The Electoral College Map (10/4/12)

Anticipating the debates, most firms had already weighed in with pre-debate polls setting various state-level baselines for both candidates. That means that for a Thursday there just weren't that many new polls floating around. But there were a handful.

New State Polls (10/4/12)
State	Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Obama	Romney	Undecided	Poll Margin	FHQ Margin
Connecticut	Quinnipiac	9/28-10/2	+/- 2.4%	1696 likely voters	54	42	4	+12	+12.20
Hawaii	Merriman River Group/Civil Beat	9/26-9/28	+/- 2.4%	1648 likely voters	62	30	6	+32	+26.25
Missouri	Rasmussen	10/2	+/- 4.5%	500 likely voters	46	49	3	+3	+6.72

Polling Quick Hits:
Connecticut:
Again, the Nutmeg state enjoyed a period of time where it looks as if the poll margins were closing into the upper single digits, but that has since slipped back into the lower double digit range. And the latest Quinnipiac poll of Connecticut confirms that. The previous Q poll was an example of a narrower gap -- just before the Republican convention -- and this latest poll shows that margin back up at the 12 point level; right around the overall FHQ weighted average margin.

Hawaii:
Hawaii makes the second deeply blue state without any 2012 polling data to have a survey released this week. [Rhode Island was the other.] Like Rhode Island, there isn't really any suspense in the Aloha state. Obama's home state is still safely blue for the president even if the gap between the candidates in this poll is slightly lower than where the 2008 election results were.

Missouri:
I don't know that a Romney +3 in Missouri is all that surprising, but the Show Me state has never really felt like a 2012 toss up state at any point this year. However, recent polling seems to be suggesting that +3 is the lower bound of the range of polling results; a bit of a best case/worst case scenario for Obama or Romney, respectively. For the sake of context, the Romney share of support in this poll is right on his FHQ average there while Obama's is slightly overstated as compared to the same metric.

There were very few polls today and not surprisingly that offered little in the way of opportunity to see changes to the map (and resultant electoral vote tally) or the Electoral College Spectrum. The map remains unchanged as compared to a day ago and the Spectrum saw only Hawaii move; jumping both New York and Rhode Island to a spot deep into the Obama column.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
VT-3 (6)2	WA-12 (158)	NV-6 (257)	AZ-11 (167)	ND-3 (55)
HI-4 (10)	NJ-14 (172)	OH-183 (275/281)	MT-3 (156)	KY-8 (52)
RI-4 (14)	CT-7 (179)	VA-13 (288/263)	IN-11 (153)	AL-9 (44)
NY-29 (43)	NM-5 (184)	IA-6 (294/250)	GA-16 (142)	KS-6 (35)
MD-10 (53)	MN-10 (194)	CO-9 (303/244)	SC-9 (126)	AR-6 (29)
MA-11 (64)	OR-7 (201)	FL-29 (332/235)	LA-8 (117)	AK-3 (23)
IL-20 (84)	PA-20 (221)	NC-15 (206)	NE-5 (109)	OK-7 (20)
CA-55 (139)	MI-16 (237)	SD-3 (191)	TX-38 (104)	ID-4 (13)
DE-3 (142)	WI-10 (247)	MO-10 (188)	WV-5 (66)	WY-3 (9)
ME-4 (146)	NH-4 (251)	TN-11 (178)	MS-6 (61)	UT-6 (6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 281 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics. 3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

The same principle applies to the Watch List. None of the seven states on the list had new polling information released and none of three states with new survey data were all that close to the cutpoints to put them on the list. The status quo wins out as we await some post-debate data.

The Watch List1
State	Switch
Indiana	from Strong Romney	to Lean Romney
Iowa	from Toss Up Obama	to Lean Obama
Minnesota	from Strong Obama	to Lean Obama
Montana	from Strong Romney	to Lean Romney
Nevada	from Lean Obama	to Toss Up Obama
Ohio	from Toss Up Obama	to Lean Obama
Virginia	from Toss Up Obama	to Lean Obama
1 The Watch list shows those states in the FHQ Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. The List is not a trend analysis. It indicates which states are straddling the line between categories and which states are most likely to shift given the introduction of new polling data. Nevada, for example, is close to being a Toss Up Obama state, but the trajectory of the polling there has been moving the state away from that toss up distinction.

