obama is shaking his head at this. He seems moderately exasperated.
9:08pm: Is Joe the Plumber the real Joe Sixpack?
9:07pm: Schieffer: "Would you like to ask him a question?"
McCain: "Uh no."
Anecdote time.
9:06pm: Split screens are making it really difficult to follow. McCain is blinking like the next one will be his last. Very distracting. Maybe this is his way of attacking Obama.
9:04pm: I stand corrected...again. Split screens on C-SPAN. They listened to my request. This message brought to you by C-SPAN.
9:03pm: Wow! Who would have though? The economy leads us off.
9:00pm: We're about to get underway here.
7:46pm: Live from the Hofstra University annex in Athens, GA -- talk about distance learning -- it's the FHQ live blog of the third and final presidential debate of 2008. Three weeks from tonight the campaign will have been over for nearly a day -- assuming everything is on the up and up as far as recounts and the like are concerned -- and that means that after this evening we will have dipped into the teens for the numbers of days left. [I'm already nostalgic. Can we hit reset and do it all over again? I see a hand raised in the McCain section. Do I have a second? Seeing none, other than everyone here associated with the McCain campaign raising both hands, we'll move on.]
What can we expect tonight in New York? Well, dare I say McCain needs a game-changing performance? Nah. In fact, I pledge to avoid that word in all its derivatives this evening. To say that the Arizona senator has to alter the dynamic of the race at this point would be to utter one of the contenders for understatement of the year. For the second debate in a row, though, McCain is up against it because of the format. Tonight's debate is a sit down affair (It is this time, I swear.), and that makes McCain's efforts to go on the attack more difficult simply because of the conversational tone these types of debates take on.
We are a little more than an hour away, so let's sit back and prepare for our last go-round on the debate ride for 2008. I'll be back shortly. And once again, I'll be following the festivities on C-SPAN. I doubt they'll have split screen coverage during a sit down debate, but I'll start there in the hopes that they will.
Recent Posts:
Breaking: Florida to Turn Blue
The Electoral College Map (10/15/08)
How Big a Margin is Too Big to Make Up?
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
Breaking: Florida to Turn Blue
I'm not one to steal my own thunder, but...
As I sit here awaiting Pollster's addition of the third party-included numbers from the latest series of CNN polls, it looks like Florida will shift into Obama territory in tonight's update of FHQ's electoral college analysis. Assuming Nevada holds pat (and today's Insider Advantage poll of the Silver state isn't hurting), Obama's tally will rise to 338 electoral votes.
The move in the Sunshine state comes on the strength of three new polls out today.
Datamar: Obama +5
Insider Advantage: Obama +4
CNN: Obama +5 (two-party breakdown)
Obama +3 (with third parties included)
UPDATE: Ever reliable FiveThirtyEight.com was able to provide the numbers with the third party candidates included. That three point margin was just (and I mean just) enough to push the Sunshine state into the blue.
I'll be back tonight with more on this and an open thread/live blog for the debate. Until then, the comment section is open. If you haven't already please visit the electoral college post from Monday and weigh in on Scott's question about the turning points in this year's campaign.
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/15/08)
How Big a Margin is Too Big to Make Up?
The Electoral College Map (10/14/08)
As I sit here awaiting Pollster's addition of the third party-included numbers from the latest series of CNN polls, it looks like Florida will shift into Obama territory in tonight's update of FHQ's electoral college analysis. Assuming Nevada holds pat (and today's Insider Advantage poll of the Silver state isn't hurting), Obama's tally will rise to 338 electoral votes.
The move in the Sunshine state comes on the strength of three new polls out today.
Datamar: Obama +5
Insider Advantage: Obama +4
CNN: Obama +5 (two-party breakdown)
Obama +3 (with third parties included)
UPDATE: Ever reliable FiveThirtyEight.com was able to provide the numbers with the third party candidates included. That three point margin was just (and I mean just) enough to push the Sunshine state into the blue.
I'll be back tonight with more on this and an open thread/live blog for the debate. Until then, the comment section is open. If you haven't already please visit the electoral college post from Monday and weigh in on Scott's question about the turning points in this year's campaign.
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/15/08)
How Big a Margin is Too Big to Make Up?
The Electoral College Map (10/14/08)
Tuesday, October 14, 2008
The Electoral College Map (10/15/08)
With 16 new polls out in 11 states, there's plenty of opportunity to shake FHQ's averages up. Sadly for the McCain campaign, a group of states once deemed battleground states by Quinnipiac, just doesn't look that way anymore. Like the university's polling outfit did recently with surveys in Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio, Quinnipiac split their sample into groups of before debate respondents and after debate respondents. This was set up to gauge the effects of the second presidential debate last week and the comparisons offered some mixed results. On the one hand Obama held at worst an 8 point advantage in any one of the polls in Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota or Wisconsin. That much was clear. But the attempt to determine a debate effect fell flat, only turning in a difference outside of the margin of error in the case of Wisconsin. That Badger state jumped nine points from the pre- to post-debate sample. Across the other three states, Obama's performance did not seem to really help or hurt him.
If the clear message from that series of polls from Quinnipiac was the fact that Obama was comfortably ahead in those four states, that message was echoed throughout the rest of Tuesday's polling. Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio -- all Bush states just four years ago -- continue to move in Obama's direction. The Illinois senator has pulled ahead in Ohio and Missouri and North Carolina are 1.5 and 2.7 points on McCain's side of the partisan line. The latter two continue to close with each new poll.*
The only red state poll of the day was in South Carolina, where McCain remains safely ahead despite what is going on in neighboring states, Georgia and North Carolina. The Palmetto state has quickly reverted to form for the general election. Early on, following a competitive Democratic primary in the state, it looked as if South Carolina may be closer than usual, if still comfortably Republican. Now, South Carolina just looks safe for the Arizona senator.
[Click Map to Enlarge]
All that blue, but no change to the map. All 50 states held firm in their current categories, leaving Obama up by the same 311-227 margin he was up a day ago in the electoral college tally. Again, the shift since the economic breakdown just a few short weeks ago has been stark. The playing field on which this race is being contested has shifted to the right on the Electoral College Spectrum below. Instead of McCain marching into the states in the second column, as it looked like was possible in the aftermath of the Republican convention, has once again shifted to the middle column and is gradually working its way to the bottom.
Next on the list is Florida, which is the most vulnerable state at the moment for McCain by our measure. Of course, the Sunshine state is not nearly as susceptible to Obama's efforts there as Nevada is to McCain. The Silver state is more likely to switch over based on a minimal lead for McCain in a new poll. However, the Florida for Nevada trade is probably not what the McCain campaign has in mind currently. While Obama has some wiggle room, McCain absolutely cannot win the election without winning two out of the three of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. If the Arizona senator and his team can crack that code though, they may as well go ahead and sweep all three just to be sure.
The Watch List waves goodbye to Washington today. The 16 point margin in the latest Survey USA survey of the state, has pushed the Evergreen state outside of the range that puts it at risk of changing from a strong Obama state to an Obama lean state. As mentioned above, Florida, Nevada and Ohio remain the states to watch when new polling is released.
*The gap in Missouri has closed more quickly than the North Carolina margin simply because we have a lot more information from the Tar Heel state. That makes it more resilient to new polling information than a state like Missouri which has had around 15 less polls conducted in it over the course of this campaign year.
Recent Posts:
How Big a Margin is Too Big to Make Up?
The Electoral College Map (10/14/08)
The Electoral College Map (10/13/08)
| New Polls (Oct. 14) | |||
| State | Poll | Margin | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado | Quinnipiac (pre-debate) | +9 | |
| Colorado | Quinnipiac (post-debate) | +9 | |
| Colorado | Suffolk | +4 | |
| Delaware | Rasmussen | +17 | |
| Michigan | Quinnipiac (pre-debate) | +18 | |
| Michigan | Quinnipiac (post-debate) | +16 | |
| Minnesota | Quinnipiac (pre-debate) | +8 | |
| Minnesota | Quinnipiac (post-debate) | +11 | |
| Missouri | Public Policy Polling | +2 | |
| North Carolina | Public Policy Polling | +3 | |
| Ohio | Survey USA | +5 | |
| Pennsylvania | Survey USA | +15 | |
| South Carolina | Survey USA | +14 | |
| Washington | Survey USA | +16 | |
| Wisconsin | Quinnipiac (pre-debate) | +8 | |
| Wisconsin | Quinnipiac (post-debate) | +17 | |
If the clear message from that series of polls from Quinnipiac was the fact that Obama was comfortably ahead in those four states, that message was echoed throughout the rest of Tuesday's polling. Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio -- all Bush states just four years ago -- continue to move in Obama's direction. The Illinois senator has pulled ahead in Ohio and Missouri and North Carolina are 1.5 and 2.7 points on McCain's side of the partisan line. The latter two continue to close with each new poll.*
The only red state poll of the day was in South Carolina, where McCain remains safely ahead despite what is going on in neighboring states, Georgia and North Carolina. The Palmetto state has quickly reverted to form for the general election. Early on, following a competitive Democratic primary in the state, it looked as if South Carolina may be closer than usual, if still comfortably Republican. Now, South Carolina just looks safe for the Arizona senator.
[Click Map to Enlarge]All that blue, but no change to the map. All 50 states held firm in their current categories, leaving Obama up by the same 311-227 margin he was up a day ago in the electoral college tally. Again, the shift since the economic breakdown just a few short weeks ago has been stark. The playing field on which this race is being contested has shifted to the right on the Electoral College Spectrum below. Instead of McCain marching into the states in the second column, as it looked like was possible in the aftermath of the Republican convention, has once again shifted to the middle column and is gradually working its way to the bottom.
| The Electoral College Spectrum* | ||||
| HI-4 (7)** | ME-4 (157) | NH-4 (264/278) | ND-3 (158) | LA-9 (67) |
| VT-3 (10) | WA-11 (168) | CO-9*** (273/274) | MT-3 (155) | KY-8 (58) |
| RI-4 (14) | OR-7 (175) | VA-13 (286/265) | GA-15 (152) | KS-6 (50) |
| NY-31 (45) | IA-7 (182) | OH-20 (306/252) | MS-6 (137) | TN-11 (44) |
| MD-10 (55) | NJ-15 (197) | NV-5 (311/232) | AR-6 (131) | NE-5 (33) |
| DE-3 (58) | MN-10 (207) | FL-27 (338/227) | AK-3 (125) | AL-9 (28) |
| IL-21 (79) | WI-10 (217) | WV-5 (343/200) | TX-34 (122) | WY-3 (19) |
| CT-7 (86) | PA-21 (238) | MO-11 (354/195) | SC-8 (88) | ID-4 (16) |
| MA-12 (98) | MI-17 (255) | NC-15 (369/184) | AZ-10 (80) | OK-7 (12) |
| CA-55 (153) | NM-5 (260) | IN-11 (380/169) | SD-3 (70) | UT-5 (5) |
| *Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including New Hampshire (all Obama's toss up states), he would have 278 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***Colorado is the state where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. It is currently favoring Obama, thus the blue text in that cell. | ||||
Next on the list is Florida, which is the most vulnerable state at the moment for McCain by our measure. Of course, the Sunshine state is not nearly as susceptible to Obama's efforts there as Nevada is to McCain. The Silver state is more likely to switch over based on a minimal lead for McCain in a new poll. However, the Florida for Nevada trade is probably not what the McCain campaign has in mind currently. While Obama has some wiggle room, McCain absolutely cannot win the election without winning two out of the three of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. If the Arizona senator and his team can crack that code though, they may as well go ahead and sweep all three just to be sure.
| The Watch List* | |||
| State | Switch | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Florida | from Toss Up McCain | to Toss Up Obama | |
| Indiana | from Toss Up McCain | to McCain lean | |
| Iowa | from Strong Obama | to Obama lean | |
| Michigan | from Obama lean | to Toss Up Obama | |
| Nevada | from Toss Up Obama | to Toss Up McCain | |
| New Hampshire | from Obama lean | to Toss Up Obama | |
| New Jersey | from Strong Obama | to Obama lean | |
| Ohio | from Toss Up Obama | to Toss Up McCain | |
| Oregon | from Strong Obama | to Obama lean | |
| *Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. | |||
The Watch List waves goodbye to Washington today. The 16 point margin in the latest Survey USA survey of the state, has pushed the Evergreen state outside of the range that puts it at risk of changing from a strong Obama state to an Obama lean state. As mentioned above, Florida, Nevada and Ohio remain the states to watch when new polling is released.
*The gap in Missouri has closed more quickly than the North Carolina margin simply because we have a lot more information from the Tar Heel state. That makes it more resilient to new polling information than a state like Missouri which has had around 15 less polls conducted in it over the course of this campaign year.
Recent Posts:
How Big a Margin is Too Big to Make Up?
The Electoral College Map (10/14/08)
The Electoral College Map (10/13/08)
How Big a Margin is Too Big to Make Up?
In yesterday's New York Times, John Harwood laid out the history of presidential comebacks from late polling deficits, but that isn't really what I'm after here. Reagan is the only candidate who mounted such a turnaround when he unseated Jimmy Carter in 1980. The question I'm asking, though, is one I've been thinking about for the better part of two weeks because of an anonymous comment I got. [Granted, I did the leg work for this a couple of weekends ago, but I'm just now getting to it. It may not be as pertinent now with Obama seemingly comfortably ahead, but I'll press on regardless. More information is better than less in my estimation.] Here's the idea:
First off, I looked at all the swings from 1984-2004. That'll give us a total of five transitions and enough variation in the types of elections to give us a decent idea of what is business as usual in terms of these swings. There are several combinations here but two main hypotheses emerge from the electoral shifts we have witnessed over the last five cycles:
1984-1988: Big GOP landslide to Moderate GOP landslide
1988-1992: Moderate GOP landslide to Moderate Democratic landslide
1992-1996: Moderate Democratic landslide to Moderate Democratic landslide
1996-2000: Moderate Democratic landslide to Narrow GOP win
2000-2004: Narrow GOP win to Narrow GOP win
There are several types of transitions across these five cycles and that should allow us something better than a passing glance at what we're after and a decent test of our hypotheses. To start, we have a hypothetical threshold in place, 8.3%. From 1984-2004, how many states not only shifted 8.3%, but also changed hands?