Please see:

Frequently Asked Questions about FHQ graduated weighted average methodology.
&
An Update on how to read it in 2012.

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Race to 1144: Southern Tuesday/Puerto Rico

Source:
Contest Delegates (via contest results and rules, and RNC, Georgia Secretary of State)
Automatic Delegates (Democratic Convention Watch)

Delegate breakdown (post-Southern Tuesday, Puerto Rico):


Notes:
1) The allocation of the delegates in Georgia is based on the most recent vote returns published online by the office of the Georgia Secretary of State. The allocation here differs from the RNC allocation in Georgia. The above grants Gingrich two additional delegates (which have been taken from Romney's total).

2) The Alabama primary results by congressional district have not been released by the Alabama Republican Party. The allocation above is based on the RNC interpretation of the allocation.

3)  Iowa Republican Party Chairman Spiker was a part of the Paul campaign in Iowa and resigned his position upon taking up the post of party chair. While he has expressed his intent to side with whomever the Republican nominee will be, Spiker has not also directly signaled any neutrality in the race. The door is open for his support of Paul at a potential contested convention. While FHQ includes Spiker in Paul's delegate total, it is necessary to make note of the possible future subtraction of one delegate that would bring the Texas congressman's total to 26.


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2012 Republican Delegate Allocation: Hawaii

This is the twenty-third in a multipart series of posts that will examine the Republican delegate allocation by state.¹ The main goal of this exercise is to assess the rules for 2012 -- especially relative to 2008 -- in order to gauge the impact the changes to the rules along the winner-take-all/proportionality spectrum may have on the race for the Republican nomination. As FHQ has argued in the past, this has often been cast as a black and white change. That the RNC has winner-take-all rules and the Democrats have proportional rules. Beyond that, the changes have been wrongly interpreted in a great many cases as having made a 180º change from straight winner-take-all to straight proportional rules in all pre-April 1 primary and caucus states. That is not the case. 

The new requirement has been adopted in a number of different ways across the states. Some have moved to a conditional system where winner-take-all allocation is dependent upon one candidate receiving 50% or more of the vote and others have responded by making just the usually small sliver of a state's delegate apportionment from the national party -- at-large delegates -- proportional as mandated by the party. Those are just two examples. There are other variations in between that also allow state parties to comply with the rules. FHQ has long argued that the effect of this change would be to lengthen the process. However, the extent of the changes from four years ago is not as great as has been interpreted and points to the spacing of the 2012 primary calendar -- and how that interacts with the ongoing campaign -- being a much larger factor in the accumulation of delegates (Again, especially relative to the 2008 calendar).

For links to the other states' plans see the Republican Delegate Selection Plans by State section in the left sidebar under the calendar.


HAWAII

Hawaii, like Mississippi, is another state where the RNC memo on state-by-state delegate allocation is somewhat misleading. At the very least, that December memo left several things unsaid while making it appear as if Hawaii was a state that allocates its delegates proportionally. The Aloha Republicans do use a proportional forumla, but with some caveats.

Hawaii delegate breakdown:

• 20 total delegates
• 11 at-large delegates
• 6 congressional district delegates
• 3 automatic delegates

Right off the bat, FHQ should note a couple of things:

1. There is no conditionality to the allocation of the delegates in Hawaii. Even if one candidate receives a majority of the vote, the delegate allocation will remain proportional.
2. Though the RNC memo cited above indicates that there is a 15% threshold for receiving delegates, there is nothing in the Hawaii rules on delegate allocation signaling that that is in fact the case.² With the threshold the allocation looks a lot like Mississippi. Without the threshold, Hawaii looks like a cross between Mississippi (congressional district delegates) and Alaska (proportional caucus state with no threshold).  