There's a lot to look at in this table, so let's try to take it in bits. Let's tackle our hypotheses first. First of all, swings are both bigger and more frequent in years where power changes hands. The only case where there was no change in the incumbent party in the White House and there were shifts was in 1988. George Bush's victory in 1988 had nowhere to go but toward the Democrats following Reagan's thorough trouncing of Mondale in 1984. While there wasn't a change in the party in the White House after the 1988 election, there was a change in who was in the White House. That may explain some of the change. During both Bill Clinton's and George W. Bush's successful reelection bids neither saw many states change more than 8.3% from their initial election, nor did either see a single state change sides.
Not surprisingly, both of those elections (1996 and 2004) saw the smallest average shifts across all 50 states -- less than 2.5% in each. In the three elections that saw a change in power, whether a partisan change or a change in the occupant of the Oval Office, each witnessed average shifts of over 10%. Now, 2008 isn't following a landslide victory, and as a result the incumbent party is much less likely to see such widespread, large shifts and still hold on to power. If, however, Obama wins the 2008 election, we would be likely to see more and bigger shifts, though perhaps not to the degree of the shift in the change election of 1992. We could see a shift similar to 2000, though. The way things look now, the trend could be the exact opposite between 2004-2008 than it was between 1996-2000. Instead of moving from a moderate landslide to a competitive election, the way things appear now, three weeks out, a move from a competitive election to a moderate landslide isn't that far-fetched.
In a change election -- one where there is a change in power -- a shift of 8.3% or more isn't that uncommon from one election to the next.
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/14/08)
The Electoral College Map (10/13/08)
A Follow-Up on ACORN
"Here are the margins that Bush won these states in 2004:I'll have to say, 8.3% does sound like a lot to make up in just four short years; especially in a reliably red state like Virginia. So at first glance, this sounds like an entirely reasonable hypothesis. But it is never good enough for me to simply take someone's word for it. The one question that arises from this is, 8.3% is a lot, but compared to what? What is the typical swing from one party to the other from election to election? Oh, I'm glad you asked. Let's have a look.
Ohio 2.1%
Nevada 2.6
Colorado 4.7
Florida 5.0
Virginia 8.2
It's hard for me to believe that Virginia would change 8.3% in one direction(to Obama) therefor don't be surprised if/when McCain starts polling better in Virginia."
First off, I looked at all the swings from 1984-2004. That'll give us a total of five transitions and enough variation in the types of elections to give us a decent idea of what is business as usual in terms of these swings. There are several combinations here but two main hypotheses emerge from the electoral shifts we have witnessed over the last five cycles:
H1: Swings from one party to the other are likely to be larger in elections where the party in the White House changes than in years where the incumbent party is reelected.Let's look at each of these five electoral transitions:
H2: Competition matters. A transition from a landslide to a more competitive race is likely to affect a bigger shift than one from a competitive election to another. The biggest shift, though would combine both of these hypotheses. A switch from a landslide to another landslide where there is also a change in power translates into the biggest shifts.
1984-1988: Big GOP landslide to Moderate GOP landslide
1988-1992: Moderate GOP landslide to Moderate Democratic landslide
1992-1996: Moderate Democratic landslide to Moderate Democratic landslide
1996-2000: Moderate Democratic landslide to Narrow GOP win
2000-2004: Narrow GOP win to Narrow GOP win
There are several types of transitions across these five cycles and that should allow us something better than a passing glance at what we're after and a decent test of our hypotheses. To start, we have a hypothetical threshold in place, 8.3%. From 1984-2004, how many states not only shifted 8.3%, but also changed hands?
| Electoral Transitions (1984-2004)* | |||
| Year | Toward the Dems | Toward the GOP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1984-1988 | AK AZ CA CO CT FL HI ID IL IA KS KY LA ME MA MI MO MT NE NV NH NM NY ND OK OR RI SD TX UT VT WA WV WI WY | ||
| Average Shift: 11.76% (toward the Democrats) Total Shifts >8.3%: 35 Number Changing Parties: 9 | |||
| 1988-1992 | AL AK AZ AR CA CO CT DE FL GA ID IL IN KY LA ME MD MA MI MS NY NC MO MT NV NH NJ NM NY NC OH PA SC TN TX UT VT VA WA WI WY | ||
| Average Shift: 12.92% (toward the Democrats) Total Shifts >8.3%: 39 Number Changing Parties: 22 | |||
| 1992-1996 | CT HI ME MA NH NJ NY RI | AK KS | |
| Average Shift: 2.28% (toward the Democrats) Total Shifts >8.3%: 10 Number Changing Parties: 0 | |||
| 1996-2000 | AK AZ AR GA ID IN IA KY LA ME MN MS MO MT NE NH ND OH OK SC SD TX UT VT WV WI WY | ||
| Average Shift: 10.22% (toward the GOP) Total Shifts >8.3%: 27 Number Changing Parties: 8 | |||
| 2000-2004 | VT | AL HI NJ OK RI TN | |
| Average Shift: 2.15% (toward the GOP) Total Shifts >8.3%: 7 Number Changing Parties: 0 | |||
| * The states in bold and italicized are states that had shifts from one party to the other greater than 8.3% and changed parties from one cycle to the next. Source: Dave Leip's Atlas of US Presidential Elections | |||
There's a lot to look at in this table, so let's try to take it in bits. Let's tackle our hypotheses first. First of all, swings are both bigger and more frequent in years where power changes hands. The only case where there was no change in the incumbent party in the White House and there were shifts was in 1988. George Bush's victory in 1988 had nowhere to go but toward the Democrats following Reagan's thorough trouncing of Mondale in 1984. While there wasn't a change in the party in the White House after the 1988 election, there was a change in who was in the White House. That may explain some of the change. During both Bill Clinton's and George W. Bush's successful reelection bids neither saw many states change more than 8.3% from their initial election, nor did either see a single state change sides.
Not surprisingly, both of those elections (1996 and 2004) saw the smallest average shifts across all 50 states -- less than 2.5% in each. In the three elections that saw a change in power, whether a partisan change or a change in the occupant of the Oval Office, each witnessed average shifts of over 10%. Now, 2008 isn't following a landslide victory, and as a result the incumbent party is much less likely to see such widespread, large shifts and still hold on to power. If, however, Obama wins the 2008 election, we would be likely to see more and bigger shifts, though perhaps not to the degree of the shift in the change election of 1992. We could see a shift similar to 2000, though. The way things look now, the trend could be the exact opposite between 2004-2008 than it was between 1996-2000. Instead of moving from a moderate landslide to a competitive election, the way things appear now, three weeks out, a move from a competitive election to a moderate landslide isn't that far-fetched.
In a change election -- one where there is a change in power -- a shift of 8.3% or more isn't that uncommon from one election to the next.
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/14/08)
The Electoral College Map (10/13/08)
A Follow-Up on ACORN
Monday, October 13, 2008
The Electoral College Map (10/14/08)
Monday brought a welcomed infusion of survey data from mostly battleground states. In all, 14 new polls from 12 states made even clearer our picture of the race for the White House. And as the table below can attest, it is an almost entirely blue picture. Of all the toss up states, Missouri and Indiana had been the most solidly McCain in the wake of the most recent Obama surge in state level polling. Indiana remains as solidly McCain as a toss up can be (In fact, if the line separating the toss up and lean categories were dropped to a 3 point margin, as it will be later in the week, Indiana would turn darker red by the slimmest of margins.), but Missouri has gone in the other direction since the middle part of last week. Of the four polls released from the Show-Me state in that time, three have show Obama ahead by anywhere from 1 to 8 points. The 8 point edge in the Survey USA poll out yesterday seems like an outlier given the totality of polling information from the state as well as in the context of these most recent polls. Outlier, though it may be, this poll is indicative of a larger trend toward Obama in Missouri. The mid- to lower single digit leads for McCain in the aftermath of the GOP convention have dissipated and been replaced with more Obama-friendly numbers since the Lehman collapse kicked off the economic crisis.
Other than Missouri, Ohio and North Carolina are noteworthy. On a gut level, both "feel" closer than they did just a week ago. North Carolina did seem to peak last week and has since turned in a run of margins well within the margin of error. However, any North Carolina number less than two for McCain or anything leaning in Obama's direction is narrowing the gap in the Tar Heel state. So, while things look a little closer in North Carolina, given the last few polls, the truth is that it is still closing. The same sort of thing is playing out in Ohio. The Buckeye state crested in the the Obama economic surge period, but has settled into an Obama +2-5 point range that is occasionally peppered with a positive McCain poll.
And what about that North Dakota poll? [Yeah, why did I wait so long to talk about that one?] The North Dakota poll from Forum led us into the week with a surprisingly positive Obama result. Unlike West Virginia last week, though, North Dakota is a bit more insulated by more polling data. In other words, it wasn't as vulnerable to a (potential) outlier as the Mountain state was. Yet, North Dakota did move into the McCain lean category, joining Montana as the only other lean state for the Arizona senator. North Dakota, then, is more competitive as a result -- at least according to our average -- but the number of days left are waning and the Peace Garden state is likely too far out of the Illinois senator's reach. If this poll is, in fact, indicative of what is happening in North Dakota, then Obama's North Dakota pull out, has not had the same effect on his numbers there, as McCain's in Michigan after the Arizona senator move resources out of the Wolverine state. Granted, one of those got a touch more press than the other.
Other than North Dakota, New Jersey and Oregon joined Iowa in shifting into the strong Obama category. What we are seeing is the continued movement across the map toward Obama. The darkest red states are impervious for the most part and we see that in the fact that there are so few lean states on the McCain side of the partisan line (see Electoral College Spectrum below). There continue to be two types of McCain states: solid McCain and toss up. In other words, there's a group of states that are safe for McCain, but outside of those states, the Arizona senator's potentially vulnerable. Those McCain toss ups have for the most part shift toward Obama, Obama toss ups have shifted toward Obama leans and Obama leans have shifted toward strong Obama states. But there remain three distinct tiers of states on the Obama side of the partisan line. If the line between strong states and lean states were dropped today to, say, 7 points, Minnesota would be the only state to move (into the strong Obama category). The polling movement during debate season, then, has gone as expected as the campaign draws ever closer to its conclusion. What I mean is that the categories of states are largely solidified now and there are natural breaks between them.
[Click Map to Enlarge]
Despite the moves, nothing has really been altered in terms of the distribution of electoral votes between the two candidates. Obama moves 22 electoral votes onto safer ground, but still holds 264 electoral votes between his lean and strong states. McCain on the other hand, maintains comfortable leads in states with 158 electoral votes. That would leave McCain in a position of having to sweep all the toss up states to clear the 270 electoral vote hurdle.
As Scott pointed out in the comments to yesterday's post, that seems unlikely. But to win without sweeping the toss ups, McCain would have to pick up Pennsylvania. The Arizona senator could cede Colorado and Virginia to Obama, swing Ohio and Pennsylvania and only get to 268, which is obviously short of the goal. But pulling Nevada in as well, would get McCain over the top. Is Pennsylvania an attainable target though? That's the question. Recent polling does not give him much of a shot. The type of North Carolina and Ohio movement discussed above is not present in Pennsylvania. Whereas the the Tar Heel and Buckeye states peaked and settled into a new equilibrium below that peak point, Pennsylvania has bounced and plateaued in the lower double digits for Obama.
The Keystone state isn't even on the Watch List. In fact, Pennsylvania is moving deeper into the Obama lean category with each new poll that is released. But the ten states above are on the list of states most likely to move in the event that new polling is released. And there is a lot of blue there. The lack of red of any shade again underlines that idea that the McCain side of things has solidified. The only thing left to settle is if those pink toss ups will shift toward Obama. Florida is the most likely at this point. To put the Florida situation in the terminology of a baseball pennant chase, the Sunshine state now has a magic number of 7. If a new poll were to give Obama a 7 point advantage, Florida would turn blue. That's down from 10 points before the Rasmussen poll was added in last night.
Just to be fair here, Nevada and Ohio are also close to changing sides. What are their respective magic numbers. McCain would need just a two point poll margin to shift Nevada to his side of the partisan line. Ohio, though, is a different story. We have much more data in the case of the Buckeye state, and thus a pretty good idea of how it is leaning. In other words, it, in all likelihood, takes more than just one poll to shift Ohio. If one poll were to do it, though, it would have to give McCain a 9 point edge. Given our discussion above -- about how Ohio had basically averaged one positive poll in the lower single digits for McCain recently -- that is very unlikely.
The story today is similar to what it was yesterday (and the day before and so on): McCain has to find a way to shift the race in his direction. The problem is that he is running out of time.