At-large allocation: With the above notes in mind, the allocation of the 11 at-large delegates will either be proportional to all candidates or proportional to all candidates over 15% of the vote statewide. That distinction may make some differences but only at the margins and mostly only for any candidate(s) who does (do) not receive over 15% of the vote. Plus, all that we are really talking about here is 11 delegates divided up among two or three or four candidates. The key to remember here is that the allocation is done in descending order starting with the top vote-getter and moving down the line. In other words, the statewide winner will have his delegate total rounded up to the nearest whole number and so on until all of the delegates are allocated. For example (alphabetically) we could simulate the delegate allocation based on the following results (assuming no 15% threshold)³:

Vote Share:
Gingrich: 27%
Paul: 26%
Romney: 24%
Santorum: 23%

Delegates:
Gingrich: 2.97
Paul: 2.86
Romney: 2.64
Santorum: 2.53

This ends up being a nice, fictitious example because all of the candidates would theoretically round up to three delegates. But there are not 12 at-large delegates to allocate; only 11. Again, in descending order, then, Gingrich would round up to three delegates, then Paul would round up to three delegates, then Romney would round up to three delegates and Santorum would receive the final two delegates available. In that scenario, despite being above half a delegate, Santorum could not round up to the next highest number according to the Hawaii rules.

Congressional district allocation: As is the case in most states, there are three delegates apportioned to each of the two congressional districts in Hawaii. Those three delegates will be allocated proportionally as well. But recall that it is unclear whether there is a 15% threshold in place in Hawaii. That matters at the margins here because depending on how many candidates surpass that barrier, it may make the the difference between some candidate receiving delegates or not. [But it appears that there is no threshold. See note 3 below.] This means that unless a candidate receives a majority of the votes within a congressional district, then no one will receive over one delegate per congressional district. In other words, if no one is over 50% then the top three vote-getters will be allocated one delegate each. If a candidate is able to get a majority on the congressional district level, then their delegate total will round up to two delegates. But at the end of the day, all we're talking about are 6 delegates. No one is likely to take a huge margin out of these districts, much less the entire state, without a fairly broad victory.

Automatic delegate allocation: All three Hawaii automatic delegates are unbound and unaffected by tonight's results. They are all free to endorse or pledge to whichever candidate they choose.

--
¹ FHQ would say 50 part, but that doesn't count the territories and Washington, DC.

² Hawaii Republican Party delegate selection rules (sections 214-216):
Hawaii Republican Party Rules-2011
³ A new RNC blog post out this afternoon seems to indicate that there is no 15% threshold for wither at-large or congressional district delegates.

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Housekeeping: Hawaii Democrats to Caucus on March 7

[Click to Enlarge]

The Hawaii Democratic Party has amended their 2012 delegate selection plan based on the comments the party received as part of the public comment period for the initial draft. Originally, the plan called for precinct caucuses to take place on Saturday, April 7, 2012, but that date, as was pointed out in some of the comments, conflicts with Passover and Easter weekend, thus preventing a number of party members from attending.

According to documents posted by the Democratic Party of Hawaii, the precinct caucuses were moved up to Wednesday, March 7, 2012 to avoid that problem. The DPH State Central Committee voted on the change -- after submission of the plan to the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee -- during its meeting in early June.

The party confirmed to FHQ by phone on Tuesday afternoon that the Wednesday caucuses are accurate. It is rare for caucuses to be held on days other than Tuesday or over the weekend.

Find FHQ's updated 2012 presidential primary calendar here.

Hat tip to Tony Roza at The Green Papers for bringing this to our attention.

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Hawaii GOP Moves Caucuses to March 13

On Saturday, May 14, Hawaii Republicans at their 2011 state convention adopted a series of rules changes. One of those changes was to shift the previously-moved (to February from May) caucuses back to the second Tuesday in March. The primary motivation for the move was to bring the state party's delegate selection process into compliance with the national party rule prohibiting primaries and caucuses -- other than Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina -- from being held earlier than the first Tuesday in March. As was mentioned over the weekend prior to the convention adopting the rules change, this date putsHawaii Republicans on the same day as Mississippi and Utah Democrats and a week after the earliest allowed calendar position (where most Republican-controlled states are clustering).