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/13/08)
A Follow-Up on ACORN
The Electoral College Map (10/12/08)
| New Polls (Oct. 13) | |||
| State | Poll | Margin | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Florida | Rasmussen/FOX | +5 | |
| Georgia | Survey USA | +8 | |
| Missouri | Rasmussen/FOX | +3 | |
| Missouri | Survey USA | +8 | |
| New Jersey | Survey USA | +15 | |
| New York | Survey USA | +33 | |
| North Carolina | Rasmussen/FOX | 0 | |
| North Dakota | Forum | +2 | |
| Ohio | Marist | +4 | |
| Ohio | Rasmussen/FOX | +2 | |
| Oklahoma | TvPoll | +31.1 | |
| Oregon | Survey USA | +17 | |
| Pennsylvania | Marist | +12 | |
| Virginia | Rasmussen/FOX | +3 | |
Other than Missouri, Ohio and North Carolina are noteworthy. On a gut level, both "feel" closer than they did just a week ago. North Carolina did seem to peak last week and has since turned in a run of margins well within the margin of error. However, any North Carolina number less than two for McCain or anything leaning in Obama's direction is narrowing the gap in the Tar Heel state. So, while things look a little closer in North Carolina, given the last few polls, the truth is that it is still closing. The same sort of thing is playing out in Ohio. The Buckeye state crested in the the Obama economic surge period, but has settled into an Obama +2-5 point range that is occasionally peppered with a positive McCain poll.
| Changes (Oct. 13) | |||
| State | Before | After | |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Jersey | Obama lean | Strong Obama | |
| North Dakota | Strong McCain | McCain lean | |
| Oregon | Obama lean | Strong Obama | |
And what about that North Dakota poll? [Yeah, why did I wait so long to talk about that one?] The North Dakota poll from Forum led us into the week with a surprisingly positive Obama result. Unlike West Virginia last week, though, North Dakota is a bit more insulated by more polling data. In other words, it wasn't as vulnerable to a (potential) outlier as the Mountain state was. Yet, North Dakota did move into the McCain lean category, joining Montana as the only other lean state for the Arizona senator. North Dakota, then, is more competitive as a result -- at least according to our average -- but the number of days left are waning and the Peace Garden state is likely too far out of the Illinois senator's reach. If this poll is, in fact, indicative of what is happening in North Dakota, then Obama's North Dakota pull out, has not had the same effect on his numbers there, as McCain's in Michigan after the Arizona senator move resources out of the Wolverine state. Granted, one of those got a touch more press than the other.
Other than North Dakota, New Jersey and Oregon joined Iowa in shifting into the strong Obama category. What we are seeing is the continued movement across the map toward Obama. The darkest red states are impervious for the most part and we see that in the fact that there are so few lean states on the McCain side of the partisan line (see Electoral College Spectrum below). There continue to be two types of McCain states: solid McCain and toss up. In other words, there's a group of states that are safe for McCain, but outside of those states, the Arizona senator's potentially vulnerable. Those McCain toss ups have for the most part shift toward Obama, Obama toss ups have shifted toward Obama leans and Obama leans have shifted toward strong Obama states. But there remain three distinct tiers of states on the Obama side of the partisan line. If the line between strong states and lean states were dropped today to, say, 7 points, Minnesota would be the only state to move (into the strong Obama category). The polling movement during debate season, then, has gone as expected as the campaign draws ever closer to its conclusion. What I mean is that the categories of states are largely solidified now and there are natural breaks between them.
[Click Map to Enlarge]Despite the moves, nothing has really been altered in terms of the distribution of electoral votes between the two candidates. Obama moves 22 electoral votes onto safer ground, but still holds 264 electoral votes between his lean and strong states. McCain on the other hand, maintains comfortable leads in states with 158 electoral votes. That would leave McCain in a position of having to sweep all the toss up states to clear the 270 electoral vote hurdle.
| The Electoral College Spectrum* | ||||
| HI-4 (7)** | ME-4 (157) | NH-4 (264/278) | ND-3 (158) | LA-9 (67) |
| VT-3 (10) | OR-7 (164) | CO-9*** (273/274) | MT-3 (155) | KY-8 (58) |
| RI-4 (14) | WA-11 (175) | VA-13 (286/265) | GA-15 (152) | KS-6 (50) |
| NY-31 (45) | IA-7 (182) | OH-20 (306/252) | MS-6 (137) | TN-11 (44) |
| MD-10 (55) | NJ-15 (197) | NV-5 (311/232) | AR-6 (131) | NE-5 (33) |
| DE-3 (58) | MN-10 (207) | FL-27 (338/227) | AK-3 (125) | AL-9 (28) |
| IL-21 (79) | WI-10 (217) | WV-5 (343/200) | TX-34 (122) | WY-3 (19) |
| CT-7 (86) | PA-21 (238) | MO-11 (354/195) | SC-8 (88) | ID-4 (16) |
| MA-12 (98) | NM-5 (243) | NC-15 (369/184) | AZ-10 (80) | OK-7 (12) |
| CA-55 (153) | MI-17 (260) | IN-11 (380/169) | SD-3 (70) | UT-5 (5) |
| *Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including New Hampshire (all Obama's toss up states), he would have 278 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***Colorado is the state where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. It is currently favoring Obama, thus the blue text in that cell. | ||||
As Scott pointed out in the comments to yesterday's post, that seems unlikely. But to win without sweeping the toss ups, McCain would have to pick up Pennsylvania. The Arizona senator could cede Colorado and Virginia to Obama, swing Ohio and Pennsylvania and only get to 268, which is obviously short of the goal. But pulling Nevada in as well, would get McCain over the top. Is Pennsylvania an attainable target though? That's the question. Recent polling does not give him much of a shot. The type of North Carolina and Ohio movement discussed above is not present in Pennsylvania. Whereas the the Tar Heel and Buckeye states peaked and settled into a new equilibrium below that peak point, Pennsylvania has bounced and plateaued in the lower double digits for Obama.
| The Watch List* | |||
| State | Switch | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Florida | from Toss Up McCain | to Toss Up Obama | |
| Indiana | from Toss Up McCain | to McCain lean | |
| Iowa | from Strong Obama | to Obama lean | |
| Michigan | from Obama lean | to Toss Up Obama | |
| Nevada | from Toss Up Obama | to Toss Up McCain | |
| New Hampshire | from Obama lean | to Toss Up Obama | |
| New Jersey | from Strong Obama | to Obama lean | |
| Ohio | from Toss Up Obama | to Toss Up McCain | |
| Oregon | from Strong Obama | to Obama lean | |
| Washington | from Strong Obama | to Obama lean | |
| *Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. | |||
The Keystone state isn't even on the Watch List. In fact, Pennsylvania is moving deeper into the Obama lean category with each new poll that is released. But the ten states above are on the list of states most likely to move in the event that new polling is released. And there is a lot of blue there. The lack of red of any shade again underlines that idea that the McCain side of things has solidified. The only thing left to settle is if those pink toss ups will shift toward Obama. Florida is the most likely at this point. To put the Florida situation in the terminology of a baseball pennant chase, the Sunshine state now has a magic number of 7. If a new poll were to give Obama a 7 point advantage, Florida would turn blue. That's down from 10 points before the Rasmussen poll was added in last night.