[See more on the move at Hawaii Free Press.]

[Click to Enlarge]

Hawaii Democrats indicated earlier in April in the draft of their 2012 delegate selection plan that they plan to hold caucuses on April 7.

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Moving Caucuses to March on the Rules Changes Agenda at Hawaii GOP Convention

The Republican Party of Hawaii is holding its annual state convention this weekend and on the agenda is a rules change regarding the selection of delegates to the Republican National Convention in Tampa next year. Previously, the party had opted to abandon the May state convention as the primary means of allocating delegates in favor of earlier precinct caucuses. When that decision was made back in 2009, the party had chosen the third Tuesday in February -- to coincide with Hawaii Democrats' 2008 caucus date -- for those caucuses. In the time since, however, the Republican delegate selection rules for 2012 have made that date a violation, and now the state party's convention agenda has a move to March as part of the proceedings.

According to the second paragraph of Part D (Delegates to the National Republican Convention), Section 214 (Election):

Hawaii Republican caucuses shall be held on the second Tuesday in March of each Presidential Election Year.

Currently, only Mississippi and Utah's Democratic caucuses are scheduled on the date a week after the proposed Super Tuesday (earliest possible date to hold contests according to the national party rules, and when the largest group of states typically clusters) on March 6.

The Hawaii Republican Party becomes the first party in a traditional Republican caucus state to make any overt move toward scheduling its 2012 delegate selection event. Republican state parties are not faced with the same deadline to submit delegate selection plan drafts to the national party as is the case on the Democratic side. That May 2 deadline is what has provided FHQ with the bulk of the Democratic caucus dates for 2012. Absent that deadline on the Republican side, state parties have been slower to act. But Hawaii has likely become the first to act.

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Hawaii Democrats Zero in on April 7 Precinct Caucuses for 2012

With the release of their draft delegate selection plan this week, Hawaii Democrats, like their brethren in Wyoming, tentatively selected April 7 as the date of the first determining step of their delegate selection process. Those precinct caucuses will kick off a process that will end with the selection of national convention delegates at the Hawaii Democratic convention on May 26, 2012. In 2008, the precinct caucuses in Hawaii took place on February 19. The move, assuming approval from the Democratic Rules and Bylaws Committee, would bring Hawaii Democrats into compliance with the DNC's delegate selection rules and would bring with it bonus delegates (10% of the delegate total for the April 1-30 period). Again, as was the case with the Wyoming Democratic Party plan, there is no conflict with the national party rules on the timing of the contest. As such, unless there is another violation embedded in the plan, it should meet the committee's approval.

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Hawaii Republicans Adopt Caucus System, Set Date for 2012

Over the weekend, Hawaii Republicans at their annual convention voted down the convention system they have used for allocating Republican presidential nomination delegates in favor of a caucus system. In the process, Aloha state Republicans scheduled the 2012 caucuses for third Tuesday in February. That would bring the contest in line with where Hawaii Democrats held their caucuses during the 2004 and 2008 cycles.

Now, this is a tentative date at this point. There were two proposals that could have been on the table at the state convention. The caucus plan obviously, but there was also a plan for a closed primary that passed the county convention stage but was withheld by the Rules Committee for the Hawaii GOP. The latter plan may come up at a convention in the future and change the date of the GOP's delegate selection event in the Aloha state. However, we can pencil the Hawaii GOP caucuses in for February 21, 2012 until such a time.

This move makes Hawaii the first state to frontload a presidential nomination contest for 2012. And it is funny: Arkansas and Hawaii, for all intents and purposes, switched places on the calendar. Arkansas moved from February to May and Hawaii's GOP shifted from May to February.

NOTE: 2012 Primary Calendar update coming later in the day.


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