Just to be fair here, Nevada and Ohio are also close to changing sides. What are their respective magic numbers. McCain would need just a two point poll margin to shift Nevada to his side of the partisan line. Ohio, though, is a different story. We have much more data in the case of the Buckeye state, and thus a pretty good idea of how it is leaning. In other words, it, in all likelihood, takes more than just one poll to shift Ohio. If one poll were to do it, though, it would have to give McCain a 9 point edge. Given our discussion above -- about how Ohio had basically averaged one positive poll in the lower single digits for McCain recently -- that is very unlikely.
The story today is similar to what it was yesterday (and the day before and so on): McCain has to find a way to shift the race in his direction. The problem is that he is running out of time.
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/13/08)
A Follow-Up on ACORN
The Electoral College Map (10/12/08)
Sunday, October 12, 2008
The Electoral College Map (10/13/08)
A trio of new polls was released Sunday. All three were blue and all three did little to change the perception of the overall race or the race in each of the three states. Obama is clearly ahead in California, pulling away in Pennsylvania and has edged out in front in Nevada of late. Pennsylvania is looking increasingly difficult for McCain to seize and without the Keystone state, in addition to the Michigan pull out, the path to 270 has limited options. Even if Nevada were to shift back into McCain territory, it would do little more than a tamp down a runaway Obama victory in the electoral college. With just five electoral votes, Nevada isn't going to swing this election back in McCain's direction unless other states come with it. Namely, Colorado, Ohio and Virginia. But with each new poll, even those states seem difficult "gets" for the Arizona senator.
The three new polls, then, do nothing to change the dynamics of a race that has become rather static over the last week or so. Obama is ahead nationally and in most of the crucial battleground states, but with just one more debate between the two major party contenders, we have almost entered the "outside factors" phase of the race. In other words, it will take outside factors to disrupt the race in a way similar to the AIG/Lehman collapse to reshape the race at a time when both candidates will be making their closing arguments to voters.
[Click Map to Enlarge]
The survey data out today is moderately predictable. Both California and Nevada are within a couple of points of FHQ's weighted average in each. The Pennsylvania numbers from Muhlenberg are outside of that state's average, but when we consider just the polls over the last three weeks -- since the economic crisis became a crisis -- the margin seems far more understandable. All it really does is move Pennsylvania further into the blue and further away from McCain. In the end, none of the three polls does anything to shift any of the electoral votes between categories or between candidates. Obama remains ahead by 84 electoral votes, and nothing in recent polling indicates that margin will do anything but get larger.
Of course, that easier to say when you are trying to get through a terrifically slow weekend for polling. If anything, the new week should be welcomed with open arms simply because it is likely to bring an increase in the frequency of polling. The states below --unchanged from a day ago -- are the ones where changes in categories, or more importantly for our purposes, changes in who is ahead are the most likely to occur. Florida is tops on the list. And if we know anything about our measure here, it is that when and if the Sunshine state turns blue, it is likely there to stay. Even with all the past polls being discounted according to when they were released, our model is still on the conservative side. So when changes occur they are significant and overwhelmingly likely to hold.
I failed to go over the Electoral College Spectrum because it didn't shift at all from yesterday. The states in that middle column from Colorado down to Florida are where the real battle in this race is now. And McCain pretty much has to sweep all five to win. I say pretty much simply because there are other scenarios where McCain wins, but this one is the most likely. And the probability of that occurence is dropping with each passing day. 22 left to go.
Recent Posts:
A Follow-Up on ACORN
The Electoral College Map (10/12/08)
The Electoral College Map (10/11/08)
| New Polls (Oct. 12) | |||
| State | Poll | Margin | |
|---|---|---|---|
| California | Rasmussen | +16 | |
| Nevada | Mason-Dixon | +2 | |
| Pennsylvania | Muhlenberg College | +12 | |
The three new polls, then, do nothing to change the dynamics of a race that has become rather static over the last week or so. Obama is ahead nationally and in most of the crucial battleground states, but with just one more debate between the two major party contenders, we have almost entered the "outside factors" phase of the race. In other words, it will take outside factors to disrupt the race in a way similar to the AIG/Lehman collapse to reshape the race at a time when both candidates will be making their closing arguments to voters.
[Click Map to Enlarge]The survey data out today is moderately predictable. Both California and Nevada are within a couple of points of FHQ's weighted average in each. The Pennsylvania numbers from Muhlenberg are outside of that state's average, but when we consider just the polls over the last three weeks -- since the economic crisis became a crisis -- the margin seems far more understandable. All it really does is move Pennsylvania further into the blue and further away from McCain. In the end, none of the three polls does anything to shift any of the electoral votes between categories or between candidates. Obama remains ahead by 84 electoral votes, and nothing in recent polling indicates that margin will do anything but get larger.
| The Electoral College Spectrum* | ||||
| HI-4 (7)** | ME-4 (157) | NH-4 (264/278) | MT-3 (158) | LA-9 (67) |
| VT-3 (10) | WA-11 (168) | CO-9*** (273/274) | ND-3 (155) | KY-8 (58) |
| RI-4 (14) | IA-7 (175) | VA-13 (286/265) | GA-15 (152) | KS-6 (50) |
| MD-10 (24) | OR-7 (182) | OH-20 (306/252) | MS-6 (137) | TN-11 (44) |
| DE-3 (27) | NJ-15 (197) | NV-5 (311/232) | AR-6 (131) | NE-5 (33) |
| NY-31 (58) | MN-10 (207) | FL-27 (338/227) | AK-3 (125) | AL-9 (28) |
| IL-21 (79) | WI-10 (217) | WV-5 (343/200) | TX-34 (122) | WY-3 (19) |
| CT-7 (86) | PA-21 (238) | MO-11 (354/195) | SC-8 (88) | ID-4 (16) |
| MA-12 (98) | NM-5 (243) | NC-15 (369/184) | AZ-10 (80) | OK-7 (12) |
| CA-55 (153) | MI-17 (260) | IN-11 (380/169) | SD-3 (70) | UT-5 (5) |
| *Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including New Hampshire (all Obama's toss up states), he would have 278 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***Colorado is the state where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. It is currently favoring Obama, thus the blue text in that cell. | ||||
Of course, that easier to say when you are trying to get through a terrifically slow weekend for polling. If anything, the new week should be welcomed with open arms simply because it is likely to bring an increase in the frequency of polling. The states below --unchanged from a day ago -- are the ones where changes in categories, or more importantly for our purposes, changes in who is ahead are the most likely to occur. Florida is tops on the list. And if we know anything about our measure here, it is that when and if the Sunshine state turns blue, it is likely there to stay. Even with all the past polls being discounted according to when they were released, our model is still on the conservative side. So when changes occur they are significant and overwhelmingly likely to hold.
| The Watch List* | |||
| State | Switch | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Florida | from Toss Up McCain | to Toss Up Obama | |
| Georgia | from Strong McCain | to McCain lean | |
| Indiana | from Toss Up McCain | to McCain lean | |
| Iowa | from Strong Obama | to Obama lean | |
| Michigan | from Obama lean | to Toss Up Obama | |
| Nevada | from Toss Up Obama | to Toss Up McCain | |
| New Hampshire | from Obama lean | to Toss Up Obama | |
| New Jersey | from Obama lean | to Strong Obama | |
| North Dakota | from Strong McCain | to McCain lean | |
| Ohio | from Toss Up Obama | to Toss Up McCain | |
| Oregon | from Obama lean | to Strong Obama | |
| Washington | from Strong Obama | to Obama lean | |
| *Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. | |||
I failed to go over the Electoral College Spectrum because it didn't shift at all from yesterday. The states in that middle column from Colorado down to Florida are where the real battle in this race is now. And McCain pretty much has to sweep all five to win. I say pretty much simply because there are other scenarios where McCain wins, but this one is the most likely. And the probability of that occurence is dropping with each passing day. 22 left to go.
Recent Posts:
A Follow-Up on ACORN
The Electoral College Map (10/12/08)
The Electoral College Map (10/11/08)
A Follow-Up on ACORN
Earlier in the week I linked to a story on a raid of the Las Vegas office of ACORN. At issue was concern over voter registration irregularities. Some folks took issue with the way I chose to frame the way the story might be perceived. Speaking of framing, it seems that original story was lacking a vital part: ACORN's side of the story. As it turns out it was the ACORN folks who internally identified the people involved and turned them in. [Sadly, Project Vote's site is down right now. Not just that story; the whole site.] The Trail at the Washington Post added this:
H/t: Elections Update for the link.
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/12/08)
The Electoral College Map (10/11/08)
The Electoral College Map (10/10/08)
"ACORN officials said they were stunned by the search because they had unilaterally identified and flagged suspicious voter registration cards to the county elections board starting in July and had been cooperating with authorities to cull bad information and fire workers who collected that information, said Brian Mellor, senior counsel for Project Vote."In a close election this would probably be a bigger deal. [And it wasn't too long ago we were talking about this one being close.] Granted, Nevada is close, but the more that comes out about this particular ACORN situation and others, the more it seems like a drop in the bucket sort of scenario.
H/t: Elections Update for the link.
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/12/08)
The Electoral College Map (10/11/08)
The Electoral College Map (10/10/08)
Saturday, October 11, 2008
The Electoral College Map (10/12/08)
The big question of Saturday -- an otherwise slow polling day? Did that new Ohio poll from the University of Cincinnati pull the Buckeye state back into the group of McCain states? [What? You think I'm going to answer that one right away?] What has been established in Ohio -- post-Lehman -- has been a range of results between +8 for Obama to +2 for McCain. In this Cincinnati poll, then, we have a result at the extreme McCain end of that range in Ohio. If we simply take the average of the polls during the three week period since the economic situation began, Obama leads the Buckeye state by two and a half points. That's essentially, two points ahead of where FHQ's graduated weighted average currently has the state. Yes, that seems like Obama has a rather tenuous grasp on the Buckeye state. Well, he does, but it isn't perhaps as vulnerable as you might think.
John McCain would need a series of polls favoring him or one poll, given the current numbers, giving him an edge of five points to bring Ohio back across the partisan line. Yeah, that five point margin doesn't seem like much, but in light of the discussion above about the range of polls in Ohio recently, it does is probabalistically outside of the realm of possibility. One big burst for McCain appears unlikely and the Arizona senator is averaging a little over one positive poll a week in Ohio. In other words, a series of polls favoring McCain in Ohio also seems unlikely in the context of the current environment. It isn't as if McCain hasn't been trying, but somehow the McCain-Palin ticket has to find a way to change the dynamic of the race, if not nationally, then in a few toss up states that could make a difference. We'll discuss those states below with the Electoral College Spectrum.
Other than Ohio, the only other poll of note on Saturday was PPP's poll of Colorado. I don't want to give short shrift to Alabama and Delaware, but is anyone really surprised by either of those results? Both appear to be in the bag for their respective candidates. Colorado, though, is one of a handful of Bush states from 2004 that may turn blue in November. The more double digit leads polls give Obama in the Centennial state, the better the chances of that happening are. [Well, that meaning Colorado staying blue and switching parties from one presidential cycle to the next.] Like Ohio, though, this PPP poll is at the extreme end of the range of polling out of Colorado, but in this case toward Obama. The range of results in Colorado since the Lehman collapse is slightly wider than the one in Ohio, stretching from +10 for Obama to +3 for McCain. Both are outliers but each is basically equidistant from the average of all the polls over the last three weeks. At +4 for Obama, that average is right on the cut off between what FHQ considers a toss up and a lean state. [And would be safe after that line is moved down to 3 points later this coming week.] And that's indicative of the state of this race. If the Victory Line state -- the state where each candidate passes or would pass 270 electoral votes -- is four points into Obama territory that says something about the difficult position John McCain is in right now. For the record, that four points is the average of polls over the last three weeks -- an Obama period. Over the course of the race since Super Tuesday back in February, Obama holds an edge of nearly three points in our weighted average.
[Click Map to Enlarge]
The polls on Saturday didn't do much to move electoral votes on the map. In fact, for the second straight day, the map and the Electoral College Spectrum remain unchanged. Obama continues to hold 311-227 electoral vote advantage in the projected electoral college tally. And as I said above, it is incumbent upon the McCain campaign to shift the momentum, if not nationally, then in the handful of the closest states. That means going on the offensive in Colorado, Nevada, Ohio and Virginia and defending Florida and North Carolina. The catch for the McCain campaign is that there does not seem to be a silver bullet that hits all of those states at once. They have focused on Obama's judgment and character this past week, but that has not put a dent in the polling advantages that Obama has held, either nationally or on the state level. And with just one debate left, the opportunities for McCain to stem (and reverse) the tide are decreasing.
Finally, the Watch List stays the same today as well. As an extension of our target state/toss up state discussion, we should talk about the general trends in each. The momentum is squarely behind Obama in each of the states mentioned above. As such, Florida is the state to keep the closest eye on. The Sunshine state has continued to inch toward Obama over the course of the last couple of weeks. And as I said yesterday, continued pro-Obama polling will push Florida into the blue sooner rather than later. One poll would do it as well if that poll was +10 for Obama, but that is not as likely, but isn't necessarily outside of the realm of possibility.
As we head into a new week -- the week of the final presidential debate of 2008 -- the economy continues to dominate the news, but the McCain campaign has attempted to shift that discussion. And Congresman John Lewis has added another layer to this by comparing the McCain campaign's tactics over the last week to George Wallace's during the 1960s. That bombshell has reverberated around the Sunday morning shows this morning and is likely to be a topic of discussion during the first part of the week. The question now is whether that discussion sustains itself long enough to potentially work its way into the debate on Wednesday night. That is the domestic-themed debate and we have yet to see any discussion of race in these debates, much less the campaign. The Obama campaign has certainly attempted to steer clear of the issue, but it will interesting to see if it becomes a part of Wednesday's debate.
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/11/08)
The Electoral College Map (10/10/08)
Open Thread: An Obama Landslide: How Far Could It Go?
John McCain would need a series of polls favoring him or one poll, given the current numbers, giving him an edge of five points to bring Ohio back across the partisan line. Yeah, that five point margin doesn't seem like much, but in light of the discussion above about the range of polls in Ohio recently, it does is probabalistically outside of the realm of possibility. One big burst for McCain appears unlikely and the Arizona senator is averaging a little over one positive poll a week in Ohio. In other words, a series of polls favoring McCain in Ohio also seems unlikely in the context of the current environment. It isn't as if McCain hasn't been trying, but somehow the McCain-Palin ticket has to find a way to change the dynamic of the race, if not nationally, then in a few toss up states that could make a difference. We'll discuss those states below with the Electoral College Spectrum.
| New Polls (Oct. 11) | |||
| State | Poll | Margin | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | Survey USA | +27 | |
| Colorado | Public Policy Polling | +10 | |
| Delaware | West Chester Univ. | +17 | |
| Ohio | Univ. of Cincinnati | +2 | |
Other than Ohio, the only other poll of note on Saturday was PPP's poll of Colorado. I don't want to give short shrift to Alabama and Delaware, but is anyone really surprised by either of those results? Both appear to be in the bag for their respective candidates. Colorado, though, is one of a handful of Bush states from 2004 that may turn blue in November. The more double digit leads polls give Obama in the Centennial state, the better the chances of that happening are. [Well, that meaning Colorado staying blue and switching parties from one presidential cycle to the next.] Like Ohio, though, this PPP poll is at the extreme end of the range of polling out of Colorado, but in this case toward Obama. The range of results in Colorado since the Lehman collapse is slightly wider than the one in Ohio, stretching from +10 for Obama to +3 for McCain. Both are outliers but each is basically equidistant from the average of all the polls over the last three weeks. At +4 for Obama, that average is right on the cut off between what FHQ considers a toss up and a lean state. [And would be safe after that line is moved down to 3 points later this coming week.] And that's indicative of the state of this race. If the Victory Line state -- the state where each candidate passes or would pass 270 electoral votes -- is four points into Obama territory that says something about the difficult position John McCain is in right now. For the record, that four points is the average of polls over the last three weeks -- an Obama period. Over the course of the race since Super Tuesday back in February, Obama holds an edge of nearly three points in our weighted average.
[Click Map to Enlarge]The polls on Saturday didn't do much to move electoral votes on the map. In fact, for the second straight day, the map and the Electoral College Spectrum remain unchanged. Obama continues to hold 311-227 electoral vote advantage in the projected electoral college tally. And as I said above, it is incumbent upon the McCain campaign to shift the momentum, if not nationally, then in the handful of the closest states. That means going on the offensive in Colorado, Nevada, Ohio and Virginia and defending Florida and North Carolina. The catch for the McCain campaign is that there does not seem to be a silver bullet that hits all of those states at once. They have focused on Obama's judgment and character this past week, but that has not put a dent in the polling advantages that Obama has held, either nationally or on the state level. And with just one debate left, the opportunities for McCain to stem (and reverse) the tide are decreasing.
| The Electoral College Spectrum* | ||||
| HI-4 (7)** | ME-4 (157) | NH-4 (264/278) | MT-3 (158) | LA-9 (67) |
| VT-3 (10) | WA-11 (168) | CO-9*** (273/274) | ND-3 (155) | KY-8 (58) |
| RI-4 (14) | IA-7 (175) | VA-13 (286/265) | GA-15 (152) | KS-6 (50) |
| MD-10 (24) | OR-7 (182) | OH-20 (306/252) | MS-6 (137) | TN-11 (44) |
| DE-3 (27) | NJ-15 (197) | NV-5 (311/232) | AR-6 (131) | NE-5 (33) |
| NY-31 (58) | MN-10 (207) | FL-27 (338/227) | AK-3 (125) | AL-9 (28) |
| IL-21 (79) | WI-10 (217) | WV-5 (343/200) | TX-34 (122) | WY-3 (19) |
| CT-7 (86) | PA-21 (238) | MO-11 (354/195) | SC-8 (88) | ID-4 (16) |
| MA-12 (98) | NM-5 (243) | NC-15 (369/184) | AZ-10 (80) | OK-7 (12) |
| CA-55 (153) | MI-17 (260) | IN-11 (380/169) | SD-3 (70) | UT-5 (5) |
| *Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including New Hampshire (all Obama's toss up states), he would have 278 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***Colorado is the state where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. It is currently favoring Obama, thus the blue text in that cell. | ||||
Finally, the Watch List stays the same today as well. As an extension of our target state/toss up state discussion, we should talk about the general trends in each. The momentum is squarely behind Obama in each of the states mentioned above. As such, Florida is the state to keep the closest eye on. The Sunshine state has continued to inch toward Obama over the course of the last couple of weeks. And as I said yesterday, continued pro-Obama polling will push Florida into the blue sooner rather than later. One poll would do it as well if that poll was +10 for Obama, but that is not as likely, but isn't necessarily outside of the realm of possibility.
| The Watch List* | |||
| State | Switch | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Florida | from Toss Up McCain | to Toss Up Obama | |
| Georgia | from Strong McCain | to McCain lean | |
| Indiana | from Toss Up McCain | to McCain lean | |
| Iowa | from Strong Obama | to Obama lean | |
| Michigan | from Obama lean | to Toss Up Obama | |
| Nevada | from Toss Up Obama | to Toss Up McCain | |
| New Hampshire | from Obama lean | to Toss Up Obama | |
| New Jersey | from Obama lean | to Strong Obama | |
| North Dakota | from Strong McCain | to McCain lean | |
| Ohio | from Toss Up Obama | to Toss Up McCain | |
| Oregon | from Obama lean | to Strong Obama | |
| Washington | from Strong Obama | to Obama lean | |
| *Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. | |||
As we head into a new week -- the week of the final presidential debate of 2008 -- the economy continues to dominate the news, but the McCain campaign has attempted to shift that discussion. And Congresman John Lewis has added another layer to this by comparing the McCain campaign's tactics over the last week to George Wallace's during the 1960s. That bombshell has reverberated around the Sunday morning shows this morning and is likely to be a topic of discussion during the first part of the week. The question now is whether that discussion sustains itself long enough to potentially work its way into the debate on Wednesday night. That is the domestic-themed debate and we have yet to see any discussion of race in these debates, much less the campaign. The Obama campaign has certainly attempted to steer clear of the issue, but it will interesting to see if it becomes a part of Wednesday's debate.
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/11/08)
The Electoral College Map (10/10/08)
Open Thread: An Obama Landslide: How Far Could It Go?
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